Month: March 2014

When Hillary Clinton compared Russia's incursion into Ukraine to the early days of Nazi Germany's expansion, she joined an illustrious band who have compared Russian President Vladimir Putin to Adolf Hitler since the 2008 Georgia crisis.

 

Via The Washington Post,

Rubio

 

McCain

 

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.): "If you could go back in time, would you have allowed Adolf Hitler to host the Olympics in Germany? To have the propaganda coup of inviting the world into Nazi Germany and putting on a false front?"

 

Former national security adviser Zbigniew Brzezisnki (in 2008): Putin is "following a course that is horrifyingly similar to that taken by Stalin and Hitler in the 1930s."

 

And again today: Called Putin "a partially comical imitation of (former Italian Prime Minister Benito) Mussolini and a more menacing reminder of Hitler."

 

Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird: "The Sudetenland had a majority of Germans. That gave Germany no right to do this in the late 1930s."

 

Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper: "We haven't seen this kind of behavior since the Second World War."

 

Anti-Putin activist and former chess champion Garry Kasparov: "Intentionally or not, the Putin regime has followed the Berlin 1936 playbook quite closely for Sochi."

 

Russian historian Andrey Zubov: "This has all happened before. Austria. Early March, 1938. The Nazis want to build up their Reich at the expense of another state."

 

British actor and gay rights activist Stephen Fry: "He is making scapegoats of gay people, just as Hitler did Jews. He cannot be allowed to get away with it."

 

International security expert Jonathan Eyal: "The Sudetenland option is not his first priority, but it is his fail safe priority."

 

Russian satirist Viktor Shenderovich: In reference to Russian figure skater Yulia Lipnitskaya, Shenderovich said he liked her "very much! But if you only knew how much Berliners in the summer of 1936 liked shot putter Hans Woelke … a smiling, handsome young man who symbolized the youth of the new Germany!"

We are sure there are plenty more to come…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1hNADur Tyler Durden

Premier Li Keqiang delivered his first government work report at the opening of the National People’s Congress (NPC) meeting last night. The new government promises to speed up reform, manage debt risks, fight pollution, and yet maintain 7.5% economic growth all at the same time but as SocGen'sWei Yao warns, this is going to be nothing if not challenging. Maybe mindful of a potential miss, Yao points out that policymakers seem to give themselves a small degree of flexibility by using new phrases like “a reasonable range for the growth rate” and “the growth target is
flexible”. Mission intractible or mission impossible?

Via SocGen's Wei Yao,
Premier Li sets himself a mission impossible
 

In the meantime, financial system risk continues to intensify as we expected. On the night before the NPC meeting, China’s bond market saw the first ever default, as a solar company failed to service its debt. One of the reasons given for keeping the same growth target is to maintain market confidence. However, judging from the lack of performance of China’s stock market today, investors may well be focusing more on debt risk just like us.

 

Targets: little flexibility

In the 2014 Government Work Report, the GDP growth target is set again at 7.5%, the same as in 2013. However, the growth targets for fixed asset investment, industrial production and foreign trade are all lowered by 0.5ppt to 17.5%, 9.5% and 7.5%, respectively. The hope is for household consumption to step up, as retail sales are expected to grow at an unchanged targeted pace of 14.5% despite a big miss (13.1%) last year.

Besides, there is no change to the stated policy stance: prudent monetary policy and proactive fiscal policy. Broad money is again targeted to grow 13% and fiscal deficit is budgeted to widen to CNY 1.35tn from CNY 1.2tn in value, which is however estimated by the government at 2.1% of GDP – the same as in 2013.

Still somewhat different from the previous government, Premier Li mentioned several times that growth should be kept within “a reasonable range”, without specifying the range. He said that the upper bound of such a range is determined by inflation and the lower bound by unemployment. The government aims to keep the unemployment rate below 4.6%, while the latest reading is 4.1%. Given that, 7.5% looks more than enough. Furthermore, the work report from the National Development and Reform Committee (NDRC) – the planning agency – pointed out for the first time that there is some flexibility around the growth target. It seems that policymakers are still trying to give themselves some leeway.

Reform dividend or drag?

In our view, the Chinese government really needs a lot more flexibility this year, given their reform promises. We agree that all the structural reform promised at the Party Plenum last November is good for China’s long-term prospects by sustaining potential productivity growth and mitigating tail risks. However, the reform dividend that Premier Li cited as one of the growth engines in 2014 may not materialise so quickly.

Going through the 2014 reform list (see below), we are pleased to see a number of concrete steps. To name a few, the language is quite firm on widening the yuan trading band, setting up a deposit insurance scheme, introducing a resolution mechanism for financial institutions, further deregulation, as well as opening banking, energy, infrastructure and telecommunication to private players. Deregulation and de-monopolisation are the only changes that we think may deliver positive impacts relatively soon, but it is not at all certain how much of a boost one can expect right away. At the same time, financial liberalisation entails higher financial market volatility in a time of rising debt risk.

The work report also devoted a section to “the war against pollution”, saying that the bad smog across China is a “red light” to the old growth model. The measures enlisted to fight this war include specific capacity reduction targets for a number of heavy industries and more marketdriven utility prices. None of these are exactly pro-growth.

Moreover, policymakers have not forgotten the local government debt problem. There are more details on how they plan to defuse the risk. The thinking is to increase formal local government bonds (LGBs) but to curtail growth of local government financing vehicles’ (LGFVs) borrowing. At the moment, outstanding LGBs amount to less than CNY 800bn, while LGFVs owe more than CNY 10tn to banks, bond investors and the shadow banking system. The central government plans to issue CNY 400bn LGBs on behalf of local governments this year, which represents an increase of CNY 50bn from 2013. In the case of a sharper-than-expected GDP deceleration, this will be far from enough to ensure acceleration in infrastructure investment growth.

First bond default

It seems to us a mission impossible to achieve each and every task outlined in the Premier’s speech without compromising on the growth target. In other words, in order to hit the growth target, debt risk will probably build further and/or reform progress may suffer. This is because the starting point for 2014 is more challenging than 2013 in two major aspects:

First, the property market is likely to become a drag on growth, instead of a boost as last year. Housing sales were booming in H1 2013, which supported a revival of construction and real estate investment in H2. Signs are mounting that housing markets in lower tier cities are cracking. If the government insists on delivering growth, it will have little choice but to resort to infrastructure investment and local government borrowing.

Second, financial risk is much heightened after another year of rapid credit growth. We have long argued that China’s financial market will finally see defaults in 2014. Just on the night before the NPC meeting, a solar-panel manufacturer informed its bond investors that it is unable to pay the CNY 90mn interest on its CNY1bn bond as scheduled on 7 March. Trust product defaults are most likely to be the next. Although we do not think that China will suffer a systemic financial crisis as a result, lower credit and investment growth seems inevitable as investors start to learn to price risk
 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1hNAEP3 Tyler Durden

Members of the Ukrainian parliament have had their mobile phones hacked by equipment installed in Russia-controlled Crimea, according to the nation’s security services. Reuters reports that “an IP-telephonic attack is under way on mobile phones of members of Ukrainian parliament for the second day in row.”

 

Via Reuters,

“I confirm that an IP-telephonic attack is under way on mobile phones of members of Ukrainian parliament for the second day in row,” Valentyn Nalivaichenko told a news briefing.

 

“At the entrance to (telecoms firm) Ukrtelecom in Crimea, illegally and in violation of all commercial contracts, was installed equipment that blocks my phone as well as the phones of other deputies, regardless of their political affiliation,” he said.

 

“The security services are now seeking to restore at least the security of communications,” he said. “All state information security systems were unprepared for such a brazen violation of the law.”

Hardly surprising but not exactly the actions of a nation that has “folded” on Ukraine as stocks seem to suggest.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1osqOlK Tyler Durden

Is money the root of all evil? Mike Maloney discusses this provocative question in this brief clip. Starting with the following short extract from Ayn Rand (who incidentally was born in the Crimea region of Ukraine):

“When you see that in order to produce, you need to obtain permission from men who produce nothing; when you see that money is flowing to those who deal not in goods, but in favors; when you see that men get rich more easily by graft than by work, and your laws no longer protect you against them, but protect them against you, you may know that your society is doomed.” – Ayn Rand

Maloney (and his team) express their mission thus:

To enlighten the world that maximum prosperity can only be achieved through individual freedom, free markets, and sound money.

As he noted in his first documentary,

“Your true wealth is your time and freedom. Money is just a tool for trading your time. It’s a container to store your economic energy until you are ready to deploy it. But the whole world has been turned away from real money, and has been fooled into using currency – a deceitful imposter that is silently stealing your two most valuable assets – your time, and your freedom.“

 

Full clip below:

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1g1LekN Tyler Durden

BLOOMBERG NEWS—“German Chancellor Angela Merkel has a portrait on her desk of Russian empress Catherine the Great, the Prussian-born princess who went on to expand Russia’s territory to the west and the south, including Crimea.

As President Vladimir Putin tests Europe’s resolve during the crisis over Ukraine, Merkel’s admiration for Catherine hints at the complex ties binding Germany and Russia together that give her sway over Putin yet constrain her response.

Merkel, who once told German television that Catherine had “accomplished many things under difficult circumstances,” has telephoned with Putin at least three times in the past week alone.

That diplomacy reflects her role as the key conduit between east and west.

“The German government wants to avoid drastic EU measures or sanctions on Russia,” Fredrik Erixon, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy in Brussels, said in an interview. “The main casualties of such moves would be German companies exporting to Russia or those in Russia.”

WB7–Damn, now ain’t dat some reaaaal politique!

 

. 
.

 

..

.

The Russian Empire circa 1801

 

..
..

 

The United States Circa 1908

 

. 
.

 

.

.
If Russians knew how to read, they would write me off.–Catherine The Great.

WB7–Don’t worry, they most certainly know how to read.

 

.
.

 

Bloomberg Link: Here

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1g1Lf8q williambanzai7

Submitted by James E Miller of the Ludwig von Mises Institute of Canada,

From the desk of Cass Sunstein

Former Administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs

Former appointment to NSA Advisory Panel

March 3, 2014

Hello there citizen! I hope you are enjoying your day. I also hope you are enjoying your freedom from oppression that our kind, benevolent government provides. As a former lead bureaucrat in the Obama Administration, let me assure you, Washington is working around the clock to protect you and add fulfillment to your life.

You see, without the American government, roaming bands of thieves would run rampant in our country. There would be terror in the streets. Old ladies would have their purses snatched while out for their Sunday walks. Babies would never have candy since criminals would be forever stealing it. Your right to privacy within your home would be contested by armed thugs. And your eyes and ears would be continually bombarded with propaganda by greedy corporations.

Society is always hanging by a thread. That’s why the government is here to make sure it stays secure. Yes, it’s a good thing Washington protects you. Within the state, enforcers hold a monopoly on legal force to keep you safe. If it weren’t for their tireless efforts to protect law and order, society would wither away. You should, of course, be grateful that your liberty is secure thanks to Uncle Sam.

I recently had the pleasure of returning to public life to help establish new guidelines for the unjustly scrutinized National Security Agency. Ever since the traitorous rat Edward Snowden leaked documents alleging government wrongdoing, it seems that Americans have lost faith in their government. They seem to think the government collects vast swaths of private information without court-issued warrants. They also wrongly believe they have constitutional protection for their personal belongings. This is not good. That’s why I was brought aboard to help reform the NSA and shore up support for our great overseers…I mean public servants.

Unfortunately, our recommended changes to the NSA’s policy of data collection were largely ignored by President Obama. No matter though, what Washington decides is best is always for the best. Don’t like it? When you teach at Harvard Law School, you can start criticizing how our government works. Until then, go on with your quiet, desperate lives.

Forgive me if I come off as rude. Sometimes tough love is needed to ensure our great nation remains safe and protected. We work hard to keep our society free. And yet, all we get in return is suspicion and distrust. Some of you people don’t know how to be grateful.

Lately, the efforts by the NSA have once again begun to raise eyebrows in some rather unsavory corners. It’s remarkable. Again, the government only exists to protect and serve citizens like you. Why there is any question of our moral scruples, I cannot begin to comprehend.

For your protection, I must warn you that there are dangerous conspiracies out there. A few individuals are spreading theories about government spying that shouldn’t be believed. Those who circulate such nonsense are only perpetuating evil and sinister lies. They shouldn’t be believed. In due time, they will be stopped. Their alleged “truth-seeking” is nothing but treasonous libel.

One of these rumors is that the government has actually infiltrated the World Wide Web with a number of decoys and fake identities to quell dissent. This is a ridiculous assertion. For one thing, the government respects the free sharing of ideas the internet fosters. It would never do anything to inhibit free speech rights or slander anyone who voices a false opinion. In our great American Republic, the right to free expression is absolute. It will never be trampled upon for the purposes of aggrandizing those of us attached to the state.

Sure, I once co-authored a paper urging our government to infiltrate and discredit political dissent groups. Is that a crime? It was a harmless recommendation. What’s dangerous are theories that undermine our government’s efforts to stop terrorists. I only offered our guardians in Washington a way to respond, which would consist of “cognitive infiltration of extremist groups.” No big deal there. On the 1st Amendment, I also once argued the free flow of ideas may be better served with a government that regulates speech so as to ensure a better democracy. I truly do believe that our “constitutional guarantee of free speech” is not “adequately serving democratic goals.” Here again, I was only making recommendations so as to ensure a more perfect, more just, and more free country.

Now, there apparently is documented evidence proving the government dispatched a number of gadflies to silence political dissenters. Well, that just can’t be. The government is always a source of truth and goodness. None of the million or so bureaucrats who man our glorious state apparatus have a devious bone in their body.

The source of these rumors is the new media outlet founded by that unpatriotic scoundrel Glenn Greenwald. He claims to have unadulterated proof that government agents clandestinely work to dispel dissent by spreading lies online. Remember: this is the same Greenwald who fled his own country to live in Brazil. That means he can’t be trusted.

And let me assure you, if there is any truth to these revelations, then you are still in good hands. Our government only targets those who pose as threats to the nation’s health. Innocent, hard-working citizens have nothing to worry about. Certainly, there may be mistakes from time to time. But rest assured, any injustice inflicted by our good-natured officials is corrected as soon as possible.

There’s also another crazed assertion going around that our friends in the British government are capturing images of civilians in possibly compromising positions. The NSA supposedly assisted in this effort. Let me just say that all sounds like nonsense. Only in the make-believe world of George Orwell would such a thing to take place.

A foreign news outlet is trumpeting these claims. It claims to have proof of this gross violation of privacy. Now a few United States Senators are looking into the issue. Their efforts might score political points back home, but I can assure you, citizen, there is no violation of basic rights going on.

All of this breaking news is really a shame. It was the efforts of bureaucrats such as myself that we really had you ignorant of your own government’s activities. It was for your own good of course! Keeping you safe means knowing everything going on within our national borders. It also means monitoring the national “conversation” and making sure no unapproved comments are brought to light. The Zeitgeist is very important. If our government is to survive so as to protect the nation, then we must maintain legitimacy in the eyes of the serfs….I mean taxpayers.

For decades, Washington had a strict policy of labeling folks who challenge the efficacy of the government paranoid freaks who shouldn’t be given any attention. The news media followed its lead. As did the academics within prestigious universities including yours truly. For a good while, the state’s influence pervaded all corners of the country. But since the advent of the internet, and the terribly, unguided pool of information it houses, you and your fellow citizens are now subject to unverified truth. It used to be that you needed the permission of bureaucrats like me to know what’s real and what’s not. Now you can figure it out yourself, and that’s not good.

I will confess something to you citizen: there is a grain of truth to the notion that government attempts to influence your personal behavior. Sometimes, government officials try to discredit voices that challenge their authority. Other times they attempt to influence your spending habits to control the economy. And many times regulators flood the school system with pro-state propaganda to influence the next generation. In my book Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness, I outline a plan for government to coerce you into making certain decisions. I only presume to know what you want, because I do. That’s why I travel in the upper branches of government.

This isn’t anything new. In the 1950s, the CIA instituted a program known as “Operation Mockingbird” in an attempt to influence the mainstream news. Journalists were recruited to spread the message of honor and nobility within the ranks of our government. Anybody who questioned our message was immediately marginalized. We couldn’t let the American people know they were being played for pawns. It’s all for national security, you see.

You must understand that this is all done for your own good. For your safety and posterity, it’s sometimes better for you to be left in the dark. There are smarter, more capable people taking care of you. Don’t like it? You can spend some time in luxurious prison system where guns, drugs, and other paraphernalia are within your grasp. You should be so lucky as to experience that kind of vacation!

I’ll leave you with one final reminder: the government is always watching. Uncle Sam does it for your own benefit. You’re not allowed to disagree. Just think of me and my bureaucratic colleagues as wise paternal figures. Sit down. Shut up. And keep paying your taxes.

Your friend,

Cass Sunstein

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1hO0F04 Tyler Durden

The pool of potential capitulators is practically peopleless…

 

 

h/t @Not_Jim_Cramer

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1osgVok Tyler Durden