Will a Libertarian Play Spoiler in the Illinois Governor’s Race?

Remember back in August when
armed goons hired by the Republican Party in Illinois were
harassing people who were gathering signatures to get the
Libertarian Party on the state’s ballot? They failed and a gym
manager named Chad
Grimm from Peoria will be on the ballot representing the party
in the race for governor.

The race is
very close. Incumbent Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn
hasn’t exactly showered himself in glory with any sort of
courage in attempting to address the state’s fiscal disasters.
There are only a couple of points between him and Republican
challenger Bruce Rauner for the November election. Grimm, though,
is bringing in between five and seven percent of the votes
according to various polls. That’s enough to influence the outcome
of the election.

As is typical, conventional wisdom is that Grimm will draw votes
from the right and harm Rauner’s chances (hence the intimidation).
But Quinn is a deeply unpopular governor, and it’s a mistake to
think Grimm would draw votes from only one side. A
RealClearPolitics poll average had Rauner ahead until just
recently. In order to improve turnout from the left, the Democratic
legislature put three red meat “advisory”
questions on the ballot—whether to increase the minimum wage,
require health insurers to cover birth control, and increase income
taxes on millionaires. None of these votes are binding in any way.
Both sides are obviously very worried about the outcome, and votes
for Grimm could come from either side or from people who would just
otherwise not vote.

Fox News contributor and former pollster for President Bill
Clinton Douglas E. Schoen takes note of the rising number of people

unwilling to join the ranks of either party:

[Grimm’s] role in the election is more about sending a message
to Illinois’s established politicians. And that leaves them with
little choice but to vote for Grimm. Either that, or they bite the
bullet and vote for the deeply unpopular Quinn, or Rauner, who’s
earned a reputation as a behind the scenes Republican donor.

For frustrated Americans, biting the bullet is less appetizing
than ever before.

As the races in Kansas and South Dakota show, people are
becoming less willing to vote for a candidate they perceive as the
lesser of two evils and more willing to see a vote for an
independent or third party candidate as a positive political
statement, rather than a wasted vote. 

Put another way, voters across America are looking for ways to
register their unhappiness with the state of our politics and the
quality of our politicians. Voting for a candidate like Grimm is
one way to do that.

Recently, Brian Doherty took a closer look at three other
Libertarian Party candidates who were polling well. Read
about them here.