Tag: news

A former diversity program manager at Facebook and Nike has been sentenced to five years in prison for stealing more than $5 million from Facebook and Nike while working as a DEI executive. 

Barbara Furlow-Smiles has been accused of ” an elaborate scheme involving fraudulent vendors, fictitious paperwork, and cash kickbacks”, a press release from the Department of Justice said this week.

U.S. Attorney Ryan K. Buchanan commented: “Furlow-Smiles shamelessly violated her position of trust as a DEI executive at Facebook to steal millions from the company utilizing a scheme involving fraudulent vendors, fake invoices, and cash kickbacks.”

“After being terminated from Facebook, she brazenly continued the fraud as a DEI leader at Nike, where she stole another six-figure sum from their diversity program. Her prison sentence reflects the consequences of her decision to orchestrate an intricate scheme to defraud two of her employers for personal profit,” he added.

Keri Farley, Special Agent in Charge of FBI Atlanta added: “As Lead Strategist at Facebook, Furlow-Smiles’ employer put an extreme amount of trust in her, only to have that trust completely violated.”

Farley continued: “After she was fired, she carelessly continued her fraudulent schemes at Nike, thinking she was untouchable. As a result, she not only threw away a lucrative career, but will serve time behind bars for her excessive greed.”

The DOJ commented in their release that Furlow-Smiles served as Lead Strategist and Global Head of Employee Resource Groups and Diversity Engagement at Facebook (now Meta) from January 2017 to September 2021. According to U.S. Attorney Buchanan, Furlow-Smiles misused her position to defraud Facebook by making payments for services never rendered and directing recipients to kick back the money to her. 

She linked PayPal, Venmo, and Cash App accounts to her Facebook credit cards to pay associates for nonexistent services, then submitted false expense reports to hide the fraud. The kickbacks were often returned to her in cash or through account transfers, with some payments concealed in packages sent by mail. 

Additionally, Furlow-Smiles onboarded vendors owned by friends and associates, approved fraudulent invoices, and received kickbacks from these payments. She recruited numerous individuals, including friends, relatives, and former interns, to participate in the scheme.

After leaving Facebook, Furlow-Smiles worked at Nike as Senior Director of Diversity, Equity & Inclusion from November 2021 to February 2023, where she was responsible for DEI initiatives and events, including a Juneteenth event in New York.

“In total, Furlow-Smiles stole more than $4.9 million from Facebook and over $120,000 from Nike based on fictitious charges and fraudulent invoices,” the DOJ wrote. “She used the money to fund a luxury lifestyle in California, Georgia, and Oregon.”

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

A doctor in Washington state has been fined for prescribing ivermectin against COVID-19. He must also take continuing education classes, according to newly filed documents.

Dr. Wei-Hsung Lin must pay $5,000, according to an order signed by the Washington Medical Commission on May 2.

Ivermectin is approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for treating several conditions, including parasitic worms. Prescribing medicine for unapproved usage is common in the United States, but administration officials have warned against prescribing and using ivermectin as a COVID-19 treatment. Regulators have pointed to a database of clinical trials, some of which found ivermectin did not confer a benefit against COVID-19 and some of which found ivermectin was beneficial against the illness.

Dr. Lin, who also signed the order, admitted to prescribing ivermectin to five people without detailing how the prescriptions were off-label, the risks involved, and alternative treatments.

One patient, a 71-year-old female, tested positive for COVID-19 at the emergency room on June 23, 2021. She saw Dr. Lin in a telemedicine visit the following day. He prescribed her 12 milligrams of ivermectin daily for five days after stating that a “substantial body of literature” showed ivermectin was “effective as a one-day therapy or five-day therapy.”

The woman went back to the hospital after taking ivermectin for four days but not seeing improvement. She was ultimately discharged and recovered.

In another case, Dr. Lin prescribed ivermectin to a 69-year-old male for COVID-19. Dr. Lin prescribed extra ivermectin because the man’s wife also had COVID-19. Neither the husband nor wife ended up taking the ivermectin because they went online and “observed the warnings about ivermectin for COVID-19 as well as the possible negative effects for those with heart conditions,” the order states.

Dr. Lin’s treatment was “below standard of care” in part because he did not discuss alternative treatments, according to the document. No alternatives are listed in the document. In 2021, remdesivir was the primary government-approved treatment for some COVID-19 patients.

Authorities also faulted Dr. Lin for not discussing COVID-19 vaccines with his patients.

According to the order, Dr. Lin’s actions constituted unprofessional conduct, defined in state law as “any act involving moral turpitude, dishonesty, or corruption relating to the practice of the person’s profession, whether the act constitutes a crime or not.”

The order prohibits Dr. Lin from prescribing ivermectin off-label to patients in Washington state and from prescribing any medication or providing care for patients without first establishing a doctor-patient relationship.

It also requires him to review the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and UpToDate websites for current COVID-19 guidelines, take continuing medical education classes on preventing, treating, and managing COVID-19 and establishing a doctor-patient relationship, and write two papers of at least 1,000 words describing what he learned from the websites and classes.

The commission or its designee is also going to make annual compliance visits, including reviewing a random selection of records, and says Dr. Lin must appear within 12 months, and subsequently on an annual basis, at a date and location determined by the commission as part of compliance oversight.

Dr. Jane Orient, executive director of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, said that the conditions are “extremely onerous” and require work that would “enormously increase the burden of practice and probably drive most physicians out of practice altogether.”

“Ivermectin is an extremely safe drug—much safer than most drugs physicians prescribe without all the ‘informed consent’ discussions demanded here,” Dr. Orient told The Epoch Times in an email.

“As to informing patients of alternatives, the reasons patients were calling this doctor was likely that no alternatives were available. It was ‘isolate and go to ER if you get worse.’”

She recommended doctors avoid Washington state if they’re able.

The Washington Medical Commission did not return an inquiry.

Dr. Lin is employed by the Kadlec Regional Medical Center clinic in Richland.

“After being made aware of an alleged violation by one of our providers, we fully cooperated with the Washington State Department of Health throughout their investigation. While Kadlec does not recommend or allow ivermectin for the prevention or treatment of COVID-19, we respect the rights of patients and physicians to discuss and explore all available treatment options, based on patients’ unique health and medical situations,” a spokesperson for Kadlec told The Epoch Times in an email.

“We remain dedicated to providing high-quality care for all patients we serve, and we are pleased this matter has been resolved.”

If Dr. Lin had contested the allegations, the commission would have heard arguments and then ruled, potentially suspending his license. The commission has already ruled against several doctors who prescribed ivermectin for COVID-19, most recently forbidding pathologist Dr. Ryan Cole from practicing medicine in the state for five years.

“Dr. Lin was willing to fight this all the way but when we looked the risk-reward matrix we felt—and he felt—it was in his best interest to go ahead and settle,” Pete Serrano, an attorney with the Silent Majority Foundation representing Dr. Lin, told The Epoch Times.

“He was ready to kind of close the chapter and move on with his life,” Mr. Serrano added later.

Dr. Lin was initially facing a $25,000 fine and harsher repercussions but negotiations on the settlement ended up reducing some of the penalties.

Dr. Lin can petition to terminate the order in three years.

A heated catfight broke out Thursday evening during a House Oversight Committee hearing, during which Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) asked if any of the Democrats present were employing the daughter of Trump Judge Juan Merchan – whose progressive political consulting firm has represented VP Kamala Harris, Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) and other liberals.

The committee was considering whether Attorney General Merrick Garland should be held in contempt of Congress for his refusal to turn over recordings of President Joe Biden’s interview with special counsel Robert Hur – which the White House exercised executive privilege over earlier this week – when Greene asked the Democrats about Merchan’s daughter.

“I’d like to know if any of the Democrats on this committee are employing Judge Merchan’s daughter,” Greene asked.

“Please tell me what that has to do with Merrick Garland,” shot back Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-MO).

“Oh, Goldman, that’s right. He’s advising,” Greene said, ignoring Crockett.

“Do you know what we’re here for?” Crockett said back, adding “You know we’re here for AG.”

To which Green said “I don’t think you know what you’re here for … I think your fake eyelashes are messing up what you’re reading.“

This triggered Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), who moved to take down Greene’s words, saying “That is absolutely unacceptable. How dare you attack the physical appearance of another person.”

“Are your feelings hurt?” replied Greene.

To which ACO exclaimed “Remove her words down.”

“Aww,” Greene responded.

“Oh girl, baby girl,” AOC shot back. “Don’t even play.”

Following a brief recess, Crockett called a point of order and asked House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer (R-KY) if Greene’s behavior was ok.

“I’m just curious, just to better understand your ruling,” said Crockett. “If someone on this committee then starts talking about somebody’s bleach-blond, bad-built, butch body, that would not be engaging in personalities, correct?“

At this point Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-FL) jumped into the fray, demanding Crockett’s words be removed – to which Crockett exploded into a verbal tirade against Luna, shouting and using profanity.

“Calm down, please calm down,” said Luna. “You’re out of control!”

Watch:

Via SchiffGold.com,

Platinum is entering its second year of substantial deficit, according to the Platinum Quarterly report from the World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC).

Report authors labeled the Q1 deficit of 369k oz “significant” and predicted that the deficit will continue to deepen throughout the rest of the year, hitting 476k oz in total.

“High inflation, interest rates remaining higher for longer, and political uncertainty will weigh on commodity markets and platinum prices,” WPIC researchers said.

“The lower price environment, along with other factors, will continue to weigh on platinum supply during this year.”

Reduction in supply growth is coupled with “resilient” though slightly reduced year-over-year total demand in Q1. Together, these factors have combined to carry platinum prices above $1,000 per ounce this week, passing the four-digit mark for the first time since December of 2023.

South Africa is the top producer of platinum worldwide, supplying 140,000 kg to the global market in 2022 alone. Paul Dunne, Northam CEO, recently told Reuters that South African miners are facing “the worst crisis I have seen in three decades, on a relative basis,” adding that “the squeeze on the industry is severe” as mining companies have slashed thousands of jobs in response to declining profits. The resulting production drops have contributed significantly to the overall 2024 platinum deficit.

Russia, a distant follower at 20,000 kg produced in 2022, has managed to hold production steady year-over-year, despite facing joint economic sanctions from the U.S. and the U.K. Both countries announced in April that the London Metal Exchange and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange would no longer trade new aluminum, copper, or nickel produced by Russia. Platinum group metals, including palladium, were specifically excluded from the sanctions due to supply chain sensitivities.

WPIC researchers warn that supply risks will remain a challenge throughout the coming year, resulting in a 58k oz increase in the 2024 predicted deficit since the previous report was released in March.

Meanwhile, amid supply growth reductions, WPIC’s predicted investment demand has been revised upward by nearly double. The change is largely attributed to a rise in Chinese bar and coin demand.

As of 2022, China was the world’s largest platinum consumer, holding 34% of global consumption at 75 metric tons during the year. Among other uses, the precious metal plays a key role in catalytic converters and clean hydrogen production. Increasingly strict green energy regulations in China may partly explain the country’s rising demand for component metals.

Surprisingly, all this change may be good news for farseeing investors.

“The main current challenge for platinum investment is … not the underlying fundamentals, which look the strongest they have for years, but rather one of sentiment,” WPIC researchers concluded, suggesting three reasons why fundamentals and sentiment remain at odds.

Firstly, consumers may worry that increasing vehicle electrification will reduce the use of platinum and associated metals in combustion engines (ICE). WPIC researchers have found, however, that this result is likely to be “negligible through 2030,” as growth in the EV market is not necessarily driven by “cannibalization” of ICE and hybrid vehicles.

Secondly, dipping platinum prices have caused producers to implement aggressive cost-saving measures to offset profit reduction. The scale of these adjustments may reduce the participating firms’ ability to respond to the possibility of increased demand or higher prices, slowing market recovery.

Finally, potential platinum investors have been distracted by the comparatively extraordinary performance of gold, which WPIC researchers say is doing unexpectedly well amid a high-interest rate environment. Gold prices are setting records this year, with spot prices remaining comfortably above $2,000 per ounce throughout most of the last six months.

“Overall for platinum, however, the market’s lack of conviction will in time be addressed by higher-for-longer automotive demand and ongoing supply challenges,” WPIC researchers said.

“…Platinum’s investment case continues to be compelling despite economic headwinds.”

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

President Joe Biden polls at or below 40 percent approval. Historically, such unpopularity has made it almost impossible for a president to be reelected.

Biden is not so much an octogenarian as an unhealthy and prematurely aging 80-year-old. It is America’s irony that he is fit for almost no other job in the country other than the presidency, which apparently allows for a three-day-a-week ceremonial role while others in the shadows run the country.

So how does Biden become renominated and reelected, as polls show he is behind in almost every critical swing state on nearly every issue?

Answer: not by campaigning, not by championing his record, and especially not by doubling down on his neo-socialist and now unpopular agendas.

Instead, his campaign is focused on four other strategies to beat former President Donald Trump.

First, left-wing local, state, and federal prosecutors are tying Trump up in court on crimes that have never been seen before and will never be again after the election. All the cases are politically motivated, with many coordinated with the White House.

Even if Trump is not convicted by blue-state prosecutors, in blue-state courtrooms, in front of blue-state juries, he will lose critical campaigning time.

Trump may end up paying out $1 billion in legal fees and fines. At 76, the monotonous days in court are designed to destroy him financially, physically, and mentally.

Biden and his operatives know that, in the long term, they may have fatally damaged the American legal system with such judicial sabotage. But short-term, they hope to destroy Trump before the ballots are cast.

Second, in his fourth year, Biden is suddenly selling government favors to special-interest voting blocs, or hoping to bring short-term relief to voters at the expense of long-term damage to the nation.

For elite college students and graduates, there are now billions of dollars in student-loan cancellations, despite a Supreme Court ruling declaring such targeted contractual amnesties illegal.

For consumers, before the election, Biden will likely drain the last drops from the critical Strategic Petroleum Reserve to lower gas prices — now sky-high due to his previous disastrous green policies.

If that is not enough, Biden has ordered Ukraine not to hit Russian oil facilities to avoid panic in the global petroleum markets before early and mail-in balloting begin.

Biden will quietly jawbone the Federal Reserve Bank to lower interest rates and reinflate the economy, despite his own creation of hyperinflation that caused interest rates to rise in the first place.

He will pander to Arab-American voters in swing-state Michigan by cutting arms deliveries to Israel, even as it seeks to destroy the killers of Oct. 7.

And if that mollification is not sufficient to win Michigan, he will suddenly slap higher tariffs on imported Chinese electrical vehicles to win back apostate union auto workers.

Three, the left learned after 2016 that the only way to beat Trump is to change the way Americans vote.

So under the cover of the COVID-19 lockdown, the left sued in critical states to reduce Election Day to a mere construct, while 70 percent of voters mailed in their ballots or voted by early, rolling balloting over many weeks.

The key was the inability to fully authenticate votes, given the old practice of showing up on Election Day and presenting an ID was declared “racist.”

Four, Biden, as he did in 2020, will outsource his campaign to the media, 95 percent of which is left-wing. Talking televised heads will claim Biden is “sharp as a knife” while focusing on Trump’s tweets, Stormy Daniels, Michael Cohen, and lurid but irrelevant testimonies that permeate Trump’s court appearances.

Trump will continue to hold weekend-long, massive 100,000-person rallies, even in blue states. Meanwhile, Biden’s fixers in the media, administrative state, and legal community will counter that even with no crowds and no campaigning, Biden can win through 24/7 nonstop “October Surprises” — all summer long.

So expect more false “Russian collusion,” “laptop disinformation,” and “Jan. 6 insurrection” hoaxes and their new replacements designed to smother the airwaves with salacious scandals nonstop.

Biden’s fading tenure is similar to the last sad months of Woodrow Wilson’s second term, when in 1919-20, the country was assured that a bedridden president was somehow hard at work, even as his wife, doctors, and handlers kept everyone else away.

Biden’s keepers do not seem to care about the president’s own failing health or his dismal polls. They discount his rare, anemic, and disastrous public appearances. They laugh off the huge Trump rallies.

And they certainly could care less about the bad optics of pandering to special interests at the expense of the country or the damage done to the American legal and balloting systems.

Instead, Bidenites believe they can reelect an unhealthy, unpopular, and unsuccessful president by any means necessary.

And they may be right.

Authored by Ven Ram, Bloomberg cross-asset strategist,

Gold looks well poised to build on this year’s gains, with speculative momentum seeming to entice marginal buying and perpetrating a virtuous circle.

Bullion is on track for a fourth successive monthly rally, with its gains so far this year of over 15%.

While those gains appear stunning, in reality, gold adjusted for prices in the economy is far less impressive. At around $2400, it is in line with the 2011/12 highs after adjusting for inflation.

Gold must be viewed for what it actually is: an asset that delivers inflation-adjusted returns in fits and spurts with a highly inconsistent trajectory. Even so, given that we are now in a world where there is little conviction of returning to a 2% inflation regime anytime soon, bullion has room to grind higher.

Over in the US, the markets are again warming up to the idea of interest rate cuts from the Fed after the softer-than-forecast inflation prints for April. Traders now seem to be converging on September for a first reduction and are factoring in nearly two cuts by year-end. Whether or not that positioning proves accurate needs to be seen, but gold traders will be inclined to price those cuts into bullion pricing first and ask questions later.

And with geopolitical tensions staying elevated, gold will find the extra bid going in its favor.

Last October, when we pointed out that China’s FX outflows had just hit a whopping $75BN – the single biggest monthly outflow since the 2015 currency devaluation – we concluded that the “unfavorable interest rate spread between China and the US will “likely imply persistent depreciation and outflow pressures in coming months”, or in other words, September’s biggest FX outflow in years is just the beginning, and very soon – in addition to geopolitics and central banks – the world will also be freaking out about the capital flight out of China… not to mention where all those billions in Chinese savings are going and which digital currency the Chinese are using to launder said outflows.”

We wrote that on October 20 when Bitcoin was trading just under $30,000, a level it had been for much of 2023. And, just as we correctly predicted at the time…

Clockwork: every time China FX outflows surge, bitcoin erupts.

From last Friday: China Capital Flight Panic Eruptshttps://t.co/j0eWLnbFMq

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 24, 2023

… following this surge in Chinese FX outflows, bitcoin – traditionally China’s preferred means to circumvent Beijing’s great capital firewall since gold is, how should one put it, a bit more obvious when crossing borders – promptly exploded more than 100% higher in the next 4 months.

And while conventional wisdom is that this surge in the price of the digital currency was largely due to the January launch of Bitcoin ETFs, what many missed was a Reuters story in January which reiterated our original thesis from back in 2015, according to which much more than ETFs, and much more than rapidly shifting sentiment or frankly any day-to-day newsflow, it is China’s massive wall of inert capital that has been the biggest driver of bitcoin moves, and never more so than during periods of FX and capital outflows which usually precede some form of capital controls.

We bring all this up because seven months after our first correct prediction that China’s spike in FX outflows would send bitcoin surging, it’s time to do it again.

One wouldn’t know it, however, if one merely looked at the official Chinese FX reserve data published by the PBOC, here nothing sticks out. In fact, at $3.2 trillion, despite a rather notable drop for April, reported Chinese reserves are now near the highest level in past four years, and monthly flows are very much stable as shown in the chart below.

The problem, of course, is that as we have explained previously China’s officially reported reserves are woefully (and purposefully) inaccurate of the bigger picture.

Instead if one uses our preferred gauge of FX flows, one which looks at i) onshore outright spot transactions; ii) freshly entered and canceled forward transactions, and iii) the SAFE dataset on “cross-border RMB flows, we find that China’s net outflows were a massive $86BN in April, up from $11BN in February and $39BN in March and the fastest pace of outflows since the September spike in FX outflows which we duly noted half a year ago.

Drilling down, in April, we saw $50BN in net outflows via onshore outright spot transactions, and $1BN outflows via freshly entered and canceled forward transactions. Another SAFE dataset on “cross-border RMB flows” showed outflows of $35bn in the month, suggesting net receipt of RMB from onshore to offshore, likely on the back of Stock Connect outflows, but the “unusual flow” really could be anything including the unexplained  capital flight into gold and bitcoin. Ours – and Goldman’s – preferred FX flow measure therefore suggests FX outflows were really $86BN in April, more than double the official net FX outflows of $39BN in the month.

How did we get this number? First, the portfolio investment channel showed net outflows in March after adjusting for cross-border RMB receipts. Stock Connect flows showed around US$9bn outflows, vs. US$8bn outflows in March. Foreigners kept buying RMB bonds – the bond market saw US$7bn inflows in April, vs. US$6bn in March.

Finally, the current account channel also showed faster net outflows. Despite a sizeable goods trade surplus in April, we saw a small outflow of $2bn related to goods trade in April vs. an inflow of $14bn in March. The services trade deficit widened to $22bn vs. $18bn in March. The income and transfers account showed outflows of $5bn in April, faster than the $2bn outflows in March.

At the time when FX outflows were re-acclererating, the broad USD strengthened further in April, and more importantly, the USDCNY spot drifted higher, as one would expect when there is capital flight... Oh, and Bitcoin traded at its record high above $70K.

And while Chinese policymakers are still keen on maintaining FX stability (or at least create that impression) as the countercyclical factors in the daily CNY fixing remained deeply negative and front-end CNH liquidity tightened notably in recent weeks, the reality is that with China desperate to boost its exports at a time when its great mercantilist competitor, Japan, has hammered the yen to the lowest level in 3 decades, it is only a matter of time before the currency devaluation advocates win, as they did in 2015. 

We hope that we don’t have to remind readers that the first big trigger for bitcoin’s unprecedented eruption higher starting in 2015 was – you guessed it – China’s August 2015 FX devaluation, as we correctly noted at the time when we predicted that bitcoin would explode from $250 to the tens of thousands.

So don’t be surprised if in the next 6 months Bitcoin doubles again, and the move has nothing to do with ETF inflows, the halving, or frankly anything else taking place in the US… and instead is entirely driven by China’s massive wall of money which at last check was almost 3x bigger than the US.

Authored by Mike Shedlock via MishTalk.com,

This VP debate will be widely watched and a lot of fun too. I have a suggestion for Trump.

Stage Set for VP Debate

Politico reports Biden Campaign Agrees to VP Debate on CBS

The Biden campaign has accepted an invitation from CBS News for Vice President Kamala Harris to debate Donald Trump’s running mate, whoever that ends up being, a campaign official said.When that debate will take place is to be determined, though there are two dates on the table: July 23 and August 13.

The campaign official said all of the guidelines sent for the presidential debates would apply to the vice presidential contest and that they “look forward to the Trump campaign accepting one of these dates so that the full debate calendar for this campaign can be set.”

Trump has not yet settled on a running mate, though with the RNC convention slated for mid July, he will have done so prior to the earliest possible vice presidential debate opportunity.

Biden Challenges Trump to a Debate, Trump Accepts

“Make my day” said Biden to Trump in a Tweet, challenging Trump to a debate. Two debates are set. Trump seeks two more. What just happened? Think about that. I propose an answer below.

Yesterday, commented Biden Challenges Trump to a Debate, Trump Accepts, Advantage Whom?

What Just Happened?

Biden is so far behind in the swing state polls, that he needs to win these debate. If Biden was far ahead, it’s highly doubtful that he would go on stage for more than a short debate, and one as late as possible.

Trump cannot turn it down, so he upped the ante to four.

Winning two out of two for Biden will be hard enough. But if Biden flunks the first two he will want more.

Desperation Sets In

Agreeing to put Biden on the stage twice and now Kamala Harris is an amazing act of desperation.

I see no reason for Trump to do anything but drool over a VP debate.

Pick Tulsi

I have a suggestion for Trump, pick Tulsi. She fits all the needs: young, woman, moderate on abortion, non-white, excellent military service record, not a warmongering neocon, and an excellent speaker.

I believe Trump will win anyway, but the Addition of Tulsi could turn the election into an amazing rout.

Tulsi Gabbard Gives a Fabulous Speech at CPAC 2024,

Please consider Tulsi Gabbard Gives a Fabulous Speech at CPAC 2024, What’s Next?

Former US Representative Tulsi Gabbard addresses CPAC 2024. She gave a great speech, 18 minutes long. Play it.

Opening Snips

“Hi. Thank you thank you so much. Aloha.

It’s wonderful to see you all here again at such a critical time. Our democracy is under attack. The perpetrator of this attack are those who in the name of saving our democracy are destroying it. I don’t use these words lightly every one of us who loves this country and who cherishes Peace and Freedom should be very alarmed by those who driven by their insatiable hunger for power are actively undermining all that we stand for and almost every single day.

If you’re paying attention to the news and the headlines there is some new assault and some new attack. Now it’s the Democrat Elite and the swamp creatures in Washington who are doing all that they possibly can to keep us the American people from a very simple thing having the freedom to choose we want to be our next president. And it is clear through their actions they have no respect for us and they have no respect for our rights as Citizens of this Democratic Republic.

They are so terrified that we may make what they think is the wrong choice that in the of protecting democracy and saving us from ourselves they’re actually destroying our democracy and taking away our freedom now.

We look throughout history and we can see many examples of evildoers who find some justification who believe that they are doing the right thing and so today we see the Democrat Elites say with great concern in their voice that if the American Donald Trump again they warn us he will destroy our democracy they say he will be the dictator and chief that if he’s elected it will be the last election this country sees. It is so crazy. It’s laughable, but they’re justifying their actions by telling themselves that they need to destroy our democracy in order to save it.

Powerful

Some will agree with that message and some won’t.

But whether or not you agree, she delivered a powerful message, flawlessly.

It does not sound like she used a teleprompter.

Trump Says Tulsi Gabbard Is on His VP Short List

On February 21, I noted Trump Says Tulsi Gabbard Is on His VP Short List

What does Senator Tim Scott, also rumored to be on the short list, do for the ticket. Can he electrify any audience? Any constituency? Even blacks?

Worst Choices

The worst choices for Trump would be Kari Lake and Vivek Ramaswamy.

Lake cost Republicans the Arizona governorship. Fortunately, she was not mentioned on the short list.

Independents, Women, and Moderates

Wikipedia notes Gabbard has generally supported legal abortion through the first 20 weeks of pregnancy, though her views on abortion have changed over time. That is a huge plus over the typical Republican Neandertal.

For more details, please see Wikipedia’s Political Opinions of Tulsi Gabbard.

She has switched opinions on a number of items, having even backed Bernie Sanders. The Republican base won’t like that, but so what?

Where is the base going besides nowhere? The base will not decide the next election.

The more Trump can distance himself from the base, the better his chances.

Gabbard would be an excellent pick who would genuinely bring some energy to the ticket beyond the base.

I don’t expect Trump to pick Tulsi, but she, or someone like her, will be the future of the party.

People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

Immigration won’t decide the election. Polls have not yet captured what will. This may come as a surprise, but the top issue housing. More explicitly, it’s shelter costs.

Image courtesy of Axios + Generation Lab Youth Poll

I am sticking with my assessment People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election

More specifically, it will be a smaller subset of renters who hold the fate: Young voters and minorities.

Gabbard would appeal to both more than any other possible pick I can think of. And if you play the above video, it will be clear Tulsi would smash Kamala Harris in a debate, with the whole nation watching.

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

Every year, investors anxiously await the release of Warren Buffett’s annual letter to see what the “Oracle of Omaha” says about the markets, the economy, and where he is placing his money.

“One of the longest-running traditions in modern finance is that every year, one Saturday morning in late February, the world’s financial class – from professionals to mere amateurs – sit down as they have for the past 65 or so years – for an hour and read the latest Berkshire annual letter written by Warren Buffett. In that letter, the man seen by many as the world’s greatest investor, wrote down his reflections, observations, aphorisms and other thoughts which are closely parsed and analyzed for insight into what he may do next, what he thinks of the current economy and market climate, or simply for insights into how to become a better investor.” – Tyler Durden

This year’s letter was no different, with various tidbits about the current market and investing environment for investors to digest. The one thing that got most of my attention was his comments about the recent surge in cash holdings. Buffett’s cash and short-term investments (read T-bills) exceed $189 billion as of Q1, 2024.

To put that into context, that $189 billion cash pile alone would make Berkshire the 58th-largest economy in the world, only slightly smaller than Hungary.

There are two critical messages regarding Buffett’s cash hoard. The first is that due to the size of Berkshire Hathaway, which is approaching a $1 Trillion market capitalization, acquisitions have to be of substantial size. As Warren previously noted:

“There remain only a handful of companies in this country capable of truly moving the needle at Berkshire, and they have been endlessly picked over by us and by others. Some we can value; some we can’t. And, if we can, they have to be attractively priced.”

Such was an essential statement. One of the most intelligent investors in history suggests that deploying Buffett’s cash hoard in meaningful size is difficult due to an inability to find reasonably priced acquisition targets. With a $189 war chest, there are plenty of companies that Berkshire could either acquire outright, use a stock/cash offering, or acquire a controlling stake in. However, given the rampant increase in stock prices and valuations over the last decade, they are not reasonably priced.

In other words:

“Price is what you pay, value is what you get.” – Warren Buffett

The Valuation Dilemma

The problem with the valuation dilemma is that historically, such has preceded market repricings.

One of Warren Buffett’s favorite valuation measures is the market capitalization to GDP ratio. I have modified it slightly to use inflation-adjusted numbers. This measure is simple: stocks should not trade above the value of the economy. The reason is because economic activity provides revenues and earnings to businesses.

As discussed in “Stock Markets Are Detached From Everything,” the current environment is anything but opportunistic for a value investor like Warren Buffett. To wit:

“While stock prices can deviate from immediate activity, reversions to actual economic growth eventually occur. Such is because corporate earnings are a function of consumptive spending, corporate investments, imports, and exports. The market disconnect from underlying economic activity is due to psychology. Such is particularly the case over the last decade, as successive rounds of monetary interventions led investors to believe ‘this time is different.’”

There is a correlation between economic activity and the rise and fall of equity prices. For example, in 2000 and again in 2008, corporate earnings contracted by 54% and 88%, respectively, as economic growth declined. Such was despite calls for never-ending earnings growth before both previous contractions.

As earnings disappointed, stock prices adjusted by nearly 50% to realign valuations with weaker-than-expected current earnings and slower future earnings growth. So, while stock markets are once again detached from reality, looking at past earnings contractions suggests such deviations are not sustainable.

With the current market capitalization to GDP ratio data outside the historical range as economic growth slows, you can understand Berkshire’s dilemma of deploying cash.

The risk of overpaying for assets comes down to sustaining current profitability.

Berkshire’s issue of finding “reasonably priced” acquisitions is not just one of being overly picky about opportunities. After more than a decade of monetary infusions and zero interest rates, most companies are priced well beyond what economic dynamics can support.

The second message from Buffett’s cash hoard was more of a warning.

Buffett’s Cash Looking For A Crash?

“Occasionally, markets and/or the economy will cause stocks and bonds of some large and fundamentally sound businesses to be strikingly mispriced. Indeed, markets can – and will – unpredictably seize up or vanish as they did for four months in 1914 and a few days in 2001. If you believe American investors are now more stable than in the past, think back to September 2008. Speed of communication and the wonders of technology facilitates instant worldwide paralysis, and we have come a long way since smoke signals. Such instant panics won’t happen often – but they will happen.

Berkshire’s ability to immediately respond to market seizures with both huge sums and certainty of performance may offer us an occasional large-scale opportunity. Though the stock market is massively larger than it was in our early years, today’s active participants are neither more emotionally stable nor better taught than when I was in school. For whatever reasons, markets now exhibit far more casino-like behavior than when I was young. The casino now resides in many homes and daily tempts the occupants.

One investment rule at Berkshire has not and will not change: Never risk permanent loss of capital. Thanks to the American tailwind and the power of compound interest, the arena in which we operate has been – and will be – rewarding if you make a couple of good decisions during a lifetime and avoid serious mistakes.” – Warren Buffett

In other words, he holds such high cash levels to take advantage of market dislocations. Such is what happened in 2008 when the prestigious “white shoe” investment firm of Goldman Sachs came begging with “hat in hand” for a bailout to avoid bankruptcy. Buffett was glad to oblige by providing a massive infusion of capital at lucrative terms. During a crisis, those who “have the gold make the rules.”

Is there such an opportunity coming in the future? The answer is most likely yes. If we examine corporate profits as they relate to economic growth, we find another measure of excess. The chart below measures the cumulative change in the S&P 500 index compared to corporate profits. Again, when investors pay more than $1 for $1 worth of profits, those excesses are eventually reversed. The current deviation of the market from underlying profitability suggests that eventual reversion will be pretty unkind to investors.

The correlation is more evident in the market versus the price-to-corporate profits ratio. Again, since corporate profits are ultimately a function of economic growth, the correlation is not unexpected. Hence, neither should the impending reversion in both series. Currently, that ratio is approaching levels that preceded more significant market reversions to realign the markets to profitability.

As noted, the high correlation is unsurprising. Investors should expect an eventual reversal with the market on the more extreme end of the valuation spectrum. However, those reversals can take much longer to occur than logic would assume.

Investors believe the deviation between fundamentals and fantasy doesn’t matter as long as the Fed supports asset prices. Such a point remains challenging to argue.

However, as is always the case, the reversion of excesses will occur. Buffett’s cash hoard suggests that he realizes that such a reversion is not unprecedented. More importantly, he wants to capitalize on it when it occurs.