Month: September 2014

As experts (not President Obama) had warned:

• *CDC CONFIRMS FIRST EBOLA CASE DIAGNOSED IN THE UNITED STATES

CDC will hold a press conference at 530ET.

It appears the term "contained" means a different thing once again…. as we warned here:

There’s a roughly 25 percent chance Ebola will be detected in the United Kingdom– and as much as an 18 percent chance it will turn up in the U.S. – by the end of September, the analysis of global mobility and epidemic patterns shows. The new paper includes the top 16 countries where Ebola is most likely to spread.

Though concerning, a spread to Western nations is not the biggest threat. At most, there would be a cluster of a few cases imported to the U.S., probably through air travel.

…

“We are at a crucial point,” Vespiginani said. “If the number of cases increases and we are not able to start taming the epidemic, then it will be too late. And then it requires an effort that will be impossible to bring on the ground.”

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1tewv8Y Tyler Durden

Submitted by Martin Armstrong via Armstrong Economics blog,

Spain’s constitutional court has decided to suspend Catalonia’s referendum on independence following a request from the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.

This ruthless undemocratic pretend leader jumps whatever height the EU Commission tells him to do betraying his own country to the rising dictatorship of Brussels.

As reported, a court spokeswoman stated that the 12 judges reached the decision to suspend Catalonia’s November independence referendum after an hour-long emergency meeting.

They too are a total disgrace to the very idea of democracy and the West should just stop the pretense that they are any different from Russia.

Power devolves to dictatorship whenever there are no checks and balances.

This is a simple truth of history without exceptions.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1rDUMsw Tyler Durden

Submitted by Martin Armstrong via Armstrong Economics blog,

Spain’s constitutional court has decided to suspend Catalonia’s referendum on independence following a request from the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy.

This ruthless undemocratic pretend leader jumps whatever height the EU Commission tells him to do betraying his own country to the rising dictatorship of Brussels.

As reported, a court spokeswoman stated that the 12 judges reached the decision to suspend Catalonia’s November independence referendum after an hour-long emergency meeting.

They too are a total disgrace to the very idea of democracy and the West should just stop the pretense that they are any different from Russia.

Power devolves to dictatorship whenever there are no checks and balances.

This is a simple truth of history without exceptions.

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1rDUMsw Tyler Durden

Despite the ubiquitous v-shaped recovery in stocks from the US open to EU close (decoupling entirely from bonds), stocks slumped into the end of the quarter leaving the S&P and Dow barely positive for Q3 and Russell 2000 down 7.9% – its worst quarter since Q2 2011 (and -4.9% year-to-date). Treasury yields flip-flopped around in a 4-5bps range with a late-day ramp (suggesting liquidations cough PIMCO cough) leaving 30Y -1bps on the week. The USDollar suged higher in the European session and traded lower in the US session. The bigger news on the day was the carnage in commodities that appeared to occur around the European close (desk chatter of commodity fund liquidations). Silver and WTI Crude were monkey-hammered, gold and copper dropped to down 1% on the week. VIX pumped and dumped again but closed above 16. Stocks closed very weak with Russell tumbling to not "off the lows."

 

Year-to-date, bonds are the big winners (long-end +14.2%) with the Dollar and S&P up around 6.7%, Gold unch, and Silver -12.7%.

 

On the quarter, Russell 2000 is the big loser but it was hardly a big one for the rest of the US equity market… (woirst Quarter for S&P since Q4 2012)

 

30Y bonds massively outperformed in Q3 (while 5Y drastially underperformed) with a 30bps flattening in 5s30s over the quarter…

 

And High Yield credit notably underperformed and decoupled from stocks…

 

The USD surged on the quarter… a oneway street

 

Commodities all slid, led by Silver…

*  *  *

On the day, Equities followed yesterday's playbook pivoiting around the European close but closed very weak today…

 

Stocks decoupled from bonds once again out of the gate… and then bonds and stocks weakened late on..

 

 

USDJPY seemed modestly in control…

 

Treasury yields chopped around today closing higher on the day…

 

FX markets once again saw USD buying in Europe and EUR buying in US…

 

Commodities on the day were monkey-hammered from the US open to EU close…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1pEtSLP Tyler Durden

“Central Bankers have moved from being ‘nudgers’ on monetary policy to basically managing fiscal policy,” warns Rick Santelli, adding that “in the West, it’s now basically the same.” As Santelli points out so accurately, the central bankers have admitted as such, noting “they have to dabble in that direction because nothing can get done in ‘politics'” in the US or Europe “for the people – the voters.” What this has done, Santelli chides calmly is “take the voters out of the game.” Simply put, he blasts, “if central banks hadn’t had such a large foray into politics, politicians would have had to sink or swim on the merit – or lack therein – of their policies… that weren’t creating the growth.” He concludes ominously that the ‘spread’ between central-bank-inspired “stability” and real-world fiscal-policy-inspired “growth” has never been wider.

 

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1uzmlpb Tyler Durden

“Central Bankers have moved from being ‘nudgers’ on monetary policy to basically managing fiscal policy,” warns Rick Santelli, adding that “in the West, it’s now basically the same.” As Santelli points out so accurately, the central bankers have admitted as such, noting “they have to dabble in that direction because nothing can get done in ‘politics'” in the US or Europe “for the people – the voters.” What this has done, Santelli chides calmly is “take the voters out of the game.” Simply put, he blasts, “if central banks hadn’t had such a large foray into politics, politicians would have had to sink or swim on the merit – or lack therein – of their policies… that weren’t creating the growth.” He concludes ominously that the ‘spread’ between central-bank-inspired “stability” and real-world fiscal-policy-inspired “growth” has never been wider.

 

 

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1uzmlpb Tyler Durden

Submitted by Gavekal Capital blog,

You all remember March 6th, 2009, right? Some days are easier to remember than others and March 6th, 2009 will not easily be forgotten as that was the day when the S&P 500 made its now infamous "666" intraday low and it also marked the closing price low of 683 for the S&P 500 during the financial crisis. Seems like a very long-time ago as the S&P 500 is roughly 1300 points higher than the intraday financial crisis low.

Interestingly, as of the close yesterday, the spread between the 10-year treasury and the 30-year treasury fell to its lowest level (69 bps) since that infamous day.

Since April 2013, the long-end of the yield curve has steadily fallen by 55 basis points.

It is not just the long-end of the yield curve that has narrowed. Inflation expectations implied by both 10-year and 30-year TIPS have fallen substantially since the beginning of August.  

Breakeven inflation implied by 30-year TIPS has fallen by 25 basis points and breakeven inflation implied by 10-year TIPS has fallen by 34 basis points.

 

The spread between 10-year and 30-year TIPS has also narrowed by 25 basis points since August 13th.

 

If the dollar continues to strengthen, it seems reasonable to expect the spread between 10-year and 30-year TIPS has further to fall.

 

*  *  *

So what do bonds "know"?

via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/1uzmlp7 Tyler Durden