Execution Stayed for Michael Lambrix Amid Challenges To Florida’s Heavy-Handed Death Penalty Scheme

prisonThe execution of Cary Michael Lambrix, scheduled for Feb. 11, was stayed by the Florida Supreme Court last Tuesday amid questions about the legality of executions following Hurst v. Florida, a U.S. Supreme Court decision handed down earlier this year.

In 1984, Michael Lambrix was convicted of killing Clarence Moore and Aleisha Bryant with a tire iron. Lambrix then supposedly buried the two bodies close to his trailer home. His partner was arrested soon after the event on unrelated charges and quickly informed the police of Lambrix’s brutal alleged deeds, leading them to the victims’ grave. The Lambrix case itself is controversial, though, as the jury could not initially agree on a verdict, leading to a retrial the following year. During the second trial, eight out of 12 jurors recommended the death penalty—a simple majority—sending Lambrix to death row according to Florida law.

Lambrix’s side of the story, publicized by Amnesty International, is that Moore assaulted Bryant, leading Lambrix to kill Moore in defense of both himself and Bryant.

While Lambrix awaits his postponed execution, two issues must be sorted out in Florida: who has final say over aggravating factors and death recommendations (judge or jury) and whether Hurst must be applied retroactively for those currently on death row.

It matters because the Supreme Court declared in Hurst that a system that gives judges the power to impose the death penalty, with juries simply playing an advisory role, violates the defendant’s Sixth Amendment right to trial by jury. If retroactive, this would drastically change what happens to those set to be executed in Florida.

On one hand, representatives from the state attorney general’s office worry the increase in appeals if Hurst were made retroactive would be a processing “nightmare” for Florida, which has around 400 prisoners currently awaiting execution. On the other hand, if the appeals are successful it will lead to an overall decrease in executions, and a far more careful application of the law going forward.

As if the story weren’t convoluted enough with the question of Lambrix’s guilt and the question of whether Hurst should apply retroactively, legislation is moving forward in the Florida House of Representatives that would require jurors to unanimously find one or more aggravating factors (such as criminal record or evidence that the crime was premeditated) in order to impose a death sentence, and require nine out of 12 jurors to vote in favor of using the death penalty.

As it currently stands, jurors must reach only a simple majority to recommend death—a fact that some find inconsistent with the spirit of the law as established in the court case Ring v. Arizona. That there are only two other states that allow non-unanimous juries to recommend death for a defendant shows Florida’s exceptional heavy-handedness when dealing with matters of life and death. Assuming you care about protecting the constitutional rights of defendants and ensuring that states do their due diligence before choosing to execute, this legislation is a step in the right direction.

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Saudi Arabia “Ready To Send Ground Troops To Syria”

Last month, when Saudi Arabia announced it would be heading (that’s heading, not beheading) a 34-nation “anti-terror coalition”, everyone who knows anything at all about the Mid-East and about the sectarian divide laughed hysterically. 

Why? Because Saudi Arabia is without question the world’s number one state sponsor of terror. Riyadh would vehemently deny that charge but when your state religion is Wahhabism it’s a bit difficult to explain how it is that you’re not contributing to the rise of groups like al-Qaeda and ISIS.

Fortunately for the Saudis, they’ve got all the oil, which means the world looks the other way while the government racks up an abysmal human rights record and sticks to policies that look like they walked right out of the seventh century.

Here’s an excerpt from Saudi Arabia: An ISIS That Has Made It,” by Kamel Daoud:

Black Daesh, white Daesh. The former slits throats, kills, stones, cuts off hands, destroys humanity’s common heritage and despises archaeology, women and non-Muslims. The latter is better dressed and neater but does the same things. The Islamic State; Saudi Arabia. In its struggle against terrorism, the West wages war on one, but shakes hands with the other. This is a mechanism of denial, and denial has a price: preserving the famous strategic alliance with Saudi Arabia at the risk of forgetting that the kingdom also relies on an alliance with a religious clergy that produces, legitimizes, spreads, preaches and defends Wahhabism, the ultra-puritanical form of Islam that Daesh feeds on.

And so, when the Saudis announced they were set to launch their own “war” on terror, we couldn’t help but chuckle at the sheer absurdity. “That’s right ladies and gentlemen, you no longer have anything to fear from Sunni extremists because the undisputed king of promoting Sunni extremism is on the case,” we quipped, incredulous. 

We went on to ask the following obvious question: “Is this the precursor to Saudi, Qatari, UAE, and (more) Turkish boots on the ground in Syria and Iraq, just as Iraqi Shiite politician Hanan Fatlawi predicted?

“It certainly appears so,” we added.

Well not to put too fine a point on it, but we were exactly right, because just moments ago, a Saudi military spokesman told AP the kingdom is ready to send ground troops to Syria to fight Islamic State group if coalition leaders agree.

At this juncture, it’s difficult to find the words to express the sheer absurdity of what’s going on here. It’s one thing for the US to send in SpecOps to fight groups the CIA may have one time armed, but this is Saudi Arabia preparing to send in ground troops to fight groups the country, along with Turkey, is still arming.

We’re not saying the Saudis are openly delivering weapons to ISIS in crates with Riyadh’s return address stamped in the upper left hand corner of the lid, but the Saudis and Qatar are unquestionably aiding Sunni extremist elements in Syria and some of those very same Sunni extremists are, for lack of a better word, terrorists. The Saudis might as well just meet the militants ahead of time, hand them weapons, and then agree to meet back in an hour to fight. 

If Riyadh sends in ground troops to Syria it will mean that Saudi forces will be fighting in the same country as Iranian forces and that, ladies and gentlemen, is bad news. 

We wonder if it’s a coincidence that this comes just as Assad, Russia, and Iran encircle Aleppo, cutting off the opposition from their Sunni benefactor in Turkey. As we said earlier today with regard to the peace talks in Geneva, “the urgency expressed by the US, Saudi Arabia, and Turkey shouldn’t be mistaken for some kind of benevolent regard for the lives are lost each and every day the war drags on. Rather, Washington, Riyadh, and Ankara know that if Aleppo falls, that’s it for the “moderate” opposition.”

We’ll close by simply reminding you of the question we asked in December: “Did Saudi Arabia just clear the way for an invasion of Syria?


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Liberty Links 2/4/16

Below are links to some of the more interesting and important reads I came across today, but will not be publishing on in detail.

An Idiot’s Guide to Prosecuting Corporate Fraud (The Intercept)

Clinton Emails Held Indirect References to Undercover CIA Officers (Makes you wonder, how many “diplomats” are actually CIA agents? NBC News)

Head of Google Search Retires, Artificial Intelligence Chief to Take Over (ArsTechnica)

Goldman Sachs Chief: Sanders’s Criticism is ‘Dangerous’ (Sanders is the only one who scares the banksters, The Hill)

Sanders Raised $3M in 24 Hours, His Biggest Single Day Yet (The Hill)

Tel Aviv Museum Nixes Ai Weiwei Exhibit; Israeli Artist Says Censorship at Play (Haaretz)

continue reading

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The Bond Market Is Waiting For A Further Correction In Equity Prices

Submitted by Eric Bush via Gavekal Capital blog,

The S&P 500 is currently down a little over 7% YTD and 11% of the May 2015 high. Unfortunately, all signs coming out of the bond market are signalling a further fall in equity prices.

The spread between AAA rated corporate bonds and the 10-year treasury bond has blown out to 213 basis points over the past couple weeks. This is the widest spread since September 2011, during another period of market turmoil.

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The spread between BAA rated corporate bonds and the 10-year treasury bond has widened out to 351 basis points, the widest level since July 2009. While equity prices and this bond spread moved in fairly close lockstep from 2008-2013, this relationship has been diverging since the middle of 2014.

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The widening of this spread also doesn’t bode well for a turnaround in industrial production anytime soon.

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Lastly, the spread between high yield bonds and AAA rated bonds has widened out to 519 basis points, which is the widest level since 2011. There has been a dramatic move in this spread since 2014. The spread narrowed to a 20-year low of just 60 basis points in June 2014. It has since violently widened and diverged from equity prices.

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Jose Canseco Has An Opinion On Negative Rates

You know the world is turning to shit when a retired baseball star can (relatively eloquently) explain the sheer folly of negative interest rates.

 

In a torrent of tweets, the Cuban-American "Bash Brother" started to rage after BoJ's NIRP decision…

Then questioned their sanity…

Nothing indeed…

And always interested in sensationalism, Bloomberg's Joe Weisenthal had "value" explained to him by the former baseball star…

 

Ironic that his tell-all book was called "Juiced" in an age of "Wild Times" in geopolitcs, monetary policy on "'Roids," and "How Central Bankers Got Big."


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The Great Crisis Has Officially Begun (Oil is Just the Start)

It would be a lot easier to be bullish today if the entire financial system wasn’t based on fraud and BS.

 

Every explanation we see regarding the bull market in stocks is really just a cover for the fact that Central Banks spent $14 trillion propping up the bond bubble.

 

All claims that stocks went up because of the “recovery” or because of “expansion” or whatever really translate to “stocks went up because TRILLIONS in liquidity went into the system and a lot of it ended up in stocks.”

 

Here’s the reality of things.

 

Bonds, particularly sovereign bonds, are the bedrock of the financial system. US Treasuries are considered the “risk free” rate of return. Every other asset in the world is valued based on its perceived risk relative to Treasuries.

 

However, Treasuries have become horribly mispriced because the Fed and other Central Banks have tried to corner the global sovereign bond market.

 

When sovereign bonds are mispriced, EVERYTHING is mispriced. This includes US stocks, emerging market stocks, commodities, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, etc.

 

This worked for about five to six years until the dark economic realities that Central Banks attempted to paper over began to appear.

 

In this particular instance, the economic realities concerned the fact that China, which was thought to have pulled the world out of recession in 2009, (courtesy of trillions of Dollars in credit expansion), was in fact an enormous debt Ponzi scheme dressed up as a “miracle.”

 

Indeed, you can think of China as the poster child for the Keynesian believe that you can print your way to growth. The only way China pulled off the fraud for so long was by publishing fictitious economic numbers.

 

Speaking of which, as far back as 2007, current First Vice Premiere of China, Li Keqiang, admitted to the US ambassador to China that ALL Chinese data, outside of electricity consumption, railroad cargo, and bank lending is for “reference only.”

 

However, it took until 2014 for a critical mass of investors to discover this for themselves. When they did, economically sensitive commodities such as Oil and Copper imploded.

 

Indeed, looking at the chart, one could argue that the “recovery” ended in 2011. But it wasn’t really until 2014 or so that the economic realities of NO growth (particularly in China) became obvious and both commodities collapsed.

 

 

Anyone who claims that the carnage is isolated to Energy is not paying attention. We will repeat what we said earlier: when sovereign bonds are mispriced, EVERYTHING is mispriced. This includes US stocks, emerging market stocks, commodities, corporate bonds, municipal bonds, etc.

 

Oil and Copper are just the tip of the iceberg, Globally, the financial system is 30% more leveraged than it was in 2008. And this time around Central Banks have already used up 90%+ of their ammo papering over the 2008 mess.

 

Another Crisis is brewing…

 

If you’ve yet to take action to prepare yourself and your portfolio for the next round of the Crisis, we just published a 21-page investment report titled Stock Market Crash Survival Guide.

 

In it, we outline precisely how the crash will unfold as well as which investments will perform best during a stock market crash.

 

We are giving away just 1,000 copies for FREE to the public.

 

To pick up yours, swing by:

 

http://ift.tt/1HW1LSz

 

Best Regards

 

Graham Summers

Chief Market Strategist

Phoenix Capital Research

 

 

 


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Black Lives Matter Activist Deray Mckesson Running for Baltimore Mayor

Deray Mckesson, one of the Black Lives Matter activists behind Campaign Zero, a comprehensive set of police reform policies ranging from body cameras to union contracts, for which Campaign Zero launched a separate website, Check the Police, is running to be the Democratic nominee for mayor of Baltimore.

 In an announcement made on Medium, Mckesson mostly stuck to his status as a “non-traditional candidate” and “son of Baltimore.” Mckesson was previously an educator and school administrator in Minneapolis and Baltimore.

Mckesson broadly sketched out his view of government, which should be “accountable to its people and… aggressively innovative in how it identifies and solves its problems.” Safety, wrote Mckesson, included more than policing and that transparency was a core pillar of government. Mckesson wants to make internal city school audits public, for example. He promised to release a policy platform in the coming weeks.

How closely Mckesson’s platform follows the proposals of Campaign Zero remains to be seen, but a Democratic candidate who aggressively engages the role of public unions in thwarting transparency and creating many of government’s biggest problems, from education to policing, would indeed be transformative. Even just an engagement of the role of police unions would be politically disruptive.

Mckesson’s background in public schools administration could go either way on whether he calls out the role teachers unions play in keeping bad teachers on the job, much like police unions keep bad cops on the job. Although there are more than a dozen other Democratic candidates, Mckesson is poised to expand the conversation in the race, with the potential to address issues usually ignored by mainstream candidates and introduce policy positions mainstream Democratic candidates are hesitant to take on because of entrenched party interests but that could appeal to a broad section of the electorate.

The frontrunner in the race, former mayor Sheila Dixon, says she’s never heard of Mckesson. “We all want the best for Baltimore,” she told the Baltimore Sun. “There are 84 days left. I’m staying focused.”

Another leading Democratic candidate, Nick Mosby, a councilman and husband of the state’s attorney prosecuting the officers involved in Freddie Gray’s death, previously committed to working with a bipartisan group on criminal justice and policing reforms. Mosby said he welcomed anyone into the raise but that he had a comprehensive plan for Baltimore. While it includes a plank that promises to “improve police transparency, require true community policing, combat addiction, and get body-worn cameras on officers within 100 days of taking office.” His platform doesn’t mention the role of union contracts in offering expansive job protections to officers like the one his wife is now prosecuting. And of course it doesn’t mention teachers unions or, for that matter, even charter schools.

The Sun talked to politics radio host Sean Yoes explained what he thought would be one of Mckesson’s biggest hurdles in the race, older African-American women. “If the electorate consisted of celebrities who were politically conscious, then maybe he would have a chance,” he said. “I suspect the vast majority of the most prolific voting bloc in Baltimore City do not know who he is. That’s going to be problematic for him.”

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Why One Hedge Fund Thinks Saudi Arabia’s Three Decade Old Currency Peg Will Fall In 2016

Submitted by Dromeus Capital

Tampering with free markets is rarely successful, including in foreign currency exchanges—and The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia may be the next nation to discover the limits of sovereign power. The oilexporting monarchy is burning up reserves in an expensive effort freeze a dated, 31-year-old currency peg of 3.75 Saudi riyals to the strengthening U.S. dollar.

But there has been an epic retreat of crude oil prices since June 2014, and yet the International Energy recently predicted that in 2016, “unless something changes, the oil market could drown in over-supply.” The ghost of OPEC-driven artificial price-hikes past is haunting present-day markets—businesses and consumers adapted with efficient use of oil, or alternatives, and producers globally drilled steadily. And freed of sanctions, Iran is ramping up production.

Moreover, the U.S. dollar is strong, up more than 25% from 2011 lows against a mixed-basket of currencies, and the U.S. Federal Reserve is the only major central bank now raising rates, rather than cutting or deploying quantitative easing. A more-muscular greenbank would increase pressures for even lower oil prices.

Unfortunately for Saudi leadership, the Kingdom is an economic one-trick pony, and only knows oil. The Saudi strategy to flood markets with low-cost oil and regain market share—and kneecap the U.S. oil shale industry—has cost the monarchy dearly, with the Saudi national deficit ballooning to more than 15% of GDP, justifiably regarded as a banana-republic scale red-ink gusher. Despite vast wealth, Saudi Arabia never developed a real economy, only a petro-fare state.

Though Saudi Arabia’s vaunted FX reserves provide an ample buffer for now, they have been shrinking swiftly—down by nearly one-sixth since August—even as oil seeks a bottom. Unless the Saudis take corrective steps, the outlook of cheap oil this year will slice Saudi FX reserves by about $18 billion monthly, perhaps more.

Given their monochromatic economy, the Saudi have two corrective choices:

  • Sustained severe domestic budget austerity, delivered to a population now bred on subsidies and handouts, and still mindful of “Arab Spring.”
  • Or, let the Saudi riyal float

A macro-prudential policy for most oil-exporting countries, including Saudi Arabia, is to let markets work and let currencies float, or perhaps adjust daily within a moving band, Sino-style. A cheaper Saudi currency would provide domestic stimulus, as more riyals would be gathered for oil sold, riyals which could then be spent in the Kingdom, alleviating stresses.

More than that, an artificial Saudi riyal-U.S. dollar currency peg essentially transfers to the U.S. Federal Reserve Board monetary policy-making that should be made by the Saudi Arabian Monetary Authority, their central bank.

The Saudi currency, by being pegged to the greenback and the much-larger U.S. economy, results in Saudi interest rates that mechanically mirror Fed decisions. As the U.S. central bank tightens, a monetary noose tightens on the Saudi economy, just when an easing bias is needed. One might ponder why the Saudis not only want to export oil, but also their monetary policy-making to the U.S. To be sure, the Kingdom has launched a few belated austerity measures, such as cutting always-unwise subsidies on fuel, water and electricity. But to date the monarchy primarily has opted go into debt in global capital markets, rather than to remove the corrosive peg.

Not surprisingly, speculators (like hunters) sense wounded prey, and already bets are being laid on a riyal devaluation. Although it is possible Saudi Arabia can afford to maintain its oil regime and U.S. dollar peg, this will come will escalating costs, financial and political, and one suspects the Saudi citizenry is not big on sacrifices. The Saudi safeguarding of FX reserves, without cutting the riyal-greenback cord, will require unrelenting austerity measures.

It is not a surprise that financial markets are leaning towards a cut of the riyal-U.S. dollar peg, as indicated by the “12-month forwards,” which indicate a pending devaluation.

To date, Saudi leadership has indicated it will defend the peg. Others have pointed out that as an importing nation, Saudi Arabia would have pay more for many goods and services, also a negative. Still, policy options for the Kingdom are very limited and the usefulness of the currency peg has faded, today more a relic than the sensible monetary-policy tool of an advanced sovereign nation. The odds, and good policy, favor the Saudi de-pegging of the riyal-greenback in 2016.

Lastly, it should be noted that Mideast central bankers operate within increasingly hostile domestic and geopolitical environments. Though beyond the scope of this editorial, the Saudis are evidently militarily enmeshed in Yemen and to some extent Syria, and are seen as conducting a wide-ranging haphazard proxy war against historic rival Iran, replete with aerial and naval blockades. Increased Saudi war and security preparations will, of course, boost spending in the already red-ink drenched Saudi national budget—and hike the pressure to de-peg the riyal.


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The Real Reason For Oil’s Crazy Volatility This Week

The volatility in crude oil trading has reached the highest levels since Lehman's systemic crisis in 2008. Intraday swings of 5-10% are now de rigeur with OPEC and geopolitical headlines jockeying for narrative amid collapsing fundamentals.. but there is another, much bigger driver of this sudden chaos. As Reuters reports, the sudden liquidation of a $600 million triple-levered fund bet on falling prices wreaked havoc through the entire crude complex.

Intrday volatility in oil has been incredible to say the least…

 

 

But this week's epic rips – in the face of dire data – was just "odd"…

 

Plenty of narratives were assigned but none made any sense. So what really happened? As Reuters reports,

Unknown investors in the VelocityShares 3x Inverse Crude Oil Exchange Traded Note (ETN) – which offers the ability to make a bearish bet on prices magnified threefold, with gut-churning ups and downs – bailed out early this week after jumping into the fund in January, ETN data show.

 

Some 1.8 million shares worth more than $602 million were redeemed on Tuesday, the largest outflow from the ETN in history, according to data from FactSet Research.

 

 

The selloff suggests that at least some big investors are betting that the worst of an 18-month oil market rout is over after U.S. prices fell to $26 a barrel last month for the first time since 2003. Trading activity has also jumped to the highest levels on record.

The DWTI note inversely tracks the S&P GSCI Crude Oil Index ER, which follows movements in the oil market. And because it offers investors three times the exposure, the impact on the underlying futures is magnified – as is the volatility in the ETN, whose price more than doubled in the first three weeks of January before halving again as oil futures rebounded.

The net asset value of the fund – one of a handful of exchange funds that allows investors to trade oil without the complexity of a futures exchange – fell from close to $1 billion to $417 million on Tuesday and to $322 million on Wednesday, according VelocityShares' website.

 

As a result, the mass exodus likely forced the ETN's issuer, Credit Suisse, to quickly buy back short positions as investors redeemed shares.

 

VelocityShares, a unit of Janus Capital Group, was unable to comment on the trading activity.

 

To unwind alone may have amounted to upwards of 40,000 futures contracts on Tuesday, according to estimates by analysts.

 

There is a day's lag between when redemptions and creations are ordered and when they show up in share figures, according to Nadig, meaning that Tuesday's flows were ordered on Monday, when oil reversed a three-day rally to close $2 a barrel lower.

On Wednesday, oil prices surged more than 8 percent to $32.28 a barrel, despite a seemingly bearish report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showing nationwide crude inventories rose by 7.8 million barrels last week.

Volume in the March West Texas Intermediate futures contract surged on Wednesday to more than 777,000 lots traded, its second highest volume on record, according to data via ThomsonReuters' Eikon. DWTI volume was also unusually heavy on Wednesday, with more than 1.9 million shares traded.

So that explains the sudden squeeze carnage yesterday…

And why today's follow-through has failed as that unwind pressure disappears as DWTI's NAV disappears.

 


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