Month: March 2014

Russia Warns Kerry’s “Threats Are Unacceptable” As Europe Weighs Sanctions

Russia has lashed out following comments from US Secretary of State John Kerry:

  • *RUSSIA SAYS KERRY THREATS ARE `UNACCEPTABLE’
  • *RUSSIA SAYS KERRY ISN’T ANALYSING SITUATION IN UKRAINE
  • *KERRY IS USING COLD WAR SLOGANS, RUSSIA FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS

In comments on the Russian foreign ministry website, Lavrov added:

  • *RUSSIAN MEASURES IN UKRAINE ARE `REASONABLE,’ `LEGAL’: FOR.MIN.
  • *U.S., ALLIES IGNORED VIOLENCE, RUSSOPHOBIA IN UKRAINE PROTESTS
  • *G-8 HALT OF PREPARATIONS FOR SUMMIT IS UNCONSTRUCTIVE: RUSSIA

 

In addition, EU ministers debate freezing the assets of Ukrainians responsible for corruption and “targeted measures” against Russia if no change of course is undertaken.

  • *EU Ministers Debate Freezing Assets of Ukrainians Responsible for Corruption – Draft Text
  • *EU Debates Calling Russian Crimea Actions “Invasion” – Draft Text
  • *EU Commends Ukraine’s Response to Russia Actions – Draft
  • *EU Will Suspend Visa Negotiations with Russia – Draft Text
  • *EU Debating Placing Arms Embargo on Russia If No Change of Course
  • *EU Could Prepare Future “Targeted Measures” vs Russia If No Change in Course – Draft

Perhaps most notable though this morning was the following headline:

  • *RUSSIA DEP FORMIN KARASIN SPOKE ON UKRAINE W/ CHINA COUNTERPART
  • *RUSSIA: CHINA EXPRESSED UNDERSTANDING OF ITS UKRAINE ANALYSIS
  • *RUSSIA, CHINA DISCUSSED UKRAINE’S INTERNAL POLITICAL CRISIS

In other words, China was well aware of the plan and appears comfortable taking sides.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/Nn50g5 Tyler Durden

Russian Stocks Crash As Central Bank Scrambles, Hikes Rates Most Since 1998 Default

Following a 150bps rate hike by the central bank – the largest since the 1998 default –desperate to halt capital outflows and a collapsing currency, Russian stocks have crashed 11% led by some of the country’s largest banks. USDRUB rose to just shy of 37 – the weakest RUB rate on record – but rallied back a little on the rate hike but the MICEX stock index tumbled 11% to almost 2-year lows with Sberbank (Russia’s largest bank) down 17% and VTB (2nd largest bank) down 20%. Between the threat of economic sanctions from the West and simple risk-aversion-based capital flight, as one analyst noted, “uncertainty risks a further escalation in domestic capital outflow.” 

 

MICEX is down 11% today alone…

 

Ruble at record lows against the USD…

 

It was the biggest increase in a Russian benchmark rate since June 1998, less than two months before Russia defaulted on domestic sovereign bonds and devalued the currency. The refinancing rate used to be the central bank’s main reference.

 

The Banks have been battered…

 

  • Sberbank, Russia’s biggest bank, drops 17%, loses most since 2008
  • VTB, Russia’s second-bigest lender, tumbles 20%
  • Bank St. Petersburg falls 16%
  • Bank Vozrozhdenie declines 10%
  • Nomos Bank slides 12%

 

European and U.S. leaders have threatened sanctions against Russia, creating risks that economic growth will stall, demand for the country’s assets will dry up and a selloff in the currency will deepen. “There is a risk of international backlash against Russia at a time when the economy faces an increasing need for foreign capital inflows… This uncertainty risks a further escalation in domestic capital outflow.”


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/Nn1wKz Tyler Durden

Q/A with Virginia Postrel and C-SPAN’s Brian Lamb: Glamour and Politics

Great Q&A between C-SPAN’s Brian Lamb and former Reason
Editor in Chief Virginia Postrel about her new book
The Power of Glamour.

From the C-SPAN
writeup:

Virginia Postrel, author of The Power of Glamour:
Longing and the Art of Visual Persuasion, talked about the
qualities that make a person or thing “glamorous.” She believes
that glamour can often affect the way the public views political
figures. She named examples of Ronald Reagan, John F. Kennedy,
Ernesto “Che” Guevara, and Barack Obama, to name a few. She also
described the ways that people transform themselves into being
glamorous, citing Jacqueline Kennedy as an example who went to
great lengths to become a glamorous first lady. She also talked
about some of the un-glamorous events that she has gone through,
such as donating a kidney to psychiatrist Sally Satel in 2006, and
successfully fighting breast cancer in 2007. She said that
Washington, D.C., politics had become “nastier and more ritualized”
over the past few years.

Watch by clicking above or go
here for more options.

Reason TV interviewed Postrel last fall. Check
it out.

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A.M. Links: Obama To Campaign For Minimum Wage Hike, Russia Vows To Keep Troops in Ukraine, Former IRS Official To Testify Before House Committee

  • President Obama is to campaign for raising the
    minimum wage     this week.
  • Russia has vowed to keep its
    troops in Ukraine    . The Russian foreign minister says
    “ultra-nationalists” in Ukraine threaten the interests of Russians
    and Russian speakers.
  • Gravity won seven
    Academy Awards     last night, including best director. Best
    picture went to 12 Years a Slave, Matthew McConaughey won
    best actor for his performance in Dallas Buyers Club, and
    Cate Blanchett won best actress for her performance in Blue
    Jasmine    .
  • Afghan President
    Hamid Karzai     has criticized the U.S., saying that the war in
    his country has been “for the U.S. security and for the Western
    interests.”
  • Former Internal Revenue Service Director of Tax-Exempt
    Organizations
    Lois Lerner     will testify before the House Committee on
    Oversight and Government Reform this week. Lerner invoked the Fifth
    Amendment in a May 2013 hearing on the IRS’ targeting of
    conservative groups.
  • Conservatives are frustrated by the
    Republican Party’s     compromises and lack of leadership.

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up for Reason’s daily updates for more
content.

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Ellen DeGeneres, the Oscars, and the Selfie That Broke Twitter

While hosting the Academy Awards last night, Ellen DeGeneres
tweeted this selfie that quickly set a record as the most retweeted
item EVAH. Her caption: “If only Bradley’s arm was longer. Best
photo ever.” The traffic on Twitter was so massive the service
actually couldn’t keep up for a while.

As the
Los Angeles Times wrote, the popularity of the image above
easily busted the previous retweet record, which was held by
President Barack Obama, who sometime in 2012 tweeted, “Four more
years.”

At
9 p.m. PST, the Ellen tweet was pushing 1.8 million retweets
(although Twitter stuttered with the traffic
load brought on by the tweet, and different users were seeing
different totals).

That obliterates the Obama retweet total of 778,801.

Is there any socio-cultural import to be found in this?
Does this mean that culture trumps politics? That celebs are more
attractive than pols? That Sunday night is the right time for
infamously long, boring awards shows? That Obama’s second-term
agenda is as dead as the future careers of the folks winning best
supporting Oscars?

Perhaps it’s worth looking at the compositional
differences between the two biggest tweets of all time. The stars
are looking at viewers and directly engaging us in joy and
fellowship; it’s an invitation to share in a moment. Obama’s eyes
are closed and he’s in a rapturous embrace with (presumably) his
wife and lover. The viewer is cast in the role of a voyeur rather
than an active participant. Perhaps that’s a metaphor for Obama’s
presidency in which many if not most of his biggest
“accomplishments” – TARP, Obamacare, dragnet surveillance – have
been wildly unpopular with the voting masses. We are supposed to
gaze upon him and follow him around but not disturb his
reveries.

Hash it out in the comments.

For a list of Oscar winners, go
here.

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Ukraine’s Prime Minister Speaks

Ukraine’s acting PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk speaks. Highlights below:

  • UKRAINE TO FULFILL ALL IMF REQUIREMENTS, PREMIER SAYS – like Greece?
  • UKRAINE PM SAYS BELIEVES RUSSIAN TROOPS WON’T INVADE E. UKRAINE – because they are there already?
  • UKRAINE PM SEEKS TO INCREASE RESERVES TO EASE FX FLUCTUATIONS – “Whatever it takes”, even printing dollars
  • UKRAINE PM SAYS NAFTOGAZ SHOULD BE PRIVATIZED – Ukraine oligarchs delighted by this development
  • UKRAINE PM SAYS NEW GOVERNMENT HAS NO INTENTION OF NATIONALISING PRIVATE COMPANIES” – Ukraine oligarchs even more delighted by this development

And finally, why all the above was irrelevant:

  • UKRAINE PM SAYS RUSSIA REFUSES TO HOLD BILATERAL UKRAINE TALKS

Oh well, as long as it fools those USDJPY ramp algos if only for a few minutes.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1hXQhSf Tyler Durden

Frontrunning: March 3

  • Russian markets hit as Putin tightens grip on Crimea (Reuters)
  • Ukraine Sees More Russian Incursions as Standoff Worsens (BBG)
  • Ukraine Crisis Roils Global Markets (WSJ)
  • Cold War Ghosts Haunt East Europe in Moves for Crimea (BBG)
  • How Moscow Orchestrated Events in Crimea (WSJ)
  • Russia Gas Threat Shows Putin Using Pipes to Press Ukraine (BBG)
  • Euro-zone PMI slowed less sharply than estimated (MW)
  • Two top Microsoft execs to leave in reshuffle (Reuters)
  • Soaring Luxury-Goods Prices Test Wealthy’s Will to Pay (WSJ)
  • IQ-Boosting Drugs Aim to Help Down Syndrome Kids Learn (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* The U.S. and its European allies vowed Sunday to isolate Russian President Vladimir Putin and punish his nation’s economy, demanding he withdraw what they called an occupation force from Ukraine’s Crimean region.

* Bruce Berkowitz, a prominent mutual-fund investor, sent letters to the boards of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac late Friday scolding directors for not protecting the rights of shareholders, upping the ante in his bid to let investors share in the spoils of the newly profitable mortgage-finance giants.

* Investors rushed into safe-haven assets and cut their exposure to stocks as an escalating crisis in Ukraine sent a chill through global markets.

* Comcast Corp is near a deal to acquire FreeWheel Media Inc, a Web-video company for about $320 million, a person familiar with the matter said.

* Pfizer Inc hopes to overcome skepticism that consumers can appropriately take an over-the-counter version of cholesterol pill Lipitor without doctor guidance.

* The recent loss of nearly a half-billion dollars from a major bitcoin exchange is forcing U.S. regulators to confront burgeoning questions about their authority-and responsibility-to oversee the fledgling virtual currency.

* Warren Buffett and his business partner Charles Munger have long been bullish on the United States, building a “rock-solid foundation” for Berkshire Hathaway Inc with calculated bets on the country’s economic future. In 2013, those efforts paid off handsomely for Berkshire shareholders as the gigantic conglomerate posted record annual profits, aided by a generous tailwind from the improving U.S. economy.

* Mexican police questioned a Citigroup Inc employee suspected of participating in the alleged theft of $400 million from the bank, according to a person familiar with the matter.

* U.S. aviation regulators want cockpit-automation fixes on nearly 500 Boeing Co 737 planes, seeking to prevent pilot errors that over the years have caused fatal crashes of several jet and turboprop airliners.

 

FT

The international community condemned Russia’s intrusion into Ukraine and warned that it could face economic isolation.

Concerns are being raised as U.S. stocks reach new highs by investors borrowing a record amount of money to invest in the market.

Citigroup’s Mexican subsidiary is being investigated by the Securities and Exchange commission over the alleged fraud, which caused the bank to revise its earnings last week.

Royal Bank of Scotland plans to cut its assets in the United States in an attempt to circumvent new Federal Reserve rules that would force it to ring-fence a part of its capital to safe guard against any future crisis.

Britain’s tax authority plans to scrap value added tax on Bitcoin trading, only days after the currency’s leading exchange, Mt Gox, collapsed after losing almost $500 million of customer deposits to hackers.

 

NYT

* In the biggest shuffling of Microsoft Corp’s executive ranks since the company’s new chief executive, Satya Nadella, took over, Mark Penn, the former aide to the Clinton family, is becoming the company’s chief strategy officer.

* All good things come to an end, even for the rich, and sometime this month, Forbes will probably pass out of family control and into the hands of a foreign owner.

* American Express Co’s new card, called Amex EveryDay and highlighted in an ad campaign starring Tina Fey, is aimed people who are not big spenders and do not jet around the world for either work or play.

* The challenge for Warren Buffett is whether Berkshire Hathaway Inc can continue to make large acquisitions that will help the company grow at a pace that will sustain his reputation as the nation’s shrewdest investor.

* Mt. Gox, once the largest Bitcoin exchange in the world, filed for bankruptcy protection on Friday and said that it might have lost 750,000 of its customers’ coins in a hacking attack.

* Stephen Schwarzman, the co-founder and chief executive of Blackstone Group, made a total of $374.5 million in 2013, mostly from the cash dividends he received on his partnership units.

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* Toronto Mayor Rob Ford made a brief cameo on comedian Jimmy Kimmel’s post-Oscars special, even tweeting from the set: “Getting ready to walk on set @JimmyKimmelLive #robfordattheoscars #Toronto #LA,” with a photo of the tuxedoed mayor standing backstage.

* After spending months getting over the shock of the New Democratic Party’s stunning loss in the past British Columbia election, veteran MLA Mike Farnworth had to survey colleagues about what direction his future should take.

Reports in the business section:

* Canadian Natural Resources Ltd has been leaking bitumen to the surface at one of its oil sands sites since last May. In November, the company’s president called the problem “totally solvable.” Canadian Natural this week has another chance to explain to investors and analysts how much progress it has made with the troublesome leaks.

* The vast majority of jobs created last year were part-time positions in what a new report calls a “lackluster” year for Canada’s labor market. Almost 95 percent of net new positions were part-time, according to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce’s analysis of the 2013 labor market, a year that saw the weakest job growth since 2009.

NATIONAL POST

* A judge has ordered a doctor in Hanover, Ontario, to pay C$15 million ($13.5 million) in damages – among the largest malpractice awards ever in Canada – saying that Dr. Richard Edington misdiagnosed the woman’s tell-tale symptoms, delayed treatment she desperately needed and took steps that actually hastened that brain attack.

* Embattled Senator Mike Duffy vowed that if he ever faced trial over his questionable expense claims, he would bring down high-ranking members of the Conservative party, according to a new book.

FINANCIAL POST

* The takeover battle between Goldcorp Inc and Osisko Mining Corp is heating up, but not for reasons that have anything to with the terms of the actual bid. The two sides are set to face off in the Quebec Superior Court this week over Osisko’s claim that Goldcorp misused confidential information when it launched the C$2.6 billion ($2.35 billion) hostile offer in January.

 

China

CHINA DAILY

– The fact that the Kunming train station attack happened on the eve of the annual session of parliament suggests that the perpetrators intended to sabotage the stability of the country, an editorial said.

SHANGHAI DAILY

– Shanghai has stepped up security at train stations and airports in the wake of the Kunming attacks, with tighter checks at entrances and armed police personnel on patrol. Railway police will put more officers on trains between Beijing and Shanghai this week as the capital hosts the annual session of the National People’s Congress, or parliament.

– People or companies found guilty of polluting Shanghai’s air will face stiff new penalties under revised legislation set to come into force this year, with no upper limit on the penalties in some cases, lawmakers said.

GLOBAL TIMES

– The evolution of the Ukrainian situation shows us clearly that in the international political arena, principles are decided by power; without its support and blessing, no principle can prevail, an editorial said.

CHINA BUSINESS NEWS

– State Grid Corporation of China, the largest state-owned power distributor in the country, said its investment in 2014 would hit 380 billion yuan, including renovations of substations and construction of new electric networks.

– Securities Association of China will launch a probe into “Yong Jinbao”, an online brokerage product by Sinolink Securities and Tencent, whose ultra-low commission rate has been widely accused of malicious price competition, a source said.

 

Britain

The Telegraph

FREE BANKING COULD END, SAYS RBS BOSS

The end of free banking for customers is probably only a matter of time, with direct charges for current accounts almost inevitable, according to Ross McEwan, the chief executive of the Royal Bank of Scotland. McEwan, however, said that he had no plans to begin phasing out free accounts at the moment.

OSBORNE ACCUSED OF DOUBLE TAXATION ON ENERGY BILLS

The British Chancellor has been accused of making tens of millions of pounds in double taxation on energy bills – by charging VAT on top of “green” taxes.

The Guardian

AIR PASSENGERS WILL GO TO SCOTLAND TO AVOID PAYING DUTY – BA BOSS

The boss of British Airways has said he expects hundreds of thousands of people to drive from England to Scotland to avoid air passenger duty if Scotland becomes independent.

UK-SPAIN POLICE SWOOP ON SHARES FRAUD LEADS TO 110 ARRESTS

Criminal gangs blamed for fake-share scams that robbed British victims of millions of pounds in savings have been rounded up in an international crackdown involving UK police.

The Independent

HALF A MILLION UK HOMES IN NEGATIVE EQUITY

Nearly half a million households in the UK are worth less than the mortgages on them, the newspaper reported citing a BBC report. The figures, released by the mortgage group HML, are based on data from more than one million home loans.

‘UKRAINIAN ASSETS OWNED OR USED BY OUSTED PRESIDENT VIKTOR YANUKOVYCH HIDDEN BEHIND TRAIL OF FIRMS WITH LINKS TO UK’

Hundreds of millions of pounds of state assets believed to have been owned or used by the ousted Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych and his circle, including his now-notorious country mansion, are alleged to have been funnelled through London front companies.

Sky News

VIRGIN MONEY BACKS DOUBLING OF BANK BONUSES

Sir Richard Branson’s banking arm Virgin Money will this week become the latest of Britain’s high street lenders to say that it is supporting the payment of higher bonuses under new European rules.

DEBT COLLECTION GIANT SLASHES BORROWING COSTS

Lowell Group, which is owned by private equity firm TDR Capital, is to unveil a deal that will slash the cost of its own borrowings.

 

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
Personal Income for January at 8:30–consensus 0.2%
Consumer Spending for January at 8:30–consensus 0.1%
ISM manufacturing index for February at 10:00–consensus 51.9
Construction spending for January at 10:00–consensus -0.2%

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Access Midstream (ACMP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Wunderlich
Baytex Energy (BTE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Brandywine Realty (BDN) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
Hudson Pacific (HPP) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at BMO Capital
Intuit (INTU) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Kate Spade (KATE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Kronos Worldwide (KRO) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Wells Fargo
Nokia (NOK) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Canaccord
Prudential plc (PUK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
RF Micro Devices (RFMD) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
RPM (RPM) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse
Telephone and Data (TDS) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
U.S. Cellular (USM) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Western Gas Partners (WES) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS

Downgrades

AstraZeneca (AZN) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Autodesk (ADSK) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
Cobalt (CIE) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
Embraer (ERJ) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at HSBC
Emeritus (ESC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities
Forest City Enterprises (FCE) downgraded to Buy from Strong Buy at ISI Group
Infosys (INFY) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
Intelsat (I) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan
MarkWest Energy (MWE) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Meritor (MTOR) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup
NII Holdings (NIHD) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair
NewLink Genetics (NLNK) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at RW Baird
SodaStream (SODA) downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays

Initiations

Arc Logistics (ARCX) initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Arrowhead Research (ARWR) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays
CA Technologies (CA) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays
CM Finance (CMFN) initiated with an Outperform at Oppenheimer
Continental Building (CBPX) initiated with a Buy at BB&T
Continental Building (CBPX) initiated with a Buy at SunTrust
Continental Building (CBPX) initiated with a Hold at Deutsche Bank
Continental Building (CBPX) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup
Continental Building (CBPX) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
Egalet (EGLT) initiated with a Buy at Stifel
Egalet (EGLT) initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities
Eleven Biotherapeutics (EBIO) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup
Genocea (GNCA) initiated with a Buy at Citigroup
Ladder Capital (LADR) initiated with a Neutral at Citigroup
Ladder Capital (LADR) initiated with an Outperform at FBR Capital
Ladder Capital (LADR) initiated with an Outperform at JMP Securities
New York Mortgage (NYMT) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse
Revance Therapeutics (RVNC) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Sequential Brands (SQBG) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord
uniQure (QURE) initiated with a Buy at Jefferies
uniQure (QURE) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray

COMPANY NEWS

Tyco (TYC) to sell security business in South Korea to Carlyle Group (CG) for $1.93B
Tyco (TYC) raised share repurchase authorization to $2B
Roche’s (RHHBY) Genentech says independent data monitoring committee recommends Phase III METLung study be stopped
Berkshire Hathaway’s (BRK.A) Buffett sees “mother lode of opportunity” in America
Pershing Square said it would present information highlighting Herbalife’s (HLF) China practices
Cooper Tire (CTB) forecast positive operating profit in Q4, 2H13
Madison Square Garden (MSG) said Tad Smith to succeed Hank Ratner as CEO
Apple (AAPL) announced auto manufacturers rolling out CarPlay
CommonWealth (CWH) urged shareholders to reject Related/Corvex consent solicitation
UIL Holdings (UIL) to acquire Philadelphia Gas Works assets for $1.86B

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
JinkoSolar (JKS), ExlService (EXLS), Rockwood (ROC), Magna (MGA)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Magellan Health (MGLN), Cooper Tire (CTB), Cadence (CADX)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
Akorn (AKRX)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Buffett (BRK.A) warns of public pension ‘tapeworm,’ Bloomberg reports
PayPal co-founder Thiel says ‘not the time’ to split from eBay (EBAY), Forbes reports
Google (GOOG), Samsung (SSNLF) tell China of concerns over Microsoft (MSFT), Nokia (NOK) deal, Bloomberg reports
U.S. oil refiners (VLO, MPC) increasing capacity, WSJ reports
Berkowitz blasts Fannie (FNMA), Freddie (FMCC) for ignoring shareholder rights, WSJ reports
Apple (AAPL) plans to launch in-car operating system, FT reports  
Microsoft (MSFT) executives said to leave company, Re/code reports
SEC probes Citigroup (C) over fraudulent Mexican loans, Reuters reports
Pfizer (PFE) looks to sell over-the-counter version of Lipitor, WSJ reports
Home Depot (HD) sets up CEO succession plan, WSJ reports  
Novartis (NVS) chairman rules out merger with Roche (RHHBY), Reuters reports
Gap (GPS) plans to expand store count in China, WSJ reports 
Las Vegas Sands (LVS) says customer data hacked, Bloomberg reports
Comcast (CMCSA) weighs subscriber spin-off, Bloomberg reports

BARRON’S

Gap’s (GPS) Q4 results suggest more good things to come
Lear (LEA) insiders sell shortly after dividend raise
Verizon (VZ) looks appealing, AT&T (T) looks good too, but Verizon could be the better play
Yum! Brands (YUM) could rise 15%
Atwood Oceanics (ATW) could rise nearly 40% in about a year
FTD Cos. (FTD) looks appealing,
Chipotle (CMG) stock could get extra boost from price increase
Noodles & Co. (NDLS) looks expensive
UBS (UBS), AB InBev (BUD) look good
Barnes & Noble (BKS) could rise over 60%

SYNDICATE

KKR (KKR) files to sell 4.9M common units for holders
Selectica (SLTC) files to sell 2.17M shares of common stock for holders
Wheeler REIT (WHLR) files to sell 2.06M shares of common stock for holders


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1hXQhSc Tyler Durden

Ukraine Accuses Russian Fighter Jets Of Violating Its Airspace

Infantry, navy, and now air force. At least according to the Ukraine, which reported that Russian fighter jets twice violated Ukraine’s air space over the Black Sea during the night, Interfax news agency quoted the Defence Ministry as saying on Monday. It said Ukraine’s air force had scrambled a Sukhoi SU-27 interceptor aircraft and prevented any “provocative actions” but gave no further details. That was just the cherry on top to what has already been an exhausting day for risk in Russia and the Ukraine, both of which saw their currencies tumble to all time lows.

In the meantime, Russian fortifications in the region continue. Reuters summarizes:

A Ukrainian border guard spokesman said on Monday that Russian ships had been moving in and around the Crimean port city of Sevastopol, where the Russian Black Sea Fleet has a base, and that Russian forces had blocked mobile telephone services in some parts of Crimea.

He said Moscow was building up its armor near a ferry port on Russia’s side of the 4.5 km (three mile) wide Kerch straight, which separates Crimea from Russia.

“There are armoured vehicles on the other side of the strait. We can’t predict whether or not they will put any vehicles on the ferry,” the spokesman said by telephone.

There was no immediate comment from the Russian Defence Ministry.

Russian forces have already bloodlessly seized Crimea – an isolated Black Sea peninsula with an ethnic Russian majority, where Moscow has a naval base.

On Sunday they surrounded several small Ukrainian military outposts there and demanded the Ukrainian troops disarm. Some refused, leading to stand-offs, although no shots were fired.

All eyes are now on whether Russia makes a military move in predominantly Russian-speaking eastern Ukraine, where pro-Moscow demonstrators have marched and raised Russian flags over public buildings in several cities in the last two days.

Russia has staged war games with 150,000 troops along the land border, but so far they have not crossed. Kiev says Moscow is orchestrating the protests to justify a wider invasion.

Ukraine’s security council ordered the general staff to immediately put all armed forces on highest alert. However, Kiev’s small and underequipped military is seen as no match for Russia’s superpower might.

U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry condemned Russia for what he called an “incredible act of aggression” and threatened “very serious repercussions”.

G8 countries and other nations were prepared to “to go to the hilt to isolate Russia” if Moscow made the wrong choices in Ukraine, Kerry told CBS program Face the Nation.

“They are prepared to isolate Russia economically. The rouble is already going down. Russia has major economic challenges,” he said. He mentioned visa bans, asset freezes and trade isolation as possible steps.

While the EU and NATO stepped up verbal pressure on Moscow, a German spokesman said Merkel believed it was not too late to resolve the Ukrainian crisis by political means despite differences of opinion between Putin and the West.

The German leader, who speaks fluent Russian, has had several long telephone calls with the German-speaking Putin since the crisis erupted with mass protests in Kiev.

“There is no doubt President Putin has a completely different view on the situation and events in Crimea from the German government and our Western partners,” spokesman Steffen Seibert told reporters. But he added: “It is still not too late to resolve this crisis peacefully by political means.”

U.N. Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon said he would ask Russia’s foreign minister at a meeting in Geneva to refrain from acts or rhetoric that would further escalate the crisis. He was sending his deputy to convey the same message to the Ukrainian authorities in Kiev, he said.

So far, the Western response has been largely symbolic. Obama and others suspended preparations for a G8 summit in Sochi, where Putin has just finished staging his $50 billion winter Olympic games. Some countries recalled ambassadors. Britain said its ministers would stay away from the Paralympics due next in Sochi.

With the confrontation in Crimea having remained bloodless for days, a mood of imminent catastrophe has begun to ebb in Kiev, but many people are still on edge.

On Kiev’s Independence Square, known as the Maidan, where protesters manned barricades for three months to bring down Yanukovich, the morning crowds were smaller than in the past few days as people returned to work.

“Crimea, we are with you!” read one placard. “Putin – Hitler of the 21st century,” read another.

Sergei Lavreynenko, 44, a librarian from Kiev, said Ukrainians were ready to take up arms to defend the country, and were frustrated at mixed messages from the authorities.

“Of course we are all ready to go,” he said next to a display of homemade mortar tubes and molotov cocktails used in the uprising against Yanukovich. “We have all served in the military. We have military specialisms. If we can build our own mortar tube like that, we can do even better…. But it needs to be organized. You can’t just get a bunch of guys, grab sticks and clubs and race off to Crimea.”


    



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Global Equities Tumble Over Ukraine Fear

We were perhaps even more amused than our readers by our Friday headline “Stocks Close At New Record High On Russian Invasion, GDP Decline And Pending Home Sales Miss.” It appears that today the market forgot to take its lithium, and is finally focusing on the Ukraine part of the headline, at least until 3:30 pm again when everything should once again be back to market ramp normal. As expected, the PMI data from China and Europe in February, was promptly ignored and it was all about Ukraine again, where Russia sternly refuses to yield to Western demands, forcing the shocked market to retreat lower, and sending Russian stocks lower by over 11%. This is happening even as Ukraine is sending Russian gas to European consumers as normal, gas transport monopoly Ukrtransgas said on Monday. “Ukrtransgas is carrying out all its obligations, fulfilling all agreements with Gazprom. The transit (via Ukraine to Europe) totalled 200 million cubic meters as of March 1,” Ukrtransgas spokesman Maksim Belyavsky said. In other words, it can easily get worse should Russia indeed use its trump card.

Even though Bunds have failed to close the opening gap higher amid an escalation of concerns surrounding Ukraine, stocks in Europe managed to come off lows, supported by the latest PMI data and reports that gas flow from Ukraine is unaffected. Nevertheless, risk aversion remained the dominant theme and heading into the  North American open, stocks in Europe are seen lower across the board, with financials underperforming. At the same time, commodities and precious metals benefited the most from the flight to quality, with Brent surging over USD 2 overnight and wheat rising the most since September 2012. As a guide, more than half of Russia’s gas exports to the EU are shipped through Ukraine, which is also the third biggest corn shipper and the sixth-largest wheat exporter.

Apart from digesting EU-based PMI reports, market participants also absorbed a raft of UK data, which included Manufacturing PMI, Mortgage Approvals which came in at its highest since Nov’07 and money supply data, all of which failed to have a meaningful impact on GBP/USD. Looking elsewhere, despite the fact that safe-haven related flows weighed on USD/JPY overnight and in Europe this morning, EUR/CHF grinded higher and reversed over half of initial losses. Going forward, there is little in terms of tier-1 macroeconomic data releases, but Draghi is due to testify in Brussels at 1400GMT/0800CST.

Bulletin news summary from Bloomberg and RanSquawk

  • Risk averse sentiment dominated the price action throughout the session amid an escalation of concerns surrounding Ukraine, with fears over prolonged conflict also supporting Brent and soft-commodities in early trade.
  • Bunds gapped higher at the open, with stocks lower across the board and financials underperforming as credit spreads widened.
  • Eurozone PMI Manufacturing (Feb F) M/M 53.2 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 53.0) and Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Feb) M/M 48.5 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 49.5).
  • Treasuries gain, 10Y yield holding near early February lows as Ukraine says Putin’s military is strengthening its presence in Crimea, where ethnic Russians comprise a majority.
  • Russian soldiers attacked Ukrainian army units in the Black Sea district in the last 24 hours, while more armored personnel carriers and war ships have been sighted, the border guard service said today
  • Russia raised its main interest rate the most since 1998 to shore up the economy as the ruble tumbled and stocks sold off the most in five years
  • U.S. Secretary of State Kerry is traveling to Kiev after discussing sanctions against Russia while EU foreign ministers will hold an emergency meeting; Merkel and Obama agreed in phone call yesterday that political solution is only way on Crimea
  • If Obama’s handling of the crisis reinforces doubts about his toughness in addressing foreign challenges, as some critics assert, it could affect a more diverse range of issues: Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, North Korea’s nuclear weapons
  • China’s Communist Party leadership faces a dilemma over where to set a growth goal for 2014 as President Xi Jinping wrestles with sustaining expansion while limiting debt risks, environmental damage and social unrest
  • North Korea fired two short-range ballistic missiles after it launched four into the sea off its eastern coast last week, escalating tensions as the U.S. and South Korea entered the second week of joint military drills
  • Euro-region economic reports in the past month turned out reassuring enough to convince most economists that Mario Draghi doesn’t need to cut interest rates this week
  • Sovereign yields fall, with exception of Greece and Portugal. EU peripheral spreads tighten as bund yields fall. Global equity markets, U.S. stock-index futures decline. WTI crude and gold higher; copper declines

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Personal Income, Jan., est. 0.2% (prior 0.0%); Personal Spending, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.4%); PCE Deflator m/m, Jan., est. 0.1% (prior 0.2%)
  • 8:58am: Markit U.S. PMI Final, Feb., est. 56.5
  • 10:00am: ISM Manufacturing, Feb., est. 52 (prior 51.3)
  • ISM Prices Paid, Feb., est. 57.3 (prior 60.5)
  • 10:00am: Construction Spending m/m, Jan., est. -0.3% (prior 0.1%)
  • Domestic Vehicle Sales, Feb., est. 11.9m (prior 11.94m)
  • Total Vehicle Sales, Feb., est. 15.4m (prior 15.16m) Central Banks
  • 10:30pm: Reserve Bank of Australia seen holding cash rate target at 2.5%
  • 10:30am: BoE’s Carney speaks on panel in Frankfurt Supply
  • 11:00am: Fed to purchase $2.25b-$2.75b in 2021-2024 sector

Asian Headlines

JGBs rallied and JPY swap curve bull-flattened amid broad based risk averse tone which also saw the Nikkei 225 index settle lower over 1% amid geopolitical tensions in Ukraine. At the same time, after coming under focus last week, USD/CNY traded steady overnight after much of the carry trade premium was eroded by the PBOC engineered squeeze.

Chinese Manufacturing PMI (Feb) M/M 50.2 vs. Exp. 50.1 (Prev. 50.5)
Chinese Non-Manufacturing PMI (Feb) M/M 55.0 (Prev. 53.4)
Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Feb) M/M 48.5 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 49.5)

EU & UK Headlines

Eurozone PMI Manufacturing (Feb F) M/M 53.2 vs. Exp. 53.0 (Prev. 53.0)
– German PMI Manufacturing (Feb F) M/M 54.8 vs. Exp. 54.7 (Prev. 54.7)
– French PMI Manufacturing (Feb F) M/M 49.7 vs. Exp. 48.5 (Prev. 48.5)
– Spanish PMI Manufacturing (Feb) M/M 52.5 (Prev. 50.6), highest since April 2010
– Italian Manufacturing PMI (Feb) M/M 52.3 Vs. Exp. 52.8 (Prev. 53.1)

UK PMI Manufacturing (Feb) M/M 56.9 vs. Exp. 56.5 (Prev. 56.7, Rev. to 56.6)
UK Mortgage Approvals (Jan) M/M 76.9K vs. Exp. 74.5K (Prev. 71.6K, Rev. to 72.8K) – Highest since November 2007

Bunds gapped higher at the open but failed to top the high from last week seen at 145.33, which when broken will open up the door to the continuation of highs from last May at 145.80. To the downside, supports levels are seen at 144.19 which is the 61.8% Fibonacci from 25th of Feb.

Moody’s changed outlook on Germany’s Aaa rating to stable from negative, citing diminished risks for Germany in supporting other Eurozone countries. Moody’s said Germany has made progression in fiscal consolidation and the country’s balance sheet faces diminishing risks from banking system. (DJN) Moody’s also changed the outlook on Austria’s Aaa rating to stable from negative, and changed the outlook on Luxembourg’s Aaa rating to stable from negative.

US Headlines

President Obama will release his fiscal 2015 budget on Tuesday, a month late and after an especially muted rollout. The document is widely viewed as “dead on arrival” in the Capitol because appropriators already have their discretionary top-line number for the year starting Oct. 1, and because the midterm election means there is little appetite for changes to entitlements and taxes. (TheHill.com)

Equities

Stocks in Europe traded lower since the get-go, with Asian equity indices are nursing losses overnight as market participants continued to fret over the unstable situation in Ukraine. Financials underperformed on the sector break-down, while the more defensive sectors benefited from the flight to quality.

FX

GBP failed to benefit from the release of better than expected Hometrack, Manufacturing PMI and Mortgage Approvals data, with GBP/USD and EUR/USD seen little changed, thats in spite of the fact that JPY continued to benefit from safe-haven related flow.

The Russian central bank raised the key rate to 7% from 5.5% effective immediately, adding that the decision to raise rates due to rising inflationary risks and risks to financial stability. (BBG) This meeting was not scheduled until March 14th, as the central bank are forced to intervene in a volatile market after the RUB was heavily sold following military intervention in Ukraine.

Commodities

Citigroup have raised its 2014 gold forecast to USD 1,305 per oz, from USD 1,255. Analysts also raised its 2014 copper forecast to USD 6,975 per tonne, from USD 6,650 and cut its 2014 iron ore forecast to USD 113 per tonne, from USD 120. (BBG)

Barclays has raised its 2014 crude oil price forecast, on expected higher demand and investor interest levels, coupled with low inventory figures and high geopolitical risks, raising its average WTI price forecast for 2014 to USD 99 bbl, up from USD 97 bbl. (RTRS)

Analysts at SocGen expect crude prices to fall on maintenance and ending winter demand, whilst seeing more downside to WTI crude over North Sea Brent and they expect managed money length on WTI crude to reverse. (BBG)

Ukraine is transiting Russian gas to Europe as normal, according to gas transport monopoly Ukrtransgas. (RTRS)

North Korea have fired two short-range missiles into the sea. (Yonhap) This follows similar missile tests held last week on the Korean peninsula.


    



via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1cnoInF Tyler Durden

Steve Chapman on the Public Pension Crisis

Burning dollarIn state after state, elected officials have
promised public employees retirement packages without securing the
revenue needed to keep the promises. In Illinois, the state pegged
its contributions below where they should have been for a long
time. On top of that, lawmakers couldn’t resist the temptation to
borrow from the fund and skip contributions whenever it was
convenient. Stanford University economist Joshua Rauh says that not
only have the states not made progress on the issue overall, they
have actually expanded the gaping canyon they dug. So when it comes
to public pensions, writes Steve Chapman, elected officials have
arrived at a formula that suits them well: Never do today what you
can do tomorrow. And don’t do it then, either.

View this article.

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