Head Of Deutsche Bank “Integrity Committee” Fired Due To “Overzealousness”

Perhaps it is merely a coincidence but just weeks after Deutsche Bank became the first bank to admit to rigging the gold market (and agreeing to rat out fellow manipulators) yesterday afternoon the head of Deutsche Bank’s “integrity committee” announced he would resign two years before his time, which is a polite way of saying he was fired.

As the FT reports, Georg Thoma has been fired from Deutsche Bank’s supervisory board two years before his contract ends “after coming under fire from other board members in a battle over how to deal with the German bank’s past scandals.”

Thoma, a veteran Shearman and Sterling lawyer, was brought on to the board by chairman Paul Achleitner in 2013 and headed the integrity committee, whose remit includes overseeing the bank’s efforts to comply with legal and regulatory requirements. Alas, he failed as the bank’s record surge in litigation charges in recent years has amply demonstrated.

According to the FT, “Thoma’s approach left him at odds with some colleagues, and on Sunday, Alfred Herling, Deutsche’s vice-chairman, took the unusual step of publicly criticising his actions in Germany’s Frankfurter Allgemeine Sonntagszeitung. Mr Herling accused Mr Thoma of “overzealousness”, saying that he “goes too far when he demands ever wider investigations and more and more lawyers come marching up”, and adding that the costs were “no longer proportionate”.

As Bloomberg adds, the remarks divided observers, with Dieter Hein, an analyst at Fairesearch-Alphavalue, saying Thoma was probably just doing his job, while Michael Seufert, an analyst at Norddeutsche Landesbank, said the question of going too far in probing wrongdoing is legitimate.

In other words, the vice-chairman goes after an internal scapegoat, the person who is tasked with fixing what is clearly a broken organization (just check its stock price) because the bank is unable to stop rigging every market it participates in.

As a reminder, Deutsche Bank’s costs and provisions for fines and lawsuits have amounted to $14.3 billion since 2012 and have substantially cut into the company’s reserves at a time when regulators order banks to hold more capital, resulting in the company’s stock price recently hitting lows not seen since the financial crisis. On Thursday, DB said that it expects further “material” legal costs this year when reporting quarterly earnings

DB at least had some kind parting words: Achleitner said Thoma had given Deutsche “outstanding service” during his time on the board. “He has implemented processes of great importance and benefit to the bank. The supervisory board is determined to continue its work of investigating possible misconduct and to draw lessons for the future,” he said.

And yet the main lesson, namely that not to fire the person who is meant to fix a broken organization, was somehow missed.

Meanwhile, Henning Kagermann, the former head of German software group SAP who is also a board member at Deutsche, told the newspaper that “for all the diligence that we have exercised, it is important for us that Deutsche Bank finally . . . devotes all its energy to looking to the future”.

Yes please, look at the future, and ignore DB’s past which, among other unexplained incidents, includes the suicide of former senior executive William Broeksmit, who was found dead after hanging himself at his London home, as well as the suicide of the bank’s associate general counsel, 41 year old Calogero “Charlie” Gambino, who was found on the morning of Oct. 20, having also hung himself by the neck from a stairway banister.

One wonders if any of those deaths had something to do with what has emerged to be a culture of unprecedented corruption and, recently, outright crime.

Deutsche said in a statement that Mr Thoma would resign immediately from his role as chairman of the integrity committee and leave the supervisory board after a one-month notice period. The bank has begun the search for a permanent successor. We are confident a former Goldman Sachs employee will be delighted to fill Thoma’s shoes.

The shocking termination comes comes just three weeks before Deutsche’s annual shareholder meeting on May 19, at which the bank’s supervisory board is likely to come under scrutiny, and even more dirty laundery may be set to emerge, especially since as the FT adds, “one small shareholder has requested a special audit of whether members of Deutsche’s supervisory board or management board breached their obligations in how they dealt with some of the bank’s legal entanglements.

The motion requests that the audit ascertain whether there were management failings in relation to a number of investigations, including the Libor scandal. Among other things, it requests an investigation into whether Deutsche had to pay heavier fines because members of its management or supervisory board obstructed, misled, or failed to co-operate sufficiently with authorities.

Considering the tsunami of legal settlements unveiled by Deutsche Bank in recent months – not to mention its shocking eagerness to put its gold manipulation history quickly in the past – we are confident the motion will be promptly denied.

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No Witnesses Coming Forward in Florida Police Shooting

Police officers in Fort Pierce, Florida, shot and killed 21-year-old Demarcus Semer at the end of a foot chase that started with an unspecified traffic violation, the Orlando Sun-Sentinel reports.

Semer was unarmed and had no drugs on him, according to police, who say they are waiting for a warrant to search Semer’s car. The Fort Pierce police department says it handed the investigation into the weekend shooting over to the St. Lucie County Sheriff’s Office so that it would be impartial.

According to the sheriff’s office, at least a dozen people said they witnessed the shooting but none has come forward to offer details to the sheriff’s office. “We need our community’s help,” the county sheriff said. “We aren’t interested in rumors or gossip; we are looking to find the truth.” Some of the people who claim they witnessed the shooting have talked to local news reporters, saying Semer had his hands up when he was shot.

According to police, Semer refused to pull over until a second cop arrived at the scene. Police claim Semer clipped one officer and dragged another in his car window. The identity of the officers, who were interviewed by Wednesday, has not yet been revealed.

Semer worked as a bank teller and had no criminal record. he was a quarterback at the local high school in 2012 and 2013.

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Goldman Sachs Stopped Out Of “Short Gold” Recommendation

With the Yen and Yuan surging, it appears money is greatly rotating out of US dollars and into an 'alternative' currency as Gold soars over $1290.

 

As Gold is bid after the BoJ Shock…

 

More problematically for Goldman Sachs' Jeff Currie is his "Short Gold" recommendation just got stopped out

 

Goldman went short gold on 2/15 at around $1205…

We also maintain our bearish view on gold that has rallied along with the other commodities. Our short gold recommendation (which we opened with a 17% upside, in line with our $1000/toz 12-m forecast) is currently at a c.5% loss, with a stop loss at 7%.

 

This gold rally was driven by a lack of conviction in divergence in US growth as a weak US dollar has been highly correlated with a higher gold price.

 

We believe this realignment view of weak global growth is not supported by the US data, which will likely reinforce higher US yields, a stronger US dollar and the return of divergence, particularly should strong US consumer growth dissolve market fears regarding US growth. This in turn will likely put downward pressure on gold prices towards our near-term target of $1100/toz

That just ended… as the 7% loss stopped them out…

 

Leaving Goldman clients pensive…

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Atlanta Fed Unveils First Q2 GDP Forecast, Sees 1.8% Growth, 0.5% Below Wall Street Consensus

After being just fractionally above the official Q1 GDP print which yesterday came in at 0.5%, moments ago the Atlanta Fed unveiled its first Q2 GDP estimate which it sees at 1.8%, roughly 0.5% below the sellside average estimate of 2.3%, and just in line with the lowest forecast.

From the Fed:

Latest forecast: 1.8 percent — April 29, 2016

 

The first GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2016 is 1.8 percent on April 29. The final model nowcast for first-quarter real GDP growth was 0.6 percent, 0.1 percentage points above the advance estimate of 0.5 percent released on Thursday by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

 

The next GDPNow update is Monday, May 2. Please see the “Release Dates” tab below for a full list of upcoming releases.

 

Considering the ongoing retrenchment among US consumer spending, which once again missed expectations and pushed the savings rate to match 3 year highs, we expect this number to be once again revised lower in the coming weeks.

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Gold “Chart of The Decade” – Maths Suggest $10,000 Per Ounce Says Rickards

Gold “Chart of The Decade” – Maths Suggest $10,000 Per Ounce Says Rickards

James Rickards, economic and monetary expert, joined Bloomberg’s Francine Lacqua on Tuesday to discuss the gold “chart of the decade”, his new book “The New Case for Gold,” why gold is money and why gold is going to $10,000/oz in the coming years.

gold chart
Gold in USD – 10 Years (GoldCore)

Francine generously acknowledged how Rickards was “bullish on gold for quiet some time and actually you have been proven right … it is the chart of the decade”. She said that this “has to do with inflation expectations, it has to do with currency but it is really at the end of the day just a haven so people pile into it – as much as they do yen …”

GOLD IS MONEY
Jim responded that

“Gold is a form of money and not an investment. As money it competes with other kinds of money — the dollar, euro, yen etc.. They’re like horses going around a racetrack – place your bets but you have a subjective preference for money. 

As investors are losing confidence in central banks … that’s what’s been going on and been clearly revealed. Central bankers have told me that they don’t know what they’re doing and they sort of make it up as they go along. They experiment.

President Evans of the Chicago Fed has said this and others have said it privately.

I spoke to Ben Bernanke and he described that everything he’s done was an experiment — meaning you don’t know what the outcome is.

So in that world where investors are losing confidence in central banks, gold does well.

Right now there are tens of trillions of dollars of sovereign debt with negative yields to maturity – bunds and JGBs..

Gold has zero yield.

Zero is higher than a negative 50 bps so gold is now the high yield asset in this environment.”

STOCKS HIGHER ON “FULL DOVE”
Regarding stocks, Rickards had this to say:

“Both gold and stocks are going up, and the reason stocks are going up is because Janet Yellen is going “full dove”. There’s nothing the stock market doesn’t like about free money. Plus negative interest rates might be on the table for next year.

That’s sort of bullish for stocks but it’s also bullish for gold.

Sometimes gold and stocks go up together and sometimes they don’t. There’s no long term correlation, but right now in a world of easy money and negative yields it’s good for both stocks and gold.”

GOLD AT $10K/oz
When asked for his price target for gold, Rickards says

“I have a technical level for gold, it is $10,000 U.S. per ounce. That amount gets bigger over time because it’s a ratio of physical gold to printed money. The amount of physical gold doesn’t go up very much, but printed money goes up a lot, so the dollar target goes up more over time because of all the money printing.

$10,000 U.S. per ounce is the implied non-deflationary price for gold. If you have to go back to a gold standard, or anything like it to restore confidence, that is the number you must have to avoid deflation.

So $10,000 per ounce is mathematically derived and is not a guess.”

INTEREST RATES and US ECONOMY
Rickards is asked what happens if Yellen tries to normalise rates and says

“If Janet Yellen begins to normalize then it would probably throw the U.S. into a recession. A 25 basis points hike in December threw the U.S. stock market into a 10% correction in the next two months.

The U.S. is hanging by a thread. It looks like first quarter GDP is going to come in at well below 1% according to the Atlanta Fed Tracker.

What’s the difference between -1% and 1%? Technically not much. One may be a technical recession and one is not, but growth is extremely weak. You don’t raise interest rates in a recession. You’re supposed to ease in a recession.

International spill over as well as the U.S. economy being fundamentally weak is the reason to not raise rates.

The time to raise rates was 2011 and that’s long gone. But two wrongs don’t make a right.”

SHANGHAI ACCORD and ‘SUPER MARIO’
“The Phillips Curve seems to have broken down — if it ever existed. The bigger play is the “Shanghai Accord” which came out of the G20 meeting in Shanghai, China in February 2016.

It’s like a secret Plaza Accord between the U.S. Fed, the Bank of England, the Peoples Bank of China, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan.

The evidence for a new secretive plaza accord is overwhelming. See here is the deal – China needs to ease. But the last two times China eased, August 2015 and December/January 2016, the U.S. stock market fell out of bed.

So how do you ease China without destroying the U.S. stock market?

So the answer is keep the dollar/yuan cross rate unchanged. Then ease in the U.S. dollar so that China goes along for the ride. At the same time tighten Japan and Europe, so you get a stronger yen and a stronger euro.

China is a larger trading partner for Japan and Europe than the U.S. is, so it’s a backdoor easing for China. Cross rates unchanged but China gets to ease.”

Lacqua wonders if Mario Draghi in the ECB would agree to that and Rickards concludes by saying that ‘Super Mario’ “is his favourite central banker”.

Watch the full interview here


Week’s Market Updates
Property Bubble In Ireland Developing Again

Silver Bullion “Momentum Building” As “Supply Trouble Brewing”

Cyber Fraud At SWIFT – $81 Million Stolen From Central Bank

Gold In London Vaults Beneath Bank of England Worth $248 Billion – BBC

Silver Prices Up 6% This Week and 25% YTD; Gold Up 1% This Week

Gold News and Commentary
Silver “will likely continue to be the surprise outperformer in 2016” said GoldCore (Reuters)
“Tempter tantrum in global markets today is quite worrisome” said GoldCore (Marketwatch)
Gold climbs after Fed, BOJ stand pat on policy (Reuters)
Gold powers higher as BOJ’s surprise inaction hurts the dollar (Mineweb)
Russia’s VTB aims to supply up to 100 tonnes of gold to China per year (Reuters)

Gross Warns Financial System Likely To Implode – (Bloomberg Video)
JP Morgan Sees Draghi as Buyer of Last Resort for Equities (Bloomberg)
Venezuela Doesn’t Have Enough Money to Pay for Its Money (Bloomberg)
America’s earnings recession just got worse (CNN)
Germany’s Merkel warns of risks to banks from low interest rates (Reuters)
Read More Here

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The Fed Just Found Its Next Excuse Not To Hike Rates

As June looms, The Fed – having dropped ‘some’ of its global event risk language in the latest statement – is now desperate for an excuse to not hike rates (or face a total loss of credibility). Judging by Fed’s Kaplan, they just found it…

  • *KAPLAN SAYS FED WILL WATCH U.K. POLLS ON BREXIT CLOSELY IN JUNE

Which is a problem as ‘Brexit’ just moved into the lead among YouGov polls.

 

 

Either Brexit or market turmoil or a terrible jobs number…

  • *KAPLAN SAYS IF ECONOMY IMPROVES IN NEXT MONTHS, WILL BACK HIKE

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Friday A/V Club: The Anti-Campaign Song

I hate to depress everybody, but we still have half a year of campaigning to endure before we get to Election Day. To take the edge off the spectacle of those power-hungry pols demanding a place in the White House, take a moment to enjoy the opposite of a campaign song. From 1974, here’s Percy Mayfield’s “I Don’t Want to Be the President”:

Mayfield also wrote Ray Charles’ “Hit the Road, Jack,” and I guess that works as an election-year anthem too.

(For past editions of the Friday A/V Club, go here.)

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Is The World Getting Crazier, But We No Longer Notice?

Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith of OfTwoMinds blog,

The banquet of consequences is about to be served.

If we step back and look at what's happened since the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-09, it's easy to see that the global leadership has chosen to do more of what's failed spectacularly.

Since the Global Financial Meltdown, central bankers and planners have pursued policies designed to boost global stock markets to create a wealth effect in which people will be psychologically inclined to borrow and spend more because their stock market/IRA portfolios are rising. This supposedly encourages them to spend this "paper wealth."

But the policy runs aground on two realities: 1) only the top 5% of the households own enough stocks to make a difference to their wealth (and their perception of wealth, i.e. the wealth effect), and 2) the wealth effect only occurs in "good times" when people feel the economy is healthy and their prospects are improving.

When people sense the economy is unhealthy and their prospects have dimmed, they save more regardless of how much the stock market rises.

Signs of financial craziness abound:

— 25% of all stock market gains occur after Federal Reserve meetings: in other words, central banks "own the market."

 

— The Swiss central bank admitted to spending $470 billion on currency market manipulation since 2010.

 

— Other central banks have intervened in the stock and bond markets to the tune of trillions of dollars/yen/euro/yuan.

 

— The central bank of China has spent over $100 billion in a few months propping up the yuan.

 

— China has made it easier to borrow money again, sparking yet another housing bubble in First Tier cities like Shanghai and Beijing–as if another housing bubble will fix what's broken in China's economy.

 

— U.S. corporations have borrowed billions of dollars at 1% to buy back their own shares–a dynamic that may account for 50% of the current rise in the stock market.

 

— ObamaCare has added costs to the healthcare system rather than reducing costs; though healthcare spending adds to GDP, it is a form of consumption, not production.

 

— Cheap credit enabled energy companies to boost production to the point that oil is now in over-supply–and the need for revenues to fund the debts taken on to expand production force producers to keep pumping.

 

— Sweden has dropped its interest rate to negative territory, a policy that has sparked an insane housing bubble.

And this is considered sane and healthy?

In other words, central banks and planners have generated enormous bubbles in debt, housing and stocks to maintain the illusion that doing more of what failed spectacularly will actually fix what's broken. This is crazy, because these policies are what's broken. All these massive interventions and manipulations are driving the system off the cliff.

Longtime correspondent J.B. recently shared some personal observations about the craziness of the current American economy:

"I have to say I think things are even crazier now than is 2002-06.

 

Look back to then and attempt to gauge how your thinking has changed.

 

I guess back then I never realized how corrupt the government and Federal Reserve were/are. I actually did think we had a government which cared about the people. How naïve of me. I just thought they were stupid.

 

There have been no jobs created which pay anything except for programmers working on start-ups with billion dollar valuations which make no money. Interest rates have been driven so low that people have stepped out into High Yield and will lose most their money. The stock market really trades on no fundamentals except what the latest Fed head comes out and says that day. The only investment that your gut feel says should go up (gold) has been in the crapper for several years (do you think the Fed is suppressing in?)

 

I have to tell you there seems to be a lot of new restaurants popping up in L.A.; most do not seem to last and many of the old ones seem to disappear. We had friends in from France (she is French but a US citizen and lived in LA for quite a while). The one comment they had was they could not believe how expensive food is.

 

Every government unit in the United States (federal, state, county, etc.) is having to borrow and borrow. Basically they are all bankrupt."

J.B. mentions food and restaurants, but we all know costs are out of control in big-ticket items: rent, tuition, healthcare.  

I recently posted a link that public university tuition has soared 135% to 145% in the decade from 2004 to 2014–a period in which "official" inflation rose 25%.

We recently helped a neighbor get home from the hospital after emergency surgery for acute appendicitis. He told us a visiting-scholar friend from Europe who recently went to the emergency room was billed $12,000 for the visit, which did not include any surgery or procedures.

Americans with gold-plated healthcare coverage don't see what the system bills or what is actually paid, so completely outrageous bills are commonplace. 

(Note that caregivers aren't necessarily benefiting from these soaring costs to consumers, insurers, etc.–many physician correspondents have explained that their income has declined significantly in the past few years, extending a decades-long trend. In regions with a shortage of nurses, pay has risen markedly, but in other regions, nurses' compensation has not risen along with higher healthcare costs.)

High-end restaurants are indeed opening not just in L.A. and San Francisco, but in smaller cities and even towns–as if the populace with sufficient cash or credit to spend $100 on dinner for two is unlimited.

With rising rents, regulatory compliance, workers comp and wages, businesses are jacking up the price of their product/service just to cover the increases in their own expenses.

Corporations are cutting corners by reducing the contents of packages and reducing the quality of their ingredients/products.

Here is the craziness: nothing has actually been fixed in the past 7 years. Rather, everything that was broken in 2008 has been ramped up to an even higher levels of craziness.

The crazy solution to bursting housing bubbles is even bigger housing bubbles (see Sweden, China and the U.S.).

The failure of central planning (super-low interest rates, easy credit, etc.) has led to extreme extensions of the very policies that made the global financial meltdown inevitable.

Yet strangely, we accept this craziness as the New Normal. People with demanding jobs in Corporate America are working harder and longer for less pay (eroded by inflation) to the point of physical, emotional and psychological exhaustion. But the mortgage and bills must be paid, so they continue sacrificing their health for the sake of supporting an unsupportable lifestyle.

We now have a TINA economy–there is no alternative. People feel trapped, unable to choose another way of living and another livelihood, because all the alternatives mean sacrificing discretionary income–often by 2/3. The person earning $90,000 in Corporate America or the government can only earn $30,000 if they bailed out and took a less insane job.

Eventually, things start breaking.  The overworked person's health breaks.   The corporate bond market breaks, as debt that can't be paid is not paid. Small businesses break, close their doors and the owners retire or move on to some sort of work that is less stressful. The Venture Capital bubble of throwing millions of dollars at Unicorn startups with no revenues breaks.

Blind, destructive craziness has costs.  The supposed benefits of doing more of what failed spectacularly are short-term, and they're finally starting to run out.

The banquet of consequences is about to be served.

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Oil Suddenly Tumbles

Having risen all day on the back of the weaker dollar now sliding to nearly one year lows, moments ago oil just wiped out all its intraday gains and tumbled to unchanged, losing almost a dollar in seconds.

It is unclear what caused this sudden drop, although the headline that Saudi Arabia is set to export another record amount of oil in the coming month surely did not help, and may indicate that the ongoing quant driven buying and relentless short squeeze may be ending as eyes finally turn to fundamentals.

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Consumer “Hope” Slumps As Inflation Expectations Hit Record Lows

Despite surging stock prices in April, UMich’s final Consumer Sentiment print slipped to 89.0 (from 89.7 prelim and 91.0 previous) notably below expectations and the lowest since September 2015. Under the covers though, it was “hope” that really plunged, as Consumer expectations dropped to 77.0 – the lowest since September 2014. However, worst of all for The Fed is that medium-term inflation expectations tumbled back to 2.5% record lows.

Hope is plunging…

 

As inflation expectations tumbled back to record lows…

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