Tag: finance

Unlike stocks, which see rising prices met with apparently rising demand, it appears the natural laws of supply and (lack of) demand have come to weigh on Alan Greenspan’s latest un-mea-culpa. As we noted previously, even at 40% off, The Map and The Territory seems ‘expensive’ and for once, the maestro is unable to blow a bubble in this particular “asset’s” value.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/PNS-s68e2jo/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Unlike stocks, which see rising prices met with apparently rising demand, it appears the natural laws of supply and (lack of) demand have come to weigh on Alan Greenspan’s latest un-mea-culpa. As we noted previously, even at 40% off, The Map and The Territory seems ‘expensive’ and for once, the maestro is unable to blow a bubble in this particular “asset’s” value.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/PNS-s68e2jo/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Courtesy of Russ Winter of Winter Actionables 

(Originally published on Dec. 20)

JP Morgan is procuring gold on behalf of China. That’s according to TPMetalsReport’s “Turd Ferguson,” who wrote an article on this topic on Wednesday. I think it’s basically true, keeping in mind that other offshore agents are working for China through JP Morgan. It’s logical when one considers that JPM is the largest bullion bankster and, as the report indicates, it has a huge long position [see “One for the Ages“]. China and its agents hunt where there is treasure.

Here’s how I think it works: The Peoples Bank of China and sovereign wealth funds don’t operate directly with JP Morgan but through offshore funds and representatives. Many are just hired guns, or even American or British firms. They procure gold for China’s huge appetite.

Ferguson writes that the forensics point to kilobars showing up in JPM’s customer warehouses, which don’t conform to normal Comex standards. But who is looking anyway. I believe it is quite logical that recently refined kilobars could show up in JPM’s customer warehouses. After all, a Chinese firm now owns Chase Manhattan Plaza, which contains a big gold vault. The point is that this is a logical transit point on the way to China, meaning it probably won’t stay there long. At the moment, there are nearly 1.14 million ounces being held in JPM’s customer accounts.

Let’s dispense with the absurd notion that these are bars recycled back out of China. Absolutely not. Once it goes into China’s vault, it’s like going into a black hole. Remember the interview Koos Jansen conducted with the chief market strategist of Anglo Far-East for insights into the gold refinery business. He said:

“In China, there are six LBMA refineries, but he has never seen a Chinese gold bar. They’re keeping it all. Gold that goes into China is like going into a black-hole.”

The bottom line on this theory it that is logical and likely that a portion of the huge JPM long position demonstrated by the banker participation report could represent gold destined for China on behalf of these agents. As Ferguson asserts: By extension, China is a party to the bullion bankster net long position. But for the Chinese, this is not just a paper long. It’s a mechanism to take physical gold.

Meanwhile, gold is finally being settled out of the puny deliverable or registered stash on the Comex, which dropped to 490,000 ounces today. Here, JPM holds only 87,071 ounces.

There has been some speculation as to who keeps indiscriminately selling gold in the paper market. Central banks are mentioned a lot. However, at these prices, I don’t think it serves the interests of the U.S. to create conditions whereby China grabs thousands of tonnes of cheap gold in lieu of U.S. Treasuries. Nor is it in U.S. interest to encourage China to make an announcement that the PBoC holds more gold than Fort Knox. It is a little thing called prestige and waving a big stick.

That’s why I keep coming back to a rogue or a whale or series of whales within the fund or speculative community. These function as foils and allow the bullion banksters and Chinese to get cheap gold. During the housing bubble, Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers and AIG were the aggressive players at the margin that allowed the extreme risk and froth in that market. Something similar is going on in the short gold trade. New commitment of trader data released Friday by the CFTC will show the extent through last Tuesday (before the FOMC announcement).

Incidentally, I think these short attacks as occurring in the middle of the night. More accurately, a slinger shows up in the access market after London opens or in the Globex session. Since I am up and awake in Europe during that period, I can see the plunges and the rapid quick-hit volume on the Globex during the speculative attacks. Afterward, when the Comex opens, volume tends to shrivel. Late in the session yesterday, the Comex exhibited signs that some remaining spec longs were being margin liquidated. Those are 2,000- to 3,000-contract sell offs, that are then reversed and have a completely different hallmark from a spec short attack.

Thursday in the comments section on my site, I remarked that GLD showed signs of a high-volume final capitulation. Volume was 90% higher than average. I said that we could see a large extraction. But only 125,400 ounces came out of GLD SPDR. There could still be a delayed release from GLD today, but that seems like chump change for such intense post Mini Me taper market action. More and more, the forensics point to extremely offside slingers driving this action through off-the-deep-end short sales, much more so than western gold liquidations, margin calls and central banks.

Meanwhile on the Shanghai Exchange, it was a very busy night as a stunning 21,392 kg (754,585 oz) was physically delivered. Gold procurement in China appears to be a well oiled machine at this point and gold extraction out of GLD looks exhausted. For its part, the Chinese must be sending the slinger speculators a last minute Christmas card as we speak.

During the session, Pretium released its reserves and resources numbers for Valley of the Kings. This does not include the other previous zones in PVG’s district. It uses a very conservative 5-gram cutoff. Notice that the inferred — which I think is the more recent step-out holes that hit new veins — is 25.6 grams. And here is what’s especially bullish about this report: They only used 0.06 tonnes from the Cleopatra vein,which will be evaluated separately. This is very conservative, making it all the harder to believe they were subjected to such caca a few month ago.

 

[Subscribe to Winter Actionables here.] 

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/PDFXtz8CC4A/story01.htm ilene

Because there is no more impressive way to mourn celebrate the depression recovery, than to get increasingly more hammered at a 10% Year over Year growth pace.

And remember: with booze prices soaring (deflation everywhere… except in liquor), it seems nothing can stand between the average broke “wealth-effected” American and their bottle.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/HrvCP56pO44/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Because there is no more impressive way to mourn celebrate the depression recovery, than to get increasingly more hammered at a 10% Year over Year growth pace.

And remember: with booze prices soaring (deflation everywhere… except in liquor), it seems nothing can stand between the average broke “wealth-effected” American and their bottle.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/HrvCP56pO44/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Massachusetts State police have seized more than 1200 packets of heroin following a traffic stop in the town of Hatfield. CNN reports three people face charges of conspiracy to violate drug laws and possession charges; but in an effort to distinguish their particular ‘brand’ of addictive chemical, the providers labeled the stash ‘Obamacare’. As the police note, “It’s just a branding so you can say if this brand is good or bad.” – we wonder which?

Via CNN,

What do heroin and Obamacare have in common?

Nothing — save for more than 1,200 packets of heroin that had the words “Obama Care” and “Kurt Cobain” printed in red on the packaging that Massachusetts State Police say they uncovered in a drug bust.

State police said the labels are nothing more than marketing ploys.

“It’s a branding by the particular drug dealer so when the drug gets out to the population, you know what it is,” said Police Lt. Daniel Richard. “It’s just a branding so you can say if this brand is good or bad. It’s like putting Pepsi or Coca-Cola on a bottle.”

Trooper Joseph Petty stopped a vehicle with four people in the Town of Hatfield on Friday morning after noticing the vehicle was committing several traffic violations.

 

…

 

“If you like your heroin, you can keep your heroin…”

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/jnnPgSR5JC8/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Some of you know that I founded a business called Prophet way back in 1992 and, among dozens of other products, we created ProphetCharts. I use this product to this day (constantly, in fact), and even though Prophet was sold nearly nine years ago, and its products were frozen in time, ProphetCharts is still superb and, for me, irreplaceable.

The main reason ProphetCharts has stood the test of time is because I was so relentless about polishing the product. Any time there was the smallest irksome problem, or something that could be just a little bit better, I would gripe about it until it was perfect. If I only had the last nine years to continue griping, God knows how cool ProphetCharts would be by now.

Sadly, government-created software products utterly lack this kind of level of care. Hired guns receive staggering fortunes to write fourth-rate code, and it shows. The federal ObamaCare web site exceeded the billion dollar mark a while ago, and dozens of states have had to create their own web sites. The state of my residence, California, is one of these, and their site is Covered California (which is littered, as you might guess, with images of all kinds of “diverse” families – – I’m just waiting to hit the page where the family represented is a white man, a black guy, and they’re both in wheelchairs).

I used the site, and although it didn’t bomb the way I’ve heard the federal site does, it’s far from perfect; here’s just one little tidbit from a help page:

Ummm. So let’s see here. This “help” page tells us:

1. The Browse button removes a document;
2. The Upload button lets you see at a document;
3. The Back button (oh, sorry, “buten”) lets you look at a document (which, I suppose, is different than seeing);
4. The Remove link uploads a document
5. The View link (errr, “butten”) takes you to the prior page.

Jesus Lord, my God in heaven, did anyone even look at this even once? Every single line is wrong. EVERY ONE. In fact, some links have are wrong in more than one way – – somewhat of a triumph, I think. Who knew there were so many ways to spell “button”?

Governments suck. The contractors that are hired by them suck even worse. Or, at a minimum, they are inept opportunists. I can’t blame them, though. If someone handed me a zillion dollar check that I could just outsource to overseas programmers, I’d embrace the opportunity as well. Congratulations, taxpayers! The joke’s on you. But don’t worry. If you need help, just click the buten.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/XUshO8i_cEs/story01.htm Tim Knight from Slope of Hope

The thinner market conditions that will prevail now until early next year should not obscure the general investment climate.  For the first time in four years, the investors are feeling better about the high income countries than the lower income countries.

 

There are exceptions, of course, as there is for nearly any generalization.  Among lower income countries, Mexico, Israel and South Korea remain attractive, while among the high income countries, Canada and Australia are vulnerable.  

 

With the Fed’s decision to taper, it is tempting to accept, as many have suggested, that peak accommodation is behind us.  Yet to do so may be mistaken.  It is to confuse what the Fed announced. It is going to continue to buy Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities, just, (arguably) a economically insignificant amount less.  Its balance sheet expansion has not peaked. 

 

Even assuming that Bernanke’s forward guidance is accurate and the Fed announces $10 bln tapering a meeting, the balance sheet will not peak until late 2014, and may drift higher from there if it continues to recycle maturing/redemption issues.  Moreover, the Fed has consistently argued that the real impact comes not so much from the flow but from the accumulated stock of holdings (kept off the market, displacing investors).  

 

US fiscal policy is not as tight as had been expected, given the new budget agreement. However, Republicans are still demanding new spending cuts in exchange for lifting the debt ceiling. President Obama has refused to negotiate over paying for the spending that has already been authorized. Another showdown appears likely. 

 

The US revised up Q3 US GDP to an impressive 4.1%, due to increasing spending on consumer services and intellectual property.  Although inventories were a powerful contributor, final sales still rose a strong 2.5%.  The US economy is unlikely to match that in Q4, though inventories have stayed high in the first part of the quarter and consumption appears to have ticked up.   Growth in Q4 appears to be tracking just above 2%.  

 

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan continues to buy the equivalent of $75 bln a month of various assets, including JGBs, ETFs, and REITS.   Many, including ourselves, expect the BOJ to step up its asset purchases after the impact of the retail sales tax hike on April 1.

 

Fiscal policy remains accommodative.  Over this past weekend, the Japanese government unveiled the budget for the new fiscal year and it includes a 3.5% increase in spending to JPY95.88 trillion (~$920 bln).    Formal cabinet approval is likely Tuesday.

 

That said, the government plans to reduce the new bond issuance to JPY41.25 trillion, which is a JPY1.6 trillion less than will be issued in the current fiscal year.   The higher tax revenues to do corporate profits and the sales tax hike are (optimistically) projected to boost the government’s income by 15%.

 

Growth has slowed after the initial Abenomics stimulus faded.  The economy grew (saar) 4.5% in the Jan-Mar quarter and then a still strong 3.6% in the Apr-Jun quarter, before slowing to 1.1% in Q3.  There may be some pick up in first few months of next year, if households were to buy big ticket items, such as white goods, before the sales tax goes into effect. 

 

That said, given the doubling of the capital gains tax as of Jan 1, the Nikkei is holding in better than we expected.  It gapped to new highs for the year, following the yen’s slide in response to the Fed’s tapering announcement.   

 

There is little latitude on fiscal policy in the euro area, but monetary policy has not be exhausted. That does not mean a negative deposit rate or bond purchases are the next step.  Instead, ECB officials seem particularly interested in linking new (cheap) funding to new lending.   Some effort to strengthen the securitization market may also be seen, either directly or through the collateral rules.

 

European officials seem to be willing to draw a distinction between good deflation, which is seen as necessary to boost the competitiveness in the periphery, in lieu of a currency devaluation, and bad deflation that is ruinous.   Officials argue, in effect, that the euro area is experiencing good disinflation.  Until this assessment changes, it is difficult to envision the ECB taking extreme measures, like a negative deposit rate or outright bond purchases.  

 

Nevertheless, the early repayment of the LTRO and other factors have seen excess liquidity dry up. The ECB is having difficulty in recent weeks to neutralize the bond purchases under Trichet’s SMP program.   Consider that at the end of 2012, EONIA spiked to a little more than 13 bp.  Now the 20-day average is above that.  EONIA has been trading consistently above the effective Fed funds rate for more As EONIA turns more volatility and stays elevated levels, the ECB may become increasing concerned about the effective transmission of monetary policy, again.

 

Many institutional investors expect European equities to outperform US shares in the months ahead.  The arguments often heard on based on valuation and that European monetary policy will be more supportive.  

 

China’s money market rates have spiked higher as well.  However, in China, liquidity remains ample and the PBOC appears to trying to get banks to learn how to manage it better.  Since the major squeeze in June, conditions have been somewhat calmer, but pressure is typically evident at month and quarter ends.  The 7-day repo rate jumped about 240 bp last week to 6.62%, a level not seen in six months  

 

As is its modus operandi, the PBOC did inject liquidity, but the CNY300 bln ( almost $50 bln) provided in the second half of last week was insufficient to stop money market rates from climbing further.   We suspect it was sufficient though to signal that it was not policy driving rates up.   At the same time, Chinese officials may be more concerned about the persistent increase in long-term rates.  

 

Before the weekend, the yield on China’s 10-year bond climbed to 5.34%,  new high since at least 2006.  It closed at 5.26%, a 43 bp increase on the week.    Chinese shares have also been selling off.   The Shanghai Composite has a 9-day losing streak going into the final full week of the year.  The 2.0% decline before the weekend was the largest in several months.  Officials from the Shanghai Stock Exchange attributed what they called erratic price action in several issues to sales by Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/RP2oszRW8cU/story01.htm Marc To Market

Presented with absolutely no “be careful what you wish for” comments…

 

h/t Sunday Funnies via The Burning Platform blog

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/rgwpze7rOTs/story01.htm Tyler Durden