One Culprit in Rand Paul’s Demise: A Unified GOP Congress

Smiling all the way to your bank account. ||| ABC NewsDo you remember those big fights back in late October over just waving away the debt ceiling until March 2017, getting rid of the sequestration cuts and goosing federal spending by $80 billion? Remember how Republicans dug in their heels against free-spending Democrats, dispatching budget-hawk supreme Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) to all the Sunday shows to make the principled case for limiting the size and scope of government and keeping crony-capitalist excrescences like the Export-Import Bank safely dead?

Of course you don’t remember any of that, because Congress is not divided, Republicans run everything, and as a direct result fiscal conservatism in Washington is once again on the wane. The core issues that first drove the Tea Party, fueled Rand Paul’s insurgent 2010 campaign in Kentucky, and kept him reliably in the headlines during the debt ceiling/sequestration squabbles from 2011-2013, are now no longer on the front-burner in the Republican Party or in the political media. Paul tried to mount a filibuster against the noxious two-year budget deal in late October, but it quickly fizzled. The debt and deficit and nonstop budgetary dysfunction just haven’t been a real part of this presidential campaign.

There will be many post-mortems written about Rand Paul 2016, here as elsewhere, and it is always true that the ultimate responsibility lies with the candidate himself. But it’s worth pointing out that the political context in which he operated shifted once the GOP took control of Congress and replaced the noisy conflict of divided government with the responsibility-avoidance of backdoor budget deals and last-minute omnibuses. And unlike the other two Tea Party senators in the race, Paul failed to locate a popular counter-narrative in a universe dominated by Donald Trump.

We will see a lot of talk in the coming days that Paul’s demise means that his libertarianish issues are dead. While his failure to launch is certainly a key data point, it does not tell the whole story. Consider the top issues for Iowa Republican voters, according to entrance polls conducted by Edison Research:

Government spending: 32%

Economy/jobs: 27%

Terrorism: 25%

Immigration: 13%

Think of how much more we’ve been talking this election cycle about immigration instead of government spending. At a time when Republican skullduggery has exacerbated an already terrible long-term debt/deficit situation, the fact remains that many voters still care deeply about this, even if official Republican Washington and the 2016 presidential field largely does not. That promises to make an already volatile campaign even more unpredictable.

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The Real Estate Bubble Is Blown Once Again in the Exact Same Form & Fashion – Watch It Pop!

In January I penned “My Predictions of Real Estate Corrections following Market Corrections Have Now Officially Come To Pass, 8 Days or So Tardy“. A couple of weeks later, the verdict is in even more evident, yet many fail to see the forest for the trees.

This is downtown Brooklyn yesterday…

20160202 171444

That’s right, thee inventory dense hi-rise buildings going up on the corner of each adjacent block. Of course downtown Brooklyn can absorb an extra 350 units or so per two block area with rates on the way up and banks ready to tighten credit! Here’s some more facts for ya…

12642782 10153906619627943 4483814922703818240 n

Past is prologue. This is my documentary done with the the Dutch TV channel VPRO 6 years ago detailing that same 5 block radius pictured above…

This is downtown Miami last month…

20151115 142011

Those fact thingies…

12642782 10153906619627943 4483814922703818240 nmieami

We are building real estate closing systems into Veritaseum, but need real estate firms who are interested in assisting the buildout. If any of you guys believe numbers (and history) aren’t lying (see above), reach out to me at reggie AT veritaseum.com and let’s give you the tools you need to get ahead of your competition, and the obvious drop that anyone that counts can see coming.

 

Inman Presentation.pptx 1

Inman Presentation.pptx


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Why We Won’t Have A “Lehman Moment” In The 2016 Crash

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

What the central banks cannot do is create productive places to invest the credit they've generated in such excess, or force qualified borrowers to swallow more unproductive debt.

One way to lose a war is to focus on preparing to fight the last war. Preparing to fight the last war is a characteristic of losing generals, militaries and nations. The same is true of finance and economies.

General Grant's difficulties in breaking the trench warfare around Petersburg, VA in the last year of the American Civil War (1864 to early 1865) telegraphed the future of trench warfare to astute observers. Few took heed of the lessons of the "first modern war," and many of the same strategies of 1864 (digging a tunnel under enemy lines and filling the tunnel with explosives to blow a hole through their defenses, for example) were repeated in the Great War of 1914-1918 fifty years later.

When a weapon system capable of breaking the stalemate emerged–the tank–its potential for massed attack escaped planners on both sides, and the new weapon was squandered in piecemeal assaults.

"The last war" in 2008-09 was a battle to save heavily leveraged centralized financial institutions from default and liquidation–commercial and investment banks, insurance companies, etc. The concentration of capital, leverage and risk in these behemoths rendered the entire system vulnerable to their collapse (or so we were told).

Saving imploding private-sector banks was no problem for central banks that could create $1 trillion in new money with the push of a button and offer essentially unlimited lines of credit to banks facing a liquidity crunch.

But the current financial meltdown is not like the last war. Central banks are ready to extend unlimited credit again to private-sector financial institutions, but this time around, the problem won't be a lack of liquidity.

By refusing to allow a house-cleaning of risk, leverage and mal-investment, central planners have simply pushed the risk into systems they don't control: foreign-exchange (FX) currency markets, shadow banking and the economy that depends not just on available credit but the willingness of qualified borrowers to take on the risks and costs of more debt.

Central banks have created abundant credit and liquidity, but no productive places to invest that ocean of nearly free money Creating abundant credit works to spur growth when growth has been restrained by a lack of credit.

But when credit has been abundant for decades, what's scarce isn't credit–it's productive investments that are scarce. Central banks are powerless to create productive uses for the credit they create.

The inevitable consequence of this failed strategic error is defeat. Central banks issued trillions of dollars, yuan, euros and yen in new credit to stave off defeat in the last war (the Global Financial Meltdown of 2008-09), but the problem wasn't a lack of credit. Now, seven years into the strategy of flooding the global economy with credit, the problem is a scarcity of productive uses for all that money sloshing around the global economy.

There won't be a "Lehman Moment" in the 2016 meltdown, because central banks can prop up or "save" any new Lehman with a few keystrokes. What the central banks cannot do is create productive places to invest the credit they've generated in such excess, or force qualified borrowers to swallow more unproductive debt.

The global economy is choking not just on an excess of debt, it's also choking on the consequences of an unprecedented mal-investment of the credit central banks have issued in such over-abundance.

Issuing more credit will only make the 2016 crash worse. Trying to stop the current crash with more credit and lower interest rates is like sending the cavalry on suicide charges against entrenched machine guns, artillery and tanks. The coming financial slaughter will be as senseless, wasteful and ineffective as any suicide attack in the Great War.


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Meet the world leader who stole his citizens’ gold–

Even before his coronation in 1626, King Charles I of England was almost bankrupt.

His predecessors King James and Queen Elizabeth had run the royal treasury down to almost nothing.

Costly war and military folly had taken its toll. The crown had simply wasted far too much money, and brought in too little.

To make matters worse, King Charles was constantly at odds with parliament.

The English government was completely dysfunctional, with constant bickering, personal attacks, and very little sound decision-making.

Parliament refused to pass the taxes that Charles needed to make ends meet. But at the same time, the King was legally unable to levy his own taxes without parliamentary approval.

So, faced with financial desperation, he began to look for alternative ways to raise revenue.

One way was relying on practically ancient, obscure laws to penalize his subjects.

The Distraint of Knighthood, for example, was based on an act from 1278, roughly three and a half centuries before Charles’ coronation.

The Act gave him the legal authority to fine all men with a minimum level of income who did not present themselves in person at his coronation.

Charles also commandeered vast amounts of land, restoring the boundaries of the royal forests to where they had been during the time of King Edward I in the 13th century.

He then fined anyone who encroached on the land, and resold much of it to industries that were supportive of his reign.

King Charles even resorted to begging; in July 1626, he requested that his subjects “lovingly, freely, and voluntarily” give him money.

When that didn’t work, the King levied a Forced Loan, effectively confiscating people’s funds under the guise of ‘borrowing’ it.

He raised about £250,000, the equivalent of about $7.5 billion today.

Emboldened by his success, Charles eventually seized assets directly, including all the gold on deposit being held at the Royal Mint– money that belonged to the merchants and goldsmiths of England.

At one point Charles even forced the East India Company to ‘loan’ him their pepper and spice inventory. He subsequently sold the products at a steep loss.

If any of this sounds familiar, it should.

Today there is no shortage of nations facing fiscal desperation. Most of Europe. Japan. The United States.

In the Land of the Free, the government has spent years… decades… engaged in the most wasteful folly, from multi-trillion dollar wars to a multi-billion dollar website.

US debt just hit $19 trillion a few days ago. And it’s only going higher.

We can already see the government’s financial desperation.

Over the years, the government has effectively levied a ‘forced loan’ totaling more than $2.6 trillion on the Social Security Trust Fund, whose ultimate beneficiaries are the taxpayers of the United States.

Bottom line, they’re ‘borrowing’ YOUR money.

Last year the government stole more from Americans through ‘Civil Asset Forfeiture’ than all the thieves in the United States combined.

In December, the US government confiscated $19.3 billion from the Federal Reserve, which, by the way, was already very thinly capitalized.

Even if you want to believe the propaganda, it’s clear that these are not the actions of a healthy, solvent government that embraces liberty.

In fact, the government published over 80,000 pages of laws, bills, regulations, and executive orders last year. Just this morning they published another 308 pages.

It’s impossible for anyone to keep up with all of these rules. And yet each can carry civil and criminal penalties, including a fine now for not having health insurance.

As Mark Twain used to say, history may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes.

Financially insolvent governments of major superpowers do not simply go gentle into that good night.

They don’t suddenly turn over a new leaf and start embracing economic freedom.

Instead, they get worse. More desperate. More destructive.

Should we honestly believe that they can continue racking up more debt than has ever existed in the history of the world without any consequences?

This is madness. At some point, fiscal reality always catches up. Maybe not at $19 trillion. Maybe not even at $20 trillion.

Maybe it takes 3 months. Or 3 years. But somewhere out there is a straw that can break the camel’s back. And that has serious consequences.

Never forget that if something is predictable, then it’s also preventable.

And facing such obvious trends, it makes all the sense in the world to take some simple, rational steps to put together your own Plan B.

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Meet the world leader who stole his citizens’ gold–

Even before his coronation in 1626, King Charles I of England was almost bankrupt.

His predecessors King James and Queen Elizabeth had run the royal treasury down to almost nothing.

Costly war and military folly had taken its toll. The crown had simply wasted far too much money, and brought in too little.

To make matters worse, King Charles was constantly at odds with parliament.

The English government was completely dysfunctional, with constant bickering, personal attacks, and very little sound decision-making.

Parliament refused to pass the taxes that Charles needed to make ends meet. But at the same time, the King was legally unable to levy his own taxes without parliamentary approval.

So, faced with financial desperation, he began to look for alternative ways to raise revenue.

One way was relying on practically ancient, obscure laws to penalize his subjects.

The Distraint of Knighthood, for example, was based on an act from 1278, roughly three and a half centuries before Charles’ coronation.

The Act gave him the legal authority to fine all men with a minimum level of income who did not present themselves in person at his coronation.

Charles also commandeered vast amounts of land, restoring the boundaries of the royal forests to where they had been during the time of King Edward I in the 13th century.

He then fined anyone who encroached on the land, and resold much of it to industries that were supportive of his reign.

King Charles even resorted to begging; in July 1626, he requested that his subjects “lovingly, freely, and voluntarily” give him money.

When that didn’t work, the King levied a Forced Loan, effectively confiscating people’s funds under the guise of ‘borrowing’ it.

He raised about £250,000, the equivalent of about $7.5 billion today.

Emboldened by his success, Charles eventually seized assets directly, including all the gold on deposit being held at the Royal Mint– money that belonged to the merchants and goldsmiths of England.

At one point Charles even forced the East India Company to ‘loan’ him their pepper and spice inventory. He subsequently sold the products at a steep loss.

If any of this sounds familiar, it should.

Today there is no shortage of nations facing fiscal desperation. Most of Europe. Japan. The United States.

In the Land of the Free, the government has spent years… decades… engaged in the most wasteful folly, from multi-trillion dollar wars to a multi-billion dollar website.

US debt just hit $19 trillion a few days ago. And it’s only going higher.

We can already see the government’s financial desperation.

Over the years, the government has effectively levied a ‘forced loan’ totaling more than $2.6 trillion on the Social Security Trust Fund, whose ultimate beneficiaries are the taxpayers of the United States.

Bottom line, they’re ‘borrowing’ YOUR money.

Last year the government stole more from Americans through ‘Civil Asset Forfeiture’ than all the thieves in the United States combined.

In December, the US government confiscated $19.3 billion from the Federal Reserve, which, by the way, was already very thinly capitalized.

Even if you want to believe the propaganda, it’s clear that these are not the actions of a healthy, solvent government that embraces liberty.

In fact, the government published over 80,000 pages of laws, bills, regulations, and executive orders last year. Just this morning they published another 308 pages.

It’s impossible for anyone to keep up with all of these rules. And yet each can carry civil and criminal penalties, including a fine now for not having health insurance.

As Mark Twain used to say, history may not repeat, but it certainly rhymes.

Financially insolvent governments of major superpowers do not simply go gentle into that good night.

They don’t suddenly turn over a new leaf and start embracing economic freedom.

Instead, they get worse. More desperate. More destructive.

Should we honestly believe that they can continue racking up more debt than has ever existed in the history of the world without any consequences?

This is madness. At some point, fiscal reality always catches up. Maybe not at $19 trillion. Maybe not even at $20 trillion.

Maybe it takes 3 months. Or 3 years. But somewhere out there is a straw that can break the camel’s back. And that has serious consequences.

Never forget that if something is predictable, then it’s also preventable.

And facing such obvious trends, it makes all the sense in the world to take some simple, rational steps to put together your own Plan B.

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Rand Paul Suspends Presidential Campaign

Kentucky Senator Rand Paul has suspendedSo long, sweet-ish prince. his campaign for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination.

In a statement released this morning, Paul wrote:

It’s been an incredible honor to run a principled campaign for the White House. Today, I will end where I began, ready and willing to fight for the cause of Liberty.

Across the country thousands upon thousands of young people flocked to our message of limited government, privacy, criminal justice reform and a reasonable foreign policy. Brushfires of Liberty were ignited, and those will carry on, as will I.  

Although, today I will suspend my campaign for President, the fight is far from over. I will continue to carry the torch for Liberty in the United States Senate and I look forward to earning the privilege to represent the people of Kentucky for another term.

The libertarian-ish lawmaker was unable to capture the enthusiasm generated by his father Ron Paul’s two previous presidential bids, and his fifth place finish in Iowa likely sealed his fate. Paul often seemed to be deliberately pivoting toward the more conservative wing of the Republican party, which did him no service in the polls and likely alienated the libertarian diehards he hoped would serve as his base.

But in the most recent GOP debate, he appeared relaxed and confident in letting his liberty-loving freak flag fly, forcefully criticizing bulk data collection by the NSA, standing up for the Fourth Amendment, and delivering possibly the most eloquent case for criminal justice reform any candidate of either major party has yet articulated at a debate.  

You can catch up on Reason‘s coverage on Rand Paul here and watch a recent Reason TV interview with the senator below.

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Rand Paul Suspends Republican Presidential Campaign, CNN Reports

Senator Rand Paul, R-Ky., is suspending his campaign to be the Republican Presidential nominee after coming in 5th place in February 1st Iowa caucuses, CNN reports.

 

 

 

So who is next?

 

It appears the “money” was right…

 

No news from the actual campaign itself yet… and given that he tweet this 18 hours ago, we wonder what changed… Fight On?


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Coffee Combats Liver Cirrhosis, Obama Plans Mosque Visit, Record Number of Exonerations in 2015: A.M. Links

  • Last year saw a record number of criminal exonerations in America, 149, with the average time of wrongful imprisonment at 14 years. Five had been sentenced to the death penalty. 
  • President Obama makes his first visit to a U.S. mosque with a trip to the Islamic Society of Baltimore Wednesday. 
  • The District of Columbia has approved a bill that would pay “at risk” youth not to commit crimes. 
  • A former Yahoo editorial director is suing the (majority male and overwhelmingly male-led) company for gender discrimination against men, claiming that female bosses at Yahoo “intentionally hired and promoted women because of their gender, while terminating, demoting or laying off male employees because of their gender.” 
  • An NYPD officer was arrested for running a prostitution business in New York and New Jersey and charged under the federal Mann Act for “transporting women in interstate commerce to engage in prostitution.” 
  • After initially suing vegan-condiment line Just Mayo over calling an egg-free product mayonnaise, Hellman’s mayo will now introduce its own egg-less, mayo-like condiment. 
  • A meta-analysis of nine studies covering nearly half a million people has found that higher coffee consumption is linked to much lower chances of liver cirrhosis. 

Follow us on Facebook and Twitter, and don’t forget to sign up for Reason’s daily updates for more content.

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Futures Jump After Bill Dudley Hints At Fed Relent, Warns Of “Significant Consequences” From Strong Dollar

With the market now predicting precisely zero rate hikes for the rest of 2016…

… the Fed will have to take a machete to its next dot plot when it will have to admit it was dead wrong about the state of the US economy.

And while until now most Fed speakers have sounded consistently hawkish and steadfast in their views of 4 rate hikes for the rest of the year – with the exception of a more downbeat Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer eariler in the week – moments ago in an interview with Market News, NY Fed president Bill Dudley gave the first official admission of a “Fed relent”, aka policy error, when  he made it clear “he and his fellow Fed policymakers will have to discern at their March Federal Open Market Committee meeting whether or not the plunge in stock prices and other adverse market developments cloud prospects for U.S. economic growth, employment and inflation.”

From Market News:

Top Federal Reserve policymakers are leaving little doubt the financial turbulence and souring of the global economy could have significant implications for U.S. monetary policy, but they are loathe to draw too many conclusions about the appropriate path of interest rates at this juncture.

 

One thing is for certain: The tightening of financial conditions that has taken place since the Fed began raising short-term rates in mid-December is a matter of considerable concern to the Fed, New York Federal Reserve Bank President William Dudley said in an exclusive interview with MNI Tuesday.

But… it was supposed to signal the US economy is “strong enough” to sustain a lift off and decouple from the rest of the world which is scrambling to cut rates. Guess not.

As MNI adds, “a weakening of the global economy accompanied by further appreciation in an already strong dollar could also have “significant consequences” for the U.S. economy, Dudley told MNI.”

Consequences like halting rate hikes altogether? Or outright cutting them? Here are the key quotes from the interview:

“I can give you my own interpretation,” the committee’s vice chairman replied. “I read that as saying we’re acknowledging that things have happened in financial markets and in the flow of the economic data that may be in the process of altering the outlook for growth and the risk to the outlook for growth going forward.

 

“But it’s a little soon to draw any firm conclusions from what we’ve seen,” he cautioned.

 

The punchline: Dudley left no doubt, however, that the deterioration of financial conditions amidst intensified economic uncertainty have registered in the minds of Fed policymakers and that there could be significant policy implications.

 

“One thing I think we can say with more confidence is that financial conditions are considerably tighter than they were at the time of the December meeting,” he said.

 

“So if those financial conditions were to remain in place by the time we get to the March meeting, we would have to take that into consideration in terms of that monetary policy decision,” he added.

Kiss decoupling goodbye:

Nonfarm payrolls have shown strong growth, and there have been other indications that domestic economic fundamentals remain sound, despite the Commerce Department’s estimate that growth of the gross domestic product decelerated to 0.7% in the fourth quarter.

 

But Dudley suggested the U.S. economic outlook could be clouded by storms from overseas.

 

“There has been a very big change in terms of trade for many countries over the last year or two,” Dudley said. “It’s putting a lot of strain on their economies.”

And, by implication, that of the US as well.

So there you have it. The immediate result: a spike in ES as the market cheers the first strong suggestion by the Fed that it did a mistake and will have to change its entire strategy.


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