Tag: news

Authored by Matthew Andersson via AmericanThinker.com,

Critics may be misreading the recent NATO summit.  

It looks to them as if the U.S. is unilaterally siding with Europe against Russia.  

President Trump is smarter: he knows who has the winning hand, and his direct communications with his peers, Xi and Putin, are not always public. 

President Trump’s earliest critical instincts toward the EU and NATO still hold. While the U.S. is currently extending them some diplomatic courtesy and limited support, Europe is ultimately surrounded on all sides by powers that make it irrelevant in global influence terms.  Europe has put itself into this predicament, due to its own domestic economic decline from bad policy choices.  It is using war as a way to revive its fortunes.  Its odds are long. 

The EU is surrounded economically by the U.S. to the west; by Russia and China to the east, by a vast Arctic territory to the north that it cannot control, and by India and a rising Middle East power, Israel, to the south. Europe has no strategic maneuvering room. It has limited prospects to reemerge as a serious power, and NATO is long past relevancy, and solvency.  

Since his first term, President Trump has been right about Russia, and NATO.  

Being “right” means understanding Russia’s long-term economic and trade importance, and appreciating its military prowess. Along with China and the U.S., it makes up the superpower triad. Being right also means he understands that the days are numbered for the EU and NATO, and that the world has changed without them.

After the Anchorage meeting with President Trump, President Putin invited his counterpart to Moscow: Trump’s guarded reply was a reminder that productive relations may be welcome by both leaders, but each is also operating in and surrounded by a complex defense and foreign affairs tradition that doesn’t trust the other side.  Some have called this the “crucible of belief,” and past experience is hard to overcome. Change will happen slowly. 

Europe is part of that shared Eurasian landmass, and its security, but “Europe” is not a unified, single country.  Even within its own limited Western sphere, it has been a region constantly engaged in rivalry and war.  There was a period after Napoleon — roughly a hundred years — where relative peace was enjoyed.  But the 20th century has been just the opposite: a nearly unbroken chain of war — regional, revolutionary, world, and cold — and now, a new 21st century war is increasingly seen as inevitable.

There are many political, social, and institutional explanations, but economic decline is at the heart of why the EU is determined to provoke Russia (and why it is pleading before the U.S.).

If Germany, France and the U.K. were strongly led, however, with robust domestic industrial growth, controlled borders via immigration, and with less external energy dependence, if not facing domestic energy bankruptcy, such a conflict would not be necessary, or given any serious consideration. 

In recent history, one only has to review Angela Merkel’s disastrous “green energy” policy, deindustrialization, open borders, and the idling of German nuclear power, as a strong explanation.  She fell completely for naive progressive ideology which asserts that oil no longer matters.  

But for President Trump, the U.S. was going down the same path.

France and the U.K. are just as bad in their string of weak leaders, uncontrolled borders, domestic violence from cultures foreign to their own, and deindustrialization and outsourcing. It is little wonder that Europe’s “leaders” are now economically trapped, and are turning to war as a desperate form of economic recovery.

NATO’s putative head, Mark Rutte, was recently in the White House, pitching for war and U.S. financial backing, with slides and charts that looked more like a failed business recovery plan.  The old saying “be careful what you ask for” may be relevant, as NATO is functioning as a proxy for Western Europe, and looking to the U.S. as its pre-bankruptcy sponsor.  President Trump has seen this before.

There are obviously many other interests and players driving this strategy, but German-French-British decline may be the largest factor. Scandinavia is somewhat immune, especially Norway with its natural resources and capital, but it is susceptible to European political and policy contamination. 

Economic historian Walt Rostow, a White House national security advisor to U.S. presidents Eisenhower, Kennedy and Johnson, provided a powerful economic model that goes a long way to partly explain why Eurasia, and Europe, have always been unstable and in conflict.  His “The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto,” maps how countries grow in relative stages of maturity.

But it also predicts how countries will turn to war when those stages are challenged, interrupted, or allowed through poor leadership, or state interference, to stagnate or backslide. Europe has slid backwards from an advanced industrial and colonial power, to an effective open border welfare state, led by a weak political class with no plans, ideas, commitment, or national loyalties.

Russia’s Kremlin has recently announced that its Special Military Operation in Ukraine has been converted to formal war.  While predicting its development is problematic, Russia’s power advantage is so overwhelming that NATO can only been seen as engaging in effective suicide.  Given Europe’s cultural tendency to existentialist gloom, perhaps it is understandable.

When war finally stops, as it must, it usually results in new borders, relationships, alliances, and deals being formed.  NATO and Europe seem to be counting on the chaos of war as a path out of their own weakness.

The U.S. may lend some technical military support to them as a simple matter of arms sales, but this may be their own self-inflicted, poisoned chalice. 

And in the end, the U.S., Russia, and China will simply resume their global dominance and power alliance. The EU will likely collapse or shrink; NATO will finally be decommissioned, and the old Atlantic Alliance will bypass Europe and align economically with Eurasia’s east and south — because that is where the power is.  

That is what the stages of growth predict.

The EU is also going to be further eclipsed commercially and militarily and by a rising Israel-dominated Middle East, because they know what they want, they have a plan, and they know how to fight.  European bureaucrats like Rutte, Macron, Merz, and von der Leyen do not, and face an interesting fate when they finally realize that this battle is likely their last political stand.

The citizens of Europe may be relieved. 

Authored by Eric Utter via AmericanThinker.com,

Many have been asking lately if the onslaught of Islam or the rapid rise of Marxism is more likely to destroy the United States.

The correct answer is that they both have the capability to do so.

If unchecked, together they will undoubtedly see to our demise.

Which one would ultimately prevail has been the subject of a few articles of late and will be the subject of one of mine in the not-too-distant future.

This one, however, will focus on Muslims and Islam. I will attempt to address the advance of the Democratic Socialists of America/Marxism/communism in the coming days, as well.

First off, it should not need to be said (yet again) that Islam and Sharia law are utterly, irretrievably incompatible with a free democratic republic, let alone a country founded on Christian principles and the Judeo-Christian work ethic.

Islam demands the subjugation of all non-Muslims, or “infidels.” Virtually all the nations of the Middle East and part of Asia that are now Muslim were once Christian. There is a reason for that. And it is not peaceful, logical, rational persuasion. The simple, inarguable historical fact is that, whenever Muslim populations swell in a given country, that country is almost certainly fated to be ruled by the dictates of the Quran. This is a virtual certainty unless “good” Christians (and others) find it in themselves to fight back. (And, at some point, one has to ask how “good, decent and moral” is a person who lets his family, neighbors, and nation be usurped by those who are O.K. with child rape and who worship violence and death.)

And then there is the staggering fraud. It appears that much of the money local, state, and federal governments extract from hard-working taxpayers is subsequently stolen, much of it by Somali fraudsters.

This is over and above the mind-blowing amounts of free stuff bestowed on illegal aliens, many of whom are Muslim.

Contemptible asshats like Govs. Gavin “Slick” Newsom and “Tampon” Timmy Walz pretend to disapprove of this unprecedented and illegal transfer of wealth from citizens to “undocumented immigrants,” even as they foster and cover for it.

And they are both still in office. Sad and incredible.

So New York City Mayor Mamdani‘s wife flies off to an Islamic retreat on the island of Mallorca on July 3rd, the day before America’s 250th birthday celebration, and one of his top officials made plans to meet with Iran’s ambassador and permanent representative to the United Nations without informing anyone, a meeting called off after the State Department got wind of it.

The People’s Republic of Minnesota sports the highest Somali population in the nation, one buttressed by scams of almost unimaginable magnitude.

From the Feeding Our Future scam to countless childless daycares to sham trucking companies, autism centers, and home health care firms, this state sports more than one town nicknamed “Little Mogadishu.”

One of those cities, St. Cloud, hosted a Somalia Independence Day celebration on July 3rd, during which a U.S. flag was flown upside down on a city flagpole.

Event organizers outlandishly claimed that it was an accident, unintentional, a mistake. Sure. Not one of the event organizers, 500-plus attendees, local politicians, or members of organizations such as the AFL-CIO and the absurdly named Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party (DFL), who had booths at the festive extravaganza, noticed the “error?” The folks who slowly ran Old Glory up the pole never noticed that it was inverted? Right. And Dr. Fauci was entirely unaware of the gain-of function research at the Wuhan Lab.

Speaking of New Somalia Minnesota, which has already changed its flag, apparently to honor its countless Somali Muslim “refugees,” an increasing number of kids in ever-growing Somali youth gangs are expressing their appreciation for all the state has done to welcome and care for them by shooting some of its residents.

Ramsey County Sheriff Bob Fletcher said that there have been more than 100 Somali gang-related shootings in just the past two years. Predictably, this fact prompted far-left Democratic Minneapolis City Council vice president Jamal Osman to state: “Somali youth deserve investment, dignity, opportunity, and respect — not public officials using their platform to stereotype them.” Shockingly, Osman himself is a Somali immigrant. I mean, so they shot a few people. They’re just rambunctious kids. Cut them some slack! Right?

If the stupefying immigrant fraud and attendant violence isn’t reined in by “authorities,” fewer and fewer people will keep playing by the rules. Understandably. Societal collapse will shortly ensue.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of ZeroHedge.

Authored by Lawrence Wilson via The Epoch Times,

Affordable Care Act premiums rose sharply in 2026 and are likely to continue to do so in 2027, based on early rate change filings by some insurers.

Of the 77 insurers whose proposed rates are now publicly available, the median proposed premium increase is 14 percent, according to a July 8 report by health information group Peterson-KFF Health System Tracker.

The primary reason given for the proposed rate hikes is that the insured population under the Affordable Care Act – former President Barack Obama’s health care law, known as Obamacare – is likely to be smaller and sicker than this year’s.

Enrollment in the program dropped by about 3 million this year, and the report estimates that healthier people were more likely to withdraw from the program.

Some experts say that the fall-off in participation was driven by the fall-off of fraudulent enrollments or of participants who had been enrolled unknowingly.

This would be the fifth consecutive year of premium increases in the program. Last year’s median proposed change was 18 percent. The final median change was 20 percent, according to the report.

The benchmark silver premium, which is used to set subsidy rates, increased by about 25 percent in 2026, according to KFF.

Initial premium rates for 2027 were filed in mid-June and will be finalized by Aug. 12, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

The Peterson-KFF analysis was based on 77 plans across 17 jurisdictions.

Those were Connecticut, the District of Columbia, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, and Washington. However, only partial data were available for Hawaii, Illinois, and Texas.

For 2026, 183 health plan issuers are participating in Obamacare, according to the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services.

Despite the expiration of the enhanced subsidies, the vast majority (87 percent) of 2026 Obamacare enrollees receive an advance premium tax credit, according to the Healthcare Financial Management Association.

The average enrollee who gets a federal subsidy receives a $650 credit, leaving a $96 monthly premium, according to data provided by KFF.

Subsidies are available to Americans with a household income of between 100 percent and 400 percent of the federal poverty level. That equates to about $15,600 to $62,600 for an individual or about $32,200 to $128,600 for a family of four.

Current Obamacare enrollment is about 19.2 million – the highest for any year except 2025.

Georgetown University’s Center on Health Insurance Reforms published a similar preliminary analysis of 2027 rates on June 18. That report forecasted an enrollment decline of 17 percent to 26 percent in the individual market.

The Georgetown report estimates rate hikes ranging from about 7 percent in Vermont to about 22 percent in Washington.

Final rates for Obamacare plans will be posted in October. Open enrollment begins on Nov. 1.

By Eric Peters, CIO of One River Asset Management

“President Putin said, ‘I would love to meet Zelensky in Moscow.’ And I said, ‘I don’t think…you know, I have to put myself in his position. I don’t know that he’d go to Moscow,” said Trump, seated next to Zelensky in the Oval Office, the two of them discussing Russia’s war on Ukraine. “Maybe he would. Would you go to Moscow?” Trump asked Zelensky, putting him on the spot, cameras snapping away. “It’s difficult. There are a lot of Ukrainian drones there,” answered Zelensky, unable to suppress a smile. “That’s right,” said Trump. “It’s dangerous,” laughed Zelensky.

Human beings really are the best. We can adapt to the sickest crap. And if we really can’t stop ourselves from killing one another, may as well start joking about it. Iran’s Larijani joked that the IRGC could take Trump out with a micro-drone while sunbathing at Mar-a-Lago. Trump told Fox News that it’s been a long time since he’s been sunbathing, “Maybe I was around 7 or so. I’m not too big into it.”

It wasn’t long ago that the Iran war seemed like a big deal. It used to be that killing heads of state was taboo. And I can remember when people thought closing Hormuz would spark a global depression. Russia’s biggest industrialist, Andrey Melnichenko, warned of the potential for a horrifying outcome if Russia continues down its self-destructive path. I’m pretty sure he was hinting that Putin might use a tactical nuclear weapon if backed into a corner.

I first saw a philosophical justification for a preemptive tactical nuke strike 2mths ago [here]. Apparently, now that humans have adapted to the doctrine of mutually assured destruction, our thermonuclear nukes have become a bit of a joke, because no one would dare ever use one. The VIX index naturally declined to 15. Which mechanically forces volatility-controlled investment strategies to take more risk. Lifting equity prices. Lowering volatility. Inviting volatility sellers. Just like every other late market cycle. After a while it honestly gets kind of funny. 

Artificial Intelligence+

To break dependence on Western technology and drive a new era of growth, in 2024 Beijing explicitly categorized its industrial focus into:

1. Six Future Industries (long-term, frontier technologies) and
2. Six Emerging Pillar Industries (near-term economic drivers).

Then in Aug 2025, Beijing formalized an “Artificial Intelligence+” initiative, which treats AI as foundational, cross-cutting tech – like electricity or infrastructure – rather than a standalone sector. The initiative emphasizes deep AI integration across The Sixes. 

The Six Future Industries are frontier technologies that Beijing seeks to establish first-mover advantage and dictate global standards over 10yrs. China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology established six broad overarching categories (Future Manufacturing, Information, Materials, Energy, Space, Health). These translate into six specific priorities: Embodied Artificial Intelligence, Brain-Computer Interfaces, Quantum Technology, Hydrogen & Nuclear Fusion Energy, Biomanufacturing, and 6G Mobile Communications. 

The Six Emerging Pillar Industries are to drive immediate, massive economic output.

• Integrated Circuits: domestic semiconductor manufacturing to bypass US export controls.
• Low-Altitude Economy: drones, flying cars, and infrastructure to manage low-altitude airspace.
• Intelligent Robots: automation hardware for factories/logistics.
• Aviation and Aerospace: commercial spaceflight, satellite networks, domestic commercial aircraft.
• Energy Storage: advanced battery tech to support the grid.
• Biomedicine: advanced pharmaceuticals and medical equipment.

Ten Basis Points:

“It’s going to be China or the US,” said the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech names, macro themes. “A European sovereign AI is a pipe dream – they think Mistral will be their LLM and they’ll build data centers? Really? How exactly?” he asked. “They need Nvidia. They need a tech stack that has emerged from American and Asian IP that combines to form these magical machines that you throw a model into.” To create intelligence. “And what happens to these nations that can’t afford tokens in the next few years? How do India and Brazil and all these second-tier companies even compete?”

“We’ve entered an era where the biggest of the big – Google, Microsoft, SpaceX, Tesla, even JP Morgan – will be accessing tokens in ways that is going to catapult their businesses ahead of everybody else,” continued the CIO. “This sort of faux debate over cheap open-source AI versus expensive Anthropic is nonsense. There’s a shortage of intelligence – pure and simple – we’re below ten basis points of market penetration in this stuff across the global economy, why are people even having a debate over this?”

“Given all the component shortages and constraints, and the anti-AI populist backlash, we could see a horrific market crash along the way, but we haven’t yet diffused this technology across the economy to the degree that it can be useful,” he continued. My Tesla drives me everywhere. I’m a super user, virtually alone. But in 10 years, no one will drive. “We have zero AI in  regulated processes within banks, healthcare companies and insurance companies because the errors and hallucination are being ironed out.” But they will be. “This could be the last great bull market in technology. What could eclipse superintelligence?” 

Anecdote:

“As we know the two principal players and their mentor, I take their words and actions as a serious roadmap,” said the CIO. We were discussing Bessent’s speech at the Economic Club of New York [here] and Warsh’s press conference following his first FOMC meeting [here]. “Much like the Chinese Communist Party 5-year plans, we’re glimpsing the future for American economic policy. Having watched the Chinese game the global trading system to the point that it broke leads me to believe it should be reassembled in Scott’s vision for something more equitable,” continued the CIO, an American who built his firm in Asia, investing in equities, tech, macro themes.

“AI competition with China is also central to this strategy. It’s possible that like Reagan spending Gorbachev into the ground, we could cause the Chinese system to hit the wall.” Interesting.

“Beijing’s national data center strategy is to build massive scale in token factories.” CXMT is their national DRAM champion and is about to IPO. Its disclosures reveal deep inefficiencies. Beijing will inevitably subsidize its losses. “Chinese open-source models are all the rage on Twitter. They’re not as good for complex thinking but very good at specific tasks and sub agent work. Therefore, as these models sit on US tech stacks, no Chinese innovator is making money – AWS makes the money for producing the token,” he said.

“Having already sunk massive amounts into EV, Solar, and other areas, one day the Chinese may well hit a wall, especially given they have yet to tackle their property sector.” The chronic decline in Chinese property prices has caused a depression in domestic consumption.

“If Scott’s strategy works and allied nations realize it’s better to play along then not, the Chinese export markets could become smaller precisely when they need them most. At the same time Taiwan, Singapore, Korea, and Hong Kong do stuff we need so we could work more diplomatically with them as they are no longer the Asian Tigers of our youth,” he said.

“Let’s see how it plays out but it’s fascinating and why guys like us stay in the game.”

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

The United States was the largest crude oil producer in the world in 2025, outputting a “record-high” 13.6 million barrels per day (bpd), according to a July 9 statement from the Energy Information Administration (EIA).

America’s output was far ahead of second-placed Russia, which produced 9.9 million bpd. Saudi Arabia came in third with 9.6 million bpd, with Canada in the fourth spot at 5 million bpd. The difference in oil output between the United States and other top producers widened last year, with Russian supplies mostly remaining unchanged year-over-year while Saudi Arabia saw a modest increase.

The 13.6 million bpd output breaks the previous U.S. and global production record of 13.2 million bpd set in 2024. The United States first overtook Russia as the top global oil producer in 2018 and has since retained the number one spot.

EIA attributed the consistently high oil production in the United States to “continued gains in drilling productivity and operational efficiency across key shale basins, which allow operators to extract more oil per well.”

Powered by shale development, the United States has become not only the top crude oil producer “but the largest producer of crude oil ever,” the agency said.

In addition to record-high production last year, exports have been climbing. In April, U.S. exports of crude oil and petroleum products hit a record, with crude oil exports averaging 5.6 million bpd, 21 percent higher than the previous record from December 2023, the EIA said in a July 8 statement.

The exports of finished petroleum products, including jet fuel and motor gasoline, hit the highest level since December 2024.

The record-high exports in April 2026 came amid disruptions to energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz due to the U.S.–Iran war, a development that ended up boosting global demand for American energy. Brent crude oil futures had hit a peak of over $126 per barrel in April. Prices have since come down and ended Friday at around $76.

In its latest statement, EIA said the jump in oil production last year happened despite oil prices being lower, with the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) price dropping from an average of $77 per barrel in 2024 to $65 per barrel in 2025. WTI is a benchmark for crude oil produced in the United States.

Moreover, EIA predicts America’s crude oil production to be close to 13.7 million bpd this year and to rise to 14.2 million bpd in 2027.

Boosting Oil Production

The higher oil output follows multiple actions taken by the Trump administration aimed at boosting production.

In November 2025, the administration announced the approval of new oil drilling leases off the coasts of Alaska, Florida, and California.

In January this year, the administration initiated the first step to offering oil and gas drilling leases in California, with the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management seeking information on potential lease areas to auction as early as next year.

In March, the Department of the Interior conducted an oil lease sale in the National Petroleum Reserve–Alaska, the first since 2019.

This action came under criticism from the environmental group Sierra Club. Mike Scott, Sierra Club’s oil and gas campaign manager, in a March 18 statement, accused President Donald Trump of making oil corporation CEOs richer at the cost of the environment.

“The Western Arctic is not just any landscape—it’s one of the last true wild places in the country, home to rare and threatened wildlife and cultures that have subsisted on the land for thousands of years,” Scott said.

“Drilling in the Arctic won’t solve our energy crisis, but it will cause irreversible damage to these pristine landscapes. Big Oil has been champing at the bit to get its hands on these lands, and Trump is making their wishes come true.”

Secretary of the Interior Doug Burgum had said, post the lease sale in Alaska, that the sale underscored the reserve’s vital role in strengthening America’s energy security.

The reserve “was created to support our nation’s energy needs, and this successful sale demonstrates what’s possible when we align responsible development with that original purpose,” Burgum said. “Revenues from these leases will help bolster local communities, create good‑paying jobs, and ensure that Alaska continues to be a cornerstone of America’s domestic energy production.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Justice has decided to ditch the oil and gas leasing restrictions imposed by the prior administration in the Coastal Plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Alaska and its industrial development and export authority had filed lawsuits challenging the restrictions.

On July 7, the department said that these restrictions violated federal law and asked the court to dismiss the lawsuits.

U.S. acting Attorney General Todd Blanche said that the prior administration’s actions “improperly limited” Alaska’s energy potential through “unreasonable” regulations. “This settlement supports the Trump administration’s commitment to secure American energy independence and our national security for generations to come.”

The U.S. economy grew 2.1% in real terms in 2025, but that national figure tells only part of the story. While every state economy expanded, some grew nearly ten times faster than others.

Using the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), this map, via Visual Capitalist’s Gabriel Cohen, compares real GDP growth across all 50 states and Washington, D.C.

The Sun Belt Ascendant

No states grew more in 2025 than Florida and South Carolina, which both expanded by 3.1%. Their strong growth rates reflect the continued economic momentum of the American South and the broader Sun Belt.

Arkansas (2.2%), North Carolina (2.7%), and Texas (2.5%) also performed better than the national average.

This data table ranks U.S. states based on their 2025 real GDP growth, measuring the change in overall economic output after adjusting for inflation.

 

Both the Southeast and Southwest regions grew by an average of 2.3% in 2025. Increasingly, these Sun Belt regions have benefited from favorable corporate tax regimes and lower costs of living relative to more traditional growth hubs such as the Northeast and Far West.

 

Population growth has also become an important driver of the region’s economic expansion. Lower housing costs in many markets, business-friendly tax policies, and continued migration from other parts of the country have supported stronger demand, investment, and job creation across much of the Sun Belt. Two-thirds of the fastest-growing cities in the U.S. are southern Sun Belt cities, often in Florida or Texas.

The Continued Strength of California and New York

However, strong growth was not limited to the South. California, the nation’s largest state economy, saw growth of 2.5%.

Despite record domestic migration outflows, the Golden State remains a major economic force with sustained, above-average growth. Similarly, New York registered 2.9% growth in real GDP in 2025, third-highest in the country.

Growth within these traditional heavyweights was powered by robust private investment and strong years for sectors such as technology, healthcare, finance, and professional services.

The Slowest Growth in the Nation

Nationwide, the slowest growth was registered in North Dakota (0.3%), followed by West Virginia and Wyoming at 0.5% each. No state’s GDP contracted in 2025, while Washington, D.C. saw just 0.4% annual growth.

At the regional level, the Plains (1.4%) and Great Lakes (1.7%) regions lagged the rest of the country. These regions were particularly hurt by downturns in agriculture and a manufacturing slump, both of which were impacted by trade disruptions.

Meanwhile, a record-long government shutdown in late 2025 also affected many local communities dependent on federal agricultural financing.

Wondering how these state-level growth patterns fit into the national picture? Check out OECD Cuts U.S. Growth Forecast Over Tariffs, Policy Uncertainty on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Oil jumped and US equity futures fell after the US launched another round of strikes against Iran, while conflicting claims over the status of the Strait of Hormuz heightened uncertainty.

S&P 500 futures dropped 0.2% in early trading Monday after the cash index closed 0.4% higher on Friday.

WTI crude climbed 3% at the open, trading around $74, while the dollar rose against most major peers. 

Risk crept in after the US military launched several rounds of strikes in recent days, culminating with the latest barrage around 5pmET on Sunday aimed at further weakening Iran’s ability to strike civilian vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, the US Central Command said. The latest action followed Iranian drone and missile attacks on US allies including Kuwait, Jordan and Qatar in response to earlier US strikes. 

At 5 p.m. ET today, U.S. Central Command forces began launching more strikes against Iran to continue degrading their ability to attack civilian mariners and commercial ships freely transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The Commander in Chief has directed the strikes to hold Iranian…

— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) July 12, 2026

Confusion over the status of the Strait of Hormuz only added to the uncertainty, after Iran said it had closed the waterway while the US military and maritime authorities said shipping continued through its southern route. According to Axios, a US official said “around 20 commercial vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz in coordination with the US military over the last 24 hours, in addition to several vessels without US coordination.”

“The latest developments over the weekend suggest markets may face a volatile start to trading which could test the glass half full mentality we have seen recently,” Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets, wrote in a note to clients.

Besides a return to hostilities, investors are also bracing for a pivotal earnings season, with results from JPMorgan, BofA, Citi, Goldman and Wells all due Tuesday. According to Bloomberg, S&P 500 companies are expected to post a 24% jump in second-quarter profits, though the benchmark’s rally has become increasingly reliant on gains outside the technology megacaps that have driven markets in recent years.

In Europe, Deutsche Bank expects Stoxx 600 firms to report a 12% jump in second-quarter earnings, following a 7% rise in the first quarter. Profits for MSCI Asia Pacific constituents are estimated to rise 39%, up from 6.9% in the previous three months, largely driven by chip-exporting powerhouses such as Korea and Japan. 

The outlook is being tested by persistent inflation, higher energy prices and growing expectations the Federal Reserve may resume raising interest rates, threatening corporate margins. Just last week, several Fed officials warned that surging memory prices are rising core inflation, with Goldman calculating that the impact on core PCE by year-end will be +0.5% due to surging chip costs.

With US and global equities trading near record highs and valuations elevated, investors see little room for disappointing results.

Investors will also keep a close eye on this week’s US CPI data, after oil’s biggest weekly gain since mid-May revived concerns that higher energy costs could further complicate the disinflation story. Consumer and producer price reports – the last inflation readings before the Fed meets later this month – will offer fresh clues on the path of interest rates.

Traders have ramped up bets on further tightening, with swaps pricing almost 40 basis points of Fed hikes by December, up from about 15 basis points in early June. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expect both headline and core inflation to have eased slightly in June, though both are forecast to remain well above the Fed’s 2% target.  

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will also make his first congressional appearance since taking the helm after pledging to scale back forward guidance on the rate outlook.

Authored by Ben Sellers via Headline USA,

America’s fleeting interest in soccer may once again have abated following a humiliating World Cup defeat to Belgium last Monday, in a game that saw President Donald Trump become personally involved over a red-card dispute.

But the high-profile flop in the first elimination round was not the only indignity that the U.S. athletes must endure.

A collective bargaining agreement means that the team will have to share its $16 million prize pot (minus a 20% cut for the U.S. Men’s Soccer organization) with the U.S. women’s team.

“The remaining 80 percent is split evenly between the men’s and women’s player pools, meaning each team is set to receive $6.4 million from the USMNT’s run,” the New York Post reported.

That puts the estimated takeaway for each player on the two teams’ 26-man -person rosters at $246,153. However, since there is no finalized roster for the women’s team, which will vie for its fifth World Cup championship next year in Brazil, those payouts will remain in escrow for now.

The women’s success in the quadrennial tournament gave them extra leverage to demand the pay gap be closed after their 2019 championship title. By contrast, the men’s team has never won the tournament and last made it to the round of 16 in 2002.

But the men’s matches historically have drawn greater viewership. The loss to Belgium saw a U.S. television audience exceeding 45 million viewers, while the highest-rated women’s game, the 2015 World Cup final, saw the audience peak at just 26.7 million.

For winning the entire tournament in 2019, the women’s team received a total of $4 million from the $30 million overall that the league took in.

Despite the attempt at pay parity, critics such as The Spectator’s Melissa Chen noted that the agreement flies in the face of one of capitalism’s central tenets — the importance of market value.

The US men’s national soccer team is being subjected to the same kind of legalized plunder that defines too many divorce proceedings in this country.

After grinding through qualifiers, earning their spot in the World Cup, and generating the massive FIFA payout that only the… https://t.co/ZnSJjDHcbD

— Melissa Chen (@MsMelChen) July 9, 2026

“It disincentivizes excellence on the men’s side (why push harder if your windfall gets redistributed?) and removes pressure on the women’s side to grow their own commercial appeal,” Chen wrote. “Like divorce settlements that trap high-earners in perpetual support roles, this policy treats men’s soccer as a piggy bank for ‘fairness,’ not a business rewarding what fans and sponsors actually value.”

While the Trump administration keeps pushing domestic energy addition through funding vehicles and executive orders aimed at grid reliability and AI-driven demand growth, two next-generation geothermal developers just posted updates that move past announcements and into measurable progress on drilling and capital formation.

Fervo announced that its third-generation well design at Cape Station in Utah has lifted drilling rates by 143% compared with the first Cape well. 

The latest well, Sawtooth 7, reached 19,448 feet measured depth, including a 7,500-foot lateral, in just 21 days. That’s a 70% reduction in drilling time versus the prior design generation, even as the team targets hotter rock at 460 degrees Fahrenheit and larger casing diameters for higher output per well. 

Phase I at Cape Station remains on track for first power later this year, with Phase II targeting 400 MW online in 2028. Faster wells directly compress costs and timelines for the kind of repeatable deployment investors have been waiting to see.

Fervo’s Cape Phase II is tracking toward roughly $5,500/kW installed, with a longer-term target of $3,000/kW as the drilling learning curve keeps compounding. That remains well below the Georgia Vogtle nuclear units, which ultimately landed somewhere between $10,000 and $15,000/kW after years of delays and overruns.

As we reported back in February when the DOE released its $171.5 million Notice of Funding Opportunity for EGS field tests and resource confirmation drilling, the policy environment has turned supportive for technologies that can deliver firm, 24/7 carbon-free power without weather dependence. 

Quaise Energy moved in parallel with the initial close of a $134 million Series B round, bringing total funding to roughly $230 million. Prelude Ventures led, with strategic participation from JERA and Idemitsu Kosan of Japan. 

The proceeds target Project Obsidian, the company’s planned first commercial superhot geothermal plant on federal leases in central Oregon near Newberry Volcano. Quaise’s millimeter-wave drilling technology is approaching one kilometer of depth in Texas test wells after penetrating more than 100 meters of granite. 

The goal remains first electrons to the grid by 2030 from a facility with long-term gigawatt-scale potential once superhot rock above 300 degrees Celsius is routinely accessed.

Both moves align with the administration’s emphasis on unleashing American energy dominance and securing reliable power for data centers that cannot tolerate intermittency. Geothermal’s baseload profile makes it a natural complement to the nuclear builds that remain frustratingly slow on actual construction despite regulatory tailwinds.