Month: March 2014

Perhaps it is time to finally admit that anyone who thought Putin’s Tuesday press conference, which the market so jubilantly assumed was a case of “blinking” and de-escalating tensions with the west, was wrong. If there is still any confusion, following yesterday’s news that Gazprom officially threatened Ukraine with cutting off its gas supplies, as well as the storming of a Ukraine base by Russian troops – luckily with no shots fired so far – then today’s developments should any remaining doubts. Moments ago AP reported that as the latest, third in a row, group of OSCE inspectors tried to enter Ukraine, they were not only barred from doing so, but warnings shots were fired to emphasize the point by pro-Russian forces.

From AP:

An Associated Press reporter says pro-Russian forces refused to let a foreign military mission enter Crimea on Saturday.

 

After the officers had stopped, the armed men fired warning bursts of automatic weapons fire into the air to make other unidentified vehicles halt. No injuries were reported.

 

The multinational group of military officers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe was attempting to enter the embattled peninsula from the north. The armed men told them they had no authorization to enter Crimea.

 

The OSCE mission will likely return to the Ukrainian city of Kherson where it had spent the night, the AP reporter said.

 

Russia and Ukraine are locked in a tense standoff over Crimea.

Bloomberg adds:

OSCE tried to enter Crimea for third day, warning shots were fired as it attempted to do so today, Tatyana Baeva, OSCE spokeswoman, said by phone from Vienna.

 

Nobody injured in incident, OSCE mission is now back in Kherson, southern Ukraine.

 

OSCE 29 member states that provided people for Crimea mission may meet today or tomorrow in Vienna to discuss further action: Baeva

Then there was this overnight escalation as reported by Ukraine’s TV5 station (of questionably credibility), via Bloomberg:

Pro-Russian armed men today captured building in Simferopol, capital city of Crimea, TV5 private news channel reports, citing Vladislav Selezniov, spokesman for Ukraine’s defense minister in Crimea.

 

Russian soldiers seized Ukraine’s state border guard division in Shcholkino near Kerch Strait, Ukraine’s border service says in statement on its website

 

Russian soldiers stormed Shcholkino unit last night, seized weapons storage, beat Ukrainian border guards, took away their mobile phones and forced them and their families to leave

 

Currently, 11 border guard units are being blocked: Ukraine border service says in separate statement

 

Ukraine denied entrance to 513 “extremists” from Russia during last 24 hrs, state border guard service says in another separate statement on its website

Remember, all it takes is for one stray bullet to hit a human target, on either side of the conflict, for the market to grasp just how wrong its assessment of de-escalation has been.

Elsewhere, while inspectors were trying to make their way into Ukraine – unsuccessfully – Russia announced it was considering a further freeze of U.S. military inspections under arms control treaties in retaliation to Washington’s decision to halt military cooperation with Russia, news reports said Saturday.

Interfax blasted earlier:

• UNJUSTIFIED U.S., NATO THREATS SEEN AS UNFRIENDLY GESTURE, ALLOW TO DECLARE FORCE-MAJEURE – RUSSIAN DEFENSE SOURCE
• RUSSIAN DEFENSE MINISTRY CONSIDERING SUSPENSION OF RECEIVING INSPECTION GROUPS UNDER START TREATY, VIENNA DOCUMENT 2011 – SOURCE

AP has more:

Russian news agencies carried a statement by an unidentified Defense Ministry official saying that Moscow sees the U.S. move as a reason to suspend U.S. inspections in Russia in line with the 2010 New START treaty on cutting U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals and the 2011 Vienna agreement that envisages mutual inspections of Russian and NATO military facilities as part of confidence-building measures.

A Defense Ministry spokesman wouldn’t comment on the reports, which are a usual way in Russia to carry unofficial government signals.

The U.S. and the European Union have introduced sanctions over Russia in response to its move to send troops that have taken control of Ukraine’s Black Sea peninsula of Crimea.

So if the START treaty is suspended how long until its anti-proliferation clauses are scrapped completely once more, and the Cold War arms race returns once again.

Also, while escalations such as these threaten to transform the new Cold War into a hot one, the clock is ticking, and in favor of Russia, because the longer Ukraine remains without western aid, the quicker its foreign reserves will run out, and the faster the country will become a vassal state of Gazpromia. Add the ticking countdown to the March 16 Crimean referendum, which the west and Ukraine have both declared illegitimate yet have no power to stop, and suddenly one can see how Putin once again outsmarted everything the west had to throw at it. WSJ explains:

Gazprom’s demand raises the prospect that some of the aid Western powers have guaranteed could end up flowing into Moscow’s coffers to pay Ukraine’s gas bill. Virtually all of the country’s natural-gas imports come from Russia. Late last year it was granted a discount that Moscow has threatened to rescind since the fall of Mr. Yanukovych.

 

“This now becomes an EU/U.S. problem: Who is going to lend Ukraine the money to pay the gas bill? If so, what will be the conditions?” said Jonathan Stern, an analyst at the Oxford Energy Institute.

 

A spokesman for Gazprom said that the threatened cutoff wouldn’t affect supplies to Europe, which gets about a third of its gas from Russia, much of it via pipelines that run through Ukraine.

 

 

In 2009, after the Russian energy giant switched off the supply to Ukraine, Ukrainian authorities began using the supply transiting their territory that Gazprom said was destined for customers in Europe. Gazprom then cut off the flow altogether, causing shortages and price increases for end customers.

 

“The EU, U.S. and IMF have just about three weeks to resolve this,” Mr. Stern said.

At which point it’s game, set match Putin once more.

Finally, what certainly helped Russia is that, as expected, China took the side of Putin, not of the “free world”, in what is now a very distinct and clear axis of power the New Normal dipolar world.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ed8AQw Tyler Durden

The euro and Swiss franc rose to new highs since Q4 2011, while sterling moved to within half a cent of the best level since 2009 set in mid-February in recent days.  The market was all rife with speculation of a break out.  However, our reading of the technical and fundamental condition, suggests dollar bears tread carefully.

 

If the past week was about the lack of escalation in both Russia/Ukraine and China, coupled with the ECB holding pat, next week may see the pendulum swing back a bit. This could lend itself to a more consolidative trading, which in the current context, may be somewhat supportive of the greenback.  

 

With a referendum planned in Crimea next weekend that will likely lead Russia’s annexation, the confrontation may escalate again.  Although the yuan strengthened in the past week, we suspect that uncertainty spurred by the first on-shore default and the apparent official desire to inject more volatility may weigh on the yuan..  China unexpectedly reported a large trade deficit in February, and although it was the distorted by the lunar new year, some will see evidence that the yuan is now over-valued.  The ECB did not change policy, but the large pay down of LTRO borrowings, and the strength of the euro, may spur speculation that the door to easing has not closed.  Moreover, official efforts to jawbone the euro lower may also increase. 

 

Euro:  The rally in the second half of last week, left the euro stretched.  This is illustrated by the fact that it spent the pre-weekend session above the top of its Bollinger Band (two standard deviations about the 20-day moving average).     That last time it did anything close to this was in mid-September last year.     In addition, its proximity to the psychological and technically significant $1.40 area may change the risk-reward calculations for many participants.   This is not to say that a deep pullback is necessary, but we can see a move back into the $1.3780-$1.3825 band. 

 

Sterling:  Short-term market positioning, judging from the Commitment of Traders remains extreme for sterling.  This might help explain the market’s cautiousness as sterling approached $1.68.  There is a mild bearish divergence that is evident on the daily RSI.    Support is seen $1.6640-60.   Separately, we note that the euro’s downtrend against sterling from last August high near GBP0.8770 has been approached.  We draw it coming in on Monday, March 10 near GBP0.8310, which is near the top of the Bollinger Band,  and GBP0.8298 by the end of the week.  While a convincing break has to be respected, we are bit wary.  

 

Yen:  The dollar is over-stretched against the yen.  At its high, the dollar was nearly 3 standard deviations away from its 20-day moving average (~JPY103.55).  The top of the Bollinger Band comes in near JPY103.10.     By this measure, the dollar is the most stretched against the yen as it has been in years, including the earlier run-up in anticipation of Abenomics beginning in late-2012.     We had suggested dollar potential into the JPY103.10-65 band, and now that it has reached it, we suspect a consoldative phase is near, especially if we are correct about the larger investment climate.  Initial support for the dollar is pegged near JPY102.80-JPY103.10 now, with additional support near JPY102.50.  

 

Canadian dollar:   The optics of Canada’s jobs data were worse than the details, but the Bank of Canada is now the most dovish within the dollar-bloc.  The US dollar tested important technical resistance near CAD1.11 before the weekend.  This corresponds to a retracement objective and a trend line off the Feb 21 high near CAD1.12.   Our reading of the technical indicators warn that the dollar will likely rise through the CAD1.11 area and test CAD1.12 in the days ahead.  

 

Australian dollar:     With the help of spectacular first tier data, especially robust retail sales and trade surplus, the Australian dollar was the strongest currency last week gaining about 1.75% against the US dollar.  It closed on March 6 above the top of its Bollinger Band, for the first time since mid-January and moved back barely within in before the weekend.  The close was near its lows after new four month highs were recorded.   The close below $0.9080, which corresponds to both the 100-day moving average and the minimum retracement objective of the Aussie’s slide since last October, warns of additional near-term losses. There is potential from a technical point of view back into the $0.9015-40 range.    On the upside, the $0.9200 is an important psychological level and coincides with the 50% retracement objective of the slide.  

 

Mexican peso:   The peso participated in the move against the dollar at the end of last week.  After breaking  below the lower end of the trading range since mid-January around MXN13.20, the greenback found support near MXN13.11.   Technically, we see the risk that the break is not sustained and the greenback moves back into the MXN13.20-MXN13.40 trading range and possibly toward the middle to upper end again.  On March 6, the US dollar closed below the bottom of the Bollinger band for the first time since last September.  It moved back into the band before the weekend.  The 20-day moving average, the middle of the Bollinger Band comes in near MXN13.26 and that seems to be the immediate risk. 

 

Observations from the speculative positioning in the CME currency futures:  

 

1.  Position adjustments remained minor.  In the previous reporting period there were no gross position changes of more than 10k contracts.  In the most recent reporting period there was one:   the gross long euro position rose 10.9k contracts to 103.9k.  This is the largest gross long position since last November.    There were no other gross position adjustment that exceeded 6k contracts. 

 

2.  Among the small adjustments, the general pattern was to add to gross short currency positions.  They were only reduced in sterling (-4.3k contracts to 41.4k) and peso (-2.6k to 29k contracts). In both of these currencies, exposure was reduced as both the longs and shorts were pared.  

 

3.   Outside of the euro, which as we have noted saw a large rise in the gross longs, the gross longs of the other six currencies we review were evenly split between buying and selling.  

 

4.  The gross long euro and sterling positions dominate the speculative currency future long positions (103.9k and  71.0k respectively).  None of the other currencies’ gross long position is more than 24k.   The 12.2k gross long Australian dollar futures position and the 6.2k peso futures position seems particularly small.  It may be begging for a contrarian stance, but as we note above the technical outlook suggest this is not the time.  

 

5.  The gross short positions are less concentrated.  The yen, of course, is the leader with 100.1k gross short futures contracts, but the euro’s 80.4k and Canadian dollar’s 84.4k contracts are also substantial.  They are followed by the Aussie (53.4k contracts) and sterling’s gross short 41.4k contracts).  The lower level of gross short peso (29.0k contracts) and franc (19.7k contracts), in part simply reflects the lack of participation presently.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1n58sfn Marc To Market

The euro and Swiss franc rose to new highs since Q4 2011, while sterling moved to within half a cent of the best level since 2009 set in mid-February in recent days.  The market was all rife with speculation of a break out.  However, our reading of the technical and fundamental condition, suggests dollar bears tread carefully.

 

If the past week was about the lack of escalation in both Russia/Ukraine and China, coupled with the ECB holding pat, next week may see the pendulum swing back a bit. This could lend itself to a more consolidative trading, which in the current context, may be somewhat supportive of the greenback.  

 

With a referendum planned in Crimea next weekend that will likely lead Russia’s annexation, the confrontation may escalate again.  Although the yuan strengthened in the past week, we suspect that uncertainty spurred by the first on-shore default and the apparent official desire to inject more volatility may weigh on the yuan..  China unexpectedly reported a large trade deficit in February, and although it was the distorted by the lunar new year, some will see evidence that the yuan is now over-valued.  The ECB did not change policy, but the large pay down of LTRO borrowings, and the strength of the euro, may spur speculation that the door to easing has not closed.  Moreover, official efforts to jawbone the euro lower may also increase. 

 

Euro:  The rally in the second half of last week, left the euro stretched.  This is illustrated by the fact that it spent the pre-weekend session above the top of its Bollinger Band (two standard deviations about the 20-day moving average).     That last time it did anything close to this was in mid-September last year.     In addition, its proximity to the psychological and technically significant $1.40 area may change the risk-reward calculations for many participants.   This is not to say that a deep pullback is necessary, but we can see a move back into the $1.3780-$1.3825 band. 

 

Sterling:  Short-term market positioning, judging from the Commitment of Traders remains extreme for sterling.  This might help explain the market’s cautiousness as sterling approached $1.68.  There is a mild bearish divergence that is evident on the daily RSI.    Support is seen $1.6640-60.   Separately, we note that the euro’s downtrend against sterling from last August high near GBP0.8770 has been approached.  We draw it coming in on Monday, March 10 near GBP0.8310, which is near the top of the Bollinger Band,  and GBP0.8298 by the end of the week.  While a convincing break has to be respected, we are bit wary.  

 

Yen:  The dollar is over-stretched against the yen.  At its high, the dollar was nearly 3 standard deviations away from its 20-day moving average (~JPY103.55).  The top of the Bollinger Band comes in near JPY103.10.     By this measure, the dollar is the most stretched against the yen as it has been in years, including the earlier run-up in anticipation of Abenomics beginning in late-2012.     We had suggested dollar potential into the JPY103.10-65 band, and now that it has reached it, we suspect a consoldative phase is near, especially if we are correct about the larger investment climate.  Initial support for the dollar is pegged near JPY102.80-JPY103.10 now, with additional support near JPY102.50.  

 

Canadian dollar:   The optics of Canada’s jobs data were worse than the details, but the Bank of Canada is now the most dovish within the dollar-bloc.  The US dollar tested important technical resistance near CAD1.11 before the weekend.  This corresponds to a retracement objective and a trend line off the Feb 21 high near CAD1.12.   Our reading of the technical indicators warn that the dollar will likely rise through the CAD1.11 area and test CAD1.12 in the days ahead.  

 

Australian dollar:     With the help of spectacular first tier data, especially robust retail sales and trade surplus, the Australian dollar was the strongest currency last week gaining about 1.75% against the US dollar.  It closed on March 6 above the top of its Bollinger Band, for the first time since mid-January and moved back barely within in before the weekend.  The close was near its lows after new four month highs were recorded.   The close below $0.9080, which corresponds to both the 100-day moving average and the minimum retracement objective of the Aussie’s slide since last October, warns of additional near-term losses. There is potential from a technical point of view back into the $0.9015-40 range.    On the upside, the $0.9200 is an important psychological level and coincides with the 50% retracement objective of the slide.  

 

Mexican peso:   The peso participated in the move against the dollar at the end of last week.  After breaking  below the lower end of the trading range since mid-January around MXN13.20, the greenback found support near MXN13.11.   Technically, we see the risk that the break is not sustained and the greenback moves back into the MXN13.20-MXN13.40 trading range and possibly toward the middle to upper end again.  On March 6, the US dollar closed below the bottom of the Bollinger band for the first time since last September.  It moved back into the band before the weekend.  The 20-day moving average, the middle of the Bollinger Band comes in near MXN13.26 and that seems to be the immediate risk. 

 

Observations from the speculative positioning in the CME currency futures:  

 

1.  Position adjustments remained minor.  In the previous reporting period there were no gross position changes of more than 10k contracts.  In the most recent reporting period there was one:   the gross long euro position rose 10.9k contracts to 103.9k.  This is the largest gross long position since last November.    There were no other gross position adjustment that exceeded 6k contracts. 

 

2.  Among the small adjustments, the general pattern was to add to gross short currency positions.  They were only reduced in sterling (-4.3k contracts to 41.4k) and peso (-2.6k to 29k contracts). In both of these currencies, exposure was reduced as both the longs and shorts were pared.  

 

3.   Outside of the euro, which as we have noted saw a large rise in the gross longs, the gross longs of the other six currencies we review were evenly split between buying and selling.  

 

4.  The gross long euro and sterling positions dominate the speculative currency future long positions (103.9k and  71.0k respectively).  None of the other currencies’ gross long position is more than 24k.   The 12.2k gross long Australian dollar futures position and the 6.2k peso futures position seems particularly small.  It may be begging for a contrarian stance, but as we note above the technical outlook suggest this is not the time.  

 

5.  The gross short positions are less concentrated.  The yen, of course, is the leader with 100.1k gross short futures contracts, but the euro’s 80.4k and Canadian dollar’s 84.4k contracts are also substantial.  They are followed by the Aussie (53.4k contracts) and sterling’s gross short 41.4k contracts).  The lower level of gross short peso (29.0k contracts) and franc (19.7k contracts), in part simply reflects the lack of participation presently.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1n58sfk Marc To Market

The euro and Swiss franc rose to new highs since Q4 2011, while sterling moved to within half a cent of the best level since 2009 set in mid-February in recent days.  The market was all rife with speculation of a break out.  However, our reading of the technical and fundamental condition, suggests dollar bears tread carefully.

 

If the past week was about the lack of escalation in both Russia/Ukraine and China, coupled with the ECB holding pat, next week may see the pendulum swing back a bit. This could lend itself to a more consolidative trading, which in the current context, may be somewhat supportive of the greenback.  

 

With a referendum planned in Crimea next weekend that will likely lead Russia’s annexation, the confrontation may escalate again.  Although the yuan strengthened in the past week, we suspect that uncertainty spurred by the first on-shore default and the apparent official desire to inject more volatility may weigh on the yuan..  China unexpectedly reported a large trade deficit in February, and although it was the distorted by the lunar new year, some will see evidence that the yuan is now over-valued.  The ECB did not change policy, but the large pay down of LTRO borrowings, and the strength of the euro, may spur speculation that the door to easing has not closed.  Moreover, official efforts to jawbone the euro lower may also increase. 

 

Euro:  The rally in the second half of last week, left the euro stretched.  This is illustrated by the fact that it spent the pre-weekend session above the top of its Bollinger Band (two standard deviations about the 20-day moving average).     That last time it did anything close to this was in mid-September last year.     In addition, its proximity to the psychological and technically significant $1.40 area may change the risk-reward calculations for many participants.   This is not to say that a deep pullback is necessary, but we can see a move back into the $1.3780-$1.3825 band. 

 

Sterling:  Short-term market positioning, judging from the Commitment of Traders remains extreme for sterling.  This might help explain the market’s cautiousness as sterling approached $1.68.  There is a mild bearish divergence that is evident on the daily RSI.    Support is seen $1.6640-60.   Separately, we note that the euro’s downtrend against sterling from last August high near GBP0.8770 has been approached.  We draw it coming in on Monday, March 10 near GBP0.8310, which is near the top of the Bollinger Band,  and GBP0.8298 by the end of the week.  While a convincing break has to be respected, we are bit wary.  

 

Yen:  The dollar is over-stretched against the yen.  At its high, the dollar was nearly 3 standard deviations away from its 20-day moving average (~JPY103.55).  The top of the Bollinger Band comes in near JPY103.10.     By this measure, the dollar is the most stretched against the yen as it has been in years, including the earlier run-up in anticipation of Abenomics beginning in late-2012.     We had suggested dollar potential into the JPY103.10-65 band, and now that it has reached it, we suspect a consoldative phase is near, especially if we are correct about the larger investment climate.  Initial support for the dollar is pegged near JPY102.80-JPY103.10 now, with additional support near JPY102.50.  

 

Canadian dollar:   The optics of Canada’s jobs data were worse than the details, but the Bank of Canada is now the most dovish within the dollar-bloc.  The US dollar tested important technical resistance near CAD1.11 before the weekend.  This corresponds to a retracement objective and a trend line off the Feb 21 high near CAD1.12.   Our reading of the technical indicators warn that the dollar will likely rise through the CAD1.11 area and test CAD1.12 in the days ahead.  

 

Australian dollar:     With the help of spectacular first tier data, especially robust retail sales and trade surplus, the Australian dollar was the strongest currency last week gaining about 1.75% against the US dollar.  It closed on March 6 above the top of its Bollinger Band, for the first time since mid-January and moved back barely within in before the weekend.  The close was near its lows after new four month highs were recorded.   The close below $0.9080, which corresponds to both the 100-day moving average and the minimum retracement objective of the Aussie’s slide since last October, warns of additional near-term losses. There is potential from a technical point of view back into the $0.9015-40 range.    On the upside, the $0.9200 is an important psychological level and coincides with the 50% retracement objective of the slide.  

 

Mexican peso:   The peso participated in the move against the dollar at the end of last week.  After breaking  below the lower end of the trading range since mid-January around MXN13.20, the greenback found support near MXN13.11.   Technically, we see the risk that the break is not sustained and the greenback moves back into the MXN13.20-MXN13.40 trading range and possibly toward the middle to upper end again.  On March 6, the US dollar closed below the bottom of the Bollinger band for the first time since last September.  It moved back into the band before the weekend.  The 20-day moving average, the middle of the Bollinger Band comes in near MXN13.26 and that seems to be the immediate risk. 

 

Observations from the speculative positioning in the CME currency futures:  

 

1.  Position adjustments remained minor.  In the previous reporting period there were no gross position changes of more than 10k contracts.  In the most recent reporting period there was one:   the gross long euro position rose 10.9k contracts to 103.9k.  This is the largest gross long position since last November.    There were no other gross position adjustment that exceeded 6k contracts. 

 

2.  Among the small adjustments, the general pattern was to add to gross short currency positions.  They were only reduced in sterling (-4.3k contracts to 41.4k) and peso (-2.6k to 29k contracts). In both of these currencies, exposure was reduced as both the longs and shorts were pared.  

 

3.   Outside of the euro, which as we have noted saw a large rise in the gross longs, the gross longs of the other six currencies we review were evenly split between buying and selling.  

 

4.  The gross long euro and sterling positions dominate the speculative currency future long positions (103.9k and  71.0k respectively).  None of the other currencies’ gross long position is more than 24k.   The 12.2k gross long Australian dollar futures position and the 6.2k peso futures position seems particularly small.  It may be begging for a contrarian stance, but as we note above the technical outlook suggest this is not the time.  

 

5.  The gross short positions are less concentrated.  The yen, of course, is the leader with 100.1k gross short futures contracts, but the euro’s 80.4k and Canadian dollar’s 84.4k contracts are also substantial.  They are followed by the Aussie (53.4k contracts) and sterling’s gross short 41.4k contracts).  The lower level of gross short peso (29.0k contracts) and franc (19.7k contracts), in part simply reflects the lack of participation presently.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/O5DUKC Marc To Market

Plenty of excuses out there for this evening's collosal miss in Chinese exports (-18.1% YoY vs an expectation of a 7.5% rise) mainly based on timing issues over the Lunar New Year (but didn't the 45 economists who forecast this data know the dates before they forecast?) This is a 6-sigma miss and plunges China's trade balance to its biggest miss on record and 2nd largest deficit on record. Combining Jan and Feb data (i.e. smoothing over the holiday), exports are still down 1.6% YoY – not good for the much-heralded global recovery. Exports to the rest of the BRICs were all down over 20% but no there is no contagion from an emerging market crisis.

 

Even when the trade deficit was last this large, economists were more accurate – this is the biggest miss on record…

 

Seasonally-adjusted the data is stunningly bad…

• *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED EXPORTS FALL 34% MOM
• *CHINA FEB. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED IMPORTS FALL 0.4% MOM

and non-seaonally-adjusted

• *CHINA'S FEB. EXPORTS FALL 18.1% FROM YEAR EARLIER (vs +7.5% expectations)

The excuse…

"The Spring Festival factor caused sharp fluctuations in the monthly growth rate as well as the monthly deficit," Customs said in a statement accompanying the data.

 

Chinese traders followed their "business habit" of bringing forward exports ahead of the holiday, and focusing on imports immediately afterwards, it added.

But, our simple question is – didn't they already know this when applying their forecasts? If so – then why a 6-standard-deviation miss?

At least they didn't blame the weather?!!

It seems the massive imports of copper – to act as collateral for all the shadow banking loans – also did not help as imports surged…

*CHINA JAN.-FEB. COPPER, PRODUCT IMPORTS 915,000 TONS

 

All that apparent demand and yet the price is collapsing – not good for the credit unwind

And what does it say about the US that our trade balance with China collapsed MoM…

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1f9qvvR Tyler Durden

Via Martin Armstrong of Armstrong Economics blog,

For Obama to claim that a public vote in Crimea would violate the Constitution of Ukraine and International Law is really just as absurd that the same argument put forth by Putin that nothing in Kiev was legal because it was not signed by Yanukovych. There should be a vote, but it should be monitored independently to ensure it is real. To argue that no state may move to secede from a federal government is ridiculous. Obama said:

“Any discussion about the future of Ukraine must include the legitimate government of Ukraine. In 2014, we are well beyond the days when borders can be redrawn over the heads of democratic leaders.”

Texas has the ABSOLUTE right to secede from the United States if it so desired and the Washington has no right to invade Texas to prevent that – although they too would in the blink-of-an-eye. There are no “democratic” leaders in Kiev as of yet because this is a grass-roots uprising that distrusts anyone who has EVER been in government before.

Meanwhile, you cannot say the people have no right to decide their own fate because this violates the will of “democratic” leaders. No elected official has the right to trump the wishes of the people and let us call a spade a spade – the EU suppresses the right to vote because they are afraid the people in Europe would vote against the euro. The EU interfered with Italian elections and it threatened Georgios Papandreou of Greece that it was NOT ALLOWED to allow the people to vote on staying in the Euro. Greece back-down and did not allow that to take place – so much for democratic ideals.

Let the people decide and YES we can redraw the borders if the PEOPLE so desire. If splitting Ukraine PREVENTS war – then so be it. The word for “slave” in Latin is “servus” and that is the root of public servant. Politicians should remember they are NOT the dictators of the people, but the servants of the people. There can never be any justification to deny the people the right to be heard. That is the oldest right…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1k1S5eZ Tyler Durden