ISIS Fighter: U.S. Airstrikes in Syria Aren’t Stopping Us

Last week the U.S. began
conducting airstrikes in Syria as part of its war against the
Islamic State (a.k.a. ISIS or ISIL). The Obama administration is
deliberately hitting oil fields under ISIS control in order to hit
them in the moneymaker. American military leaders were quick to
say, “The
strikes were successful
.”

An ISIS fighter under the pseudonym Abu Talha
tells
CNN that’s a lot of hot air:

We’ve been ready for this for some time. … We know that our
bases are known because they’re tracking us with radars and
satellites, so we had backup locations. …

We have revenues other than oil. We have other avenues, and our
finances are not going to stop just because of oil losses. …

They thought they knew everything. But thank God, they don’t
know anything. And God willing, we will defeat the infidels.

They hit us in some areas, and we advance in other. … If we are
pushed back in Iraq, we advance in northern Syria. These strikes
cannot stop us, our support or our fighters

Can we take his word for it? If not, the former head of the
U.K.’s military
also says
that airstrikes aren’t going to work.

President Barack Obama acknowledged yesterday that his
administration has “underestimated
the Islamic State.

America’s bombing campaign could cost as much as
$10 billion a year
, according to Foreign Affairs.

Several foreign policy voices have
said
American airstrikes run the serious risk of
bringing together
ISIS with other anti-American jihadists while
angering moderate rebels that have previously been pro-U.S.

Reuters
reports
today that “U.S.-led air strikes hit grain silos and
other targets in Islamic State-controlled territory in northern and
eastern Syria overnight, killing civilians and wounding
militants.”

As Reason‘s Peter Suderman highlights, despite Obama’s
insistence that he won’t get America tangled up in a ground war,
the
vast majority
of Americans believe the fight against ISIS will
expand beyond airstrikes to include ground troops. 

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2014/09/29/isis-fighter-us-airstrikes-in-syria-aren
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Afghanistan to Agree to 10,000 U.S. Troops in Country Past 2014

Ashraf GhaniThe newly inaugurated president of Afghanistan,
Ashraf Ghani, is
expected
to sign a security deal tomorrow that will allow
10,000 U.S. troops to remain in Afghanistan after the international
operation officially finishes at the end of the year.

Nevertheless, Ghani is
also interested
in restarting negotiations with the Taliban,
which claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing near the Kabul
airport, and other militant groups in the country. “Fighting is not
the solution to the political differences,”the new president said
at his inauguration. “We proved that political differences can be
solved through political negotiations. Therefore I call upon the
opponents of the government – especially the Taliban and
Hezb-e-Islami to join political talks.”

Ghani’s electoral rival, Abdullhah Abdullah, who
also supported extending
the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, was
also sworn in as a “chief executive,” part of a power-sharing deal
after the disputed election.

Former President Hamid Karzai, who left office today, and

refused to sign
a security deal with the U.S. as a lame duck,

used his farewell speech
last week to lambast the U.S.,
claiming “America did not want peace for Afghanistan, because it
had its own agendas and goals here,” mainly the “personal interest
of the foreign policies of others.”

from Hit & Run http://reason.com/blog/2014/09/29/afghanistan-to-agree-to-10000-us-troops
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A. Barton Hinkle on Partisan Hackery and the Virginia Senate Race

Virginians who will vote in November’s Senate
race have a choice between two hopelessly partisan hacks, say the
candidates themselves. The Republican challenger, Ed Gillespie,
constantly accuses incumbent Democrat Mark R. Warner of marching in
lock step with President Barack Obama and Senate Majority Leader
Harry Reid. By way of rebuttal, Warner says things like this:
Gillespie “comes from a world where it’s all about partisanship,
one team versus another team. If there’s ever a time where you have
to check your Republican and Democrat hats and put our country
first, it’s now.” A. Barton Hinkle says it’s time to drop the
partisan hackery.

View this article.

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Brazil Crashes As Rousseff Regains Lead

Having rallied exuberantly on the back of hopes a reform-hungry hot-money-flow-encouraging Silva would take the Presidency in Brazil, a new poll this morning shows encumbent Rousseff back in the lead… and Brazilian markets are rapidly unwinding their exuberance. The Ibovespa is down 5% – its biggest drop in over 3 years. Brazil swap rates have spiked over 50bps and bonds bleeding as USDBRL jumps over 3 handles (to weakest since 2008). It appears just 48 hours after a strong rally on Friday, as markets ‘efficiently’ knew everything was great, Rousseff has realised a few well-placed, well-executed poll results and everything changes.

 

As Bloomberg reports,

Datafolha poll late Friday showing President Rousseff lead widening before Oct. 5 elections and amid broad USD strengthening.

 

Rousseff 4ppt ahead of Silva in runoff, up 2ppt vs previous poll; lead widens to 13ppt from 7ppt in 1st round: Datafolha

 

Record TV channel may release new Vox Populi poll, taken Sept. 27-28; last Vox poll showing Rousseff lead narrowing contrasts with Datafolha results

 

New polls from Datafolha and Ibope expected from tomorrow 

And this happens…

 

Individual stocks are getting crushed:

  • *PETROBRAS FALLS 9.2% IN SAO PAULO TRADING
  • *PETROBRAS EXTENDS DECLINE, FALLS MOST SINCE NOV. 2008
  • *BANCO DO BRASIL SHARES FALL 8.3% TO BRL27.35 IN SAO PAULO
  • *CYRELA FALLS 5.1% IN SAO PAULO TRADING




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1rxQtyN Tyler Durden

Stocks Tumble; High-Yield Credit Risk Spikes To 1-Year Highs

It appears the post-PIMCO-effect is not wearing off. Having had a weekend to soak up the reality of what outflows will mean for Gross’ old shop, credit markets are once again flashing bright red this morning as managers reach for protection ahead of expected redemptions which would force selling into an illiquid market. High-yield spreads are 25bps wider at their highest since early Oct 2013. Equity futures are legging lower with the weakness.

 

 

Which is dragging stocks lower…

 

Bigger picture, things have rolled over quickly..

 

and for those who defend the ongoing equity exuberance of the S&P by noting that their buyback-funding is investment grade backed and high-yield is in trouble due to liquidity and technicals… think again…. the entire corporate bond market is turmoiling…

 

Charts: Bloomberg




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China Finally Speaks On Hong Kong Protest: “Opposes Illegal, Destabilizing Activities”

With the biggest Hong Kong protest in recent history taking place over the weekend, and continuing indefinitely because one thing is certain: the local student demands for more democracy and the ouster of HK chief executive CY Leung will not be met, what everyone has focused on is what China’s response, call it crackdown, to the breakout of violence will be. After all, while algos and the Fed’s liquidity tsunami have priced in pretty much everything short of (or including, according to some) World War III, a repeat of Tiananmen square could well be large enough to where it registers as a slight downtick in the Fed’s balance sheet, pardon the S&P 500.

Hong Kong Chief Executive CY Leung

So for all those eager to track the progression of China’s responses to the protests, here is the first official statement via CRIEnglish:

China’s central government is describing the so-called Occupy Central movement in Hong Kong as an “illegal gathering.”

 

At the same time, mainland authorities say they’re confident authorities in Hong Kong are able to handle it.

 

The Occupy group in Hong Kong is opposed to the new plans for universal suffrage in the city.

 

Hong Kong Chief Executive CY Leung says the Hong Kong government considers the Occupy movement illegal.

 

At the same time, Leung says his government plans to continue moving forward with the consultation process.

 

“And in so far as consultations and the question of constitutional development is concerned, it is also important to bear in mind that we have to operate within the framework of the stipulations of the Basic Law and the National People’s Congress Standing Committee’s decisions because these are the legal and constitutional frameworks for Hong Kong’s constitutional developments to go forward in.”

 

Protests this weekend in Hong Kong turned ugly, with police being forced to use tear-gas to disperse demonstrators who were trying to push through police lines.

For now China is merely escalating the verbal rhetoric, and is hoping that the student will get bored and go home. Which they won’t. So what happens then? Well, the following post should provide some insight…




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1voQjLr Tyler Durden

China Finally Speaks On Hong Kong Protest: "Opposes Illegal, Destabilizing Activities"

With the biggest Hong Kong protest in recent history taking place over the weekend, and continuing indefinitely because one thing is certain: the local student demands for more democracy and the ouster of HK chief executive CY Leung will not be met, what everyone has focused on is what China’s response, call it crackdown, to the breakout of violence will be. After all, while algos and the Fed’s liquidity tsunami have priced in pretty much everything short of (or including, according to some) World War III, a repeat of Tiananmen square could well be large enough to where it registers as a slight downtick in the Fed’s balance sheet, pardon the S&P 500.

Hong Kong Chief Executive CY Leung

So for all those eager to track the progression of China’s responses to the protests, here is the first official statement via CRIEnglish:

China’s central government is describing the so-called Occupy Central movement in Hong Kong as an “illegal gathering.”

 

At the same time, mainland authorities say they’re confident authorities in Hong Kong are able to handle it.

 

The Occupy group in Hong Kong is opposed to the new plans for universal suffrage in the city.

 

Hong Kong Chief Executive CY Leung says the Hong Kong government considers the Occupy movement illegal.

 

At the same time, Leung says his government plans to continue moving forward with the consultation process.

 

“And in so far as consultations and the question of constitutional development is concerned, it is also important to bear in mind that we have to operate within the framework of the stipulations of the Basic Law and the National People’s Congress Standing Committee’s decisions because these are the legal and constitutional frameworks for Hong Kong’s constitutional developments to go forward in.”

 

Protests this weekend in Hong Kong turned ugly, with police being forced to use tear-gas to disperse demonstrators who were trying to push through police lines.

For now China is merely escalating the verbal rhetoric, and is hoping that the student will get bored and go home. Which they won’t. So what happens then? Well, the following post should provide some insight…




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1voQjLr Tyler Durden

Is This The Worst Argument Against Libertarianism Ever? No, But It is the Most Recent.

As one
of the folks (along with Matt Welch, natch), who started the whole
“Libertarian
Moment” meme way back in 2008,
 it’s been interesting to
see all the ways in which folks on the right and left get into such
a lather at the very notion of expanding freedom and choice in many
(though sadly not all) aspects of human activity.

Indeed, the brain freeze can get so intense that it turns
occasionally smart people into mental defectives.

To wit,
Damon Linker’s recent essay
in The Week (a great
magazine, by the way), which argues that the outcomes of U.S.
military intervention in Iraq and Libya disprove libertarianism, in
particular, the Hayekian principle of “spontaneous order.”

No shit. Linker is being super-cereal here, kids:

Now it just so happens that within the past decade or so the
United States has, in effect, run two experiments — one in Iraq,
the other in Libya — to test whether the theory of spontaneous
order works out as the libertarian tradition would predict.

In both cases, spontaneity brought the opposite of order. It
produced anarchy and civil war, mass death and human suffering.

You got that? An archetypal effort in what Hayek
would call “constructivism,” neocon hawks would call “nation
building,” and what virtually all libertarians (well, me anyways)
called a
“non sequitur”
in the war on terror that
was doomed to failure
from the moment of conception is proof
positive that libertarianism is, in Linker’s eyes, “a
particularly bad idea” whose “pernicious consequences” are plain to
see.

In the sort of junior-high-school rhetorical move to which
desperate debaters cling, Linker even plays a variation on the
reductio ad Hitlerum in building case:

Some bad ideas inspire world-historical acts of evil. “The Jews
are subhuman parasites that deserve to be exterminated” may be the
worst idea ever conceived. Compared with such a grotesquely awful
idea, other bad ideas may appear trivial. But that doesn’t mean we
should ignore them and their pernicious consequences.

Into this category I would place the extraordinarily influential
libertarian idea of “spontaneous order.”

What nuance: Exterminating Jews
may be the worst idea…! When a person travels down such
a rhetorical path, it’s best to back away quickly, with a wave of
the hand and best wishes for the rest of his journey. Who can
seriously engage somebody who starts a discussion by saying,
“You’re not as bad as the Nazis, I’ll grant you that”…? I’d love
to read his movie review of the recent Teenage Mutant
Ninjas
movie: “Not as bad as Triumph of the Will, but
still a bad movie…”

But in fact Linker attributes to Hayek and other libertarians a
definition of spontaneous order (sometimes called the “extended
order,” as in Hayek’s Fatal Conceit) that is made of the
finest straw. In Hayek’s writing—and that of most libertarians and
classical liberals who preceded them—the term is essentially a
modern vision of Adam Smith’s “invisible hand.”

That is, it helps to explain how goods and services and all
sorts of social organization form absent centralized planning (or
how alternatives crop up in the face of centralized planning).
Especially in the context of the 18th and even the 20th century,
the idea that markets and people could function autonomously from
rulers dictating virtually ever aspect of life wasn’t take for
granted. Explaining how complicated social and economic activity
could happen was one of the main projects of liberal
thought. 

Like Smith, Hayek was no anarchist, and spontaneous order
is precisely about how rules, customs, and traditions inherited
from the past inform current arrangements and how we evolve and add
to them, sometimes displacing them altogether. An obvious example
of spontaneous order from the contemporary moment isn’t Iraq or
Libya but something like the way Uber operates vis a vis
traditional taxi cartels. The system of taxis is heavily regulated
and all the participants are subject to varying levels of state
coercion. By contrast, Uber started as an experimental service that
built rules, customs, and norms that continue to be tweaked based
on feedback from everyone involved.

The central insight of Hayek—and most libertarian thinkers—is
simply this (I’m quoting from the very page Linker links
to in his Week piece
) is that things generally work better (not
perfectly, but better) when people are given more space to choose
among options or to create new options for themselves. That’s as
true in the social and cultural spheres as it is in the economic
sphere.

As Hayek wrote,

The recognition of the insuperable limits to his knowledge ought
indeed to teach the student of society a lesson in humility which
should guard him against becoming an accomplice in men’s fatal
striving to control society—a striving which makes him not only a
tyrant over his fellows, but which may well make him the destroyer
of a civilization which no brain has designed but which has grown
from the free efforts of millions of individuals. 

That’s from Hayek’s Nobel prize
lecture, which was titled “The Pretense of Knowledge.”
Though sometimes
terrible
 in his personal political commitments, Hayek’s
first instinct was always to combat constructivism, or the idea
that a few smart, violent, or powerful people have all the answers
and can direct the rest of us toward some form of human
perfection. 

Hayek’s emphasis on the limits of human knowledge helps explain
both the tyranny of people such as Qaddafi and Saddam Hussein in
Libya and Iraq, Islamists who want to control every aspect of human
life, and the Nazis whom Linker feels a need to insert into random
conversation about contemporary politics. They all sought to do the
impossible (control all aspects of human life) and the immoral (use
other people as means to their ends). It’s a shame that defenders
of the invasion of Iraq didn’t read more Hayek before settling on
their plan, and it seems as if the brilliant minds who bombed Libya
into chaos (and are doing so in Syria as we speak) skipped any and
all classes on the Austrian School of economics.

It takes real chutzpah to pretend that self-evidently stupid
foreign policy disasters based on
the worst sort of hubris
undermine a contemporary libertarian
agenda focused on reduced government spending on defense (among
other things), a general deregulation of economic activity (recall
the housing and fiscal crises, which were caused and intensified
not by lack of government involvement but a surfeit of it), and a
push for tolerance in the social sphere.

At
least Linker’s colleague at The Week, Matt Lewis (who also
blogs at The Daily Caller), is more forthright in his
response to creeping libertarianism. Rather than construct a bad
argument against libertarianism, Lewis simply points out that, to
quote his piece’s headline, it’s “bad for traditional
conservatives.” Indeed, Lewis can’t be bothered to generate new
arguments for his piece and instead cites
a 2011 column
he wrote quoting a Catholic thinker who says
“libertarianism is parasitic upon Christian civilization.” Which
would be news to
Roger Williams,
among other Christian thinkers who stress the
indivdual’s right of conscience as central to legitimate
government. It’s actually more accurate to say the classical
liberal project that started in 17th-century England is in many
ways based upon a Christian respect for the individual. In making
the first case in the English language for a fully secular temporal
government, Williams argued that forced prayer or worship “stinks
in God’s nostrils.”

Lewis’ anxiety clearly stems from the partisan political fallout
of the Libertarian Moment (which
of course is more a general direction than a brief moment in
time…
). If libertarians continue to grow in power and
influence, the contemporary Republican Party will have to change
from the policies that gave rise to the Bush years, a
spend-and-regulate debacle
that also saw the United States
enter two unwinnable wars. Social conservatives, along with crony
capitalists and those invested in the military-industrial complex
will all need to adjust.

Change is tough, Republicans, but sometimes it’s necessary.
Especially when it leads to not to chaos but to a freer, more
peaceful, and innovative society.

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Return of the Aqua Buddha! Rand Paul Survives Another Long Magazine Feature

Rand Paul at the Urban League. |||The New Yorker has published an 11,753-word
article
on Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), and his political
navigations on the way to a 2016 White House run. The tepid,
conclusion-averse nature of Ryan Lizza’s piece—as opposed to more
bold profiles in recent years in the
New York Times Magazine
and
The New Republic
—is encapsulated in the subhed: “The
Senator has fought to go mainstream with the ideology that he
shares with his father. How far can that strategy take him?”

While the article ends with some late-breaking pessimism on that
question, in the form of quotes from observers doubtful about the
salability of Paul’s positions on foreign policy, criminal justice,
and
abortion
, the piece begins by hailing the potential
breakthrough nature of his candidacy:

Like many Republicans speaking before a black audience, Paul
quoted Martin Luther King, Jr., but he also invoked Malcolm X. He
declared, “I support the Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights
Act.” If enacted, Paul’s agenda would arguably do more to address
issues that are important to the black community than anything that
other members of his party are currently proposing. […]

In some respects, Paul is to Republicans in 2014 what Barack
Obama was to Democrats in 2006: the Party’s most prized fund-raiser
and its most discussed senator, willing to express opinions
unpopular within his party, and capable of energizing younger
voters.

Much of the rest of the article is what you’ve read before about
Rand Paul, only with more detail. Aqua
Buddha
makes a comeback, only this time GQ’s unnamed
target of Paul’s collegiate pranking gets named, and quoted (saying
“I would not use that as a specific reason not to vote for him”).
Lizza also provides some important new anecdotal evidence that
Paul’s best college buddy was fond of doing nitrous hits
(whee!).

We hear more about Rand’s interest in campaigning for his
father, but we get some extra sauce about his talent for the job.
Paul’s history of making philosophically-based arguments against
the government prohibiting private-sector discrimination gets a few
more citations (sample bit of 1982 writing: While “eliminating
racial and sexual prejudice” had “noble aspiration,” such laws
“necessarily utilize the ignoble means of coercive force”). And
there is the requisite
people-in-his-world-have-played-the-race-card angle, complete with
references to
Ron Paul’s newsletters
,
Jack Hunter’s past
, and
Lysander Spooner
‘s fanclub. But as indicated by the article’s
lead anecdote of Paul speaking in front of the Urban League, Lizza
seems much less convinced by this critique than New York
Times
writers Sam Tanenhaus and Jim Rutenberg were in their

dot-connecting exercise
this January.

After the jump, some bits of particular interest to
Reason readers.

* Rand Paul does not enjoy paying taxes, or suffering through
regulations governing what he can’t do with his property. He also
was a Lysander Spooner fan in college.

|||* His views on criminal justice
have been heavily influenced by Michelle Alexander’s recent drug
war book,
The New Jim Crow
, and also by his ongoing engagement with
various African-American communities.

* Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) said (in August anyway), that he’d
back Paul if he won the 2016 GOP nomination. Quote: “I’ve seen him
grow and I’ve seen him mature and I’ve seen him become more
centrist. I know that if he were President or a nominee I could
influence him, particularly some of his views and positions on
national security. He trusts me particularly on the military side
of things, so I could easily work with him. It wouldn’t be a
problem.”

* Here’s a single, thin, pre-political-career anecdote about
maybe wanting to legalize drugs, which Paul will likely never
advocate in office:

In 2000, when a caller to “Kentucky Tonight” asked guests what
they thought of a plan to legalize all drugs, release all
nonviolent drug offenders, and use the savings to fix Social
Security, Paul responded, “I would agree.”

* OH MY GOD HE LIKES BARBARA KINGSOLVER:

As with so many aspects of his personal history, Paul approaches
the subject of his intellectual influences as though he were
defusing a bomb. In his book, he wrote about several libertarian
writers he had turned to since high school: Ayn Rand (“one of the
most influential critics of government intervention and champions
of individual free will”), Hayek (” ‘The Road to Serfdom’ is a
must-read for any serious conservative”), and the Mises disciple
Murray Rothbard (“a great influence on my thinking”). In my
conversation with him, he shrugged them off.

Ayn Rand was just “one of many authors I like,” he said. “And
it’s, like, ‘Oh, because I believe in Ayn Rand I must be an
atheist, I must believe in everybody needs to be selfish all the
time, and I must believe that Howard Roark is great and Ellsworth
Toohey is evil,’ but she’s one of many authors I’ve read. I like
Barbara Kingsolver, too.”

Hayek? “I wouldn’t say I’m like some great Hayek scholar.”

Rothbard? “There are many people I’m sure who are more
schooled.”

Reason on Rand Paul
here
.

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Ukrainians in War-Torn East Topple Massive Lenin Statue

In the early hours of Sunday reportedly thousands of Ukrainian
protesters in the nation’s war-torn east toppled a 28-foot tall
statue of Soviet Russian leader and icon Vladimir Lenin.

When the statue came down, Ukraine’s interior minister wrote on
Facebook, “Lenin? Let him fall. As long as this bloody communist
idol does not take more victims with it when it goes.” Lenin was
responsible for mass killings of countless thousands
in Ukraine and other countries in the Soviet sphere of
influence.

As this Lenin monument fell, the regional governor signed a last
minute order OKing its demolition. The BBC suggests this
was “to save face” while The Independent
suggests
it was done as “a way to decriminalize the actions of
the protesters.”

“Some 168 Lenin monuments have been destroyed in Ukraine since
the first
was felled
 in the capital of Kiev last December” when a
pro-democracy, pro-western began, notes Mashable, which
also points out that some of Ukraine’s aggressive nationalists
participated in this weekend’s toppling.

Elsewhere in Eastern Europe, people have
been
defacing old Soviet monuments
to tick off Russia. One Polish
town actually erected a
new statue of the dictator
; He’s a garish neon green and is
taking an undignified piss.

The latest statue was located in the central square of Kharkiv,
Ukraine’s second largest city. It borders Russia, and Russian
President Vladimir Putin hopes will become part of a breakaway “New
Russia.” A poll conducted by a major Russian political opposition
leader suggests that the vast majority of Kharkiv residents
do not want to be more
closely aligned with Russia, though. 

Despite a ceasefire signed earlier this month between the
Ukrainian government and the forces Putin supports (Russians,

Chechens
,
other mercenaries
, and
some
locals), the war looks to be ramping up again with

high death tolls
reported this weekend south of Kharkiv in the
Donetsk region. 

Watch the sucker fall:

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