5 Complete Lies About America’s New $18 Trillion Debt Level

Submitted by Simon Black via Sovereign Man blog,

On October 22, 1981, the government of the United States of America accumulated an astounding $1 TRILLION in debt.

At that point, it had taken the country 74,984 days (more than 205 years) to accumulate its first trillion in debt.

It would take less than five years to accumulate its second trillion.

And as the US government just hit $18 trillion in debt on Friday afternoon, it has taken a measly 403 days to accumulate its most recent trillion.

There’s so much misinformation and propaganda about this; let’s examine some of the biggest lies out there about the US debt:

1) “They can get it under control.”

What a massive lie. Politicians have been saying for decades that they’re going to cut spending and get the debt under control.

FACT: The last time the US debt actually decreased from one fiscal year to the next was back in 1957 during the EISENHOWER administration.

FACT: For the last several years, the US government has been spending roughly 90% of its ENTIRE tax revenue just to pay for mandatory entitlement programs and interest on the debt.

This leaves almost nothing for practically everything else we think of as government.

2) “The debt doesn’t matter because we owe it to ourselves.”

This is probably the biggest lie of all. Two of the Social Security trust funds alone (OASI and DI) own $2.72 trillion of US debt.

The federal government owes this money to current and future beneficiaries of those trust funds, i.e. EVERY SINGLE US CITIZEN ALIVE.

I fail to see the silver lining here. How is it somehow ‘better’ if the government defaults on its citizens as opposed to, say, banks?

3) “They can always ‘selectively default’ on the debt”

Another lie. People think that the US government can pick and choose who it pays.

They could make a bing stink about China, for example, and then choose to default on the $2 trillion in debt that’s owed to the Chinese.

Nice try. But this would rock global financial markets and destroy whatever tiny shred of credibility the US still has.

Others have suggested that the government could selectively default on the Federal Reserve (which owns $2.46 trillion of US debt).

Again, possible. But given that the Fed (the issuer of the US dollar) would become immediately insolvent, the resulting currency crisis would be completely disastrous.

4) “It’s the NET debt that’s important”

Analysts often pay attention to a country’s “net debt” instead of its gross debt. If you have a million bucks in debt, and a million bucks in cash, then your ‘net debt’ is zero. It washes out.

Problem is, the US government doesn’t have any cash. The Treasury Department opened its business day on Friday morning with just $71.9 billion in cash, or just 0.39% of its total debt level.

Apple has more money than that.

5) “They can fix it by raising taxes”

No they can’t. Just look at the numbers. Since the end of World War II, US government tax revenue has consistently been roughly 17% of GDP.

They can raise tax rates, but it doesn’t move the needle in terms of revenue as a percentage of GDP.

In other words, the government’s ‘slice of the pie’ is pretty consistent.

You’d think with this obvious data that, rather than try to increase tax rates (ineffective), they’d do everything they can to help make a bigger pie.

Or better yet, just leave everyone the hell alone so we’re free to bake as much as we can.

But no. They have to regulate every aspect of people’s existence: How you are allowed to educate your children. What you can/cannot put in your body. How much interest you are entitled to receive on your savings.

All of this costs time, money, and efficiency. So do never-ending wars. The bombs. The drones. The airstrikes.

This isn’t about any single person or President. The problem is with the system itself.

History shows that every leading superpower from the past almost invariably fell to the same fate.

Great powers often feel that their wealth and success entitles them to spend recklessly and wage endless, arrogant wars. The Romans. The Ottoman Empire. The British.

History may not repeat but it certainly rhymes. And the lesson here is very clear: debt weakens a nation. It weakens a society.

Generations that will not even be born for decades will inherit these debts by complete accident of birth.

And the people in charge of the system have backed themselves into a corner where there is no way out other than to default– either on their creditors (creating a global financial crisis), the central bank (creating a currency crisis), or on the citizens themselves (creating an epic social crisis).

Bottom line: this is not a consequence-free environment. And while you can’t fix the debt problem, you can certainly reduce your own exposure to what happens next.




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Brian Doherty on Rand Paul: Can Interesting Be Electable?

Rand Paul announced today that he’s definitely running
for re-election to his Kentucky Senate seat. While he has not made
it official, he’s also by all available evidence running
for his party’s presidential nomination. He’s doing well
in the polls so far. 

Paul has a quality that doubtless irks his possible opponents
even as they anticipate it will provide them the weapon with which
to dispatch the troublesome constitutionalist.

As publications from Reason (first!)
to Time have noticed, as a serious national
politician and not merely an amusing/alarming maverick, Rand Paul’s
the most interesting guy in the field. This
peculiar character says and does things fresh and dramatic in
politics, within the context of his party, the context of
presidential politics writ large—on both levels he advocates things
no one else will—and the context of his own political and familial
saga—where he can be examined constantly for flip flops,
apostasy, and the struggle to escape his father Ron Paul’s
allegedly baleful (electorally) shadow.

From his staffing choices to his attempts at nuanced positions
vis a vis ISIS, surveillance, and tech policy, Rand Paul runs the
risk of giving everyone a good reason to eschew him. Senior Editor
Brian Doherty analyzes the risks and possible rewards for
libertarians of a Rand Paul who is now an undeniably serious GOP
player trying to carve an identity that is not only “interesting”
but sufficiently mainstream to win.

View this article.

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New Defense Secretary (Maybe) Picked, Detroit Has Massive Blackout, Ukraine’s New Government Forms: P.M. Links

  • Get out before sundown so the zombies don't get you.It is possible that former
    Pentagon official
    Ashton Carter
    is President Barack Obama’s pick to be the next
    secretary of defense, but it’s also possible it’s just a big
    Beltway game of telephone that will end up with some media outlet
    reporting that Elaine Schwartz, a dental hygienist from Akron,
    Ohio, will be joining the president’s cabinet.
  • A cable failure caused a
    massive power outage in Detroit
    , affecting even emergency
    responders and jails.
  • A high school student in Georgia is starting a petition to try
    to
    kill off the federal school lunch guidelines
    after a cafeteria
    worker denied her honey mustard, which certainly must be some sort
    of United Nations violation.
  • New York City has allocated $130 million to reopen Arkham Asylum

    increase health services for mentally troubled people
    in the
    criminal justice system.

  • Ukraine’s parliament
    has finally hammered out the formation of
    a new government.

  • Cyber Monday sales were up
    , but not by as much as analysts
    predicted because sales are now things that are happening all the
    time, spreading out consumer spending.

Reason’s annual Webathon is underway! Your
(tax-deductible!) gift will help

Reason magazine, Reason.com, and
Reason TV bring the case for “Free Minds and Free Markets” to
bigger and bigger audiences. For giving levels and associated swag,
go here now.

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The World’s Biggest Asymmetric Trade Just Got Bigger

By: Brad at http://ift.tt/12YmHT5

Ten days ago China cut interest rates in an effort to free up credit and stimulate the economy. This is unlikely to have much of a positive effect on economic growth in China. Rather it is likely to compound the big problem that the Chinese currently face: exports becoming increasingly uncompetitive.

China’s biggest problem is its strong currency, the renminbi, caused by a strong USD. As the USD rises its exports become less competitive. What if currently cheap Chinese products on the shop shelves worldwide become less cheap and outright expensive as the USD continues down the path of a multi-year bull market. Cutting interest rates in China won’t have any affect on making Chinese exports more competitive.

I am not an economist. Rather I am a macro trader and I look for relationships in global financial markets on which to base my views and trades. There has been considerable talk about the Chinese economic miracle over the last few years, but I believe that much of that “miracle” or “economic growth” has occurred on the back of a weak USD and cheap credit. Note how Chinese GDP started to go parabolic from about 2002 onwards.

China GDP

Also note how the USD (as per the US Dollar Index) went into a bear market at about that time:

Dollar Index

Yes, this may be a little simplistic but – what if the USD continues to rise from here and it trades at a new high within 5 years (I’m trying to be conservative), and the renminbi doesn’t depreciate against the USD in any material sense? I don’t think it takes much to work out that the Chinese economy would be in a recession if that were to occur! Either way – if the USD continues to appreciate over the coming months then the renminbi has to depreciate!

So all we have to do is to get the direction of the USD right and everything else falls into place. I have talked at length about the USD on a previous occasion. Nothing has changed to my perspectives since then, so I won’t badger on about it here.

What about interest rates? If interest rates eventually track what is happening in the economy then to me it is just a question of when, not if rates will rise in the US. Given the behavior of leading indicators, interest rates in the US are likely to rise much sooner than is generally expected. The up trend of leading economic indicators doesn’t seem to be in any danger, rather momentum appears to be gaining to the upside.

Leading Indicators

While there is a lot of debate as to when interest rates will rise, there has been little debate as to the magnitude of rate rises. Below is the yield of the US 2 year treasury; it has been engaged in a relatively tight trading range for the last 4-5 years. Usually breakouts of sideways trading ranges are dramatic. So don’t be surprised to see rates move materially higher very quickly once the US 2 year yield breaks above 1%.

US 2 Year Treasury

So we have a situation in the US where rates are getting ever so close to rising due to economic growth picking up, whereas rates are being cut in China due to economic activity slowing down. Combine this with a rising USD and it will certainly lead to a continuation of the unwind of the carry trade.

Charles Hugh Smith published a great article on the USD – “Why the Rising US Dollar Could destabilize the Global Financial System”. In the article he details the essence of the carry trade:

We might imagine that the Federal Reserve ending its vast money-issuance program of quantitative easing would lessen the global risk posed by the carry trade, as it reduces the flood of dollars seeking higher-yield homes outside the U.S.

 

But this tightening has actually increased the risk of carry trades blowing up and bringing down emerging-market economies, for it reduces the flow of fresh capital into emerging markets. As the supply of dollars dries up, demand for dollars rises as carry trades are unwound. Emerging-market currencies then weaken significantly, causing profitable carry trades to reverse into losing trades, which then causes those holding debt in dollars and assets in other currencies to dump the assets and pay off the dollar-denominated debts before the trade goes even more against them.

 

There is a positive feedback in play: the more the dollar rises, the greater the losses in carry trades denominated in the dollar, and the greater the incentive for those still in the trade to sell emerging market assets and currencies.

 

In response to these massive outflows of capital, emerging nations must raise interest rates quickly to offer incentives for capital to stay put, which then causes the cost of new loans (and doing business in general) to quickly rise to painful levels.

Although the renminbi isn’t depreciating against the USD, cutting rates in China does reduce the attractiveness of the Chinese carry trade. If the renminbi did start to depreciate against the US dollar then it would likely depreciate very quickly given the amount of capital that is locked up in the Chinese carry trade. This would lead to massive inflationary pressures that would eventually force the PBOC to raise rates to defend the currency (in so doing killing economic growth) and then we have a fully-fledged renminbi crisis on our hands.

Perhaps this is what the Chinese authorities fear, but it is what ultimately will happen if the US dollar continues its upward trajectory. The crowd has placed a very low probability of this situation playing out which is why we have begun a program of buying extremely cheap long dated call options on the USD/renminbi. Now we sit back and watch the slow motion train wreck begin to unfold.

– Brad

“Let China sleep, for when she awakes, she will shake the world.” – Napoleon Bonaparte

PS: Whether you’re an individual investor looking for high-quality research and information to help steer through increasingly treacherous markets, or an investment professional looking to provide clients with solid, expert analysis and ideas to do the same thing, this report on global debt will interest you.




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Crude Carnage Resumes But Stocks Bounce As Hindenburg Omen Strikes

Following yesterday's dead-cat-bounce, oil prices resumed their downward push today, closing just shy of the flush lows on Friday back to a $66 handle for WTI. Gold also slipped modestly with copper and silver flat as the USD surged higher (+0.75% on the day). Stocks just melted up all day long (supported by USDJPY pushing to new cycle highs over 119), stop-hunting the whole way (with the S&P breaking back above its 5-day moving-average and back into the green on the week briefly). Yesterday's losers (Trannies and Small Caps) were today's BTFD winners. Treasury yields rose notably once again (up 11-13bps on the week) as we suspect oil-producers are selling to help support their collapsing currencies. VIX closed below 13 – slammed into the close to scrape the S&P back above its 5DMA.

 

Victory, the S&P 500 is back above its 5DMA… (thanks to VIX)

 

Because when u absolutely have to have the SPX close above its 5DMA… Slam the VIX!!

 

As the S&P (and Dow) broke back into the green for the week… but could not hold it

 

With the US Open to EU Close ramp where all the gains were…

 

As USDJPY could not hold it…

 

So VIX was slammed

 

As we predicted

 

Energy stocks remain winners with Utes on the week (even as oil drops and Treasury yields rise)…

 

But things are not all they appear under the surface – there is enough anomalous highs vs lows and advancers vs decliners to trigger the Hindenburg Omen. Despite numerous false alarms, the last one – as Fed QE effect slowed – was a dramatic signal indeed…

 

And we note that CoT has not been keeping up with the index surge…

 

Treasury yields continue to increase notably this week.. which smells a lot like either rate locks for floods of new issuance (which we are not seeing) or…

 

Oil-Producers selling TSYs to recieve USDs so they can sell USDs to support their local currencies…

 

narrowing the divergence with stocks…

 

But the USD surged all day against the majors…

 

Oil prices resumed their downtrend (down 12% from initial OPEC leaks) as gold remains flat since then…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Radioshack plunged 20% to record lows on news of covenant breach claim (5Y CDS implied 99.97% chance of BK)




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Housing Fraud is Back – Real Estate Industry Intentionally Inflating Home Appraisals

Almost 40% of appraisers surveyed from Sept. 15 through Nov. 7 reported experiencing pressure to inflate values, according to Allterra Group LLC, a for-profit appraiser-advocacy firm based in Salisbury, Md. That figure was 37% in the survey for the previous year.

“If you thought what was happening before was an embarrassment, wait until the second time around,” said Joan Trice, Allterra’s chief executive and founder of the Collateral Risk Network, which represents appraisers employed by lenders and other companies and has been meeting with regulators to discuss concerns about appraisers being pressured into inflating values.

– From the Wall Street Journal article: Dodgy Home Appraisals Make a Comeback

When in doubt, just make shit up.

continue reading

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The “Panic Premium”: Beyond This Level In The USDJPY Japan Collapses

If all it took to push stocks to ever recorder(est) highs, granted on no volume, but recorder(est) highs nonetheless, was for correlation algos to pick a carry FX pair trade du jour which to push the Nikkei, or the Dax, or – most frequently – the S&P higher, then all equity indices would already been in scientific digit territory. And since they aren’t, it is only logical that prosperity through currency debasement can only “work” for so long.

But how long?

Well, when it comes to the primary carry pair du jour, the Dollar-Yen, the answer may be just a few hundred pips more, before it all comes unglued for Japan’s Prime Minister whose first stint in the role ended in a prophetic bout of epic diarrhea, Shinzo Abe.

According to a SocGen report authored by Alain Bokobza, released earlier today, all hell will break loose when the USDJPY, currently trading at 7 year highs north of 119, leaves 123 in the rearview mirror.To wit:

To leverage Abenomics in an investment strategy has clearly become more difficult as the balance between the fiscal and monetary policies remains unclear, making it a source of instability and pushing the yen into a very high volatility regime that prevents foreign investors from hedging at a reasonable price.

 

As long as the domestic bond market remains protected by central bank buying, and up to dollar/yen levels of around 123 (SGe end 2015), the equity market should continue to react positively (corresponding level for the Topix: 1,575).

 

Beyond that threshold, there is a risk that current correlations could break and change to those prior to 2006. A collapse of the yen (not SG’s central scenario) could then create a “panic premium” on Japanese assets, in which case the yen would fall much further still, putting JGBs at risk and sending the equity market sharply down.

And yet paradoxically, none other than that “other” SocGen strategist, Albert Edwards, correctly predicted back in September not only USDJPY 120 as the next key level for the Yen (months before Paul Krugman became Japan’s de facto central bank head, a move the soon to be annihilated nation will forever regret), but a few weeks ago forecast 145 in the Dollar Yen as soon as Q1 2015.

In other words, the French bank not only just planted the bogey beyond which Abenomics loses control (because central planning really is, is a self-fulfilling prophecy), but is explicitly predicting precisely that.

Then again, a complete collapse in the world’s third largest economy, in lieu of a global war, may be just what the Keynesian doctor ordered – just imagine the excuses the Fed would have to resume printing then: “we don’t want to do push CTRL-P, but Japan’s economic depression simply left us no choice…” 




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The Middle Class Spending Crash Explained

With Black Friday sales plunging and Cyber Monday growth slowing, it appears the chicken of stagnant wages and debt-saturation are coming home to roost for a massacred middle-class America. However, as WSJ reports “we are buying less stuff,” because the basic costs of necessities such as healthcare, food eaten at home, rent, education, and cellphones have surged.

 

 

As The Wall Street Journal reports,

Consumer spending continues to make up just over two-thirds of the U.S. economy. But where households spend that money has shifted significantly.

 

To see how it has moved, the Journal analyzed Labor Department data on 2013 out-of-pocket spending for the middle 60% of the population by income—households earning between about $18,000 and $95,000 a year, before taxes.

 

The data show they are losing ground. Overall spending for the group rose by about 2.3% over the six-year period from 2007, even as inflation totaled about 12%. At the same time, income for the group stagnated, rising less than half a percent.

 

With health care and other costs rising, these consumers spent less on furniture, entertainment, clothing and even child care, the Journal analysis found.

“Part of the story is that your income growth is slowing,” said Steven Fazzari, an economist and chairman of the sociology department at Washington University in St. Louis. “They’re spending more on necessities, cutting back on other types.”

 

 

Inflation much…

The overall cost of health care rose by 21% between 2007 and 2013, according to separate data from the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. And employees paid more for workplace insurance, averaging $380 a month for family coverage in 2013, up 39% from 2007, data from the Kaiser Family Foundation shows.

 

This year, overall health-care spending is expected to continue growing at a modest pace, but government projections suggest U.S. households may spend slightly less, as more people obtain insurance, premium subsidies or Medicaid coverage.

 

Spending on mobile-phone service, meanwhile, has soared, rising nearly 50% since 2007, the year the iPhone came out and data plans became more commonplace.

 

Similarly, spending on home Internet service has soared by more than 80%. Last year, it made up about 0.8% of spending for middle income households, up from 0.4% six years earlier.

And this means discretionary spending has collapsed…

To make up the difference, middle income Americans have cut costs where they can. Spending on event admission and fees has fallen 16.5%, while spending for a broad category that includes boats, motor-homes, cameras and party rentals has fallen 31%.

 

Spending on household textiles, including bath and bed linens, has fallen 26.5%. Spending on care for children and the elderly has fallen 25%.

Simply put, the American Middle-class…

“I buy less stuff for myself,” she said. “We’ve cut a lot out—a lot of extras you used to get, so you can afford food and the electric. And you’re trying to save for retirement.”

*  *  *




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Ex EU President Van Rompuy “Hit The Jackpot”, Paid Almost $1Million “For Doing Nothing”

It’s good to be king (or Europe). Former European Council President Herman van Rompuy, derided for “damp rag” ineptness by UKIP’s Nigel Farage, will receive around $900,000 over the next 3 years as a “transition allowance” for doing absolutely nothing in retirement. What is even more egregious, as The Telegraph reports, Van Rompuy will pay a reduced “EU Community” tax rate, considerably lower than the Belgian income tax rate on his ill-gotten gains. As Farage exclaims, having driven millions of Europeans into poverty and unemployment during his reign, Van Rompuy “hit the jackpot.”

 

As Sputnink News reports,

Former European Council president Herman Van Rompuy will be paid nearly $1 million for the next three years for doing nothing, the Telegraph reported.

 

Van Rompuy, who stepped down as the European Council president Monday, will be paid a “transitional allowance” worth $210,290 a year until December 2017. In addition, the retiree will be entitled to a lifetime EU pension of $81,700 a year and a one-off payment of $33,000, making his total earnings more than $900,000 over the next three years, the Daily Mail said.

 

As a retiree, Van Rompuy will not have to do any job for his “transitional allowance”, which is also eligible for a reduced EU “community” tax rate, rather than the Belgian income tax rate, according to the Daily Mail.

 

 

During his time in office, Van Rompuy was no stranger to controversy and public criticism. According to Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP, during Van Rompuy’s term millions of Europeans were driven into poverty and unemployment by the Eurozone crisis, while Van Rompuy himself “hit the jackpot”, the Telegraph said.

*  *  *

And as a gentle reminder of Van Rompuy’s utter uselessness… we leave it to Nigel Farage…




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