Federal Reserve survey: Obamacare is hurting the economy

cbo obamacare will lead to 2 million fewer workers in the labor force by 2017 Federal Reserve survey: Obamacare is hurting the economy

September 30, 2014
Santiago, Chile

Earlier this month both the New York and Philadelphia Federal Reserves published the results of a survey they conducted asking business owners how the Affordable Care Act has changed how they operate.

Bear in mind, healthcare reform was sold on the basis that it would be good for the American people and good for the US economy.

Their economic reasoning was that the amount of money currently being spent on medical care in the US would be reduced. And that spending would shift to more productive areas of the economy.

But then, earlier this year, it turned out that the exact opposite happened.

Healthcare spending as a proportion of GDP had actually gone UP rather than down after the introduction of Obamacare.

So then the government flipped the message around. Suddenly the healthcare spending increase wasn’t a sign of failure, it was a sign of success!

That extra 0.1% of GDP that came from increased government spending in the last quarter of 2013 was all that kept the US from slumping back in to recession. Thus, Obamacare had saved the economy!

Now the Fed is chiming in with its own data showing that, in general, Obamacare has had a negative impact on the labor market.

21.6% of firms surveyed said that they were going to employ fewer workers as a result of the Affordable Care Act.

And another 20.2% said they were shifting from full-time employees to a part-time workforce as a result of the law.

Only 2.3% said there was a beneficial impact to employment as a result of the Act, and a whopping 81.4% of businesses said that their per-employee costs were increasing as a result of the Act.

Moreover, 36.4% of businesses plan on increasing the prices they charge their customers as a result of the Act, essentially passing on the costs of the legislation to consumers.

As for the quality of care itself, a survey of 3,072 physicians nationwide by medical HR firm Jackson Cocker showed that 44% of physicians are not planning to participate in the ACA network. Only 32% are participating or plan to join.

And incredibly, 60% of physicians surveyed said they expected the quality of patient care to be negatively impacted as a result of ACA, vs. only 14% who thought the law would have a positive impact.

None of this sounds particularly beneficial to the economy, or to the American people.

It was a really noble and compassionate idea. All they wanted was to help people who don’t have access to quality medical care.

But the execution was a total failure, both in deed and concept.

You cannot legislate your way to high quality medical care any more that you can legislate sunshine.

It’s the entire system that’s broken.

There’s too much expensive regulation, cost prohibitive malpractice insurance brought on by frivolous lawsuits, shortages in workers with critical skills, and crippling taxes that take away much of physicians’ financial incentive to practice medicine.

There are so many things wrong with this picture, and many of them are caused by the absurd amount of laws already on the books.

This isn’t something you fix by passing even more laws. That has the exact opposite effect.

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Did The Winter War Just Begin? Russian Gas Supplies To Europe Plunge 15%, Ukraine Transit Slashed 54%

Just a week ago, the Russian energy minister made the first public ‘threat’ of gas supply “throttling” disruptions to Europe but judging by the data that has just been released, it appears the ‘throttling’ has begun. Bloomberg reports that Russian gas supplies to Europe fell 15% year-over-year in Q3 – the most in over two years – as natural gas transit through Ukraine plunged 54% year-over-year. In 2013, Gazprom sent 60% of its supply via Ukraine pipelines, in August that dropped to 39%, and in September only 34%. Of course, Europe remains confident its storage efforts will buffer any “Winter War” disruptions, as we noted here, but as Citi warned previously, “if colder weather arrives, storage levels will be drained,” and then there is the Spring (and German industry needs).

As Bloomberg reports,

Russian 3Q Gas Supplies to Europe Drop ~15% Y/y, Most in 2 Yrs

 

Export outside CIS in 3Q set to decline to ~34bcm from 40.4bcm last yr; biggest drop since at least 2Q 2012, according to Bloomberg calculations, based on preliminary data of Russian Energy Ministry’s CDU-TEK unit.

 

Exports fell 15% in 2Q 2012; decreased 25% in 3Q 2010

 

Russia Cuts Sept. Natgas Transit Via Ukraine 54% Y/y to 3.7Bcm

 

Russia’s natgas transit through Ukrainian pipelines continues decreasing; it dropped to ~3.7bcm this mo. vs 4.5bcm in Aug. and 8.1bcm in Sept. 2013, according to Bloomberg calculations, based on website data from Ukraine’s pipeline operator UkrTransGaz, Energy Ministry.

 

Transit to EU ~3.5bcm in Sept. vs 4.4bcm in Aug.

 

Total Russian deliveries via Ukraine in Jan.-Sept. ~50bcm vs 62.5bcm yr earlier

 

Gazprom Cuts Sept. Transit Via Ukraine to 34% of Exports

 

Gazprom sent ~34% of Sept. natgas exports outside CIS using Ukrainian pipelines vs 39% last mo., ~60% in Sept. 2013, according to Bloomberg calculations based on preliminary data from Ukraine’s pipeline operator UkrTransGaz, energy ministries of Ukraine, Russia.

 

Ukraine transshipped ~42% of Russian gas to Europe in Jan.-Sept. vs 51% last yr

 

UkrTransGaz ships Russia’s gas to borders w/ Moldova, 4 EU countries: Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Romania, which    delivers some volumes to Turkey

*  *  *

Who will be hurt most?

 

*  *  *

As we discussed before, Europe is confident it can withstand a disruption as it has been storing gas ahead of the winter.

However…

European storage facilities contained a record 75.7 billion cubic meters (2.7 trillion cubic feet) of gas yesterday, making them more than 91 percent full, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, a Brussels-based lobby group.

 

“If colder weather arrives, then storage levels could well be drained,” Citigroup said.




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WATCH: Town Wants to Ban Cameras After Cop’s Obama Rant Goes Viral (Nanny of the Month, Sept. 2014)

“Town Wants to Ban Cameras After Cop’s Obama Rant Goes
Viral (Nanny of the Month, Sept. 2014)” is the latest
video from ReasonTV. Watch above or click on the link below for
video, full text, supporting links, downloadable versions, and more
ReasonTV clips.

View this article.

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Watch Bill Gates Confirm Everybody’s Worst Fears About Common Core

Bill GatesCommon Core critics contend that national
education standards will erode local decision-making on school
issues while promoting a national curriculum of sorts. Most Core
proponents generally dismiss these concerns as unfounded.

But Bill Gates, a major financial backer of the standards, was
atypically direct about what peddlers of standardization are trying
to accomplish during a
Politico
event on Monday. Rather than defend Common Core
from accusations of creeping nationalization, he finally confirmed
that yes, this is exactly what Core proponents are trying to
accomplish—less local autonomy is a good thing, as he
says in the video
:

“Common Core I would have thought of as more of a technocratic
issue. The basic idea of, ‘should we share an electrical plug
across the country?’ Well, you can get partisan about that I
suppose. Should Georgia have a different railroad width than
everybody else? Should they teach multiplication in a different
way? Oh that’s brilliant [sarcasm], who came up with that idea?
Common Core, the idea that what you should know at various grades,
that that should be well-structured and you should really insist on
kids knowing something so you can build on it, I did not really
expect that to become a big political issue.”

There you have it. Gates views the education system—the many
myriad ways Americans could pass on knowledge to their children—as
akin to choosing the correct railroad track size. The implication
is obvious: after all, there is only one right railroad track size!
Similarly, there is only one correct way to teach children, and all
children must be taught that way, according to Gates.

This way of thinking goes against
everything the reform movement
has come to understand over the
last few decades about what works in schools: greater
standardization is not the answer; schools languish
under stifling centralization; every kid is unique and has
different educational needs; and local authorities—especially
parents—are best suited to the task of plotting their children’s
educational paths. 

Nurturing the mind of a child is an infinitely more complex task
than choosing an electrical plug. It’s not as simple as plugging
the right cord into a child’s brain and flipping a switch.

Gates says that Georgia shouldn’t teach multiplication a
different way than the rest of the country. But what if there is a
style or method that works in Georgia but not New York? What if
Georgia discovers a better way? 

And even if it were true that all U.S. student should be
learning the exact same thing in the exact same way,
no reasonable person
could be persuaded that Common Core is it.
That’s because scant evidence exists in Common Core’s favor—backers
are relying on little more than their faith in an unproven
methodology.

Standardization isn’t good, and these specific standards aren’t
good (or at least, there isn’t a lot of evidence in their favor).
Which side in this debate is being unreasonably ideological,
again?

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Watch Bill Gates Confirm Everybody's Worst Fears About Common Core

Bill GatesCommon Core critics contend that national
education standards will erode local decision-making on school
issues while promoting a national curriculum of sorts. Most Core
proponents generally dismiss these concerns as unfounded.

But Bill Gates, a major financial backer of the standards, was
atypically direct about what peddlers of standardization are trying
to accomplish during a
Politico
event on Monday. Rather than defend Common Core
from accusations of creeping nationalization, he finally confirmed
that yes, this is exactly what Core proponents are trying to
accomplish—less local autonomy is a good thing, as he
says in the video
:

“Common Core I would have thought of as more of a technocratic
issue. The basic idea of, ‘should we share an electrical plug
across the country?’ Well, you can get partisan about that I
suppose. Should Georgia have a different railroad width than
everybody else? Should they teach multiplication in a different
way? Oh that’s brilliant [sarcasm], who came up with that idea?
Common Core, the idea that what you should know at various grades,
that that should be well-structured and you should really insist on
kids knowing something so you can build on it, I did not really
expect that to become a big political issue.”

There you have it. Gates views the education system—the many
myriad ways Americans could pass on knowledge to their children—as
akin to choosing the correct railroad track size. The implication
is obvious: after all, there is only one right railroad track size!
Similarly, there is only one correct way to teach children, and all
children must be taught that way, according to Gates.

This way of thinking goes against
everything the reform movement
has come to understand over the
last few decades about what works in schools: greater
standardization is not the answer; schools languish
under stifling centralization; every kid is unique and has
different educational needs; and local authorities—especially
parents—are best suited to the task of plotting their children’s
educational paths. 

Nurturing the mind of a child is an infinitely more complex task
than choosing an electrical plug. It’s not as simple as plugging
the right cord into a child’s brain and flipping a switch.

Gates says that Georgia shouldn’t teach multiplication a
different way than the rest of the country. But what if there is a
style or method that works in Georgia but not New York? What if
Georgia discovers a better way? 

And even if it were true that all U.S. student should be
learning the exact same thing in the exact same way,
no reasonable person
could be persuaded that Common Core is it.
That’s because scant evidence exists in Common Core’s favor—backers
are relying on little more than their faith in an unproven
methodology.

Standardization isn’t good, and these specific standards aren’t
good (or at least, there isn’t a lot of evidence in their favor).
Which side in this debate is being unreasonably ideological,
again?

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America’s “All Important” Housing Market Flashing Red After Bad Data Double Whammy

Those who read Zero Hedge regularly will be aware that for us no other regional US housing market is more important than that of the San Francisco. Recall from June:

When it comes to critical housing markets in the US, none is more important than San Francisco.

Courtesy of its location, not only does it reflect the general Fed-driven liquidity bubble which is the tide rising all housing boats across the US, but due to its proximity to both Silicon Valley and China, it also benefits from two other liquidity bubbles: that of tech, and of course, the Chinese $25 trillion financial debt monster, where since the local housing bubble has burst, local oligarchs have no choice but to dump their cash abroad.

It is no surprise that during ever single previous bubble peak, San Francisco home prices managed to post a 20% annual increase, starting with the dot com bubble in the year 2000, the first (not to be confused with the current) housing bubble peaking around 2005, and then the European sovereign debt bubble.

Which is why, while today’s Case Shiller data was widely disappointing across the board, indicating a significant slowdown in price gains (and on a sequential seasonally adjusted basis, practically a decline), the one market we paid particular attention to was San Francisco. What we found is a red flag for everyone waiting to time the bursting of the latest housing bubble. Because after an unlucky 13 months of posting consecutive 20% Y/Y price gains, the San Francisco bubble appears to have finally burst, posting “just” an 18.2% price increase, the lowest since January of 2013.

Well, in the aftermath of yesterday’s data which beyond a reasonable doubt showed that the Chinese housing bubble has burst, we can now report that the “flashing red” market that is San Francisco was just smacked by a “double whammy” perfect storm, when not only was the annual increase in home prices the lowest it has been since October 2012 (but in the wrong direction), and next month the July double-digit Y/Y increase of 10.3% will once again be single digits, first positive and soon negative, an inflection which has in the past only happened when a major bubble has just burst as shown below…

 

… but that according to the just reported Case Shiller data, San Francisco was also the only city to see a monthly decline in house prices…

… which now also means that the ultra high end of US housing is now sliding fast, and that unless some other central banks steps up and resumes the injections of some $100 billion in outside money into inflating asset prices such as stocks and billionaire mansions, then all bets are soon off.




via Zero Hedge http://ift.tt/10k4aHE Tyler Durden

America's "All Important" Housing Market Flashing Red After Bad Data Double Whammy

Those who read Zero Hedge regularly will be aware that for us no other regional US housing market is more important than that of the San Francisco. Recall from June:

When it comes to critical housing markets in the US, none is more important than San Francisco.

Courtesy of its location, not only does it reflect the general Fed-driven liquidity bubble which is the tide rising all housing boats across the US, but due to its proximity to both Silicon Valley and China, it also benefits from two other liquidity bubbles: that of tech, and of course, the Chinese $25 trillion financial debt monster, where since the local housing bubble has burst, local oligarchs have no choice but to dump their cash abroad.

It is no surprise that during ever single previous bubble peak, San Francisco home prices managed to post a 20% annual increase, starting with the dot com bubble in the year 2000, the first (not to be confused with the current) housing bubble peaking around 2005, and then the European sovereign debt bubble.

Which is why, while today’s Case Shiller data was widely disappointing across the board, indicating a significant slowdown in price gains (and on a sequential seasonally adjusted basis, practically a decline), the one market we paid particular attention to was San Francisco. What we found is a red flag for everyone waiting to time the bursting of the latest housing bubble. Because after an unlucky 13 months of posting consecutive 20% Y/Y price gains, the San Francisco bubble appears to have finally burst, posting “just” an 18.2% price increase, the lowest since January of 2013.

Well, in the aftermath of yesterday’s data which beyond a reasonable doubt showed that the Chinese housing bubble has burst, we can now report that the “flashing red” market that is San Francisco was just smacked by a “double whammy” perfect storm, when not only was the annual increase in home prices the lowest it has been since October 2012 (but in the wrong direction), and next month the July double-digit Y/Y increase of 10.3% will once again be single digits, first positive and soon negative, an inflection which has in the past only happened when a major bubble has just burst as shown below…

 

… but that according to the just reported Case Shiller data, San Francisco was also the only city to see a monthly decline in house prices…

… which now also means that the ultra high end of US housing is now sliding fast, and that unless some other central banks steps up and resumes the injections of some $100 billion in outside money into inflating asset prices such as stocks and billionaire mansions, then all bets are soon off.




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Consumer Confidence Plunges, Biggest Miss Since Jan 2012

Despite stock indices hitting record highs (apart from small caps and 50% of individual stocks down notably), The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence narrowed its divergence with UMich confidence and tumbled to 86.0 (missing expectations of 92.5). This is the biggest miss since Jan 2012. The gap between the confidence of rich and poor narrowed as did the gap between economic confidence and consumer confidence.

Confidence missed by the most since Jan 2012…

 

Narrowing its gap to UMich confidence…

 

But the QE inspired confidence is beginning to catch down to the reality of the economic confidence

 

Charts:Bloomberg




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Elizabeth Warren ♥s the Ex-Im Bank

Elizabeth Warren voted against funding the Export-Import Bank a
few weeks ago. But is that because she wants to elizabeth warrenlive up to her reputation as a crusader against
crony capitalism or “socialism for the rich” as she calls it? Not
really, I note in the USA Today.

Warren voted against the funding because it was attached to a
bill to fund Syrian rebels. Otherwise, she’s a big fan of the bank,
which, she insists, “helps create American jobs and spur economic
growth.”

 But both those claims are laughable. So why is Warren, the
female Robin Hood, so readily abandoning her pet cause (and making
a liar and a fool of herself
again
)?

It’s because, as former Democratic Massachusetts Congressman
Barney Frank
told
the Huffington Post, Democrats have made a
tactical decision to close ranks and dump their previous opposition
to Ex-Im. Why? Because they want to wrest Corporate America — and
presumably its campaign contributions — from the GOP.

In other words, it appears the woman who went to Washington to
vanquish the corporate powers-that-be has become a classic
Washington insider serving those powers.

Go
here
to view the whole thing.

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Peter Suderman on Supply Side Health Care Reform

Could the Netflix model work in
health care? A doctor’s office in Rochester, New York is aiming to
find out. Good MD, a primary care office set up this year, charges
patients a single, flat monthly fee for unlimited visits. Monthly
charges are based on age, and extra services—whether stitches or
strep throat tests—are provided for an additional fee, posted
online and in the office. The practice doesn’t accept private
insurance at all.

The result is a system that benefits not third-party payers, but
doctors and patients, Good MD Founder Dr. Thuc
Huynh, told local TV station WROC. “Insurance isn’t who
reimburses me or dictates what we do together in terms of our
treatment. So, it’s a direct financial relationship.”

This is what the future of health care reform could look like:
It’s provider-driven. It’s consumer-focused, with an emphasis on
both price and service. And it’s happening at the margins—at a
single practice, in a single town.

As Obamacare’s has settled into place, the Republican party’s
promises to repeal and replace the law have stagnated. The law is
still unpopular, but the coverage expansion has made the already
difficult prospect of repeal harder than ever, and despite years of
promises, no obvious replacement plan has emerged. Obamacare’s
critics in Congress are still opposed to the law, but increasingly
seem unsure about what to do instead.

Senior Editor Peter Suderman writes that provider-driven
experiments like what’s happening at Good MD could help point to a
different way of thinking about the problem.

View this article.

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