Obama To Corporate CEOs: “If You Have A Complaint, You Can Keep your Complaint”

President Barack Obama has a direct message for the leaders of America’s biggest companies: if you have a complaint, you can keep your complaint. “If you look at what’s happened over the last four or five years, the folks who don’t have a right to complain are the folks at the top,” Obama said in an interview with The Economist published over the weekend. As The WSJ adds, Obama maintained that complaints from corporate CEOs in the current environment should be taken with “a grain of salt” as most policies he has implemented have “generally been friendly towards business.”

 

Original interview with The Economist:

 

Excerpts from the interview via The Wall Street Journal,

They always complain about regulation. That’s their job. Let’s look at the track record. Let’s look at the facts. Since I have come into office, there’s almost no economic metric by which you couldn’t say that the US economy is better and that corporate bottom lines are better. None.”

 

“So if, in fact, our policies have produced a record stock market, record corporate profits, 52 months of consecutive job growth, 10 million new jobs, the deficit being cut by more than half, an energy sector that’s booming, a clean-energy sector that’s booming, a reduction of carbon pollution greater than the Europeans or any other country, a housing market that has bounced back, and an unemployment rate that is now lower than it was pre-Lehman – I think you’d have to say that we’ve managed the economy pretty well and business has done okay.”

 

“There are always going to be areas where business does not want to be regulated because regulations are inconvenient.”

 

In the interview, Mr. Obama said corporations should try to improve the livelihood of the middle class through higher-paying jobs. He noted that wages and incomes have been stagnant for roughly two decades.

 

“The reason I’m concerned about this is not in any way a punitive notion,” Mr. Obama said. “Oftentimes, you’ll hear some hedge-fund manager say, ‘Oh, he’s just trying to stir class resentment’. No. Feel free to keep your house in the Hamptons and your corporate jet, etc. I’m not concerned about how you’re living.

 

I am concerned about making sure that we have a system in which the ordinary person who is working hard and is being responsible can get ahead and are seeing modest improvements in their life prospects, if not for themselves, then certainly for the next generation,” he added.

*  *  *

… President Obama was later seen heading to a major fundraiser led by one of America’s most successful business leaders…

*  *  *

So – thank me for the recovery, but don’t blame me for the inequalityan ironic truth we have explained a number of times:

Inequality in the U.S. today is near its historical highs, largely because the Federal Reserve’s policies have succeeded in achieving their aim: namely, higher asset prices (especially the prices of stocks, bonds and high-end real estate), which are generally owned by taxpayers in the upper-income brackets. The Fed is doing all the work, because the President’s policies are growth-suppressive. In the absence of the Fed’s money-printing and ZIRP, the economy would either be softer or actually in a new recession.

 

The greatest irony is that the President is railing against inequality as one of the most important problems of the day, despite the fact that his policies are squeezing the middle class and causing the Fed – with the President’s encouragement – to engage in the radical monetary policy, which is exacerbating inequality.

 

This simple truth cannot be repeated often enough.




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Lessons In Investment Warfare

Submitted by Tim Price via Sovereign Man blog,

"Let us learn our lessons. Never, never, never believe any war will be smooth and easy, or that anyone who embarks on that strange voyage can measure the tides and hurricanes he will encounter. The statesman who yields to war fever must realise that once the signal is given, he is no longer the master of policy but the slave of unforeseeable and uncontrollable events.

“Antiquated War Offices, weak, incompetent or arrogant commanders, untrustworthy allies, hostile neutrals, malignant fortune, ugly surprises, awful miscalculations – all take their seats at the Council Board on the morrow of a declaration of war. Always remember, however sure you are that you can easily win, that there would not be a war if the other man did not think he also had a chance.”

 

– Winston Churchill, ‘My Early Life’, quoted by Charles Lucas in a letter to the FT, 23rd July 2014.

And there is a war being conducted out there in the financial markets, too, a war between debtors and creditors, between governments and taxpayers, between banks and depositors, between the errors of the past and the hopes of the future. How can investors end up on the winning side ? History would seem to have the answers.

For history, read in particular James O’Shaughnessy’s magisterial study of market data, ‘What Works on Wall Street’ (hat-tip to Abbington Investment Group’s Peter Van Dessel). O’Shaughnessy offers rigorous analysis of innumerable equity market strategies, but we are instinctively and philosophically drawn most strongly towards the value factors highlighted hereafter.

The chart below shows the results accruing to various strategies across the All Stocks universe – all companies in the Standard & Poor’s Compustat database with market capitalisations above $150 million, a dataset which comprises between 4,000 and 5,000 individual companies. The analysis takes in over half a century’s worth of data.

Making the (fairly reasonable) assumption that the data in this study is sufficiently broad to mitigate the effects of shorter term market “noise”, the results are unequivocal. Buying stocks with high price-to-sales (PSR) ratios; buying stocks with high price / cashflow ratios; buying stocks with highprice / book ratios; buying stocks with high price /earnings (PE) ratios; all of these are disastrous strategies relative to the performance of the broad index itself. Caution: these all happen to be ‘growth’ strategies.

Graph842014 Lessons in investment warfare

 

But the converse is also true – in spades. Buying stocks with low price-to-sales ratios; buying stocks with low price / book ratios; these are both outstandingly successful strategies over the longer term, converting that initial $10,000 into over $22 million in each case. Buying stocks on low price / cashflow ratios is also a winning strategy. The relatively simple ‘high yield’ and ‘low p/e’ strategies also comfortably outperform the broad market. Note that these are all ‘value’ strategies.

This leads O’Shaughnessy to question the legitimacy of the so-called Capital Asset Pricing Model, in which investors are compensated for taking more risk:

“..the higher risk of the high P/Es, price-to-book, price-to-cashflow, and PSRs went uncompensated. Indeed, each of the strategies significantly underperformed the All Stocks Universe.”

Perhaps the market is indeed less efficient than certain academics would have us believe. The world’s most successful investor, Warren Buffett, would seem to think so. As he was quoted in a 1995 issue of Fortune magazine,

“I’d be a bum on the street with a tin cup if the markets were always efficient.”

And note that careful addition of the word “always”. Buffett wasn’t even going so far as to suggest that the markets are never efficient, but rather that the patient investor can take advantage of Mr. Market’s occasional lapses into the realms of absurdity, whether in the form of bullishness or outright despair.

O’Shaughnessy frames the returns from these various ‘growth’ and ‘value’ strategies more explicitly in the chart below.

Graph2842014 Lessons in investment warfare

Special pleaders on the part of ‘growth at any cost’ might argue that the time series is insufficient. But if 52 recent years – easily an investor’s lifetime – taking in at least two grinding bear markets are not enough, how much would be.

Again, the conclusions are clear. Buying stocks on low price-to-sales ratios is a winner, tying with stocks on a low price-to-book ratio with an annualised return over the longer term of 15.95%. Low price-to-cashflow is also a stellar performer. Buying stocks with a high yield also beats the broad market, as does buying stocks with low price / earnings ratios. Again, these are all explicit ‘value’ strategies.

Since we appear to be living through something of a speculative bubble (a bubble inflated quite deliberately by explicit central bank action), it is worth recalling one prior instance of ‘growth’ outperforming. As O’Shaughnessy points out.

“Between January 1, 1997 and March 31, 2000, the 50 stocks from the All Stocks universe with the highest P/E ratios compounded at 46.69 percent per year, turning $10,000 into $34,735 in three years and three months. Other speculative names did equally as well, with the 50 stocks from All Stocks with the highest price-to-book ratios growing a $10,000 investment into $33,248, a compound return of 44.72 percent. All the highest valuation stocks trounced All Stocks over that brief period, leaving those focusing on the shorter term to think that maybe it really was different this time. But anyone familiar with past market bubbles knows that ultimately, the laws of economics reassert their grip on market activity. Investors back in 2000 would have done well to remember Horace’s Ars Poetica, in which he states: “Many shall be restored that are now fallen, and many shall fall that are now in honour.”

 

“For fall they did, and they fell hard. A near-sighted investor entering the market at its peak in March of 2000 would face true devastation. A $10,000 investment in the 50 stocks with the highest price-to-sales ratios from the All Stocks universe would have been worth a mere $526 at the end of March 2003…

 

“You must always consider risk before investing in strategies that buy stocks significantly different from the market. Remember that high risk does not always mean high reward. All the higher-risk strategies are eventually dashed on the rocks..”

This might seem to imply that there is safety simply in the avoidance of explicitly high-risk strategies, but we would go further. We would argue today that central bank bubble-blowing has made the entire market high-risk, with a broad consensus that with interest rates at 300-year lows and bonds hysterically overpriced and facing the prospect of interest rate rises to boot, stocks are now “the only game in town”. We concede that by a process of logic and elimination, selective stocks look way more attractive than most other traditional assets, but the emphasis has to be on that word “selective”. We see almost no attraction in stock markets per se, and we are interested solely in what might be called ‘special situations’ (notably, in ‘value’ and ‘deep value’ strategies) wherever they can be identified throughout the world. We note, in passing, that markets such as those of the US appear to be virtually bereft of such ‘value’ opportunities, whereas those in Asia and Japan seem to offer them in relative abundance. In this financial war, we would prefer to be on the side of the victors. If history is any guide, the identity of the losers seems to be self-evident.

 




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Romney in High Demand, RIP James Brady, Google Snoops Email and Tips Cops: P.M. Links

  • Mitt Romney is
    in high
    demand
     for appearances at GOP congressional campaign
    events. The grass is always greener, ain’t it? In sad sort of way,
    at least.
  • Reagan-era Press Secretary James Brady, of the Brady Handgun
    Violence Prevention Act, passed
    away at 73
    .
  • Google
    snooped
    through a man’s email account and tipped off police
    when they found child pornography.
  • One-hundred and sixty-three new Ebola cases and
    61 deaths
    , but “an
    experimental serum”
    may have saved the lives of several
    Americans.

  • My Parents Open Carry
    is a new children’s book about gun
    rights. Unsurprisingly, lefties are letting the outrage cycle flow
    through them. Jezebel describes it as “nightmarish,”
    while Wonkette
    suggests
    it be retitled Brenna Has Two Nutbar Sociopath
    Gun-Toting Parents
    .
  • The Toledo ban on dangerous tap water is
    over
    after three days. Now how will Ohioans drown their
    misery?
  • Another day in Israel and Gaza, another ceasefire
    quickly ended and bombing resumed
    .
  • Kiev says they were baited there by separatists, Moscow says
    they were seeking asylum:
    Over 300 Ukrainian troops crossed into Russia
    and now the
    countries are in talks about how to handle the
    situation. 
  • Malia Obama was at Lollapalooza this weekend, but kind of

    stuck out
    thanks to her Secret Service detail. I wonder if they
    were carrying guns.

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter,
and don’t forget to
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up
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content.

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Ira Stoll on Why Immigration Reform Is Failing

Sheldon Adelson, Bill Gates,
and Warren Buffett say they want Congress to pass an immigration
reform bill. So does Michael Bloomberg.

On the substantive merits, the issue seems like a slam dunk,
writes Ira Stoll. We are, after all, a nation of immigrants. Both
political parties at least say they realize the need to do
something about the millions of illegal immigrants here in America,
and to prevent our country from losing out by turning away talent
that wants to come here. But at the same time, Stoll explains,
opposition to immigration reform is also bipartisan, including an
“unholy alliance” in which anti-immigrant Republicans have joined
with Democrats allied with labor unions.

View this article.

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Why the Heck Are We Bringing Ebola Patients Into the U.S.?

There’s no cure for Ebola.

Ebola is deadly and contagious.  90% of those who catch it die quickly.

Normally, the extreme lethality of Ebola means that the virus quickly “burns itself out”.  Specifically, if a villager eats an infected fruit bat and comes down with Ebola, it quickly kills the villager and everyone around him … and then the spread stops because it can’t travel to the next village over.

In other words, extreme deadliness of Ebola normally insures that it doesn’t spread very far.

But – for the first time in history – it is now spreading worldwide. As Michael Snyder notes:

#1 As the chart below demonstrates, the spread of Ebola is starting to become exponential…

#2 This is already the worst Ebola outbreak in recorded history by far.

 

#3 The head of the World Health Organization says that this outbreak “is moving faster than our efforts to control it“.

 

#4 The head of Doctors Without Borders says that this outbreak is “out of control“.

 

#5 So far, more than 100 health workers that were on the front lines fighting the virus have ended up contracting Ebola themselves.  This is happening despite the fact that they go to extraordinary lengths to keep from getting the disease.

 

***

 

As Paul Craig Roberts so aptly put it the other day, all it would take is “one cough, one sneeze, one drop of saliva, and the virus is loose“.

As Dr. Sanjay Gupta notes, there have been lapses in safety at the Centers for Disease Control and U.S. hospitals in treating infectious diseases.

So why is the U.S. flying in Ebola patients to be treated on U.S. soil?

Yes, I feel sorry for the American aid workers who were trying to do good in Africa by helping those infected with Ebola.  But the risk of losing containment of this beast is too high.




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Rep. Polis Pulls Anti-Fracking Initiatives in Favor of Compromise

What would "Battlestar Galactica" be like without fracking?In May, we took note of
Colorado Democratic Rep. Jared Polis’
anti-fracking initiatives
in his state, though he sees it more
of a “local control” effort than anti-fracking. Initiatives he
threw his weight and money behind were intended to increase
regulation on fracking in his state and give municipalities the
authority to introduce further restrictions.

His efforts ended up causing some rifts in the Democratic Party
in Colorado, because the Democratic establishment there is not
necessarily anti-fracking. Polis’ push put him at odds with
Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper and Sen. Mark Udall.

Today, Polis and Hickenlooper reached a compromise that will
result in Polis pulling his initiatives in exchange for the
creation of an advisory task force to recommend fracking
regulations to the state’s legislature, where stakeholders from all
sides would give input.

On Hickenlooper’s side, the state will drop a lawsuit against
the town of Longmont. The town had passed its own ban on fracking.
According to
The Hill
, industry representatives also agreed to drop
two pro-fracking initiatives, one of which would have blocked towns
like Longmont from receiving tax revenue from oil and gas
development.

Rep. Polis put out a response on Facebook that read in part:

These immediate steps give me great hope that together we will
forge a solution that works for all of Colorado. Given my renewed
hope that my constituents will be able to shape the statewide
fracking policy through the legislative process as soon as the next
legislative session, I am withdrawing my financial support for the
proposed ballot initiatives. To be clear, I am not giving up this
fight, I will continue to push for greater health and safety for my
constituents through every avenue available to me. My sincere hope
is that the legislature will heed the concerns of thousands of
Coloradans that have demanded reasonable safeguards from oil and
gas development. I want to thank all the community organizers that
have worked tirelessly to bring their concerns to the forefront and
have demanded action on this important issue. There is still a
great amount of work to be done, but today represents real
progress.

There’s a video of their joint press conference here.

As always, when reading about fracking fears, it helps to have
Ron Bailey’s “Top
5 Lies About Fracking”
on hand to dispel some of the myths.

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Post-European Close Buying-Panic Lifts Dow Green For 2014

Despite European weakness, US equity investors decided bailing out BES with taxpayer money means BTFD. As soon as Europe closed, VIX was monkey-hammered lower and stocks took off, first running today's stops, then Friday's highs, then pressing all major indices into the green for August. Notably, "most shorted" stocks were sold hard early on and that provided the ammo for the bounce. VIX was clubbed over 2 vols lower back under 15 as EURJPY became all the fun-durr-mentals stocks needed to surge. Treasury yields rose as stocks rose but 10Y ended the day -0.5bps (30Y +1.5bps). The USD flatlined as modest EUR weakness was offset by GBP/AUD strength. PMs slipped lower as oil and copper gained. Credit markets rallied along with VIX. The Dow closed unch for 2014.

 

Stocks back into the green for August…

 

and Lifted the Dow green for 2014…

 

But US stocks remain red from Thursday's European close – when BES news started to leak…

 

As "most shorted" stocks were squeezed as Europe closed…

 

VIX and Stocks…

 

EURJPY and Stocks…

 

Treasuries ended unch in general weakennig after Europe closed…

 

Commity markets were split with oil and copper gaining but PMs lagging (driven by weakness at the European close)

 

Charts: Bloomberg




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U.S. Government Caught Using Humanitarian HIV Program as a Front to Foster Cuban Dissent

Screen Shot 2014-08-04 at 2.05.26 PMRegular readers of Liberty Blitzkrieg will recall that earlier this year I highlighted how the U.S. government covertly created a “Cuban Twitter” called ZunZuneo in a failed attempt to overthrow the island nation’s regime. The elaborate plot was implemented under the umbrella of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), which is responsible for overseeing billions of dollars in U.S. humanitarian aid. If you need a refresher, check out the post: Conspiracy Fact – How the U.S. Government Covertly Invented a “Cuban Twitter” to Create Revolution.

continue reading

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Spot The "Data Dependent" Fed Policy

“Data dependent” or “making it up as they go along?”

 

 

JPMorgan notes,

Last week’s deluge of data provided a needed update on the state of the U.S. economy, specifically with GDP confirming a reacceleration in growth during the second quarter and the employment report pointing to continued tightening in the labor market. Additionally, the FOMC statement was more eventful than anticipated, with important changes to qualifications on the labor and inflation markets.

 

As the chart above depicts, looking at a variety of metrics including payrolls, the unemployment rate, initial jobless claims, quit and openings rates, and wage and inflation acceleration, Federal Reserve tightening may be warranted in the near to medium term.

Source: JPMorgan




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