How Cops Got a License to Steal Your Money

This week a

series of stories
in The Washington
Post
 described the threat that civil forfeiture and the
war on drugs pose to innocent drivers carrying large amounts of
cash. In my latest Forbes column, I highlight three
features of forfeiture law and five Supreme Court decisions that
have made it easy for cops to take money from motorists. Here is
how the piece starts:

One afternoon in August 2012, Mandrel Stuart was driving with
his girlfriend into Washington, D.C., when a Fairfax County cop
pulled him over on Interstate 66, ostensibly because the windows of
his SUV were too dark. Lacking the device necessary to check
whether the tinting of the windows exceeded the legal limit,
Officer Kevin Palizzi instead cited Stuart for having a video
running within his line of sight. While Palizzi was filling out the
summons, another officer arrived with a drug-detecting dog.
Claiming the dog alerted to the left front bumper and wheel of
Stuart’s GMC Yukon, the cops searched the car and found $17,550 in
cash, which they kept, assuming that it must be related to the
illegal drug trade.

Stuart, who had planned to use that money to buy equipment and
supplies for his barbecue restaurant in Staunton, Virginia, was
astonished that a routine traffic stop could so easily turn into
grand theft. But as Washington Post reporters
Michael Sallah, Robert O’Harrow Jr., and Steven Rich
explain in a revealing and troubling series of
stories that ran this week, taking Stuart’s hard-earned money
was perfectly legal, thanks to civil forfeiture laws that turn cops
into highway robbers.


Read the whole thing
.

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Reality Show Traps Two Senators on a Desert Island. Why Stop There?

Appropriations Subcommittee meeting in session.Republican Arizona Sen. Jeff
Flake simply
cannot get enough of desert islands
. He keeps popping off to
them to get away from it all and work on his survival skills. You
never know when the ability to start a fire might be useful to end
a boring subcommittee hearing.

But his latest stunt is dragging a senator from across the aisle
with him and filming what happens for reality television. A new
show for the Discovery Channel, called Rival Survival, is
sending Flake and Democratic New Mexico Sen. Martin Heinrich to a
remote location in the Marshall Islands. The Hollywood
Reporter

notes
:

The duo will be given a modest choice of items from which they
can select only three. They’re forced to use the limited resources
and work together as they attempt to spear fish, build shelter and
find enough water to survive for a week on Eru in the Marshall
Islands, where the reefs alone are littered with venomous
stonefish, lionfish and scorpion fish.

Flake is a conservative republican who served in the U.S. House
of Representatives for six consecutive terms, from 2001-13, before
he was elected to the U.S. Senate. He’s a reformer who has backed
immigration reform. Heinrich, meanwhile, is a conservationist and
strong progressive and a member of the Senate’s Energy and Natural
Resources Committee who backs education, health care and Social
Security. The duo is described as being polar opposites and were
often at odds in the Senate.

Eru, meanwhile, is home to the wreckage of downed WWII aircraft
and the largest shark sanctuary in the world with more than 2
million square miles of protected waters.

So far they only appear to have done this one episode (which
will air Oct. 29), but they’re hoping for a series. Sadly, the way
the Reporter describes it, they won’t continue on sending
legislators off into the wilderness and out of our hair. They’ll be
looking for other volunteers and they aren’t even all that
committed to the concept of sticking only to “rivals.”

Back in 2012, we classified Flake as one of the more libertarian-leaning
candidates
for office, and ReasonTV interviewed him in 2011.
Watch below:

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ISIS and Liberalism’s Existential Crisis

One of the things that has contributed to the freak out against
ISIS is that it is attracting recruits from the WestISISKittens. Many
commentators worry that these Westerners are a product of
liberalism’s spiritual weakness – its inability to provide a
“transcendental” purpose, a cause to die for. And if ISIS is not
defeated decisively, they fear, liberalism will only look weaker,
producing a loss of confidence and an existential crisis in the
liberal West.

ISIS does indeed deserve to die. But I note in my column at
The Week, if anything bespeaks a loss of confidence, it is
what counts as an “existential crisis” now.

There is nothing new about a small number of Americans bolting
to join foreign armies fighting for anti-liberal causes. Over
2,800
Americans
enlisted on the communist side in the Spanish Civil
War, despite America’s official policy of neutrality (because, as
in many current conflicts, there were no clear good guys). What’s
more, in the first eight months of 1931, when Stalin’s atrocities
were approaching their zenith, more than
100,000 Americans
applied to emigrate to the Soviet Union,
several thousand of them successfully.

Go
here
to read the whole thing.

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Damon Root: What Ken Burns’ New Film Gets Right—and Wrong—About the Roosevelts

In
his new film, which premiers this Sunday night on PBS,
documentarian Ken Burns examines the tangled lives of Theodore,
Franklin, and Eleanor Roosevelt. “It was not our intention to make
a puff piece,” Ken Burns told Senior Editor Damon Root in an
interview this week, “but a complicated, intertwined, integrated
narrative about one hell of an American family.” Root reports that
Burns was just partially successful. At its best, Root writes,
The Roosevelts: An Intimate History offers a warts and all
portrait of the family. But at its worst, the film ignores
historical details and underplays the family’s abuse of political
power.

View this article.

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Stocks Slump As Hawkish Fed Fears Send 10Y Yields Back Over 2.60%

It appears the upwards revisions for retail sales and not missing expectations for the headline data is the good news that is bad news for markets. With just a few days until the FOMC, it seems market perceptions of potential fed hawkishness (no good excuses recently not to be) is weighing on bonds and stocks. Treasury yields are accelerating higher (10Y above 2.60% for first time since July) tracking oddly perfectly with USDJPY and stocks, having entirely decoupled from JPY, are tanking on the rising rates/Fed hawkishness concerns. Of course, it’s Friday so anything goes before we close.

 

 

Quite a week for bonds…

 

And stocks are giving it back quickly… (except Trannies)

 

As credit has been warning all week…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

*  *  *

Was retail sales the last best hope for bad news?




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China Daily: “Western Sanctions Will Make Moscow Back The Chinese Yuan Against The Dollar”

Op-Ed posted in China Daily

West’s Antics Pushing Russia closer to China

The recent NATO summit in Wales, held against the background of the armed conflict in Ukraine, has brought back the Cold War atmosphere to Europe. NATO’s partnership with Russia remains formally suspended. In fact, NATO is treating Russia more as an adversary than a partner.

The alliance is setting up a “Rapid Reaction Force” to deal with emergencies on Europe’s eastern flank. The alliance’s military infrastructure is moving toward that exposed flank, and closer to Russia’s borders. NATO forces will now spend more time exercising in the east, and their presence there will visibly grow. NATO-leaning Ukraine, which the alliance alleges is an object of “Russian aggression”, has been promised financial and military support.

The Ukraine crisis is not just about Eastern Europe, it is also about the world order. The Kremlin is seeking Washington’s recognition of what it regards as its core national security interest: keeping Ukraine as a buffer zone between Russia and the West, particularly NATO. Washington, on principle, denies Moscow this “imperial privilege”, and insists on the freedom of all countries, including Ukraine, to choose alliances and affiliations.

The stakes are high. Should Russia be rolled back in Ukraine, not only will its international position materially suffer, but also the power of the Kremlin inside the country might be dangerously undermined. On the other hand, if the US were to eventually accept Russia’s demand for a “zone of comfort” along its borders, Washington’s credibility as the global dominant power, the norm-setter and arbiter will suffer.

The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, of course, is no military alliance, and even less a rival of NATO. Its member states, however, are closely watching the US-Russian match being played out at the western end on the great Eurasian continent. Some, like the Central Asian states, are essentially ducking, hedging, or running for cover. China, which seeks to defend its own core interests in East Asia and the Western Pacific, looks at the current Russian-American competition through the prism of its own relations with Washington and Moscow.

China has a very important relationship to keep with the US. Playing a long game, Beijing usually avoids direct collisions with Washington, and means to profit from the US-initiated globalization to the fullest extent possible. Like Russia, however, China would also want to carve out a comfort zone for itself along its eastern borders and shores, and, like Russia again, it faces the reality of the US’ physical presence and US-led alliances there. What Washington is now doing in an effort to contain Moscow in Eastern Europe provides important information to Beijing in East Asia.

There is more to Beijing’s reaction than just watching and drawing conclusions. The apparently long-term rupture of Russia’s relations with the West offers an opportunity to the Chinese leadership to enhance its already close relationship with the Kremlin and thus turn the global geopolitical balance in its favor – not unlike former US president Richard Nixon and former secretary of state Henry Kissinger who reached out to Chairman Mao Zedong in 1972. The Russians, angry with Washington, are now more amenable to giving China wider access to their energy riches and their advanced military technology. The Western sanctions pushing Russia out of the international financial system are also making Moscow more ready and willing to back the Chinese yuan against the US dollar.

A Sino-Russian military alliance against the US is still a rather long shot. Yet the two countries’ political, economic and military alignment is getting thicker. An expellee from the G8, which is now back to G7, Russia is now eagerly embracing the non-West, particularly in Asia and Latin America. Within the non-West, China is unquestionably the premier power. Managing Russia will not be easy for anyone, but the country is a precious resource for China. So far, Beijing has displayed more tact in dealing with Moscow than any other major player in the world. Building on this success, it can now set its bar higher.

To a China which is rising and raising its global profile, BRICS is an asymmetrical equivalent of the G7, albeit in a very different shape and form. The SCO, to use a similar analogy, is an asymmetrical analogue to NATO, but as a political organization of continental Asia (including Russia), rather than a military bloc. The inclusion of India and Pakistan into the SCO is a logical next step. Iran, currently an observer, can follow later. Turkey, an SCO dialogue partner and a member of NATO, can become a useful link to the North Atlantic alliance.

Enhancing the SCO’s security credentials and extending its reach requires a major qualitative upgrade of China’s strategic thinking and diplomacy, and an even closer partnership with Russia. The SCO summit in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, will probably not see this yet, but it might become a point when the balance of Eurasia has decisively turned in China’s favor. Beijing would need to thank Washington for it.

* * *

Indeed, “thanks Obama” for firmly cementing the anti-western military, monetary and political alliance.




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Friday A/V Club: A Soviet Filmmaker Adapts a Post-Apocalyptic Ray Bradbury Story

Forget The Day After. The great nuclear-war movie of
the early ’80s is this 10-minute take on Ray Bradbury’s “There
Will Come Soft Rains
“:

The film was made by Nazim Tulyakhodzayev—a Soviet director—in
1984, giving the picture a foothold on both sides of the Cold
War.

Bonus link: That time the FBI
thought Bradbury might be a Communist
.

(For past editions of the Friday A/V Club, go here.)

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What If The Easy Money Is Now On The Bear Side?

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

Complacent melt-ups aren't just boring–they're not very profitable.

File this under Devil's Advocate: what if the easy money in the stock market is no longer the "guaranteed" Bull melt-up but the Bearish bet on a sudden air pocket? Just as a thought experiment, put yourself in the shoes of the money managers who have the leverage to move the markets.
 

You probably know the drill: program your trading bots to recognize every technical trading scheme's key support and resistance levels, and then unleash huge futures/options buys after hours or pre-open so the market jumps in the direction that makes you the most money.

Unleashing a tsunami of buy orders forces Bears to cover their bets on a decline (shorts), goosing the market higher. The melt-up depends not just on trading bots hammering the market in the desired direction with massive buy orders–it depends on a supply of nervous Bears to cover their shorts by buying stocks. This buying triggers others' trading bots to buy into the rally.
 
Short-covering is an essential source of the self-reinforcing buying that has kept the U.S. market melting up for years without any gyrations down of more than a few percentage points.
 
Buy the dips has entered the Pavlovian realm of automatic response because the managed tsunamis of futures/options force those betting on a decline to cover their shorts by buying, pumping the rally up with steroid-like buying.
 
The problem with this guaranteed melt-up is the unceasing advance and immediate buy the dip response has decimated the ranks of Bears willing to bet against the melt-up. This has removed one of the primary fuel sources of the melt-up.
 
In other words, the managers' great success with forcing Bears to seek cover has drained a key reservoir of buying power. Eradicating the Bears has all been jolly good sport, but it has also reduced the shorts who can be forced to cover, which means the market is left with only the managers' manipulations and the other institutional trading bots that follow trends.
 
Consider this chart of the Rydex ratio of Bear/Bull assets, from John Hampson:
 
If Market Bears were tallied, they'd be on the list of Endangered Species. There is some confusion about the true number of Bears left, as prudent money managers may buy puts (bets on a market decline) to hedge their portfolios. As a result, a mass of put buying may reflect hedging, not Bearish bets.
 
The net result of eradicating the Bears is the gains from the melt-up are now limited. If you're a serious manager of serious money, squeezing out a couple of points from the melt-up is not only boring–it's detrimental to your career, because you need to beat the index melt-up to keep your big-bucks job and skim your payoff.
 
Which leads to the notion that the really big money waiting to be skimmed from the unwary is not more melt-up but a sudden "unexpected" meltdown that catches everyone who isn't short off-guard. The most profitable trade would be to stealthily build a short position while telling everyone else how the melt-up was guaranteed essentially forever ("the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan have your back," etc.).
 
To make sure nobody strayed from the long side of the boat, you'd unleash the usual frenzy of buy orders at every dip, because the last thing you'd want is to give anyone else an easy entry to the Bearish short side.
 
The ideal situation is a boat heavily tilted to one side with complacent Bulls confident in the continuation of the never-ending melt-up, and only yourself and a few insider cronies on the short side.
 
Then, when all the Bulls are happily swapping stories about how the yen carry trade guarantees capital flows into U.S. equities and other Bull stories–
 
BANG! You unleash a tsunami of sell orders that triggers all the trend-following trading bots to sell. When the buy the dip crowd confidently enters their buy orders, you crush them with a load of futures and options orders that reverse the uptick. This triggers another wave of bot selling.
 
Since there are no Bears left except you and your cronies, the buy the dip retraces have no legs: they quickly peter out because no Bears are left to spark short-covering buying.
 
Since there are no Bears left, there's only the trading bots programmed to follow trends: and with your leverage and bag of tricks, that trend can go down faster than complacent Bulls thought possible.
 
Then, when the Bulls are stampeding in panic selling, you cover your Bear bets and start buying from the panic-stricken Bulls. The Hobby Bears who went short near the bottom are forced to cover as your buying turns the tide, and the market is soon in full recovery mode.
 

This is such an obvious (and immensely profitable) play, I'm surprised we haven't seen it more often. Complacent melt-ups aren't just boring – they're not very profitable.




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Cruz Booed, Palin Brawls, Cat Enthusiast Seeks Greatest Yearbook Picture Ever: A.M. Links

  • Draven RodriguezRepublican Sen. Ted Cruz
    offended the crowd at an event he attended, “In Defense of
    Christans.” Cruz told attendees that persecuted Christians had no
    greater friend than Israel,
    which prompted boos
    .
  • Ohio authorities apprehended escaped
    convict
    T.J. Lane. Lane, 19, had been serving three life
    sentences for murdering three classmates at his high school. At his
    trial, he showed no remorse, taunted his victims’ families, and
    laughed when the verdict was read. He escaped with two other
    inmates but was caught early Friday morning.
  • Apparently the Palin family got into
    some sort of fight with the locals
    at an Alaskan snowmobile
    race. Someone told Bristol Palin that she couldn’t just do whatever
    she wanted because,”This isn’t some Hillbilly reality show.”
  • A sixth grade teacher in the Washington, D.C., area
    apologized for giving her students
    a homework assignment that
    required them to make a Venn diagram comparing President George W.
    Bush to Adolph Hitler.
  • New York public school student Draven Rodriguez has a dream: He
    wants a weird picture of hin and his cat to make it into the
    yearbook.
    Fight the good fight
    , kid. (The picture is the greatest thing
    ever.)

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Kurt Loder Reviews The Skeleton Twins and The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby (Them)

In The Skeleton
Twins
, Kristen Wiig and Bill Hader draw on their many years of
professional togetherness – seven seasons ofSaturday Night Live,
five previous films – to set up the familial rhythms of a pair of
troubled siblings. The movie isn’t a straight comedy – the title
characters are sunk in despair, and only steps away from suicide.
But Wiig and Hader use their comic timing to create an easy
intimacy, even in scenes in which nothing funny is going on. Kurt
Loder writes that it’s unusual to check in with actors we’ve
watched for so long and find them doing something fresh – in fact,
giving breakthrough performances. But that’s what’s happening
here.

View this article.

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