With less than 50 days until the 2014
midterm election, the race for the biggest prize—control of the
Senate—is running awfully close. Republicans, who are almost
certain to pick up several seats in November, ran ahead in most of
the forecasts throughout the summer.
But in recent weeks, Democrats have narrowed the gap. The
Washington Post’s election model now gives Democrats a 51
percent chance to
hold the Senate. The current RealClearPolitics no-toss-up map
projects that Republicans will end up with 50 seats in the
Senate. Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight model gives Republicans a
53 percent chance of picking up the Senate.
Essentially, it’s a dead heat, and despite early predictions of
a GOP wave, it looks rather like voters aren’t particularly
enthusiastic about either party this year. Obama’s approval ratings
are low, but Republicans don’t have much to run on except
disapproval of the president. In a variety of ways, it’s rough
terrain for both parties.
Democrats increasingly have an edge on social
issues. Opinions have shifted over the decades, and voting
coalitions have changed, and there are
multiple
signs that, after decades in which social and cultural issues
favored Republicans, Democrats are finally gaining an edge. For one
thing, the party is highlighting its stances on contraception,
abortion, and gay marriage. In Colorado, for example, Sen. Mark
Udall’s campaign is built almost entirely on social issues. It
might even be working: Udall currently has a 3.7 point lead on his
opponent, Republican Cory Gardener, according to the
RealClearPolitics (RCP) poll
average. But even if Udall loses, it’s clear that social
issues—and contraception in particular—are where Democrats feel
very comfortable fighting. That Democrats want this fight now, in a
midterm election with an older and more conservative electorate,
suggests that the politics are only going to shift further in their
direction in 2016.
The other sign that the ground is shifting is that Republicans
aren’t engaging on these fights—at least not like they used to. In
Florida, a swing state that frequently offers a glimpse of the
national mood, Republican Gov. Rick Scott declined to respond to a
question about same-sex marriage. Republicans are openly discussing
a
push to make contraception available over-the-counter. Social
issues used to be the wedge concerns that Republicans used to split
Democratic voters.
President Obama is a drag on his own party.
There are two related parts to this. The first is that—and this
will be news to almost no one—Republicans really don’t
like the president, and they plan to vote accordingly. According to
a Washington Post-ABC News poll from
earlier this month, 62 percent of Republicans say that when
they cast their votes for Congress later this year, one reason
“will be to express opposition to Obama.”
That brings us to the second part, which is that Democrats
aren’t particularly enthusiastic about their own side. Less
than half of Democrats—just 42 percent—say that their congressional
vote will be intended to support President Obama, according to the
same Post-ABC poll. Overall, as RCP’s polling average
shows, President Obama’s approval rating has been growing steadily
worse for more than a year (with a spike last fall during the
Obamacare exchange fiasco). RCP’s average now puts disapproval at
53.9 percent, two points shy of the high it hit in November of
2013. The big concern this election amongst Democrats is that their
voters simply won’t show up, hence Bill Clinton’s
message in Iowa this week: Democrats should not sit this one
out.
The economy isn’t great for Democrats—but Republicans
can’t seem to capitalize on it. By most accounts, the
still-sluggish economy is the top issue for voters this year. And
yet in the states and races where it matters most, neither party
has the advantage.
Politico
polled likely voters in close races about which party was
trusted more to handle the economy and found respondents were
split: 36 percent picked Republicans, 36 percent picked Democrats,
and another 28 percent said they weren’t sure. Voters in
battleground states, which tend to be more conservative, may not
have a clear preference for which party they trust on the economy,
but a majority seem to be frustrated by President Obama’s handling
of economic issues: In the same Politico
poll, 57 percent disapproved of his “economic
leadership.”
It’s difficult to discern what the Republican party is
actually for at this point. When conservative
flagship publication National Review runs an
unsigned editorial pushing Republicans to propose an actual
governing agenda—to just have one, at all—you know there’s a
problem. It’s possible, of course, to find individual Republican
legislators—folks like Mike Lee and Rand Paul in the Senate, or
Paul Ryan in the House—who have strong, identifiable policy
commitments. But as a party, it’s hard to identify an agenda other
than opposing President Obama, and whatever it is he wants to do
(except, possibly,
escalate American involvement in conflict in the Middle
East).
Look at the continuing resolution deal that’s moving through
Congress right now: As Nicole Kaeding of the Cato Institute
notes, it takes a stand on almost nothing, extending the
authorization of the Ex-Im bank, declining to make the Internet tax
moratorium, and keeping discretionary spending levels constant.
Avoiding a serious shutdown fight was necessary after last year’s
fall showdown, but it’s hard to find an election-year agenda
anywhere.
To some extent, that just reflects the fractured and uncertain
interests of the party’s voters, who don’t quite seem to know what
they want either. But GOP voters haven’t exactly been given a lot
to latch onto in the Obama era. The long-promised
Obamacare replacement plan, for example, never arrived, and
now Republicans politicians don’t really know how to respond to
questions about what to do with the law’s coverage expansion in
place.
What we have, then, is a sort of “meh” election. Democrats are
attempting to turn out their base by pushing them to vote against
Republicans on social issues, and Republicans are attempting to
motivate their voters by focusing entirely on opposition to
President Obama. But there’s almost no enthusiasm
for either party.