Katherine Mangu-Ward on the Death of Intrade

If you’ve heard of Intrade, you probably know
about the site’s impressive record predicting the outcome of the
last several U.S. presidential elections. Last November, traders at
the online prediction market correctly called every state except
Florida and Virginia. In 2008, Intrade missed Barack Obama’s final
Electoral College tally by just a single vote. Katherine Mangu-Ward
explains how the Intrade experiment—and much of the promise of
public prediction markets—was soon squashed by overzealous

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from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2013/11/25/katherine-mangu-ward-on-the-death-of-int

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