Why Polling Is Meaningless

Politicians, these days, appear to magically conjure ever-more-surprising poll-results to support their perspectives. In fact, surveys are used to justify everything in our increasingly divided nation – so why is it so easy to create a poll in your favor? The answer, notes Washington Post’s Reid Wilson, is not in over-sampling partisan perspectives – the problem is that Americans are changing the way they communicate. Simply put, if you want to produce a survey that tilts distinctly Republican, call landlines only. If you want to produce a Democratic-skewed poll, stick to cell phones.

 

Via The Washington Post,

Most political polling these days is seriously skewed. But the problems with polling aren’t oversamples of partisans bending results to one side’s preferred perspective — the problem is that Americans are increasingly changing the way they communicate.

 

Traditionally, pollsters have gauged voter or consumer opinions by calling their targets at home.

 

 

But voters aren’t waiting around by their clunky old landlines anymore… more than half of us either don’t own a landline phone or don’t use their phone as their primary means of communication. Today, we live on our cellphones.

Those who use cellphones look remarkably different, demographically speaking, than those who use landlines. More than 60 percent of adults under age 45 use only their cellphones, Stryker reported, using data collected by the CDC, versus just 13 percent of those 65 and older. Hispanics are much more likely to rely solely on their cells than any other race.

 

those who own only cellphones are much more likely to lean towards Democrats than those attached to landlines. Cell-only respondents leaned toward Democrats by 11 percentage points; those who answered surveys on landlines leaned toward Democrats by just 2 percentage points.

 

The implications are clear: If you want to produce a survey that tilts distinctly Republican, call landlines only. If you want to produce a Democratic-skewed poll, stick to cell phones. If you want a survey that accurately represents the views of the modern electorate, controlling for the percentage of cellphone-only users is just as important as making sure your sample accurately reflects gender, race and education breakdowns of the broader population.

So, in summary, as Wilson notes:

when evaluating a poll, after checking the partisan breakdown, be sure to check just how much of a given survey was conducted among cellphone users. It’s another grain of salt one should use when gauging the electorate — and the accuracy of any given survey.

Unless, of course, the results fit with your exiting bias – in which case celebrate them!?


    



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Serfs Up – Average Healthcare Premiums Have Soared 39%-56% Post Obamacare

It’s been a couple months since I last updated readers on the epic disaster that is Obamacare. In case you need a refresher, here is the last article I published on the law: Computer Security Expert Claims he Hacked the ObamaCare Website in 4 Minutes.

Moving along, we now have some details on the average premium increase for non-Obamacare health plans following the implementation of the law, and the results are not pretty. According to a cost report from eHealthInsurance, premiums have increased by between 39%-56%.

More from The Washington Examiner:

Americans buying health insurance outside the new Obamacare exchanges are being forced to swallow premiums up to 56 percent higher than before the health law took effect because insurers have jumped the cost to cover all the added features of the new Affordable Care Act.

According to a cost report from eHealthInsurance, a nationwide online private insurance exchange, families are paying an average of $663 a month and singles $274 a month, far more than before Obamacare kicked in. What’s more, to save money, most buyers are choosing the lowest level of coverage, the so-called “bronze” plans.

In California, for example, some families are paying a high of $2,604 a month and in New York, $1,845.

His firm’s price index also gives an average age for singles buying plans, and the results are worrying for insurers and the Obama administration. That’s because the average age is 36, older than the administration had hoped for.

The demographic issue is a huge ticking time bomb, something I previously highlighted in my piece: Humana Warns of “‘Adverse ObamaCare Enrollment Mix.”

Moving along, while we are well aware of the financial disaster Obamacare represents for those not participating, what about those who are in (or at least think they are in) the program?

Let’s look at the story of one Las Vegas man who paid his Obamacare premiums since November yet remains uncovered and now has a $407,000 hospital bill nobody is covering.

continue reading

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Ukrainian Military “Authorized” To Use Live Ammo For Self-Defense

So, “supporters” of one side that has promised not to escalate (but believes the region belongs to them based on an overwhelming vote) has killed a soldier from the other side (which has promised to respond) as he defended a military base for his country…

  • *UKRAINE DEFENSE MINISTRY SPOKESMAN MOTUZYANYK SPEAKS BY PHONE
  • *UKRAINE AUTHORIZES LIVE AMMO USE FOR SELF DEFENSE: MOTUZYANYK
  • *UKRAINE AUTHORIZES LIVE AMMO AFTER CRIMEA DEATH: MOTUZYANYK
  • *UKRAINE LIVE AMMO AUTHORIZATION IN CRIMEA ONLY: SENYK

Does that mean war has started?


    



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China’s Farmers Being Forced Into Cities

China’s Farmers Being Forced Into Cities

The indexes were bouncing yesterday (Monday) morning! 

Things didn’t look too interesting earlier but now we’ve got our expected and predicted 0.5% weak bounce thanks to CHINA!!! unveiling their plan to push another 100M people into the cities by 2020. Did I say plan? More like insane scheme, actually.  

While 100M may not seem like a lot to China, it’s still 8% of their population – that would be like the US moving 8M families to the cities in 6 years. Imagine the chaos and upheaval, the strain on urban resources and the collapse of the rural areas they leave behind.  

Still, only the good side is being seen by the markets and copper shot up from our bottom call at $2.925 to $2.975 (5%) in the 3 hours following the 3am announcement and global markets jumped 0.5% as computer programs that still think copper is a major indicator began BUYBUYBUYing on what must be some good news somewhere.  

So that’s the nature of the WEAK bounce we’re seeing this morning.  We’ll take it more seriously when it’s a 1% strong bounce and, if that holds – THEN we’ll consider getting on board but a weak bounce off news that China is going insane with infrastructure spending doesn’t give us a whole lot of confidence in the market having any real strength:

The plan repeated previous government statements on allowing farmers more freedom in selling or leasing their land. It gave no timetable or specific targets.

 

Some smaller cities have already eased their hukou controls, which also tie benefits to a family’s residential status, to attract more rural laborers. But these efforts have only been partially successful because many people prefer to move to large cities for better job opportunities and public services.

 

The government would expand the coverage of social welfare, including pension and medical insurance, and reduce the costs of paying social insurance, the plan said without giving specifics.

 

The authorities would also allow local governments to issue municipal bonds and push ahead with a property tax law that would be aimed at boosting revenue to help cover the cost of increased urbanization. The plan also calls for expanding resource taxes to top up local government budgets. There were no specifics on any of these revenue measures, however.

Pretty horrific video, right? The CHINA growth story is really a story about Government officials making a land grab in the breadbasket while feeding more wage slaves to the factory owners in the city by forcibly growing the labor pool and depressing wages. Meanwhile, fat infrastructure projects are doled out to Party favorites and the debt is shoved off to local Governments, which are forced to hit goals and, in turn, borrow money from banks or issue bonds. 

Like any Ponzi scheme, China growth has topped out and now it’s all the runners of the con (Chinese Government) can do to keep investors from trying to pull out of the game. Past performance keeps people optimistic for quite some time but how many times in a row can China say “INFRASTRUCTURE” to keep the plates spinning for another 6 months? 

Speaking of land grabs – let’s not forget about Crimea, which has proclaimed itself to be independent – but only long enough to formally seek Russia’s “permission” to rejoing the country as a republic. Western leaders have already declared the results of the referendum illegal. Crimea’s parliament has also voted to nationalize state property on the territory of the peninsula following the announcement of Crimea’s independence. This is the flaw in Democracy – they did “vote” for it, didn’t they?  

Since we’ve had a 2.5% drop, our 5% Rule™ demands a 0.5% bounce from these levels. Since China made a big announcement (yesterday), we’re not going to be impressed with a weak 20% retrace so we’ll demand a strong 40% retrace (1% bounce) by the end of the week, otherwise we’ll be back to bearish in our short-term bets. Any failure of the weak bounce levels, of course, is also a reason to get bearish and already this morning – I put up a note to our Members to short the Futures at 16,100 on /YM (Dow) and 1,185 on /TF (Russell), watching 1,845 on /ES (S&P) to confirm weakness. 

The Fed has a Rate Decision on Wednesday (2pm), followed by a Yellen Press Conference (2:30), so no other Fed Speak this week, but Real Estate Data is likely to be weak and all this political uncertaintly leads us to only one course of action. 

Be careful out there!

Click here to try Phil’s Stock World FREE!  


    



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Yamarone Warns Weather A Red-Herring Amid Deeper Signs Of Slump

Blaming the weather for the sullen state of corporate or economic affairs has become a daily occurrence by analysts, pundits and corporate chieftains. However, Bloomberg's Rich Yamarone notes that while there has undoubtedly been a larger-than-normal impact this year, some sub-components of headline indicators suggest underlying weakness without the influence of snowstorms. Sinking economic activity cannot be blamed solely on poor weather, he adds, noting one client's comment that, "If we adjusted for weather, Napoleon would have taken Russia in 1812."

While we have disavowed the muppetry of the weather-blamers (with housing data as the best example that disproves the fallacy), and noted that outlooks have also been reduced (which seems like the surveyed are better weather-forecasters than industry "see-ers", Yamarone notes:

Several indicators last week showed the influence of bad weather, but digging deeper and focusing on sub-components that were not affected by the weather also reveals softer economic conditions.

 

The National Federation of Independent Business’s Optimism Index (NFIB) fell 2.7 points to 91.4 in February — its lowest reading since March 2013. One sub-component, the NFIB’s “Good Time to Expand” index, fell two points to 6.0 last month. This has nothing to do with weather since it is reflective of expectations three months out, in May.

 

 

Restaurant sales, which are very discretionary in nature, inched up 0.3 percent versus January, 2.5 percent from year-ago levels. Adjusting for inflation, the real level of restaurant sales is 1 percent — a very weak posting. A sub-4 percent (nominal) pace has signaled recession in the past.

 

Of course, the weakness in Q1 GDP is quickly hockey-sticked away by "economist" expectations for the future – just around the corner…
 

But, as Yamarone concludes:

when attempting to decipher the underlying trends in the economy, it is probably wise to ignore the headlines and focus on those components that are less weather related. Last week’s data imply sustained weakness during the next few months, none of which is likely to be weather related.


    



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The Ukraine-Russia Standoff Escalates – Live Feed

With Ukraine military spokespersons acknowledging that military snipers were in action around the base in Semferopol and blood having been spilled:

  • *UKRAINIAN INSTALLATION SEIZED BY UNIDENTIFIED GUNMEN: SELEZNYOV
  • *UKRAINIAN MILITARY UNIT UNDER ARREST IN CRIMEA: SELEZNYOV

it would appear – as the Ukraine PM warned – that the situation has “moved from the political to military stage.” While things are quiet once again outside the military base, the following live feed will cover events as night falls…

 

 

Live Feed:

 

As blood has been spilled…

With pro-Russia militia in control of the base:

 

 

 

But The Russians are on the move…


    



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Cry Havoc and Let Slip the Dogs of War

Cry Havoc and Let Slip the Dogs of War

By

Cognitive Dissonance

 

 

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I am not a classically trained man, having successfully avoided Shakespeare most of my life. But even an ignorant man, such that I am, is eventually exposed to Shakespearian clichés during the normal course of his life. The title of this piece is one such example that has crossed my path on several occasions, the latest being last night as Mrs. Cog and I watched the final episode of the second season of Netflix’s “House of Cards”.

What interesting propaganda that ‘programming’ is; the depiction of husband and wife sociopaths as almost human, possibly even endearing, certainly flawed and vulnerable at times. While sharing this series with Mrs. Cog over the last few weeks, what continuously fascinated me was how they both were able to near seamlessly cast aside the ‘normal’ confines of morality, duty and honor for political expediency and the pursuit of power.

This included at times an open marriage, though not necessarily simply in pursuit of mindless carnal pleasure. Each marriage ‘partner’ understood their own role in the marriage ‘business’, and while it was obvious that they loved and were devoted to each other, they both understood that ‘political expediency’ required certain sacrifices or undertakings unique to their sex, position or capability.

When called upon to do so, both understood that it was just ‘business’ (though there was nothing wrong with taking a little pleasure in your business) and in fact at times the act itself, whatever it may be, was discussed and planned between the two partners prior to being executed. Of particular note, there were often veiled references to an agreement between them made years, decades, ago that each would from time to time be called upon to step outside the traditional bounds of marriage, law, and what you and I might refer to as ‘common decency’, in order to further their shared goal………power.

 

Power

 

If anything this non-traditional approach seemed to bind them even closer to one another. The very actions that might tear a ‘normal’ relationship asunder seemed at times to strengthen theirs, apparently because they both shared a common goal and understood that in order to succeed, or at least to greatly improve their chances of success, they would need, individually and collectively, to do what nearly all others would not.

Interestingly, what you and I might label as flaws of character they saw as assets to be used against those of us more encumbered by social graces and a disabling moral conscience. As I was once told by someone who was trying to ‘inspire’ me, successful people do the things unsuccessful people will not. Or course he wasn’t advocating transgressing moral or legal boundaries, just picking up the damn phone and making another cold call, thus the true reason for my abject failure in life. Clearly I have no killer instinct.

While most who watched this couple in action might consider them horribly dysfunctional, and I most certainly would not desire a relationship such as that with Mrs. Cog, the process as depicted of single minded pursuit of power by those whom we would label as sociopaths was fascinating to watch. And judging by what I see, hear and read coming out of Wall Street, Washington DC and multinational corporate boardrooms, as well as other centers of power all over the globe, this fictional portrayal is completely believable.

We morally self constrained peons are in so much trouble.

The phrase “Cry ‘Havoc!’, and let slip the dogs of war” was uttered by the principal character of “House of Cards” at a critical juncture, when it became clear that after years of careful planning, backstabbing, shifting political alliances and general mayhem, all in the pursuit of power, everything was in jeopardy of falling apart. The choice was clear; to throw caution to the wind and put it all on the table, or be cast aside as useless debris, expected collateral damage among the mid level omnipotent during the never ending War between the Gods.

 

War of the Gods

 

In an earlier scene, when informed by the husband that the situation was precarious and he was losing control, the wife, indignant that the husband was letting her down, angrily told him that he was scared and to do whatever it took to make it happen. This was clearly an equal partnership and one of the partners had just dressed down the other. It was business, no more, no less. Get to work!

Fortified, emboldened and now fearless, a plan was cobbled together and flawlessly executed not to wrestle power from the hands of another, but to enable it so that the ‘other’ willingly, almost gratefully, handed power to him. In the end, the now self deposed leader thanked the sociopath for all his help and support as he handed the reins of power to his ‘friend’, blissfully unaware of what actually had just happened and who the enemy really was. Simply brilliant and so familiar to anyone who carefully watches the modern day social control systems in action.

I did a little research into the “Cry Havoc” phrase this morning. While the context in which it was spoken essentially defined the meaning, I wanted to understand where it came from and how it was originally used. William Shakespeare’s “Julius Caesar” is where this particular utterance originated, though it seems there are several interpretations as to what exactly was being said.

Havoc’ was, and hopefully no longer is among ‘civilized’ war machines, a military order permitting the seizure of spoil after a victory. It could also be seen as simply a metaphorical use to declare that war or combat had begun. To ‘let slip’ meant to unleash or release, while the ‘dogs of war’ could either be a literal interpretation of ‘war dogs’ or more likely the release of soldiers of war from ‘moral’ and/or legal constraints in order to rape, pillage and plunder.

 

The Captains Share of the Booty

 

After all, one must ‘pay’ the soldiers any way you can if you don’t want them to turn on you. Doing so in this manner centuries, millennium, ago was an accepted ‘business’ practice and just the way the world worked. In fact, while I may for the most part be ignorant of Shakespeare (I watched “Shakespeare in Love”….does that count?) I am not uninformed of world history over the last several thousands of years…….at least the widely accepted ‘written-by-the-winners’ version disseminated by the education control system.

Even if certain events or outcomes as outlined by mainstream ‘history’ textbooks did not actually play out as outlined, the methods used and the mindset adopted by the participants was, and is, very real. “We the People’ bemoan the corruption, lawlessness, cronyism, collusion, deception, the wholesale rape, pillage and plunder by the 1% for the 1% as abhorrent and entirely unacceptable. Seen from the perspective of world history, such a point of view might be a tad naïve.

Are the present-day actions of the 1% so outrageous that they should be hung from the rafters, or the nearest stout oak tree limb if a glorious public spectacle is required, for their egregious transgressions? Or have “We the People” been slowly and carefully domesticated over the last few centuries, psychologically conditioned and genetically bred for mindless passivity in the face of danger, then recently fattened up (literally and figuratively) for slaughter because killing time is near?

All I truly know is that my only defense in the face of such destructive behavior by those presently in power is to face them with a clear mind and a strong heart. And to do this I must shed myself of many, if not all, of my preconceived notions of how the world works based upon how I was propagandized into believing it should work. If I feed at the trough, because that is what all cattle do, then I will be slaughtered in the killing house, because that is what all cattle do.

There are no magic bullets to load, no red pills to swallow, no charismatic leader to follow to the Promised Land. We have been, and continue to be, leveraged in such a way as to willingly, gratefully even, hand over our own sovereign power to those who, in turn, will use it to lead us into the slaughter house. I, for one, am no longer willing to do so. How about you?

Free the mind and spirit, and the body will naturally follow.

 

03-18-2014

Cognitive Dissonance

 

www.TwoIceFloes.com is unlike anything you will find on the web, a truly unique destination. There you will find distinctive Premium Members only articles as well as discussions on wellness and health, homesteading, spirituality & philosophy and most importantly ‘safe’ forums not found anywhere else. Come by for a peek and stay a while.

 

The Slaughterhouse Sun


    



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Meet The Brand New, And Shocking, Third Largest Foreign Holder Of US Treasurys

Something hilarious, and at the same time pathetic, happened earlier today: at precisely 9 am the US Treasury released its delayed Treasury International Capital data (which was supposed to be released yesterday but was delayed because it snowed) which disclosed all the latest foreign Treasury holdings for the month of January. Among the key numbers tracked and disclosed, was that China’s official holdings increased from $1.270 trillion to $1.284 trillion, that Japan holdings declined by a tiny $0.2 billion, that UK holdings increased by $7.8 billion to $171 billion, and that holdings of Caribbean Banking Centers, aka hedge funds, declined by $16.7 billion. Here is Reuters with the full data summary (save it before this article is pulled).

So why is it hilarious and pathetic? Because just three short hours later, the Treasury that organization that has billions of dollars at its budgetary disposal to collate, analyze and disseminate accurate and error-free dataadmitted that all the previously reported data was in effect made up!

Of course, it didn’t phrase it as such. Instead, what TIC did was release an entire set of January numbers shortly after it had released the “old” numbers, which differed by a small amount but differed across the board – in other words, not a small typo here and there: a wholesale data fudging exercise gone horribly wrong. For example:

  • Instead of a $14 billion increase, China’s revised holdings were only $3.5 billion higher.
  • Instead of unchanged, Japan’s holdings suddenly mysteriously increased by $19 billion in January.
  • Instead of plunging by $17 billion, the Caribbean Banking Centers were down by a tiny $1 billion.
  • And instead of the previously reported increase of just under $1 billion, the all important Russia was revised to have sold $7 billion, bringing its new total to just $132 billion ahead of the alleged previously reported dump of Fed custody holdings in mid-March.

That this glaring confirmation that all TIC data is made up on the fly, without any real backing, and merely goalseeked is disturbing enough. For what it’s worth, the latest TIC data is here. Feel free to peruse it before it is revised again

However, what was perhaps more disturbing than even that was the revelation that as of January, the US has a brand new third largest holder of US Treasurys, one which in the past two months has added over $100 billion in US Treasury paper, bringing its total from $201 billion in November, to $257 billion in December, to a whopping $310 billion at January 31.

The country? Belgium

The same Belgium which at the end of 2013 had a GDP of just over €100 billion, or a little over one-third what its alleged UST holdings are.

And somehow the Treasury expects us to believe that tiny Belgium – the center of the doomed Eurozone which is all too busy running debt ponzi scheme of its own – bought in two months nearly as much US Treasurys as its entire GDP?

Apparently yes. However we are not that naive.

So our question is: just who is Belgium being used as a front for?

Recall that for years, the “UK” line item on TIC data was simply offshore accounts transaction on behalf of China. Of course, since China hasn’t added any net US paper holdings in the past year, the UK, and China, are both irrelevant in the grand scheme of things.

But not Belgium. Because with Russia (or someone else) rumored to have sold or otherwise reallocated $100 billion in US Treasurys in March away from the Fed, we wouldn’t be surprised if the Belgium total holdings somehow soared to over $400 billion when the March data is revealed some time in May. Courtesy of the excel goalseeking function of course.

Needless to say, this all ignores the initially confirmed fact that all the data presented above is made up gibberish, goalseeked by a bored intern at the Treasury, and whose work got zero error-proofing before its released to the entire world earlier today.

So… just what is going on with this most critical of data sets – official foreign holdings of US paper, and how long before an Edward Snowden emerges from the depths of the US Treasury building and reveals that behind all the data manipulation and unaudited figures was none other than the Fed, whose holdings, far greater than represented, are all that matter, and everything else is merely one grand, theatrical plug?


    



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White House Reveals Biggest Threat To Russia Yet: “Don’t Buy Russian Stocks”

If there is one line that reveals how the Obama administration is perceiving the world, and specifically that it is all through the lens of the manipulated stock market, here it is…

It appears the market is ignoring their wisdom…


    



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Is This The Provocation? Ukraine Soldier Allegedly Killed By Russians In Crimea

As feared earlier, the attack by “unidentified” forces on a Ukrainemilitary base in Semferopol has resulted in fatalities:

  • *UKRAINE SOLDIER KILLED AFTER UNIDENTIFIED GUNMEN STORMED BASE
  • *UKRAINE SOLDIER’S DEATH IN CRIMEA CONFIRMED BY DEFENSE MINISTRY

And two further “self-defense” fighters are injured. Once again it seems the market misread Putin’s comments and one wonders how will Turchynov respond?

 

The incident occurred in Crimea’s main city of Simferopol, regional defence ministry spokesman Vladislav Seleznyov said, without specifying whether the base was stormed by Russian soldiers or pro-Kremlin militia who also patrol the peninsula.

 

Via Interfax,

One self-defense fighter has been killed and two more injured in Simferopol, according to the Crimean news agency which cited a source in the republic’s Interior Ministry.

 

The self-defense fighters were shot by a sniper from an uncompleted building opposite a Ukrainian military base, the source said.

 


    



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