Reason Writers Around Town: Brian Doherty on Siegel and Shuster at the Los Angeles Review of Books

Over at the Los Angeles Review of Books, I review
Brad Ricca’s new biography of Jerry Siegel and Joe Shuster
,

Super Boys
 (Yes, this review went up a few weeks ago,
but I missed it it at first.)

Excerpts:

More people could likely identify Perry White and Lex Luthor
than could identify the men who created Superman: two Jewish kids
from Cleveland, Jerry Siegel and Joe Shuster. They were classic
schlemiels, awkward and almost delusionally dreamy, bad with women,
and so bad with business they sold one of the most valuable
inventions in literature for $130, 75 years ago. Superman’s owner,
DC Entertainment, has been celebrating this anniversary with, among
other things, a new movie, Man of Steel, alone
grossing over $650 million worldwide….

Ricca has nonetheless produced a sad pleasure of a book….We
meet teen Jerry in the early 1930s, helping invent the idea of the
science fiction fan publication; dominating his high school
newspaperThe Torch with his clever teenage wit (more
clever, from the many detailed examples that are one of this book’s
treasures, than much of his professional comic book writing in the
early days); meeting artist Joe Shuster (who like Jerry, seemed to
almost degenerate in his artistic skills from high school amateur
to comic book pro); writing a fanzine story about a villain dubbed
a “superman” with Joe’s art; and then, after failing for years to
gain the newspaper syndication they craved, finally in 1938 selling
the heroic Superman we all know for $130 to the nascent DC
Comics…

Then, the triumph and the tragedy: watching their character
capture the imagination of a nation (there was a Superman Day at
the World’s Fair by 1940); the radio waves; and the newspaper
comics where they always dreamed he’d flourish. Trying, and
failing, to reverse their bad business decision through lawsuits,
they were fired because of that first suit in the late 1940s.
Shuster fell into drawing some grim softcore porn comics (with
characters that looked pulled directly
from Superman), and a long downward spiral began, the
pair’s destitution and anger becoming the stuff of legend….

Ricca’s a good writer both on the sentence level, and at selling
the emotion he’s out to sell, though he relies overmuch on
novelistic scene setting, delivering his character’s interior
thoughts and perceptions, and perhaps fooling the reader into
forgetting that the biographer is, to put it kindly, merely
guessing….

These are mostly the cavils of one deeply enmeshed in the
historiography of comics. For a normal curious reader, Ricca did
the Clark Kent/Lois Lane reporter job well: he went out and got the
story (if not always the scoop) and tells it like it was.

What it was, was sad. The bizarrely crummy quality of Siegel’s
unpublished 1980s attempt to write a “graphic novel” was strangely
depressing. From its title, Zongolla the
Ultroid, 
and Ricca’s description, it sounds like
something Daniel Clowes might invent as a bitter joke about the
stunted imagination of the superhero comic creator.

But that’s an outsider’s judgment. I hope it’s true, as Ricca
reports, that Jerry Siegel died happy….

Me in Reason on Shuster’s
softcore porn career
, and on the enduring
power of their superhero idea
, even in “literary” comics, and
beyond.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2014/01/06/reason-writers-around-town-brian-doherty
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North Carolina Teen Shot and Killed by Cop While Two Other Cops Had Already-Tased Teen Pinned

Yet another reason why you should really try your absolutely
hardest to settle any non-clearly-life-threatening issues with your
family or friends without calling the cops.

The
Bearing Arms site
has a good compliation of various
news reports on how a North Carolina police officer shot and killed
teenage Keith Vidal, said to be suffering from schizophrenia,
after Vidal had already been tased and was pinned down by
two other cops.

Vidal’s original crime? Refusing to put down a screwdriver.

Some excerpts:

[Mark] Wilsey said his family called the police to help with his
schizophrenic son Keith Vidal who had a small screwdriver in his
hand. Officers used at Taser on Vidal and then shot him, according
to Wilsey….

Wilsey said officers had his son down on the ground after the
teen was tased a few times and an officer said, “we don’t have time
for this.” That’s when Wilsey says the officer shot in between the
officers holding the teen down, killing his son.

Then there was this story submitted by a family friend
on CNN’s
iReport
:

“…..Two Officers responded to the scene and started
negotiating with Vidal. After about 10 mins the situation started
defusing itself with Vidal becoming more rational. At that very
moment an Officer From another Town Entered the residence and
instructed the officers to stop talking and tase Vidal. As Vidal
tried to flee into the bathroom adjacent to where he was standing
the two officers simultaneously shot him with their tasers. As
Vidal Collapsed backwards on to the floor the two officers jumped
on top of the 5ft 3 100 lb Vidal to restrain him.. As Vidal’s
Father tried to step in and grab the screw driver The Southport
Police Officer that had instructed the other officers to use their
tasers, moved between the father and the pile of people on the
floor and said ” We don’t have time for this” And shot Vidal Once
in the chest as the other two Officers held him on the floor.
Vidal’s father then grabbed the officer as he was lining himself up
for another shot.”

Local district attorneys’ office is
investigating the incident
.

Protecting and serving Americans, to the grave.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2014/01/06/north-carolina-teen-shot-and-killed-by-c
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Video: Is Colorado Pot Overtaxed and Over-Regulated Already?

Is Colorado Pot Overtaxed and Over-Regulated Already? is the
latest video from ReasonTV. Watch above or click on the link below
for video, full text, supporting links, downloadable versions, and
more Reason TV clips.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2014/01/06/video-is-colorado-pot-overtaxed-and-over
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Rand Paul Calls For Snowden To Receive Light Prison Term

Sen.
Rand Paul
(R-Ky.) has called for NSA whistle-blower Edward
Snowden to receive a light prison sentence.

When asked by ABC News’ George Stephanopoulos about the New
York Times

editorial
calling for Snowden to be granted “a plea bargain or
some form of clemency” on This Week Paul said:

I don’t think Edward Snowden deserves the death penalty or life
in prison. I think that’s inappropriate. And I think that’s why he
fled, because that’s what he faced.

Paul also said that he doesn’t think it’s ok to leak national
secrets that could put lives at risk.

Paul went on to say that Snowden “probably would come home for
some penalty of a few years in prison,” adding that Director of
National Intelligence James Clapper “probably deserves” a similar
sentence for lying to Congress.

The lie
Paul referred to
took place during a Senate hearing in March,
2013. At that hearing, Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.) asked Clapper, “Does
the NSA collect any type of data at all on millions or hundreds of
millions of Americans?” Clapper replied “No sir.” When Wyden
responded “It does not?” Clapper said that the NSA does “not
wittingly” collect the amount of data Wyden referred to. Clapper
has since apologized for his response, calling it
“clearly erroneous.”

Watch the exchange below:

Paul has filed a
class-action lawsuit
against the NSA “to say to the government
and to the NSA, No, you can’t have our records without our
permission or without a warrant specific to an individual.”

Ken Cuccinelli
, the former Virginia attorney general and
gubernatorial candidate, will be a legal adviser for the suit.

Unsurprisingly, Paul’s comments on the NSA have been criticized
by Rep.
Peter King
(R-N.Y.), who says that Paul “doesn’t deserve to be
in the United States Senate” and that he “does not know what he’s
talking about.”

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2014/01/06/rand-paul-calls-for-snowden-to-receive
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J.D. Tuccille Talks Cigarette Taxes on the Thom Hartmann Radio Show

CigaretteMake a social concern go away just by
hiking taxes on it? Why haven’t the drug warriors thought of that?
Anyway, I’ll be on the Thom Hartmann show at 3pm
ET to discuss a study that
proposes tripling cigarette taxes as a means to lower tobacco
consumption around the world. It’s a brilliant idea that, clearly,
has
never occurred to policymakers
in the past. What could
possibly go wrong
with such a simple idea for reducing people’s
taste for tobacco? What cynical fool would ever suggest
unintended consequences
might occur?

Tune in for the fun.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2014/01/06/jd-tuccille-talks-cigarette-taxes-on-the
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Where Will Cuomo Get His Medical Marijuana?

The New York Times

reports
that Gov. Andrew Cuomo, perhaps having noticed
that four-fifths of New Yorkers
support
legal access to medical marijuana, has reversed his
position on the issue. According to the Times, Cuomo will
announce in his State of the State speech on Wednesday that
he plans to make marijuana available to patients with
specified conditions through a state-controlled distribution
system. That system supposedly is authorized by an obscure
law
establishing something called the Antonio G. Olivieri
Controlled Substance Therapeutic Research Program.

The New York law is one of several medical marijuana bills
passed by state legislatures in the early 1980s, a period when even
Newt Gingrich, later known as a hardline drug
warrior
, thought patients who could benefit from cannabis
should be able to obtain it legally. In 1981, a few years after the
federal government was compelled by a court order to start
supplying a small number of patients with cannabis under the
so-called
Compassionate Investigational New Drug (IND) Program
, the
Georgia congressman introduced
a bill “to provide for the therapeutic use of marihuana in
situations involving life-threatening or sense-threatening
illnesses and to provide adequate supplies of marihuana for such
use.” That bill never passed, but similar ones did at the state
level. They typically did not amount to much because obtaining a
legal supply of marijuana proved impractical.

It is not clear how Cuomo plans to overcome that obstacle.
New
York’s law
 instructs the Department of Health to seek “an
investigational new drug permit” from the Food and Drug
Administration (FDA), meaning that legislators imagined the medical
marijuana program would proceed with the federal government’s
blessing. It says the commissioner of health “shall obtain
 marijuana through whatever means he deems most appropriate,
consistent with regulations promulgated by the National Institute
on Drug Abuse,  the Food and Drug Administration and the Drug
Enforcement Administration.” If proceeding with federal approval is
not feasible, the law says, the commissioner shall conduct an
inventory of available sources” including “the New York State
Police  Bureau of Criminal Investigation and local law
enforcement officials.”

The Times notes that “state and federal laws prohibit
growing marijuana, even for medical uses,” so “New York will have
to find an alternative supply of cannabis.” It cites unidentified
officials as saying “the likely sources could include the federal
government or law enforcement agencies.” The only source of
marijuana that is authorized by federal law is the crop grown at
the University of Mississippi for the National Institute on Drug
Abuse (NIDA). That is the source of cannabis for the federal IND
program, which the first Bush administration closed to new patients
in 1992. In the unlikely event that NIDA agrees to share its pot,
which would require approval from the FDA and the DEA, the program
contemplated by Cuomo would be legal. But if he instead tries to
use marijuana seized by “law enforcement agencies,” as the
Times suggests, he would be violating federal law.
Likewise if the state tried to grow its own crop.

These schemes would violate the Controlled Substances Act in a
way that merely exempting the medical use of marijuana from state
penalties does not, because state officials would be directly
involved in supplying marijuana. That is not the case in any of the
states that currently allow medical use of cannabis, where
cultivation and distribution are handled by private parties. At the
same time, relatively few patients would benefit from Cuomo’s
plan.

The Antonio G. Olivieri Controlled Substance Therapeutic
Research Program, named after a former New York City councilman and
state legislator who used marijuana to relieve the side effects of
cancer chemotherapy before dying from a brain tumor in 1980, is
“limited to cancer patients, glaucoma patients and patients
afflicted with other diseases as such diseases are approved by the
commissioner [of health].” The Times says Cuomo’s plan
would “allow just 20 hospitals across the state to prescribe
marijuana to patients with cancer, glaucoma or other diseases that
meet standards to be set by the New York State Department of
Health.” Those rules are far stricter than the criteria used by
states such as California and Colorado; the initial list of
qualifying conditions is even shorter than the one used
in New
Jersey
, which has one of the country’s strictest medical
marijuana laws. In short, Cuomo is planning a medical marijuana
program that will be strictly limited but will probably violate
federal law if it happens at all. 

The Times notes that “medical marijuana bills have
passed the State Assembly four times—most recently in 2013—only to
stall in the Senate, where a group of breakaway Democrats shares
leadership with Republicans, who have traditionally been lukewarm
on the issue.” Hence Cuomo “has decided to bypass the Legislature
altogether.” Whether he can actually do that remains to be
seen.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2014/01/06/where-will-andrew-cuomo-get-his-medical
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Sorry, Liberals: Obamacare Won’t Lead to Single Payer

If
you spend any significant amount of time talking to conservative
activists who oppose Obamacare, you’ll eventually hear some variant
on the theory that Obamacare was never meant to work. Instead, it
was meant to destroy the existing health care system, and in the
process pave the way for liberals to step in with the comprehensive
health care fix the far left has always really longed for: single
payer. 

There’s often a hint of conspiracy surrounding the accusation,
as if President Obama and the White House senior staff had hatched
some meticulous plot to spend a year struggling to pass a health
care law that they intended to fail in a series of carefully
planned disasters sometime down the road, which would create the
perfect opening for their true, secret goal.

I’ve always thought the notion was rather far fetched. Obamacare
was a stalking horse for a modified version of Obamacare, not a
single payer conspiracy scheme. But The New Republic’s
Noam Scheiber suggests that conservative activists worried that
Obamacare will lead to single payer might be at least partially
onto something—maybe not in their belief that Obamacare was
explicitly designed as a gateway to single payer, but in their
worry that the health law will eventually lead to some sort of
nationalized health system. And unlike those concerned conservative
activists,
Scheiber thinks this is a good thing
.

The gist of Scheiber’s theory (delivered in response to
a griping Michael Moore op-ed about the health law  in


The New York Times
)
 is that the law will create a
unified, organized constituency for change. Private coverage in the
exchanges will be too expensive for many, and dealing with private
insurers will upset some beneficiaries. That will make existing
government run health insurance options more attractive. “By
pooling millions of people together in one institutional home—the
exchanges where customers buy insurance under Obamacare—the
Affordable Care Act is creating an organized constituency for
additional reform,” he writes.

I don’t doubt that as Obamacare’s flaws continues to be exposed,
liberals like Scheiber, as well as a some Democratic legislators
and even presidential candidates, will push for a single payer
overhaul. But I don’t think it’s likely to happen in the forseeable
future.

For one thing, it assumes that irritation with Obamacare—a law
designed and implemented exclusively by Democrats—will somehow
generate public support for additional Democratic health
legislation that is even more sweeping. But judging by the beating
Democrats have taken at the polls over last few months, public
frustrations with Obamacare turn the electorate
toward Republicans
. Democrats won’t be given a second chance,
with a mandate to do even more.

Scheiber’s theory also overlooks how tough passage of Obamacare
was in the first place—and how much support the administration had
to get from health industry stakeholders in order to eke out a
legislative victory. Single payer would be even tougher. Moderate
Democrats who were nervous about Obamacare the first time around
would be even less likely to support single payer, especially given
how the law
cost Democrats at the voting booth
. And there’s no way that
doctors, insurers, hospitals, and other major health industry
groups would play nice with a single-payer push. Quite the
opposite: Even beyond the insurers, much of the industry would see
single-payer as a de facto nationalization of the health system,
and they would fight the transition with everything they could
muster.

Finally, Scheiber’s argument rests on the odd idea that
individuals with private coverage will become jealous of people
with Medicare and Medicaid.

I might be willing to believe that some people would prefer
Medicare to private coverage, but Medicaid isn’t going to become a
consumer favorite any time soon. Here’s Scheiber:

There’s the likelihood that, one day soon, especially if
Medicaid becomes more generous, the working-class person who makes
175% of the poverty level will look at his working-class neighbor
making 130% of the poverty level and think, wow, his
health insurance seems a lot better than my private Obamacare
plan.

That’s some rather wishful thinking. For starters, Medicaid
isn’t likely to become more generous: State budgets are already
straining under the burden of Medicaid spending, and the federal
budget squeeze means that it’s more likely that the federal share
of the program
will be cut back
. Meanwhile, it’s hard to imagine someone with
private health insurance looking jealously at a program that has

no statistically significant effect on physical health
outcomes
, and that has even been found, in a
couple of narrow instances
, to produce health outcomes that are
worse than no insurance at all.

Might Obamacare lead to a handful of state-level experiments
with single-payer variants? Possibly,
although that mostly means that very liberal states with heavily
consolidated insurance markets will explicitly transform their
insurance industries into public utilities. 

There’s a weird overlap between conservative fears and liberal
hopes when it comes to single payer: Both seem to think that
Obamacare makes a universal government-run system more likely. But
both are wrong.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2014/01/06/sorry-liberals-obamacare-wont-lead-to-si
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S&P At 2,200, 4% On The 10 Year, WTI Over $110 And Bitcoin At $0 – Byron Wien's 2014 Predictions

The predictions of Blackstone’s octogenarian Byron Wien (born in 1933) have been all over the place in the past 10 years, some correct, most wrong (with a recent hit rate of about 25%) – his 2013 year end S&P forecast was for 1300 – yet always entertaining. Which is the only value in the latest release of his 10 forecasts for 2014. Naturally, take all of these with a salt mine.

Byron’s Ten Surprises of 2014 are as follows:

  1. We experience a Dickensian market with the best of times and the worst of times. The worst comes first as geopolitical problems coupled with euphoric extremes lead to a sharp correction of more than 10%. The best then follows with a move to new highs as the Standard & Poor’s 500 approaches a 20% total return by year end (ZH: or, said otherwise, S&P 500 at 2200).
  2. The U.S. economy finally breaks out of its doldrums. Growth exceeds 3% and the unemployment rate moves toward 6%. Fed tapering proves to be a non-event.
  3. The strength of the U.S. economy relative to Europe and Japan allows the dollar to strengthen. It trades below $1.25 against the euro and buys 120 yen.
  4. Shinzo Abe is the only world leader who understands that Dick Cheney was right when he said that deficits don’t matter. He continues his aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion and the Nikkei 225 rises to 18,000 early in the year, but the increase in the sales tax, the aging population and declining work force finally begin to take their toll and the market suffers a sharp (20%) correction in the second half.
  5. China’s Third Plenum policies to rebalance the economy toward the consumer and away from a dependence on investment spending slow the growth rate to 6% in 2014. Chinese mainland traded equities have another disappointing year. The new leaders emphasize that their program is best for the country in the long run.
  6. Emerging market investing continues to prove treacherous. Strong leadership and growth policies in Mexico and South Korea result in significant appreciation in their equities, but other emerging markets fail to follow their performance.
  7. In spite of increased U.S. production the price of West Texas Intermediate crude exceeds $110. Demand from developing economies continues to outweigh conservation and reduced consumption in the developed world.
  8. The rising standard of living and the shift to more consumer-oriented economies in the emerging markets result in a reversal of the decline in agricultural commodity prices. Corn goes to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 and soybeans to $16.00.
  9. The strength in the U.S. economy coupled with somewhat higher inflation causes the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise to 4%. Short-term rates stay near zero, but the increase in intermediate-term yields has a negative impact on housing and a positive effect on the dollar.
  10. The Affordable Care Act has a remarkable turnaround. The computer access problems are significantly diminished and younger people begin signing up. Obama’s approval rating rises and in the November elections the Democrats not only retain control of the Senate but even gain seats in the House.

Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten either because I do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are “probable.”

Also rans:

  1. Through a combination of intelligence, extremism, celebrity and cunning Ted Cruz emerges as the clear front runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Chris Christie and the moderates fade in popularity as momentum builds for fiscal and social conservative policies.
  2. In 2½ years the price of a Bitcoin has increased from $25 to $975. The supply of Bitcoins is fixed at 21 million with 11.5 million in circulation. Bitcoins lack gold’s position as a store of value over time. During the year Bitcoin’s acceptance collapses as investors realize that it cannot be used as collateral in financial transactions and its principal utility is for illegal business dealings where anonymity is important.
  3. Overcoming objections from the Cuban exile community, President Obama opens discussions on initiating trade and diplomatic relations with Cuba. A reduction in sanctions is proposed, as well as limited financial support in the form of bonds, quickly dubbed as “Castro convertibles.”
  4. Hillary Clinton decides not to run for President in 2016. She says her work with various Clinton non-for-profit initiatives is important and unfinished. Specifically, she explains that her health was not an issue in her decision. The Democratic race for the top seat becomes chaotic.

* * *

Good luck Byron

And as a reminder, from a year ago here are Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2013.

  1. Iran announces it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim. Sanctions, the devaluation of the currency, weak economic conditions and diplomacy did not stop the weapons program. The world must deal with Iran as a nuclear threat rather than talk endlessly about how to prevent the nuclear capability from happening. Both the United States and Israel shift to a policy of containment rather than prevention.
  2. A profit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 to decline below $100, disappointing investors. The S&P 500 trades below 1300. Companies complain of limited pricing power in a slow, highly competitive world economic environment.
  3. Financial stocks have a rough time, reversing the gains of 2012. Intense competition in commercial and investment banking, together with low trading volumes, puts pressure on profits. Layoffs continue and compensation erodes further. Regulation increases and lawsuits persist as an industry burden.
  4. In a surprise reversal the Democrats sponsor a vigorous program to make the United States independent of Middle East oil imports before 2020. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude falls to $70 a barrel. The Administration proposes easing restrictions on hydraulic fracking for oil and gas in less populated areas and allowing more drilling on Federal land. They see energy production, infrastructure and housing as the key job creators in the 2013 economy.
  5. In a surprise reversal the Republicans make a major effort to become leaders in immigration policy. They sponsor a bill that paves the way for illegal immigrants to apply for citizenship if they have lived in the United States for a decade, have no criminal record, have a high school education or have served in the military, and can pass an English proficiency test. Their goal for 2016 is to win the Hispanic vote, which they believe has a naturally conservative orientation and which put the Democrats over the top in 2012.
  6. The new leaders in China seem determined to implement reforms to root out corruption, to keep the economy growing at 7% or better and to begin to develop improved health care and retirement programs. The Shanghai Composite finally comes alive and the “A” shares are up more than 20% in 2013, in contrast with the previous year when Chinese stocks were down and some developing markets, notably India, rose.
  7. Climate change contribut
    es to another year of crop failures
    , resulting in grain and livestock prices rising significantly. Demand for grains in developing economies continues to increase as the standard of living rises. More investors focus on commodities as an investment opportunity and increase their allocation to this asset class. Corn rises to $8.00 a bushel, wheat to $9.00 a bushel and cattle to $1.50 a pound.
  8. Although inflation remains tame, the price of gold reaches $1,900 an ounce as central bankers everywhere continue to debase their currencies and the financial markets prove treacherous.
  9. The Japanese economy remains lackluster and the yen declines to 100 against the dollar. The Nikkei 225 continues the strong advance that began in November and trades above 12,000 as exports improve and investors return to the stocks of the world’s third largest economy.
  10. The structural problems of Europe remain largely unresolved and the mild recession that began there in 2012 continues. Civil unrest subsides as the weaker countries adjust to austerity. Greece proves successful in implementing policies that reduce wasteful government expenditures and raise revenues from citizens who had been evading taxes. European equities, however, decline 10% in sympathy with the U.S. market.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4q5e5hjQU5o/story01.htm Tyler Durden

S&P At 2,200, 4% On The 10 Year, WTI Over $110 And Bitcoin At $0 – Byron Wien’s 2014 Predictions

The predictions of Blackstone’s octogenarian Byron Wien (born in 1933) have been all over the place in the past 10 years, some correct, most wrong (with a recent hit rate of about 25%) – his 2013 year end S&P forecast was for 1300 – yet always entertaining. Which is the only value in the latest release of his 10 forecasts for 2014. Naturally, take all of these with a salt mine.

Byron’s Ten Surprises of 2014 are as follows:

  1. We experience a Dickensian market with the best of times and the worst of times. The worst comes first as geopolitical problems coupled with euphoric extremes lead to a sharp correction of more than 10%. The best then follows with a move to new highs as the Standard & Poor’s 500 approaches a 20% total return by year end (ZH: or, said otherwise, S&P 500 at 2200).
  2. The U.S. economy finally breaks out of its doldrums. Growth exceeds 3% and the unemployment rate moves toward 6%. Fed tapering proves to be a non-event.
  3. The strength of the U.S. economy relative to Europe and Japan allows the dollar to strengthen. It trades below $1.25 against the euro and buys 120 yen.
  4. Shinzo Abe is the only world leader who understands that Dick Cheney was right when he said that deficits don’t matter. He continues his aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion and the Nikkei 225 rises to 18,000 early in the year, but the increase in the sales tax, the aging population and declining work force finally begin to take their toll and the market suffers a sharp (20%) correction in the second half.
  5. China’s Third Plenum policies to rebalance the economy toward the consumer and away from a dependence on investment spending slow the growth rate to 6% in 2014. Chinese mainland traded equities have another disappointing year. The new leaders emphasize that their program is best for the country in the long run.
  6. Emerging market investing continues to prove treacherous. Strong leadership and growth policies in Mexico and South Korea result in significant appreciation in their equities, but other emerging markets fail to follow their performance.
  7. In spite of increased U.S. production the price of West Texas Intermediate crude exceeds $110. Demand from developing economies continues to outweigh conservation and reduced consumption in the developed world.
  8. The rising standard of living and the shift to more consumer-oriented economies in the emerging markets result in a reversal of the decline in agricultural commodity prices. Corn goes to $5.25 a bushel, wheat to $7.50 and soybeans to $16.00.
  9. The strength in the U.S. economy coupled with somewhat higher inflation causes the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury to rise to 4%. Short-term rates stay near zero, but the increase in intermediate-term yields has a negative impact on housing and a positive effect on the dollar.
  10. The Affordable Care Act has a remarkable turnaround. The computer access problems are significantly diminished and younger people begin signing up. Obama’s approval rating rises and in the November elections the Democrats not only retain control of the Senate but even gain seats in the House.

Every year there are always a few Surprises that do not make the Ten either because I do not think they are as relevant as those on the basic list or I am not comfortable with the idea that they are “probable.”

Also rans:

  1. Through a combination of intelligence, extremism, celebrity and cunning Ted Cruz emerges as the clear front runner for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. Chris Christie and the moderates fade in popularity as momentum builds for fiscal and social conservative policies.
  2. In 2½ years the price of a Bitcoin has increased from $25 to $975. The supply of Bitcoins is fixed at 21 million with 11.5 million in circulation. Bitcoins lack gold’s position as a store of value over time. During the year Bitcoin’s acceptance collapses as investors realize that it cannot be used as collateral in financial transactions and its principal utility is for illegal business dealings where anonymity is important.
  3. Overcoming objections from the Cuban exile community, President Obama opens discussions on initiating trade and diplomatic relations with Cuba. A reduction in sanctions is proposed, as well as limited financial support in the form of bonds, quickly dubbed as “Castro convertibles.”
  4. Hillary Clinton decides not to run for President in 2016. She says her work with various Clinton non-for-profit initiatives is important and unfinished. Specifically, she explains that her health was not an issue in her decision. The Democratic race for the top seat becomes chaotic.

* * *

Good luck Byron

And as a reminder, from a year ago here are Byron’s Ten Surprises for 2013.

  1. Iran announces it has adequate enriched uranium to produce a nuclear-armed missile and the International Atomic Energy Agency confirms the claim. Sanctions, the devaluation of the currency, weak economic conditions and diplomacy did not stop the weapons program. The world must deal with Iran as a nuclear threat rather than talk endlessly about how to prevent the nuclear capability from happening. Both the United States and Israel shift to a policy of containment rather than prevention.
  2. A profit margin squeeze and limited revenue growth cause 2013 earnings for the Standard & Poor’s 500 to decline below $100, disappointing investors. The S&P 500 trades below 1300. Companies complain of limited pricing power in a slow, highly competitive world economic environment.
  3. Financial stocks have a rough time, reversing the gains of 2012. Intense competition in commercial and investment banking, together with low trading volumes, puts pressure on profits. Layoffs continue and compensation erodes further. Regulation increases and lawsuits persist as an industry burden.
  4. In a surprise reversal the Democrats sponsor a vigorous program to make the United States independent of Middle East oil imports before 2020. The price of West Texas Intermediate crude falls to $70 a barrel. The Administration proposes easing restrictions on hydraulic fracking for oil and gas in less populated areas and allowing more drilling on Federal land. They see energy production, infrastructure and housing as the key job creators in the 2013 economy.
  5. In a surprise reversal the Republicans make a major effort to become leaders in immigration policy. They sponsor a bill that paves the way for illegal immigrants to apply for citizenship if they have lived in the United States for a decade, have no criminal record, have a high school education or have served in the military, and can pass an English proficiency test. Their goal for 2016 is to win the Hispanic vote, which they believe has a naturally conservative orientation and which put the Democrats over the top in 2012.
  6. The new leaders in China seem determined to implement reforms to root out corruption, to keep the economy growing at 7% or better and to begin to develop improved health care and retirement programs. The Shanghai Composite finally comes alive and the “A” shares are up more than 20% in 2013, in contrast with the previous year when Chinese stocks were down and some developing markets, notably India, rose.
  7. Climate change contributes to another year of crop failures, resulting in grain and livestock prices rising significantly. Demand for grains in developing economies continues to increase as the standard of living rises. More investors focus on commodities as an investment opportunity and increase their allocation to this asset class. Corn rises to $8.00 a bushel, wheat to $9.00 a bushel and cattle to $1.50 a pound.
  8. Although inflation remains tame, the price of gold reaches $1,900 an ounce as central bankers everywhere continue to debase their currencies and the financial markets prove treacherous.
  9. The Japanese economy remains lackluster and the yen declines to 100 against the dollar. The Nikkei 225 continues the strong advance that began in November and trades above 12,000 as exports improve and investors return to the stocks of the world’s third largest economy.
  10. The structural problems of Europe remain largely unresolved and the mild recession that began there in 2012 continues. Civil unrest subsides as the weaker countries adjust to austerity. Greece proves successful in implementing policies that reduce wasteful government expenditures and raise revenues from citizens who had been evading taxes. European equities, however, decline 10% in sympathy with the U.S. market.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/4q5e5hjQU5o/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Government-Made Famine in Zimbabwe Threatens 2.2 Million

MugabeZimbabwe used to be a breadbasket for much of
southern Africa. In 2000, the country’s long-time dictator Robert
Mugabe ordered the farms of white farmers be seized and divvied up
among his cronies.
Corn production fell
from 2.148 million tons to 500,000 tons in
2002 and was 800,000 tons in 2013.
Wheat production fell
from 255,000 tons to 150,000 tons in 2002
and was 25,000 tons in 2013. As a result, the country has had to
import grain to prevent famine several times. This year Zimbabwe
will have to
import 150,000 tons
of corn to forestall staravation among 2.2
million Zimbabweans. 

Mugabe has followed to near perfection the recipe for producing
poverty that I laid out in my 2002 article. “Poor
Planning
.”

Some recipes guaranteed to get lean results

Here, then, is a short guide for kleptocrats and egalitarians
who want to keep their countries poor. All of these policies have
stood the test of time as techniques for creating and maintaining
poverty. The list is by no means exhaustive, but it will give
would-be political leaders a good idea of how to start their
countries on the road to ruin.

First, make sure that your country’s money is no good.
Print money like there’s no tomorrow. Hyperinflation is one of the
easiest and most popular ways to dismantle an economy. Another
popular monetary gambit is to make sure your currency is not
convertible. This guarantees that no one will ever want to invest
in your country.

To further discourage investment, be sure to nationalize all
major Industries
. Nationalization has additional
poverty-enhancing benefits. For example, it will ensure that the
nationalized industries never improve technologically or become
more efficient, and it makes workers pathetically dependent on
their political masters, namely you.

Of course, you may find it too tiresome to nationalize
everything, in which case it is very important that you
establish high tariffs that insulate your country’s
remaining private industries (usually owned by your cronies anyway)
from competition.

In addition, your legal system should make it nearly
impossible for anyone to license a new business
, however
small. This will offer opportunities for your bureaucrats to make a
living through corruption and will protect your cronies from
domestic competition. An added advantage is that most commerce will
be made illegal and subject to arbitrary enforcement.

This leads to the point that property is critical.
Once people start to own something, they invest in it
and improve it, leading inexorably to the creation of wealth.
Again, the legal system can help to make it impossible to issue
clear titles
so that your citizens can’t buy, sell, or borrow
against their “property.” Also, force your farmers to sell
their crops to government commodity boards
at below-market
rates. This will discourage them from investing in anything more
advanced than subsistence agriculture, and you will be able to sell
whatever crops you do seize at low prices to keep the urban
populations quiet.

Another popular policy is confiscatory taxes. This strategy,
which allows you to claim that you are soaking the rich in the name
of equity, has long been fashionable among the genteelly stagnating
economies of Europe.

Finally, you may have missed the golden age of international
graft, when the World Bank and even commercial banks showered the
governments of poor countries with loans. But if the opportunity
arises, you should follow in the footsteps of two deceased leaders
whose fortunes are now being divvied up in “Please
Help

spams
: Zairean dictator Mobutu Sese Seko and Nigerian General
Sani Abacha. Take a page from their book by redirecting
international loans directly to your Swiss bank
accounts
, sticking your citizens with the bill.

In other news, it is rumored that the nearly 90 year-old Mugabe
may have “collapsed.”

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2014/01/06/man-made-famine-in-zimbabwe-threatens-2
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