Wife, Daughter Of ISIS Leader Captured

In a surprise development involving the leader of the Islamic State, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, earlier today security officials announced that the Lebanese army had captured the wife and daughter of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi as they crossed from Syria nine days ago. According to Reuters, the woman was identified as Saja al-Dulaimi, an Iraqi, by a Lebanese security official and a senior political source. The Lebanese newspaper As-Safir reported she had been detained in coordination with “foreign intelligence.”

The official spin is clear: in Reuters’ words, “the arrest is a blow to Baghdadi and could be used as a bargaining chip against his group, which has captured many foreign, Iraqi and Syrian prisoners and declared a caliphate in territory it has seized in Syria and Iraq.” Unless, of course, it isn’t, and it merely sets off the ISIS leader even more. 

A senior Lebanese security official said Baghdadi’s wife had been traveling with one of their daughters, contradicting earlier reports that it was his son. DNA tests were conducted to verify it was Baghdadi’s child, the official said.

 

They were detained in northern Lebanon. Investigators were questioning her at the Lebanese defense ministry. There was no immediate reaction from Islamic State websites.

What is probably more surprising is where al-Dulaimi was coming from: she was one of 150 women released from a Syrian government jail in March as part of a prisoner swap that led to the release of 13 nuns taken captive by al Qaeda-linked militants in Syria, according to media reports at the time.

A source with contacts with Iraqi intelligence said the captured woman was an Iraqi wife of Baghdadi’s, but could not confirm the name. There was cooperation between Iraqi and Lebanese authorities leading up to her capture, the source said.

Then again, since Baghdadi has three wives, two Iraqis and one Syrian, according to tribal sources in Iraq, any leverage that the capture of one of his wives may provide will likely be offset by the dilution of the other two wives who are still out in the wild.

And while Baghdadi’s response is still TBD, what is known is that based on an ABC report yesterday, U.S. officials warned military personnel that Islamic State forces may be planning attacks against them in the United States.

A joint intelligence bulletin sent to law enforcement agencies by the FBI and the Department of Homeland Security urged members of the U.S. military to erase from their online social media accounts anything would draw attention from “violent extremists,” or reveal service members’ identity, the news network said.

 

ABC said the government indicated late Sunday it had obtained intelligence that Islamic State militants, who have taken over parts of Iraq and Syria with the intention of setting up a fundamentalist caliphate, were targeting the United States within its borders.

“The FBI recently received reporting indicating individuals overseas are spotting and assessing like-minded individuals who are willing and capable of conducting attacks against current and former U.S.-based members of the United States military,” the bulletin said, according to a Reuters source.

Which is to say that someone in the US military complex is surprised that ISIS, which is being hunted down in Syria and Iraq by US “military advisors” on a daily basis, is thinking of retaliating. One can almost see Obama fired Chuck Hegel.

And furthermore, it also seems likely to quite likely that the capture of the immediate familiy of a person portrayed constantly in the media as a bloodthirsty monster, will hardly do much to boost a period of widespread peace and prosperity in the country that was once called Iraq (especially if some 50,000 army members were recently discovered to be “ghosts”). Although stranger things have happened.




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Scott Shackford on Huffington Post Live at 11:10 a.m. (Eastern), Discussing Separating the Church and State on Gay Marriage

"Yes, they should be separate." Shortest HuffPo Live segment ever.I’ll be joining a panel
discussion at Huffington Post Live at 11:10 a.m. this morning
(that’s 8:10 a.m. for you West Coasters) that asks the question,
“Should Religious and Civil Marriages Be Separate?” Here’s their
summary:

As gay marriage laws change, some conservative pastors say they
won’t perform any type of civil marriage. Even liberal clergy are
asking if civil and religious unions should be explicitly distinct.
Does marriage need a separation of church and state?

I don’t know if we’ll get into any sort of libertarian
discussion about whether marriage should be separated from the
state entirely, but we’ll see.
Tune in here
.

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Federal Debt Soared Above $18 Trillion Last Week

Congratulations, America! You, or rather your elected officials,
smashed through the $18 trillion ceiling last week, raising the
United States government’s total outstanding
public debt to new heights
and leaving shards of devalued
greenbacks scattered around the place.

Woo hoo.

One
decade ago
, on December 1, 2004, the sum was a wussy $7.5
trillion. It took a lot of hard work to run up another 10-plus
trillion in debt in those intervening years. This country won’t
bankrupt itself, you know. It takes government officials years of
subsidizing, overpromising, overspending, and maybe some outright
theft to put that many numbers in a row, slather them with red ink,
and hand the bill to our grandkids.

The killjoys at the Congressional Budget Office say this pattern
of continuing deficits and riding debt threatens to drain money
from private investment, compromise national security, and lock the
federal government into doing little other than paying the interest
on what’s it already borrowed—a situation they call
“unsustainable
.”

But that’s just crazy talk.
Who says
you can’t just borrow your way into the future and
never pay it back without nasty consequences? Whaddya say we shoot
for $50 trillion?

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How Goldman Sachs Became Broke Venezuela’s Loan Shark

Add the title of “loan shark to Dictatorships” to Goldman Sachs many varied roles around the world. As Venezuela teeters on the brink of tearings its utopian social fabric apart (by which we mean paying its soldiers while impoverishing its people to in order to maintain ‘peace’) crushed by plunging oil revenues, everyone’s favorite American bank ‘generously’ offered to buy (from Venezuela) $4bn worth of oil debt owed by the Dominican Republic for 41% of its value, according to El Nuevo Herald. Doing god’s work indeed. “This is a tremendous bargain for Goldman,” said one source, as Venezuela is “liquidating the few assets they have, trying to find the cash flow, cash, they do not have.”

 

Venezuelan bonds continues to crash

 

As El Nuevo Herald reports,

Cornered by liquidity problems, the regime of Nicholas Maduro sold to US investment bank Goldman Sachs obligations for more than $4,000 million Dominican Republic owed to Venezuela for oil supplied through Petrocaribe, receiving only 41 percent the total value of debt, sources close to the operation.

 

The transaction would involve a gain of 59 percent for Goldman Sachs, equivalent to $ 2.360 billion, on payment of $ 1.750 million grant to Venezuela for the obligations in August this year totaled about $ 4.090 million.

 

According to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity, Goldman Sachs is currently holding talks with the Venezuelan government to reach a similar agreement on oil debt that Jamaica has with the South American nation.

 

 

“This is a tremendous bargain for Goldman Sachs,” said one of the sources. “The only negative is that it is a debt to 20 years, but the discount is as bestial, Goldman snatched from the hands in exchange for giving PDVSA a little liquidity.”

 

But the operation denotes a high degree of desperation of the Venezuelan state whose oil sales generate more than 95 percent of the dollars entering the country.

 

“They’re liquidating the few assets they have, trying to find the cash flow, cash, they do not have,” said the source.

 

 

“They’re scraping the pot” from New York said Venezuela’s former ambassador to the UN, Diego Arria, who has close links with the international financial sector.

 

It is also a clear signal to the international markets on the economic problems facing the regime.

 

“A discount as significant [59 percent], besides the great monetary loss for the nation, is a great loss of credibility on the Venezuelan financial situation,” said Arria.

 

“But it could also be a crime,” the diplomat added. “Giving such obligations at a discount from those proportions, is attacking the national heritage”.

 

 

But the financial crisis facing the regime generated great doubts about the country’s ability to continue to support the costs of subsidizing oil economy with Cuba and its other allies.

*  *  *
Instabiliteee…..




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Is The Long Dollar Trade Over?

Submitted by Derrick Wulf of No Easy Trade

Is The Long Dollar Trade Over?

It seemed almost too obvious. The European Central Bank was imposing negative interest rates and devising new quantitative easing schemes to combat the growing threat of deflation; the SNB was buying foreign currencies in “unlimited quantities” to cap the value of the Franc; the Bank of Japan was madly printing Yen in a desperate frenzy to finally stir up domestic demand; and then the Bank of China responded with its own rate cuts. All this, while the Federal Reserve was quietly ending its quantitative easing policies and even hinting at forthcoming (2015) rate hikes.

The long dollar trade, and all it’s various expressions, soon became one of the most crowded trades of 2014. Investors were not only long the dollar against euro and yen, they were short gold, silver, copper, and commodities in general, even using the dollar to help justify late-cycle crude oil shorts in recent weeks. Investors were also long stocks, as all these freshly printed euro, franc, and yen would inevitably seek out “greener” pastures abroad.

But the dollar rally has started to lose momentum, and with year-end approaching it might not be surprising to see some investors take a bit of risk off their books. Many of these investors still have decent profits in their long dollar expressions, but the huge reversals in gold and silver yesterday may provide a bit of a warning to those still in the trade. Moreover, with liquidity in the financial markets a mere shadow of what it used to be, waiting until Christmas to trim positions might not be the most prudent strategy for institutional managers. This turkey is cooked, and it’s time to give thanks.

Now a few charts. First the dollar index, which looks like it’s finishing a classic wave 5 rally on waning momentum and notable RSI divergence (Chart 1). Do we really want to get greedy here?

Now Gold, which staged a 70 point reversal yesterday to pivot back above 1180 and squeeze out a few late shorts along the way (Chart 2).

And the S&P 500, which once again failed at trend resistance after becoming classically overbought on both daily and weekly timeframes (Chart 3).

Like my Mom used to always say, “profits are made and players get played when smart traders fade the most popular trade.” In the near term, it may in fact be more about positioning than macro events, and as of right now, it seems that getting on the other side of the dollar might actually be a decent way to earn a few more of them.

 




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Russian Ruble Crashes To New Record Lows – Intervention Imminent?

Despite yesterday’s big bounce back in the price of oil, this morning’s weakness across the crude complex has rekindled selling pressure on the Russian Ruble as it crashes back to yesterday’s record lows against the USD.  

 

At around 54 Ruble to the USD, yesterday saw ‘alleged’ intervention by the Russian Central Bank with a dramatic reversal back to around 50 intraday… it appears the market wants to test the Central Bank’s free-float commitment once again.

 

Yesterday saw notable Treasury selling as the Ruble was rescued/intervened, one wonders if the move higher in yields for 30Y bonds in the last few minutes signal Russian central bank intervention coming soon. [Sell TSY, Rcv USD, sell USD, buy RUB]




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After Abysmal Thanksgiving Spending, Cyber Monday Is Latest Dud, Rising Less Than Half 2013 Pace

Prepare to hear much more of the “retail spending slowed down because the economy is just too strong” excuses today, used most hilariously by the NRF on Sunday to explain the unprecedented 11% collapse in the 2014 4-day holiday weekend spend, when pundits “justify” why Cyber Monday sales were only the latest proof the US consumer – that 70% driver of US GDP – is being crushed day after day, pardon, basking in the warm glow of America’s centrally-planned golden age.

Here are the facts: Internet holiday shopping rose only 8.1% on Cyber Monday yesterday, usually the busiest day for Web shopping as people return to their desks after the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday weekend. This was a big miss to expectations, and is less than half then growth posted just last year, when online sales grew at 17.5%, according to IBM.

Enter the spin doctors:

… Cyber Monday sales growth is slowing as consumers embrace the convenience of online shopping, spreading out their purchases instead of being lured by one-day specials.

 

… The declining pace of growth reflects an earlier start to the year-end shopping season, with Amazon.com Inc. and other online retailers offering online deals a week before Black Friday, when stores traditionally began offering holiday discounts.

 

… “We’re still getting really strong growth on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but people are realizing it’s a season of shopping,” Soren Mills, chief marketing officer at Newegg Inc., an online electronics retailer. “We’re releasing new deals all the time. We refresh constantly and bring in new deals to keep the excitement there. People are turning it from a day-long occasion to a monthlong occasion.”

 

… “Consumers are definitely shopping earlier,” said Scot Wingo, ChannelAdvisor’s chief executive officer. “Thanksgiving eats into Black Friday, and Saturday and Sunday are eating into Cyber Monday.”

But nothing compares to:

NRF’s CEO Matt Shay attributed the drop to a combination of factors, including the fact that retailers moved promotions earlier this year in attempt to get people out sooner and avoid what happened last year when people didn’t finish their shopping because of bad weather. He also attributed the declines to better online offerings and an improving economy where “people don’t feel the same psychological need to rush out and get the great deal that weekend, particularly if they expected to be more deals,” he said.

Yes, consumer spending is plunging due to a stronger economy. Clearly this guy went to Princeton.

All of which is not only funny, but an outright lie as well, because as reported previously, when aggregating all the Thanksgiving spending data from Thursday to Sunday, we find that shoppers spent an average $159.55 online, down 10.2% from $177.67 last year. This took place as there was an actual decline in the percentage of Black Friday weekend shopping taking place online. So not only did Americans buy less online, they spent less online!

 

Which is why, of course, one needs spin. The problem is when people no longer buy, pardon the pun, the bullshit:

This year, many shoppers stayed home. The NRF had predicted that 140.1 million customers would visit retailers last weekend. Instead, only 133.7 million showed up. The slow start may make it harder for retailers to hit sales targets over the next month. The NRF had predicted a 4.1 percent sales gain for November and December — the best performance since 2011.

And it may still get it… if all retailers go “full Amazon” and liquidate their wares well below cost, leading to another wave of retail bankruptcies and even more evil, evil deflation.




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Reason’s Webathon 2014: Help Us Raise $200,000 by Dec. 9!

Reason’s annual Webathon
kicks off today and will run through next Tuesday, December 9.
This is the one time of the year when we go PBS on our most loyal
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donation
 in support of our award-winning
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 This year—the year The New York
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asked “Has
the Libertarian Moment Finally Arrived?
“—we’re hoping
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Your (tax-deductible!) gift will help us publish the print
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We’re your voice for
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Overruled
 
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So, “Has the Libertarian Moment Finally Arrived?” Well,
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A.M. Links: Rand Paul Is Running for Reelection, Bill Cosby Resigns from Temple University Board, Wife of ISIS Leader Arrested in Lebanon

  • Bill Cosby has
    resigned
    from Temple University’s Board of Trustees.
  • “President Barack Obama spoke forcefully on Monday about using
    his last two years in office to take on the problems of race and
    policing illustrated by the controversy in Ferguson, but—for now—he
    has offered policy solutions
    that fall short
    of what activists have demanded.”
  • President Obama is reportedly considering whether
    to open a new front
    in the air war against ISIS in order to
    create a “safe zone” for rebel forces.
  • St. Louis County Police Chief Jon Belmar claims that the St.
    Louis Rams organization has apologized for the actions of five
    players who raised their hands in a Ferguson-inspired protest
    before Sunday’s game against the Oakland Raiders. But Keven Demoff,
    the executive vice president of football operations for the Rams,
    has
    denied making any such apology
    . “I do believe that supporting
    our players’ First Amendment rights and supporting local law
    enforcement are not mutually exclusive,” Demoff told the Associated
    Press.

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Jacob Sullum on Reefer Madness and the Michael Brown Shooting

Although Darren
Wilson reportedly had the impression that Michael Brown
was on drugs the day of their deadly encounter, he did not broach
the subject during his grand jury testimony. That task fell to the
prosecutors running the proceedings, who wanted the jurors to know
that high doses of THC can cause “paranoia,” “hallucinations,” and
“psychotic episodes.” Jacob Sullum argues that the marijuana angle
helped bolster Wilson’s self-defense claim, steering the grand jury
in the direction preferred by St. Louis County Prosecuting Attorney
Robert McCulloch.

View this article.

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