Tag: finance

Submitted by Mike Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

It’s been a couple months since I last updated readers on the epic disaster that is Obamacare. In case you need a refresher, here is the last article I published on the law: Computer Security Expert Claims he Hacked the ObamaCare Website in 4 Minutes.

Moving along, we now have some details on the average premium increase for non-Obamacare health plans following the implementation of the law, and the results are not pretty. According to a cost report from eHealthInsurance, premiums have increased by between 39%-56%.

More from The Washington Examiner:

Americans buying health insurance outside the new Obamacare exchanges are being forced to swallow premiums up to 56 percent higher than before the health law took effect because insurers have jumped the cost to cover all the added features of the new Affordable Care Act.

 

According to a cost report from eHealthInsurance, a nationwide online private insurance exchange, families are paying an average of $663 a month and singles $274 a month, far more than before Obamacare kicked in. What’s more, to save money, most buyers are choosing the lowest level of coverage, the so-called “bronze” plans.

 

In California, for example, some families are paying a high of $2,604 a month and in New York, $1,845.

 

His firm’s price index also gives an average age for singles buying plans, and the results are worrying for insurers and the Obama administration. That’s because the average age is 36, older than the administration had hoped for.

The demographic issue is a huge ticking time bomb, something I previously highlighted in my piece: Humana Warns of “‘Adverse ObamaCare Enrollment Mix.”

Moving along, while we are well aware of the financial disaster Obamacare represents for those not participating, what about those who are in (or at least think they are in) the program?

Let’s look at the story of one Las Vegas man who paid his Obamacare premiums since November yet remains uncovered and now has a $407,000 hospital bill nobody is covering.

From the Review Journal:

The hospital bills are hitting Larry Basich’s mailbox.

 

That would be OK if Basich had health insurance. But he doesn’t.

 

Thing is, he should be covered. Basich, 62, bought a plan through the state’s Nevada Health Link insurance exchange in the fall. He’s been paying monthly premiums since November.

 

Yet the Las Vegan is stranded in a no-man’s-land where no carrier claims him, and his tab is mounting: Basich owes $407,000 for care received in January and February, when his policy was supposed to be in effect. Instead, he’s covered only for March and beyond.

 

Basich has begged for weeks for help from the exchange and its contractor, Xerox. But Basich’s insurance broker said Xerox seems more interested in lawyering up and covering its hide than in working out Basich’s problems. Nor is Basich the only client facing plan-selection errors through the exchange, she added.

 

Weeks ticked by, but Basich received nothing to confirm he had insurance. Nevada Health Link kept telling him he was enrolled, but UnitedHealthcare said he wasn’t in their system.

 

Basich’s predicament went critical on Dec. 31, when he had a heart attack. His treatment, which included a triple bypass on Jan. 3, resulted in $407,000 in medical bills in January and February that no insurer is covering.

 

Though Basich’s problem is exceptional for its dollar value, his situation is not unusual, Burch said. She estimates that of nearly 200 Branch Benefits Consultants client sign ups via Nevada Health Link, only 5 percent have gone through problem-free. More than 20 customers have the same plan-selection issue as Basich. One gave up trying to fix it and is sticking with the plan the exchange put her in.

Serfs up suckers!

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1j4N6wU Tyler Durden

Concerns about Fed "over-optimism" admissions and shortening the time from taper to rate-hike sparked a major algo-surging risk-off dump in US equities… but that 1% dip was bought with hands and feet as reassuring figures emerged on screens to pat traders heads gently. Stocks bounced but then faded into the close as Yellen's first press conference saw the worst market performance since Bernanke's May Taper hint. Bonds had a bad day… massive bear-flattening occurred on the release with 5s30s -12bps (5Y +16.5bps, 30Y +4.5bps) to 19-month lows. The USD was smashed 0.75% higher – its biggest gain in 7-months. Gold (and silver) dropped (down 4% on the week) as copper short-squeezed up to key resistance after early significant weakness.

 

The S&P 500 tracked AUDJPY through all the excitement…

 

The reaction in stocks is full of confusion – initial weakness which recovered quickly, then a plunge on over-confidence and rat-hike-period comments… which were then bid…

 

With financials outperforming in the sell-off (but yield curves flattened dramatically!!?)

 

Treasury yields soared (led by the short-end)

 

As the Treasury curve flattened dramatically… the biggest single-day flattening since Sept 2011

.

 

USD Index screamed 0.75% higher…

 

Gold and silver slipped as copper ripped

 

In summary – Bonds Dumped And Dollar Pumped As Stocks Stumble On Yellen Mumble

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Copper WTF Chart of the day…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1d0W6k1 Tyler Durden

From Jan Hatzius, who needs to coach Yellen much better next time around. Incidentally, this is Goldman’s take on the statement and not on Yellen’s disastrous press conference. 

From Goldman Sachs

BOTTOM LINE: The March Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) indicated a more hawkish path of the policy rate than that seen in the December SEP. The statement included a move toward qualitative guidance, but was roughly neutral on net in our view.

MAIN POINTS:

1. The median participant’s forecast for the funds rate (the “dots”) remained at 0.13% at end-2014, but rose 25bp to 1.0% at end-2015 and rose 50bp to 2.25% at end-2016. The median projection for the longer-run rate remained 4.0%. Only two participants expected that the first hike would come in 2016, down from three in December.

2. The Committee adopted qualitative forward guidance by stating that it currently anticipates the fed funds rate to remain in the current 0 to 25 basis point range “for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends, especially if projected inflation continues to run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run goal, and provided that longer-term inflation expectations remain well anchored.” Looking further ahead, the statement indicated that “even after employment and inflation are near mandate-consistent levels, economic conditions may, for some time, warrant keeping the target federal funds rate below levels the Committee views as normal in the longer run.” In addition, the statement said that “the change in guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee’s policy intentions as set forth in recent statements.” We see this set of outcomes on the forward guidance as relatively neutral.

3. The assessment of economic conditions noted slower activity in recent months, but partly blamed the weakness on “adverse weather conditions.” The assessment of household spending and business fixed investment was changed from “has advanced more quickly” to “continued to advance.” The description of inflation and inflation expectations was unchanged.

4. As overwhelmingly expected, the Committee continued to taper the pace of its asset purchases by $10bn to $55bn/month, beginning in April. An accompanying statement on the New York Fed website indicated no other changes to operating parameters.

5. Minneapolis Fed President Kocherlakota lodged a dovish dissent, noting that the Committee did not express its commitment to return inflation to the 2 percent target strongly enough.

6. With regard to participants’ economic projections, the mid-point of the central tendency of the unemployment rate was lowered by 0.25pp to 6.2% in 2014Q4, by 0.2pp to 5.75% in 2015Q4, and by 0.15pp to 5.4% in 2016Q4. In addition, the longer-run or “structural” unemployment rate was lowered 0.1pp to 5.4%. Real GDP growth was lowered to 2.9% in 2014, 3.1% in 2015, 2.75% in 2016, and 2.25% in the longer run. Changes to core and headline PCE inflation projections were minor. The core PCE inflation projection remained at 1.5% at end-2014, rose a touch to 1.85% at end-2015, and remained at 1.9% at end-2016.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/OCtYsj Tyler Durden

.

 

Zach has been questioning Putz
This type of session takes guts
It just as Zach feared
His answers are weird
And prove that Obama is nuts
The Limerick King

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/OxGf1u williambanzai7

“Miss me yet?”

“That will be $250,000 for the first 60 minutes, and $250,000 for every subsequent 60 minutes.”

Why disastrous? Here is the statement that sent stocks reeling:

“So the language that we used in the statement is considerable period. So I, you know, this is the kind of term it’s hard to define. But, you know, probably means something on the order of around six months, that type of thing.”

Everything else was just Yellen rereading James Joyce’s Ulysses. The key points from Bloomberg:

*YELLEN: CHANGE IN FED GUIDANCE IS NO CHANGE IN POLICY INTENT
*YELLEN SAYS SPENDING, PRODUCTION DATA IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS
*YELLEN SAYS LABOR MARKET CONTINUES TO IMPROVE
*YELLEN SAYS FINANCIAL CONDITIONS CONSISTENT WITH FOMC AIMS
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC EXPECTS INFLATION TO MOVE GRADUALLY TOWARD 2%
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC TO ENSURE POLICY CONSISTENT WITH DUAL MANDATE
*YELLEN REITERATES FED ASSETS TO CONTINUE TO EXPAND
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC DECISION CONSISTENT WITH PRIOR STATEMENTS
*YELLEN REITERATES QE IS `NOT ON A PRESET COURSE’
*YELLEN REITERATES QE FUTURE HINGES ON PERFORMANCE OF ECONOMY
*YELLEN SAYS LABOR MARKET IMPROVEMENT FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED
*YELLEN SAYS FED GUIDANCE BETTER REFLECTS CURRENT CONDITIONS
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC TO BASE ASSESSMENT ON WIDE RANGE OF DATA
*YELLEN SAYS RATE LIKELY TO STAY LOW FOR LONG AFTER QE ENDS
*YELLEN: FOMC WILL TAKE `BALANCED APPROACH’ ON MANDATES ON EXIT
*YELLEN SAYS MANY ON FOMC SEE `RESIDUAL IMPACT’ OF CRISIS
*YELLEN SAYS MUCH NEEDS TO BE DONE ON JOBS, INFLATION
*YELLEN REITERATES NEED FOR `HIGHLY ACCOMMODATIVE POLICY’
*YELLEN SAYS FORWARD GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EFFECTIVE
*YELLEN SAYS FORWARD GUIDANCE HAS `VERY USEFUL IMPACT’
*YELLEN SAYS GUIDANCE CHANGE WILL PROVIDE MORE INFORMATION
*YELLEN SAYS GUIDANCE WILL BE QUALITATIVE
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC `NOT CLOSE’ TO ACHIEVING FULL EMPLOYMENT
*YELLEN: FOMC TO LOOK AT `MANY MORE THINGS’ THAN JOBLESS RATE
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC FULLY COMMITTED TO 2% INFLATION OBJECTIVE
*YELLEN SAYS INFLATION LIKELY TO GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD 2%
*YELLEN: FOMC ASSESSMENT OF ECONOMY ALMOST IDENTICAL TO DECEMBER
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC STATEMENT PRIMARY FORM OF GUIDANCE
*YELLEN REITERATES NEXT FALL LIKELY TIME FOR ENDING QE
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC FORECAST `DOTS’ WILL FLUCTUATE
*YELLEN SEES NEED NOT TO READ TOO MUCH INTO FOMC FORECAST `DOTS’
*YELLEN SEES POSSIBILITY FOR `SHALLOWER GLIDE PATH’ FOR RATE
*YELLEN SAYS GROWTH HAS BEEN DISAPPOINTING FOR MANY YEARS
*YELLEN SAYS MANY FOMC PARTICIPANTS SEE HEADWINDS FROM CRISIS
*YELLEN: UNDERWATER MORTGAGES, FISCAL POLICY GROWTH OBSTACLES
*YELLEN SAYS PATH TO `NORMAL’ INTEREST RATES MAY BE GRADUAL
*YELLEN SAYS WEATHER HAS WEAKENED ECONOMY IN FIRST QUARTER
*YELLEN SAYS MOST ON FOMC SEE WEATHER WEAKNESS DISSIPATING
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC PROBABLY `OVER-DID’ OPTIMISM IN JANUARY
*YELLEN SAYS `THE BUCK STOPS WITH ME’ ON POLICY
*YELLEN SAYS SHE `KEENLY’ FEELS `WEIGHT OF RESPONSIBILITY’
*YELLEN SEES NO `RADICAL CHANGES’ IN FED OPERATIONS
*YELLEN: FOMC HASN’T FACED TRADE-OFF ON INFLATION, EMPLOYMENT
*YELLEN:FOMC EVENTUALLY MAY FACE TRADE-OFF ON PRICES, EMPLOYMENT
*YELLEN:SEES CONSIDERABLE PERIOD BETWEEN QE END, FIRST RATE RISE
*YELLEN SAYS FIRST MAIN RATE INCREASE WILL HINGE ON ECONOMY
*YELLEN SAYS INFLATION CONSISTENTLY BELOW 2% WARRANTS LOW RATE
*YELLEN SAYS QE TAPER DEPENDS ON IMPROVEMENT IN LABOR MARKET
*YELLEN: QE TAPER NEEDS EVIDENCE INFLATION MOVING UP `OVER TIME’
*YELLEN REITERATES SHE LOOKS AT SEVERAL GAUGES OF LABOR MARKET
*YELLEN SAYS LONG TERM UNEMPLOYMENT BEEN `EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH’
*YELLEN SEES CYCLICAL COMPONENT IN FALLING LABOR PARTICIPATION
*YELLEN SAYS SHE ALSO TRACKS LABOR MARKET TURNOVER
*YELLEN SAYS `QUIT RATES’ BELOW PRE-RECESSION LEVEL
*YELLEN SAYS HIRES RATE IN LABOR MARKET IS EXTREMELY DEPRESSED
*YELLEN SAYS `HIRES RATE’ ALSO `EXTREMELY DEPRESSED’
*YELLEN SAYS WAGE GROWTH HAS BEEN VERY LOW
*YELLEN SAYS WAGE INFLATION BELOW NORMAL AT 2%
*YELLEN SAYS U.S. `LIVED THROUGH A DEVASTATING FINANCIAL CRISIS’
*YELLEN SAYS CRISIS TOOK A HIGH TOLL ON U.S. CITIZENS
*YELLEN SAYS CRISIS MADE BUSINESSES VERY CAUTIOUS
*YELLEN SAYS FISCAL POLICY HAS POSED HEADWIND TO RECOVERY
*YELLEN SAYS FED WILL TRY TO COMMUNICATE CLEARLY ON POLICY
*YELLEN SAYS RECOVERY HAS BEEN `DISAPPOINTING’
*YELLEN SAYS FED WILL TRY TO BE STEADY, TRANSPARENT ON POLICY
*YELLEN: FED WILL TRY NOT TO BE CAUSE OF MARKET INSTABILITY
*YELLEN SAYS RATE OF HOUSEHOLD FORMATION BEEN `VERY DEPRESSED’
*YELLEN EXPECTS HOUSING ACTIVITY TO PICK UP `LATER ON’
*YELLEN SAYS FOMC `COMMITTED TO THE SAME SET OF GOALS’
*YELLEN SAYS STRENGTHENING FINANCIAL SYSTEM WORK IN PROGRESS
*YELLEN SAYS `HIGH PRIORITY’ TO RESOLVE `TOO BIG TO FAIL’
*YELLEN SAYS IMPORTANT TO ASSESS ANY POTENTIAL STABILITY THREATS
*YELLEN SAYS BERNANKE HAD GOOD AGENDA, IT’S ONE SHE SHARES
*YELLEN SAYS SHE SHARES AGENDA PURSUED BY BERNANKE
*YELLEN SAYS DIRECT BANKING LINKS TO RUSSIA, UKRAINE NOT LARGE
*YELLEN SAYS FED MONITORING VERY CLOSELY UKRAINE CRISIS
*YELLEN DOESN’T SEE GLOBAL FINANCIAL REPURCUSSIONS FROM UKRAINE
*YELLEN NOT SEEING BROADER GLOBAL FINANCIAL IMPACT OF UKRAINE

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/OxGd9I Tyler Durden

Wondering why stocks aren’t soaring – despite the efforts of every asset-getherer and TV talking head to explain how the Fed is as dovish (if not more dovish) than ever? Perhaps the answer lies in the following table… when the fed admits to being “over-optimistic”, maybe there just aren’t enough people at 33 Liberty to push the green buttons…

 

Not many “green” Bloomberg terminals at the NYFed

 

and their colleagues in Washington are all “at play” while the lead cat is “away”

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gQNPuA Tyler Durden

One just can’t make this up:

• YELLEN SAYS WEATHER HAS WEAKENED ECONOMY IN FIRST QUARTER
• YELLEN SAYS MOST ON FOMC SEE WEATHER WEAKNESS DISSIPATING

Luckily, the Fed is far better at forecasting the weather than it is at micromanaging central planning of a $17 trillion economy.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1gQNM1X Tyler Durden

Today’s AM fix was USD 1,346.00, EUR 967.16 and GBP 809.72 per ounce.  

Yesterday’s AM fix was USD 1,362.50, EUR 979.37 and GBP 820.49 per ounce.      

Gold extended losses to a third session today. Gold has fallen from the six month high of $1,391.76, touched earlier this week on the deteriorating geo-political situation between Russia and the West. Traders have taken profits as tensions have eased somewhat, in the short term at least.

Gold should be supported by the deterioration in relations between the U.S. and Russia. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry that Western sanctions over the Crimea dispute were “unacceptable” and “will not remain without consequences.”

 

Putin said he did not plan to seize any other part of Ukraine, and Kerry later cautioned that any incursion into other parts of Ukraine would be an “egregious step” and a major challenge for the international community. Geopolitical risk shows the importance of owning gold as a hedging instrument and safe haven diversification.

Traders may have been hesitant to go long gold, ahead of the meeting of the Federal Reserve.  The meeting is the first presided over by Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

Yellen said the Fed could keep interest rates unusually low even after the U.S. job market returns to full strength and inflation rises to the central bank’s target. Yellen also dropped a set of guideposts it said it was using to help the public anticipate when it would finally start bumping overnight borrowing costs up from record low levels at zero, including the employment measure. It said, however, that dropping a promise to hold rates steady “well past the time” the U.S. unemployment rate falls below 6.5 percent did not indicate any change in its policy intentions. Rather than relying on unemployment and inflation thresholds to guide expectations, it said it would use a wide range of economic indicators.

But what stood out in the Yellen’s statement was her embrace of easy money policies even after the Fed achieves its goals of full employment and 2% inflation.  Stocks rose on the news as expected. This is bullish for gold, despite weakness in recent hours.

The bottom line is that the Fed is set to maintain ultra loose monetary policies in the form of continuing debt monetisation and near zero percent interest rates. Yellen basically confirmed today that she is going to “print baby print”.

Reuters reports that dealers of gold bullion in Singapore and Hong Kong, noted a slowdown in physical demand in recent days. Premiums have fallen and domestic gold prices in China are trading at discounts to cash gold.

Concerns about a spate of Chinese corporate bond defaults and the shadow banking system in China should support gold but demand appears to have abated somewhat in recent days. Although it may be best to wait to see the monthly import export data prior to writing off Chinese demand just yet.

Chinese defaults and problems in the Chinese financial system will be very gold supportive as the Chinese use gold as a store of value and financial and systemic risk will lead to safe haven demand.

Owning physical bullion coins and bars in segregated, allocated accounts in Singapore is now one of the safest ways to own precious metals. Protect and grow your wealth by reading The Essential Guide To Storing Gold In Singapore

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/PQn3wT GoldCore

In case you misunderstood and judged the market's reaction to Janet Yellen's first FOMC statement, the ultimate Fed mouthpiece is out with a few clarifying words (well 712 words posted in under 4 minutes). The Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath clarifies "The Fed stressed it has not changed its plan to keep interest rates low long after the bond-buying program ends," and added further that "the Fed said explicitly for the first time that it likely would keep short-term rates lower than normal, even after inflation and employment return to their longer-run trends." While noting a bigger consensus of members around a 2015 rate 'liftoff', Hilsenrath is careful to point out that the Fed also blamed the weather for not having a clue.

 

Via WSJ,

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday altered its guidance on the likely path of interest rates, putting less weight on the unemployment rate as a signpost for when rate increases will start, while affirming its plan to keep borrowing costs low far into the future.

 

Since late 2012, the Fed had said it wouldn't consider raising interest rates from near zero until the jobless rate fell to 6.5%, provided inflation looks likely to remain below 2.5%. In a new policy statement released Wednesday, the Fed dropped the reference to the 6.5% jobless rate, which officials have come to see as too limited an indicator of the labor market's health.

 

Instead, the central bank said it would "assess progress…toward its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation" in deciding when to raise rates from near zero, where they've been since late 2008. In judging that progress, the Fed will "take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial developments," the statement said.

 

Moreover, the Fed said explicitly for the first time that it likely would keep short-term rates lower than normal, even after inflation and employment return to their longer-run trends. Its latest projections, also released Wednesday, showed officials coalescing around a 2015 liftoff for interest rates.

 

Ten of 16 Fed officials said they saw the Fed's benchmark interest rate rising to 1% or more by the end of 2015, a slight uptick in projections from December, when only seven officials saw rates at or above the 1% level. Twelve of 16 officials expected the rate to be at or above 2% by the end of 2016. In December, eight officials saw rates at or above 2% by the end of 2016.

 

Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will likely elaborate on the rate guidance changes at her first press conference as Fed chief, scheduled to begin at 2:30 p.m. Eastern time.

 

As expected, the Fed also said it would reduce its monthly bond purchases by another $10 billion per month in April, to $55 billion from $65 billion in February and March. The Fed said it would reduce its purchases of long-term Treasury bonds to $30 billion-per-month and cut its purchases of mortgage-backed securities to $25 billion-per-month, a reduction of $5 billion for each. The bond-buying program seeks to push down long-term borrowing rates to spur investing, spending and hiring.

 

The Fed has been moving toward the change in language about interest rate policy for a few months as the jobless rate fell closer to the 6.5% threshold. The rate was 6.6% in January and 6.7% in February, but Fed officials say they see other reasons to keep rates low, including other signs of slack in the economy and headwinds that are still holding the economy back.

 

The Fed stressed it has not changed its plan to keep interest rates low long after the bond-buying program ends. Officials continue to believe it is likely they will keep rates near zero "for a considerable time after the asset purchase program ends," especially if inflation continues to run below the Fed's 2% target, the statement said.

 

Officials explicitly acknowledged that they changed their rate guidance because the unemployment rate had gotten close to the 6.5% threshold. "The change in the Committee's guidance does not indicate any change in the Committee's policy intentions as set forth in its recent statements," officials said.

 

In their statement, Fed officials acknowledged the recent string of soft economic data, saying that "economic activity slowed during the winter months, in part reflecting adverse weather conditions."

 

Eight of the nine voting members of the policy-making committee supported the changes to the rate guidance and bond-buying program. Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota dissented, objecting to removal of the quantitative unemployment and inflation thresholds from the Fed's guidance on interest rates.

 

Normally, all seven Fed governors vote at every policy meeting, as does the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. But the Fed board of governors currently has three vacancies.

 

The presidents of the 12 regional Fed banks vote on a rotating basis. This year, Cleveland Fed President Sandra Pianalto, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher, Philadelphia Fed President Charles Plosser and Mr. Kocherlakota of Minneapolis vote.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/PQhiPR Tyler Durden