Tag: news

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Is this just a correction after a strong bullish advance from November, or is the bull market ending? If you read some of the headlines, you would suspect the latter. As noted by MarketWatch last week:

“For the first time since early November 2023, less than 30% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 50-day moving average — a clear indicator of the current poor market’s breadth. This significant drop from the 85% observed in late March and 92% at the beginning of January highlights a dramatic reversal in market dynamics.

The 50-day moving average is often seen as a barometer for the short-term health of stocks. Falling below this level en masse suggests that a broad swath of the market is facing downward pressure. This shift comes amid escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and renewed concerns over inflation, which have collectively nudged traders towards a more guarded stance in April.”

Of course, there are many “reasons” lately for the drop in stock prices. Geopolitical stress between Israel and Iran and hotter-than-expected inflation data that paused Fed rate cuts brought sellers into the market. However, none of this is shocking, as we previously noted in “Blackout Of Buybacks:”

“Notably, since 2009, and accelerating starting in 2012, the percentage change in buybacks has far outstripped the increase in asset prices. As we will discuss, it is more than just a casual correlation, and the upcoming blackout window may be more critical to the rally than many think.” – March 19, 2024

Furthermore, the “blackout” of corporate buybacks coincided with an aggressively bullish investor sentiment. As we noted in that same article:

“Investor sentiment is once again very bullish. Historically, when retail investor sentiment is exceedingly bullish combined with low volatility, such has generally corresponded to short-term market peaks.”

We will return to this chart momentarily, but given that corporate share buybacks have accounted for roughly 100% of net equity purchases over the last two decades, the blackout period combined with aggressive bullish sentiment was the recipe for a decline in asset prices.

Here is the math of net flows if you don’t believe the chart:

• Pensions and Mutual Funds = (-$2.7 Trillion)

• Households and Foreign Investors = +$2.4 Trillion

  • Sub Total = (-$0.3 T)

• Corporations (Buybacks) = $5.5T

  • Net Total = $5.2 Trillion = Or 100% of all equities purchased

Such is crucial to understand as we head into the rest of the year. It will determine whether this is just a correction within a bullish trend or something more significant.

Buyers Live Lower

In “No Cash On The Sidelines,” we discussed the importance of understanding that “market prices” are set by the demand and supply between buyers and sellers. To wit:

“As noted above, the stock market is always a function of buyers and sellers, each negotiating to make a transaction. While there is a buyer for every seller, the question is always at “what price?” 

In the current bull market, few people are willing to sell, so buyers must keep bidding up prices to attract a seller to make a transaction. As long as this remains the case and exuberance exceeds logic, buyers will continue to pay higher prices to get into the positions they want to own.

Such is the very definition of the “greater fool” theory.

However, at some point, for whatever reason, this dynamic will change. Buyers will become more scarce as they refuse to pay a higher price. When sellers realize the change, they will rush to sell to a diminishing pool of buyers. Eventually, sellers will begin to “panic sell” as buyers evaporate and prices plunge.”

In other words, “Sellers live higher. Buyers live lower.“

We can see where the buyers and sellers “live” in the following chart, which shows where the highest volume occurred.

This current correction is becoming increasingly oversold (bottom panel), which suggests a bounce is likely toward the previous support of the 50-DMA. For comparison, we can look at last year’s market correction. As noted, the bullish rally into July peaked late that month. As the market corrected, it bounced from oversold conditions, allowing investors to reduce risk and hedge portfolios. The markets will likely present investors with that opportunity soon.

Then, like today, many investors began to believe it wasn’t just a correction but something much more. However, the reality was that the “buyers lived lower.” Buyers stepped in as prices approached the October lows, coinciding with the return of corporate share buybacks.

Sentiment Is Reversing Quickly

As I said, we need to revisit the sentiment chart above. Investors’ more frothy, bullish sentiment is reversing quickly on many fronts. The chart below, the same as above, is the composite net bullish sentiment index of retail and professional investors divided by the volatility index (VIX). If this is just a market correction, the index tends to bottom between zero (0) and negative (20). With a current reading of 4.15, down from 25.99 just two weeks ago, bullish sentiment has significantly reversed.

Notably, professional investor allocations to equities recently peaked at 103.88%, which has collapsed in just two weeks to just 62.98% exposure. (Professional investors are notorious for buying market peaks.)

Also, the number of stocks on bullish “buy signals” has dropped from 80.2 to 48.2.

Furthermore, the number of stocks trading above the 50-DMA has fallen from over 80% to 37%, with money flows hitting levels lower than previous market bottom lows. Notably, with just a 5.5% correction from the recent peak (as of last Friday), much of the work of clearing the previous overbought conditions is completed.

Given the significant reversal in sentiment and short-term oversold conditions, we highly suspect the markets will provide a reflexive rally soon. However, with the number of bullish investors who got “trapped” in the selloff, any rallies will likely be met with further selling.

However, despite the current “panic” in the media headlines, this is likely just a correction within an ongoing bullish market. Such is particularly the case given that corporate share buybacks will resume in May, providing critical support for the markets heading into summer.

With that said, this correction, when complete, likely won’t be the last we see this year. Market history suggests we could see another “bumpy ride” heading into what many expect will be a somewhat contentious election.

But that is an article we will write when we get there.

General Motors shares are higher in premarket trading after raising its 2024 guidance and beating Wall Street analysts’ top- and bottom-line expectations for the first quarter. The automaker cited stable pricing and increasing demand for its petrol-powered vehicles. 

GM boosted its adjusted pretax profit forecast to $12.5 billion to $14.5 billion, or $9 to $10 a share, up from its previous range of $12 billion to $14 billion, or $8.50 and $9.50 a share, for the year on a more robust car market in North America offsetting losses in other regions.

The automaker increased its 2024 forecast for adjusted automotive free cash flow to $8.5 billion and $10.5 billion, up from the previous estimate of $8 billion to $10 billion. 

“Over the last 24 months, we have been growing at an annualized rate of 15%,” GM Chief Financial Officer Paul Jacobson told investors on an earnings call, noting, “That gave us the confidence to raise full-year guidance.” 

Investors overlooked the company’s waning electric vehicles unit in China primarily because of its strong performance in the US.

“There … is the reality that the pricing is staying stronger for longer than anybody anticipated,” Tim Piechowski, portfolio manager at ACR Alpine Capital Research in St. Louis, which owns GM shares, told Reuters. 

“The engine of the company is truck and SUV at this point,” Piechowski said, adding, “They’re just generating substantial profit and free cash flow that will continue to fund the initiatives in EV. Full steam ahead.”

Here’s a snapshot of the 2024 forecast (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

• Sees adjusted EPS $9.00 to $10.00, saw $8.50 to $9.50, estimate $9.04 (Bloomberg Consensus)

• Sees adjusted auto free cash flow $8.5 billion to $10.5 billion, saw $8 billion to $10 billion 

• Sees adjusted Ebit $12.5 billion to $14.5 billion, saw $12 billion to $14 billion, estimate $12.69 billion

• Sees net income $10.1 billion to $11.5 billion, saw $9.8 billion to $11.2 billion, estimate $10.22 billion

• Sees Automotive net cash provided by operating activities $18.3 billion to $21.3 billion

For the first quarter, GM increased revenue to $43 billion, or about 8% year over year, with most of the gain coming from North America. That boosted profits, rising to $2.62 a share, up from $2.21 one year ago, beating the $2.12 average Wall Street analyst estimate tracked by Bloomberg. 

Here’s a snapshot of first-quarter results (courtesy of Bloomberg): 

• Adjusted EPS $2.62 vs. $2.21 y/y, estimate $2.12

• Net sales and rev. $43.01 billion, +7.6% y/y, estimate $42.19 billion

• Cruise net sales and revenue $25 million, estimate $29.3 million

• Automotive net sales and revenue $39.21 billion, +7% y/y, estimate $37.69 billion

• GM Financial net sales and revenue $3.81 billion, +14% y/y, estimate $3.6 billion

• North America adjusted Ebit $3.84 billion, +7.4% y/y, estimate $3.02 billion 

• International operations adjusted Ebit loss $10 million vs. profit $347 million y/y, estimate profit $223.3 million

• GM financial adjusted EBT $737 million, -4.4% y/y

• Adjusted automotive free cash flow $1.09 billion vs. negative $132 million y/y

• GMNA vehicle sales 792,000 units, +9.5% y/y, estimate 739,557 

• GMI vehicle sales 104,000 units, -26% y/y, estimate 164,343

• Adjusted Ebit $3.87 billion, estimate $3.13 billion

Following supply chain snarls during Covid, GM’s vehicle inventories rose to 534,000, well above the 2023 averages. Last quarter’s inventory means the automaker has roughly 63 days of supply, which GM considers ‘healthy.’ 

GM’s strength in the US allowed investors to overlook an operating loss of about $100 million in GM’s China operation. 

“We expect things to normalize a little bit and turn back to profit,” Jacobson told investors on the call while referring to China.

Shares of GM are up 5% in premarket trading. As of Monday’s close, shares entered a technical bull market on the year, rising 20.3%.

In a note to clients, Goldman told them GM is a “Buy rated” company with a 12-month price target of $50 based on 5X applied to our normalized EPS estimate of $10.00.

 They noted several risks to their bull outlook, including the auto cycle, market share, margins, FCF, and GM’s ability to achieve profitably to electric vehicles. 

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A migrant from Eritrea who is a convicted child rapist has won an appeal not to be deported from the UK after arguing that it would harm his mental health.

Yes, really.

The migrant has been in prison for TEN YEARS after attacking a teenage girl in 2014.

GB News reports that an appeal claiming that the migrant wouldn’t be able to access care for PTSD or depression in the East African country has been successful.

Child rapist will NOT be deported after claiming it would harm his mental health despite sick attack decade agohttps://t.co/tGzjUqkQZy

— GB News (@GBNEWS) April 22, 2024

The man’s lawyers were able to get a doctor to testify that the migrant would likely kill himself if he was deported.

They also claimed that he would be punished in his home country for evading military service. 

As a result, the migrant will remain in the UK despite a security report concluding that the man poses a significant risk to public safety. 

Conservative MP Nigel Mills commented “This man committed a serious criminal offence and should be nowhere near this country.”

He added, “If he was concerned about losing mental health treatment or being arrested for fleeing the draft, he should have thought about that before he committed the crime.”

“This decision is another sign the tribunal system is deeply out of touch with the rest of Britain,” Mills further urged.

This is far from an isolated case.

Last year, a migrant rapist concluded to be a significant danger to women was allowed to stay in the UK after he argued that the medicines he was receiving to treat his mental health would not be available in Gambia.

High Court judge rules Gambian rapist, Joachim Carlos, 43, who arrived in the UK illegally before attacking a woman at knifepoint in Edinburgh CANNOT be deported after arguing the creep might not be given proper medical treatment in his home country.https://t.co/tGvmqaCLta

— UK Justice Forum 🇬🇧 Latest Video News Updates! (@Justice_forum) October 8, 2023

As we previously highlighted, an Afghan illegal migrant sex offender was recently granted refugee status in the UK because it was argued that exposing himself in public wouldn’t be tolerated if he was sent back to Afghanistan.

Other hardened criminal migrants have managed to avoid deportation by arguing that it would violate their human rights.

There are also concerns that a government attempt to bring in a new definition of extremism and apply it to criminal illegal immigrants could provide them an excuse to avoid deportation by arguing that it could lead to their ill-treatment if they are returned to their home country.

🔴 New extremism definition could help migrants avoid deportation, adviser warns https://t.co/b0CziAel4u

— Telegraph Politics (@TelePolitics) March 15, 2024

In addition, a 2022 report found that more than 80 percent of illegal immigrants detained in the UK were simply let go rather than deported.

Four in five UK immigration detainees released not deported, monitor says https://t.co/duwk7oh4LG

— The Guardian (@guardian) December 18, 2023

Those who have been ordered to be deported often purposefully become violent or aggressive, knowing that it will prevent the flight from taking off with them on board.

The government continues to drag its feet on a vow to pass legislation that would see boat migrant asylum seekers arriving in the UK illegally deported to Rwanda for processing.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

Via The Cradle

The Israeli army is closing in on completing its plans for an assault on the Gaza Strip’s southern city of Rafah, the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on Tuesday. 

WSJ cites Egyptian officials as saying that Israel’s plan to evacuate civilians from the city will take two to three weeks and will be carried out in cooperation with Washington, Cairo, and other Arab states, including the UAE. 

The officials say Israel is planning on gradual deployments of troops to Rafah. The troops will concentrate on specific areas where Tel Aviv believes Hamas leaders are holed up.

The entire operation – including the evacuations – is expected to take at least six weeks, according to WSJ. The attack on Rafah will have a “very tight operational plan because it’s very complex there,” an Israeli security official told the outlet. “There’s a humanitarian response that’s happening at the same time.”

Israel’s evacuation plan involves moving Rafah’s civilian population upwards towards the southern city of Khan Yunis, as well as other areas of the strip, the report states, adding that shelters with tents, food supplies, and medical facilities will be set up. 

Egypt has been briefed on the details of the plan. Al-Araby Al-Jadeed reported last week, citing Egyptian sources, that Egyptian forces and agencies are “at full readiness” in northern Sinai and along the Egyptian border with Gaza. The increased readiness came after “contacts from the Israeli side” relating to preparations for the operation in the southern city.

The Al-Araby Al-Jadeed report adds that the Egyptian Red Crescent has been readying camps in Khan Yunis over the past few months in preparation for the displacement of Palestinians from Rafah. Satellite images obtained by AP this week reportedly show a new tent compound near Khan Yunis.

In February, it was reported that Egypt built a security zone in the Sinai near the border with Rafah. Many speculated at the time that the security zone would aid Israeli plans to push Rafah’s population into the Sinai desert. Egypt’s State Information Service said on February 17 that the zone is a logistics hub on the Egyptian side of the Rafah border, which will be used to deliver aid into Gaza.

Israeli army radio reported on Monday that Tel Aviv is now expanding a designated “humanitarian zone” that will “accommodate around one million people.” It said field hospitals have also been set up in the area. Army radio added that the zone will extend from Al-Mawasi on Gaza’s southern coast towards Deir al-Balah in the central Gaza Strip. 

Satellite photos analyzed by The Associated Press appear to show a new compound of tents being built near Khan Younis in the southern Gaza Strip as the Israeli military continues to signal it plans an offensive on the city of Rafah.https://t.co/5bkOW5ShyF

— Toronto Star (@TorontoStar) April 23, 2024

Israel believes Rafah is Hamas’ final stronghold and is dead set on attacking the city. Washington has repeatedly said it would not accept an operation there without a plan to properly and safely evacuate civilians and move them out of harm’s way.  

The UN and several countries have warned that attacking Rafah would have catastrophic consequences and that there is no safe way to evacuate the desperately overcrowded city. 

A mistrial was declared in the case of an Arizona rancher accused of fatally shooting an illegal immigrant on his property near the US-Mexico border, after the jury failed to reach a unanimous decision following two full days of deliberation.

George Alan Kelly, 75, was charged with second-degree murder in the Jan. 30, 2023 shooting of 48-year-old Gabriel Cuen-Buitimea, who was in the United States illegally.

“Based upon the jury’s inability to reach a verdict on any count,” said Arizona Superior Court Judge Thomas Fink, adding “This case is in mistrial.“

According to one of Kelly’s defense attorneys, Kathy Lowthorp, just one juror was voting ‘guilty,’ which is why their legal team pushed for deliberations to continue.

“There was one hold out for guilt, the rest were not guilty. So seven not guilty, one guilty,” said Lowthorp. “We believe in our gut that there was no way the state proved beyond a reasonable doubt.”

George Alan Kelly’s defense attorney Kathy Lowthorp says the mistrial was caused by one holdout juror who believed Kelly to be guilty. She says the other 7 wanted to vote for acquittal. pic.twitter.com/BvS88AupcX

— Adam Klepp (@AdamKleppAZ) April 23, 2024

The Santa Cruz County Attorney’s office can still retry Kelly for any charge, or drop the case. 

Prosecutors accused Kelly of recklessly firing nine shots from an AK-47 rifle toward a group of men who were trespassing on his cattle ranch after running from Border Patrol agents, roughly 115 yeards away. He was also accused of providing inconsistent statements throughout the investigation – initially failing to tell officials that he had fired his weapon, and then allegedly claiming that the illegal immigrants were part of a group of 10-15 people armed with AR-style rifles – and that he’d heard gunshots.

Kelly’s attorney said that he had fired “warning shots.”

“He does not believe that any of his warning shots could have possibly hit the person or caused the death,” she said at the time. “All the shooting that Mr. Kelly did on the date of the incident was in self-defense and justified.

After Monday’s ruling, Consul General Marcos Moreno Baez of the Mexican consulate in Nogales, Arizona, said he would wait with Cuen-Buitimea’s two adult daughters on Monday evening to meet with prosecutors from Santa Cruz County Attorney’s Office to learn about the implications of a mistrial.

“Mexico will continue to follow the case and continue to accompany the family, which wants justice.” said Moreno. “We hope for a very fair outcome.“

Kelly’s defense attorney Brenna Larkin did not immediately respond to an emailed request for comment after the ruling was issued. Larkin had asked Fink to have jurors keep deliberating another day. –CBS News

Following the mistrial, Kelly said: “Let me go home, okay? That alright with y’all? It is what it is and it will be what it will be. I will keep fighting forever. I won’t stop.”

“Let me go home,” George Alan Kelly speaks after the mistrial was declared. The Mexican Consulate said they hope the state will re-try the case and justice will be served. pic.twitter.com/IDYpaM806C

— Adam Klepp (@AdamKleppAZ) April 23, 2024

 

Four years ago, we wrote an article, mocking the unspeakable reality that it appeared “The Fed and The Treasury had now merged“…

Last week, that reality dawned on one of Wall Street’s best and brightest as BofA Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett headlined his latest note with a ‘zeitgeist’ quote that sounded awfully familiar:

“Biggest piece of M&A in past 12 months was the merger of Treasury & Fed.”

And this morning, Bloomberg macro strategist Simon White takes up the story below, noting that monetary and fiscal policy in the US is becoming more intertwined as the Federal Reserve and the Treasury – implicitly or otherwise – increasingly coordinate their actions.

That’s a structural negative for US Treasuries, and signals an end to the long underperformance of commodities and other real assets.

Reflecting on the quote above Michael Hartnett of BofA – describing the greater coordination of fiscal and monetary policy in the US and the winnowing away of the Fed’s independence from the Treasury – White agrees that, viewed as an M&A deal, it’s certainly massive, given the Fed’s $7 trillion balance sheet and the government’s $34 trillion of debt.

More importantly, it’s hazardous for Treasuries as it tilts the risks for persistently higher inflation firmly to the upside, even though the market continues to be under-appreciative of the ever-more malign landscape. Positioning in USTs has fallen this year, but it is still likely to be net long, while outright shorts remain near survey lows, corroborated by the muted short interest in Treasury ETFs such as the TLT.

At the same time as entrenched inflation is bad for fixed income, it’s also very positive for real assets such as commodities. They have relentlessly underperformed financial assets – stocks and bonds – over the last four decades.

Governments are inherently inflationary. Wealth is very unevenly distributed, with many dollars held in only a few hands. But every person has exactly one vote. Thus there is an incentive for governments to take wealth from the rich — where it is mainly saved — and redistribute it to the less well-off, where it is more likely to be spent.

The sort of spending governments engage in in the run-up to elections is likely to be discretionary and debt-funded — which government wants to raise taxes ahead of a vote? Mandatory spending, such as entitlement programs and defense, is likely to see its biggest boost when the economy is in a slump. Increases in discretionary spending, on the other hand, more often than not happen when the economy is growing, and therefore are more likely to fan inflation.

Discretionary spending in the US had already started to grow before the pandemic, and its five-year growth rate has leveled off at an elevated level and not yet fallen. As the chart below shows, longer-term rises in discretionary spending precede structural rises in inflation. Today’s spending is the largest ever seen in the US outside of war or recession.

How is government spending stoking inflation in this cycle? Mainly through supporting corporate profits. Deeper fiscal deficits lead to higher profits and profit margins (see chart below), as net spending in one sector must lead to net saving in the others, with the corporate sector the main beneficiary as government deficits support spending in the household sector.

This is a marked change from the 1970s when wages directly drove prices higher. With much less trade-union membership and weakened union power, that’s less of a risk today.

But profits are lining up to be the main vector of persistent and elevated inflation in this cycle. The unique conditions of the pandemic allowed firms to raise profit margins almost as fast as they ever have done. A profit-price-wage spiral is a greater likelihood, and could already be underway.

The risk is that an increase in margins leads to higher prices and then to higher wages. Margins are increased again, but to a greater level than before, to maintain profits in real terms as prices have risen since the last increase.

Economy-wide margins are off their recent highs, but are still significantly elevated compared to their pre-pandemic levels. Labor costs in the decades running up until 2020 made up the bulk of corporate prices, accounting for over half of them on average. But that relationship has inverted since the pandemic, with profits now making up 45% of selling prices, versus under 30% for the cost of labor. Profits now drive prices.

Elevated government deficits can keep the carousel going by supporting spending. The CBO projects discretionary outlay’s five-year growth rate should fall back toward 10% in the next few years from over 35% now. But that’s smoking hopium. The expectations electorates have from their governments markedly rose in the pandemic, with the sovereign expected to underwrite an ever widening basket of risks. The “fiscal put” is becoming embedded and the longer spending keeps rising to pay for it, the harder it will be to reverse.

Government borrowing to fund discretionary spending is a highly inflationary mix on its own, but the addition of a compliant central bank fans the flames further. Notionally the Fed is still independent, but in actuality its maneuverability is increasingly circumscribed for three reasons:

1. the large amount of Treasuries outstanding and the rising interest payable on them;

2. the ungainly size of the Treasury’s account at the Fed;

3. and the increasing proportion of short-term bills, i.e. short-term liabilities that are very money-like.

History is replete with examples of large government deficits monetized by central banks preceding high or hyper-inflation, from China in the late 1940s, to Greece in the early 40s and to Zimbabwe early in this century. That’s not to say we should expect the US to see price growth hit such stupefying levels, but to underscore that spendthrift governments and subservient central banks is a terrible combination for price stability.

Treasuries are unlikely to thrive in this environment.

Nothing moves in a straight line, but the net path for yields is likely to be higher in the coming months and years. Embedded inflation is also likely to drive increasing demand for real assets such as property and commodities, ending their decades of underperformance.

Inflation is one of the most regressive of taxes, as well as being one of the hardest to lower. Almost everyone loses when it is elevated. Even though M&A deals are meant to be value creating, this one is likely to be precisely the opposite.

Authored by Jake Johnson via Common Dreams,

US Sen. Bernie Sanders said Monday that he would put forth an amendment to remove offensive military funding for Israel from a House-passed aid package that the Senate is set to consider this week.

The amendment would “cut billions in offensive military funding to Israel from the proposed national security supplemental package,” Sanders (I-Vt.) said in a statement. The package, approved by the Republican-controlled House over the weekend, includes $17 billion in unconditional military assistance to the Israeli government, which stands accused on the world stage of “perpetrating genocide” in Gaza.

The senator said he would also offer an amendment to “protect essential humanitarian operations” in the Gaza Strip, where millions of people are facing the possibility of starvation due to Israel’s suffocating and illegal blockade. At least 28 children under the age of 12 have starved to death in Gaza in recent weeks.

Sanders’ amendment would restore U.S. funding to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), the most important aid agency working in Gaza.

An independent report released Monday found that Israel has not provided any evidence to support its claim that a significant number of UNRWA employees are members of terrorist organizations. The US suspended its UNRWA aid in late January in response to Israel’s unsubstantiated allegations against the agency’s workers, and the House-passed Israel legislation would prohibit funding for the organization.

Sanders said Monday that the Senate “should have a chance to debate and vote on the key components of such a massive package.”

“In poll after poll, Americans have showed their increasing disgust for [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu’s war machine and the humanitarian disaster it has caused in Gaza,” the senator added. “Enough is enough. We cannot continue to fund this horrific war.”

A Senate vote on final passage of the White House-backed aid package—which also includes aid for Ukraine and Taiwan—is expected before Wednesday night. As Punchbowl reported, “each senator will be limited to just one hour of remarks” following procedural votes on Tuesday, so “it’s likely that those who oppose the measure won’t be able to drag this out much later than tonight.”

The Senate vote on whether to hand Israel billions more in unconditional military aid will come as the country’s military appears poised to escalate its devastating assault on the Gaza Strip, which has reportedly killed more than 34,000 people so far.

Satellite imagery obtained and analyzed by Al Jazeera shows that Israel has positioned “troops and vehicles at nearby army bases and outposts just outside the enclave.”

“The analysis indicates that Israel has deployed more than 800 military vehicles to two bases,” the outlet continued. “At least 120 vehicles are stationed at the northern border of the Gaza Strip and 700 are in the Negev desert, to the south. The satellite imagery also reveals that Israel has established nine military outposts just outside the enclave. Three were erected in November and December 2023 and six were set up between January and March of this year. The outposts house soldiers, operational command centers, and military vehicles.”

I look forward to offering amendments tomorrow to cut billions in offensive military funding to Israel from the proposed national security supplemental package and protect essential humanitarian operations. We cannot continue to fund this horrific war. pic.twitter.com/8JpxpT7IX2

— Bernie Sanders (@SenSanders) April 23, 2024

A US State Department report released Monday acknowledges that Israel has been credibly accused of grave human rights abuses in Gaza and the West Bank, including extrajudicial killings and torture. US law prohibits American military assistance for governments violating human rights, but the Biden administration has resisted global calls to cut off arms sales to Israel.

“The widespread nature of the abuses described in the human rights report is overshadowed by the State Department’s inaction on these same findings,” Raed Jarrar, advocacy director of Democracy for the Arab World Now, said Monday. “The State Department needs to read its own report and take immediate action against all abusive Israeli units.”

Seemingly choosing to ignore soaring new home sales and median home prices (and wage-related and input cost pressures within the PMI data), US equity markets, bond markets. gold, and crypto are all ripping higher on the ‘bad news’ decline in Manfacturing Services ‘soft’ data.

The driver of this move appears to be optimism that The Fed may cut.. more… as 2024 rate-cut expectation shifted back up near ‘2’…

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled with the short-end outperforming…

Source: Bloomberg

Gold soared back from overnight weakness…

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ripped back above $67,000…

Source: Bloomberg

And stocks are extending yesterday’s gains…

How long will this last?

Source: SpotGamma

0-DTE traders aggressively fading this rally.

Following the plunge in Existing Home Sales (and Start and Permits), March New Home Sales (unexpectedly) soared – rising 8.8% Mom (+0.9% exp). This big jump (largest MoM since Dec 2022) is made to look a lot better after February’s 0.3% MoM decline was revised dramatically lower (to a 5.1% decline)…

Source: Bloomberg

This MoM jump sent new home sales up 8.3% YoY to 693k SAAR – the highest since Sept 2023…

Source: Bloomberg

Just another downward revision…

Source: Bloomberg

The median new home price rebounded to $430,700 from an upward revised $406,500, further normalizing with existing home sales…

Source: Bloomberg

Mortgage rates above 7% continue to plague existing-home sales, which are “stuck,” National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said last week.

Several pro-Palestinian protests at major universities have been forcibly shut down, as tension simmer over the Israel-Hamas war.

The protests, which have been growing in size and intensity over the last week, were met with aggressive crackdowns from school administrators and police, as a wave of arrests, suspensions and canceled classes. Last week, officials at Columbia University called the cops to remove demonstrators who want the school to exit all investments that benefit the government of Israel amid the rising death toll in Gaza, which now stands at more than 34,000 according to local health officials. The war was sparked by the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on southern Israel, in which militants killed around 1,200 people (mostly civilians), and took 250 hostages.

Demonstrators have been setting up encampments which have swelled to hundreds of protesters who are demanding that their schools condemn Israel’s assault on Gaza and divest from companies that sell weapons to Israel.

Similar protests at Yale, MIT, and NYU, many of which occurred hours before the start of the Jewish holiday of Passover, have been met with crackdowns as well, as Jewish students say criticism of Israel and Zionism has turned into antisemitism that has made them feel unsafe, AP reports.

Officials at New York University called the cops after reports of “intimidating chants and several antisemitic incidents” Monday night. Around 8:30 p.m., officers began making arrests after around 150 protesters gathered at the university’s Gould Plaza in Greenwich Village.

#BREAKING Clashes and battles over tents – MASS ARRESTS at the NYU, ‘Liberated Zone’ encampment tents REMOVED as massive ammount of police continues to clear out the protesters.

This is happening right now.
Video by @yyeeaahhhboiii2 Desk@freedomnews.tv to license pic.twitter.com/qkUP5w22SW

— Oliya Scootercaster 🛴 (@ScooterCasterNY) April 23, 2024

NOW: NYPD arrests at least a dozen NYU faculty members in the ‘Liberated Zone’ at Gould Plaza

Police deployed the LRAD while protesters were praying pic.twitter.com/TS6JrgjyRA

— katie smith (@probablyreadit) April 23, 2024

In response, the Anti-Israel protesters marched toward NYPD headquarters late Monday carrying flares in protest of the arrests.

Palestinian activists set off flares as they hold a protest outside the NYPD headquarters as they await the release of several protesters from police detention.

pic.twitter.com/rZ7JfniZB5

— Oli London (@OliLondonTV) April 15, 2024

“They were described as interfering with the safety and security of our community,” said Kaz Daughtry, the deputy commissioner of the New York Police Department’s Security Operations Center, referring to the protesters. “Our officers responded to the location without delay and dispersed the crowd, making numerous arrests, as necessary.”

According to the Epoch Times, the university tried to negotiate with the protesters. The situation escalated as more people joined the ranks, and protesters ignored repeated requests to leave the area.

“Following negotiations this morning, additional protestors breached our barriers in violation of our clear instructions, and we witnessed disorderly, disruptive, and antagonizing behavior that has interfered with the safety and security of our community,” reads a letter received from NYU to the NYPD. “At this point, we consider all protesters occupying Gould Plaza to be trespassers, and we would like the NYPD to clear the area and take action to remove the protestors. In the event they refuse to leave, we request the NYPD take enforcement action accordingly, up to and including arrest.“

At Yale, police arrested 60 people on Monday, including 47 students. President Peter Salovey cited “police reports identifying harmful acts and threatening language used against individuals at or near the protest sites,” according to Bloomberg.

After the Yale University police arrested 60 pro-Palestinian demonstrators — 47 of them students — who had pitched a weekend-long encampment on a plaza at the center of campus, protests continued on Monday. https://t.co/Jowx5nKcYx pic.twitter.com/XQCjH50H6g

— The New York Times (@nytimes) April 23, 2024

At Harvard, access to Harvard Yard has been restricted through Friday, and the university suspended the Palestinian Solidarity Committee student group – one of several organizations that staged a rally in Harvard Yard in solidarity with their comrades at Columbia.

At MIT, students set up an encampment in front of Kresge Auditorium – a central building on campus.

“We are here first and foremost to call for a ceasefire in Gaza,” said Prahlad Iyengar, a first-year graduate student participating in the protest, Bloomberg reports.

On the West Coast, several hundred students set up more than a dozen tents at UC Berkeley proclaiming “Gaza Solidarity Encampment Until UC Divests.” The protesters demand that the university divest from companies tied to Israel, as well as a boycott of academic activities such as the UC study abroad program in Israel.

The University of Pennsylvania revoked the registration of a pro-Palestinian campus organization.

This may be the greatest video I have ever seen

Via @zerosum24 pic.twitter.com/OzsLmkj8GK

— Jack Poso 🇺🇸 (@JackPosobiec) April 23, 2024

Let’s see what comes next…