It Looks Like Pot Will Soon Be Legal in the Nation’s Capital, Maybe Also in Oregon (Alaska Is Iffier)

Seven weeks before Election Day, a
new Marist poll finds that 65 percent of voters in Washington,
D.C., favor Initiative
71, which would make it legal for adults 21 or older to possess
up to two ounces of marijuana and grow up to six plants at home.
The survey, sponsored by The Washington Post and the
local NBC station, found that just 33 percent of voters opposed the
initiative, with 2 percent undecided. “Voters in the District of
Columbia are poised to follow Colorado and Washington state into a
closely watched experiment to legalize marijuana,” the
Post concludes.
“The results show an electorate unshaken—even emboldened — nine
months after legal marijuana sales began in Colorado and six months
after D.C. lawmakers stripped away jail time for possession,
making it just a $25 offense.”

The initiative’s 2-to-1 advantage is especially impressive
in light of the Yes on 71 campaign’s meager resources. The
Post says the measure’s backers “have almost no money
in their campaign account and may not run a single ad.” Yet
“support seems increasingly hardened.”

The Post notes that “a complete reversal of opinions
among African Americans,” who account for half pf Washington’s
population, helps explain the initiative’s popularity. Although
white residents are still more likely to favor legalization, black
residents are much more inclined to vote that way than they used to
be. Four years ago, 55 percent opposed legalization, and now 56
percent support it.

Concerns about the racially disproportionate impact of marijuana
prohibition probably have a lot to do with that dramatic shift in
opinion. Nationwide, according to a 2013
ACLU report, blacks are about four times as likely to be
arrested for marijuana possession as whites, even though they are
about equally likely to smoke pot. In D.C., blacks are eight
times as likely to be busted for pot. D.C. also has a far
higher marijuana arrest rate than any other jurisdiction in the
country: 846 per 100,000 residents in 2010, compared to 535 in New
York City (D.C.’s closest competitor) and a national average of
256.

Because of restrictions on the policy changes that can be made
through ballot measures in D.C., Initiative 71 does not legalize
commercial production or sale of marijuana, although it does allow
people who grow it at home to transfer up to an ounce at a time
“without remuneration.” Legalization of the cannabis industry would
be left to the D.C. Council, which could be overridden by
Congress.

The
last congressional effort to stymie marijuana reform in D.C.,
led by Rep. Andy Harris (R-Md.), consisted of an amendment that
would have barred the District from spending public money “to enact
or carry out any law, rule, or regulation to legalize or otherwise
reduce penalties associated with the possession, use, or
distribution” of a controlled substance. The House approved Harris’
amendment in June, but it was
dropped from the final version of the spending bill. Harris

plans to try again if Initiative 71 passes.

The
prospects for legalization in Alaska look considerably dimmer.
A Public Policy Polling
survey conducted at the end of July put support for Measure 2,
that state’s legalization initiative, at 44 percent, with 49
percent opposed. In a
survey by the same organization last May, 48 percent of voters
favored Measure 2 and 45 percent were against it.

Support for legalization in Oregon seems to fall somewhere
between the numbers in D.C. and Alaska. Last May a
DHM Research survey commissioned by Oregon Public Broadcasting
found that 54 percent of voters favored “legalizing marijuana for
adults 21 and older,” as  Measure 91 would do; 38 percent
were against legalization, and 9 percent were undecided. A

June poll by SurveyUSA found that 51 percent of voters favored
legalization, including commercial production and distribution,
while 41 percent were opposed and 8 percent were undecided.

Amendment 2, which
would make Florida the first Southern state to approve medical use
of marijuana, is also ahead in the polls. As a constitutional
amendment, it needs 60 percent support
to pass. A Quinnipiac
University Poll conducted in July put support at a whopping 88
percent, which helps explain the opposition’s
hilarious hysteria.

I considered “Where
Pot Might Be Legal Next” in a column last July.