CME Hikes Crude Oil Margins For Second Time In A Week

The last time the CME hiked margins across the entire crude oil space was one short week ago, on Tuesday to be specific, when the most important contract, the CL Crude Oil Future, saw its initial margin rise by a little over 4%, from $4070 to $4235.

However, as last week’s subsequent events clearly showed, the margin hike was nowhere near enough to bring some stability to the market, when the crude plunge accelerated toward the end of the week, leading to a near-record rout in the product.

Which perhaps is why moments ago the CME once again hiked both initial and maintenance margins across the board for some 151 pages worth of futures contracts, only this time the required cash for initial positions or to maintain existing spec bets for the front month contract was increased four times as much, from $4235 to $4895…

…  which means the weekly increase in crude margins is now about 20%, which also means that those specs who were in margined, money-losing positions until today, will have to pony up substantially more cash, or else the crude dump will resume and rather quickly. Unless of course, the recently most margined positions happen to be new shorts, who would now rush to cover.




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President Wants New Spending to Monitor Militarized Cops, Americans Anticipate Government Gridlock, Hong Kong Cracks Down on Protesters: P.M. Links

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Ira Stoll: Government-Backed Green Energy Goes Bust

The
recent Chapter 7 bankruptcy and liquidation filing of the Toledo,
Ohio-based solar-panel manufacturer Xunlight Corp. has attracted
barely any national attention. Maybe it’s gotten to the point—after
Solyndra, Evergreen, Abound, and Satcon—that the failure of another
government-backed alternative energy company is a dog-bites man
story. It’d be newsworthy if any of them actually ever
succeeded.

But as Ira Stoll explains, it’s worth pausing for an autopsy and
retrospective on Xunlight, because it’s a great (or terrible,
depending on how you look at it) example of how government at all
levels—state and federal—and in both parties—Republican and
Democrat —wastes taxpayer money by subsidizing politically
connected businesses.

View this article.

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The Longest Streak In Stock Market History… Is Over

For 29 days – off the Bullard lows – the S&P 500 closed above its 5-day moving average. As MKM’s Jonathan Krinsky noted last week, this is the longest streak of sustained equity momentum higher in the history of US markets (surpassing the previous record 27 days from 1928). Today (well techncially Friday’s early close) saw that streak come to an abrupt end…

 

 

 

The outcome post a reversal is mixed:

 

h/t @ReformedBroker and @JKrinskyMKM




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Trannies Trounced Most In 10 Months As Commodities & Bond Yields Bounce

Some very significant volatility intraday today. The Dow Transports lost around 2.7% today – the most since early January – as Airlines slipped (though held half of Friday's panic-buying gains). The Dow outperformed – but closed red – thanks to strength in Chevron and Exxon (adding 35 Dow points alone). All major US equity indices are red from pre-Thanksgiving's meltup exuberant close with Trannies and Small Caps worst. Momo names were hit, as was AAPL. All of this was driven, it appears, by a somewhat staggering (dead cat or not) bounce in commodity markets off overnight flush lows. Gold and silver screamed higher and oil gained 7% off its lows to close up 4.8% from Friday. Treasury yields also turned around notably intraday from down 1-2bps to closing up around 6bps at the long-end (after ISM beat). VIX briefly tested below 14 but the 330RAMP went the wrong way with VIX rising and stocks closing not off the lows.

 

Off last night's flush lows… commodities have exploded higher…

 

From Friday's close…

 

and from the initial OPEC 'no cut' leaks from the Venezuelans

 

From Friday's early close, the tumble escalated…

 

and From pre-Thanksgiving's panic buying confidence-inspiring ramp close…

 

Of course AAPL's collapse was stunning but described by some clever chaps on CNBC as "perfectly normal" and "a great buying opportunity"

 

and Momo names suffered

 

Treasury yields bounced off Bullard low levels today and popped 5-6bps on the day in light trading after ISM beat

 

Credit markets are notably decoupling from stocks..

 

Is someone starting to trade the TSY vs Equity divergence?

 

The USD lost around 0.25% today, also helping commodities – having basically traded flat for th elast month

 

 

Charts: Bloomberg




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Martin Armstrong Asks “Is It Time To Turn Off The Lights?” On America

Submitted by Martin Armstrong via Armstrong Economics blog,

We have a very serious problem with taxation. Only the United States and Japan regards its citizens as state property. Taxes are normally owed based upon the concept that you are paying your “fair share” predicated on use. But the United States views it simply owns anyone born in the United States or overseas if they had even one American parent. This is in reality slavery that no state should own its citizens as property.

Johnson Boris

The Washington Post has reported the plight of the Mayor of London Boris Johnson’s remains in a major dispute with the U.S. Internal Revenue Service. It would be very nice to see everyone come together and challenge this to the Supreme Court for those are the pro-government judges that ruled all Americans belong to the state and that paying your “fair share” has nothing to do with taxes – just hand over whatever you have.

The mayor’s dispute with the US tax-collectors was brought to light when he traveled to the United States and did a blitz of interviews with the American news media. He explained that the U.S. government was forcing him to pay the capital gains tax on the sale of his Islington home. “Can you believe it?” When asked by Rehm if he intended to pay the bill, he said that he would not. “I think it’s absolutely outrageous.”

Boris Johnson was born in the USA but returned to England with his parents at the age of 5. He has never lived in America, but that means nothing to the IRS. They are hunting everyone everywhere. They have been sending letters to people in Canada who they figured out had one American parent but have never lived in the USA. I previous wrote about a couple in Switzerland where the wife was American living there with her Swiss husband for 20 years. When their 14 year-old son was ready to open his first bank account, he was told no way because he was America. Even foreigners married to Americans are being compelled under FATCA to disclose they are married to an American and the risk of being denied the right to have a bank account. I use to have American Express cards in USA, Britain, and Japan. That way, I paid my local bills in the local currency. Today, no credit card can be issued to an American outside the USA.

Americans are being prejudiced everywhere. What is most revealing, Obamacare notes the distinction between living in America and overseas. Ex-pats are exempt from Obamacare for they are assumed to have healthcare where they are. Otherwise, they would have to buy health insurance in America that would never cover them outside the country.

light-switch

 

Congress NEVER directed that Americans pay taxes worldwide simply because they were born in the USA or had one American parent. This whole scheme was crafted by the Supreme Court who merely ruled that Congress did not exclude foreign income, so it must be included. The way this is being applied is outrageous. Americans are unable to do business outside the USA with local accounts because no bank will deal with Americans thanks to FATCA. These idiots cannot grasp that this is reversing the US economy into isolationism and is paving the road for China to take the lead. It is time to turn off the lights.




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Spot The Odd One Out

While we have focused on the decoupling between US equity markets and their high-yield credit and US Treasury yield peers, today is perhaps most notably for the widening seen in investment-grade credit markets – the most in 2 months – as oil-complex concerns squeeze liquidity across all credits.

 

 

Notably HYG is under significant pressure also (not helped by some intraday weakness in Treasury yields today)

 

Charts: Bloomberg




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Crude Crash Slams Venezuelan Bonds To Close At 5-Year Lows: 21% Yield

It is no wonder Venezuela is suffering… Venezuelan bond prices have collapsed around 51 – the lowest close in at least 5 years as yields surge to around 21% yield. The market is pricing in extremely high probability of default (around 63% over 2Y, and 80% based on 5Y CDS) which, as Bloomberg reports, is surging as “every $1 drop in oil is around $770 million of lost revenue, so their ability to pay has taken a big hit.”

 

 

As Bloomberg reports,

Venezuelan bonds fell to a five-year low as traders projected higher chances of default after OPEC’s decision to maintain oil output pushed crude lower.

 

 

“Every $1 drop in oil is around $770 million of lost revenue, so their ability to pay has taken a big hit,” Kevin Daly, a money manager at Aberdeen Asset Management, said in an e-mailed response to questions. “The market is already pricing in a high probability of default next year.”

 

Bank of America Corp. lowered its recommendation on Venezuelan bonds today to marketweight from overweight, citing the OPEC decision. At current oil prices, Venezuela will need an additional $25.6 billion to finance imports, the bank said.

 

 

“The Venezuelan government has not been very responsive, not acting fast enough to adjust, and not calming the markets with executable plans to respond to these external pressures.”

 

Venezuela can overcome any situation arising from lower oil prices and is taking measures to protect itself amid the drop, Rafael Ramirez, the nation’s foreign minister, said in an interview published in the newspaper Panorama.

 

Venezuela needs a break-even price near $85 a barrel with adjustments to pay for its dollar liabilities, Jefferies Group LLC analyst Siobhan Morden said in a research note.

*  *  * 

As long as Maduro can keep paying the military, buying their apartments and cars, all will be well… if not – coup time and social unrest.




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Obama Doesn’t Really Care About Police Militarization

Another form will keep things on the up and up!The headline for
The New York Times’ story
about the White House’s
just-released report analyzing the federal transfer of military
equipment to local law enforcement agencies reads “Obama to Toughen
Standards on Police Use of Military Gear.” The headline isn’t
wrong, exactly, but a look at the
actual report
(pdf) from the White House really indicates
throwing more paperwork at police departments for oversight and
perpetuates the idea that abuse of military equipment by police
agencies is a “training” issue, not a choice to be deliberately
aggressive.

The White House promised to study police militarization in the
wake of how various law enforcement agencies in Ferguson, Missouri,
responded to the peaceful protesters, not just the aggressive or
criminal ones. What comes out of the report is a call for better
documentation and transparency, and an easily supportable demand
that local governments must actually review and authorize
acquisition of the “controlled property” military equipment (guns
and vehicles) by law enforcement agencies.

What the report doesn’t recommend is scaling back the
programs in any notable or significant way. It appears as though
the White House is trying to have it both ways on police
militarization, calling for reforms without having to tackle the
issues surrounding whether it’s actually necessary.
From BuzzFeed
, which recently
noted
the failure of any sort recent efforts to scale back
police militarization on the federal end:

The administration is keeping its hands off the bipartisan
militarization debate, which imploded after a brief surge in
interest on Capitol Hill. Administration officials noted repeatedly
that “the vast majority” of surplus military equipment sent to
local police forces is not former combat equipment and said they
could not alter programs created by Congress.

Asked about proposed legislation to limit the availability of
military equipment to local police, proposed by Democrats and
Republicans in the House and Senate, the official said the White
House had not reviewed the bills.

“I don’t have a specific position for you,” the official
said.

“Our assumption is Congress has an intent here to support local
law enforcement with the use of this kind of equipment,” the
official said on a conference call with reporters Monday. “Our
focus is on what kind of protections are in place to make sure it’s
used properly and safely.”

That only a small percentage of stuff given to the police is
former combat equipment seems to be a big talking point for the
administration. It’s mentioned in the report as well. But the
report does also show how big that four percent is in real
numbers:

To date, approximately 460,000 pieces of controlled property are
currently in the possession of LEAs. Examples of controlled
property provided include: 92,442 small arms, 44,275 night vision
devices, 5,235 high mobility, multi-purpose wheeled vehicles
(HMMWVs), 617 mine resistant ambush protected vehicles and 616
aircraft.

This is not to say that it’s wrong for the White House to
acknowledge that Congress is responsible for scaling back or
altering the federal programs, particularly given the Obama
administration’s reputation for executive actions. But not taking
“a specific position” is actually taking a position. It should be
read that the administration supports the transfer of military
equipment to law enforcement agencies. In fact, the opening
statement of the White House report describes the reasons why
police have sought out the military equipment as “legitimate
concerns.”

What we should take away from today’s announcement is that there
will be no push to scale back these programs from the White House.
It is up to Congress.

The White House does, however, want to offer millions in federal
grants to
help supply body cameras
to police departments across the
country. That’s worth noting, too.

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Tensions Between the U.S. and Russia Are Worse Than You Realize – Remarks by Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov

Screen Shot 2014-12-01 at 12.39.13 PM“I am young, I am twenty years old; yet I know nothing of life but despair, death, fear, and fatuous superficiality cast over an abyss of sorrow. I see how peoples are set against one another, and in silence, unknowingly, foolishly, obediently, innocently slay one another.”

– Erich Maria Remarque, All Quiet on the Western Front

Despite an interest in geopolitics, I haven’t really written anything on the concerning and worsening tension between the government of the United States and the government of Russia. I intentionally wrote government twice in order to emphasize the fact that 99.9% of Americans do not have real grievances with actual Russian people, and vice versa. This is a high-level conflict between powerful “leaders” playing a game of Risk with average citizen as pawns. This is how it’s always been. As human beings, we should never lose sight of this so the mistakes we make in the future aren’t nearly as tragic as those made by our ancestors.

continue reading

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