Month: January 2014

One of our favorite themes in the past year has been watching Mario “Whatever it takes” Draghi reel powerless before the relentless contraction in Eurozone credit. Most recently, in November we reported that “when the ECB announced a “surprising” rate cut, 67 out of 70 economists who never saw it coming, were shocked. We were not. As we observed ten days prior, Europe had just seen the latest month of record low private sector loan growth in history. Or rather contraction. Back than we said that “one of our favorite series of posts describing the “Walking Dead” monetary zombie-infested continent that is Europe is the one showing the abysmal state Europe’s credit creation machinery, operated by none other than the Bank of Italy’s, Goldman’s ECB’s Mario Draghi, finds itself in.”

We concluded: “we now fully expect a very unclear Draghi, plagued by monetary zombie dreams, to do everything in his power, even though as SocGen notes, he really has no power in this case, to show he has not lost control and start with a rate cut in the November ECB meeting (eventually proceeding to a full-blown QE) in order to boost loan creation.” Less than two weeks later he did just that. The problem, as the ECB reported today, is that not only did M3 decline once more, to 1.4% or the slowest pace in over 2 years and well below the ECB’s 4.5% reference growth value, but more importantly lending to companies and households shrank 2.1% in October – the biggest drop on record! Draghi’s monetary zombies are winning.”

* * *

Fast forward to today, when the ECB just announced the latest set of undead monetary statistics for November. To nobody’s surprise, even though M3 posted the tiniest of possible annual increases, rising from 1.4% to 1.5% (3% below the ECB’s 4.5% reference value which it considers consistent with its price stability mandate), loan creation to the private sector declined once again, this time dumping to -2.3% from a revised -2.2%. As the WSJ reports what we have said for the past year, “The deepening decline increases pressure on the central bank to embark on further measures to stimulate lending, analysts said.”

By the numbers: in November lending to households declined by 3 billion euros ($4.1 billion) reversing the €3 billion increase in October, while lending to firms fell by €13 billion, following a €15 billion drop in the previous month. Loans to firms were down by 3.9% on the year.

And visually:

What does it mean for the future of ECB actions? The ECB, citing the chief economist at IHS Global Insight in London said that “he expects the ECB to stand pat at its next meeting on Jan. 9, he thinks it will take more action early in 2014, “most likely” as another longer-term loan. It is “highly possible” that a future loan would be “tailored specifically toward bank lending.”

Or, looking at the way the EUR is dumping this morning, the ECB may once again shock everyone and do much more than this action, which is already conventionally accepted, and not only take rates even lower but potentially engage in the first case of full blown QE. After all, following three failed SMP sterilizations, it is not as if even the ECB is pretending to be “sterilizing” its previous episode of QE.

Goldman’s assessment:

While activity data in the Euro area have stabilised, we expect bank lending to the corporate sector to remain weak, reflecting a weak recovery, heightened credit risk aversion on the part of peripheral banks and continued balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors. The ECB’s Asset Quality Review (AQR), based on banks’ balance sheet as of end-December, might have contributed to weak bank lending in recent months.

That…or the cold winter weather of course. Cause there is always something to explain away central planning failure.

Finally those looking for the culprits for Europe’s lending freeze, look no further than Italy…

… and, of course, a “recovering” Spain:

Source: ECB

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/-_rtA-C7RxE/story01.htm Tyler Durden

As we warned was likely to happen back in February of 2013 (given the typical trajectory of earnings expectations through a year), JP Morgan has confirmed that the S&P 500 is now more expensive on a forward P/E basis than it was at its peak in October 2007. So, despite the self-referential bias of each and every talking head asset-gatherer on mainstream media's denial, stocks do not offer value here… no matter how many TINAs or BTFATHs you hear…

 

At 15.4x NTM earnings, the S&P 500 is now 0.2x turns more expensive than at its peak in October 2007

 

Furthermore, on a Price-to-Book, Price-to-Cash-Flow, and Price-to-Sales basis, the S&P 500 is also well above its average valuation levels…

 

Still think we can grow into more multiple expansion… then you better hope for an unprecedented rise in confidence…

 

So, are stocks cheap?

Source: JPMorgan

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/JXBGv_TH_ho/story01.htm Tyler Durden

With Bitcoin having almost completed another double off the Dec 17 lows…

 

 

…it is hardly surprising that the fast-money volatility-chasing world of 2-and-20-ers is reaching out for a Bitcoin Execution Trader.

 

(h/t @Besvinick)

 

The San Francisco hedge fund is hiring a “Junior” position, which suggests they already have a “senior” trader who has got tired of trading the digital currency 24 hours a day and is looking to offload the 24x7x365 duties to a lower-level employee with “strong analytic skills” and who is “willing to work odd hours including weekends and late nights/early mornings.”

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/8UEhqwSmygg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

It’s that cold. BBC reports that Firemen tackling a blaze in Minneapolis, where temperatures have been below -20C, saw the spray from their hoses turn to ice as it hit the building. Watch it below.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/-5AlgmRVx5Q/story01.htm Tyler Durden

It’s that cold. BBC reports that Firemen tackling a blaze in Minneapolis, where temperatures have been below -20C, saw the spray from their hoses turn to ice as it hit the building. Watch it below.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/-5AlgmRVx5Q/story01.htm Tyler Durden

• Heavy snowstorm hammers northeastern U.S. (Reuters)
• Coins Remain a Bright Spot for Gold (WSJ)
• Gross’s Mistake on Fed Taper Echoes Across Pimco Funds (BBG)
• China December services PMI falls to four-month low (Reuters)
• General Mills Starts Making Some Cheerios Without GMOs (WSJ)
• U.S. considers flammability risk of Bakken crude after accidents (Reuters)
• China Mobile’s Costly iPhone Deal with Apple (WSJ)
• Hezbollah Upgrades Missile Threat to Israel (WSJ)
• UK House Prices Cap Best Year Since 2006 as Mortgages Surge (BBG)
• China tells police to be loyal to party amid graft crackdown (Reuters)
• Pimco Sees Dim Sum Refinancing Boom on Cash Crunch  (BBG)
• Obamacare Medicaid Expansion to Worsen Hospital ER Burden (BBG)
• Finra to Crack Down on Brokers With High Number of Complaints (WSJ)
• Euro-Zone Private Lending Plunges (WSJ)
• India Prime Minister Won’t Seek a Third Term (WSJ)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* The dollar surged in the first trading day of 2014, in anticipation that U.S. economic growth this year will outpace the recovery in Europe and other regions.

* The federal government warned that crude oil from the Bakken Shale in North Dakota may be more flammable than other types of crude.

* Cox Enterprises Inc, the closely held media conglomerate, has bought back a stake in AutoTrader Group Inc in a deal that implies a value of about $7 billion for the online auto marketplace.

* Sales of gold coins are booming even as the metal’s price is falling, a testament to gold’s continued appeal for small investors and collectors despite its first bear market in more than a decade.

* U.S. passenger airlines are bracing for the start of new federal regulations on Saturday that will guarantee their pilots more rest time and restrict the hours they can put in behind the cockpit controls.

* When Mathew Martoma’s insider-trading trial begins next week, federal prosecutors will arrive armed with what they believe is one of the strongest cases to emerge from their decade-long investigation into SAC Capital Advisors LP. Lawyers from the U.S. attorney’s office in Manhattan are expected to call two doctors who will testify that they passed inside tips on pharmaceutical drug tests to Martoma, a former portfolio manager at the large hedge fund.

* Mandiant, the consulting firm known for outing Chinese hackers, is being purchased by FireEye Inc, the Silicon Valley company that went public last fall for about $1 billion.

* Martha Stewart Living Omnimedia Inc has settled legal disputes with Macy’s Inc and J.C. Penney Co over an ill-fated merchandising agreement, but Macy’s and Penney still need to resolve their differences. Stewart found herself embroiled in a legal triangle after her company agreed in late 2011 to make bedding, bath and other products for Penney. Macy’s sued both companies, arguing the deal violated a previous agreement it had with the domestic diva to sell similar items exclusively at its stores.

* The outlook for Cape Wind, a U.S. offshore wind farm project, brightened a bit as its main public investor, Pension Danmark, said it would keep its financial commitment to the project even though a key year-end deadline was missed.

 

FT

Thatcherites used the allegory of City knights and peasants, one of thousands of government documents that have been declassified from 1984 reveal.

Facebook is facing a class-action lawsuit over claims the social network monitors users’ private messages to sell the data to advertisers.

The plaintiffs allege Facebook systematically intercepts private messages to obtain data it shares with marketers, giving the company an advantage over other data aggregators.

Disastrous Christmas trading has plunged Debenhams, one of Britain’s biggest high street retailers, into crisis, forcing its finance director to quit and prompting investors to question whether the current chief executive can turn the company around.

Mandiant, a US cyber security company at the forefront of fighting a new wave of cyber attacks, has been bought for more than $1bn, in a deal that highlights the growing concern about government-backed online spying from China and the US National Security Agency.

The world’s factories roared into life towards the end of 2013 as manufacturing activity delivered its fastest growth in almost three years, fuelling hopes that the global recovery will accelerate this year.

 

NYT

* DreamWorks Animation SKG has partnered with a technology company, Fuhu, to make a tablet computer that the studio will be able to program much like a cable channel for children, a highly coveted audience.

* Ezra Klein, an analyst, columnist and television commentator who runs The Washington Post’s Wonkblog, is making plans to leave the newspaper after failing to win support for a new website he wanted to create within the company, according to four people with knowledge of the negotiations.

* The New York Times said on Thursday that it would launch its redesigned website on Jan. 8. The new platform, which will allow for better integration of video and photography with text, among other features, would be available to a small group of readers immediately as a test rollout, The Times said.

* Former United States Senator from the Democratic Party and the its nominee for Vice President in the 2000 election Joseph Lieberman joins private equity firm Victory Park Capital to help with them with his regulatory expertise.

* A planned expansion of the Panama Canal may be halted because of a dispute between the building consortium and canal authorities over $1.6 billion in extra costs.

* Financial industry regulators are hoping to enact a rule this year that would make it easier for investors to find out if a broker pushing to sell them a stock, bond or other investment product has a clean record.

* Wal-Mart Stores Inc says it’s considering taking legal action against “responsible parties” after DNA testing showed traces of fox meat in the donkey meat it sold in China.

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* Toronto’s Deputy Mayor Norm Kelly says he is “exploring” whether to call in the army, with the city facing a lengthy and costly cleanup after an ice storm that knocked out power to 300,000 homes and other buildings.

* Hundreds of Albertans are lining up to get flu shots as the number of confirmed cases of H1N1 climbs in the province, with residents saying they are getting vaccinated out of concern for little children.

* Employers convicted of human trafficking, sexually assaulting or causing the death of an employee will be allowed to access the Temporary Foreign Worker program after Ottawa decided to back away from a proposed ban. Ottawa had released draft regulations in June that proposed to ban employers from using the program if they have at least one conviction from a list of criminal offences. But the final version of the regulations, which took effect on Dec. 31, removed that provision.

* The prospect of liquefied natural gas plants being built in northwestern British Columbia has sent assessed values for residential properties soaring in the region.

Reports in the business section:

* BlackBerry Ltd has snuffed out its partnership with the Girl on Fire. The Waterloo, Ontario company said Thursday it is parting ways with singer and celebrity Alicia Keys on Jan. 30, one year after she took on the role of “global creative director” to accompany the launch of the BlackBerry 10 smartphone.

* The province of Quebec formally linked its cap-and-trade system with California’s market on Thursday, as the two jurisdictions plow ahead with ambitious plans to put an escalating price on carbon in order to reduce emissions.

* Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd has agreed to sell the western end of its Dakota, Minnesota and Eastern railway in the United States for about $210 million. The buyer is Genesee & Wyoming Inc, which operates short-line and regional freight railways in the United States, Australia, Canada, the Netherlands and Belgium.

* Calgary based TransCanada Corp said Thursday it has bought Mississippi Mills in eastern Ontario from Canadian Solar Solutions Inc as part of the ongoing expansion of its presence in the renewable energy sector.

NATIONAL POST

* Canada’s auditor general has notified senators that a sweeping probe of their spending may include visits to their homes, and that they could be interviewed under oath in “exceptional circumstances.” The details are laid out in documents auditor general Michael Ferguson’s office provided to senators in November about the comprehensive audit of Senate expenses.

* The Opposition says Alberta’s governing Progressive Conservative party should be forced to repay more than C$1 million ($939,900) in taxpayer money spent on signs touting building projects in the province. The Wildrose party says the signs, in hues similar to Tory colors and featuring Premier Alison Redford’s name, are nothing more than partisan political advertising.

FINANCIAL POST

* The Canada Revenue Agency is planning to cut auditors at the same time it acknowledges difficulty in tracking and collecting billions of dollars in unreported income from domestic and international tax evasion.

* Simmering disputes over the oil sands between Alberta aboriginals and the provincial and federal governments will break into the open in 2014 as virtually every one of the many recent changes in oversight of the controversial industry comes under legal and political attack.

 

China

CHINA DAILY

– Chinese judges are quitting in droves, complaining of too much interference from government officials, heavy caseloads, and salaries of 5,000 yuan ($830) per month.

CHINA BUSINESS NEWS

– China is expected to take over the United States as the world’s largest foreign trader by volume in 2013.

PEOPLE’S DAILY

– A poll by the National Bureau of Statistics showed 87.3 percent of citizens surveyed in 21 provinces believed a campaign against official corruption launched by the country’s new leadership, which came into power in November 2012, had won some success.

SHANGHAI DAILY

– A helicopter from the Chinese icebreaker Snow Dragon picked up the first batch of passengers from stranded Russian ship MV Akademik Shokalskiy as a rescue operation got underway in the Antarctic on Thursday.

SECURITIES TIMES

– The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to revise rules, including those governing corporate restructuring, to implement principles announced last month by the State Council, the cabinet, to strengthen protection of small investors.

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– Another five companies have obtained regulatory approvals to launch initial public offerings (IPOs), with general equipment producer Anhui Yingliu Electromechanical publishing its share issue prospectus to float 80 million shares for a listing on the Shanghai Stock Exchange. More than a dozen firms have won approvals to launch IPOs since China ended a 14-month freeze.

– The first batch of companies launching IPOs after the freeze appears to be pricing their issues at 20 to 30 times of their historical earnings, lower than prices that firms fixed before the freeze, because regulators have issued new rules to clamp down on excessive pricing and rampant speculation in new shares.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

– China CNR Corp, one of the country’s top two train makers, said it won approval from the state asset management bureau to issue H shares to be listed on the Hong Kong stock exchange.

– China will study Tobin Tax, a proposal made by the European Union to levy trading tax globally on spot foreign exchange transactions so as to curb speculation, vice central bank governor Yi Gang said in an article published by the “Qiu Shi” (Seeking Truth) magazine.

 

Birtain

The Telegraph

AGUSTAWESTLAND WARNS UK JOBS UNDER THREAT AFTER INDIA CANCELS CONTRACT

British helicopter company AgustaWestland has prepared a “mitigation plan” that involves “a reduction to the workforce” after the Indian government terminated a £465m contract

IMF PAPER WARNS OF ‘SAVINGS TAX’ AND MASS WRITE-OFFS AS WEST’S DEBT HITS 200-YEAR HIGH

Much of the Western world will require defaults, a savings tax and higher inflation to clear the way for recovery as debt levels reach a 200-year high, according to a new report by the International Monetary Fund.

The Guardian

GOLDFISH DEATH AMONG FLIMSIEST EXCUSES FOR SENDING LATE TAX RETURNS

The tax agency has compiled a list of the most “bizarre and flimsy” excuses for sending in a late tax return, including a builder who was mourning the death of his pet goldfish and a trader who claimed his wife refused to hand over his mail.

DEBENHAMS CHIEF EXECUTIVE UNDER PRESSURE AFTER PROFIT WARNING

Debenhams’ chief executive, Michael Sharp, is under mounting pressure to turn around the department store group’s performance after its finance director, Simon Herrick, was forced to resign in the wake of this week’s profit warning.

The Times

HOUSE OF FRASER CHIEF SAYS PREPARED TO FLOAT FIRM THIS YEAR

Record Christmas trading at House of Fraser has laid the ground for its flotation before the end of the year, according to its chief executive.

NATWEST CARDS BLOCKED BY TESCO PUMPS

NatWest and Royal Bank of Scotland debit and credit card users have had their cards locked after trying to pay for fuel at Tesco petrol stations.

The Independent

SIGNS OF STRONG GROWTH IN UK MANUFACTURING CONTINUE

UK manufacturers are beginning 2014 in their best condition in nearly three years, according to the latest health check of the industry’s fortunes.

BBC’S LIZ BARCLAY JOINS THE FINANCIAL SERVICES CONSUMER PANEL

BBC business journalist Liz Barclay is set to join the Financial Consumer Panel, which advises the Financial Conduct Authority.

 

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

DTE Energy (DTE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Fidelity National (FNF) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Capital
Finisar (FNSR) upgraded to Strong Buy from Outperform at Raymond James
Infosys (INFY) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at HSBC
Maxim Integrated (MXIM) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
MetLife (MET) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Janney Capital
PPL Corp. (PPL) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
PSEG (PEG) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Sirius XM (SIRI) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Evercore
Westar Energy (WR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup

Downgrades

ARM Holdings (ARMH) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
Applied Micro (AMCC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at BMO Capital
Chubb (CB) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital
Consolidated Edison (ED) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Coronado (CNDO) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
Endurance Specialty (ENH) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital
Entergy (ETR) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
Exelon (EXC) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
FirstEnergy (FE) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
General Electric (GE) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
IPC The Hospitalist Co. (IPCM) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse
Joy Global (JOY) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman
Micron (MU) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Moog (MOG.A) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
NRG Yield (NYLD) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
Prudential (PRU) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital
Sprint (S) downgraded to Sell from Hold at Stifel
White Mountains (WTM) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Janney Capital

Initiations

Bank of Montreal (BMO) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital
Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital
CIBC (CM) initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital
CNO Financial (CNO) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup
China Distance Education (DL) assumed with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
FX Energy (FXEN) initiated with a Buy at Roth Capital
LIN Media (LIN) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush
Manulife Financial (MFC) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital
Nexstar (NXST) initiated with a Neutral at Wedbush
Sinclair Broadcast (SBGI) initiated with an Outperform at Wedbush
Sun Life Financial (SLF) initiated with a Sector Perform at RBC Capital
Toronto-Dominion (TD) initiated with an Outperform at RBC Capital

HOT STOCKS

Canadian Pacific (CP) to sell west end of line to Genesee & Wyoming (GWR)
FireEye (FEYE) acquired Mandiant for $106M and 21.5M shares of FireEye stock, raised FY14 revenue guidance to $400M-$410M from $240M-$250M

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
Resources Connection (RECN)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

• Boeing’s (BA) largest union is set to vote today on a contract that will likely shape the power of organized labor at one of the U.S.’s biggest manufacturers for years, the Wall Street Journal reports
• China Mobile (CHL) may have secured a deal with Apple (AAPL) to sell iPhones, but it’s looking like a costly partnership at least in the near term. Brokerages have been swiftly reducing their earnings forecast for the world’s largest carrier by subscribers because of steep capital outlays for a new network and anticipated handset subsidies, the Wall Street Journal reports
• Fiat’s (FIATY) deal to take full control of Chrysler on better-than-expected terms has cemented CEO Sergio Marchionne’s dealmaking reputation, but he might run out of road to channel that drive into operational success for the business, Reuters reports
• Telefonica (TEF) is working on a joint offer to take over TIM Participacoes (TSU) and break up the local wireless unit of Telecom Italia (TI) also known as TIM Brasil, Reuters reports
• Safety rules will probably be tightened on crude oil shipments from North Dakota following a string of railway explosions, threatening to damp an energy boom (CLR, HES, WLL) that has boosted the region’s economy, Bloomberg reports
• The airline industry (DAL, UAL, LUV, JBLU) and one of its prominent allies are gearing up to fight a possible push in  Congress to tax baggage fees and other air-travel charges as a way to generate additional federal revenue, Bloomberg reports

SYNDICATE

Western Gas Equity (WGP) files to sell 40M common units for holder

ACTIVIST/PASSIVE FILINGS

S.A.C. Capital reports 5.6% passive stake in E-House (EJ)

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/GP0hG4ZK96c/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Snow and cold weather… in the Northeast… in January. Surely, such an unprecedented development in the New Normal should predictably justify explaining away at least a 1% miss of Q1 GDP (which when inventory destocking is factored in, will likely come in negative). Still, 20 inches of snow dropping in one night is somewhat abnormal, especially when one adds a blast of cold air to accompany them, and explains why even the area major airport hubs – JFK in New York and Logan in Boston – are all closed currently, while key NYC transportation hubs, I-84 and the LIE, closed at midnight and won’t open until 8 am.

From NBC:

A massive winter storm dumped 20 inches of snow on parts of New England and looked set to cripple much of the Midwest and Northeast on Friday as millions faced dangerously cold temperatures. Sub-zero wind chills have arrived with the storm, and the biting wind and blowing snow have shut down interstates and airports alike.

 

John F. Kennedy Airport in New York is officially closed, and Boston’s Logan International is effectively shutdown, as well.

 

Interstate 84 in New York and the Long Island Expressway, closed at midnight as the storm roared in, will remain so until 8 a.m.

 

Snowfall reports varied widely, with New York City receiving 7 inches, Baltimore some 3 to 6 inches, Philadelphia roughly 5 inches, Hartford 6 to 10 inches and Boston as much as 14 inches.

 

Some 20 inches have already fallen on other parts of Massachusetts, according to The Weather Channel lead meteorologist Michael Palmer. Boxford, Mass., northwest of Boston, reported 21 inches.

 

Winter weather and wind-chill advisories were in effect in at least 22 states, stretching from Chicago through the New York tri-state region into New England and affecting an area home to more than 100 million people.

 

Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy

The soundbites are coming in fast and furious:

“It’s going to be brutal,” Weather Channel coordinating meteorologist Tom Moore said. “People that are vulnerable are really going to be hurting.”

 

The high temperature in New York City will be in the teens on Friday during the day and drop to between 5 and 8 degrees in the evening, with the wind chill making it feel well below zero.

 

“This is nothing to be trifled with,” New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo said. “We have learned too well over the past few years the power of Mother Nature. We have seen the damage that has been done.”

 

Massachusetts Gov. Deval Patrick dismissed all state workers at 3 p.m. on Thursday, and urged residents to minimize time outside and be aware of frostbite and hypothermia symptoms. “That is a very, very dangerous set of circumstances,” he said.

There’s the snow, and then there’s the cold…

Temperatures from upstate New York to Maine were below zero, and wind chills — the “feels like” effect — were minus-30 in some spots. Across the Northeast, residents were fretting about the blast of bitter cold.

 

“I think I’m more concerned about the terrible cold Friday night rather than the storm itself,” David Ball of Scituate, Mass., which was facing coastal flooding, told NBC affiliate WHDH. “Hopefully the power stays on.”

 

The weather was affecting air travel, with some 1,350 flights being cancelled Friday on top of more than 2,000 on Thursday, according to flight tracking website FlightAware.

 

Chicago will struggle to get above minus 8 and by Monday morning the wind will make it feel like it’s 40 below zero there. In Green Bay, Wis., where the Packers host an NFL playoff game Sunday evening, the low temperature could reach minus 18.

 

“Even Atlanta’s northern suburbs could be in single digits by Monday night,” Moore said.

 

Larry Wittmers, a hypothermia expert at the University of Minnesota-Duluth medical school, said it’s not necessarily the coldest areas that face the most peril.

 

“True hypothermia cases turn up more often in more southern regions because people are not prepared and don’t know what to do,” Wittmers said.

… And when adding the two, bad things happen:

And even though record snowfall is not expected, the cold could make
roads even more hazardous because the snow-melting salt that homeowners
and road crews use loses effectiveness at between 10 and 20 degrees.

 

To
give plows time to work and guard against vehicles getting stranded,
New York’s Gov. Andrew Cuomo declared a state of emergency and closed
several major roads, including the Nassau and Suffolk county sections of
the Long Island Expressway from midnight to 5 a.m. New Jersey also
declared a state of emergency.

 

“As this winter storm unfolds,
bringing heavy snow and high winds to many parts of the state, I
strongly urge all New Yorkers to exercise caution, avoid travel and
stay indoors,” Cuomo said.

In other words: one of those truly rare events – a real winter storm. In January. And in other news, just once we would like to see the inclement weather blame the weak economy for a change…

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/ciPA49G8Ldg/story01.htm Tyler Durden

In a day that will be remembered for the first major snowstorm to hit New York in 2014 and test the clean up capabilities and resolve of the city’s new populist mayor (not starting on a good note following reports that JFK airport will be closed at least until 8:30 am Eastern), it was only fitting that there was virtually no overnight news aside for the Chinese non-manufacturing PMI which dropped from 56.0 to 54.6, a new 4 month low. Still, following yesterday’s ugly start to the new year, stocks in Europe traded higher this morning, in part driven by value related flows following the sell-off yesterday. Retailers led the move higher, with Next shares in London up as much as 11% which is the most since January 2009 and to its highest level since 1988 after the company lifted profit forecast after strong Christmas trading performance. Other UK based retailers with likes of AB Foods and M&S also advanced around 2%.

Looking elsewhere, peripheral bonds continued to outperform their core counterparts, with IT/GE 10y spread below 200bps mark for the first time since July 2011 and SP/GE 10y spread below 200bps mark for the first time since May 2011. The recent flow into peripheral bonds said to have driven by domestic accounts, together with international real money accounts putting on new trades for 2014. A combination of a sharp drop in EONIA fixing, together with the release of better than expected UK macroeconomic data meant that GBP/USD outperformed EUR/USD. On that note, analysts have noted that sharp decline in EONIA fixing leaves EUR/USD vulnerable to the downside.

In summary, the Italian and Dutch markets are the best-performing larger bourses, Swiss the worst. The euro is weaker against the dollar. Portuguese 10yr bond yields fall; Spanish yields decline. Commodities little changed, with zinc, nickel underperforming and silver outperforming. New York ISM, U.S. vehicle sales data released later.

Looking at the day ahead, it will likely be a quiet end to the week with little on the data docket to note and inclement weather on the US east coast possibly preventing some market participants from returning to their desks. Today’s European data include Euroarea money supply and Spanish/Italian CPI readings. December auto sales is the main data release in the US. Bernanke, Lacker, Plosser and Stein are scheduled to speak at the American Economic Association annual meeting in Philadelphia although some may not make it due to the weather.

Recap:

• S&P 500 futures down 0% to 1827.3
• Stoxx 600 up 3% to 326.7
• US 10Yr yield down 1bps to 2.98%
• German 10Yr yield down 1bps to 1.94%
• MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.4% to 140.3
• Gold spot up 0.5% to $1231/oz

EUROPE

• 17 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors rise; retail, real estate outperform, insurance, basic resources underperform
• 67.5% of Stoxx 600 members gain, 29.8% decline
• Top Stoxx 600 gainers: Next PLC  +8.6%, Banco Espirito Santo SA  +5.1%, Dixons Retail PLC  +4.9%, Telecom Italia SpA +4.7%, Valiant Holding AG  +4.2%, Marks & Spencer Group PLC +4%, Debenhams PLC  +3.5%, Eutelsat Communications SA +3.5%, Hays PLC  +2.9%, Azimut Holding SpA  +2.9%
• Top Stoxx 600 decliners: International Personal Finance -2.7%, Swiss Re AG -2.7%, DKSH Holding AG -2.3%, Remy Cointreau SA -2.3%, Lonmin PLC -2.2%, Commerzbank AG -1.6%, Rexam PLC -1.3%, Rotork PLC -1.2%, Pearson PLC -1.2%, Coca- Cola HBC AG -1.2%

ASIA

• Asian stocks fall with the Hang Seng underperforming.
• MSCI Asia Pacific down 0.4% to 140.3
• Nikkei 225 closed, Hang Seng down 2.2%, Kospi down 1.1%,  Shanghai Composite down 1.2%, ASX down 0.3%, Sensex down 0.3%
• 2 out of 10 sectors rise with health care, consumer outperforming and energy, tech underperforming
• Gainers: ANTA Sports Products Ltd  +8.7%, Celltrion Inc +6.1%, Chongqing Changan Automobile C  +5.8%, Advanced Info Service PCL  +4.8%, Kasikornbank PCL   +4.7%, Kasikornbank PCL  +3.8%, Ranbaxy Laboratories Ltd  +3.5%, OCI Co Ltd +3.4%, United Spirits Ltd  +3.3%
• Decliners: Thai Oil PCL -6.9%, China Taiping Insurance Holdin -6%, Eclat Textile Co Ltd -5.8%, Banpu PCL -5.4%, Belle International Holdings L -5.1%, Astra Agro Lestari Tbk PT -4.9%, First Pacific Co Ltd/Hong Kong -4.9%, Adaro Energy Tbk PT -4.7%, CITIC Securities Co Ltd -4.7%, E-Mart Co Ltd -4.4%

Overnight headline bulletin fromRanSquawk

• European stocks trade higher following yesterday’s sell-off, with the peripheral markets outperforming as Italian and Spanish spreads continue yesterday’s tightening.
• UK Mortgage Approvals came in at the highest since January 2008, with UK Nationwide House Prices showing the biggest rise since August 2009.
• Going forward, market participants will get to digest the release of the latest EIA Nat Gas Storage report, DoE data and US vehicle sales.

Asian Headlines

Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Dec) M/M 54.6 (Prev. 56.0); 4-month low

South Korean finance minister Hyun stated a need to closely monitor JPY’s movements, adding that they may need to strengthen support measures for smaller companies following the weak JPY and that Japan may face international pressure on currency.

EU & UK Headlines

UK Mortgage Approvals (Nov) M/M 70.8K vs. Exp. 69.7K (Prev. 67.7K, Rev. to 68.0K) – highest since January 2008

– UK November net lending to non-financial businesses at GBP -4.656bln vs October GBP -1.121bln, biggest fall since series began in May 2011.

UK PMI Construction (Dec) M/M 62.1 vs Exp. 62.0 (Prev. 62.6)

UK Nationwide House PX (Dec) M/M 1.4% vs Exp. 0.7% (Prev. 0.6%, Rev. 0.7%) – Biggest rise since August 2009

– Nationwide House PX NSA (Dec) Y/Y 8.4% vs Exp. 7.1% (Prev. 6.5%)

Spanish Unemployment Net (‘000s) (Dec) M/M -107.6 (Prev. -2.5)

Swiss PMI Manufacturing (Dec) M/M 53.9 vs 56.3 (Prev. 56.5)

Analysts at UBS believe that any BoE rate increases may be as small as 5bps. Saying that the withdrawal will be cautious if inflation and wage growth remain subdued, suggests 5bps rate rises to emphasize that any more will be incremental and hesitant.

German government will not increase taxes, according to draft of annual economic report of German government.

No major Tier 1 data from the US data, with focus on the energy markets as today sees the release of the DoE Inventories and EIA Natural Gas Storage Change.

US volumes today may be impeded by adverse weather conditions.

According to the National Weather Service, a combination of storms will impact areas from the southern Appalachians into New England into Friday. Heaviest snow will fall from central New York to the Massachusetts coast. Blizzard conditions are possible for eastern Long Island and the Massachusetts coast. Bitter cold will move into the Midwest and East following the storm.

Equities

Following yesterday’s sell-off in European equities, stocks have managed to trade with gains this morning, with Next in the UK being the notable outperformer. This follows the Co.’s pre-market update, with Q4 sales coming in significantly higher than expected. This news for Next has seen other UK stocks including AB foods and M&S trade higher for the session. Elsewhere, the periphery is leading the way across Europe, with Telecom Italia supporting the FTSE MIB after pre-market reports that Telefonica are to review the feasibility of Telecom Italia Brazil unit breakup next week.

FX

In FX markets overnight, the South Korean Finance Minister said that they need to closely monitor JPY’s movements and that Japan may face international pressure on currency with USD/JPY then running through stops at 104.50 to the downside. Following the release of a better than expected UK PMI Construction, GBP/USD has outperformed EUR/USD, with EUR also under pressure from JPY strength. There is also market talk of real money accounts selling in EUR/GBP.

Analysts at Credit Suisse say that any setbacks in GBP/USD towards 1.6320/00 offers a chance to re-establish long positions as med-term outlook remains bullish

Commodities

Nomura forecasts Brent oil average price at USD 100/bbl in 2014 and forecasts WTI crude average price at USD 90/bbl in 2014.

Iraq starts fixing oil pipeline that was damaged by a bomb yesterday evening. There is no definite date to complete repairs as there was extensive damage according to North Oil.

China’s November copper products output rises 25% on year to 1.5 mil mt.

* * *

Finally, here is the complete overnight recap from DB’s Jim Reid

DM equities had a soft start to 2014 with both the S&P500 (-0.89%) and Stoxx600 (-0.74%) recording their worst opening day performances since 2008. S&P500 volumes were on the low-side, even for a first trading day of the year, and it may drop further today after winter storm Hercules hit the US north east late on Thursday prompting a state of emergency to be declared in New York State and New Jersey. There are reports of flight cancellations, highway closures and reduced transport services in major cities in the north east, while NYC is expected to receive up to 9 inches of snow on Thursday night/Friday morning accompanied by a sharp drop in temperatures.

Coming back to markets, yesterday saw a partial reversal of one of the major themes of 2013, being that of stronger DM equities and subdued fixed income performance. All ten industry sectors in the S&P500 and Stoxx600 closed in the red yesterday, with utilities, financials and resources bearing the brunt of the selloff. On the fixed income side, peripheral European bonds had an impressive day with both Spain and Italian 10 year yields closing below the 4% mark. US treasury yields reached an early high 3.05% before rallying to close at 2.989% (-4bp on the day) – partially reversing some of the losses from the last trading day of 2013. The weaker-than-expected ISM data (more below) helped sentiment in USTs as did the weakness in US equities which opened lower and stayed low for the entire session. The USD had a strong start to the year (USD index +0.65%) while emerging market assets experienced the opposite as worries permeated across Turkey, Thailand and LATAM. The MSCI EM index fell 1.2% for its largest drop in more than a month and the TRY, BRL and MXN all struggled against the USD.

Reviewing the data flow, the latest round of ISM/PMI surveys showed that manufacturing activity ended 2013 on a mixed note. The US manufacturing ISM for December fell 0.3pt from November’s levels to 57.0 but this was still slightly above the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 56.8. DB’s economists noted that this was a similar performance to the Chicago PMI which was released earlier in the week, but they also noted some positives in ISM report including the fact that both the new orders (64.2 vs. 63.6 previous) and employment components (56.9 vs. 56.5 previous) made new multi-year highs.

The ISM data had minimal effect on markets though 10yr yields dropped a couple of basis points following its release. Across the Atlantic, the Euro-area manufacturing PMI for December came out in line with the flash estimate at 52.7 but the surprise was in the strength of the numbers in Spain (50.8 vs 49.8 forecast) and Italy (53.3 vs 51.7 forecast). Meanwhile in the core, the divergence between Germany and France continued to widen (+1.1 to 52.7 for & -1.4 to 47.0 respectively). Outside of the manufacturing data, US initial  jobless claims for the last full week of 2013 dropped -2k to 339k though the week-to-week numbers have been impacted by seasonal factors of late.

Looking at overnight markets, Asian equities are taking the lead of the US and Europe with losses paced by the Hang Seng (-1.9%) and KOSPI (-1.1%). USDJPY remains under some pressure, dropping 0.6% early today while Japanese stock markets remain closed for New Year holidays. All eyes remain on the wobbles in EM and the latest data flow from China hasn’t helped sentiment there either. The official Chinese December services PMI (released overnight) came in at 54.6 which is a four-month low and is 1.4 pts lower than November’s reading. This follows the weaker-than-expected official manufacturing PMI (51.0 vs 51.2 expected) released earlier this week. Thailand’s SET equity index is faring better today (-0.7%) following yesterday’s 5.2% fall which brought the index to an 18-month low. Asian EM credit spreads are about 3-4bp wider in general. Chinese bank funding pressures remain of some concern but the 7-day repo rate has eased around 15bp this morning. Amid the recent worries about debt levels at Chinese local governments, there is talk that a number of local governments may tap onshore Chinese USD funding markets after Shanghai Chengtou Corp issued the first onshore USD-denominated bond by a local-government financing vehicle in China as yuan borrowing costs surge (Bloomberg).

Returning to DM, 2013 will be partly remembered for being a robust year for M&A, leveraged financings and IPOs particularly in North America – and there are signs that 2014 will be another healthy year for corporate activity. The buyouts of Verizon Wireless, Heinz and Dell were amongst the standout buyout deals of 2013, and the first out of the gates this year is auto-maker Fiat who announced on New Year’s Day a $4.4bn deal to acquire the remaining 41% portion of Chrysler. The fully-merged Fiat-Chrysler group is aiming to list in New York within the year according to the Financial Times. Speaking of buyouts, it will be also interesting to track the LBO pipeline with the  improving optimism in that market evident in the latest buyout stats from Reuters that show that the median EBITDA multiple in US LBOs jumped to 9.8x in 2013 from 8.3x in 2012, citing data from market research firm Preqin. Thomson Reuters also notes that the US leveraged bank lending posted a record $510bn in volumes in 2013 (up 55% over 2012) and the average LBO debt levels crept up to 6.2x in 2013. So valuations and leverage levels crept upwards in 2013, supported by accommodative debt and equity funding markets – whether this can be sustained in 2014 is the big question. On a related note, following a gain of more than 30% in 2013, the S&P500 is predicted to gain around 5.5% in 2014 according to the average of 20 analyst estimates compiled by Bloomberg. That outlook is the lowest forecast since 31 Dec 2004.

Looking at the day ahead, it will likely be a quiet end to the week with little on the data docket to note and inclement weather on the US east coast possibly preventing some market participants from returning to their desks. Today’s European data include Euroarea money supply and Spanish/Italian CPI readings. December auto sales is the main data release in the US. Bernanke, Lacker, Plosser and Stein are scheduled to speak at the American Economic Association annual meeting in Philadelphia.

via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/O22DFsvcAPs/story01.htm Tyler Durden