Month: September 2014

The Ever-Evolving Story of the White House Fence Jumper

Secret Service scenario training.First we were
told that a man jumped the White House fence and ran across the
lawn. Then came
word that the intruder had in fact gotten through the White
House doors. Yesterday we
found out that he made it surprisingly far into the building,
passing the stairs to the first family’s living quarters and
barreling into the East Room. At this point I half expect to learn
tomorrow that the guy actually killed the president.

At any rate, The New York Post
reports that the Secret Service has taken steps to prevent
future invasions of this nature:

There are already new White House security measures
under way, according to presidential press secretary Josh Earnest.
He listed them as beefed-up foot patrols, additional surveillance
and increased training.

Additionally, the Secret Service has “changed the procedures for
ensuring that the entrance to the White House is secure,” Earnest
said—eventually explaining that meant the front door would be
locked.

“After Friday night’s incident, when the door is not in use, that
will be secure,” he explained.

Glad they worked that one out. I suspect there will be further
changes too—though just as the one post-9/11 security measure that
clearly made sense was the decision to reinforce cockpit doors, I
won’t be surprised if locking the White House is the one change to
come out of this that actually makes people more secure. At any
rate, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee is
holding a hearing on the subject right now; you can watch
it here.

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It’s Hard to Keep Up With ISIS When the President Plays Hooky From Intelligence Briefings

President Obama“Either the president doesn’t
read the intelligence he’s getting or he’s bullshitting,” a former
Pentagon official
said of President Obama after the gormless chief executive
tried to
pass the buck to the intelligence community for underestimating
ISIS. But the president likely isn’t full of shit—he’s playing
hooky from his intelligence briefings. According to the latest
report from the conservative Government Accountability Institute,
President Obama
has an overall 42.09 percent attendance rate at his Presidential
Daily Briefs. This year (marking the rise of a certain
troubling organization/new shithole country) the rate has been 37.5
percent.

President Obama’s low attendance at his briefings raised
eyebrows in the past. In the Washington Post, Marc
Thiessen raised “where in the world is Barry”
questions about the president’s absence in 2012. By contrast,
noted Thiessen, President George W. Bush “held his intelligence
meeting six days a week, no exceptions.”

The White House responded that the president reads his briefs on
his tablet whether or not he attends the meetings, so that he stays
up to speed on the big issues. The intelligence community doesn’t
seem convinced, though, as indicated by the “bulllshitting”
comment. Maybe skimming a document isn’t the equivalent of
listening to experts emphasize the highlights.

Of course, being informed about what’s going on is different
than using the information effectively. The second President Bush
reportedly
had a month’s notice that Osama Bin Laden planned to hijack
airplanes, but that didn’t prevent 9/11. Good information and good
judgment don’t necessarily go hand in hand, and this president,
like the last, has plenty of lousy decisionmaking to share across
the policy spectrum.

Being informed doesn’t necessarily imply a specific response,
either. Knowing about ISIS does not inevitably lead to a decision
to wage all out war in the Middle East, as the hawkish likes of

John McCain imply. 

But if it’s true that the briefings contained warnings about
ISIS that just got missed because the president didn’t make it to
class or do his homework, throwing the bearers of ignored news
under the bus is an exercise in lousy judgment.

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It's Hard to Keep Up With ISIS When the President Plays Hooky From Intelligence Briefings

President Obama“Either the president doesn’t
read the intelligence he’s getting or he’s bullshitting,” a former
Pentagon official
said of President Obama after the gormless chief executive
tried to
pass the buck to the intelligence community for underestimating
ISIS. But the president likely isn’t full of shit—he’s playing
hooky from his intelligence briefings. According to the latest
report from the conservative Government Accountability Institute,
President Obama
has an overall 42.09 percent attendance rate at his Presidential
Daily Briefs. This year (marking the rise of a certain
troubling organization/new shithole country) the rate has been 37.5
percent.

President Obama’s low attendance at his briefings raised
eyebrows in the past. In the Washington Post, Marc
Thiessen raised “where in the world is Barry”
questions about the president’s absence in 2012. By contrast,
noted Thiessen, President George W. Bush “held his intelligence
meeting six days a week, no exceptions.”

The White House responded that the president reads his briefs on
his tablet whether or not he attends the meetings, so that he stays
up to speed on the big issues. The intelligence community doesn’t
seem convinced, though, as indicated by the “bulllshitting”
comment. Maybe skimming a document isn’t the equivalent of
listening to experts emphasize the highlights.

Of course, being informed about what’s going on is different
than using the information effectively. The second President Bush
reportedly
had a month’s notice that Osama Bin Laden planned to hijack
airplanes, but that didn’t prevent 9/11. Good information and good
judgment don’t necessarily go hand in hand, and this president,
like the last, has plenty of lousy decisionmaking to share across
the policy spectrum.

Being informed doesn’t necessarily imply a specific response,
either. Knowing about ISIS does not inevitably lead to a decision
to wage all out war in the Middle East, as the hawkish likes of

John McCain imply. 

But if it’s true that the briefings contained warnings about
ISIS that just got missed because the president didn’t make it to
class or do his homework, throwing the bearers of ignored news
under the bus is an exercise in lousy judgment.

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Chicago PMI Misses As New Orders & Production Slump

US equity markets were sliding into the Chicago PMI print as early release indications proved correct and it missed expectations. Having flip-flopped from worst since July 2013 to almost cycle highs last month, Chicago PMI printed 60.5 (vs 62.0 expectations) hindered a drop in new orders and production. The silver lining, the employment index improved modestly. Prices Paid surged to its highest since 2012.

Chicago PMI flip-flopped again…

 

Not exactly the smoothest most consistent indicator of economic health?!




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Chicago PMI Misses As New Orders & Production Slump

US equity markets were sliding into the Chicago PMI print as early release indications proved correct and it missed expectations. Having flip-flopped from worst since July 2013 to almost cycle highs last month, Chicago PMI printed 60.5 (vs 62.0 expectations) hindered a drop in new orders and production. The silver lining, the employment index improved modestly. Prices Paid surged to its highest since 2012.

Chicago PMI flip-flopped again…

 

Not exactly the smoothest most consistent indicator of economic health?!




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Unusual Activity Surveillance

Initial risk on trade this morning.  /es futures pointing to a higher open this morning +3.00 at 1972.  Yesterday’s market pointed to a bounce of critical support levels in the /es.  /es are maintaining resistance of 1980.  Beyond that is 2000 as significant level.  Trading keeping an eye on close of month/quarter rotations and how larger desks will be structuring portfolios in the 4th quarter. October is historically volatile.  Case Shiller Home Value index is lowest in 2 years.  Eye on potential contrarian indicators such as State Street index at 10:00 A.M.  Insider purchases in SIAF, AGCO, VMEM, and EXPE.  CNET PR this following yesterdays volatility.  Futures reacted to Russia’s weighing of capital controls if net outflows intensify.  Significant syndicates FDUS, LAS, TSL, RCAP and SBRA. Upgrades include CSC, LMT< RTN. AA, CENX and TM.

Todays Slides for Download

 




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US Stocks Slide, Ruble Plunges As Russia Prepares Capital Controls

Just days after Ukraine began discussing capital controls, and Russian lawmakers passed a bill enabling asset freezes, it appears Russia has reached its limit.

  • *RUSSIA SAID TO WEIGH CAPITAL CONTROLS IF NET OUTFLOWS INTENSIFY

The Ruble is plunging towards 40 to the USD (CB intervention levels), US equity futures gapped lower, and European stocks are sliding.

As Bloomberg reports,

Russia’s central bank is weighing the introduction of temporary capital controls if the flow of money out of the country intensifies, according to two officials with direct knowledge of the discussions.

 

Such measures would be preventative and used only if net outflows rise significantly, the people said, who asked not to be identified because no decision has been made. They didn’t give a timeline or a level that may force such a move, saying they are looking at all possible scenarios.

 

The discussions are the latest sign that U.S. and European sanctions are hurting Russia and rethink policies the central bank has sought to avoid. The Economy Ministry last week raised its estimate for this year’s outflows to $100 billion from $90 billion. Russia hasn’t had a net inflow of private capital since 2007, the year after lifted restrictions.

 

Central bank Chairman Elvira Nabiullina, a former economic aide to President Vladimir Putin, said in an address to the government on Sept. 25 that “introducing capital controls doesn’t make sense.”

 

Still, if trades restrictions — such as the U.S. and EU sanctions and Russia’s retaliatory measures — are prolonged and the tax burden rises, capital outflows will intensify. That will push the regulator to shift its focus more toward ensuring financial stability from fighting inflation and use various instruments “including non-standard” means, Nabiullina said.

 

The central bank’s press service declined to comment. The Finance Ministry isn’t discussing such measures, Svetlana Nikitina, a spokeswoman, said by text message.

US equities gapped lower…

 

And the Ruble plunged…

  • *RUBLE WEAKENS TO BOUNDARY OF RUSSIA CENTRAL BANK’S TRADING BAND
  • *RUBLE WEAKENS TO LEVEL WHERE CENTRAL BANK SAYS WILL INTERVENE

 




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“Broad-Based Deceleration” – Case-Shiller Home Prices Tumble Most Since Nov 2011, 3rd Drop In A Row

For the 3rd month in a row, S&P Case-Shiller home prices fell MoM with July’s 0.5% drop the biggest since November 2011. This dragged the YoY growth to 6.75% (missing expectations of 7.4%) and its slowest rate of increase since November 2012. Non-seasonally-adjusted the drop is even larger (-0.6% MoM). Perhaps most notably San Francisco was the biggest drag on the index.

4th miss in a row for YoY home price gains and weakest growth since Nov 2012…

 

as prices fall for the 3rd month in a row…

From the report:

“The broad-based deceleration in home prices continued in the most recent data,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, home prices continue to rise at two to three times the rate of inflation. The slower pace of home price appreciation is consistent with most of the other housing data on housing starts and home sales. The rise in August new home sales — which are not covered by the S&P/Case-Shiller indices – is a welcome exception to recent trends.

 

“The 10- and 20-City Composites gained 6.7% annually with prices nationally rising at a slower pace of 5.6%. Las Vegas, one of the most depressed housing markets in the recession, is still leading the cities with 12.8% year-over-year. Phoenix, the first city to see double-digit gains back in 2012, posted its lowest annual return of 5.7% since February 2012.

 

“While the year-over-year figures are trending downward, home prices are still rising month-to-month although at a slower rate than what we are used to seeing over the past couple of years. The National Index rose 0.5%, its seventh consecutive increase. At the bottom was San Francisco with its first decline this year and the only city in the red. New York tended to underperform over the past few years but it was on top for the last two months.”

The Y/Y NSA change:

And on a monnthly basis, things are getting from bad to worse to ugly when seasonally adjusted:




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"Broad-Based Deceleration" – Case-Shiller Home Prices Tumble Most Since Nov 2011, 3rd Drop In A Row

For the 3rd month in a row, S&P Case-Shiller home prices fell MoM with July’s 0.5% drop the biggest since November 2011. This dragged the YoY growth to 6.75% (missing expectations of 7.4%) and its slowest rate of increase since November 2012. Non-seasonally-adjusted the drop is even larger (-0.6% MoM). Perhaps most notably San Francisco was the biggest drag on the index.

4th miss in a row for YoY home price gains and weakest growth since Nov 2012…

 

as prices fall for the 3rd month in a row…

From the report:

“The broad-based deceleration in home prices continued in the most recent data,” says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “However, home prices continue to rise at two to three times the rate of inflation. The slower pace of home price appreciation is consistent with most of the other housing data on housing starts and home sales. The rise in August new home sales — which are not covered by the S&P/Case-Shiller indices – is a welcome exception to recent trends.

 

“The 10- and 20-City Composites gained 6.7% annually with prices nationally rising at a slower pace of 5.6%. Las Vegas, one of the most depressed housing markets in the recession, is still leading the cities with 12.8% year-over-year. Phoenix, the first city to see double-digit gains back in 2012, posted its lowest annual return of 5.7% since February 2012.

 

“While the year-over-year figures are trending downward, home prices are still rising month-to-month although at a slower rate than what we are used to seeing over the past couple of years. The National Index rose 0.5%, its seventh consecutive increase. At the bottom was San Francisco with its first decline this year and the only city in the red. New York tended to underperform over the past few years but it was on top for the last two months.”

The Y/Y NSA change:

And on a monnthly basis, things are getting from bad to worse to ugly when seasonally adjusted:




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US Regulators Fear “Runs” From PIMCO’s Systemic Risk As Outflows Soar To 12.5% Of Assets

Things are rapidly shifting from bad to worse for PIMCO. In a triple whammy this morning, Bloomberg reports the Total Return Fund ETF (managed previously by Bill Gross) has suffered $446 million outflows (or over 12.5% of assets) so far; Morningstar downgrades the fund from ‘gold’ to ‘bronze’ citing “uncertainty regarding outflows and the reshuffling of management responsibilities”; and perhaps most concerning – given our previous warnings over bond market illiquidity – The FT reports, US regulators are monitoring trading and fund flows surrounding PIMCO’s Total Return Bond fund warning investors they should contemplate the unintended consequences of pulling their money and the possibility of systemic risk disruptions, fearful of “runs.”

 

First outflows are accelerating…

  • *PIMCO ETF GROSS MANAGED SEES RECORD $446 MILLION OUTFLOW
  • *PIMCO TOTAL RETURN ETF OUTFLOW REPRESENTS 12.5% OF SHARES

And Then…

Morningstar, the influential mutual fund research group, stripped the Total Return fund of its “gold” analyst rating late on Monday, downgrading it to “bronze” because of the “uncertainty regarding outflows and the reshuffling of management responsibilities”.

And on top of that, as The FT reports,

US regulators are monitoring trading and fund flows surrounding Pimco’s $223bn Total Return Bond fund and other products, in what could prove a test case in the debate over whether asset management groups contribute to systemic risk.

 

Officials at the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury, among other bodies, have been talking to industry executives and other investors and warning they should contemplate unintended consequences of pulling their money from Pimco.

 

…

 

It also warned that large funds might be subject to “runs” if investors believe there is an advantage to pulling their money first, and it suggested regulators gather more data to test the concerns.

*  *  *

Who could have seen that coming?




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