Fed Tapers $10 Billion, Says Economy, Consumer Demand “Picked Up”

Despite dismal data (or the potential for great escape velocity is around the corner data), major event risks, and a Treasury market that just won’t buy the dream of recovery that they are selling; the Fed stuck to its tapering guns… with a consensus $10bn taper…

  • *FED TAPERS BOND BUYING TO $45 BLN MONTHLY PACE FROM $55 BLN
  • *FED: ECONOMY PICKED UP, CONSUMER DEMAND RISING `MORE QUICKLY’

Shifting from “the economy slowed due to weather…” to “consumer spending is rising more quickly” the Fed is in full consensus “everything’s gonna be alright ” mode. This leaves the Fed buying $25bn a month of Treasuries and $20bn of MBS each month and facing the tough reality that their trillions did not generate enough momentum in the US economy to overcome some snow.

Perhaps more curiously, Kocherlakota did not dissent this time around. Looks like continued tapering is no longer hawkish unlike… continued tapering?

Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 1874, 10Y 2.66%, EURUSD 1.3865, Gold $1295

Here is the Fed blaming, what else, the weather:

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that growth in economic activity has picked up recently, after having slowed sharply during the winter in part because of adverse weather conditions

And here is the full redline comparison:




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Putin: ‘US Behind Ukraine Crisis From The Beginning…Now Leading It’

Having decided counter-sanctions are useless for now, reflecting on the uselessness of Western sanctions against his nation, Vladimir Putin warned, however, that if they continue he would “have to think about who is working in the key sectors of the Russian economy” – in other words, protectionism is coming. However, it is his ominous words regarding Washington’s involvement in the crisis that appear to have fallen on deaf ears among the mainstream media… though will be no surprise to ZH readers “what is happening now shows us who really was mastering the process from the beginning. But in the beginning, the United States preferred to remain in the shadow.

 

As RT notes,

The US has been behind the Ukrainian crisis from the beginning, but was initially flying low, Russian President Vladimir Putin has told journalists, adding that he called on Kiev to establish an all-Ukrainian dialogue and find a compromise.

 

I think what is happening now shows us who really was mastering the process from the beginning. But in the beginning, the United States preferred to remain in the shadow,” Putin said, as quoted by RIA Novosti.

 

Putin stated that since the US has taken a lead role in resolving the political crisis in Ukraine, it is “telling that they originally were behind this process, but now they just have emerged as leaders” of it.

 

The “Maidan cookies” policy paves the way to a broader crisis, Putin warned, referring to US officials showing up in central Kiev and encouraging protesters during demonstrations.

 

“It is necessary to understand that the situation is serious and try to find serious approaches to the solution,” he said.

 

Putin said that he has called on Kiev to start an all-Ukrainian dialogue, adding that other countries should not be blamed for the crisis.

 

“[They should] treat equally the rights of those living in other areas of Ukraine, first of all, I mean, the east and southeast, establish a dialogue, find a compromise,” he told journalists while speaking about the measures necessary to put an end to the crisis. “Here’s what you need to do; searching for the guilty outside Ukraine is wrong.”

More “costs” as the West tries to wriggle its way from the under the pile it has created and scapegoat an unwilling to play Russia…?




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Can Police Search Your Cell Phone Without a Warrant? The Supreme Court is About to Decide

Two very important cases related to the 4th Amendment protection of cellphone data went before the Supreme Court yesterday. At issue here is whether or not police can search someone’s cellphone upon arrest. As usual, the Obama administration’s Justice Department is arguing against the citizenry, and in favor of the (police) state. Let’s not forget that the “Justice” Department also argued in favor of the police being able to place GPS tracking devices on people’s cars without a warrant back in 2011. Fortunately, the Supreme Court ruled against it.

Naturally, the feds in the current case will discuss all of the criminals they were able to bring to justice as a result of these privacy violations, but they will certainly not point out America’s current epidemic of unlawful arrests, as well as arrests for petty non-violent crimes that happen each and every day. For instance, let’s not forget statistics that came out last fall from the FBI that showed police make an arrest every two seconds in the USA. I covered this in detail in my post: Land of the Free: American Police Make an Arrest Every 2 Seconds in 2012.

That translates to 12.2 million arrests in 2012, only 521,196 of which were for violent crimes. So should cops be able to search cellphones of millions of Americans being arrested for non-violent crimes such as drug possession? Or what about the street artist in NYC who was unlawfully arrested for putting on a puppet show? Or the guy who’s house was raided by police for a parody Twitter account. Allowing cops to search cellphones upon arrest in a trigger happy police state seems barbaric, immoral and downright stupid to me.

Furthermore, isn’t it interesting that the feds appear so obsessed with taking away your civil liberties to catch petty criminals, yet they couldn’t put a single banker behind bars for the far more egregious crime of destroying the U.S. economy and ruining millions of lives?

Here are some excerpts from The New York Times article to help you get up to speed on what’s at stake:

WASHINGTON — In a major test of how to interpret the Fourth Amendment in the digital age, the Supreme Court on Tuesday will consider two cases about whether the police need warrants to search the cellphones of the people they arrest.

“The implications of these cases are huge,” said Orin S. Kerr, a law professor at George Washington University, noting that about 12 million people are arrested every year, often for minor offenses, and that about 90 percent of Americans have cellphones.

continue reading

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Tonight on The Independents: Mystery Meat Wednesday, With Ralph Nader, Bill Nye the Science Guy, Melissa Francis, Paul Mecurio…Talking Executions, Corporate Welfare, Asteroids, Benghazi, Economic Malaise, and National Honesty Day

I just, I mean, yeah, me neither. |||Tonight’s episode of The
Independents
(Fox Business Network, 9 p.m. ET, 6 p.m. PT)
will continue the recent trend toward WTF (Winning the Future!)
juxtapositions on
Wednesdays
, as an interview with
Obama-impeacher
Ralph Nader transitions into a discussion on
Benghazi, asteroid scare-mongering (I hope!) with Bill Nye the
Science Guy presages a
National Honesty Day
round of mutual criticism among the
co-hosts, and so on.

Party Panelists are
Fox Business anchor
Melissa Francis and Wall
Street lawyer-turned comedian Paul Mecurio, who will
discuss Oklahoma’s
cinematically awful execution
, the U.S. economy’s
spectacularly sluggish growth
, Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s
pot-sweetening
in the Toyota relocation deal, and the
high cost of regulation
.

Speaking of Melissa Francis, she participated in an
Independents real-or-fake contest about horrifying
government laws and regulations last Friday:

Follow The Independents on Facebook at http://ift.tt/QYHXdB;
follow on Twitter @ independentsFBN, and
click on this page
for more video of past segments.

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What To Look For In Today’s FOMC Statement

Today’s FOMC announcement may be one of the more anticlimatic (if long-winded) in a long time: consensus largely expects the taper to continue by another $10 billion, and the Fed will, erroneously, suggest that the economy is growing at a “modest” pace (if only one ignores such things as a complete collapse in US GDP growth due to harsh weather: who knew that all it takes to stop a $17 trillion juggernaut economy was cold winter weather), but it doesn’t mean there can’t be surprises. Courtesy of Bloomberg, here is a list of the key things to look for in today’s statement.

  • Steady Tapering: With the labor market and economy showing signs of improvement, the FOMC will probably trim its monthly bond buying by $10 billion, to $45 billion, according to Michael Hanson, senior U.S. economist at Bank of America Corp. in New York. It would be the Fed’s fourth straight reduction by that amount.

    “We continue to see a high hurdle to changing the tapering pace,” Hanson said in a research note. “This is a meeting for Fed officials to consolidate the policy stance they have developed this year.”

  • Green Shoots: The FOMC will probably say the economy is gaining strength after harsh winter weather depressed growth, said Thomas Simons, an economist at New York-based Jefferies LLC. Growth stalled to a 0.1 percent annualized rate in the first quarter as exports dropped, according to data from the Commerce Department. Consumer spending rose more than forecast, propelled by the biggest gain in services in 14 years.

    “We’re looking for perhaps a modest upgrade to the economic outlook,” Simons said. Retail sales in March rose by the most since September 2012, and private employment exceeded the pre-recession peak for the first time.

  • Shaky housing: At the same time, the FOMC may refer to signs of a slowdown in housing, Hanson said. Sales of new homes in March dropped 14.5 percent, Commerce Department data showed last week. Home prices in 20 U.S. cities rose at a slower pace in the year ended February, with the S&P/Case-Shiller index of property values increasing 12.9 percent for the smallest 12-month gain since August. Rising mortgage rates and the harsh winter have restrained demand.

    “It is possible that the statement hints at more concern by the Fed about the pace of recovery in the housing market,” Hanson said. “If so, markets would likely see this assessment as dovish.”

  • Policy clarity: Fed officials may discuss how to improve their guidance on the future path of the benchmark interest rate, without making any changes at this meeting, said Michael Feroli, chief U.S. economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. in New York and a former Fed economist.

    “While qualitative guidance may be subject to further refining later this year, an adjustment seems unlikely this early,” Neil Dutta, head of U.S. economics at Renaissance Macro Research in New York, said in a report.




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San Francisco May Wind Up Paying Residents to Snitch on Neighbors Using Airbnb

Here’s an annoying new twist on “if you see
something, say something”: Some influential San
Franciscans are proposing that the city start paying snitches

to report neighbors who may be renting out spaces via Airbnb.

Airbnb, which
launched in San Francisco, matches up travelers with local
residents who have space—be it a couch, a spare bedroom, or a whole
place—to rent out for a few nights or a few weeks. 

A ballot measure backed by former city Planning Commissioner
Doug Engmann would ban these temporary rentals in any San Francisco
neighborhood not marked for commercial zoning. It would also
require hosts to get permission from landlords or homeowners
associations, enact insurance requirements for hosts, and—most
controversially—set up a financial reward system for residents who
rat out neighbors violating the law.

The language of the proposal isn’t available yet, but
Engmann said  it will likely match existing city laws that
financially reward citizens for reporting various crimes. “Right
now, it’s totally unregulated, and the law is being violated,”
Engmann
told Venture Beat
. “I have a real problem with
businesses that basically build a revenue model on encouraging
their hosts to do illegal activities—that’s basically what Airbnb’s
business model is.”

You could put it like that. Or you could say Airbnb
built a revenue model on encouraging their hosts to do legal
activities that freaked out politicians (and well-connected
competitors) enough to ban them.

Airbnb rentals are often much cheaper than hotels and nicer than
hostels, which makes it and similar sites (like VRBO) quite
attractive to travelers. These sites are also good for homeowners
and renters, who can make extra cash off temporarily unused space.
But politicians aren’t huge fans, because they facilitate
transactions between individuals without government regulators
getting a say or a cut. For more on New York’s Airbnb battle, check
out this 2013 video from Reason TV. 

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Oklahoma’s Horrific Botched Execution Could Have Been Prevented

Last night, a horrific scene played out at the
Oklahoma State Penitentiary as prison officials attempted to carry
out the first of what was supposed to have been a double
execution. 

At 6:23 p.m., the execution began for Clayton Lockett,
convicted in 1999 of killing 19-year-old Stephanie Neiman
.

Five minutes after a cocktail of lethal drugs was injected,
Lockett began shivering, breathing deep, blinking, and gritting his
teeth. Seven minutes into the execution, Lockett alerted prison
officials that he was still conscious. Ten minutes into the
execution, prison officials announced that he was finally
unconscious. Thirteen minutes in, Lockett moved his head from side
to side and then lifted it off of the bed. Fifteen minutes in,
Lockett was mumbling, breathing heavily, and appeared to be
struggling. Sixteen minutes in, Lockett said “man” out loud, and
tried to get up. Following this, a female prison official told
horrified eyewitnesses, “We are going to lower the blinds
temporarily.” The blinds were never lifted.

Minutes after the blinds went down, the director of prisons told
eyewitnesses there had been a “vein failure” and that he was using
his authority to issue a stay of execution. Less than a half hour
later, after the director of prisons admitted the execution had
been botched, Lockett was pronounced dead from what officials said
was a heart attack.

Shortly after Lockett’s grisly death, Oklahoma Governor Mary
Fallin (R) issued an executive order granting a 14-day stay for
stay of execution for Charles Warner, the inmate who was scheduled
to be executed two hours after Lockett. Warner’s execution is now
scheduled for May 13.

In her
press release
, Governor Fallin said that she had asked the
Oklahoma Department of Corrections “to conduct a full review of
Oklahoma’s execution procedures to determine what happened and why”
during Lockett’s botched execution.

Executions in other states have been botched before, but what
makes what happened in Oklahoma last night so particularly
grotesque is that it could have, and should have, been
prevented.

Over the past several months, questions had been raised over the
constitutionality of the state’s lethal injection secrecy law,
which allowed state officials to prevent the disclosure of any
information about the drugs used in lethal injections. Lawyers for
condemned inmates argued that without being able to know even the
most basic information about these drugs, it would be impossible to
verify whether or not the executions carried out would comport with
the Eighth Amendment of the Constitution, which prohibits cruel and
unusual punishment.

On April 21, the Oklahoma Supreme Court stayed the executions of
Lockett and Warner, which were scheduled to take place on April 22
and April 29, so that the justices could evaluate the legality of
Oklahoma’s secrecy law.

In an unprecedented move, Governor Mary Fallin proclaimed on
April 22 that Oklahoma’s executive branch would not honor the state
Supreme Court’s stays of execution, and issued an executive
order
that granted a seven-day stay of execution for Clayton
Lockett. 

Even more shocking, a Republican state representative, Mike
Christian, introduced
impeachment proceedings
on April 23 against the five state
Oklahoma Supreme Court justices who had voted for the stays of
execution, stating that the justices had used “unsupportable
arguments regarding constitutional rights.”

On April 24, the Oklahoma Supreme Court caved to political
pressure, and declared that the state’s injection secrecy law was
constitutional, allowing the botched execution to proceed on April
29 as Governor Fallin ordered.

Besides the questions over the constitutionality of the state’s
secrecy law, concerns had also been raised over the state’s
essentially experimental three-drug execution cocktail, which
included the drugs midazolam, vecuronium bromide, and potassium
chloride.

This drug combination has only been used once before – in
Florida. However, Florida’s protocol called for five times more
midazolam than Oklahoma’s, which led some to predict the execution
might not be effective. Because these drugs were obtained through
secret means and information about them was protected under the
state’s secrecy law, there was no oversight from experts on the
quality of the drugs.

Medical experts warned Oklahoma officials of the possibility of
a botched execution, and defense attorneys asked them to open up
the lethal injection process to review by the courts, doctors, and
the public because of the dangers of this untested drug
combination. It really should come as no surprise that this
execution played out as it did.

If the state wasn’t obsessed with killing these inmates so
quickly and recklessly, and instead allowed the process to be
transparent and open for review, Clayton Lockett’s botched
execution could have been prevented.

Instead, the state elevated an unsympathetic killer to a symbol
of what the death penalty has become in states that are adopting
secretive and experimental execution methods: a reckless
abandonment of the rule of law.

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Poll Shows Strong Non-Interventionist Mood Among American Public

no more smoke filled back roomsA new Wall Street Journal/NBC News
poll shows 47 percent of respondents saying the United States
should be “less
active
” in global affairs. The Wall Street Journal

describes the results
as a “marked change from past decades,”
but the poll provides some data from previous decades, which may
partially belie that notion.

The polls in 1995 and 1997 found 34 percent of Americans wanting
the U.S. to be “less active” and, crucially, just 17 percent
supporting the U.S. being “more active.” This time, 19 percent of
respondents wanted the U.S. more active. A plurality in the 1995
and 1997 polls (47 percent and 46 percent) thought the U.S. should
continue its current level of activity.

The numbers did change rather drastically in the (presumably
post-9/11) 2001 poll, which found 37 percent in support of the U.S.
being more active and just 14 percent to be less active. Even then
a plurality, 44 percent, believed the level of U.S. activity in
global affairs was just right. After 13 years of escalating
interventionism by the U.S. around the world (Iraq,
and
Afghanistan
, and
Pakistan
, and
Somalia
, and
Libya
, and the
rest of Africa
, and the “Asia
pivot
“), it shouldn’t be a surprise that supporting U.S.
activity in global affairs at current levels finds the support of
only 30 percent of respondents in the latest poll.

As I pointed out in my column
yesterday
, President Obama has been able to maneuver his
foreign policy politically in such a way as to maintain the pillars
of interventionism while reshaping the domestic perception of
American activity abroad just enough to run as a kind of “anti-war”
candidate not only in 2008 but in 2012. It appeared last summer he
was ready to plunge into a
military intervention in Syria
, pulled back at the last minute
by a John Kerry gaffe exploited for diplomatic purposes by
Russia.

Other recent polls show the American non-interventionist mood
extending to specific situations, which is not always so. A

recent Reason poll
found 58 percent of respondents wanting the
U.S. to stay out of Ukraine altogether. The prospect of war in
Syria wasn’t popular last summer either; a
Reason poll last year
found 64 percent of respondents believing
airstrikes in Syria were not necessary to protect U.S. interests.
Nearly half believed the Washington political establishment wanted
war more than they did. An ABC News/Washington Post poll
last year found a record 67 percent of Americans believing the war
in Afghanistan was not worth fighting. That war continues.

The Wall Street Journal also noted that its results
crossed party lines: self-identified Democrats and Republicans want
the U.S. less involved in global affairs. The last two times
around, Democrats chose a candidate who talked peace but whose
policies never matched and Republicans chose candidates who played
into that narrative while trying to out-warmonger Obama.
Non-interventionism ought to be popular on the campaign trail,
although as the American electorate should know by now, given
recent history, not every candidate vehicle will be
authentic
.

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“People’s Republic Of Donetsk” Unveils Independence Referendum Set For May 11th

As we showed in the map earlier, the spread of pro-Russian-held cities is rapid across eastern Ukraine and it seems things are reaching a very dangerous head very quickly. As RIA reports, the Central Election Commission of the “Donetsk People’s Republic” has agreed to hold a referendum (covering 55 territorial election commissions, more than two thousand polling stations, and more than two million ballots) on May 11th. Citizens will answer one simple question, “Do you support the act of the proclamation of independence of the Donetsk State People’s Republic?” As RIA adds, leadership have stated that region of Donetsk will not vote in the May 25 presidential election in Ukraine if the majority of residents support independence.

 

RIA reports that the Central Election Commission “Donetsk People’s Republic” formed the referendum 55 territorial election commissions, and more than two thousand polling stations, published more than two million ballots, according to RIA Novosti, the CEC Chairman, “the People’s Republic of Donetsk” Roman Lyagin.

We organize the referendum, preparation for the meeting less than a month. During this time, much has been done: we formed today 55 TECs and 2000 279 plots. Process that the state is held over three months, we have been in the past month” – he said.

 

The referendum will be held in Donetsk region on May 11. Citizens will have to answer the question: “Do you support the act of the proclamation of independence of the Donetsk State People’s Republic?”.

Turnout is expected to reach 70 percent of voters area.

According to the head of the CEC, the funds for a vote there. “We are holding a referendum on popular initiative, the budget is minimal. This donation of ordinary people,” – said Lyagin.

 

According to him, to print newsletters, you need 100 000 hryvnia, the basic costs of buying paper. He also clarified that the devices for printing ballots “were provided by our friends, partners, we did not buy them.”

 

The referendum results will be announced on May 12.

 

Activists are sure it will be just the beginning of the path. “We’ll get right to self-determination and decide how we want to see your region.

This is a problem for the current Ukraine government – as another major region of their country fades away from their control…

The eastern Ukrainian region of Donetsk will not vote in the May 25 presidential election in Ukraine if the majority of residents support independence in a referendum two weeks earlier, a protest leader said Wednesday.

 

We have no plans to take part in our neighbor’s election,” said Denis Pushilin, a leader of the self-proclaimed People’s Republic of Donetsk.

 

 

Moscow has repeatedly expressed doubts about the legitimacy of upcoming presidential elections in Ukraine, saying they violate international laws and urging Kiev to take into consideration the demands of all citizens in the country.

 

In the meantime, we showed the map earlier of what regions are currently under separatist control, but as the following map shows, there is a growing number of regions that “at risk”…


Source: @ukroblogger

So, now what will Washington do?




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