"Overly Optimistic Earnings Estimates Are In Jeopardy"

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/jIjFAZgJMY4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

“Overly Optimistic Earnings Estimates Are In Jeopardy”

Submitted by Lance Roberts of STA Wealth Management,

 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/jIjFAZgJMY4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Chicago Fed's Evans Unveils Federal Reserve's 2014 Year-End S&P 500 Price Target

Minutes ago, the Chicago Fed’s Charlie Evans went dove-retard and tongue-in-cheekly announced that QEternity may have to be increased by 50% in the coming year!

Ignore the fact that the US deficit will be less than half this number in the coming year. More importantly, based on what everyone now knows is the only driver of US equity “market” performance, the Fed is implicitly announcing its 2014-year-end target for the S&P 500 of 2,220 – so BTFATH (because it’s the fundamentals that matter).

 

 

Of course, the question is what happens when the Fed owns the entire Treasury and MBS market? Obviously, nothing bad. Or maybe something, because recall that currently the Fed is monetizing 0.3% of all 10 year equivalents per week, 15% per year. It currently hold 33% of the bond market. Should it hike QEternity by 50%, it means the Fed will own a ridiculous 57% of the entire bond market in 10Y equivalents on December 31, 2014.

And that is how reserve currency status is lost.

h/t @Not_John_Lohman


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/MvDMuTiuxm0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Chicago Fed’s Evans Unveils Federal Reserve’s 2014 Year-End S&P 500 Price Target

Minutes ago, the Chicago Fed’s Charlie Evans went dove-retard and tongue-in-cheekly announced that QEternity may have to be increased by 50% in the coming year!

Ignore the fact that the US deficit will be less than half this number in the coming year. More importantly, based on what everyone now knows is the only driver of US equity “market” performance, the Fed is implicitly announcing its 2014-year-end target for the S&P 500 of 2,220 – so BTFATH (because it’s the fundamentals that matter).

 

 

Of course, the question is what happens when the Fed owns the entire Treasury and MBS market? Obviously, nothing bad. Or maybe something, because recall that currently the Fed is monetizing 0.3% of all 10 year equivalents per week, 15% per year. It currently hold 33% of the bond market. Should it hike QEternity by 50%, it means the Fed will own a ridiculous 57% of the entire bond market in 10Y equivalents on December 31, 2014.

And that is how reserve currency status is lost.

h/t @Not_John_Lohman


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/MvDMuTiuxm0/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Money does not exist

Yesterday the US Senate held hearings on “virtual currencies” (meaning Bitcoin).  Meanwhile the “virtual currency” ran up above $800/USD and it was reported it got above $900.  It pulled back but as of now, is hovering above $700.

It was interesting at the hearing, the so called Bitcoin ‘experts’ included FinCen and the Secret Service.  The focus seemed to be on potential criminal activities in the digital currency (not other benefits such as a replacement currency in the event of a US Dollar collapse, etc.).  

Using phrases such as “money laundering” and “criminal activity” and “child pornography” certainly did not paint a good picture of Bitcoin, for those watching with less knowledge about Finance and Bitcoin, and especially for those who had the hearings on in various bars, restaurants, airports, and other places where viewers were not focused on the hearings but could pickup the occasional keyword such as “drug trafficking.”  Silk Road and a newly discovered Assassination Market have been over reported in the news and used by anti-Bitcoin antagonists as a justification to shut down the use of Bitcoin as much as possible (or at least to make it look dirty, as if users of Bitcoin are all drug dealers and child smut peddlers).  To put things in perspective, it’s been reported that the largest holders of US Dollars next to central banks are drug cartels.  Oh, and banks such as HSBC and others have been involved in the laundering of their US Dollars, some knowingly.

It’s being described as the largest cartel money-laundering scheme in history, and today, HSBC Bank headquartered in London, with offices in the U.S. will forfeit $1.256 billion and enter into a deferred prosecution agreement with the Department of Justice (DOJ). HSBC Bank USA violated the BSA by failing to maintain an effective anti-money laundering program and failed to conduct appropriate due diligence on its foreign correspondent account holders, DOJ said.

But the DOJ is not suggesting we stop using the US Dollar because of it’s use in the drug trade, nor are they suggesting HSBC is shut down because it was laundering money for criminals.  They get fined, and we all move on.  

Virtual Currency?

What is exactly a “virtual currency” ?  Merriam-Webster defines “virtual” as:

very close to being something without actually being it

Ok so Bitcoin is not a virtual currency.  It could be a digital currency, as it’s purely electronic and not in physical form.  But of the Trillions created by the Fed during the QE program, still only $1.3 Trillion of M0 (physical cash & coin), as of July 2013, according to the New York Fed.

 

Note the green line, M2.  (M3 no longer being reported.)  But this chart will suffice to show the discrepancies between M0 and M3.  M0 is less than M1 (red line) by about $700 Billion.  The different between M2 and M1 is still about $8 Trillion.  That means at least $8 Trillion USD exist in digital form, electronically.  So does that imply the US Dollar is also a ‘digital’ or ‘virtual’ currency?  Or are the only ‘real’ US Dollars M0, physical notes?

Money does not exist

Mike Maloney has an excellent series about the differences between “money” and “currency.”  But let’s take things a step further, to divide our economy into 2 simple logical components, things that exist (real economy), and things that don’t (virtual economy).  

Things that DO exist:

  • Tools
  • Machines / Factories
  • Gold, Silver
  • People!
  • Buildings
  • Transportation systems

Things that DO NOT exist, except in our minds, as concepts:

  • Money or currency (it’s electronic entry in your bank account)
  • The markets (again, the markets themselves are virtual, although with commodity markets a virtual contract will result in the delivery of physical goods)
  • Derivatives
  • Law
  • Knowledge
  • Value, i.e. ‘asset prices’
  • Theories, concepts
  • Belief

Paper money exists, yes, but as they say it’s just paper.  If I write a $100 on a napkin even if I’m Ben Bernanke, it will not be accepted by anyone unless they believe they can take said napkin and use it for whatever they need to obtain in the real economy.  What makes physical notes accepted is the belief the US Dollar system, and the Fed, not the paper it’s printed on.

The fact is the US Dollar is not backed by the Fed, although the Fed is the primary emission, the “Prime Mover.”  The US Dollar is backed only by a belief system (as are all other currencies today).  The belief system is backed by the US military (stop believing in USD and bombs will fall shortly after, yes the villagers were right).  So money doesn’t exist, it’s all an illusion.  That is not to cast aspersions on illusions, as a matter of fact, the higher up you go on the Maslow pyramid the more ‘virtual’ things become.  Intelligence i
s non-tangible, as are many of the ideas we hold dear, philosophy, morality, etc.  Our financial system is virtual, it’s all a big video game (to use analogy) with money being the method of accounting (not the store of wealth!).  Money is a means of exchange, not a store of value.

Many lose sight of the fact that money doesn’t exist, they say they ‘need’ money or they ‘have’ money – how can you have something that doesn’t exist?  It must be a boomer concept, too much experimentation in the 60’s.  For those of you who have trouble grasping this, checkout Eric Fromm, “To Have or to Be.”  He explains that when you own things, or have things, they end up owning you!  We won’t get into the legal reality that when you have money in a bank account it’s actually their asset (deposits are not bailment).  Also, anyone who bothered to read the new account opening contracts when they open a forex account would have seen the clauses that state you are basically handing your money over to the broker and should consider yourself lucky if you get any back.

Bitcoin has emerged at an interesting time, at a time when the Fed has declared there’s ‘no limit’ to the amount of USD he will create.  At a time when few other currencies offer stable alternatives. It gives us good perspective to stand back, objectively, and examine the financial system for what it is; a construct, based on concepts, backed by ‘the real economy’ which is dying.

Maybe the conclusion is that the system is just outdated, and we are in a long generational transformation process to a new system, based on technology, not on fiat decree of our central banking lords.

 


    



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Gold Manipulation Probed By U.K. Regulator

As everyone knows, and as we showed yesterday in our infographic du jour, Wall Street manipulates everything, EVERYTHING…. except gold. Which is why were absolutely floored by what just flashed on Bloomberg:

  • GOLD BENCHMARKS SAID TO BE UNDER REVIEW BY U.K. AS PROBE WIDENS

More from Bloomberg: “The FCA review is preliminary and hasn’t risen to the level of a formal investigation, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the matter isn’t public. The person declined to say which gold benchmarks were under scrutiny. One of the key benchmarks is the London gold fixing, which determines the spot price for physical gold and is set twice daily by a panel of five banks.”

No. That’s not true. That’s impossible.

Nobody has ever, ever manipulated gold in the history of St. Wall Street. After all, why else would the CFTC and Alexander Godunov repeat, year after year, that unlike every other product, gold has never been manipulated.

Then again, we aren’t holding our breath until this probe finds that the biggest manipulators in the gold market are central banks themselves nothing.

As for everything else….

Foreign Exchanges

Regulators are looking into whether currency traders have conspired through instant messages to manipulate foreign exchange rates. The currency rates are used to calculate the value of stock and bond indexes.

 

Energy Trading

Banks have been accused of manipulating energy markets in California and other states.

 

Libor

Since early 2008 banks have been caught up in investigations and litigation over alleged manipulations of Libor.

 

Mortgages

Banks have been accused of improper foreclosure practices, selling bonds backed by shoddy mortgages, and misleading investors about the quality of the loans.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/HADxD-mGn1M/story01.htm Tyler Durden

White House Says Story About White House Misleading, Is Misleading

Anyone expecting Obama to come out with his hands up following last night’s story about the made up pre-election jobs numbers, and admit to everything… will be disappointed.

  • STORY ABOUT RIGGED JOBS NUMBERS WAS MISLEADING: WHITE HOUSE

Ok everyone, back to your 29.5 hours a week job, because as everyone knows the White House would never lie to anyone about anything.

More importantly, the Commerce Department, which was referred to investigate the allegations of BLS fraud, thanks White House spokesman Jay Carney for having done its investigative work for it in just a few short hours.

Such government efficiency…


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/hL0j44ZHhg4/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Caption Contest: The Wait For The iBestbuy Begins

… Wait, wait, wait. What do you mean Best Buy isn’t releasing the next retinest, fingerprintscanniest, NSA-trackingest, 6-8 inchiest gizmo and instead these people are simply taking a 10 day break from their highly paid, quality jobs just to wait in line for a $98 TV?

From 19 Action News: Anxious Black Friday shoppers are already camping out at the Best Buy at Chapel Hill in Akron.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/AHUSTH4UGck/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Tim Geithner, January 2013: "Extremely Unlikely Will Take A Job In The World Of Finance"

Submitted by Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

So over the weekend, the world learned that Tiny Turbo Tax Timmy Geithner had accepted a job with private equity giant firm Warburg Pincus. The news was about as much of a surprise as a lie popping out of Barack Obama’s mouth every time he opens it. Nevertheless, the move is particularly hilarious in light of a profile article of Geithner in New York magazine from January of this year, in which the king of cronyism tried to distance himself from Wall Street. Here’s the money-shot paragraph from the piece:

Another fiction that has plagued Geithner is the idea that he is a creature of Wall Street, specifically that he worked for Goldman Sachs. He isn’t sure where it came from—probably just confusion with his predecessor, Hank Paulson, who was the former CEO—but “once it hardened, it was very hard to overcome.” Indeed, he has not really overcome it at all. I can write, right here, in all caps, TIM GEITHNER HAS NEVER WORKED ON WALL STREET, and still someone will comment on our website that he is a bankster who should just go back to Goldman Sachs.

 

Geithner says it’s “extremely unlikely” he will take a job in the world of finance, but the idea that he is somehow, secretly, working hand in hand with that community persists, and every once in a while someone pulls out records of his phone calls and meetings with CEOs as evidence. Geithner is not really sure what to say about that. “I’m the secretary of the Treasury.” He laughs. “How am I supposed to run a financial rescue if I don’t take phone calls from people?”

At least he is making up for lost time. Those conspiracy theorists making stuff up again…

Full article here.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/09nv9dG8tsI/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Tim Geithner, January 2013: “Extremely Unlikely Will Take A Job In The World Of Finance”

Submitted by Michael Krieger of Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

So over the weekend, the world learned that Tiny Turbo Tax Timmy Geithner had accepted a job with private equity giant firm Warburg Pincus. The news was about as much of a surprise as a lie popping out of Barack Obama’s mouth every time he opens it. Nevertheless, the move is particularly hilarious in light of a profile article of Geithner in New York magazine from January of this year, in which the king of cronyism tried to distance himself from Wall Street. Here’s the money-shot paragraph from the piece:

Another fiction that has plagued Geithner is the idea that he is a creature of Wall Street, specifically that he worked for Goldman Sachs. He isn’t sure where it came from—probably just confusion with his predecessor, Hank Paulson, who was the former CEO—but “once it hardened, it was very hard to overcome.” Indeed, he has not really overcome it at all. I can write, right here, in all caps, TIM GEITHNER HAS NEVER WORKED ON WALL STREET, and still someone will comment on our website that he is a bankster who should just go back to Goldman Sachs.

 

Geithner says it’s “extremely unlikely” he will take a job in the world of finance, but the idea that he is somehow, secretly, working hand in hand with that community persists, and every once in a while someone pulls out records of his phone calls and meetings with CEOs as evidence. Geithner is not really sure what to say about that. “I’m the secretary of the Treasury.” He laughs. “How am I supposed to run a financial rescue if I don’t take phone calls from people?”

At least he is making up for lost time. Those conspiracy theorists making stuff up again…

Full article here.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/09nv9dG8tsI/story01.htm Tyler Durden