The Unspoken, Festering Secret At The Heart Of Shadow Banking: "Self-Securitization" … With Central Banks

By now everyone has heard of securitization: the process whereby banks take risky assets on their books, package, tranche them, and then re-sell them to yield chasing fiduciaries of widows and orphans. The conversion process can be nebulous, usually involving a 20 year-old evil French mastermind working for Goldman, and a billionaire hedge fund manager, who select the worthless securities put into the weakest tranche, just so the abovementioned two parties can short it while misrepresenting their conflicts of interest, and make a boatload of money when the whole securitized structure implodes. The process usually takes place “off balance sheet” via Special Purpose Vehicles so it is completely unregulated, and as such allows massive leverage.

According to many, the hidden leverage embedded in the securitization pipeline is what catalyzed the 2008 near-death experience of the financial markets.

All of this is well-known to most.

What however is certainly not known, because until a few days ago the concept did not technicall exist, is what emerged deep from the bowels of the FSB’s 2013 “Global Shadow Banking report“, and what is barely even defined anywhere in popular literature, which thus we have defined as the “unspoken, festering secret at the heart of shadow banking.”

Presenting self-securitization.

What is “self-securitization”? Go ahead and Google it: there doesn’t exist any technical definition of this heretofore unheard of phrase.

Rather the term, conceived by the FSB as a means of making the total size of the $71 trillion shadow banking sector somewhat more palatable, is defined as follows:

Self-securitisation (retained securitisation) is defined as those securitisation transactions done solely for the purpose of using the securities created as collateral with the central bank in order to obtain funding, with no intent to sell them to third-party investors. All of the securities issued by the Structured Finance Vehicle (SFV) for all tranches are owned by the originating bank and remain on its balance sheet.

At this point alarm bells should be going off. And if they aren’t, here is some more color.

The numbers for OFIs presented in sections 2 to 4 of this report include all financial assets of Structured Finance Vehicles (SFVs), regardless of who holds the securitised products. However, in a number of jurisdictions, some of these products are returned back onto the balance sheet of the bank that originally provided the asset to be securitised. This so called self-securitisation, or retained securitisation, is defined as those securitisation transactions done solely for the purpose of using the securities created as collateral with the central bank in order to obtain funding, with no intent to sell them to third-party investors. All of the securities issued by the SFV for all tranches are owned by the originating bank and remain on the bank’s balance sheet, so that third-party investors do not own any of the securities issued by the SFV. These assets should not be included in the shadow banking figure, as prudential consolidation rules consider them as banks’ own assets and as such subject to consolidated supervision and capital requirements.

 

…  some of the assets that are currently ‘self-securitised’ by banks may at some point be sold to third parties when financial conditions improve.

Wait a minute: a company is “securitizing” assets…. which it then keeps, but only after it has “obtained funding with a central bank”? What?

Judging by the countries whose shadow bank institutions are the most aggressive participants in “self-securitization”, it gets clearer just what is going on here:

While Italy and Spain are clear, why is Australia on this list?

While the large increase in Australian banks’ self-securitisation of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) started in 2008 (i.e. before Basel III was developed), the amount of self-securitisation is expected to stay high going forward as these securities are eligible as collateral for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Committed Liquidity Facility (CLF). Indeed some banks are gearing up already for the CLF. Given the low level of government debt in Australia, the Australian prudential regulator has adopted elements of the Basel rules that allow banks to count a committed liquidity facility provided by the central banks as part of their Basel III liquidity requirements.

So that very strict Basel III requirements are permissive enough to allow… shadow “banks” to engage in self-securitization with their central bank? Just brilliant.

Finally, what amount of circularly (non) securitized, central-bank backstopped securities are we talking here?

Answer: $1,200,000,000,000.

That is the amount of unlevered notional that shadow (and regular) banks engage in circular check-kiting games with central banks for, and in the process obtaing “funding.” As one trading desk explained it:

you take yr worst assets… package up in an spv (which removes em from yr gaap balance sheet) then flip to central bank for cash at modest haircut and boom revenues…

And presto: magic balance sheet clean up and even more magical “revenues.”

But wait, there’s more.

Where this mindblowing, circular scheme in which riskless central banks serve as secret sources of incremental bank funding, i.e., free money, gets completely insane, is the realization that these self-securitized assets can also participate in rehypothecation chains. Recall from our exposition yesterday on the permitted leverage resulting from collateral reuse in a repo chain which is fundamentally what shadow banking is all about: unregulated, stratospheric leverage.

We added:

So… three participants result in 4x leverage; four: in roughly 6x, and so on. Of course, these are conservative estimates: in the real, collateral-strapped world, the amount of collateral reuse, and thus the number of participants is orders of magnitude higher. Which means that after just a few turns of rehypothecation, leverage approaches infinity.

Which means that should these same banks that self-securitize with Central Bank X, then proceed to re-use the same securit
y with the same counterparty – i.e., their host central bank, or the Fed of course – then this $1.2 trillion in assets, already carried off-balance sheet with Basel III’s blessings, can get 2x, 3x, 5x, 8x, 13x or more turns of leverage on them, as for the shadow bank it is the central bank that is the (up to infinity) levered counterparty. And the central bank, as everyone knows, can always just print money if and when the worthless collateral backing the bank’s self securitization ends up worthless.

The implication of this unprecedented shadow banking circle jerk, which could very easily make even the direct wealth transfer resulting from trillions in QE pale by comparison, is so stunning that we leave it up to the reader to come to their own conclusion.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/8Z3YYO9fUWQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

The Unspoken, Festering Secret At The Heart Of Shadow Banking: “Self-Securitization” … With Central Banks

By now everyone has heard of securitization: the process whereby banks take risky assets on their books, package, tranche them, and then re-sell them to yield chasing fiduciaries of widows and orphans. The conversion process can be nebulous, usually involving a 20 year-old evil French mastermind working for Goldman, and a billionaire hedge fund manager, who select the worthless securities put into the weakest tranche, just so the abovementioned two parties can short it while misrepresenting their conflicts of interest, and make a boatload of money when the whole securitized structure implodes. The process usually takes place “off balance sheet” via Special Purpose Vehicles so it is completely unregulated, and as such allows massive leverage.

According to many, the hidden leverage embedded in the securitization pipeline is what catalyzed the 2008 near-death experience of the financial markets.

All of this is well-known to most.

What however is certainly not known, because until a few days ago the concept did not technicall exist, is what emerged deep from the bowels of the FSB’s 2013 “Global Shadow Banking report“, and what is barely even defined anywhere in popular literature, which thus we have defined as the “unspoken, festering secret at the heart of shadow banking.”

Presenting self-securitization.

What is “self-securitization”? Go ahead and Google it: there doesn’t exist any technical definition of this heretofore unheard of phrase.

Rather the term, conceived by the FSB as a means of making the total size of the $71 trillion shadow banking sector somewhat more palatable, is defined as follows:

Self-securitisation (retained securitisation) is defined as those securitisation transactions done solely for the purpose of using the securities created as collateral with the central bank in order to obtain funding, with no intent to sell them to third-party investors. All of the securities issued by the Structured Finance Vehicle (SFV) for all tranches are owned by the originating bank and remain on its balance sheet.

At this point alarm bells should be going off. And if they aren’t, here is some more color.

The numbers for OFIs presented in sections 2 to 4 of this report include all financial assets of Structured Finance Vehicles (SFVs), regardless of who holds the securitised products. However, in a number of jurisdictions, some of these products are returned back onto the balance sheet of the bank that originally provided the asset to be securitised. This so called self-securitisation, or retained securitisation, is defined as those securitisation transactions done solely for the purpose of using the securities created as collateral with the central bank in order to obtain funding, with no intent to sell them to third-party investors. All of the securities issued by the SFV for all tranches are owned by the originating bank and remain on the bank’s balance sheet, so that third-party investors do not own any of the securities issued by the SFV. These assets should not be included in the shadow banking figure, as prudential consolidation rules consider them as banks’ own assets and as such subject to consolidated supervision and capital requirements.

 

…  some of the assets that are currently ‘self-securitised’ by banks may at some point be sold to third parties when financial conditions improve.

Wait a minute: a company is “securitizing” assets…. which it then keeps, but only after it has “obtained funding with a central bank”? What?

Judging by the countries whose shadow bank institutions are the most aggressive participants in “self-securitization”, it gets clearer just what is going on here:

While Italy and Spain are clear, why is Australia on this list?

While the large increase in Australian banks’ self-securitisation of residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) started in 2008 (i.e. before Basel III was developed), the amount of self-securitisation is expected to stay high going forward as these securities are eligible as collateral for the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Committed Liquidity Facility (CLF). Indeed some banks are gearing up already for the CLF. Given the low level of government debt in Australia, the Australian prudential regulator has adopted elements of the Basel rules that allow banks to count a committed liquidity facility provided by the central banks as part of their Basel III liquidity requirements.

So that very strict Basel III requirements are permissive enough to allow… shadow “banks” to engage in self-securitization with their central bank? Just brilliant.

Finally, what amount of circularly (non) securitized, central-bank backstopped securities are we talking here?

Answer: $1,200,000,000,000.

That is the amount of unlevered notional that shadow (and regular) banks engage in circular check-kiting games with central banks for, and in the process obtaing “funding.” As one trading desk explained it:

you take yr worst assets… package up in an spv (which removes em from yr gaap balance sheet) then flip to central bank for cash at modest haircut and boom revenues…

And presto: magic balance sheet clean up and even more magical “revenues.”

But wait, there’s more.

Where this mindblowing, circular scheme in which riskless central banks serve as secret sources of incremental bank funding, i.e., free money, gets completely insane, is the realization that these self-securitized assets can also participate in rehypothecation chains. Recall from our exposition yesterday on the permitted leverage resulting from collateral reuse in a repo chain which is fundamentally what shadow banking is all about: unregulated, stratospheric leverage.

We added:

So… three participants result in 4x leverage; four: in roughly 6x, and so on. Of course, these are conservative estimates: in the real, collateral-strapped world, the amount of collateral reuse, and thus the number of participants is orders of magnitude higher. Which means that after just a few turns of rehypothecation, leverage approaches infinity.

Which means that should these same banks that self-securitize with Central Bank X, then proceed to re-use the same security with the same counterparty – i.e., their host central bank, or the Fed of course – then this $1.2 trillion in assets, already carried off-balance sheet with Basel III’s blessings, can get 2x, 3x, 5x, 8x, 13x or more turns of leverage on them, as for the shadow bank it is the central bank that is the (up to infinity) levered counterparty. And the central bank, as everyone knows, can always just print money if and when the worthless collateral backing the bank’s self securitization ends up worthless.

The implication of this unprecedented shadow banking circle jerk, which could very easily make even the direct wealth transfer resulting from trillions in QE pale by comparison, is so stunning that we leave it up to the reader to come to their own conclusion.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/8Z3YYO9fUWQ/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Weekly Bull/Bear Recap: Nov 11th-15th 2013

This objective report concisely summarizes important macro events over the past week. It is not geared to push an agenda. Impartiality is necessary to avoid costly psychological traps, which all investors are prone to, such as confirmation, conservatism, and endowment biases.

 

Via Rodrigo Serrano’s RCS Investments,

RCS Investments Weekly Bull/Bear Recap


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/7SzqqNKBKb8/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Mission (Almost) Accomplished: S&P 500 Nears Bernanke's 1,800 Year-End Target

As we "forecast" this morning (and a month ago – if our extrapolation of the Fed's balance sheet is correct – i.e. no Taper – that the S&P 500 Fed L-A-B-I-A should be around 1800 by year-end), the Fed can be proud that they managed (remember it "costs" $3.25bn in POMO to create 1 S&P 500 point) to get the key US equity index – the S&P 500 – near the critical 1,800 level…

 

 

Mission (Almost) Accomplished…

 

Cue Tom Lee… need to re-raise that year-end target again stat… (of course there is always the real "Bernanke" plan)

 

The last four weeks have seen the S&P 500 rise 4%, IG credit spreads drop 1bps, and HY credit spreads +6bps (as supply overwhelms a saturated credit market)…

 

Off the debt-ceiling lows… indices are unstoppable… (Trannies +12.5%!)

 

With every dip in any sector bid to infinity… (Discretionary and Industrials +11%!!)

 

Gold made it back to unchanged on the week thanks the Yellenomics…

 

Treasuries rallied 5-8bps on the week…

 

FX markets saw USD weakness all day… ending the week -0.45% (and -0.9% against the EUR)…

 

Investors appeared to protecting some gains during day (and it was OPEX) but VIX was levered into the close as they tried to tag 1800..

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

Bonus Chart: It seems the bubble in "bubble" speak has been a lot bubblier in the past…

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: This is what a bubble looks like…

 

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: You ain't seen nothing yet… NKY is up 1480 points in 6 days…


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/81CjypSKmzA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Mission (Almost) Accomplished: S&P 500 Nears Bernanke’s 1,800 Year-End Target

As we "forecast" this morning (and a month ago – if our extrapolation of the Fed's balance sheet is correct – i.e. no Taper – that the S&P 500 Fed L-A-B-I-A should be around 1800 by year-end), the Fed can be proud that they managed (remember it "costs" $3.25bn in POMO to create 1 S&P 500 point) to get the key US equity index – the S&P 500 – near the critical 1,800 level…

 

 

Mission (Almost) Accomplished…

 

Cue Tom Lee… need to re-raise that year-end target again stat… (of course there is always the real "Bernanke" plan)

 

The last four weeks have seen the S&P 500 rise 4%, IG credit spreads drop 1bps, and HY credit spreads +6bps (as supply overwhelms a saturated credit market)…

 

Off the debt-ceiling lows… indices are unstoppable… (Trannies +12.5%!)

 

With every dip in any sector bid to infinity… (Discretionary and Industrials +11%!!)

 

Gold made it back to unchanged on the week thanks the Yellenomics…

 

Treasuries rallied 5-8bps on the week…

 

FX markets saw USD weakness all day… ending the week -0.45% (and -0.9% against the EUR)…

 

Investors appeared to protecting some gains during day (and it was OPEX) but VIX was levered into the close as they tried to tag 1800..

 

Charts: Bloomberg

 

Bonus Chart: It seems the bubble in "bubble" speak has been a lot bubblier in the past…

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: This is what a bubble looks like…

 

 

Bonus Bonus Chart: You ain't seen nothing yet… NKY is up 1480 points in 6 days…


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/81CjypSKmzA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

90 Years Ago: The End Of German Hyperinflation

Submitted by Thorsten Polleit of the Ludwig von Mises Institute,

On 15 November 1923 decisive steps were taken to end the nightmare of hyperinflation in the Weimar Republic: The Reichsbank, the German central bank, stopped monetizing government debt, and a new means of exchange, the Rentenmark, was issued next to the Papermark (in German: Papiermark). These measures succeeded in halting hyperinflation, but the purchasing power of the Papermark was completely ruined. To understand how and why this could happen, one has to take a look at the time shortly before the outbreak of World War I.

Since 1871, the mark had been the official money in the Deutsches Reich. With the outbreak of World War I, the gold redeemability of the Reichsmark was suspended on 4 August 1914. The gold-backed Reichsmark (or “Goldmark,” as it was referred to from 1914) became the unbacked Papermark. Initially, the Reich financed its war outlays in large part through issuing debt. Total public debt rose from 5.2bn Papermark in 1914 to 105.3bn in 1918. In 1914, the quantity of Papermark was 5.9 billion, in 1918 it stood at 32.9 billion. From August 1914 to November 1918, wholesale prices in the Reich had risen 115 percent, and the purchasing power of the Papermark had fallen by more than half. In the same period, the exchange rate of the Papermark depreciated 84 percent against the US dollar.

The new Weimar Republic faced tremendous economic and political challenges. In 1920, industrial production was 61 percent of the level seen in 1913, and in 1923 it had fallen further to 54 percent. The land losses following the Versailles Treaty had weakened the Reich’s productive capacity substantially: the Reich lost around 13 percent of its former land mass, and around 10 percent of the German population was now living outside its borders. In addition, Germany had to make reparation payments. Most important, however, the new and fledgling democratic governments wanted to cater as best as possible to the wishes of their voters. As tax revenues were insufficient to finance these outlays, the Reichsbank started running the printing press.

From April 1920 to March 1921, the ratio of tax revenues to spending amounted to just 37 percent. Thereafter, the situation improved somewhat and in June 1922, taxes relative to total spending even reached 75 percent. Then things turned ugly. Toward the end of 1922, Germany was accused of having failed to deliver its reparation payments on time. To back their claim, French and Belgian troops invaded and occupied the Ruhrgebiet, the Reich’s industrial heartland, at the beginning of January 1923. The German government under chancellor Wilhelm Kuno called upon Ruhrgebiet workers to resist any orders from the invaders, promising the Reich would keep paying their wages. The Reichsbank began printing up new money by monetizing debt to keep the government liquid for making up tax-shortfalls and paying wages, social transfers, and subsidies.

From May 1923 on, the quantity of Papermark started spinning out of control. It rose from 8.610 billion in May to 17.340 billion in April, and further to 669.703 billion in August, reaching 400 quintillion (that is 400 x 1018) in November 1923. Wholesale prices skyrocketed to astronomical levels, rising by 1.813 percent from the end of 1919 to November 1923. At the end of World War I in 1918 you could have bought 500 billion eggs for the same money you would have to spend five years later for just one egg. Through November 1923, the price of the US dollar in terms of Papermark had risen by 8.912 percent. The Papermark had actually sunken to scrap value.

With the collapse of the currency, unemployment was on the rise. Since the end of the war, unemployment had remained fairly low — given that the Weimar governments had kept the economy going by vigorous deficit spending and money printing. At the end of 1919, the unemployment rate stood at 2.9 percent, in 1920 at 4.1 percent, 1921 at 1.6 percent and 1922 at 2.8 percent. With the dying of the Papermark, though, the unemployment rate reached 19.1 percent in October, 23.4 percent in November, and 28.2 percent in December. Hyperinflation had impoverished the great majority of the German population, especially the middle class. People suffered from food shortages and cold. Political extremism was on the rise.

The central problem for sorting out the monetary mess was the Reichsbank itself. The term of its president, Rudolf E. A. Havenstein, was for life, and he was literally unstoppable: under Havenstein, the Reichsbank kept issuing ever greater amounts of Papiermark for keeping the Reich financially afloat. Then, on 15 November 1923, the Reichsbank was made to stop monetizing government debt and issuing new money. At the same time, it was decided to make one trillion Papermark (a number with twelve zeros: 1,000,000,000,000) equal to one Rentenmark. On 20 November 1923, Havenstein died, all of a sudden, through a heart attack. That same day, Hjalmar Schacht, who would become Reichsbank president in December, took action and stabilized the Papermark against the US dollar: the Reichsbank, and through foreign exchange market interventions, made 4.2 trillion Papermark equal to one US Dollar. And as one trillion Papermark was equal to one Rentenmark, the exchange rate was 4.2 Rentenmark for one US dollar. This was exactly the exchange rate that had prevailed between the Reichsmark and the US dollar before World War I. The “miracle of the Rentenmark” marked the end of hyperinflation.

How could such a monetary disaster happen in a civilized and advanced society, leading to the total destruction of the currency? Many explanations have been put forward. It has been argued that, for instance, that reparation payments, chronic balance of payment deficits, and even the depreciation of the Papermark in the foreign exchange markets had actually caused the demise of the German currency. However, these explanations are not convincing, as the German economist Hans F. Sennholz explains: “[E]very mark was printed by Germans and issued by a central bank that was governed by Germans under a government that was purely German. It was German political parties, such as the Socialists, the Catholic Centre Party, and the Democrats, forming various coalition governments that were solely responsible for the policies they conducted. Of course, admission of responsibility for any calamity cannot be expected from any political party. Indeed, the German hyperinflation was manmade, it was the result of a deliberate political decision to increase the quantity of money de facto without any limit.

What are the lessons to be learned from the German hyperinflation?

The first lesson is that even a politically independent central bank does not provide a reliable protection against the destruction of (paper) money. The Reichsbank had been made politically independent as early as 1922; actually on behalf of the allied forces, as a service rendered in return for a temporary deferment of reparation payments. Still, the Reichsbank council decided for hyperinflating the currency. Seeing that the Reich had to increasingly rely on Reichsbank credit to stay afloat, the council of the Reichsbank decided to provide unlimited amounts of money in such an “existential political crisis.” Of course, the credit appetite of the Weimar politicians turned out to be unlimited.

The second lesson is that fiat paper money won’t work. Hjalmar Schacht, in his 1953 biography, noted: “The introduction of the banknote of state paper money was only possible as the state or the central bank promi
sed to redeem the paper money note at any one time in gold. Ensuring the possibility for redeeming in gold at any one time must be the endeavor of all issuers of paper money.” Schacht’s words harbor a central economic insight: Unbacked paper money is political money and as such it is a disruptive element in a system of free markets. The representatives of the Austrian School of economics pointed this out a long time ago.

Paper money, produced “ex nihilo” and injected into the economy through bank credit, is not only chronically inflationary, it also causes malinvestment, “boom-and-bust” cycles, and brings about a situation of over-indebtedness. Once governments and banks in particular start faltering under their debt load and, as a result, the economy is in danger of contracting, the printing up of additional money appears all too easily to be a policy of choosing the lesser evil to escape the problems that have been caused by credit-produced paper money in the first place. Looking at the world today — in which many economies have been using credit-produced paper monies for decades and where debt loads are overwhelmingly high, the current challenges are in a sense quite similar to those prevailing in the Weimar Republic more than 90 years ago. Now as then, a reform of the monetary order is badly needed; and the sooner the challenge of monetary reform is taken on, the smaller will be the costs of adjustment.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/R4pvx0RRAm4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Mystery Chart Of The Day

Yet another chart that perfectly tracks the performance of the S&P (or Fed balance sheet). Guess what it shows…

 

 

The answer – and in this case perhaps correlation and causation are one and the same…

Opium Production has reached new record highs…

 

With the US illegal drug market growing dramatically (as we noted here), opium supplies have surged

Opium poppy cultivation in Afghanistan rose to a new high of more than 200,000 hectares in 2013, a 36% increase over last year, the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime said Wednesday. The report, part of the agency’s annual survey, indicates a grave trend for the country as U.S. and NATO forces withdraw over the next year.

 

 

The 2013 figure represents the highest total cultivation ever for Afghanistan, surpassing the previous peak of 193,000 hectares in 2007. Total opium production reached roughly 5,500 tons, an increase of 49 percent since 2012. Opium prices fell slightly, but according to the report, the farm-gate value–the price of a crop when the farmer sells it–increased by almost a third. Nearly $1 billion of raw opium came out of Afghanistan last year, accounting for 4% of the country’s GDP.

 

 

The motivations behind opium cultivation are clear. In this year’s U.N. survey, nearly three-quarters of famers said they harvested the crop because of high income from little land, and 44% cited the high sale price of opium. Of the farmers in the survey who never cultivated opium, 60 percent said because it violates Islam.

And as one would expect with high supply, prices (in USD) have dropped…

One has to wonder what is driving all this demand? Perhaps it is the collapse of the middle-class and America being #1 in the world for Fear, Stress, Anger, Divorce, Obesity, Anti-Depressants...

Source: UN


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/QOWQUg3AjX4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Guest Post: How About Ending Social Security And Paying Retirees With Cash?

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Would printing the cash to fund pensions for low-income retirees trigger inflation? It's more of an open question than we might imagine at first glance.

Correspondent D.L.J. recently suggested an alternative way of looking at Social Security–and our entire scheme of central bank-created money. Let's start by noting that the U.S. Treasury does not create new money (commonly known as printing money) to fund the Federal government's deficit spending–it borrows the money by selling Treasury bonds on the global bond market.

The Federal Reserve has the right to create money out of thin air: it digitally creates money which it uses to buy Treasury bonds, mortgages, etc. The new cash ends up in the hands of whomever sold the Fed the bonds and mortgages–usually primary dealers, Wall Street banks, etc.

The Fed also creates credit out of thin by loaning immense sums or establishing lines of credit for "too big to fail" banks and equally insolvent foreign banks. During the 2008-09 global financial crisis, the Fed extended $16 trillion in credit to global banks. That is roughly equivalent to the entire gross domestic product (GDP) of the U.S.

As millions of Baby Boomers start drawing their Social Security benefits, the system has slipped into deficit. The Social Security Administration (SSA) collected $725 billion in Social Security tax revenues and paid $773 billion for benefits and overhead expenses in 2012, a $48 billion deficit. (Recall that employers and employees each pay 7.65% in payroll taxes on earned income, a total payroll tax of 15.3% of which 12.4% is for Social Security and 2.9% is for Medicare.)

The Treasury raised that $48 billion by selling Treasury bonds that accrue interest, basically forever, as the U.S. is running monumental $1+ trillion deficits every year.

Based on the none-too-pleasant historical results of printing money with abandon, many people are convinced that printing money will trigger a devaluation in the dollar that we experience as inflation, i.e. everything costs more because our money is worth less.

Inflation effectively robs everyone who holds dollars, and it is especially destructive to wage earners, as they are less likely to get raises to keep up with inflation as compared to those with capital and unearned income from stocks, bonds, real estate, oil, etc.

High inflation wipes out savings and destroys the underpinnings of the economy. Venezuela is providing a real-time example of what happens when devaluation of the currency and distortions in the economy triggered by that devaluation take hold: the shelves empty of goods and inflation rises to levels that implode the economy (40% to 50% is usually enough to do the trick).

The Fed has created $2.7 trillion in new money since 2008, yet inflation is tame–less than 2% acording to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). There are several reasons why this money creation has not resulted in the high inflation we would normally expect when $400+ billion of new money is created every year:

1. It isn't enough new money to spark inflation in the vast multi-input U.S. economy.

2. Most of it isn't actually going into the economy, so it has had no inflationary effect.

3. The velocity of money is so low that even a few trillion dollars in new money can't trigger inflation.

There are good reasons to conclude each statement has some validity.

The bloated, debt-dependent status quo is so mired in diminishing returns and state-cartel rentier skimming that a strong case can be made that the system needs a rather substantial quantity of new money and credit to be created every year just to keep the system from imploding.

Here is the monetary base, which just hit $3.5 trillion. Note that this is not the same as cash in circulation, but it does show the Fed is still pedal-to-the-metal in terms of creating money out of thin air.

Here is money velocity, diving to new lows.

D.L.J. suggested an alternative to the current system of taxing workers and employers for Social Security, letting the Fed print trillions of new dollars for its banker buddies and borrowing money to fund Social Security deficits that future generations have to pay interest on forever:

Eliminate the Fed (or at least its right to create money) and Social Security, its bogus Trust Funds, its 12.4% (highly regressive) tax altogether and pay retirees with cash printed by the Treasury, not the Fed. Eliminating the Fed (or at a minimum, its ability to create money out of thin air) means there is no "new money" inflationary pressure other than the money printed to pay pension benefits in lieu of Social Security.

Since nobody is paying Social Security taxes, employees and employers both get a hefty 6% tax reduction.

With the system and its promises of a pension to everyone who paid into the system gone, there is no need to pay retirement benefits to those with substantial income from other sources. The program can revert to providing a pension to those with no other substantial income. Those with incomes above $50,000 (i.e. the top 25%) from all sources, earned and unearned, have no need for a Treasury-funded pension; they're hardly at risk of living in a cardboard box. The current system's skewing to lower-income workers would be maintained, so individuals in the top 40% would receive less than those with no other income.

This would slice a major chunk off the annual pension outlays. Let's guesstimate that total outlays would fall to the $600 billion a year range.

The new pension system would not be universal; it would retain the SSA requirement that only those who worked the requisite number of quarters would qualify for a pension.

Would printing and distributing $600 billion a year trigger high inflation? I think that is an open question for the reasons noted above. Is that enough money to unleash inflation in a $16 trillion economy with numerous deflationary pressures? Distributing the newly created cash to retirees rather the Fed's banker buddies will undoubtedly increase the velocity of money, because the new money will be placed in the hands of people who will spend much or most of it.

The government would reduce its liabilities (the bogus Trust Funds) by roughly $4 trillion, and taxpayers will no longer be paying interest on Social Security deficits.

The effect of printing and distributing $600 billion a year is not as straightforward as we might imagine because the economy has many inputs. Consider what would happen once the Fed could no longer print money and use it to suppress interest rates and funnel the cash to its banker cartel.

The stock market would nosedive, interest rates would rise, crushing the bond market, and real estate's current Fed-induced bubble would burst. Trillions of dollars in assets would disappear in a matter of weeks as the economy renormalizes to a state of free-market discovery of asset prices and the end of the Fed's manipulation.

Such a renormalization would be deflationary, as those losing the trillions of dollars in assets will be significantly poorer.

As part of this thought experiment, we can also ask: since the Fed already "prints" $400+ billion a year, would an additional $200-$250 billion in newly created money be enough to tip the $16 trillion U.S. economy into dangerously high inflation?

I think it is fair to say that the answer is contingent on all the other other moving parts and inputs of the economy. If $10 trillion in assets vanishes as a result of the Fed losing its power to manipulate interest rates and reward the bankers, that deflationary tsunami would very likely overwhelm the injection of $600 billion of Treasury-printed pensions.

Would inflation rise in the future after this renormalization? Possibly. But once again the answer depends not simply on the creation of money but all the other factors mentioned above.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/EfhZ7w8WTC4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Total Healthcare "Enrollment" As A Result Of Obamacare: -3.9 Million

“We fumbled the rollout on this health-care law,” could be President Obama’s understatement of the century. In the month-or-so since Obamacare was unleashed 106,185 people enrolled (based on a loose re-definition by the White House). However, in that same period, the WSJ reports a stunning 4.02 million people received policy cancellations. So, in a month, a total of 3,918,205 fewer people are now ‘enrolled’ in a heathcare plan than before Obamacare. So far, California, Florida, and Washington are suffering the most under Obamacare…

 

And here’s the states where the coverage cancellations are the greatest…

 

and the additions and cancellations broken down by state…

 

Source: WSJ


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/wH3giPCG0tw/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Total Healthcare “Enrollment” As A Result Of Obamacare: -3.9 Million

“We fumbled the rollout on this health-care law,” could be President Obama’s understatement of the century. In the month-or-so since Obamacare was unleashed 106,185 people enrolled (based on a loose re-definition by the White House). However, in that same period, the WSJ reports a stunning 4.02 million people received policy cancellations. So, in a month, a total of 3,918,205 fewer people are now ‘enrolled’ in a heathcare plan than before Obamacare. So far, California, Florida, and Washington are suffering the most under Obamacare…

 

And here’s the states where the coverage cancellations are the greatest…

 

and the additions and cancellations broken down by state…

 

Source: WSJ


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/wH3giPCG0tw/story01.htm Tyler Durden