Steven Greenhut: A Welcome Softening of California’s Tough-on-Crime Approach

Steven Greenhut writes that
when he moved to California during the 1998 governor’s race, he was
shocked. Democrat Gray Davis and Republican Dan Lungren were trying
to outdo each other on who would more harshly punish criminals.
“(Davis) would give judges discretion to sentence 14-year-olds to
death; he would let them consider supporting non-unanimous jury
verdicts,” reported The New York Times. “He
considered Singapore – a country that executes drug offenders – ‘a
good starting point.'” Sixteen years later, Californians are in the
midst of another governor’s race, but crime-and-punishment hasn’t
grabbed much attention, but Greenhut writes that it should: If a
piece of legislation titled Proposition 47 passes, it will be
another sign that the days are over of winning political points by
promising to execute 14-year-olds.

View this article.

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Welcome to Berlin, Yankee! Hope You Brought a Mattress for Your Money!

There are an estimated 7.6 million Americans living in foreign
countries, give or take. They come in all shapes and sizes, but
there are some broad types—young people in their 20s flinging
themselves into the world to teach English, work for nonprofits,
start businesses and/or seek adventure; peak-age professionals
working for international companies or institutions; U.S. military
personnel and their families; dual passport-holders more tethered
to their second nationality; graying bohemians who never figured
out how to go back; and even the occasional
retiree
making their Social Security checks go farther.

Generally absent from the expat cohort are the
Mitt Romney-style super-rich
who were the target of the

Foreign Account Tax Compliant Act of 2010
(FATCA), a terrible
law that forces all Americans (and their spouses) with
foreign-based financial holdings of more than $10,000 to engage in
absurdly detailed IRS reporting or face punitively steep penalties,
while also forcing foreign financial institutions to rat on their
American clients and even perform collections on behalf of Uncle
Sam. All for the prize of collecting a very small sum in extra tax
receipts—an estimated $1 billion or so per year, or enough to fund
the federal government for about two-and-a-half hours.

The super-rich have reacted like the super-rich do: either by
complying (why not, they’re rich!), or by parking their money into
what few countries and institutions that still refuse to do the
bidding of the Internal Revenue Service.

But what about our initial groups of expats? They’re screwed, as
a new Wall Street Journal
report
makes infuriatingly clear. Excerpt:

It isn’t what William Hart expected when he moved to Berlin from
North Carolina nearly four years ago. This spring, the 24-year-old
e-commerce analyst said he was rejected for an online brokerage
account by Deutsche Bank AG, although he has a checking
account there and worked as an intern at the company. In addition,
a smaller local bank turned him down for an online checking
account, and he says Wells Fargo & Co., his U.S.
bank, closed his brokerage account when it learned he lives in
Germany. […]

“I seem to exist in a no-man’s-land,” said Mr. Hart. “Can it
really be that expats are facing such massive obstacles in basic
financial matters?” […]

Among those affected by the tightened policies are retirees of
modest means in communities around Lake Chapala in Mexico, where an
estimated 10,000 Americans live. “It hit people out of the blue,”
said Ann Lewis, 75, a former small-business owner from New Jersey,
who was notified in late May that her account with Banamex USA, a
unit of Citigroup Inc., would be closed this past June
30. […] Ms. Lewis said she found Mexican banks expensive and
harder to work with: Checks can take weeks to clear while exchange
rates fluctuate, she said, and wire transfers can each cost $45 or
more.

Judith Furukawa, an American living in Dubai who has been an
expat for nearly 15 years, is willing to pay fees to wire money
from her U.S. account in Pennsylvania—but her U.S. bank no longer
accepts wire requests from overseas.

Americans abroad are also encountering troubles with U.S.-based
investment accounts. In recent months, firms including Fidelity
Investments, Charles Schwab Corp., T. Rowe Price
Group Inc. and others have told overseas investors and
advisers they may no longer buy or trade mutual funds.

For Allen Cutler, a U.S. citizen who has lived in the
Philippines for 30 years and said he had an account at T. Rowe
Price for two decades, the restriction is “very unsettling, leaving
me with the feeling that more is to follow.”


Whole thing here
.

All of this was 100 percent predictable at the time of the law’s
passage, and has been very well covered in the press (including the

news
that as of today, the application fee for revoking U.S.
citizenship—which record numbers of Americans have been doing—has
been jacked up by the federal government from $450 to $2,350).

The plain truth is that U.S. politicians just do not care that
their invasive laws screw over many millions of Americans while
gratuitously pissing off friendly countries and foreign investors
in the United States, all for the joy of funding the federal
government for half an afternoon. Repealing FATCA should be on the
front-burner of any politician claiming to stand for limited
government.   

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Women’s Love for Barack Obama Wanes

Women’s support for President Obama has always
outpaced men’s, but this is
one gender gap that’s shrinking
, according to new polling
data.

The latest
Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll
, conducted September 3-7,
found that women’s support for the president is flagging,
especially when it comes to foreign policy. In August, 46 percent
said they approved of the way the president was handling foreign
affairs, compared to only 33 percent this month. (This poll was
taken as Republicans were blasting the president for being
weak on the Islamic State and right before Obama stepped up his
warmongering game, however, so this is probably not a terribly
heartening finding for those uninterested in Iraq War 3.0.)

Women’s support for Democrats in general has also flagged since
August. From the Wall Street Journal

(The poll) found that women’s Democratic preference had shrunk
to a 47%-40% margin — down from 51% -37% a month earlier. The swing
was especially sharp among white women, who gave Democrats a 4
point edge in August; in the new poll, Republicans enjoyed 48%-40%
advantage.

It is hard to assess what accounts for that shift but, if it
proves a durable trend, the stakes are high. GOP pollster Bill
McInturff said that maintaining support among women is critical for
Democrats in the midterm elections, or else “a difficult cycle
becomes a really terrible cycle for Democrats.”

The poll also found that women’s feelings about the Democratic
Party have soured, as 39% expressed positive feelings toward the
party, down from 44% in June. 

Yet despite women’s lessening of enthusiasm for the Dems, voters
still believe they have better stances on women’s issues. The poll
showed that 45 percent (of male and female voters) said they were
more confident in Democrats ability to “look out for the interests
of women,” compared to 17 percent who trusted Republicans more on
this front. The 28-point gap on this question was the widest of any
in the recent poll. 

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Federal Judge Strikes Down Ohio ‘False’ Speech Law, Rules for Susan B. Anthony List

In its unanimous June 2014 ruling in Susan B.
Anthony List v. Driehaus
, the U.S. Supreme Court held that
the anti-abortion group Susan B. Anthony List had every right to
mount a First Amendment challenge to an Ohio law which criminalizes
“false” political speech. In 2010, SBA List had been hauled before
the Ohio Elections Commission on charges of violating that law when
it attempted to run billboard ads opposing the reelection of Rep.
Steve Driehaus (D). According to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the
6th Circuit, however, SBA List did not have standing to file suit
because it could not demonstrate “an imminent threat of
future prosecution.”

In its 9-0 decision, the Supreme Court rejected the 6th
Circuit’s specious reasoning. “The threat of future enforcement of
the false statement statute is substantial,” declared the majority
opinion of Justice Clarence Thomas. Indeed, Thomas observed, “the
specter of enforcement is so substantial that the owner of the
billboard refused to display SBA’s message after receiving a letter
threatening Commission proceedings. On these facts, the prospect of
future enforcement is far from ‘imaginary or speculative.'”

In response, Susan B. Anthony List promptly moved forward with
its First Amendment case against the state. Yesterday the group
scored its first victory when the U.S. District Court for the
Southern District of Ohio, Western Division, declared the state law

to be unconstitutional
. Here’s how that court framed its
decision:

Lies have no place in the political arena and serve no purpose
other than to undermine the integrity of the democratic
process.  The problem is that, at times, there is no clear way
to determine whether a political statement is a lie or the
truth.  What is certain, however, is that we do not want the
Government (i.e., the Ohio Elections Commission) deciding what is
political truth — for fear that the Government might persecute
those who criticize it.  Instead, in a democracy, the voters
should decide.  And thus today the Court must decide whether
Ohio’s political false-statements laws are the least restrictive
means of ensuring fair elections.  The short answer is no.

The short answer is correct. In this case, the Ohio Elections
Commission, by a party-line vote, said there was “probable cause”
to believe that SBA List was going to lie. The evidence? SBA List
wanted to run billboard ads that charged Rep. Driehaus with
supporting “tax-payer funded abortion” by voting for the Patient
Protection and Affordable Care Act. But is this even a lie? Not
exactly, as I
noted
in a previous column:

The content of that proposed billboard message is certainly
debatable. The SBA List argues that while the health care law
purports to segregate insurance payments for abortion from other
federal funding, “the segregation rule is a mere accounting
gimmick, because money is obviously fungible; federal funds are
still being used to help buy abortion-inclusive coverage.” As the
old saying goes, reasonable minds may differ on whether or not that
counts as a persuasive reading of the health care law.

But Rep. Driehaus did not exhibit the signs of a reasonable
mind. He objected to the conservative group’s characterization of
his actions and—instead of taking his case straight the
voters—filed a complaint with the Ohio Elections Commission (OEC),
charging the Susan B. Anthony List with attempting to spread
political lies. A three-member panel of the OEC, with two Democrats
in the majority and one Republican in dissent, agreed there was
“probable cause” to believe the billboard ads might violate the
law. In the meantime, the billboard company, also facing the threat
of legal action, refused to run the ads. With the election now less
than a month away, the political speech of the Susan B. Anthony
List was effectively suppressed.

In short, the state law granted political appointees the power
to suppress political speech—a clear First Amendment violation. The
district court got it right.

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Illinois Democrats Push Higher Traffic Fines to Pay for Police Body Cameras, Dash Cams

Illinois police checking speedsEvents in Ferguson,
Missouri
, last month have led some legislators to finally
acknowledge the necessity of cameras for cops—both body cameras and
dash cameras, neither of which are yet ubiquitous. Unlike the
“free” military gear from the feds, cameras for cops cost, and
Democrats in Illinois want those cameras paid for through higher
fines. 
Via the Associated Press:

State Rep. Jehan Gordon-Booth, a Peoria Democrat, introduced a
bill allowing police departments to apply for grants to purchase
either body cameras or video recording equipment for squad cars.
She told reporters in Springfield the proposal would be funded by
an additional $6 surcharge on fines for criminal or traffic offense
convictions, which she estimates would bring in $4 million to $6
million annually.

Gordon-Booth and other backers of the bill may have found it
impossible to avoid all the news coming out of Ferguson, but they
did manage to avoid the parts that threaten their bread and butter,
like Radley Balko’s expose at The Washington Post, which

revealed
how law enforcement agencies in the St. Louis area use
petty law enforcement and the fines associated with it to run their
own “fiefdoms.”

Body cameras and dash cams are important tools for policing—they
protect residents from police abuse and police officers from false
accusations. But as police departments enjoy military gear, cutting
edge tech, and all kinds of generous benefits and privileges, local
and state governments need to find money for police cameras in
already existing budgets, not look to put the
squeeze
even further on
poor and marginalized
communities to pay for them.

At least one Illinois legislator gets it. Jim Durkin, the
republican leader in the Illinois House, supports body cameras but
told the AP he was concerned about using a fee increase to pay for
them.

h/t Mark Sletten

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Oil Price Plunge? It’s The Global Economy, Stupid!

The decline in the price of oil – in the face of surging geopolitical pandemonium – has been lauded as indicative of both US’ awesomeness in energy independence and a tax cut for Americans… but, as the following chart suggests, there may be another – much more realistic – explanation for why oil is plunging… demand!

 

World GDP expectations for 2014 just tumbled to their lowest since estimates started…

 

Maybe – just maybe – that explains the price of oil…

 

Charts: Bloomberg




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No Money, No Problem: You Can Now Lease An iPhone With Nothing Out Of Pocket

Subprime cars, subprime houses, and now subprime iPhones… on layaway.

Exclusive for iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus Unlimited Data, Talk and Text for only $50 per month

 

New iPhone For Life Plan allows consumers to get the iPhone 6 for $20/month, iPhone 6 Plus for $25/month, both for $0 money down and guarantees a new device every two years

 

Sprint is proud to offer iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, the biggest advancements in iPhone history, beginning on Friday, Sept. 19. Demonstrating the best value in wireless Sprint will offer the Sprint Simply Unlimited Plan exclusively for iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus, giving new and existing customers unlimited data, talk and text while on the Sprint network for only $50 per month. Sprint will allow iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus customers to connect to its fast LTE network, including Sprint Spark, an enhanced LTE service. Customers can pre-register starting today at http://ift.tt/KNEyES and pre-orders begin on September 12 at http://ift.tt/KNEyES, Sprint retail stores or through Sprint Telesales at 1-800-Sprint.

 

In addition, Sprint introduced the iPhone for Life Plan, the most economical way to get any new iPhone 6 or iPhone 6 Plus. iPhone 6 is only $20 per month for 24 months for a 16GB model, and iPhone 6 Plus is only $25 per month for 24 months for a 16GB model – there are no out-of-pocket costs and the plan guarantees a new device every two years. At the end of 24 months, customers in good standing can upgrade, purchase the leased phone or continue leasing on a month-to-month basis.

 

“We have made a commitment to offer the best value in wireless to any individual, couple or family, and we are excited to offer our customers the innovative iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus with an exclusive unlimited plan,” said Marcelo Claure, Sprint CEO. “In addition, we’re proud to introduce a revolutionary new way for American consumers to acquire the iPhone 6 and iPhone 6 Plus. Our iPhone for Life Plan allows customers access to iPhone 6 with the industry’s lowest monthly fee of $20 with no out-of-pocket costs, and it guarantees a new device every two years.”

And so the time has come to add Non-Performing iPhone Loans, or NPiLs, to the financial lexicon.

Remember: it doesn’t matter if you actually have no money to buy your phone, as long as your phone tells the world that you have money.




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BofA Warns “Risk Of Selloff” After September’s FOMC

While BofAML's Michael Hanson expects Yellen’s overall tone to remain dovish, market perception will be key. The combination of changes to the forward guidance language, upward drift of the dots, and any comments seen as potentially hawkish, could lead to a selloff…

 

Via BofAML,

Risk of a hawkish read

The September FOMC meeting may be the most anticipated in nearly a year. We expect no fundamental changes in Fed policy, despite revising the statement to clarify policy data dependence and some upward drift in the dots. The FOMC should taper by another $10bn as well. Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s press conference will set the tone for the market reaction. While we anticipate she will continue to support a patient and gradual normalization process, the risk is that markets may sell off on the perception of a less dovish Fed.

Textual analysis

The FOMC statement has been the focus of much market speculation recently. The “significant underutilization of labor resources” phrase should be retained, in our view, given the soft August jobs report and only slight improvement on net since the July meeting. Conversely the “considerable time” language is likely to revised, in our view, as several Fed officials worry it sounds too much like calendar guidance. To reinforce the data dependent nature of policy, the FOMC could suggest that they will maintain the current 0 to ¼ percent funds rate target range until there has been “considerable progress toward the dual mandate objectives.” We also expect the statement to note that these changes do not reflect a shift in policy preferences, and for Yellen to reiterate that point at the press conference. Still, the risk is that markets see these revisions as a hawkish move in the timing of liftoff.

Drifting dots

The Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) should reveal a slight revision lower for the unemployment rate forecasts for this year and next. We expect a modest upward drift to the 2015 and 2016 dots as well, as some centrist Fed officials have recently shifted to “midyear” from “second half” for their expected start to the tightening cycle. (We just updated our own forecast for the Fed’s first rate hike to June 2015 from September.) The 2017 forecasts will be included for the first time; we look for the median dot to be between 3.25 and 3.50%, with the median ex-hawks at that lower bound. The median longer-run policy rate projection should remain at 3.75%.

Recall that Governor Lael Brainard participates in the SEP for the first time at this meeting.

Market risk also drifts up

Markets are priced well below just about any reasonable variation on the median dot, and a recent San Francisco Fed paper noted that the market seems both too dovish and too certain about Fed policy as well.

 

Drifting dots thus represent a significant risk for a selloff in the markets. While we expect Yellen to de-emphasize the dots at the press conference  – they are not a consensus policy tool, after all – markets may have difficulty looking past them this time.

*  *  *

Meet the press

Finally, Chair Yellen will likely continue her more balanced discussion of the labor market outlook, yet still emphasize a patient approach to policy normalization. She also may update the discussion around the revised Exit Strategy Principles, but a formal restatement may not appear until later this year. While we expect Yellen’s overall tone to remain dovish, market perception will be key. The combination of changes to the forward guidance language, upward drift of the dots, and any comments seen as potentially hawkish, could lead to a selloff, particularly at the short end of the yield curve.




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US Unveils Latest Russian Sanctions, Putin Immediately Responds That Russia Drafting Retaliation

Moments ago, as was widely preannounced, the US Treasury unveiled its latest round of Russian sanctions. While the bigger picture was well-known, here are some of the highlights:

  • U.S. SANCTIONS FOCUS ON FINANCIAL, ENERGY, DEFENSE SECTORS
  • U.S. TREASURY ADDS SBERBANK TO SANCTIONS LIST,
  • U.S. TREASURY SANCTIONS AFFECTS GAZPROM, GAZPROM NEFT, LUKOIL, ROSNEFT, AND SURGUTNEFTGAZ
  • U.S. TIGHTENS DEBT FINANCING RESTRICTIONS TO 30 DAYS

As Bloomberg reports, action deepens existing sanctions on Russian financial institutions, expands sanctions on Russia’s energy sector, targets additional energy- and defense-related firms, U.S. Treasury says in statement. “Today’s actions demonstrate our determination to increase the costs on Russia as long as it continues to violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty,” Under  Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David S. Cohen says in statement

Treasury Dept says it “maintains significant scope to expand these sanctions.”

Sberbank added to sanctions list; Treasury also tightens “debt financing restrictions by reducing from 90 days to 30 days the maturity period” for sanctioned banks

Also imposes sanctions that “prohibit the exportation of goods, services (not including financial services), or technology in support of exploration or production for Russian deepwater, Arctic offshore, or shale projects that have the potential to produce oil”

Step affects 5 cos.: Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, and Rosneft, Treasury says

And instantly: PUTIN: GOVT DRAFTING PROPOSALS TO RETALIATE AGAINST SANCTIONS

  • PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA TO RETALIATE ONLY IF IT SERVES ITS INTERESTS
  • PUTIN SEES MORE POSITIVES THAN NEGATIVES IN LATEST SANCTIONS
  • PUTIN SAYS UKRAINE `HELD HOSTAGE’ BY OUTSIDE INTERESTS
  • PUTIN SAYS RUSSIA WON’T IMPOSE TRAVEL BANS IN RETALIATION

So back to square one, as Russia and China get progressively closer.

* * *

Full statement from the US Treasury:

*WASHINGTON – *Due to continued Russian efforts to destabilize eastern Ukraine, Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew today determined that persons operating within Russia’s defense and related materiel sector may now be subject to targeted sanctions under Executive Order 13662.  In addition, the U.S. Department of the Treasury today extended targeted financial sanctions to Russia’s largest bank, deepened existing sanctions on Russian financial institutions, expanded sanctions in Russia’s energy sector, and increased the number of sanctioned Russian entities in the energy and defense sectors.    

Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew has made a determination that persons operating within Russia’s defense and related materiel sector may now be subject to targeted sanctions under Executive Order 13662.  Following Secretary Lew’s determination, Treasury has imposed sanctions that prohibit transactions by U.S. persons or within the United States involving new debt of greater than 30 days maturity issued by Rostec, a major Russian conglomerate that operates in the defense and related materiel sector. 

Treasury has added Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank of Russia, to the  existing prohibitions on U.S. persons providing equity or certain long-term debt financing.  In addition, we have tightened the debt financing restrictions  by reducing from 90 days to 30 days the maturity period for new debt issued by the six Russian banks subject to this restriction.  These banks are Bank of Moscow, Gazprombank OAO, Russian Agricultural Bank, Sberbank, VEB, and VTB Bank.

Treasury has designated and blocked the assets of five Russian state-owned defense technology firms – OAO ‘Dolgoprudny Research Production Enterprise,’ Mytishchinski Mashinostroitelny Zavod OAO, Kalinin Machine Plant JSC, Almaz-Antey GSKB, and JSC NIIP – for operating in the arms or related materiel sector in Russia. 

Treasury has also imposed sanctions that prohibit the exportation of goods, services (not including financial services), or technology in support of exploration or production for Russian deepwater, Arctic offshore, or shale projects that have the potential to produce oil, to five Russian energy companies – Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, and Rosneft – involved in these types of projects.  This measure complements restrictions administered by the Commerce Department and is similar to new EU measures published today.  U.S. persons have until September 26, 2014 to wind down applicable transactions with these entities pursuant to a general license that Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control issued today. 

Treasury has also imposed sanctions that prohibit transactions in, provision of financing for, or other dealings in new debt of greater than 90 days maturity issued by two additional Russian energy companies – Gazprom Neft and Transneft. 

“Today’s actions demonstrate our determination to increase the costs on Russia as long as it continues to violate Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty,” said Under Secretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence David S. Cohen.  “The United States, in close cooperation with the European Union, will impose ever-increasing sanctions that further Russia’s isolation from the global financial system unless Russia abandons its current path and genuinely works toward a negotiated diplomatic resolution to the crisis.”

Despite the severity of these actions, Treasury maintains significant scope to expand these sanctions, and impose additional sanctions, against individuals and entities under the authorities of Executive Orders (E.O.) 13660, 13661 and 13662 should the Russian Government not take steps to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine.

* *

“Imposition of Sanctions on Several Russian State-Owned Firms Pursuant to E.O. 13661 and E.O. 13662 for Operation in the Defense or Related Materiel Sector in
Russia”

Treasury today has also imposed new sanctions and strengthened existing sanctions targeting firms operating in Russia’s defense sector.””

* *

*Determination about Russia’s Defense and Related Material Sector and Imposition of Sanctions against Rostec. 

*Treasury Secretary Jacob J. Lew today made a determination under E.O. 13662 that persons operating within Russia’s defense and related materiel sector may now be subject to targeted sanctions.  Following Secretary Lew’s determination, Treasury issued a new directive that imposes sanctions on Rostec, a major Russian conglomerate that operates in the defense and related materiel sector.  Directive 3 pursuant to E.O. 13662 prohibits transactions in, provision of financing for, and other dealings in new debt of greater than 30 days maturity issued by Rostec, and its 50 percent or more owned subsidiaries, effectively cutting it off from U.S. debt financing. 
 

*Rostec* is a Russia-based state-owned holding company for Russia’s defense industry.  Rostec produces, develops, manufactures, and exports civil, military, and dual-purpose high-technology goods, and is involved in the manufacturing of weapons and military equipment.  Rostec-held subsidiaries manufacture and export military products valued in the billions.  Treasury designated Rostec’s Director General, Sergei Viktorovich Chemezov, on April 28, 2014, pursuant to E.O. 13661.

*Designation of Additional Defense Technology Companies under E.O. 13661. 

*Treasury has also designated and blocked the assets of five Russian defense firms under E.O. 13661 for operating in the arms and related materiel sector in the Russian Federation.  The firms designated today under E.O. 13661 include OAO ‘Dolgoprudny Research Production Enterprise,’ Mytishchinski Mashinostroitelny Zavod OAO, Kalinin Machine Plant JSC, Almaz-Antey GSKB, and JSC NIIP.  The designated firms are responsible for the production of a range of materiel, from small arms to mortar shells to tanks.  As a result of today’s actions under E.O. 13661, any assets of these entities that are within U.S. jurisdiction must be frozen.  Additionally, transactions by U.S. persons or within the United States involving these entities are generally prohibited. “”

*OAO ‘Dolgoprudny Research Production Enterprise’* is a Russia-based company, which is primarily engaged in the production of weapons and ammunition, including the Buk missile system, known in the West as “Gadfly” or SA-11 or SA-17.

*Mytishchinski Mashinostroitelny Zavod, OAO* is a Moscow-based company that has produced weaponry and equipment focusing primarily on anti-aircraft missile systems and chassis for tracked military vehicles. 

*Kalinin Machine Plant JSC* is a Russia-based, state-run company involved in the production of special purpose products such as weapons, ammunition, and combat anti-air missile system facilities for the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.  Kalinin Machine Plant JSC produces artillery guns for infantry and anti-air defense and specializes in the production of launchers and anti-air missiles.

*Almaz-Antey GSKB* is a Moscow-based subsidiary of the Almaz-Antey Concern, which was designated under E.O. 13661 on July 16, 2014.  Almaz-Antey GSKB designs and manufactures air defense systems for the Russian Ministry of Defense.

*JSC NIIP* is a Zhukovski-based Russian defense industrial firm owned by the Almaz-Antey Concern.  JSC NIIP develops anti-aircraft defense systems, including on-board radar systems for MiG and Sukhoi fighters, and anti-aircraft missile systems for land forces, including the KUB and BUK systems. 

“Expansion of Prohibition of Certain Types of Activities with Several Russian State-Owned Financial Institutions Pursuant to E.O. 13662”

Treasury today has imposed new sanctions and strengthened existing sanctions in Russia’s financial sector.

*Imposition of Sanctions against Sberbank of Russia and Lowering of Allowable  Maturity for New Debt Issuance for Sanctioned Financial Institutions. 

*Treasury has also modified Directive 1 pursuant to E.O. 13662 to lower the  allowable maturity for new debt from 90 to 30 days, and has added Sberbank to the list of entities subject to the restrictions in Directive 1.  Directive 1 pursuant to E.O. 13662 now prohibits transactions in, provision of financing for, or other dealings in new debt of greater than 30 days maturity and new equity of the banks listed under this Directive, by U.S. persons or within the United States.  As a practical matter, this step will further remove access to U.S. dollar financing for these financial institutions, and impose additional significant costs on the Russian Government for its continued provocations.

*Sberbank of Russia *is Russia’s largest financial institution.  Sberbank accounts for approximately one-quarter of Russian banking assets and one-third of its banking capital. 

” “

“Prohibition of Certain Types of Activities with Several Russian State-Owned  Energy Companies Pursuant to E.O. 13662”

Treasury today has imposed new sanctions and strengthened existing sanctions  targeting firms operating in Russia’s energy sector. 

” “

*Prohibition on Goods, Services, and Technology for Certain Energy Sector Activities.  *New Directive 4 issued pursuant to E.O. 13662 prohibits the provision, exportation, or reexportation of goods, services (except for financial services), or technology by U.S. persons or from the United States in support of exploration or production for deepwater, Arctic offshore, or shale projects that have the potential to produce oil in the Russian Federation, or in maritime area claimed by the Russian Federation and extending from its territory, and that involve five listed Russian energy companies: Gazprom, Gazprom Neft, Lukoil, Surgutneftegas, and Rosneft.  Treasury initially imposed sanctions against Rosneft, Russia’s largest petroleum company and third-largest gas producer, pursuant to E.O. 13662 on July 17, 2014.  Today’s step, which complements Commerce Department restrictions and is similar to new EU measures published today, will impede Russia’s ability to develop so-called frontier or unconventional oil resources, areas in which Russian firms are heavily dependent on U.S. and western technology.  While these sanctions do not target
or interfere with the current supply of energy from Russia or prevent Russian companies from selling oil and gas to any country, they make it difficult for Russia to develop long-term, technically challenging future projects.

*OAO Gazprom* is a Russia-based, government-owned global energy company engaged in gas exploration, production, transportation, storage, processing, and sales.  It is one of the largest joint stock companies in Russia.

*Gazprom Neft *is an integrated Russian oil company engaged in the exploration, development, production, transportation, and sale of crude oil and gas, and is also involved in oil refining, marketing of petroleum products, oil field services, and construction and development of exploration wells.  Gazprom Neft is majority owned by Gazprom.

*Lukoil OAO* is a Russia-based integrated oil and gas company.  Lukoil is engaged in the business of oil exploration, production, refining, marketing, and distribution.  The company is an owner of refineries, gas processing, petrochemical plants, and gas station networks located in Russia and abroad.

*Surgutneftegas *is a Russian oil company involved in oil and gas production and exploration, gas processing, power generation, output and marketing of petroleum products, petrochemicals and gas products. 

* *

*Imposition of Sanctions against Gazprom Neft and Transneft.  *Treasury has added two Russian energy companies, Gazprom Neft and Transneft, to the prohibitions under Directive 2 pursuant to E.O. 13662.  Transactions in, provision of financing for, and other dealings in new debt of greater than 90 days maturity for these two companies, and their 50 percent or more owned subsidiaries, by U.S. persons or within the United States are prohibited.  This sanction will impair their ability to raise financing in U.S. dollars, which is critical for their exploration and development of new oil fields. 

*AK Transneft OAO* is Russia’s government-owned pipeline company.  The company provides services for oil and oil products transportation via trunk pipelines systems within the Russian Federation and abroad.

* * *

And the FAQ for today’s sanctions as released by the Treasury:

407. May a U.S. person consent to a replacement of its participation by a non-U.S. person in a long-term loan facility that was extended to a person subject to Directives 1, 2, or 3 prior to the sanctions effective date?

A U.S. person is not prohibited by Directives 1, 2, or 3 from engaging in transactions necessary to exit or replace its participation in a long-term loan facility that was extended to an SSI entity prior to the sanctions effective date.   This would not constitute dealing in new debt. U.S. persons involved in such facilities should ensure that all newly negotiated drawdowns or disbursements from the facility utilize repayment terms that are not prohibited by the applicable sanctions effective date. See FAQ 394? for additional information on what constitutes a permitted drawdown or disbursement from an existing long-term loan obligation. [9-12-2014]

408. Is a U.S. person permitted under Directives 1, 2, or 3 to extend credit for greater than 30 days (for persons subject to Directives 1 or 3) or 90 days (for persons subject to Directive 2) to a non-sanctioned party for the purpose of purchasing goods or services from a person subject to Directives 1, 2, or 3?

Directives 1, 2, and 3 do not prohibit U.S. persons from extending credit for longer than 30 days (for persons subject to Directives 1 or 3) or 90 days (for persons subject to Directive 2) to non-sanctioned parties for the purpose of purchasing goods or services from an SSI entity, so long as the SSI entity is not the indirect borrower. [9-12-2014]

409. If a person determined to be subject to Directives 1, 2, or 3 makes successive draws under a short-term facility created after the sanctions effective date (e.g., it borrows $100 million with a 15-day maturity, then at the end of the 15 days, the debt “rolls over”), does the facility become prohibited if the SSI borrower makes successive short-term borrowings that cumulatively add up to more than 30 days (for persons subject to Directives 1 or 3) or 90 days (for persons subject to Directive 2)?

Two conditions must be met for short-term facilities created after the sanctions effective date to be permissible. As long as (1) each individual disbursement has a maturity of 30 or 90 days or less (depending on the applicable Directive) and the disbursement is paid back in full before the next disbursement and (2) the lender is not contractually required to roll over the balance for a cumulative period of longer than 30 or 90 days (depending on the applicable Directive) at the borrower’s request (i.e., it has the option to refuse the request for a new short-term loan and terminate the facility), the loan is not prohibited, even though the same borrower may obtain a series of short-term loans from the same lender over a cumulative period exceeding 30 or 90 days (depending on the applicable Directive). U.S. persons may not deal in a drawdown or disbursement initiated after the sanctions effective date with a repayment term of longer than the applicable authorized tenor if the terms of the drawdown or disbursement are negotiated or re-negotiated on or after the sanctions effective date. Such a newly negotiated drawdown or disbursement would constitute a prohibited extension of credit. [9-12-2014]

410. Are U.S. persons prohibited from entering into new contracts after the sanctions effective date with persons subject to Directives 1, 2, or 3 that provide payment terms to the SSI entities of greater than 30 days (for persons subject to Directives 1 or 3) or 90 days (for persons subject to Directive 2)? For instance, if a U.S. person agrees to sell shares or assets to an SSI entity in a corporate transaction that becomes effective on or after the sanctions effective date, is the U.S. person prohibited from agreeing to deferred purchase payments, even if no interest is involved, that may be paid more than the permissible number of days later  by the SSI entity?

Directives 1 and 3 prohibit new extensions of credit to SSI entities of greater than 30 days maturity and Directive 2 prohibits new extensions of credit to SSI entities of greater than 90 days maturity, and these prohibitions include deferred purchase agreements extending payment terms of longer than 30 days or 90 days (depending on the applicable Directive) to an SSI entity. Such agreements would constitute a prohibited extension of credit to an SSI entity if the terms were longer than the permissible number of days and the agreement was entered into on or after the sanctions effective date. OFAC does not consider the inclusion of an interest rate to be a necessary condition for establishing whether a transaction represents new debt. [9-12-2014]

411.  What does the prohibition contained in Directive 3 under Executive Order 13662 mean?  What is the scope of prohibited services?

OFAC issued Directive 3, introducing new prohibitions on all transactions in, provision of financing for, and other dealings in new debt of longer than 30 days maturity of persons determined to be subject to the Directive, their property, or their interests in property.  Transactions by U.S. persons or within the United States involving derivative products whose value is linked to an underlying asset that constitutes new debt with maturity of longer than 30 days issued by a person subject to Directive 3 are authorized by General License 1A pursuant to Executive Order 13662.

412.  What does the prohibition contained in Directive 4 mean?  What is the scope of prohibited services?

OFAC issued Directive 4, introducing new prohibitions on the provision of goods, services (except for financial services), and technology for certain activities involving certain persons operating in the energy sector of the Russian Federation.  Directive 4 prohibits the direct or indirect provision, exportation, or reexportation of goods, services (except for financial services), or technology in support of exploration or production for deepwater, Arctic offshore, or shale projects that have the potential to produce oil in the Russian Federation, or in maritime area claimed by the Russian Federation and extending from its territory, and involve any person determined to be subject to Directive 4 or that person’s property or interests in property.  The prohibition on the exportation of services includes, for example, drilling services, geophysical services, geological services, logistical services, management services, modeling capabilities, and mapping technologies.  The prohibition does not apply to the provision of financial services, e.g., clearing transactions or providing insurance related to such activities.

On September 12, 2014, OFAC issued General License 2, authorizing for 14 days all services and activities prohibited by Directive 4 that are ordinarily incident and necessary to the wind down of operations, contracts, or other agreements involving persons determined to be subject to Directive 4.  In order to qualify under this General License, a transaction must (1) occur prior to 12:01 am E.D.T. September 26, 2014, and (2) relate to operations, contracts, or agreements that were in effect prior to September 12, 2014.  General License 2 does not authorize any new provision, exportation, or re-exportation of goods, services, or technology except as needed to cease operations, contracts, or other agreements involving affected projects.

Please see this page for the Department of Commerce’s related license requirement on exports of certain goods for deepwater, Arctic offshore, or shale projects that have the potential to produce oil or gas.

413.  For the purposes of Directive 4, how does OFAC define “deepwater” projects that have the potential to produce oil?

A project is considered to be a deepwater project if the project involves underwater activities at depths of more than 500 feet.

414.  Does Directive 4 apply to projects that have the potential to produce gas?

If a deepwater, Arctic offshore, or shale project in the Russian Federation, or in maritime area claimed by the Russian Federation and extending from its territory, and involving a person named under Directive 4 has the potential to produce oil, then the prohibition applies, irrespective of whether the project also has the potential to produce gas.  If the project has the potential to produce gas only, then the prohibition does not apply.

415.  For persons determined to be subject to multiple Directives, how do the prohibitions and exemptions listed under one Directive affect prohibitions and exemptions under the other Directives?

Each Directive operates independently of the others.  If a transaction involves a person subject to two Directives, for example, a U.S. person engaging in that transaction must comply with the requirements of both Directives.  Exemptions in one Directive apply only to the prohibitions contained in that Directive and do not carry over to another Directive.  For example, if a person is subject to both Directive 2 and Directive 4, the exemption for the provision of financial services by U.S. persons or in the United States under Directive 4 does not supersede the prohibition in Directive 2 on dealing in debt of longer than 90 days maturity of such a person.  For these reasons, when OFAC references a prohibition involving an “SSI entity” in these FAQs or in other guidance, it is referring to an entity subject to the Directive(s) at issue in a particular FAQ or piece of guidance.

416.  What does the “sanctions effective date” mean in the context of sectoral sanctions pursuant to E.O. 13662?

For purposes of the sectoral sanctions, “sanctions effective date” means the date a person is determined to be subject to the prohibition(s) of the relevant Directive.  When a person has been previously determined to be subject to a Directive and the prohibition in the Directive is subsequently amended, (1) the sanctions effective date for the prohibitions of the original Directive remains the date on which the person was identified as subject to the prohibitions of that Directive, and (2) the sanctions effective date for the amended Directive is the date of the amendment (or other date specified in the amended Directive).




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Schrodinger’s Confidence: US Consumers Both More And Less Confident At The Same Time

Despite Gallup’s poll showing consumer confidence going nowhere this year, and Bloomberg’s consumer comfort level for high-income earners collapsing, the government’s UMich Consumer Sentiment measure has soared to its highest since last July’s exuberance (at 84.6). Take your pick which data you trust…

UMich beats and surges to 15-month highs…

 

totally ignoring other data…

 

Charts: Bloomberg




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