Month: June 2014

The VA scandal was just the beginning.

According to Internal documents obtained by New York Times, US military healthcare is “a system in which scrutiny is sporadic and avoidable errors are chronic.” As the NYT reports In Military Care, a Pattern of Errors but Not Scrutiny, “the military system has consistently had higher than expected rates of harm and complications in two central parts of its business — maternity care and surgery.”

Among the findings:

• More than 50,000 babies are born at military hospitals each year, and they are twice as likely to be injured during delivery as newborns nationwide, the most recent statistics show. And their mothers were more likely to hemorrhage after childbirth than mothers at civilian hospitals, according to a 2012 analysis conducted for the Pentagon.
• In surgery, half of the system’s 16 largest hospitals had higher than expected rates of complications over a recent 12-month period, the American College of Surgeons found last year. Four of the busiest hospitals have performed poorly on that metric year after year.

As the NYT observes, “based on Pentagon studies, court records, analyses of thousands of pages of data, and interviews with current and former military health officials and workers, indicates that the military lags behind many civilian hospital systems in protecting patients from harm. The reasons, military doctors and nurses said, are rooted in a compartmentalized system of leadership, a culture of interservice secrecy and an overall failure to make patient safety a top priority.”

One would think that when caring for the nation’s veterans, the healthcare system – whose very existence one can say is a direct function of the US military’s intervention around the globe – would pay particular attention. One would be wrong:  the military’s reports show a steady stream of the sort of mistakes that patient-safety programs are designed to prevent. 

The most common errors are strikingly prosaic — the unread file, the unheeded distress call, the doctor on one floor not talking to the doctor on another. But there are also these, sprinkled through the Pentagon’s 2011 and 2012 patient-safety reports:

• A viable fetus died after a surgeon operated on the wrong part of the mother’s body.
• A 41-year-old woman’s healthy thyroid gland was removed because someone else’s biopsy result had been recorded on her chart.
• A 54-year-old retired officer suffered acute kidney failure and permanent hearing loss after an incorrect dose of chemotherapy.
• In 2011, 50 unexpected deaths were identified but only 25 analyses submitted.
• The next year, the center was informed of 110 deaths but received only 44 root-cause analyses.
• In 2013, the report documented 79 deaths and 31 root-cause analyses.

The NYT slams a system rife with abuse: “The patient-safety system is broken,” Dr. Mary Lopez, a former staff officer for health policy and services under the Army surgeon general, said in an interview.

“It has no teeth,” she added. “Reports are submitted, but patient-safety offices have no authority. People rarely talk to each other. It’s ‘I have my territory, and nobody is going to encroach on my territory.’ ”

In an internal report in 2011, the Pentagon’s patient-safety analysts offered this succinct conclusion about military health care: “Harm rate — unknown.”

In short, America’s veterans and military forces: proud recipients of the worst health care America has to offer.

We sincerely urge US veterans to avoid the following military hospitals like the plague.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1ofyfiL Tyler Durden

Submitted by Andy Sirkis via The Ludwig von Mises Institute,

Despite claims to the contrary in the mass media, Japan’s economy is continuing to suffer mightily under the leadership of Prime Minister Abe Shinzo. Abe is from a famous family and he’s a convincing talker, so he was able to bamboozle people into believing that he could make Japan prosper with his three arrows. These metaphorical arrows stand for “monetary stimulus,” “fiscal stimulus,” and “structural reform.”

When Abe was elected using his “three arrows” symbolism to attract votes, I thought the Japanese people were beginning to believe in magic. Perhaps they were gullible or a little lazy in thinking or thought they would receive “free stuff” from Abe. No matter, Abe became Prime Minister in December 2012 and shot off his arrows.

With his “monetary stimulus” arrow, Abe arm-twisted the central bank into doubling the money supply in just a few months time. I could just imagine Abe rubbing his palms together and fiendishly muttering “We’re going to be rich, rich, RICH!” All that the central bank had to do was type a few numbers into their computers to make this happen. Naturally, the newly created money was distributed to politically powerful banks.

How did all of this money creation affect the common people? Despite claims that Japan has less than 2 percent inflation, I can assure you that the prices of many goods, especially imported goods like energy, have increased dramatically since the monetary stimulus arrow was fired. Wages, on the other hand, have remained depressed. With higher expenses to pay, Japanese people can’t afford other goods they would like to buy and businesses can’t afford to raise wages, hire, or expand. Only Abe’s bankster friends have profited from this scheme by speculating in the stock market with the counterfeited money that had been credited to their accounts with the central bank computer.

Japanese people are mostly smart enough to realize that typing numbers into a computer can’t make an economy strong, yet they just haven’t figured out that Abe’s monetary stimulus is nothing but a sneaky counterfeiting scheme.

At the same time as the monetary stimulus arrow doubled the money supply, Abe and his gang used their fiscal stimulus arrow to enormously increase spending on government works projects. Unlike capitalists who at least try to invest productive enterprises, the government allocates money based on pull and other political considerations. Wasting money on things like a new sewer system in Kiev, replacing the perfectly good Olympic stadium with an expensive new Olympic stadium, and handing out plum contracts for highways to nowhere will never generate a profit. Government investment is more like consumption, often creating a 100-percent loss.

These money-losing projects weigh heavily on the people. After all, they will have to pay for this waste in the form of higher taxes and higher debt service. Even if by some miracle the fiscal spending created a profit, the money wouldn’t be distributed to the taxpayer. Heads you lose, tails you lose.

Most Japanese people are smart enough to realize that investing in things that lose money can’t make an economy strong, yet they just haven’t figured out that Abe’s fiscal stimulus is nothing but a sneaky scheme to enrich his well-connected friends. After nearly twenty-five years and fifteen rounds of fiscal stimulus spending, you’d have to be totally bamboozled to still be a believer in this failed Keynesian claptrap.

To pay for his “fiscal stimulus” arrow Abe decided to raise taxes and take the money he needed by force. He raised car taxes and income taxes and he raised sales taxes by 60 percent, but he also announced plans to raise sales taxes by 100 percent. He is considering increasing taxes on married people and poor people. With each tax increase and threat of further tax increases, the economy has weakened further.

And what of Abe’s third arrow, “structural reform”? No one knows what this political slogan actually means. It sounds like some modern day form of Soviet era Glasnost, but there’s been no significant deregulation or loosening of government controls that have long stifled the Japanese economy. We do know that Abe has spent a great deal of effort making enemies with the neighbors. Effectively, Abe’s aggressiveness in foreign affairs is the real third arrow.

Abe has severely damaged relations between the peaceful and industrious Japanese people and their business trading partners in the neighboring countries of China, Russia, and South Korea. Business deals such as the effort to build a gas pipeline between Japan and Russia have been scrapped. Profitable trading in South Korea and especially China has been crushed by Abe’s undiplomatic actions. Via his confrontation with China and sanctioning of Russia, Abe has recklessly followed the dictates of the warmongering US government, all to the detriment of the Japanese people.

Abe’s arrows have been praised in the media by the economically ignorant, the politically motivated, and those who believe prosperity is parceled out by some all powerful shaman. However, the arrows, seen in the harsh light of reality, turn out to be counterfeiting schemes, “investing” in money losing ventures, taking money from the productive, and squabbling with the neighbors. These counterproductive political actions won’t ever result in a stronger economy and have instead left the Japanese people with a crushing debt and tax burden. Don’t get taken in by the hogwash you read in mainstream media propaganda pieces.

Abe’s policies are complete and utter failures.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1q2DDak Tyler Durden

It is no secret that the extremist al-Qaeda Jihadist group known as ISIS for short, which in the span of weeks has overrun the northern part of Iraq, has grand ambitions to not only preserve its power in the north and central regions, as well as the border with Syria, but to ultimately proceed south where not only Baghdad is located but also the great energy infrastructure of the country: “the grand prize” for ISIS as it would make the extremist group viable and financially self-sustaining.

But how and when will this “Battle for Baghdad” take place?

For the answer we go to a backgrounder prepared by the Institute for the Study of War titled, as expected, “ISIS Battle Plan for Baghdad” which lays it out in detail.

* * *

There are indications that ISIS is about to launch into a new offensive in Iraq. ISIS published photos of a military parade through the streets of Mosul on June 24, 2014 showcasing U.S. military equipment, including armored vehicles and towed artillery systems. ISIS reportedly executed another parade in Hawijah on June 26, 2014.2 These parades may be a demonstration of force to reinforce their control of these urban centers. They may also be a prelude to ISIS troop movements, and it is important to anticipate where ISIS may deploy these forces forward. Meanwhile, ISIS also renewed the use of suicide bombers in the vicinity of Baghdad. An ISIS bomber with a suicide vest (SVEST) attacked the Kadhimiya shrine in northern Baghdad on June 26, 2014,3 one of the four holy sites in Iraq that Iran and Shi’a militias are most concerned to protect. ISIS also incorporated an SVEST into a complex attack in Mahmudiyah, south of Baghdad, on June 25, 2014 in a zone primarily controlled by the Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Shi’a militias on the road from Baghdad to Karbala.4 These attacks are demonstrations that ISIS has uncommitted forces in the Baghdad  Belts that may be brought to bear in new offensives. ISIS’s offensive has not culminated, and the ISIS campaign for Iraq is not over. Rather, as Ramadan approaches, their main offensive is likely imminent.

ISIS seeks to create an Islamic Emirate that overcomes the modern states of Iraq and Syria. The Syrian war began without ISIS, but ISIS succeeded in instigating a sectarian war in Iraq in order to destabilize the state. ISIS has systematically targeted sectarian fault lines in Iraq over the past two years in order to precipitate a civil war, but ISIS also intends to break the Iraqi state permanently so that it cannot recover. This is essential in order to protect the Islamic Emirate from external attack. ISIS may not seek to make Baghdad its capital; Baghdad is far from the center of Iraq’s Sunni heartland and sits along the contested corridor that separates the Sunni and Shi’a majority lands in Iraq. Rather, ISIS likely seeks to destroy the government of Iraq, to destroy the Iraqi Army, and to ensure that Baghdad does not remain a viable Shi’a capital. It is more reasonable to expect that ISIS has a battle plan for Baghdad than to presume that ISIS would not create one because they recognize how difficult the task of controlling the city.

ISIS now has artillery and other indirect fire capability, in addition to heavy machine guns. This is visible in their social media coverage of their acquisitions in Ninewa. ISIS can induce a surface-to-air threat against IA aircraft at Balad Airbase, Taji Base, and Baghdad International Airport that effectively neutralizes Iraq’s air assets. ISIS can also attack fortified positions in downtown Baghdad through medium-range direct fire via the artillery pieces it has seized. ISIS likely intends to strike the Green Zone and other fortress targets that have adequate ground protection. ISIS likely has presence inside Baghdad that can facilitate accurate fire through visual observation, and the emergence of SVESTS on June 26 in lieu of the more detectable SVBIEDs likely illustrates its adaptation to the new Shi’a militia environment. ISIS may also layer explosive attacks through SVBIEDs against checkpoints or infrastructure in order to open temporary movement corridors that will permit ground assault against targets in Baghdad. ISIS may still be designing and sequencing its plan for Baghdad, but from a threat perspective, the most dangerous outcomes that ISIS could precipitate against U.S. interests in Baghdad are feasible. ISIS’s revived capability for spectacular attacks in Baghdad and its ability to harness medium range artillery comes just as the U.S. has placed 300 personnel in country, in addition to those essential personnel already stationed at the Embassy. There is no safe place in Baghdad against the threat of ISIS.

A ground campaign to deny Ramadi and Baghdad to ISIS in the near term and to begin to retake lost territory is critical to overcome the offensive spirit and message of victory that are currently fueling ISIS. The Sunni population in Iraq may very well unite in order to counter ISIS deep within the Sunni heartland if they perceive that ISIS can be defeated, and that their tribes will be protected from ISIS and Iran. The Sunnis are not looking to the government of Iraq for these assurances right now, because they perceive more than ever that Maliki’s government is part of an Iranian axis. Syrian air strikes into Iraq’s Sunni lands only underscore this point. With no army to protect them, and no army that can outmatch ISIS on the ground, the Sunnis are faced with an existential crisis on two-fronts: the threat of ISIS, and the threat of Iran, both assaulting Iraq’s Sunnis with military force. The war in Iraq and the war in Syria have the potential to engulf the region, while ISIS usurps the terrain lost by states that may never recover their former likeness.

* * *

There is much more in the full report below (pdf link):

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1nT1c0S Tyler Durden

For a week or two, the 'news' appeared to confirm the 'hope'; faith that Q1's dysphoria would emerge phoenix-like into Q2 euphoria as a 'hibernating' American public emerging from their weather-shelter and spent-spent-spent all their borrowed-borrowed-borrowed money. That ended last week! Despite the dramatically low volume liftathon in stocks since the FOMC meeting, major risk markets around the world are cracking. European bonds and stocks had a bad week, Treasuries rallied the most in 6 weeks, and the key to it all, USDJPY, slipped to 4 week lows. Why? As the chart below shows, US macro data is collapsing again (right on cue) and stands at 2-month lows… (and is the worst-performing macro nation in the world this year!)

 

 

But it's not just top-down that's "broken"…

as Bottom-up Fundamentals are no longer the driver for credit

or equity markets…

 

Source: Bloomberg and Citi

Bonus Chart: Guess which country has the worst performing "Macro" this year relative to 'exuberant' expectations… USA USA USA

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1qXGSSe Tyler Durden

By now it is widely known that with the VIX cratering to levels not seen since 2007, and the “old” VIX, the one based on OEX calls and puts, plunging to record low, complacency, confidence (in the Fed’s central planning) and a lack of any fear is pervasive.

Why is this a concern? One simple reason: as Princeton professor Markus Brunnermeier explains, this is the so-called “paradox of volatility” – “When measured market volatility is low, people feel empowered to take on more leverage and more liquidity mismatch, which leaves the whole system more prone to sharp movements. This dynamic occurred during the “Great Moderation.” During that period,  fundamental and asset volatility was generally low and market participants took on much more leverage.”

Of course, what he defines the paradox of volatility is merely a rephrasing of Minsky. As Goldman’s Charles Himmelberg explains, when asked if low volatility is an ominous signal, he says:

“It should make us worry. We have a lot of historical experience with the so-called “Minsky framework” of how credit cycles play out: a period of low volatility tends to generate complacency on the part of investors, corporations, households, and regulators as they become more and more comfortable with the notion that the volatility that they have recently experienced is a thing of the past and not likely to be repeated in the near term. As a result, they take on more leverage, which leaves them even more vulnerable when volatility inevitably rears its ugly head again and valuations decline. Recession ensues, its severity depending on the degree of imbalances. Today, the incentives for leverage are arguably as strong as they were in 2004-2006.”

In other words, we have nothing to fear but the lack of fear itself.

However, since everyone and their pundit grandmother has opined on volatility in the past month, we will say no more and instead of Wall Street, we will do a Wallace Stevens, with 13 ways of looking at record low volatility, in charts.

 

But while vol in vritually all asset classes is crashing, there is one place where uncertainty it is going up:

Source: Goldman

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1qXw3zJ Tyler Durden

“It is fair to say that this particular constellation of issues, problems if you will, has never been faced before at these levels. Never,” warns Chris Martenson (of The Crash Course) but what does he mean when he says “Great change is upon us.” This brief condensed look at The Three ‘E’s of – Economy, Energy, and Environment are all one needs to understand the current situation is anything but a sustainable status quo (no matter how reassured by record high stock prices the general public may be).

 

 

So, what do I mean when I say, “Massive change is upon us…”? Well, here’s where we need to burrow into the three “E”s, which is where we’ll spend the rest of our time in the Crash Course.

 

The first “E” is the Economy, which is the lens through which the Crash Course looks at everything. Within the Economy, there are four primary areas of concern: Exponential money, the first-ever collapse of a global credit binge, an aging population, and a national failure to save. If it isn’t clear to you what these mean, don’t worry; we’ll be discussing each of these in detail.

The next “E” is Energy, and there we will discuss what Peak Oil implies for an economic system that is based on continual expansion. This topic is important enough that I should dedicate the entire Crash Course to it, but I can’t, and I won’t.

And finally, the third “E”, the Environment, will be exerting its own unknowable but certainly significant economic burdens, due to shrinking resources and other systemic pressures, at the same time that the other two “E”s will be clamoring for your money and attention.

The story that I am going to weave for you cuts across all three “E”s and will make the claim that our monetary system is badly out of step with reality and will suffer severe instability and possibly collapse as a result.

It is fair to say that this particular constellation of issues, problems if you will, has never been faced before at these levels.

Never.

Whether you find this terrifying or exhilarating is simply a matter of your mindset. One key towards easing your mind is being armed with accurate and detailed information. That is what the Crash Course will deliver.

When viewed individually, each one of the sub-areas on each of the “E”s could entirely consume your entire attention. I am going to make the claim that these problems are so intertwined that they cannot be solved in isolation. All three “E”s will need to be considered at the same time.

How are they linked? By something very powerful that we desperately need to understand a lot better. Please join me for Chapter 3: Exponential Growth.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1vikiBB Tyler Durden