Month: July 2014

Happy Fourth! …Unless You Live in a State With Firework Bans

Tomorrow’s the big day in the U.S. of A, and what
better way to celebrate our independence than with some real
firepower? That’s probably what one unnamed, entrepreneurial
77-year-old Cleveland resident thought. Unfortunately for him, he
lives in a state that essentially bans the detonation of anything
stronger than a sparkler, and now he may be facing felony
charges.

The Plain Dealer
reported yesterday:

A citizen tipped off police that the Cleveland man … was
illegally selling fireworks. Detectives bought two boxes of
assorted fireworks for $100 from the Cleveland man. After the
purchase, the man told the undercover officers he could get
them bigger fireworks, [Second District Commander Thomas] Stacho
said.

Detectives followed him to the 8700 block of Pleasant Valley
Road in Parma, Stacho said. He opened the garage to what looked
like a store, shelves lined with hundreds of fireworks, ranging
from small firecrackers and sparklers to professional grade
explosives and H-100 firecrackers. …

Police and prosecutors are taking the cases against the
[77-year-old and another man] to a Cuyahoga County Grand Jury and
are seeking a felony indictment. The men have not been arrested or
charged.

His loot added up to about $100,000 worth of fun. Now the cops
will have the pleasure of “detonat[ing] the confiscated fireworks
in a large hole in an undisclosed location.”

While Cleveland police officers like Stacho pat themselves on
the back for staging “one of the largest fireworks seizures any one
of us are aware of or remember in the city,” it’s worth reflecting
on the situation’s absurdity: a senior citizen could face
prison time for conducting business that less than two hours’
drive away across the Pennsylvania border wouldn’t warrant a
written citation (albeit, with the proper licensing).

Ohioans aren’t the only ones burdened by such prohibitions.
The Washington Post
highlights the fact that “roughly 1 in 9 Americans lives in a
state that bans all consumer fireworks.” Those would be Delaware,
Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York. Additionally, “five states
— Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Ohio and Vermont — allow only sparklers
and/or novelty fireworks. And Arizona allows only novelty
fireworks.”

I’d say it’s unfortunate for residents of those states, but
having participated in many such fireworks displays, I know it’s
all the more titillating to celebrate Independence Day in direct
defiance of bad laws. 

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JPM Pulls Forward Date Of First Rate Hike

Is good news about to become the ultimate bad news. JPMorgan’s Michael Feroli notes that (for the first time in recent memory) is pulling forward their projected date for Fed tightening and the inevitable end of the free-money cycle. Based on a belief in the committee’s limited appetite to wait in inflation and today’s report, JPMorgan notes a Q2 tightening seems plausible. Of course, this will be repeated mantra like as evidence of escape velocity and the status quo is back but, as we noted here, while policy economists claim that interest rates can be “normalized” at no cost; a more likely scenario is that policy “normalization” leads us directly into the next bust.

 

Via JPMorgan’s Mike Feroli,

We are pulling forward our projection for Fed tightening (the first time we have done so in recent memory); we now see lift-off occurring in 15Q3, rather than 15Q4. For year-end 2015 we see the funds rate at 1.0%, for 2016 2.5%, and for 2017 3.5%.

The inexorable decline in the unemployment rate, alongside firming core PCE inflation, is dramatically reducing the degree to which the Fed is missing on its mandate. It’s true that the decline in unemployment is occurring alongside anemic GDP growth (we are also today lowering our tracking of Q2 GDP from 3.0% to 2.5%), but the Fed’s mandate is not to ensure strong productivity growth, it’s to get the economy back to full employment and price stability, and even broad measures of labor underutilization have been showing marked improvements in recent months. It’s also true that wage inflation has not materially accelerated, but unit labor costs are picking up, and we believe the Committee has only limited appetite to wait on inflation until they can “see the whites of their eyes.”

 

Indeed, after today’s’ report a Q2 tightening seems plausible. If the unemployment rate continues the recent surprising pace of descent such a move is even likely; nonetheless, we hope and believe better productivity and labor supply outcomes will slow the pace of decline in unemployment in coming quarters. We do not see the recent data as cause to accelerate the pace of tapering; there has been little agitation — even from the hawks — for such a move.

And what happens when rates rise… (as we detailed here)

It stands to reason that when the Fed eventually lifts
interest rates, we’ll see the usual effects. After a sustained rise in
rates, you can safely bet on:

  1. Fixed investment and business earnings dropping sharply
  2. GDP growth following investment and earnings lower
  3. Many people losing their jobs
  4. Risky assets performing poorly

These consequences follow not only from the arithmetic of debt
service and present value calculations, but also from the mood swinging
psychology of entrepreneurs, lenders and investors.

Yet, policy economists claim that interest rates can be “normalized” at no cost.

rate hikes 6

rate hikes 7

rate hikes 8

Now, many readers will surely dismiss these results by insisting that
“this time is different.” We beg to differ. By our estimates, the
economy and financial markets are as vulnerable to higher rates as
they’ve ever been. Here are a few reasons:

  1. The present expansion is weaker than any other post-World War 2
    expansion, suggesting that it won’t take much of a slowdown to push the
    economy into recession.
  2. Monetary policy has been exceptionally loose for longer than ever
    before, allowing financial markets more time to become overpriced and
    complacent.
  3. There are many more risk-takers in the global economy who’ve learned
    how to exploit cheap dollar policies than there were in, say, 1955, the
    start of the period shown in the charts.
  4. Most importantly, aggregate debt is at or near record levels, not only in the U.S. but also in other large economies.

Bottom line

Our conclusion is to reject forecasts calling for the economy to
power right through interest rate hikes without stumbling. A more likely
scenario is that policy “normalization” leads us directly into the next
bust. Alternatively, the Fed might abort its planned rate hikes,
allowing economic and financial market imbalances to continue growing.
Either way, we can expect recurring booms and busts until our monetary
approach is rebuilt on stronger policy principles.




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Bombs er Bonds, Debacle at Our Doorstep!

image

Bombs er Bonds, Debacle at Our Doorstep!July 3, 2014 

 
 
The breathtaking rush into the perceived safety and stability of the Bomb er Bond markets which began at the depths of the 2008 Global financial crisis are in blow off mode.  A recent Bank of international settlements annual report has been ignored due to its message of CAUTION.  The main stream media routinely blacks out these messages and have done so this time.  Frenzied reach for yields are occurring throughout the world.
 
"Investors are gobbling up riskier assets like never before."    

– Wall Street Journal, May 27, 2014

 

 
Actually, we are closer to the 1996 lows in yields than it appears as back then it was 5 year treasuries versus 7 year treasuries being graphed now.  This is understandable as over $35 Trillion dollars (35 million million) have been printed or issued out of thin air by lenders or central banks since 2008.  That money is now frantically seeking a home.  Keep in mind we operate in a reserveless banking system with leverage ratios officially about 33 to 1 but probably much higher if properly measured.  Most people don’t understand that deposits used to drive lending; now the lending drives the deposits as can be seen in cash balances worldwide.
 
"Financial markets are euphoric, in the grip of an aggressive search for yield,"… And yet investment in the real economy remains weak while the macroeconomic and geopolitical outlook is still highly uncertain."

– Claudio Bono, Bank of International settlements, June 2014
 

The BIS report outlines several alarming facts related to syndicated loans; “—"for instance, credit granted to lower-rated leveraged loans" exceeded 40% of new loans for much of 2013. "This share was higher than during the pre-crisis period from 2005 to mid-2007" and "fewer and fewer of the new loans featured creditor protection in the form of covenants."

Leverage and ISSUANCE is at record levels across a wide spectrum of credit and bomb er bond markets!

Over $642 BILLION Dollars of corporate DEBT sales in the first half of the YEAR at record LOW Rates sets and ALL TIME RECORD!

The dash for trash such as PiK toggles, cov lite, junk, commercial loans. corporates and US treasuries are at levels rarely seen in history.  Can it go farther?  Sure.  $35 million million is seeking a home and income in a world that has a shortage of real investments.  That’s a lot of cabbage rotting away from printing press and exploding credit issuance.   Nobody knows when the last fools will be in at the top but it is certainly time to start looking for them.  Money is just mindlessly seeking shelter from the central banks mandate to INFLATE or die.  Central banks have joined the frenzy mindlessly rushing into overvalued tangible markets in exchange for the worthless paper (FIAT CURRENCY) on their balance sheets.  Recent reports put the number at over $29 Trillion since 2008.  Here’s another picture of the insanity afoot in the world from Lance Roberts at http://ift.tt/VDGCTM:

“We have seen this exuberance before.  In 1999, the old valuation metrics no longer mattered as it was “clicks per page.”  In 2007, there was NO concern over subprime mortgages as the housing boom fostered a new era of financial stability.  Today, it is the Federal Reserve ‘put’ that is unanimously believed to be the backstop to any potential shock that may occur.”

– Lance Roberts

Those are all time lows in junk bomb er bond yields.  Much of the printed money has fled the developed world for the emerging world where interest rates still put a cost (not zero) and return on money:

Informed observers know there has been no REAL ECONOMIC growth since 2008; actually it has been much longer than that.  It has actually been over 30 years since real growth occurred in the developed world.  All reported growth since the early 1980s has been debt disguised as growth.  It is why your money has lost so much purchasing power since that time.  Living standards are in free fall in REAL terms.  It is this debt growth and debasement that has FUELED and DESTROYED the middle classes in the developed world.  Growth became a function of printing money and debt issuance in thinly disguised socialist welfare states in Europe and the US.

“There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.”

– Ludwig von Mises

The elites, banksters and insolvent governments of this era are following the latter route as have all their predecessors.  This has been a bottom line of the present day situation since Breton woods II in August 1971 forever altered the definition and functions of money.   One day the citizens of the world had semi sound real money in their hands and bank accounts to store their labor and wealth in and the next day it was IOU’s or morally and fiscally bankrupt public servants government and banksters.  It was the greatest heist in history done in DAYLIGHT.

Now the greed and avarice of public servants, something for nothing constituents and the banksters which facilitates them KNOW NO BOUNDS and has outdone every previous episode in history.  The boom has been tremendous but the bust will be one for the history books.

Real money is still available as it has been throughout time.  Those are Gold, Silver, Commodities, land and in more recent century’s energy.  Throughout history humans have consumed all of these and exchanged money for them.  These are the basics of existence, always have been and always will be.  To put into perspective how debt has substituted as growth here is something to ponder:

From 1950 to 1980, the world's largest economy soared by 191% in inflation-adjusted terms, while the combination of household, corporate (including financial) and government debt increased by a mere 12%”

“In the following three decades, from 1980 to 2010, the U.S. GDP grew a more moderate 124%, yet total debt rose by an almost identical 125%”.

Did GDP increase or did the DEBT GROWTH create the illusion of GDP growth?

The answer is self-evident.  The greatest experiment in leverage in HISTORY and money printing has been transpiring for over 44 years.  Someday soon it will all end with a pop.  On that day hope will turn to fear as the leverage FAILS.  But the present day version has all the fingerprints seen throughout history and are now front and center.  Now we are going to look at a number of pictures which are reflections of each other.  The first is Global Money supply from 1986 to January 2013:

Yes, you see that right it has exploded from $5 trillion in 1986 to $52 trillion in less than 30 years dwarfing all of history before it.  Since 2002 it has gone virtually vertical.  Do you know what happens to a plane when it climbs like that?  It isn’t pretty.  Since January of 2013 it is up at least another $3Trillion.  That PILE of worthless IOU’S are now just COUPONS you can EXCHANGE for REAL WEALTH.  Let’s take a look at the bombs er bonds and it is the mirror image of the previous chart and runs from 1989 to September of 2013:

Wow, another $90 Trillion and easily up another $2 to 3 trillion in the last 9 months and the developed world has debt to gdp ratios which are UNMANAGEABLE to say the least.  This does not include bank lending.  Most people don’t know but global asset markets now total almost $250 trillion ($250 million million) but the ugly little detail is that 80% of it is INTANGIBLE sitting in worthless paper of one sort or another.

The math is hopeless.  If interest rates average 5% on this pile of paper above ($175 trillion) the interest alone is a cool $11.25 Trillion alone.  Like I said, no principal can be paid back on balance.   A lot of this debt is already non-performing, just not reported as such through official chicanery.  So, those productive assets must make that amount just to pay the interest on the piles of paper.  This graph ends in Q2 2012, almost 2 years ago.  Keep in mind the cash that was created when the debt is equal to the $175 trillion (175 million million) so it is sitting somewhere in a bank, called money but actually a form of junk bombs er bonds.  At some point the pile of paper is going to try and move into the real assets and a “Crack UP Boom” will commence.  We can see a ghost of it today as all asset classes are rising simultaneously in the last 6 months.

The world’s sovereigns and financial systems remain addicted to DEBT and debt spirals are plainly visible THROUGHOUT the world:

Author’s Note:  In my opinion the greatest manmade disaster and OPPORTUNITY in history is unfolding in every corner of the world.  Are you diversified or operating with EYES WIDE SHUT?  Are you prepared to turn it into opportunity by properly diversifying your portfolio?  Adding absolute return investments which are designed with the potential to thrive (up and down markets) regardless of what unfolds economically or politically?  This is what I do for investors; help them diversify into investments which are created to potentially thrive in the storm.  For a personal consultation with me CLICK HERE!

Most people don’t understand the Bombs er bonds are IOU’S denominated in IOU’S.  If one creditor doesn’t get you the other one will.  What good is an IBM bond worth if it is denominated in US dollars, Japanese Yen, Euros, etc.: which are already MATHEMATICALLY worthless?  We are just waiting for PEOPLE to WAKE UP as Von Mises puts it.   The banks are also sitting in hopeless insolvency and zombies in everything but name:

The US looks good in comparison to most others, but the dirty little secret is that they have written and are counterparty’s to over $200 TRILLION dollars of over the counter derivatives with nothing anchoring them but the CREDIT RATING which are public fictions.   Those OVER the COUNTER derivatives have no margin held against adverse moves against them.  In reality those derivatives are in place to manipulate and control these markets.   Please recall that world banks are operating at leverage ratios which make MF Global look PRUDENT.  At least 20% of those balance sheets in bonds which are unpayable and inextinguishable; it is called risk free government DEBT.  HO HO! These world banks are Zombies, operating in regulatory approved and ENGINEERED INSOLVENCY.  A large portion of their balance sheets reside in debt of sovereigns which have not paid a penny back in 30 to 50 years. It has only been rolled over and new borrowing to fund the welfare state issued.  We are operating in a world where the business model of the governments is Ponzi economics.  Never in history have so many governments operated with no intention of repayment.  As Lenin so aptly put it:

“Without big banks socialism would be impossible”

– Vladimir Lenin

Of course this is just the on the books amount, the real total including unfunded future liabilities is 4 or 5 times this amount.  Take a look at these charts showing you the GAAP adjusted numbers for the UNITED STATES from www.shadowstats.com (I highly recommend johns work):

These are a little old as I took them out of an older presentation.  But the GAAP adjusted deficits regularly hit $7 Trillion dollars ($7 million million) a year and the real deficit is $90 Trillion (90 million million) not the $17.5 Trillion told to the public.  Lawrence Kolikoff at Harvard puts the real GAAP adjusted budget deficit at over $222 Trillion dollars (222 million million).  The idea that this will ever be paid is ZERO and the when the S**T hits the fan moment is on the near horizon.

In closing, Contrary to main stream media and finance industry we are not getting into a recovery we are heading into the next wave of INSOLVENCY.  Global central banks cannot allow these flows to REVERSE so you can expect their balance sheets to BALLOON AGAIN as the become the market maker of LAST RESORT.  It’s INFLATE or DIE for the world’s CENTRAL bankers or their Ponzi economies and financial systems will PERISH.  So you can expect the MADNESS to CONTINUE until it CAN’T. I call this the BOMB market the TOWER of Trash, at some time it will implode under its own weight.  It is the most powerful men on earth versus Mother Nature and DARWIN.  It is the picture of moral and fiscal insolvency of the developed world, politicians and their masters in the Banks.  SHORT term interest rates controlled by the central banks can NEVER RISE AGAIN.  Mark Carney at the BOE and Janet Yellen have been rather clear that their preferred course of action is REGULATING LEVERAGE, not raising rates.  Unfortunately, the shadow banking sector probably won’t cooperate.  A small reduction in credit in 2008 almost CRASHED the Banking sector and economies crumbled.  It is INFLATE or DIE.  Don’t worry as I have said for over a decade:  THEY WILL ISSUE the DEBT until NO ONE will BUY it and they will PRINT THE MONEY until it is no longer accepted.  It has happened this way throughout History.

RECENT IMF and Federal Reserve white papers propose exit fees for bond funds to discourage flight out of these asset classes.  HA HA, when the real PANIC sets in it will be “get me out” at ANY PRICE for the fools that have chased these markets.  With the weakest hands JUMPING FIRST!   As the FED tapers (tightens monetary policy), the Peoples Bank of China reigns in the rate of credit growth and attempts a soft landing, and the Bank of England raises short term rates do you think these lala land paper asset values can be sustained?  What do you think will happen when these flows REVERSE?  Who will buy them on their way down and provide LIQUIDITY?  Dodd Frank has severely restricted the banks’ ability to do so.  Famous Distressed bomb er bond investor Howard Marks is warning of froth and overvalued markets.  As Warren Buffet has said many times be cautious when investors are greedy and greedy when investors are panicking.  GOOD ADVICE at this TIME! They are in greedy mode.

Whether this plays out over a year or a decade the end zone remains the same as it has throughout history: a currency and financial system extinction event as these assets revert to the mean and drop to a value which provides a yield greater than the REAL RATE of INFLATION.  That intangible and worthless paper IS the RESERVES of the global banking systems.  I am Austrian and it is etched in history and never ends any differently.  Only this time it is different, Different in scale!  It isn’t one or a few countries; it is all of them in the developed world!  It is the greatest mass insanity in history.  This is NOT DOOM and GLOOM:  IT IS THE GREATEST OPPORTUNITY IN HISTORY if you put your portfolio into applied Austrian economics investments.  This is my specialty.

Author’s Note:  In my opinion the greatest manmade disaster and OPPORTUNITY in history is unfolding in every corner of the world.  Are you diversified or operating with EYES WIDE SHUT?  Are you prepared to turn it into opportunity by properly diversifying your portfolio?  Adding absolute return investments which are designed with the potential to thrive (up and down markets) regardless of what unfolds economically or politically?  This is what I do for investors; help them diversify into investments which are created to potentially thrive in the storm.  For a personal consultation with me CLICK HERE!

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Services PMI Business Optimism Tumbles As ISM Drops; Misses Most Since January

Markit’s Services PMI soared to record highs in June at 61.0 (though notably dropped back from its 61.2 flash print which suggest slight softening in the latter half of the month) but oustanding business fell and once again margins are under pressure as prices charged dropped but prices paid rose. Perhaps most worrisome – business optimism tumbled. Then ISM Services hit and disappointed dropping from 56.3 to 56.0 and missing expectations by the most since January as business activity dropped to its lowest since March. Sentiment for inventory builds (the key for GDP) is at Dec 2013 lows. Under the surface, these reports suggest anything but the Q2 rebound so often crowed about.

 

US Services PMI – record highs…

 

Headlines are awesome but business is slowing and margin pressures continue…

 

Then ISM Services dropped and missed…

 

Full Breakdown-  not a pretty picture

 

 

Sources: Bloomberg and ISM




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Dragjhi is Transforming ECB and it will Look more like the Federal Reserve

Given the new initiatives announced last month, of course the ECB stood pat.  However, Draghi announced the most far-reaching changes of how the central bank will conduct policy starting next year.  

 

Three important changes will take place.  In his prepared remarks Draghi focused on two, but let’s put the other one on the table. With Lithuania set to join EMU on January 1, the treaties call for a rotation among the national central bank presidents for voting purposes.  The central banks from the largest countries, including Germany will vote a little more often than the central banks from the smaller countries.  

 

This is a bit like the rotation of the regional presidents as voting members of the Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee, with two exceptions.  First, in the US, the NY Fed has a permanent vote on the FOMC.  Some in Germany want the same thing for the Bundesbank, but it does not look particularly likely now.  Second, the Board of Governors at the Federal Reserve, when fully staffed, outnumber the regional presidents.  This will not be the case at the ECB, where the Executive Board is only five strong.    

 

The other two changes include a shift from monthly meetings to every six weeks, which is essentially the same as the Federal Reserve.  Draghi was clear that there was not attempt to align the meetings of the two central banks.  The reserve maintenance period has also been changed from a monthly term to a six week period.  This will produce operational changes at the member banks.  

 

The ECB is also working a releasing some record of its meetings.  It is still not clear what form they will take or how timely they will be.  The publication of the “minutes” will begin next year and we expected additional details to be forthcoming.  

 

Most of Draghi’s other comments were well within expectations.  There was more technical information of about the Targeted LTROS (TLTROs) and there was another innovation:  that the TLTROs could be drawn individually or as part of a (TLTRO) group.  The dates of the TLTROs were set for September 18 and December 11.  

 

While many in observers have focused on the roughly 400 bln euros that could be borrowed from the facility in September and December, Draghi reminds investors that the funds available after the quarterly allotments could bring the total toward 1 bln euros. 

 

Last month Draghi was understood to say that interest rate policy had been exhausted, but today he seemed to backtrack a bit.  He said that a technical adjustment could not be ruled out.  It is not clear what this means, but it could be a cut in the corridor by bringing the marginal lending rate down.   

 

On the exchange rate, Draghi shed little fresh light.  It is not a policy target, but it is an important input into inflation.  Draghi did seem a bit frustrated with the euro’s resilience despite the rate cuts and other measures. He said he was watching the exchange rate with “great attention.”  

 

With the momentum from the stronger than expected US jobs data and the smaller trade deficit, the euro briefly slipped through $1.3600, but rebounded a bit.  Resistance is now seen in the $1.3640-60 area.  Italia, Spanish and Portuguese benchmark 10-year bond yields have eased around 5 bp, which is essentially what the US 10-year yields have risen.  While many observers will talk about how Spain’s benchmark 10-year yield is poised to slip below the US yield, keep in mind that Spain’s inflation is 0.2% year-over-year.  That makes its nominal yield virtually the same as its real yield.  US inflation is near 2.1%, making its real yield closer to 0.55%, about a fifth of the real yield in Spain.  

 

Lastly, we note that Draghi appeared to be singing from the same song book as Yellen regarding the use of monetary policy to address financial stability.  Like the Fed Chair yesterday, Draghi indicated that macro-prudential measures and regulation is the first line of defense, not monetary policy (price and quantity of money).   Monetary policy seems to blunt of an instrument and operates with unpredictable lags.  Macro-prudential policy and regulatory efforts are more precise and can be implemented almost immediately.  This is part of the new orthodoxy.  




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Who Was Hiring In June

As we reported previously, and as hardly anyone else will discuss, in June the composition of added jobs was rather abysmal: according to the Household survey, while over half a million full-time jobs were lost, this was offset by less paying, benefits-free part-time jobs rising by 799K, the most since 1993. So what does that mean for the job quality as reported by the Establishment Survey. Let’s dive in.

Of the 288K jobs added in June, here were some of the biggest contributors:

  • Retail Trade: 40.2K
  • Leisure and Hospitality: 39K
  • Education and health: 38K
  • Government: 26K
  • Temp Help Service: 13.1K

What about the well-paying jobs? Well, here they are:

  • Professional business services: 53.9K
  • Financial Services: 17K
  • Manufacturing: 16K
  • Information: 9K
  • Construction: 6K

And there, again, us why cost-push inflation may be spreading (especially after one buys record expensive burgers and pays the highest gas bill since 2008 for the July 4th weekend) but wage inflation is nowhere to be found.




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“Hurricane” Arthur Looms – Evacuations Ordered; State Of Emergency Declared

Not so happy 4th of July for residents and visitors of the Outer Banks. As Bloomberg reports, Arthur strengthened off the coast of North Carolina to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, packing maximum winds of 75 miles (120 kilometers) per hour. Officials have issued a mandatory evacuation order and a county-wide state of emergency has been declared.

 

 

As Bloomberg reports,

Arthur strengthened off the coast of North Carolina to become the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, packing maximum winds of 75 miles (120 kilometers) per hour.

 

The system was about 190 miles south-southwest of Cape Fear, North Carolina, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said in an advisory at 5 a.m. local time. It was traveling north at 9 miles per hour and is expected to move near to the North Carolina Outer Banks tonight, the advisory said.

 

“Hurricane Arthur is going to greatly affect the Outer Banks of North Carolina,” Rob Richards, meteorologist at State College, Pennsylvania-based AccuWeather Inc. said by phone today. “They could see winds as high as maybe 90 to 95 miles per hour with flooding rainfall.”

 

Arthur would be the first hurricane to hit the U.S. since 2012 should it strike North Carolina’s Outer Banks. A hurricane warning is in place from Surf City, North Carolina, to the border with Virginia, Pamlico Sound and Eastern Albemarle Sound, the notice said.

 

Officials in Dare County, North Carolina, where at least 250,000 vacationers are spending their Fourth of July holiday, issued a mandatory evacuation order for Hatteras Island beginning today. A countywide state of emergency was declared in neighboring Hyde

 

County, where officials called for a voluntary evacuation of Ocracoke Island. North Carolina Governor Pat McCrory declared states of emergency throughout coastal areas.

On the bright side the Keynesians will be cock-a-hoop – think of all the broken windows and GDP enhancing growth opportunities.

We wonder how accurate NOAA will be this year.,..




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One Day Only Old People Will Remember the ’90s

Picking up on something Elizabeth Nolan Brown wrote here
this morning:

Life is an escalator to nowhere, and everyone eventually plunges to an awkward death. Enjoy your weekend!To younger members of Gen X and
older millennials, [Saved by the Bell] is part of the
childhood canon. I think we all died a little inside yesterday in
the Reason D.C. office when we realized that none of our interns
and a few of our youngest staffers had no idea who Jessie Spano
was. By a quick show of birth years, we pipointed 1990 as the crack
in this generational divide. I shudder to ask them about the Soup
Nazi—though I suppose Seinfeld is a show you’re more prone
to watch in reruns as an adult than Saved by the Bell.
(Another show launched in 1989, The Simpsons, is still
airing after all these years.)

I was watching some old episodes of The Simpsons with
one of my kids the other night, and I don’t think I’ve ever felt
quite as decrepit as I did when I realized that “Marge vs. the
Monorail” is 21 years old. Put another way: The gap between now
and “Marge vs. the Monorail” is larger than the gap between “Marge
vs. the Monorail” and the fall of Saigon. I would have told my
daughter that, but then she would’ve asked “What’s a Saigon?” and I
would’ve felt even older. It was bad enough that I had to explain
who Leonard Nimoy was. He isn’t even dead yet.

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Brendan O’Neill on How British Liberals Sold Out Free Speech

A new wave of press censorship has arrived in
Great Britain, exemplified by a growing movement in favor of a
state-led investigation into the culture and ethics of the tabloid
media. And as Brendan O’Neill reports, this campaign to enforce
tighter state regulation of the press has received the surprising
support of top British liberals.

View this article.

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