Stocks Have Worst Start To Year Since 2008

Despite the best efforts of 330RAMP CAPITAL, US equity indices ended the first trading day of the year with the biggest loss (on that day) since 2008. Led by weakness in the high-beta indices as Trannies tumbled their most in 4 months and the S&P's biggest daily downswing in over 3 weeks. On a side-note, gas prices have never been this high on the first day of the year. VIX closed higher once again as stocks began to catch down to it's recent warnings. Bonds rallied from the open this morning (with 10Y 6bps lower in yield from its opening print) with 10Y back under 3%. EUR weakness drove the USD higher (but JPY strength weighed on stocks). The biggest moves appeared in commodities with gold and silver up nicely and WTI crude down hard… on, and TWTR was up over 6%!

 

 

Gas prices have never been higher on the first day of the year…

 

Stocks were spanked from the panic-buying highs of New Year's Eve…Notably, the major selling pressure ended when Europe closed. Did we really see a rotation from US equities into European bonds?

 

So buy TWTR you idiot!!!

 

VIX pushed higher still and stocks began to catch down…

 

Despite Treasury strength, Utilities are actually the worst performer off the highs of New Year's Eve…

 

Which, perhaps most interestingly, means Utilities are now unchanged from the Taper…

 

Treasuries rallied from the get-go…

 

But commodities were the most actuve space today with Gold and silver surging and oil plunging… Gold's best day in 10 weeks; oil's worst day in 13 months

 

 

and FX markets have had quite a week but it seems the EUR repatriation filled its year-end liquidity needs and is now unwinding (on European bond's best day in over a year!!)

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Since 2000, there has now been 7 years with a negative first day. Of the previous 6, half ended the year with losses (-10.3%, -13%, and -38.5%)… will 2014 be any different? (h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer)


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/YX7zOaymFYU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

New York Declares State Of Emergency Ahead Of Nor'easter Snowstorm

A day after the new NYC mayor was sworn in, it looks like he will be busy digging his brand new city from under “blizzardlike” conditions including 5-6 inches of snow, which it seems are enough for New York governor Andrew Cuomo to declare…

The road closures are already known:

Finally, some details on what to expect:

Authorities are prepping hundreds of plows and tons of salt, shutting down highways and making contingency plans for mass transportation as a powerful nor’easter that is expected to dump up to 10 inches of snow on parts of the tri-state area and bring caustic 25-mph winds bears down on the East Coast.

 

A blizzard warning is in effect for Long Island, and winter storm warnings are in effect for most of the tri-state through Friday morning and hundreds of flights at the region’s three primary airports were canceled by mid-afternoon Thursday. A winter storm watch is in effect for central New Jersey and points south.

 

Flurries began falling late Wednesday into Thursday, leaving a light dusting of snow on roads and walkways for the first commute of the new year. Forecasters say snowfall will become heavier and steadier Thursday evening into Friday, accompanied by plunging temperatures and whipping winds that will make it feel like 10 degrees below zero in some spots overnight.

 

Gov. Cuomo has already announced the Long Island Expressway will be shut down at midnight within Nassau and Suffolk. The Queens section of the L.I.E. will remain open. Route 87 south of Albany will also be closed, and all of Route 84 will be shut down.

 

The roads will be reopened at 5 a.m., if conditions allow.

 

In New York City, 6 to 8 inches of fluffy snow are expected by Friday morning, and 8 to 10 inches of snow are possible north and west of the city and Long Island. Three to 6 inches are expected to fall in central and southern New Jersey.

 

The snowfall will combine with winds gusting up to 35 miles per hour to create possible white-out conditions, severely hampering visibility late Thursday into Friday, particularly in areas expected to see more accumulation. Drivers are urged to stay off the roads after Thursday afternoon.

 

The winds will cause the snow to drift onto roads, and the frigid temperatures will prevent any melting, which could make for dangerously slick roads for Friday’s morning commute.

 

Mass transit is a “prudent option, given that highways may be closed,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in a conference call with reporters Wednesday.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/uQnnYTqo8NA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

New York Declares State Of Emergency Ahead Of Nor’easter Snowstorm

A day after the new NYC mayor was sworn in, it looks like he will be busy digging his brand new city from under “blizzardlike” conditions including 5-6 inches of snow, which it seems are enough for New York governor Andrew Cuomo to declare…

The road closures are already known:

Finally, some details on what to expect:

Authorities are prepping hundreds of plows and tons of salt, shutting down highways and making contingency plans for mass transportation as a powerful nor’easter that is expected to dump up to 10 inches of snow on parts of the tri-state area and bring caustic 25-mph winds bears down on the East Coast.

 

A blizzard warning is in effect for Long Island, and winter storm warnings are in effect for most of the tri-state through Friday morning and hundreds of flights at the region’s three primary airports were canceled by mid-afternoon Thursday. A winter storm watch is in effect for central New Jersey and points south.

 

Flurries began falling late Wednesday into Thursday, leaving a light dusting of snow on roads and walkways for the first commute of the new year. Forecasters say snowfall will become heavier and steadier Thursday evening into Friday, accompanied by plunging temperatures and whipping winds that will make it feel like 10 degrees below zero in some spots overnight.

 

Gov. Cuomo has already announced the Long Island Expressway will be shut down at midnight within Nassau and Suffolk. The Queens section of the L.I.E. will remain open. Route 87 south of Albany will also be closed, and all of Route 84 will be shut down.

 

The roads will be reopened at 5 a.m., if conditions allow.

 

In New York City, 6 to 8 inches of fluffy snow are expected by Friday morning, and 8 to 10 inches of snow are possible north and west of the city and Long Island. Three to 6 inches are expected to fall in central and southern New Jersey.

 

The snowfall will combine with winds gusting up to 35 miles per hour to create possible white-out conditions, severely hampering visibility late Thursday into Friday, particularly in areas expected to see more accumulation. Drivers are urged to stay off the roads after Thursday afternoon.

 

The winds will cause the snow to drift onto roads, and the frigid temperatures will prevent any melting, which could make for dangerously slick roads for Friday’s morning commute.

 

Mass transit is a “prudent option, given that highways may be closed,” Gov. Andrew Cuomo said in a conference call with reporters Wednesday.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/uQnnYTqo8NA/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Trading The Technicals: Bond Bears Beware Of "Defensive Posture"

The combination of impulsive gains and corrective weakness from the late October lows at 78.99, repeated failure to hold a break of 79.95/79.82 area support and now bullish seasonals (January is the strongest month of the year for the US $ Index) all tell BofAML's Macneil Curry that the US Dollar Index is headed higher. While he remains a long-term Treasury bear, Curry warns bond bears to take a wait-and-see approach and fears a "defensive posture" may correct bond yields and stock prices lower.

 

Via BofAML,

Bullish US $ Index as 2014 starts.

We remain US $ Index bulls.

The combination of impulsive gains and corrective weakness from the late October lows at 78.99, repeated failure to hold a break of 79.95/79.82 area support and now bullish seasonals (January is the strongest month of the year for the US $ Index) all say the US $ Index is headed higher.

A closing break of 80.66/080.83 confirms (100d and Dec-20 high), opening the Nov highs at 81.48, ahead of 82.67 and beyond. Further supportive of a higher US $ would be a £/$ close below 1.6474 (Dec-31 low), which would result in a Bearish Engulfing Candle, and a €/$ close below the Dec-20 low of 1.3625, which would complete an irregular Double Top formation.

US Treasury yields trying to break out, but watch the S&P500

We have been and remain long-term US Treasury bears, with 10yr yields targeting 3.17%/3.30% and, eventually, 3.45%/3.50%. HOWEVER, right here, with 10yr yields struggling to maintain the break of 3.00%/3.012% support (61.8% of the Apr’10/Jul’12 decline and early Sept. highs), we are NEUTRAL, taking a wait-and-see approach. Indeed, the risk for a near-term and, potentially, medium-term yield top and turn lower is quite high. Watch 2.970%/2.965% resistance AND ESH4 support at 1833.50/1824.50. Through these levels would say that 10yr yields have formed a near-term top and bullish turn in trend, as investors adopt a more defensive posture and ESH4 enters into a near-term correction within the larger bull trend.

Bigger picture, ESH4 bears need a break of 1768.25/1754 to gain control.

Gold weakness to continue

Despite the rally in the US $, gold has proven to be very resilient. However, stay bearish against 1251/1270. Against here, the downtrend remains on firm footing for a test and break of the Jun lows at 1180, opening LONG-TERM PIVOTAL SUPPORT BETWEEN 1127/1087
 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/n4uSKhyShVI/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Trading The Technicals: Bond Bears Beware Of “Defensive Posture”

The combination of impulsive gains and corrective weakness from the late October lows at 78.99, repeated failure to hold a break of 79.95/79.82 area support and now bullish seasonals (January is the strongest month of the year for the US $ Index) all tell BofAML's Macneil Curry that the US Dollar Index is headed higher. While he remains a long-term Treasury bear, Curry warns bond bears to take a wait-and-see approach and fears a "defensive posture" may correct bond yields and stock prices lower.

 

Via BofAML,

Bullish US $ Index as 2014 starts.

We remain US $ Index bulls.

The combination of impulsive gains and corrective weakness from the late October lows at 78.99, repeated failure to hold a break of 79.95/79.82 area support and now bullish seasonals (January is the strongest month of the year for the US $ Index) all say the US $ Index is headed higher.

A closing break of 80.66/080.83 confirms (100d and Dec-20 high), opening the Nov highs at 81.48, ahead of 82.67 and beyond. Further supportive of a higher US $ would be a £/$ close below 1.6474 (Dec-31 low), which would result in a Bearish Engulfing Candle, and a €/$ close below the Dec-20 low of 1.3625, which would complete an irregular Double Top formation.

US Treasury yields trying to break out, but watch the S&P500

We have been and remain long-term US Treasury bears, with 10yr yields targeting 3.17%/3.30% and, eventually, 3.45%/3.50%. HOWEVER, right here, with 10yr yields struggling to maintain the break of 3.00%/3.012% support (61.8% of the Apr’10/Jul’12 decline and early Sept. highs), we are NEUTRAL, taking a wait-and-see approach. Indeed, the risk for a near-term and, potentially, medium-term yield top and turn lower is quite high. Watch 2.970%/2.965% resistance AND ESH4 support at 1833.50/1824.50. Through these levels would say that 10yr yields have formed a near-term top and bullish turn in trend, as investors adopt a more defensive posture and ESH4 enters into a near-term correction within the larger bull trend.

Bigger picture, ESH4 bears need a break of 1768.25/1754 to gain control.

Gold weakness to continue

Despite the rally in the US $, gold has proven to be very resilient. However, stay bearish against 1251/1270. Against here, the downtrend remains on firm footing for a test and break of the Jun lows at 1180, opening LONG-TERM PIVOTAL SUPPORT BETWEEN 1127/1087
 


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/n4uSKhyShVI/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Four Key Lessons From 2013

Submitted by Simon Black of Sovereign Man blog,

1) Politicians believe there are no consequences for destroying our liberty…

Stimulus and response. That’s the easiest way of summing this up. When politicians steal, and there are no consequences, they’re going to keep stealing.

Cyprus proved this point handily. The government froze bank accounts for everyone in the country (of course, the big bosses got their money out in time). And yet, there was no violent revolution in the streets. People just accepted it.

Poland nationalized pensions. Argentina imposed severe capital controls. The French are taxing everything under the sun. The US government was caught red-handed spying on… everyone.

And yet, there have been ZERO consequences. Citizens have been trained like caged animals to simply roll over and acquiesce. I imagine the politicians are thinking, “Holy Cow! I can’t believe we just got away with that…”

It only reinforces their behavior. With each destructive act, they become more bold, more brazen in dismantling our liberties, confident that they can continue to act with total impunity.

2) …Central bankers and economists believe there are no consequences to printing money…

The Fed expanded its balance sheet by $1.1 TRILLION in 2013, a whopping 38.5%. Nobody seems to mind. The stock market surged to all-time highs, the bond market remained stable, and everyone pronounced the ‘recovery’ was in.

I attended a dinner a few months ago where Ben Bernanke himself touted how much his quantitative had helped US economic conditions.

They really believe in what they are doing. They really believe that conjuring endless quantities of money out of thin air is the path to prosperity.

Not to mention, our modern society awards its most esteemed prizes for intellectual achievement to the likes of idiot savants like Paul Krugman who tell us that the Fed should be printing even MORE money. And people listen to him.

So we can only expect Ben “I can raise interest rates in 15 minutes” Bernanke, and his heir apparent Janet Yellen, to give us more of the same.

3) …Investors think there are no consequences to deficits, or debasement…

In 2013, headlines like “the US deficit is -only- $700 billion” were actually considered good news.

And markets have given all of these fiascos a pass– from the government shutdown to record-shattering debt levels to downgrades by the rating agencies. AA became the new AAA in 2013.

Nobody cares that the US government ‘borrowed’ a record amount of money from the Social Security Trust Fund. Or that they spent a record amount just to pay interest on the debt at a time when interest rates are at all-time lows.

Rather, they just keep investing… without a single thought to the possible risks. The fear of missing the big boom is greater than the fear of losing money. But then again, it’s not their money at risk. It’s yours.

4) …But Joe Six-Pack knows this is all crap.

In 2013, the collective net worth of the 300 richest people in the world grew to $3.7 trillion, 16.5% higher than 2012. Corporate profits were also at record levels.

Fortune 500s, the super-rich, rich, and even upper middle class have largely been beneficiaries of the central bank induced asset bubble.

But everyone else is getting hammered by inflation… watching their savings and livelihoods melt away before their very eyes.

A report from the US Census Bureau this year showed that median household income has declined for five straight years. And those living in poverty, using food stamps, or receiving unemployment benefits remained at record high levels in 2013.

Meanwhile, the wealth gap has grown to its largest since 1929– the year of that fateful financial collapse.

It’s time for a reality check: something is wrong with this picture.

We’ve become desensitized to everything. “Unprecedented” monetary policy. Record debts. Massive wealth gap. Government surveillance. Theft. Deceit. Inflation.

We’ve become so accustomed to getting screwed, it’s just par for the course now. We sit quietly and wait for the next round of beatings, shrugging it all off as the new normal.

This isn’t normal. This is not how a free society is supposed to function.

A free society does not spy on its own people, threaten them with drone assassination, and award an unelected banking elite with supreme authority to rob purchasing power from the masses in favor of a bubbly stock market.

And despite the conventional wisdom, this is not a consequence-free environment.

History is full of examples of entire nations that reached their breaking points… shouting from the rooftops “I’m mad as hell! And I’m not going to take it anymore!”

2013 already saw violent unrest in some of the most stable countries in the world like Singapore and Sweden, all underpinned by absolute disgust for the status quo.

Whether today or tomorrow, this year or next, there will be a reckoning. The system is far too broken to repair, it must be reset.

It’s simply absurd to look at the situation objectively and presume this status quo can continue indefinitely… that this time is different… that we’re somehow special and immune to universal principles.

This is not some prediction for doom and gloom. Far from it.

It’s actually a message of optimism. For the sooner these crackpot criminal politicians and their central banking ilk are stricken from power, the better off we’ll all be.

Unfortunately there’s going to be quite a bit of turmoil to get there.

Here’s to 2014. It’s going to be a hell of a year.


    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/erDeneWrADU/story01.htm Tyler Durden

Americans, Again, Say Government Is Shockingly Incompetent

Capitol buildingSurprisingly, in the year of
Obamacare, NSA snooping, and skyrocketing federal debt, Americans
express little confidence in government and consider it largely
incapable of addressing the problems and issues facing the country.
OK, that’s not surprising at all—actually, it’s a predictable
result of polling in a year when goverment officials seem to have
set out to demonstrate just how untrustworthy and incompetent they
can be when given half a chance. Other recent polls have found that
Americans consider government to be both burdensome and dangerous,
so these latest AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research numbers
continue a trend in disillusioned, yet realistic, assessments of
the coercive institutions of the state.

According to
The People’s Agenda: America’s Priorities and Outlook for
2014
, 70 percent of respondents have little or no
confidence “in the ability of the FEDERAL government to make
progress on the important problems and issues facing the country.”
Fifty-three percent express similarly low esteem in the abilities
of state governments, though local government inspires moderate
confidence.

What those important issues are ranges far and wide, though
Obamacare, unemployment, the economy, and government spending all
raise concern. So do immigration and education, though at lesser
levels. But, when asked, issue by issue, about government’s
competence to get things right, Americans give an almost unbroken
string of thumbs-down.

Not surprisingly, an overwhelming majority of those polled say
the democratic system in this country needs changes.

What kind of changes? With all of that skepticism toward
government ability to “fix” things, it’s no surprise that people
express a taste—although slight—for less government in their lives.
Interestingly, poll respondents also have a preference for “strong
government” over the free market. Quite possibly, given the
skepticism toward government expressed throughout the poll, this
split decision represents the difference between what many
Americans wish they could have (if government wasn’t an
incompetent mess run by creeps and dipshits) and the reality of
what they’re getting.

Less government

Last month, a record 72 percent of respondents (and rising) to a
Gallup poll said
big government would be the biggest threat
to the country in
the future. A majority (54 percent) of Americans polled by
Reason-Rupe say
government is generally burdensome and impedes them more than it
helps them
.

Whatever Americans might want of the state in an ideal
world, they’re not impressed by what it can actually deliver.
Actually, they’re horrified.

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2014/01/02/americans-again-say-government-is-shocki
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Even After Website Improvements, Obamacare’s Exchanges Get Poor Marks From Uninsured

You can make Obamacare’s exchange
technology usable. But that doesn’t mean that the uninsured will
suddenly decide they like it.

There’s little question that Obamacare has fewer tech woes now
than when its online health insurance exchange system launched in
October. Anything approaching functionality, however, would have
been a meaningful improvement. During the first month, the federal
exchange covering 36 states was practically unusable for most
people. And the second month wasn’t a whole lot better.

The most noticeable operational improvement came at the
beginning of December. Capacity improved significantly, error rates
dropped, and lots of users finally found that they could get
through the gauntlet: The vast majority of the insurance sign-ups
that have been reported in the federal exchange system took place
during that third month.

What didn’t improve by much, however, was the perception of the
user experience amongst the uninsured.
Daily tracking polls by Gallup found that
, overall, 63 percent
of the uninsured who visited an exchange site reported a negative
experience using Obamacare’s exchanges in October and November,
when the online technology was at its worst.

Yet even after the December technology upgrades, a clear
majority of the same group continued to give the site poor marks.
According to the same daily tracking poll, 59 percent of the
uninsured reported a negative or very negative experience using the
exchanges. Indeed, the share of uninsured individuals who reported
a “very negative” experience stayed the same at 29 percent; the
percentage who said their experience was negative dropped from 34
in October and November to 30 percent in December.

File this under More Reasons Obamacare Won’t Be Popular Any Time
Soon. Yes, many more people are now signing up for coverage under
the law, but its design, even the part that’s supposed to be simple
and user-friendly, remains irksome, even to the uninsured—the
people the law is supposedly designed to benefit the
most. 

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2014/01/02/even-after-website-improvements-obamacar
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The New York Times and The Guardian Call For Snowden To Be Offered Clemency

Last night,
The Guardian
, which has been reporting on the
information leaked by Edward Snowden, published an editorial
calling for the NSA whistle-blower to be granted a pardon by the
Obama administration:

Mr Snowden gave classified information to journalists, even
though he knew the likely consequences. That was an act of some
moral courage. Presidents – from Franklin Roosevelt to Ronald
Reagan – have issued pardons. The debate that Mr Snowden has
facilitated will no doubt be argued over in the US supreme court.
If those justices agree with Mr Obama’s own review panel and Judge
Richard Leon in finding that Mr Snowden did, indeed, raise serious
matters of public importance which were previously hidden (or,
worse, dishonestly concealed), is it then conceivable that he could
be treated as a traitor or common felon? We hope that calm heads
within the present administration are working on a strategy to
allow Mr Snowden to return to the US with dignity, and the
president to use his executive powers to treat him humanely and in
a manner that would be a shining example about the value of
whistleblowers and of free speech itself.

The Guardian editorial highlights how aggressively the
Obama administration (supposedly
the most
transparent
in history
) has been in prosecuting whistle-blowers:

Mr Obama has shown little patience for whistleblowers: his
administration has used the Espionage Act against leakers of
classified information far more than any of his predecessors.

On the same day the Guardian editorial was
published The
New York Times
also published an editorial relating to
Snowden, calling for him to be either granted a plea bargain “or
some form of clemency” while highlighting the value of the
information he leaked:

Considering the enormous value of the information he has
revealed, and the abuses he has exposed, Mr. Snowden deserves
better than a life of permanent exile, fear and flight. He may have
committed a crime to do so, but he has done his country a great
service. It is time for the United States to offer Mr. Snowden a
plea bargain or some form of clemency that would allow him to
return home, face at least substantially reduced punishment in
light of his role as a whistle-blower, and have the hope of a life
advocating for greater privacy and far stronger oversight of the
runaway intelligence community.

The Times editorial also makes the important point
oftentimes overlooked or ignored by those who support the American
intelligence agencies’ behavior:

The shrill brigade of his critics say Mr. Snowden has done
profound damage to intelligence operations of the United States,
but none has presented the slightest proof that his disclosures
really hurt the nation’s security. Many of the mass-collection
programs Mr. Snowden exposed would work just as well if they were
reduced in scope and brought under strict outside oversight, as the
presidential panel recommended.

It’s unlikely that the Obama administration will be offering
Snowden a pardon or a plea bargain any time soon. Last month,
National Security Adviser
Susan Rice
rejected calls for Snowden to be granted amnesty,
saying that “We don’t think that Snowden deserves amnesty. We
believe he should come back.”

More from Reason.com on Snowden here.


from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2014/01/02/the-new-york-times-and-the-guardian-call
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Crude's Worst Day In 13 Months Sends Trannies Tumbling

WTI crude is back below $95.50 – its lowest in a month – as the price of the front-month has dropped over 3% today – its biggest single-day drop since November 2012. USD strength (+0.3%) is being ignored for now by gold and silver which are jumping handily (back over $1230 and $20 respectively). US equities are suffering for the first day of the year for the first time since 2008 (which ended -38.5%) led by Russell 2000 and the Dow Transports – which is seeing its worst day in 4 months.

 

Oil is having a bad day – and its not a WTI-Brent issue as the spread is stable…

 

and the Trannies are tumbling…

 

Along with all the other major indices… from Friday’s panic-buying highs

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Thursday Humor Bonus Chart: We can only assume that Bloomberg did not get the memo on the 100-to-1 reverse split rescaling of Venzuela’s stock index… or it really is -99.9%…



    



via Zero Hedge http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/zerohedge/feed/~3/rN4pCt86cho/story01.htm Tyler Durden