Saxo Fears “Cascading Implosion” As Italian Bank Collapse Continues

While the picture is a little more mixed today in Italian banks, as it appears investors are picking winners and losers rather than just broadly dumping it all, Monte Paschi is a standout disaster. Having crashed 45% since Brexit and with CDS implying a 40%-plus probability of default, the major Italian bank also has the worst 'Texas ratio' as stress tests loom… As Saxo's Peter Garnry warns "an implosion of the Italian banking system would cascade into other European banks and the funding market, creating disorderly markets and lower sentiment causing a slowdown in economic growth and also prices."

From bad to worse…

 

And as Saxo Bank's head of equity strategy Peter Garnry notes, Italian banks need a solution… quickly!

The biggest theme emerging in the post-Brexit world is the evolving banking crisis in Italy which has actually been under way since the beginning of the year as the new non-performing exposure rules started to be enforced by the European Banking Authority.

UniCredit, Intesa, Monte Paschi, Banco Popolare, and UBI collectively had €119 billion in unprovisioned non-performing loans at the end of Q1 with UniCredit’s exposure being the critical piece in the overall European banking system.

The Italian banking system has around €400bn in total non-performing loans. The aggregate common equity among Italian publicly-listed banks was around €125B (as of the end of Q1) and around 75% of the uncovered non-performing loans.

Another way to understand the Italian banking crisis is through the lens of the Texas Ratio, which measures the amount of non-performing assets and loans (including loans delinquent for more than 90 days) divided by the bank’s tangible equity plus its loan loss reserve.

A ratio above 100% is big warning signal.

Seven out of the 47 banks in the Euro STOXX 600 Banks Index are currently above that threshold with three of those being Italian banks. But just below the threshold two Italian banks – UniCredit and Intesa – follow, showing the magnitude of the Italian banking crisis.

*  *  *

While 'hope' for non bail-in bailouts remains, Garnry concludes, it is more likely, should the situation deteriorate further, that the European Central Bank will inject capital into Italian banks in return for collateral under the mandate of price stability. An implosion of the Italian banking system would cascade into other European banks and the funding market, creating disorderly markets and lower sentiment causing a slowdown in economic growth and also prices. 

As inflation is already barely above zero, another wave of downward pressure on consumer prices would force the ECB to act. Under such interpretation of price stability, the ECB could become the bailout mechanism for Italian banks, but it would come at a cost to shareholders and creditors.

via http://ift.tt/29nROpM Tyler Durden

Another Day, Another Garbage New Yorker Article on Clarence Thomas

Writing at The New Yorker, liberal legal pundit Jeffrey Toobin offered the following observation about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas:

Since his stormy confirmation, in 1991, Thomas has been the target of much unfair criticism. Some have argued, for example, that his years of silence during oral arguments meant he was not doing much work at all.

It’s certainly true that Justice Thomas has been subjected to that sort of baseless smear attack from certain liberal opponents. But what Toobin failed to mention is that Toobin himself is guilty of making that very same baseless smear attack on Thomas. For example, here’s Toobin writing at The New Yorker in February 2014:

In his first years on the Court, Thomas would rock forward, whisper comments about the lawyers to his neighbors Breyer and Kennedy, and generally look like he was acknowledging where he was. These days, Thomas only reclines; his leather chair is pitched so that he can stare at the ceiling, which he does at length. He strokes his chin. His eyelids look heavy. Every schoolteacher knows this look. It’s called “not paying attention.”

Toobin must think that readers of The New Yorker aren’t paying attention. Why else would he now pretend to be a critic of the very same garbage that he himself has been writing for years?

Related: The New Yorker‘s Embarrassing Attack on Clarence Thomas

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/29Ln2oX
via IFTTT

U.S. Oil Reserves Bigger Than Saudi Arabia’s

BestOilWellCalinTatuDreamstimeThe Rystad Energy consultancy has just released its new calculations of global oil reserves and estimates that the U.S. may harbor as much 264 billion barrels of oil compared to Saudi Arabia’s 212 billion barrels. Overall, world oil reserves exceed 2 trillion barrels. At current production rates, this is enough oil to supply the world for 70 years.

The Rystad analysts compare their estimates with those of the closely watched annual BP Statistical Review that conservatively calculates that the U.S. has 55 billion barrels of proved reserves and that world reserves stand at just under 1.7 trillion barrels.

ExxonMobil’s 2016 annual Outlook for Energy report observes:

Technology is not just expanding our daily oil production; it also continues to increase the amount of oil and liquid fuels we can count on for the future.

In 1981, the U.S. Geological Survey estimated that remaining global recoverable crude and condensate resources were 1 trillion barrels; today, the IEA estimates that it is 4.5 trillion barrels – enough to meet global oil demand beyond the 21st century. By 2040, the amount of resources yet to be produced will still be far higher than total production prior to 2040, even with a 20 percent rise in global oil demand.

However, the folks at Rystad do note that …

…cumulatively produced oil up to 2015 amounts to 1300 billion barrels. Unconventional oil recovery accounts for 30% of the global recoverable oil reserves while offshore accounts for 33% of the total. The seven major oil companies hold less than 10% of the total. This data confirms that there is a relatively limited amount of recoverable oil left on the planet. With the global car-park possibly doubling from 1 billion to 2 billion cars over the next 30 years, it becomes very clear that oil alone cannot satisfy the growing need for individual transport.

Well, maybe. As I explain in my book The End of Doom:

The the advent of self-driving vehicles could provide a technological end run around such projections of a growing vehicle fleet. Instead of sitting idle for most of every day, as the vast majority of automobiles do now, cars could be rented on demand.

Researchers at the University of Texas, devising a realistic simulation of vehicle use in cities that took into account issues like congestion and rush-hour usage, found that each shared autonomous vehicle could replace eleven conventional vehicles. Notionally then, it would take only about 800 million vehicles to supply all the transportation services for 9 billion people. That figure is 200 million vehicles fewer than the current world fleet of 1 billion automobiles. …

In addition, a shift to fleets of autonomous vehicles makes the clean electrification of transportation much more feasible, since such automobiles could drive themselves off for recharging and cleaning during periods of low demand.

Back in 2000, former Saudi oil minister Sheikh Yamani famously declared, “The Stone Age came to an end, not because we had a lack of stones, and the oil age will come to an end not because we have a lack of oil.”

Given technological trends that prediction still sounds right.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/29fINf5
via IFTTT

Trump Stunned At FBI Decision, Rages “The System Is Rigged”

The Donald is not happy…

via http://ift.tt/29LiFu8 Tyler Durden

FBI Recommends “No Charges” Against Hillary Clinton

In a surprising statement which concluded moments ago, FBI director James Comey announced that Federal officials have decided not to pursue federal charges against Hillary Clinton for her private email setup, an announcement that will send a shockwave throughout national politics.

In a press briefing at the bureau’s headquarters in downtown Washington, Comey said investigators and prosecutors had concluded there was not sufficient evidence to push forward with an indictment against Clinton, clearing her of a federal investigation that has loomed over her presidential campaign for nearly a year. Comey’s announcement comes just three days after the former secretary of State sat for a 3.5-hour interview with the FBI on Saturday, and just a few hours before President Obama is set to campaign with Clinton in Charlotte, N.C.

The punchline of Comey statement is that Hillary Clinton shouldn’t face charges over her e-mail practices while serving as Secretary of State.  The FBI’s conclusion will now be referred to the Justice Dept for a decision.

He adds that the decision, if agreed to by the Justice Dept, would remove one of the biggest remaining obstacles to Clinton’s presidential bid, putting an official end to questions about penalties for her use of a private e-mail server, though the issue may continue to resonate on the presidential campaign trail

Still, the FBI director admitted that Clinton and her aides were “extremely careless” with e-mail and that it’s “possible” hostile actors gained access to Clinton e-mail system however no direct evidence of it found though.

What is shocking is Comey’s admission that Clinton used not one but several different email servers, adding that 110 emails contained classified information and 8 contained top secret information, he also reported that Clinton did not turn over “several thousand” emails to the FBI and added that due to Hillary’s sloppy set up, it is possible that “hostile actors” got access to Clinton’s emails.

Yet, despite all these “facts”, the FBI has decided not to proceed with recommending charges.

Odd.

It appears that the FBI is implying that the only reason why no charges will be filed is because there was no “intent”, and yet according to the US criminal code, intent in this case is not required for prosection:

Whoever, being entrusted with or having lawful possession or control of any document, writing, code book, signal book, sketch, photograph, photographic negative, blueprint, plan, map, model, instrument, appliance, note, or information, relating to the national defense, (1) through gross negligence permits the same to be removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of his trust, or to be lost, stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, or (2) having knowledge that the same has been illegally removed from its proper place of custody or delivered to anyone in violation of its trust, or lost, or stolen, abstracted, or destroyed, and fails to make prompt report of such loss, theft, abstraction, or destruction to his superior officer— Shall be fined under this title or imprisoned not more than ten years, or both.

As the Hill adds, the juxtaposition is likely to inflame White House critics, who have insisted that political pressures would prevent any chance of an indictment for Clinton, regardless of the damage to national security.  Obama has previously weighed in to dismiss concerns about the investigation — to the ire of Republicans and federal investigators.

Last week, Attorney General Loretta Lynch said that she would defer judgment to the FBI and career Justice Department prosecutors, following a private and extremely controversial 30-minute meeting with former President Bill Clinton. The decision left Comey as the public face of the investigation, in what some viewed as an opportunity for the hard-nosed maverick to buck political pressures and act against Clinton. 

“It is impossible for the FBI not to recommend criminal charges against Hillary Clinton,” her presumptive general election opponent, Donald Trump, said on Twitter this weekend. “What she did was wrong! What Bill did was stupid!”

The FBI began its probe connected to Clinton last summer, when inspectors general at the State Department and federal intelligence agencies referred Clinton’s “homebrew” email arrangement to the Justice Department for review. The bespoke setup might have jeopardized sensitive national secrets, investigators warned.

Roughly one-in-15 of the work-related messages that Clinton sent or received on the private server have been classified at some level, according to the trove of 30,000 emails that she handed over to the State Department. Twenty-two emails were classified as top secret — the highest level of secrecy.

In May, the State Department’s inspector general released a scathing report claiming that Clinton had never asked to use the unconventional setup while in office, and that the request would have been denied if she had.

Comey has been under the gun to finalize the investigation before the presidential nominating conventions later this month. 

While the FBI director has insisted that he had no deadline to complete the probe, a delay past the end of the month would have been interpreted as a sign of trouble for her campaign.

* * *

Below are Comey’s full prepared remarks:

Good morning. I’m here to give you an update on the FBI’s investigation of Secretary Clinton’s use of a personal e-mail system during her time as Secretary of State.

After a tremendous amount of work over the last year, the FBI is completing its investigation and referring the case to the Department of Justice for a prosecutive decision. What I would like to do today is tell you three things: what we did; what we found; and what we are recommending to the Department of Justice.

This will be an unusual statement in at least a couple ways. First, I am going to include more detail about our process than I ordinarily would, because I think the American people deserve those details in a case of intense public interest. Second, I have not coordinated or reviewed this statement in any way with the Department of Justice or any other part of the government. They do not know what I am about to say.

I want to start by thanking the FBI employees who did remarkable work in this case. Once you have a better sense of how much we have done, you will understand why I am so grateful and proud of their efforts.

So, first, what we have done:

The investigation began as a referral from the Intelligence Community Inspector General in connection with Secretary Clinton’s use of a personal e-mail server during her time as Secretary of State. The referral focused on whether classified information was transmitted on that personal system.

Our investigation looked at whether there is evidence classified information was improperly stored or transmitted on that personal system, in violation of a federal statute making it a felony to mishandle classified information either intentionally or in a grossly negligent way, or a second statute making it a misdemeanor to knowingly remove classified information from appropriate systems or storage facilities.

Consistent with our counterintelligence responsibilities, we have also investigated to determine whether there is evidence of computer intrusion in connection with the personal e-mail server by any foreign power, or other hostile actors.

I have so far used the singular term, “e-mail server,” in describing the referral that began our investigation. It turns out to have been more complicated than that. Secretary Clinton used several different servers and administrators of those servers during her four years at the State Department, and used numerous mobile devices to view and send e-mail on that personal domain. As new servers and equipment were employed, older servers were taken out of service, stored, and decommissioned in various ways. Piecing all of that back together—to gain as full an understanding as possible of the ways in which personal e-mail was used for government work—has been a painstaking undertaking, requiring thousands of hours of effort.

For example, when one of Secretary Clinton’s original personal servers was decommissioned in 2013, the e-mail software was removed. Doing that didn’t remove the e-mail content, but it was like removing the frame from a huge finished jigsaw puzzle and dumping the pieces on the floor. The effect was that millions of e-mail fragments end up unsorted in the server’s unused—or “slack”—space. We searched through all of it to see what was there, and what parts of the puzzle could be put back together.

FBI investigators have also read all of the approximately 30,000 e-mails provided by Secretary Clinton to the State Department in December 2014. Where an e-mail was assessed as possibly containing classified information, the FBI referred the e-mail to any U.S. government agency that was a likely “owner” of information in the e-mail, so that agency could make a determination as to whether the e-mail contained classified information at the time it was sent or received, or whether there was reason to classify the e-mail now, even if its content was not classified at the time it was sent (that is the process sometimes referred to as “up-classifying”).

From the group of 30,000 e-mails returned to the State Department, 110 e-mails in 52 e-mail chains have been determined by the owning agency to contain classified information at the time they were sent or received. Eight of those chains contained information that was Top Secret at the time they were sent; 36 chains contained Secret information at the time; and eight contained Confidential information, which is the lowest level of classification. Separate from those, about 2,000 additional e-mails were “up-classified” to make them Confidential; the information in those had not been classified at the time the e-mails were sent.

The FBI also discovered several thousand work-related e-mails that were not in the group of 30,000 that were returned by Secretary Clinton to State in 2014. We found those additional e-mails in a variety of ways. Some had been deleted over the years and we found traces of them on devices that supported or were connected to the private e-mail domain. Others we found by reviewing the archived government e-mail accounts of people who had been government employees at the same time as Secretary Clinton, including high-ranking officials at other agencies, people with whom a Secretary of State might naturally correspond.

This helped us recover work-related e-mails that were not among the 30,000 produced to State. Still others we recovered from the laborious review of the millions of e-mail fragments dumped into the slack space of the server decommissioned in 2013.

With respect to the thousands of e-mails we found that were not among those produced to State, agencies have concluded that three of those were classified at the time they were sent or received, one at the Secret level and two at the Confidential level. There were no additional Top Secret e-mails found. Finally, none of those we found have since been “up-classified.”

I should add here that we found no evidence that any of the additional work-related e-mails were intentionally deleted in an effort to conceal them. Our assessment is that, like many e-mail users, Secretary Clinton periodically deleted e-mails or e-mails were purged from the system when devices were changed. Because she was not using a government account—or even a commercial account like Gmail—there was no archiving at all of her e-mails, so it is not surprising that we discovered e-mails that were not on Secretary Clinton’s system in 2014, when she produced the 30,000 e-mails to the State Department.

It could also be that some of the additional work-related e-mails we recovered were among those deleted as “personal” by Secretary Clinton’s lawyers when they reviewed and sorted her e-mails for production in 2014.

The lawyers doing the sorting for Secretary Clinton in 2014 did not individually read the content of all of her e-mails, as we did for those available to us; instead, they relied on header information and used search terms to try to find all work-related e-mails among the reportedly more than 60,000 total e-mails remaining on Secretary Clinton’s personal system in 2014. It is highly likely their search terms missed some work-related e-mails, and that we later found them, for example, in the mailboxes of other officials or in the slack space of a server.

It is also likely that there are other work-related e-mails that they did not produce to State and that we did not find elsewhere, and that are now gone because they deleted all e-mails they did not return to State, and the lawyers cleaned their devices in such a way as to preclude complete forensic recovery.

We have conducted interviews and done technical examination to attempt to understand how that sorting was done by her attorneys. Although we do not have complete visibility because we are not able to fully reconstruct the electronic record of that sorting, we believe our investigation has been sufficient to give us reasonable confidence there was no intentional misconduct in connection with that sorting effort.

And, of course, in addition to our technical work, we interviewed many people, from those involved in setting up and maintaining the various iterations of Secretary Clinton’s personal server, to staff members with whom she corresponded on e-mail, to those involved in the e-mail production to State, and finally, Secretary Clinton herself.

Last, we have done extensive work to understand what indications there might be of compromise by hostile actors in connection with the personal e-mail operation.

That’s what we have done. Now let me tell you what we found:

Although we did not find clear evidence that Secretary Clinton or her colleagues intended to violate laws governing the handling of classified information, there is evidence that they were extremely careless in their handling of very sensitive, highly classified information.

For example, seven e-mail chains concern matters that were classified at the Top Secret/Special Access Program level when they were sent and received. These chains involved Secretary Clinton both sending e-mails about those matters and receiving e-mails from others about the same matters. There is evidence to support a conclusion that any reasonable person in Secretary Clinton’s position, or in the position of those government employees with whom she was corresponding about these matters, should have known that an unclassified system was no place for that conversation. In addition to this highly sensitive information, we also found information that was properly classified as Secret by the U.S. Intelligence Community at the time it was discussed on e-mail (that is, excluding the later “up-classified” e-mails).

None of these e-mails should have been on any kind of unclassified system, but their presence is especially concerning because all of these e-mails were housed on unclassified personal servers not even supported by full-time security staff, like those found at Departments and Agencies of the U.S. Government—or even with a commercial service like Gmail.

Separately, it is important to say something about the marking of classified information. Only a very small number of the e-mails containing classified information bore markings indicating the presence of classified information. But even if information is not marked “classified” in an e-mail, participants who know or should know that the subject matter is classified are still obligated to protect it.

While not the focus of our investigation, we also developed evidence that the security culture of the State Department in general, and with respect to use of unclassified e-mail systems in particular, was generally lacking in the kind of care for classified information found elsewhere in the government.

With respect to potential computer intrusion by hostile actors, we did not find direct evidence that Secretary Clinton’s personal e-mail domain, in its various configurations since 2009, was successfully hacked. But, given the nature of the system and of the actors potentially involved, we assess that we would be unlikely to see such direct evidence. We do assess that hostile actors gained access to the private commercial e-mail accounts of people with whom Secretary Clinton was in regular contact from her personal account. We also assess that Secretary Clinton’s use of a personal e-mail domain was both known by a large number of people and readily apparent. She also used her personal e-mail extensively while outside the United States, including sending and receiving work-related e-mails in the territory of sophisticated adversaries. Given that combination of factors, we assess it is possible that hostile actors gained access to Secretary Clinton’s personal e-mail account.

So that’s what we found. Finally, with respect to our recommendation to the Department of Justice:

In our system, the prosecutors make the decisions about whether charges are appropriate based on evidence the FBI has helped collect. Although we don’t normally make public our recommendations to the prosecutors, we frequently make recommendations and engage in productive conversations with prosecutors about what resolution may be appropriate, given the evidence. In this case, given the importance of the matter, I think unusual transparency is in order.

Although there is evidence of potential violations of the statutes regarding the handling of classified information, our judgment is that no reasonable prosecutor would bring such a case. Prosecutors necessarily weigh a number of factors before bringing charges. There are obvious considerations, like the strength of the evidence, especially regarding intent. Responsible decisions also consider the context of a person’s actions, and how similar situations have been handled in the past.

In looking back at our investigations into mishandling or removal of classified information, we cannot find a case that would support bringing criminal charges on these facts. All the cases prosecuted involved some combination of: clearly intentional and willful mishandling of classified information; or vast quantities of materials exposed in such a way as to support an inference of intentional misconduct; or indications of disloyalty to the United States; or efforts to obstruct justice. We do not see those things here.

To be clear, this is not to suggest that in similar circumstances, a person who engaged in this activity would face no consequences. To the contrary, those individuals are often subject to security or administrative sanctions. But that is not what we are deciding now.

As a result, although the Department of Justice makes final decisions on matters like this, we are expressing to Justice our view that no charges are appropriate in this case.

I know there will be intense public debate in the wake of this recommendation, as there was throughout this investigation. What I can assure the American people is that this investigation was done competently, honestly, and independently. No outside influence of any kind was brought to bear.

I know there were many opinions expressed by people who were not part of the investigation—including people in government—but none of that mattered to us. Opinions are irrelevant, and they were all uninformed by insight into our investigation, because we did the investigation the right way. Only facts matter, and the FBI found them here in an entirely apolitical and professional way. I couldn’t be prouder to be part of this organization.

via http://ift.tt/29vKk34 Tyler Durden

Domino #3: M&G Suspends Trading In $6 Billion UK Property Fund

Things are getting bad fast in Britain…

Domino #1: *STANDARD LIFE INV PROPERTY DROPS 15%; TRADING IN FUND SUSPENDED

In a stark flashback to the catalytic event that ultimately brought down Bear Stearns in 2008, and subsequently unleashed the greatest financial crisis in history, last night we reported that Standard Life, has been forced to stop retail investors selling out of one of the UK’s largest property funds for at least 28 days after rapid cash outflows were sparked by fears over falling real estate values.

 

As we further noted, citing an analyst, “given the outflows the sector seems to be experiencing, this could well put downward pressure on commercial property prices,” said Laith Khalaf, senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. “The risk is this creates a vicious circle, and prompts more investors to dump property, until such time as sentiment stabilises.”

 

As we concluded, whie Brexit is not a Humpty Dumpty event, where all the Fed’s horses and all the Fed’s men can’t glue the eggshell back together, it is an event that forces investors to wake up and prepare their portfolios for the very real systemic risks ahead. And, indeed, if Standard Life was the first domino, moments ago the second domino also tumbled when as Bloomberg reported that Aviva Investors Property Trust is as of this moment "frozen" citing "extraordinary" market conditions.

Domino #2: *AVIVA SUSPENDS TRADING ON AVIVA INVESTORS PROPERTY TRUST

As the FT adds, Aviva Investments said it had prevented retail investors from selling out of its £1.8bn UK Property Trust since Monday afternoon.

 

Cited by Bloomberg, Aviva said in an email that "market circumstances, which are impacting the wider industry, have resulted in a lack of immediate liquidity" adding that "we have acted to safeguard the interests of all our investors by suspending dealing in the fund with immediate effect…. Suspension of dealing will give Aviva Investors greater control in managing cash flows and conducting orderly asset sales in order to meet our obligations to investors.”

And now Domino #3: *M&G SUSPENDS TRADING IN M&G PROPERTY PORTFOLIO FUND

As Bloomberg reports, M&G suspends trading in property portfolio, feeder funds, according to statement on website.

 

"Investor redemptions in the fund have risen markedly because of the high levels of uncertainty in the U.K. commercial property market since the outcome of the European Union referendum.

 

Redemptions have now reached a point where M&G believes it can best protect the interests of the funds’ shareholders by seeking a temporary suspension in trading."

The plunge before the freeze…

 

As Laith Khalaf, a senior analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown cited above, put it, “the dominoes are starting to fall in the U.K. commercial property market, as yet another fund locks its doors on the back of outflows precipitated by the Brexit vote. It’s probably only a matter of time before we see other funds follow suit."

We could not have said it better ourselves.

via http://ift.tt/29tYzZ5 Tyler Durden

The Hillbilly Epidemiologists

Jamaica Ginger Paralysis was one of the nastier byproducts of Prohibition. Jamaica Ginger, a patent remedy, contained alcohol, and the feds eventually realized that people were using it to get drunk. So the government demanded that the drug’s makers change their formula. The new recipe tasted terrible, so some manufacturers tried to circumvent the rules by adding an ingredient that turned out to be a neurotoxin.

By 1930, the resulting set of symptoms was starting to show up, including a partial paralysis that prevented people from walking normally. Doctors eventually identified the source of the problem. But before they figured out what was going on, the culprit had already been identified on several “hillbilly” and “race”—that is, country and blues—records. Clark Stooksbury, drawing on the work of the late pharmacologist John Morgan, tells the tale in The American Conservative. Here’s an excerpt:

Morgan speculated to Dan Baum that “no other incident has inspired as much popular music as the jake-walk epidemic.”…The most likely reason for the large number of songs is that the category of people who were recording roots music records around 1930 overlapped with that of people who were looking for ways to get drunk during Prohibition—mostly male, both black and white, and often economically marginal. Morgan didn’t report on which songs were works of journalism carved in wax and which were the work of memoirists, though it is a good bet that Tommy Johnson’s work falls into the latter category. But Morgan did note that most of the songs were “devoid of the sentimentality and moralizing that are an integral part of most narratives of tragedy in American ballads recorded commercially.”

“Jake Walk Blues” by the Allen Brothers is indeed devoid of sentimentality, moralizing, or self pity on the part of the sufferer. The song features a changing point of view from that of the shiftless jake sufferer to that of his woman, who is lacking in sympathy: “Listen here, Papa, can’t you see, you can’t drink jake and get along with me. You’re a jake walkin’ papa with the jake walk blues; I’m a red hot mama that you can’t afford to lose.” Alas, her man won’t change—shiftlessness runs in the family: “My daddy was a gambler and a drunkard too; if he was living today, he’d have the jake walk too. When I die, you can have my hand; I’m gonna take a bottle of jake to the Promised Land.”

To read the rest of Stooksbury’s story, go here. To hear the Allen Brothers’ song, dig in:

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/29nMjYa
via IFTTT

Four Years Ago This Month, Gary Johnson Was Begging Pathetically for Attention

As mentioned in the A.M. Links, a new USA Today/Suffolk poll has Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson pulling 8 percent support nationally, in third place behind Hillary Clinton (39 percent) and Donald Trump (35 percent), with presumptive Green Party nominee Jill Stein bringing up the rear with 3 percent. This is pretty familiar territory for Johnson and the rest of the field; a June 24-29 IBD/TIPP poll had the percentages 37-36-9-5, a June 21-27 Quinnipiac had ’em at 39-37-8-4, and so on.

Meanwhile, the candidate keeps earning free media. Here he is Friday on Real Time with Bill Maher, in which the host closes with “I really hope you get into the debates”:

How does this compare with four years ago? Here’s a Brian Doherty blog post from July 6, 2012:

poll released today from Gallup that specifically asks about third party candidates Gary Johnson (Libertarian), Jill Stein (Green), and Virgil Goode (Constitution) finds support topping off for any specific such candidate at 3 percent, for Johnson. Stein got 1 percent and Goode less than half a percent.

There was one other national poll showing that month, at 5 percent, but these were the exceptions rather than the rule. Talk back then of getting Johnson into the presidential debates was almost purely theoretical, because he just wasn’t being polled.

As for media, instead of getting the full CNN town hall treatment, Gary Johnson in July 2012 was…organizing protests over lack of coverage outside the headquarters of CNN. As the Libertarian told me just hours before last month’s town hall appearance,

Four years ago in June we’d be making about fifteen calls a week to end up with maybe on average one national media appearance of some sort a week….As opposed to [now] having twenty national media requests a day.

Reason on Gary Johnson here.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/29etset
via IFTTT

Starved by Socialist Policies, Venezuelans Urged to Take Up Urban Farming

In once-industrial American areas like Brooklyn and Detroit, the abundance of abandoned warehouse rooftops and eager, earnest hipsters has led to an array of urban-farming experiments over the past decade. But while some such projects are designed to feed poor residents, city agriculture in the U.S. is still mainly a boutique affair. In hunger-wracked Venezuela, however, the government hopes to rely on urban farms to make up 20 percent of the socialist nation’s food supply by 1919.

In February, the country launched a Ministry of Urban Farming, tasked with encouraging more home and community gardening and chicken-keeping. Its head, Lorena Freitez, said the push will help bring “food sovereignty” to Venezuelan cities, where both local food production and food imports are down and social unrest is increasing. 

“Now, amid the narrow roads and crumbling shacks of one of South America’s largest slums, a careful look yields something unexpected: a carefully tended tomato plant and a bush of basil leaves,” the Associated Press reports. “Francisco Salazar, head of a community council that works in Caracas slums, says he and his neighbors are growing beets, black beans, lettuce and dozens of other vegetables in a large community garden.” 

Caracas residents haul dirt from nearby mountains to balcony, rooftops, and front-yard garden plots. 

Call it locavorism or call it self-sufficiency, but community-based agriculture can’t be anything but a win for impoverished communities. In America, many places are still grappling with zoning laws and building codes that prevent such projects from launching. Of course, with Venezuela, any growth in such activities is tempered by the fact that it’s government polices putting people in poverty and creating food shortages in the first place. 

Stephen Devereux, a development economist from the University of Sussex, told ResearchGate that “what is happening [in Venezuela] is strikingly similar to what happened to countries like North Korea, which had a severe famine in the 90s, because the government intervened too much in the economy. “There is a serious food crisis in Venezuela, because the government interfered in agricultural production and trade, and they are rationing electricity and water.” The electricity rationing, which begun in April, was ended on July 4.

Hungry mobs have taken to attacking and looting supermarkets and food-delivery trucks. Meanwhile, peaceful protests and looters alike are met with repression by the country’s National Guard. “What has been a slow-motion crisis in Venezuela seems to be careening into a new, more dangerous phase.,” The Washington Post warns.

Over the first five months of this year, Venezuelans have violently looted businesses — or tried to do so — at least 254 times, according to the Venezuelan Observatory of Social Conflict. The number of protests over food has risen each month this year, to 172 in May. Several people have died and hundreds more have been arrested in incidents of unrest across the country.

Home and community gardens can’t hurt, but as community-leader Salazar told AP, they’re but a “Band-Aid” on a much bigger wound. Besides producing an insufficient quantity of food, it’s hard to imagine urban-home gardens and community farm cooperatives avoiding the problems that plague Venezuelan grocery stores: the presence of desperate, hungry people and corrupt and meddling state officials. 

As socialist policies put poor Venezuelans in more misery and food distributors in danger, capitalism and technology are helping keep Venezuela’s middle- and upper-classes stocked with food. Residents told the Post they had been shopping on Amazon for staples such as powdered milk, sugar, and bread, items that were then shipped from Miami. Among those waiting in government food lines, meanwhile, a more localized form of entrepreneurship has emerged, with vendors selling black-market cigarettes and lemonade from old shopping carts.

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/29k5Qbk
via IFTTT