Elizabeth Whelan, Fierce Fighter Against Junk Science, Is Dead.

WhelanElizabeth Whelan, founder of
the American Council on Science and
Health
, died yesterday. Whelan had devoted her life to
combatting the misinformation and disinformation that are
all-too-often peddled by activist charlatans. I could count on her
and ACSH to steer me right when reporting on public health,
environmental, medical, and regulatory issues.

Whelan’s characteristic scientific insight is fully on display
in her co-authored 1984 Reason article, “Sweet
Truth
,” which called into question the validity of animal
testing for determining the likelihood that various substances
cause cancer in human beings. She used the FDA’s attempt to ban the
sweetener saccharin to illustrate just how wrong-headed and
unscientific reliance on such tests is. After reviewing all of the
data, she concluded: “Saccharin presents a risk to humans that in
all likelihood is negligible, if not nonexistent.”

The article concluded:

In the tradition of individual rights and limited government, it
is the business of government to protect individuals from being
harmed by others. It is not the business of government to prevent
individuals from pursuing actions that may result in harms only to
themselves. Such restrictions erode freedom of choice and
individual responsibility, essential ingredients of a free
society.

Just so.

Thirty years after the FDA first tried to ban it, saccharin was

delisted
in 2000 from the U.S. National Toxicology Program’s
Report on Carcinogens, where it had been listed since 1981
as a substance reasonably anticipated to be a human carcinogen. The
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency finally
got around
in 2010 to agreeing to no longer list saccharin and
its salts as hazardous.

The notice
of Whelan’s death
over at ACSH notes:

Beth was a giant in the annals of public health. With
postgraduate degrees from Yale and Harvard, she grew increasingly
frustrated with the discrepancy between what she knew to be
fact-based scientific truth, and the distorted information that the
public was hearing and reading from the media. Unlike many of her
colleagues, however, she resolved to do something about it. That’s
how ACSH was born.

By sheer force of will — despite her youth and inexperience with
any sort of activism —she recruited several towering figures in
epidemiology, science and public health. These included Nobel Peace
Prize laureate Dr. Norman Borlaug, father of the Green
Revolution—the man who is credited with saving more lives than any
other human being— and Dr. Fredrick Stare, the founding chairman of
the Harvard School of Public Health Nutrition Department. Other
scientists and policy experts, now numbering close to 350, flocked
to join the nascent nonprofit’s Board of Scientific Advisors and
Policy Experts.

At the same time, she assembled and led a coterie of scientific
professionals at the ACSH headquarters in New York City. Before
long, publication after publication—all strictly devoted to the
concepts of sound science and independent peer review—began to
flow. These continue to this day. Every effort she inspired
promoted the mantra of evidence-based science, while at the same
time countering the hysteria and hyperbole spread by the media and
agenda-driven activists. Beth firmly believed that the nonsense and
destructive myths posing as science were only allowed to exist
because of what she termed “mute science”: competent, expert
scientists failing to speak up to dispute the junk science advocacy
agenda that permeated the media. Beth led the way in urging
scientists to speak out against the fallacies that are all too
pervasive in our culture.

Beth’s legacy will live on long past her all-too-brief sojourn
on Earth. Her commitment to the precepts of sound science have been
passed on to all who knew her.

She will be sorely missed.

Disclosure: I have worked on a couple of projects for ACSH in
the past, including my report,
Scrutinizing Industry-Funded Science: The Crusade Against
Conflicts of Interest
.

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Atlas Shrugged: Who Is John Galt? Opens Today

The final installment of the Atlas Shrugged movie
trilogy opens today at theaters across the country.

Go here for the
official site and to find theaters near you.

Reason TV attended the Las Vegas premiere of Who is John
Galt?
last week. Click above to watch our report from the red
carpet.

We interviewed the producer of the series, John Aglialoro, about
finishing the project, Ayn Rand’s continuing influence, and how to
beat back crony capitalism. Take a look below:

We also interviewed Harmon Kaslow, the other leader producer on
the project, about “Why the Internet Has Hollywood Very Scared.”
Watch here:

Reason‘s Brian Doherty reported from the set of “Who is
John Galt?” back in March.

Read our Ayn Rand archive here.

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Obama’s ISIS War is Not Only Illegal, it Makes George W. Bush Look Like a Constitutional Scholar

Rudderless and without a compass, the American ship of state continues to drift, guns blazing.

– Andrew J. Bacevich, the Boston University political science professor and former Army colonel who lost his son in the Iraq war in 2007, in a recent Reuters article.

I have spent the past several days outlining my deep concerns about the “ISIS crisis” and Obama’s willingness to employ extreme propaganda in order to once again embark on another poorly thought out military campaign here and here. What I have also come to realize is that his latest war plan is brazenly illegal and unconstitutional.

While critics have been questioning the legality of U.S. military campaigns consistently since the end of World War II, one trend has become increasingly clear. With each new President and each new war we have witnessed those who hold the office act more and more like dictators, and less and less like constitutional executives.


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Stimulus Spending Data Is About to Disappear

In January of 2009, just days after Barack Obama
had assumed the presidency, he announced his intention to pass a
massive fiscal stimulus within just a few weeks. He recognized some
resistance on the part of the public to such an ambitious plan, and
he understood it, he
said
, which is “why this recovery plan will include
unprecedented measures that will allow the American people to hold
my Administration accountable.”

Among those measures would be a website to track the spending,
open to all. “Every American will be able to see how and where we
spend taxpayer dollars by going to a new website called
recovery.gov,” Obama said. “restoring transparency is not only the
surest way to achieve results” but also the best way to earn back
the public’s lost trust in government.”

All of this would be part of a newly invigorated effort “to root
out waste, inefficiency, and unnecessary spending in our
government.”

After the passage of the stimulus, that website went live, and
for the last several years, it has provided a valuable resource to
journalists, policy analysts, critics, and supporters of the law.
But now the data is about to disappear. Unless something changes,
all of the relevant tracking information will disappear at the end
of the month, because the government is dropping its contract with
the company that manages and keeps the information.
From The Washington Post
:

The data will disappear because the government board that
oversees the Web site and ensures the stimulus money is spent
properly is not renewing its license with Dun & Bradstreet, a
major U.S. financial firm that assigns an identification number to
all entities doing business with the federal government. When the
license expires at the end of this month, those identification
numbers — and other associated data — will no longer be available
to the government.

No numbers, no way to track the money….Nancy DiPaolo, chief of
congressional and intergovernmental affairs for the Recovery
Accountability and Transparency Board, said that it was not
fiscally prudent to renew the license and that the board would be
forced to take down the recipient data. The cost to renew the
license would be between $900,000 and $1.4 million.

Under the terms of its sole-source contract with the government,
Dun & Bradstreet owns the actual data on the numbers used to
identify and track contractors through the stimulus, according to
the Post. “Once the contract ends, the information must be
deleted from government databases.”

On the surface, at least, this sounds like the federal
government—and taxpayers—got taken by a contract intended to create
long-term lock-in. As with so many of the stimulus dollars it
tracked, it was money that was probably not well spent. 

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Airstrikes Are Like ‘Casual Sex,’ Says Former NSA Head Michael Hayden

Michael Hayden, former director of both the National Security
Agency and the CIA, has been offering his wisdom on warfare in
Iraq, and it’s … interesting. Hayden
told
U.S. News & World Report that President
Obama’s plan to try and bomb ISIS out of Syria
instead of sending in ground troops
has “all of the attraction
of casual sex.” 

A ringing endorsement, right? Wrong! Hayden is no fan of the
casual sex, and no fan Obama’s plan, which he said “seems to offer
gratification but with very little commitment.” 

“I guess he’s right,”
quipped Jessica Roy
at New York. “Unlike ground
troops, drones don’t spend the night.” 

Of course it’s all fun and games until you stop and think about
the fact that this man is describing killing people as erotic
and gratifying and the failure to send American
troops to die immediately as an irresponsibility.

Hayden continued: “We need to be wary of a strategy that puts
emphasis on air power and air power alone.” If you bomb it, then
you gotta put a ring on it, obviously. 

More on Hayden’s foreign policy agenda: 

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@hooper_fit

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S&P Slips To 4-Week Lows, Russell Red For 2014 As Rate Hike Fears Trigger Selling

With BofAML, Goldman, and now JPMorgan all bringing forward their 'liftoff' expectations for rates, US equity and bond markets are starting to quake a little. The Russell 2000 is now back in the red for 2014 and all but Trannies are red for September. The S&P is back to Aug 20 levels as 10Y yields push 15bps higher on the week to 2-month highs over 2.60%.

 

S&P loses 2,000 and slides to 4-week lows…

 

Pushing all but Trannies red for September…

 

and Russell red for 2014

 

But bonds and stocks have a long way to go to converge…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

*  *  *

We already showed BofAML's warnings; here is JPMorgan's

Regarding our own Fed outlook, we now look for a first hike at the June meeting next year, which is both earlier, and more precise, than our prior call of Q3. As the timing of the first hike draws closer, it becomes appropriate to convey our outlook by meeting, rather than by quarter. The Fed has shown a propensity to make important decisions at meetings that are followed by press conferences. In next year's calendar such a meeting in Q3 does not occur until late September, which could be too late given the ongoing improvement in the labor market. (Of course, they could, and maybe should, switch to having press conferences at every meeting). Another factor motivating an earlier first move is the apparent revision to the exit principles. The old principles had halting reinvestments and large-scale reserve draining occurring prior to the first rate hike, both of which would have been "baby tightening steps." With those steps no longer likely to occur before the first rate hike, the timing of that hike should be pulled forward. Finally, Fed rhetoric has turned marginally more hawkish in recent months.

 

We see the first hike in June as a 25 basis point increase in the target funds rate corridor, to 25-50 basis points. We see subsequent moves in September and December bringing the corridor to 75-100 basis points by year-end. (Given the FOMC's convention of rounding the funds rate target up to the nearest quarter point, this would put our "shadow FOMC dot" at 100bp). Now that the public seems to be making its peace with the fact that rate hikes are coming, the question has increasingly become the pace of those hikes. We think the Fed can afford to stick with its plan the normalize rates gradually, at least initially. The first few hikes will involve some delicate issues for the plumbing of the interaction of the Fed balance sheet with the banking system, which should warrant caution. Moreover our economic forecast does not have enough inflation pressures next year to force them into a more aggressive tightening pace in 2015. We see a somewhat more aggressive pace in 2016, with the funds rate reaching 2.5% by year-end.




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The Game Of Thrones & The Game Of Markets

Submitted by Ben Hunt via Salient Partners' Epsilon Theory blog,

A few brief thoughts on an Epsilon Theory connection between modern capital markets and the NFL (and between Central Bankers and Roger Goodell). The connection is solipsism – a pathological egocentrism where reality is defined by an individual’s mental perceptions and constructs.

For individuals like Goodell and Yellen we’re talking about good old-fashioned individual solipsism. These are people who have never been proven wrong about anything in their professional lives. I know that sounds weird to professional investors and allocators, because we are demonstrably wrong about something every single freaking day, and it’s a hard concept to describe effectively to someone who’s never lived within a sheltered organization where empirical outcomes are either pre-ordained or immaterial. But both Goodell and Yellen have spent their entire professional careers as the modern equivalents of cloistered monks or nuns, the former within the Holy Order of the National Football League and the latter within the High Church of UC Berkeley.

It’s wonderfully pleasant to live within these worlds without external consequence, where your mental constructs and pronouncements receive constant positive reinforcement, but the inevitable result is that you begin to believe that your mental constructs ARE reality. Roger Goodell truly believes that everything he has done and announced, most recently his appointment of an “independent” investigator, is obviously the right and correct course of action, and he has no idea why these actions and announcements are being questioned. He has no idea why his world is crumbling. Similarly, Janet Yellen is not being disingenuous when she talks about her ability to control “macroprudential” outcomes. In her mind (and in the minds of everyone else in today’s academic Fed), these theories ARE reality. Drain the $5 trillion in banking system reserves without market consequence? Sure, we’ve got a theory for that. No problem. As Yul Brynner would have put it in Cecil B. DeMille’s “The Ten Commandments”: So let it be written. So let it be done.  

For social constructions like markets or professional sports leagues or any self-contained social world, we’re talking about a different version of solipsism – collective solipsism. I’ve written about this idea in the Epsilon Theory note “A Dogmatic Slumber”, so I won’t repeat all that here. Collective solipsism is what overwhelming Common Knowledge looks like. It’s the annihilation of an individual’s perception of reality in favor of a group perception of reality. It’s an entirely natural reaction of the human social animal to certain strategic interactions, i.e., games. It’s what I mean when I say that we are at an asymptotic peak in the social influence of the Narrative of Central Bank Omnipotence

When does collective solipsism fail? When does the story break? When it comes into conflict with a larger external social structure, with a larger strategic interaction. The collective solipsism of the NFL crumbles when it runs headlong into the larger political and social structure of the United States, which – amazingly enough – has 300+ million citizens who don’t play Fantasy Football, who have no idea who Ray Rice is, who listen to owners Bob Kraft or John Mara and think they’re from Mars, and who don’t hang on every word of THE Commissioner. But they’ve all seen or heard about the video. They all care about the larger issue of domestic violence. They all think they’re being lied to. And there are powerful political and economic interests in the larger game who see this conflict as working to their advantage. That’s when the story breaks.

The collective solipsism of modern markets is a much bigger game still, and will require a much larger shock and external social structure to unwind the Common Knowledge structure at the heart of all this. I can’t tell you when any of this will happen, but there are only a few social structures large enough to fit the bill. There is no more important task for risk management than monitoring those structures, and that’s what I’m trying to do with Epsilon Theory.

*  *  *

An invitation to attend a Salient Webinar I’ll be presenting next Thursday, September 18th at 2pm ET, titled: “The Game of Thrones and the Game of Markets”. I’ll be tying together various threads from past Epsilon Theory notes, with the goal of showing how to listen to financial news and analysts to detect Narratives. Please note that the presentation is geared for financial advisors, brokers, and investment professionals, and it qualifies for one hour of CFP/CIMA®, CIMC®, or CPWA® CE credit if you care about such things. Invitation attached and registration link here.




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3 of my favorite low-tax places to retire

Retirement Panama Philippines 3 of my favorite low tax places to retire

September 12, 2014
Sovereign Valley Farm, Chile

If you’re thinking about retiring to Florida for the warm weather, lack of state income tax, and plentiful medical care facilities, you might want to reconsider.

A 68-year old Florida retiree recently filed a lawsuit against Orlando-based Florida Hospital after doctors there allegedly mixed up her lab results and told her she had terminal cancer.

The woman suffered in agony for months believing that she was going to die; then the hospital decided to treat her by removing part of her rectum.

It turned out she was perfectly healthy.

Now, accidents can happen anywhere. It’s an unfortunate part of the medical industry.

But the reality is that Florida has its obvious flaws. And it is by no means the only place in the world that has a claim to all the features of a top retirement destination.

The world is truly a big place, and there are a lot of options out there.

When you retire overseas your money can often go further, so a pension that might have you eating baked beans out of a tin can in the United States can buy you a gourmet dinner elsewhere.

You’ll enjoy a better quality of life in a country where medical costs aren’t at the outrageous levels that they are in the US.

With all that money you save you’ll be able to catch up on new experiences that you missed out on while you were working to support your family.

Here are three options across three continents that each offer their own benefits, but have at least one prominent feature in common—a favorable tax regime so that you get to keep more of what you receive in your golden years.

Philippines

The Philippines is one of the easiest places in the world to retire to.

Residency is incredibly easy to attain for retirees. If you’re over 35, a refundable bank deposit of just $20,000 – or in some cases even less – qualifies you residency in the Philippines.

If you’re over 50 and have a pension income of at least $800 a month, a bank deposit of as little as $10,000 will suffice.

Income you have remitted to the country from overseas, such as any pension income you may have, is free from tax.

English is widely spoken and almost universally understood, so you won’t have to struggle with a new language.

It doesn’t hurt that the Philippines is an incredibly beautiful place with a low cost of living that allows you to stretch your pension longer there and truly have an enjoyable time

Andorra

If you were hoping to spend your golden years reading the classics while sipping espresso in a Parisian café, Andorra may be your back door solution.

Andorra is not part of the EU, and officially not part of the borderless Schengen area, but having residency there gives you a low-tax backdoor option to having a de facto Europe-wide residency.

While there’s no official retirement residency program, you can become a “passive resident” of Andorra just as long as you’re not earning a living within Andorra.

Qualifying for Andorran residency comes with a steeper price tag; one option requires an investment of 400,000 euros in the country (about USD $520,000).

This amount can be applied towards the purchase of a home, however, and housing in Andorra is quite reasonably priced.

Andorra is one of my favorite destinations in Europe: clean, safe, and efficient. The food is high quality, the air is pristine, and if you love the outdoors, it’s a tough place to beat… especially if you live to ski.

Panama

Panama is increasingly becoming a place to be for retirees due to its yearlong sunny weather, affordable cost of living, inexpensive (yet high quality) medical care, and close proximity to north America.

It’s incredibly easy to gain residency in Panama, and you can technically “retire” on a pensionado visa at age 18.

Panama is also one of a handful of places where US retirees can have their social security funds directly deposited.

If you retire to Panama, you can actually have your monthly stipend sent directly to a local Panamanian bank account. And there’s absolutely no local tax levied on it whatsoever.

Don’t spend your retirement worrying about how you’re going to pay your bills, or making decisions about whether to buy food or medicine.

Consider taking advantage of lifestyle arbitrage opportunities that exist overseas and enjoy a better and more exciting retirement abroad.

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