Month: July 2014

Be careful what you wish for. As the Fed imbibes a sense of confidence in its ability to manage any bumps in the road on its perpetual bubble-blowing mission through the use of macro-prudential policies (big words that truly mean nothing) as stock valuations surge and the repo market is experiencing severe problems; it can always point to VIX as an indicator that all is well in the world and no real risk exists. The problem is – the world is beginning to wake up to the ‘odd’ micro-structure of the US equity markets and how ‘dark pools’ are beginning to dominate trading volume. As Barclays faces major legal problems over its alleged dark pool lies, lies, and more lies, the Fed must be growing concerned… as the following chart shows JPMorgan indicates there is evidence of an inverse relationship between equity volatility and the share of off-exchange trading.

Off-Exchange trading has soared since the financial crisis…

Off exchange trading rose sharply in 2009 with volumes almost doubling vs. 2008. But off-exchange volumes declined since then for three consecutive years i.e. during 2010, 2011 and 2012. The average daily volume of off-exchange share transactions rose in both 2013 (+6.4%) and in 2014 (+6.1%). This compares to -8.9% YoY change in exchange trading volumes in 2013 and +3.3% in 2014 YTD. That is off-exchange trading has grown much faster than exchange trading over the past two years. As a result the share of off-exchange volumes as percentage of total equity trading volumes jumped in 2014 to 37%, the highest ever (Figure 2).

 

 

YTD 2.4bn shares per day were traded off-exchange vs. 4.1bn shares per day in traditional exchanges. For comparison, in 2008 2.1bn shares per day were traded off exchange vs. 7.7bn on exchanges. But, we note that the improvement in off exchange volumes over the past two years does little to alter a picture of still subdued overall equity trading volumes.

With dark pools dominating…

As mentioned above dark pools or ATS represent only a part of off-exchange trading and reporting has started only recently in May 2014. For the two weeks commencing May 19th and May26th FINRA reported an ATS trading volume of 0.78bn shares per day which accounted for 39% of off-exchange (TRF) volumes for these two weeks and 15% of all trading volumes (on and off exchange) for that week also. That is, dark pools or ATS account for around 39% of off-exchange trading activity and 15% of all equity trading volumes.

But there is a relationship between stock volatility and off-exchange trading…

We find evidence of an inverse relationship between equity volatility and the share of off-exchange trading.

 

 

This is shown in Figure 3 which suggests that big drops in equity volatility in the past were associated with shifts towards off exchange trading. One potential explanation is that price competition intensifies when volatility goes down, as overall volumes also decline, causing a shift in equity trading towards lower cost off-exchange venues.

*  *  *

Simply put – the end of dark pools would be the end of the complacent benign risk markets that the Fed enjoys control over…

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1xFPm19 Tyler Durden

With GM recalling virtually every car it has made since emerging from bankruptcy, another maker of flaming paperweights has quietly managed to slip through the cracks of public attention. So it was perhaps well-timed, if only for GM, that over the weekend we not only learned, but saw footage, of what happens when a Tesla is involved in a Police chase that results in a lamp post crash. Nothing short of complete obliteration.

As KTLA reported, “a stolen Tesla involved in a fiery crash split into two following a pursuit that ended in West Hollywood early Friday, leaving seven people injured, police said. The incident began when police received a call from a Tesla dealership stating that an individual was “tampering or messing with” one of the vehicles, according to Sgt. Campbell with the Los Angeles Police Department’s Pacific Division.  Officers responded to the dealership and a pursuit began at about 12:45 a.m., Campbell said.

The good news, if only for Tesla car snatchers, “during the pursuit, the Tesla reached speeds of up to 100 mph. Also: better than a Bronco for aspiring wife murderers.

However, the car chase was not to last: the pursuit ended on La Brea Avenue between Fountain and Lexington avenues a short time later when the driver of the Tesla hit two other cars and a lamp post, Campbell said.

A witness told KTLA that the Tesla hit the pole and split in half, and that part of the vehicle landed on top of a white car.

“There were fires after that that broke out,” Eric Martinez said. “I saw the firefighters — like 25 firefighters – standing around the white car with the Jaws of Life.” Martinez added that at one point, explosions could be heard.

“We originally thought it was fireworks. Everybody thought it was fireworks that were just exploding,” he said.

And there you have another marketing opportunity: Optional fireworks flaming end: $995.99 extra.

The Tesla sure did not go quietly: in total, the Tesla collided with four vehicles, injuring a total of 6 victims, before splitting in two, according to the Los Angeles County Sheriff’s Department.

But the best news for the flaming paperweight: not even the driver managed to die.

The man driving the Tesla — who was ejected from the vehicle — was originally thought to have died, but he was resuscitated while en route to a hospital, according to a Sheriff’s Department news release.

 

Two LAPD officers were injured during the pursuit when their vehicle hit the center divider, according to LAPD Officer Bruce Borihanh.

 

The officers complained of pain and were taken to a local hospital, Borihanh said, adding that they were later released and did not sustain injuries.

And of course, as Bloomberg followed up, Tesla Motos, Inc. seemingly unable to grasp how its car could i) split in two and ii) proceed to explode in a fiery wreck, has said it wants to study the remnants of a stolen Model S sedan that split in half and burned after a high-speed chase and collision in Los Angeles.

“We’ve asked to take a look at the vehicle as soon as that’s possible,” Simon Sproule, a company spokesman, said in a phone interview. “There aren’t so many S’s involved in major crashes, and certainly not quite like this one, so we absolutely want to have a look to understand what happened.”

Indeed, a post mortem investigation is probably not a bad idea. And furthermore, if anything, recalling all those tens of thousands of Model S cars sold is probably not such a bad idea. After all just look at GM – after admitting its work product was absolutely abysmal, and the company didn’t care about the lives of its customers if it meant higher EPS, resulting in nearly 30 million recalls in 6 months, GM managed to sell more cars in June than any time since Lehman. It almost appears as if Americans, bored with their lives, and certainly the stock market, are eager to experience the excitement of a violent, flaming death.

As for the Tesla, a clip of what happened is below.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1n02DcM Tyler Durden

• Bond Anxiety in $1.6 Trillion Repo Market as Failures Soar (BBG), as reported first by Zero Hedge
• As Food Prices Rise, Fed Keeps a Watchful Eye (WSJ)
• Yellen’s Economy Echoes Arthur Burns More Than Greenspan (BBG)
• Draghi’s $1.4 Trillion Shot: Silver Bullet or Misfire? (BBG)
• Israel’s Netanyahu phones father of murdered Palestinian teen (Reuters)
• Ukraine says forces will press forward after taking rebel stronghold (Reuters)
• Goldman Sachs Brings Forward Rate Forecast as Treasuries Drop (BBG)… you mean rise?
• Super typhoon takes aim at Japan (Reuters)
• Kidnapped Nigerian girls ‘escape from Boko Haram abductors’ (Independent)
• Merkel says U.S. spying allegations are serious (Reuters)
• Chinese Tycoon Guo Copying Buffett Rises From Bread to Club Med (BBG)
• Samsung Electronics faces falling profits as succession looms (Reuters)
• G.M. OnStar Data Has Potential as Safety Tool (NYT) but not really
• The Future of the Workforce May Be Part-Time, Says Google CEO Larry Page (Recode)
• Shocking: Many Pick Electric Jolt Over Solitude in Study (BBG)
• Egypt to raise fuel prices by up to 78 percent from midnight (Reuters)
• Ex-Soviet minister and Georgia leader Shevardnadze dies (Reuters)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* Ukraine neared a final showdown with pro-Russia rebels on Sunday, after Kiev forced insurgents to retreat to the last major city they control and Moscow showed no signs of intervening to help them (http://on.wsj.com/1jXJ30Z)

* Hillary Clinton, a presumed presidential candidate for 2016, has made clear she wouldn’t be running for a de facto third Obama term. (http://on.wsj.com/TXugwu)

* Somali militants claimed responsibility Sunday for twin attacks in eastern Kenya that aid organizations said killed at least 22 people-the second such strike in the region in less than three weeks (http://on.wsj.com/VRpbr7)

* Expedia bid 703.1 million Australian dollars (US$657.2 million) for Wotif.com as the U.S. online-travel site widens its exposure to fast-growing Asia-Pacific markets (http://on.wsj.com/1moLBcv)

* Passengers boarding U.S.-bound flights at “certain overseas airports” may be asked to turn on electronic devices including cellphones, and won’t be allowed to bring on the plane any devices that are out of battery power, the Transportation Security Administration said Sunday (http://on.wsj.com/1lMhQ0I)

* The first criminal trial linked to the Boston Marathon bombing is slated to begin in Boston on Monday with opening statements expected in the case of a former college student accused of taking evidence from the alleged bomber’s dorm room (http://on.wsj.com/1moKUzU)

 

FT

Goldman Sachs is looking to capitalise on the domain of centuries-old private banks in Europe by services offered by its European wealth management business and offfering loans to rich clients in the region.

Growing security concerns in Iraq is rattling western banks, forcing them to tighten controls on clients’ funds and pull senior staff out of the country.

Spanish wireless networks provider Gowex was forced to declare bankruptcy and admit that the company’s head had falsified accounts for at least the past four years.

Rosneft is setting out long-term targets and its CEO Igor Sechin is openly talking about the Russian state oil producer’s large ambitions, although the U.S. government has imposed sanctions of its head and is threatening broader sanctions against the Russian oil industry.

A former JPMorgan Chase & Co trader has filed an appeal with a London tribunal court to challenge civil findings made by Britain’s financial watchdog against the bank over the “London Whale” debacle of 2012.

A committee of MPs has asked the most senior official at the Home Office for an explanation as it how his department lost 114 files relating to child sex abuse in Westminster in the 1980s.

 

NYT

* For most of America, Reno stirs images of worn-out casinos, strip clubs and quick divorces. But it is trying to change that reputation and reduce its reliance on gambling by taking advantage of its location and low taxes to gain a solid footing in the new economy. Instead of poker payouts, Reno now boasts of e-commerce ventures, an Apple data center and a testing ground for drones. It also hopes to attract a large factory to build batteries for Tesla’s electric vehicles. (http://nyti.ms/1myPzB1)

* As government regulators crack down on the financing of terrorists and drug traffickers, many big banks are abandoning the business of transferring money from the United States to other countries, moves that are expected to reverse years of declines in the cost of immigrants sending money home to their families. (http://nyti.ms/1r1Lftn)

* General Motors’ OnStar system provides streams of data about the performance of GM vehicles, but the automaker says little about how it uses this information to investigate problems. (http://nyti.ms/1qCnfhi)

* Twitter Inc’s top executive ranks have been transformed in the last year, from its general counsel to, most recently, its chief financial officer. But in one very important area of the company – Twitter’s ad business – the leadership has remained relatively untouched. (http://nyti.ms/1myQelL)

* The Obama administration on Sunday sought to play down new disclosures that the National Security Agency has swept up innocent and often personal emails from ordinary Internet users as it targets suspected terrorists in its global surveillance for potential threats. (http://nyti.ms/1r1LRiM)

* As Google engine restores links that it had removed to comply with a court order, its handling of the “right to be forgotten” becomes murkier. (http://nyti.ms/1xDCtot)

 

Hong Kong

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

— Mainland loan guarantors have found themselves ensnared in the woes of the underground banking sector following a fresh wave of bankruptcies. (bit.ly/1j7kjIC)

— Employee protection will be a key consideration for lawmakers deciding whether to support the introduction of U.S. style Chapter 11 bankruptcy legislation in Hong Kong, the South China Morning Post has been told. (bit.ly/1r1GY9b)

— Beijing has announced a new regulation designed to improve the central government’s tax collection from overseas mainland companies, including those controlled in Hong Kong. (bit.ly/1pTh4rk)

THE STANDARD

— Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah has voiced concern that the Legislative Council will not be able to complete vetting of the more than 50 funding requests and government bills with just a week left before the summer recess. (bit.ly/1qCiwMv)

— The Hong Kong Journalists Association has set up a self-censorship monitoring committee, after saying press freedom is facing its darkest period in decades. (bit.ly/1qCiDHU)

HONG KONG ECONOMIC JOURNAL

— Hong Kong Airlines is preparing to raise a combined US$500 million, which could be Hong Kong’s first initial public offering to raise funds in yuan and Hong Kong dollars, according to a source.

— Two second-hand apartments were sold for a record sum on Sunday for an estate in New Territories as demand for secondary units keeps rising due to limited supply.

HONG KONG ECONOMIC TIMES

— Ka-keung Chan, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury, said risks for the city’s real estate market have not subsided from two years ago and the government would not loosen property tightening measures after global hot money started flowing into Hong Kong recently.

MING PAO

— Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah said in his blog Hong Kong may record a “significant increase” for home prices in May.

 

China

PEOPLE’S DAILY

– China marks the 77th anniversary of the start of its anti-Japanese war on Monday, vowing that it will not let historical tragedy to repeat, the newspaper, which is the mouthpiece of the ruling Communist Part of China, said in an editorial.

CHINA DAILY

– Germany is willing to help China’s relatively backward western part achieve sustainable development during its ongoing urbanisation, Chancellor Angela Merkel said in the southwestern Chinese city of Chengdu on Sunday.

CHINA SECURITIES JOURNAL

– Chinese stock regulator’s move towards strengthening delisting rules and their implementation will help improve the health of the stock market and the quality of listed companies, analysts say.

 
– Speculation about new listings in China’s stock market will cause investors dearly and damage the health of the market, the newspaper said in a commentary.

SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS

– China is likely to relax rules on how asset managers can utilise their quotas under the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) programme, that permits overseas investors to use offshore yuan funds to invest in the mainland’s capital markets.

CHINA BUSINESS NEWS

– Chinese regulators have apparently stepped up their efforts to clamp down on inside trading and clean up the stock market with an announcement of more fund managers being handed over to police for irregularities, analysts say.

 

Britain

The Times

HINDUJAS URGE UK TO FINANCE MUMBAI-BANGALORE CORRIDOR

Britain’s wealthiest family has called on David Cameron to finance one of India’s most ambitious infrastructure projects to boost business ties between the countries.

CRACKDOWN ON CONMEN WHO USE FAKE GOVERNMENT WEBSITES

Five men have been arrested for allegedly running “copycat” government websites that dupe Britons into paying unnecessary “administration fees” when ordering new passports or car tax discs online.

REGIONS GET 6 BLN STG INJECTION FROM ‘ECONOMIC REVOLUTION’

Businesses and councils across England have been handed 6 billion pounds ($10.2 billion) of public money in what the government called a “revolution in the way our economy is run”.

The Guardian

EDF IN LINE FOR 800 MLN STG WINDFALL FROM SUBSIDY SCHEME TO KEEP LIGHTS ON

EDF, which operates most of Britain’s nuclear power stations, could be in line for an 800 million pound windfall via a loophole in a government subsidy scheme aimed at keeping the lights on at times of peak demand.

IMF CHIEF HINTS AT CUT IN GROWTH FORECASTS

Global economic activity should strengthen in the second half of the year and accelerate in 2015, although momentum could be weaker than expected, Christine Lagarde, head of the International Monetary Fund, said on Sunday, hinting at a slight cut in the fund’s growth forecasts.

The Telegraph

SNP’S ‘RETRIBUTION THREAT’ TO PRO-UK SCOTTISH FIRMS

Business leaders have been threatened with “retribution” by the SNP if they speak out against Scottish independence, it will be claimed on Monday.

Sky News

CBI’S RAKE BOWS OUT OF RACE FOR BARCLAYS JOB

The CBI president Sir Mike Rake has bowed out of the race to become the next chairman of Barclays, even as the bank attempts to contain the fallout from a string of new regulatory probes.

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ECONOMIC REPORTS

No major domestic economic reports scheduled for today.

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Acuity Brands (AYI) upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T
Alliance Holdings (AHGP) upgraded to Strong Buy from Market Perform at Raymond James
Applied Industrial (AIT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at BB&T
Applied Materials (AMAT) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan
Associated Banc-Corp (ASBC) upgraded to Market Perform at Raymond James
Century Aluminum (CENX) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
Charles Schwab (SCHW) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Raymond James
Devon Energy (DVN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
King Digital (KING) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at Piper Jaffray
Norcraft (NCFT) upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc
SeaWorld (SEAS) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Longbow
Southern Copper (SCCO) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital
Ultratech (UTEK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
Vantiv (VNTV) reinstated with an Overweight from Equal Weight at Barclays
Western Refining (WNR) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Williams-Sonoma (WSM) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill

Downgrades

Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
CDW Corporation (CDW) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
Cinemark (CNK) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley
Coeur Mining (CDE) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Enanta (ENTA) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at JMP Securities
GT Advanced (GTAT) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord
GT Advanced (GTAT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Insight Enterprises (NSIT) downgraded to Underperform at Raymond James
JAVELIN Mortgage (JMI) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Citigroup
Peabody (BTU) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Deutsche Bank
Regado Biosciences (RGDO) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Needham
Tidewater (TDW) downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley
UMB Financial (UMBF) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Raymond James

Initiations

Bazaarvoice (BV) coverage resumed with a Buy at B. Riley
Golar LNG (GLNG) initiated with a Buy at BofA/Merrill
Horizon Pharma (HZNP) assumed with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
MobileIron (MOBL) initiated with a Buy at Goldman
MobileIron (MOBL) initiated with a Buy at Stifel
MobileIron (MOBL) initiated with an Overweight at Barclays
MobileIron (MOBL) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Nordic American Offshore (NAO) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan
Nordic American Offshore (NAO) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse
Nordic American Offshore (NAO) initiated with an Overweight at Morgan Stanley
Rocket Fuel (FUEL) initiated with a Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Third Point Reinsurance (TPRE) assumed with a Neutral at Citigroup

COMPANY NEWS

Archer Daniels (ADM) announced plans to acquired WILD Flavors GmbH for EUR2.3B
Expedia (EXPE) said it will buy Australia’s Wotif Group for A$703M
Anglo American (AAUKY) to sell 50% interest in Lafarge Tarmac for minimum value of $1.5B to Lafarge (LFRGY)
SABMiller (SBMRY) to sell stake in Tsogo Sun Holdings through a combination of an institutional placing and a buy back buy Tsogo Sun following the completion of a strategic review

EARNINGS

Penford (PENX) reports Q3 EPS 24c, one estimate 21c

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Lion Capital demands Charney reinstated to American Apparel (APP), Bloomberg reports
American Apparel (APP) in financing talks with Standard General, WSJ reports
Amazon’s (AMZN) Luxembourg operations included in EU tax inquiry, WSJ reports
Microsoft taxes probed as EU questions Luxembourg, Bloomberg says
Boeing (BA) assesses damage to aircraft parts from train derailment, WSJ reports (BRK.A, SPR)
BHP Billiton (BHP) has six potential suitors looking at Nickel West unit, AFR reports
HSBC (HSBC) plans to shut Libyan operations, Bloomberg says
Google (GOOG) may have invested up to $500M to expand Shopping Express, Re/code says
Tesla (TSLA) to investigate fire in stolen Models S crash, Bloomberg says
DISH (DISH) could climb 20%, Barron’s says
PetSmart (PETM) could be smart bet, Barron’s says
Weight Watchers (WTW) still looks attractive, Barron’s says
Realogy (RLGY) could rebound to about $48, Barron’s says
Qualcomm (QCOM), NVIDIA (NVDA), Apple (AAPL), Google (GOOG) could benefit from connected cars, Barron’s says

SYNDICATE

Malibu Boats (MBUU) files to sell 4M shares of common stock
ModusLink (MLNK) files $100M mixed securities shelf
Repros Therapeutics (RPRX) files $100M mixed securities shelf

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1vRecIH Tyler Durden

First it was Treasurys to fill the NFP gap, and then, a little after 4am, it was the USDJPY’s turn which – despite all talk of an imminent upside breakout – promptly tumbled by nearly 30 pips well below 102, to 101.9 thus also returning to pre-NFP levels. Equity futures, however, have hardly retraced any of their Thursday gains and at last check were down a modest 0.1% or so: a situation which we expect will be promptly “fixed” once the BTFD dark pool algos appear, aided by the NY Fed/Citadel-controlled VIX “intervention” algo.

Risk assets have started the week off on a slightly softer footing but overall volumes are fairly low given the quiet Friday session last week and with the lack of any major weekend headlines. Equity bourses are down between 25-50bp on the day paced by the Nikkei (-0.4%). In China, a number of railway construction stocks are up 3-4% after reports that China Railway Corp will buy around 300 sets of high speed trains and may potentially launch 14 news railway construction projects soon as part of national investment plans.

European equities markets retreated today amid thin volumes and light newsflow, with the basic materials sector underperforming as softer metals and commodity prices weigh on miners. The CAC-40 underperforms as large-cap names Sanofi (SAN FP) and Total (FP FP) fall after warning on FX effects on their upcoming earnings and weak refining margins respectively. After topping 17,000 last week, focus shifts to US earnings, with Alcoa (AA) due after-market tomorrow, and Wells Fargo (WFC) rounding off the week on Friday.

The Q2 earnings calendar kicks off this week with Alcoa’s update on Tuesday. Wells Fargo will be the first of the major US banks to report (on Friday) but we’ll have to wait until next week for the bulk of the major banks to provide their earnings updates. In terms of what’s in store this quarter, DB’s US equity strategist David Bianco expects a standard earnings season with typical results vs. expectations, but improved sales and EPS growth and a significant increase from 1Q EPS. David expects 2/3rd of the companies to beat with an average beat of 2-3%. He is also looking for sales growth to improve to ~5% y/y from the anaemic ~2.5% pace of the last 2 years on higher energy prices, improving capex and loan growth. Analysts polled by Reuters are calling for earnings growth for the second quarter of 6.2%, and a return to double digit growth in Q3 and Q4. The last time that S&P 500 earnings achieved double-digit percentage growth was the third quarter of 2011 (18%), according to Reuters. Of 133 earnings pre-announcements from S&P 500 components so far, 97 have been negative, 24 positive and 12 in line with existing forecasts, according to Thomson Reuters data. That puts the negative-to-positive ratio at 4-to-1 for the second quarter, the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2012. So as ever expectations have been pushed down in the weeks going into the reporting period.

In summary, European shares remain lower, close to intraday lows, with the basic resources and financial services sectors underperforming and utilities, telco outperforming. The Swiss and Spanish markets are the worst- performing larger bourses, the Swedish the best. The euro is little changed against the dollar. Commodities decline, with natural gas, silver underperforming.

Market Wrap

• S&P 500 futures down 0.1% to 1975.5
• Stoxx 600 down 0.3% to 347
• US 10Yr yield little changed at 2.64%
• German 10Yr yield little changed at 1.27%
• MSCI Asia Pacific little changed at 147.6
• Gold spot down 0.5% to $1314/oz

EUROPE MARKETS

• 3 out of 19 Stoxx 600 sectors rise; utilities, telco outperform, basic resources, financial services underperform
• 29.3% of Stoxx 600 members gain, 68.5% decline
• Eurostoxx 50 -0.2%, FTSE 100 -0.2%, CAC 40 -0.3%, DAX -0.1%, IBEX -0.3%, FTSEMIB -0.1%, SMI -0.4%

ASIA MARKETS

• Asian stocks little changed with the Sensex outperforming and the Nikkei underperforming.
• MSCI Asia Pacific little changed at 147.6
  Nikkei 225 down 0.4%, Hang Seng down 0%, Kospi down 0.2%, Shanghai Composite little changed, ASX down 0.1%, Sensex up 0.5%
• 4 out of 10 sectors rise with utilities, financials outperforming and energy, health care underperforming

Bulletin Headline Summary from RanSquawk and Bloomberg

• Negative Asia-Pacific and European equity markets lifted T-notes back to flat ahead of the US crossover, after being weighed on upon resuming trade by last Thursday’s firm US jobs report
• Spot gold continues to pull back from the highest level since mid-March (USD 1332.33 last week) as traders eye Goldman Sachs bringing forward their FFR hike expectations to Q3 2015 from Q1 2016
• Today’s session quiet ahead of the beginning of earnings season with Alcoa (AA) after-market tomorrow, and Wells Fargo (WFC) on Friday
• Treasuries steady, 10Y yield holds near 100-DMA, 2Y at highest since last year after last week’s stronger-than-forecast payrolls suggested Fed may increase interest rates sooner than previously expected.
• Goldman now sees first rate hike in 3Q 2015 vs 1Q 2016; JPM also expects 3Q 2015 vs 4Q 2015
• While ECB’s Draghi says a program to hand as much as EU1t to banks has built-in incentives to spur lending to the real economy, analysts from Barclays Plc to Commerzbank AG have doubts on how well it will work
• Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen faces an economy that is starting to look more like Arthur Burns’s in the 1970s than Alan Greenspan’s in the 1990s
• Germany’s Merkel said allegations that a member of its foreign-intelligence agency sold documents to the U.S. would be a clear contradiction of “trusting cooperation between agencies and partners”
• The Ukrainian government accused pro-Russian rebels of setting mines on bridges and other infrastructure, as it sought the “liquidation” of insurgents’ bases and ruled out a unilateral cease-fire in the battle-torn east
• Saudi Arabia is a target for both sides in Iraq’s deepening conflict, one reason it has ramped up security levels to confront a threat that’s more immediate than the Arab Spring revolts three years ago
• The Obama administration will curb the number of unaccompanied, undocumented children crossing the U.S. border with Mexico, Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson said
• Sovereign yields mixed. EU bank stocks decline. Asian stocks mostly lower, European equities, U.S. stock futures fall. WTI crude, gold and copper fall

US Event Calendar

• No economic reports
• 11:00am POMO: Fed to purchase $2.5b-$3.25b in 2021-2024 sector

FIXED INCOME

EU fixed income markets trade quietly, amid thin volumes, with slight underperformance in Greece as markets eye a potential syndicated deal later this week. Bund futures opened slightly lower on the back of higher US yields overnight, however lower equities have kept Buns underpinned, with traders shrugging off comments from ECB’s Lautenschlager, who hinted that bond-buying is far from imminent, stating that asset purchases would only be an option if the ECB faces extraordinary risks.

EQUITIES

European equities markets retreated today amid thin volumes and light newsflow, with the basic materials sector underperforming as softer metals and commodity prices weigh on miners. The CAC-40 underperforms as large-cap names Sanofi (SAN FP) and Total (FP FP) fall after warning on FX effects on their upcoming earnings and weak refining margins respectively. After topping 17,000 last week, focus shifts to US earnings, with Alcoa (AA) due after-market tomorrow, and Wells Fargo (WFC) rounding off the week on Friday.

FX

EUR came under mild pressure alongside the European open as German industrial production was sharply lower than expected (-1.8% vs. Exp. 0.0%), however a slew of option expiries between 1.3600 and 1.3650 lifted EUR/USD back to flat well ahead of the US open. The JPY trades stronger, as leveraged names selling in EUR/JPY and a failure to hold 102.00 in USD/JPY lifted the currency.

COMMODITIES

Spot gold has continued to underperform today as markets continue to eye last week’s stronger US jobs data, with oil also trading softer after the force majeure in Libya’s Ras Lanuf and Es Sider refineries was fully lifted over the weekend. Platinum and Palladium prices are holding up relatively strongly, as mining output from South Africa is still yet to hit full capacity despite the strikes being resolved a few weeks ago.

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight statement

The week after payrolls is normally quiet for data and given that Friday was a US holiday and that we’re now into the first full week of July and the start of holiday season, then there isn’t a whole lot to get excited about for today or the week ahead. However you can be sure that as soon as we make such a comment then something will come from left field to focus our attention.

The main highlight of the week will likely be the release of the last set of FOMC minutes on Wednesday. DB’s US economists think the overall minutes might be more hawkish than Yellen’s recent pronouncements so it’ll be interesting to see how the market reacts to such an outcome. The minutes will hopefully also shed light on the committee’s discussions around labour market slack following the recent improvement in the unemployment rate. Hopefully they will also discuss whether the recent drift upwards in CPI and PCE inflation indicators were broadly accepted as statistical ‘noise’, as Yellen recently described it. Other Fed officials seemed divided on this topic, including the more hawkish Richmond Fed’s Jeff Lacker (alternate member of the FOMC) who said in late June that “I don’t think the past few months are entirely noise”.

The Q2 earnings calendar kicks off this week with Alcoa’s update on Tuesday. Wells Fargo will be the first of the major US banks to report (on Friday) but we’ll have to wait until next week for the bulk of the major banks to provide their earnings updates. In terms of what’s in store this quarter, DB’s US equity strategist David Bianco expects a standard earnings season with typical results vs. expectations, but improved sales and EPS growth and a significant increase from 1Q EPS. David expects 2/3rd of the companies to beat with an average beat of 2-3%. He is also looking for sales growth to improve to ~5% y/y from the anaemic ~2.5% pace of the last 2 years on higher energy prices, improving capex and loan growth. Analysts polled by Reuters are calling for earnings growth for the second quarter of 6.2%, and a return to double digit growth in Q3 and Q4. The last time that S&P 500 earnings achieved double-digit percentage growth was the third quarter of 2011 (18%), according to Reuters. Of 133 earnings pre-announcements from S&P 500 components so far, 97 have been negative, 24 positive and 12 in line with existing forecasts, according to Thomson Reuters data. That puts the negative-to-positive ratio at 4-to-1 for the second quarter, the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2012. So as ever expectations have been pushed down in the weeks going into the reporting period.

We’ll preview the rest of the week ahead below but first we’ll take a look at overnight markets. Risk assets have started the week off on a slightly softer footing but overall volumes are fairly low given the quiet Friday session last week and with the lack of any major weekend headlines. Equity bourses are down between 25-50bp on the day paced by the Nikkei (-0.25%). In China, a number of railway construction stocks are up 3-4% after reports that China Railway Corp will buy around 300 sets of high speed trains and may potentially launch 14 news railway construction projects soon as part of national investment plans. 10yr UST yields have reopened higher (+2bp at 2.656%) after the extended weekend.

Aside from the FOMC minutes, there are a couple of other highlights on the US calendar. The latest JOLTs jobs number will be released tomorrow and it will be worth watching the trend in the quit rate, one of the key labour market indicators which Yellen focuses on. The May consumer credit report will also be published tomorrow. Five regional Fed presidents will be speaking this week, namely Lacker and Kocherlakota (Tuesday), George (Thursday), followed by Lockhart and Evans (Friday). Elsewhere initial jobless claims are out on Thursday as usual.

In a quiet week for Europe, the Bank of England’s MPC meeting (Thursday) is perhaps the key event to watch. Many expect this month’s meeting to be a non-event with no detailed post-meeting statement ahead of the Bank’s august inflation report which is expected to be a better vehicle to flag any changes to policy. Though the activity data have been upbeat and Carney’s Mansion House speech have given food for thought, even the more hawkish members on the MPC such as Martin Weale have warned of persistently low wage inflation. As well as the MPC, the BoE’s top banking supervisor Andrew Bailey will be speaking on Thursday. In terms of data, German IP (today), German trade, UK industrial production, French trade (tomorrow) and UK trade (Thursday) are the key ones to watch.

In the emerging markets, a couple of highly anticipated events come to a head this week. The first of these is the Indonesian presidential election on Wednesday. The latest opinion polls suggest that the race between the reformist Jokowi and former army general Subianto is too close to call. The latest Roy Morgan poll puts the vote at 52% vs 48% in favour of Jokowi. In India Modi’s government releases its highly anticipated maiden budget on Thursday which will aim to address the fiscal deficit while balancing inflation risks. There have been numerous reports over the last 48 hours suggesting that Modi will be targeting record levels of asset sales and privatisations of listed public sector companies as a means of shoring up the national budget. Also on Modi’s horizon are reforms to sales taxes and fuel subsidies. Elsewhere on the EM radar, Mexico reports June inflation on Wednesday and Mexico’s central bank announces its latest rate decision on Friday (Bloomberg consensus is for no change). This will also be a key week for China where the latest PPI and CPI numbers are released on Wednesday, followed by the June trade report on Thursday and the latest money supply/bank lending numbers towards the end of the week.

Though it was a quiet weekend for news flow, a couple of news items caught our eye. As we mentioned above, at her most recent news conference the Fed chair described inflation readings as being “a bit on the high side” lately but warned “the data that we’re seeing is noisy”. The WSJ provides more colour on where this noise may be coming from, and they pointed to certain segments of the fresh food sector including ground beef which rose 10.4% from a year earlier in May while pork chop prices climbed 12.7%. The price of fresh fruit rose 7.3% and oranges 17.1%. The article notes that drought in Oklahoma and Texas is driving up cattle prices. A disease known as porcine epidemic virus has contributed to higher hog prices. A disease known as citrus greening is killing Florida’s orange and grapefruit trees, driving up citrus prices. Most of the shrimp eaten in the U.S. comes from Southeast Asia, where a bacterial infection has devastated stocks. Finally, coffee prices have risen this year due to a drought in Brazil. The article highlights that in contrast, price increases for non-perishable food items and restaurant food have been largely benign, suggesting that recent food inflation is arising from special factors constraining selected fresh food supplies, as opposed to broad increases in demand. This may be giving the Fed additional comfort when it comes to inflation.

In terms of geopolitical headlines, Iran announced on Saturday that a pilot serving in Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards air force was killed in Iraq in a further sign that the conflict in Iraq is widening. The official IRNA news agency reported that the pilot was killed while “defending” the holy shrines of Shia Muslims in Samarra, north of Baghdad, according to the FT. In Ukraine, it will be interesting to see whether there is a response from Russia or pro-Russian rebels, after the Ukrainian government announced that it had retaken rebel strong holds of Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.

Of relevance to the banking sector, the WSJ reports that the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision is considering new global regulations that would reduce banks’ latitude to measure the riskiness of their own assets for the purposes of regulatory capital calculations. The potential move includes changes to the risk treatment of government bonds and the ability of banks to measure the risk of their own assets. The committee is more likely to propose risk-weighting “floors,” which would set minimum risk weights for certain classes of assets.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1mZSkp2 Tyler Durden

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