NAR Warns “Current Housing Recovery Could Stall” As Pending Home Sales Slump To 7-Month Lows

Following the tumble in new- and existing-home sales in August (after Q2’s bounce), Pending Home Sales confirmed weakness, dropping 2.4% MoM (against expectations of no change) to 7-month lows. Despite homebuilder sentiment soaring to post-crisis highs, it appears the Summer bounce is dead and the so-called US housing recovery is rolling over. NAR’s Lawrence Yun blames “steeper home prices” and “lack of inventory,” and warns “evidence is piling up that without more new home construction the current housing recovery could stall.”

Pending Home Sales dropped to the lowest since January…

As Bloomberg notes, the fall in contract signings was the third in four months, adding to signs that a relative paucity of available homes is holding back the market. Recent data have shown that new U.S. home construction fell more than projected in August, while home prices are rising at a solid pace. Borrowing costs remain near historic lows while jobs and wages are gaining, factors that will continue to support housing.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says suffering supply levels have taken the wind out of the momentum the housing market experienced earlier this year.

 

“Contract activity slackened throughout the country in August except for in the Northeast, where higher inventory totals are giving home shoppers greater options and better success signing a contract,” he said.

 

“In most other areas, an increased number of prospective buyers appear to be either wavering at the steeper home prices pushed up by inventory shortages or disheartened by the competition for the miniscule number of affordable listings.”

 

According to Yun, evidence is piling up that without more new home construction the current housing recovery could stall. Housing inventory has declined year-over-year for 15 straight months; properties in August typically sold 11 days quicker than in August 20151 and after increasing 5.1 percent last month, existing-home prices have risen year-over-year for 54 consecutive months.

 

“There will be an expected seasonal decline in new listings in coming months, which could accelerate price appreciation and make finding an affordable home even more of a struggle for would-be buyers,” added Yun.

Charts: Bloomberg

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Watch Live As Wells CEO John Stumpf Gets Grilled On The Hill Again: Five Things To Look For

Live Feed from the hearing:

* * *

Wells Fargo embattled CEO John Stumpf returns to Capitol Hill for the second time in 10 days, for a hearing with the House Financial Services Committee – the same committee which yesterday spoke to Janet Yellen – scheduled to start at 10 am EDT and likely to last much of the day. Despite Stumpf’s belated clawback of $41 million in unvested stock, which took place only after a tremendous congressional and populist outrage, his job is very much under threat and the bank is facing rising political pressure over the recent cross-selling scandal in which the bank opened 2 million unauthorized accounts, that has become a major issue in Washington and on Wall Street. His prepared remarks can be read here.

Earlier today the WSJ reported that three senators, Jeff Merkley (D., Ore.), Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.) and Robert Menendez (D., N.J.) wrote a letter to SEC Chairman Mary Jo White urging the regulator to probe further into whether Wells Fargo and its senior officials “violated laws by misleading investors and firing whistleblowers while the bank oversaw the creation of millions of unauthorized, fraudulent accounts.” As reported by the WSJ, the three senators, all members of the banking committee, said the situation at Wells Fargo does “justify an investigation into at least three types of securities law violations,” according to the letter. The first focuses on whether the bank’s executives violated the internal-controls provision of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act by signing off on inaccurate financial reporting.

The senators also asked the SEC to look at whether the bank committed securities fraud by failing to disclose problems with fake accounts while promoting its so-called cross-sell ratio to investors. Finally, the letter urged the SEC to inquire whether the bank violated whistleblower-protection laws by firing employees who tried to report misconduct.

The latest bad news for Wells follows yesterday announcement by California, Wells Fargo’s home state, that it suspended business relationships with the bank for a year on Wednesday and said it would work with the state’s two giant public pension funds to change the management structure at the bank, including separating the roles of CEO and chairman.

As Reuters adds, the episode has been a stunning reversal for Stumpf, long regarded as a safe pair of hands in the industry for navigating Wells Fargo successfully through the financial crisis.

“I don’t know that he will survive this. I don’t think there’s any way to come out of this with the same leadership,” said Patricia Lenkov, CEO of Agility Executive Search.

While Thursday’s hearing may be softer on Stumpf than the bipartisan tongue-lashing he took from the Senate Banking Committee on Sept. 20, in which Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren called him a “gutless leader” who should be criminally investigated, it will still be very contentious and will focus on the bank’s decision to clawback a part of his compensation only after his appearance in the Sanate.

Warren said on Wednesday that Wells Fargo’s decision to launch an internal investigation and claw back bonuses paid to Stumpf and Carrie Tolstedt, the former head of the retail division at the center of the scandal, were “important first steps,” but still insufficient. “The reduced compensation represents only a fraction of the total pay and bonuses received by Mr. Stumpf and Ms. Tolstedt during the years that their compensation was based in part on inflated retail account growth and cross-selling success,” she wrote in a letter to Wells Fargo’s board of directors.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen promised the committee on Wednesday that the central bank will scrutinize all big banks in the wake of the Wells Fargo scandal. Some Democratic committee members said it showed that some banks are too big to manage and should be broken up.

* * *

Among the things the apologetic Stumpf will tell lawmakers on Thursday is that Wells Fargo will eliminate sales quotas for branch staff from Oct. 1, accelerating a previous plan to halt the practice by Jan. 1, according to prepared testimony he will deliver.

Below are several sellside opinions of why today’s grilling will be even tougher than the first one:

FBR (Edward Mills)

  • House cmte likely to be “even tougher” on Stumpf than Senate as “volume” is often higher in the House; watch for whether Stumpf’s forfeiting $41m in equity awards, forgoing salary, not taking bonus in 2016 allows for better performance, or whether members push for more action
  • One “potential benefit” to Stumpf: House finished work late last night; may reduce attendance for today’s hearing
  • Notes some cmte Democrats called on Yellen, Fed to break up WFC, asked for return of Glass-Steagall, noted WFC enforcement action showed the bank is not only too big to manage, but also too big to regulate
  • On Calif. statement: Damage may not be contained to just that state; has been concerned about wider ramifications since WFC appeared unable to contain initial fall-out from CFPB enforcement action
  • Now entering “the next phase,” with any possible regulator -– state or federal -– looking to see how it can take its own enforcement action or start investigation
  • Investors yesterday may have been focused on Stumpf’s performance today, rather than Calif. actions

COMPASS POINT (Isaac Boltansky)

  • Sees today’s hearing likely “more contentious, lengthy, and unpleasant” than last week’s Senate hearing, as ~60 House cmte members “stretch to secure their sound-bite”
  • Watching Chair Jeb Hensarling, Ranking Member Maxine Waters, along with Keith Ellison (“progressive pillar,’’ most likely to meet “tone and tenor” of Sen. Elizabeth Warren’s Q&A last week); John Delaney (former CEO of financial services firm CapitalSource); Scott Garrett (facing tough reelection race)

MACQUARIE (David Konrad)

  • Timing isn’t right to become “more constructive” on WFC shares, even though valuation is near historical relative value
  • Headline risk may persist longer than a few weeks, especially for “relatively expensive” stock with “perceived safe haven status”; cites past underperformance of peers during litigation issues (JPM Whale, GS Abacus)
  • While determining floor is “challenging” given uncertainty of headline risk, earnings power, look at earnings run rate/multiple points to ~$42

KBW (Brian Gardner)

  • Yesterday’s hearing with Yellen didn’t uncover new info information or open new lines of political battle, though it bolstered KBW belief that WFC scandal has raised regulatory risk for consumer banks
  • Sees Congress pushing regulators to be “relentless” in examining banks with cross-selling practices, “severe” in punishing mistakes
  • May be bipartisan coalition possibly ready to break up banks in 2017

* * *

Here, courtesy of WSJ, are 5 things to watch for at today’s hearing:

1. Expect a Contentious Hearing

Mr. Stumpf can expect an even more contentious day in the House than he did at the Senate last week. And that’s despite the fact that the Senate hearing brought calls for his resignation. Given members of the House Financial Services Committee all face re-election in November, they have even more reason to look to score points at Mr. Stumpf’s expense. “The Wells Fargo scandal has emerged in the dead heat of the election season defined by populist anger,” said Isaac Boltansky, an analyst for Compass Point Research & Trading LLC, an investment firm. “I can guarantee you every member of the committee, all 59 of them, will use their five minutes to illustrate they are tougher than the person next to them on big banks.”

2. After the Clawback, What’s Next?

Hours after Wells Fargo announced a decision to “claw back” large chunks of compensation for its top executives, politicians were already discussing what other steps they wanted the bank to take. Those will surely be debated at Thursday’s hearing. Rep. Brad Sherman (D, Calif.), a member of the House panel, told Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen Wednesday that the scandal demonstrated the bank was too big to manage and too big to regulate. “Break them up,” he said. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D., Mass.), whose tirade against Mr. Stumpf at the Senate hearing became the talk of Washington, made clear where she stood. “As I said last week, Mr. Stumpf should resign, return every nickel he made while this scam was ongoing, and face [Securities and Exchange Commission and Justice Department] investigations,” she said in a statement following the clawback announcement.

3. When Did He Find Out?

The lawmakers will press Mr. Stumpf to provide definitive responses to some key questions left unanswered at the Senate hearing, according to Congressional staffers. The most important, they say, is exactly when and how he became aware of the problems in the bank’s retail business that resulted in employees opening as many as 2 million accounts without customers’ knowledge and the firing of 5,300 employees over five years. At the Senate hearing, Mr. Stumpf failed to provide a clear answer to the lawmakers’ repeated questions about the timing, saying he learned about the problem “later in 2013.” House lawmakers are likely to demand more specific information, including whether Mr. Stumpf was left in the dark until the Los Angeles Times reported on problems in October and December of 2013.

4. What Did Lawmakers Learn From Documents?

When the House committee announced its plan to hold the hearing, it requested Wells Fargo and regulators submit a vast number of documents to help with its own investigation. The committee has received some of those documents, and it is expected to unveil some of the initial takeaways at the hearing. Wells Fargo has agreed to produce within the next month all requested documents — likely in the “thousands of pages” — and has already sent in some information, according to Congressional sources. The bank was asked to provide “all records relating to the questionable sales practices that Wells Fargo produced or made available” to local and federal regulators. The bank and the committee are currently discussing a schedule for transcribed interviews with four Wells Fargo executives including former community banking head Carrie Tolstedt. Kicking off their own inquiry, 10 Democratic senators sent a letter to Mr. Stumpf Wednesday requesting the bank provide detailed answers to 58 questions on a range of topics from chronologies of events, to treatment of employees, to consumer harm.

5. Where Are the Regulators?

Mr. Stumpf is flying solo at the House hearing. In the Senate, regulators that imposed a combined $185 million fine on the bank were also present. Those agencies, which include the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, haven’t been invited to the House panel. Why not? Members of the Republican majority on the committee say they want to focus on Mr. Stumpf. Democrats say Rep. Jeb. Hensarling, the committee’s Republican chairman and a leading critic of the CFPB, didn’t want to give regulators another opportunity to boast about their work on Wells Fargo. CFPB Director Richard Cordray did offer to testify but was rebuffed by Mr. Hensarling. The CFPB and the OCC have already submitted documents requested by the committee, which include records relating to the allegations of improper activities at Wells Fargo, as well as emails and other records of correspondence

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The Justice Department Won’t Stop Going to Bat for Bad Science

A recent review by a White House council on forensic science found that junk science is all too common in the criminal justice system, but the Justice Department is resisting recommendations to increase safeguards against scientifically invalid testimony and require greater disclosure of misconduct and shoddy work.

Last Wednesday, the President’s Council of Advisers on Science and Technology (PCAST) released a report finding that reviews of several commonly used forensic methods—such as analysis of hair, bitemarks, and shoe-prints—”have revealed a dismaying frequency of instances of use of forensic evidence that do not pass an objective test of scientific validity.”

In many of the fields that the report investigated, it found that there were no rigorous scientific studies establishing error rates or reliability. In the case of bitemark analysis—a notoriously subjective method, as former Reason reporter Radley Balko has extensively reported—the report found that “available scientific evidence strongly suggests that examiners not only cannot identify the source of bitemark with reasonable accuracy, they cannot even consistently agree on whether an injury is a human bitemark.”

There have been numerous forensic scandals over the past several years. Last year, the FBI admitted that nearly every one of the experts at its microscopic hair analysis lab had given scientifically invalid testimony in almost 270 cases. Of those cases, 32 defendants were sentenced to death, and 14 were eventually executed or died in prison.

Despite the embarrassing admissions, not to mention the possibility that prosecutors could be putting innocent people in jail, the Justice Department has rejected PCAST’s recommendations, which said the Justice Department should require forensic experts to disclose high error rates for some of those methods in their testimony and, where methods haven’t yet been independently verified, not to use them at all.

“We remain confident that, when used properly, forensic science evidence helps juries identify the guilty and clear the innocent, and the department believes that the current legal standards regarding the admissibility of forensic evidence are based on sound science and sound legal reasoning,” Attorney General Loretta Lynch said in a statement to The Wall Street Journal. “While we appreciate their contribution to the field of scientific inquiry, the department will not be adopting the recommendations related to the admissibility of forensic science evidence.”

Likewise, the FBI in a statement to the Journal that it “disagrees with many of the scientific assertions and conclusions of the report” and said the report “makes broad, unsupported assertions regarding science and forensic science practice.”

Criminal defense lawyers, however, say that the rejections of the PCAST recommendations, as well as several changes to a recently adopted code of ethics for forensic professionals, leaves the balance of power firmly weighted in favor of law enforcement and prosecutors.

“It’s very disappointing that scientist should spend months putting together a comprehensive report that the Justice Department took about a minute and half to reject,” National Association of Criminal Defense Lawyers president Barry Pollack says. “But at the end of the day, if the Justice Department does not comply with recommendations, what it’s going to find is judges are not going to admit forensic evidence it wants to introduce in trials around the country. In my view, ultimately the Justice Department is going to have to conform testimony to scientific standards.”

As the report notes, judges are ultimately the “gatekeepers” of what evidence is admissible in court.

In an op-ed in The Wall Street Journal last Tuesday, Alex Kozinski, the outspoken chief judge of the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, called on the Justice Department to adopt the PCAST recommendations and reject what he called “voodoo science” plaguing the justice system.

“Among the more than 2.2 million inmates in U.S. prisons and jails, countless may have been convicted using unreliable or fabricated forensic science,” Kozinski wrote. “The U.S. has an abiding and unfulfilled moral obligation to free citizens who were imprisoned by such questionable means.”

Peter Neufeld, the co-director of the Innocence Project, which works to exonerate wrongly convicted people, says the Justice Department’s decision “is a smackdown of transparency and neutrality and objectivity and independence.”

“They really don’t offer a single substantive criticism,” Neufeld, also a member of the National Commission on Forensic Science, says. “All they do is summarily decide they’re not going to adopt the recommendations. What’s unfortunate is that sort of preemptive refusal is illustrative of a fundamental problem we’ve had with forensic science over the last 75 years: It’s been controlled by law enforcement, not scientists.”

Crime labs, which are relied on to give objective analysis of forensic evidence, are usually administered by law enforcement agencies, and the FBI trains forensic examiners in many state labs.

Critics like Neufeld say this arrangement is the proverbial fox guarding the hen house. The ACLU of Massachusetts is asking a judge to vacate an astonishing 24,000 drug convictions that were possibly tainted by the misconduct of a state crime lab chemist, who pled guilty in 2012 to forging test results in favor of law enforcement. In Orange County, Calif., a former crime lab official was accused in a court filing Wednesday of changing her testimony regarding DNA evidence to aid prosecutors in two murder trials.

The Justice Department, however, appears to have little interest in substantive changes to the status quo. For example, the National Commission on Forensic Science released a draft code of ethics for forensic science providers in March. The draft code included a mandate to inform all parties, including defendants and victims, when misconduct or a lack of professional standards adversely affects a case.

But when Attorney General Lynch formally adopted the new code of ethics in a Sept. 6 memo, it only required forensic providers to “inform the prosecutors involved […] of material nonconformities or breaches of law or professional standards that adversely affect a previously issued report or testimony.”

The Justice Department is not legally obligated to directly inform defendants when such mistakes or misconduct occur, leaving it up to prosecutors. “[The Justice Department] will not acknowledge there’s an ethical obligation to notify defendants,” Neufeld says. “It’s extraordinary.”

Betty Layne DesPortes is a criminal defense attorney in Virginia and also the president-elect of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences. Speaking in her capacity as an attorney and not for the AAFS, DesPortes says the Justice Department made the correct decision, since government crime labs have strict protocols for who they can communicate with. The line scientists at the lab, DesPortes says, should remain scientists, not advocates.

However, both Neufeld and DesPortes say that just leaving it in the hands of prosecutors to fix the mistakes of expert witnesses that the prosecutors themselves put on the stand is not an ideal solution.

“Prosecutors have fallen down on their Brady duties,” Desportes said, referring to prosecutors’ constitutional obligation to disclose relevant evidence to the defense, “and always trusting prosecutors has resulted in many problems.”

When The Washington Post investigated the Justice Department’s probe of faulty FBI hair analysis testimony, it found that “while many prosecutors made swift and full disclosures [to defendants], many others did so incompletely, years late or not at all. The effort was stymied at times by lack of cooperation from some prosecutors and declining interest and resources as time went on.” One defense attorney only learned that his client’s case had been affected after he read it in the Post.

One solution, advocates say, is finally separating crime labs from law enforcement. In 2009, the National Research Council released a lengthy report on improving forensic science. Among its conclusions: “Scientific and medical assessment conducted in forensic investigations should be independent of law enforcement efforts either to prosecute criminal suspects or even to determine whether a criminal act has indeed been committed. Administratively, this means that forensic scientists should function independently of law enforcement administrators.”

The National Commission on Forensic Science echoed the report’s call in its proposed code of ethics, which would have mandated labs to “conduct independent, impartial, and objective examinations that are fair, unbiased, and fit-for-purpose.”

Yet, in the eventual version adopted by the Justice Department, the word “independent” was dropped, and the language was changed to “conduct examinations that are fair, unbiased, and fit-for-purpose.”

The Justice Department did not respond to a request for comment for this article.

DesPortes says that more rigorous testing, more oversight of prosecutors to ensure they notify defendants in a timely manner, and loosening some of the restrictions around crime labs—for instance, letting forensic scientists communicate with defense counsels and removing restrictions against them consulting on defense cases when it doesn’t present a conflict of interest—could all go a long way in evening the playing field in forensic science.

“I think it can be improved with more emphasis on how science is supposed to operate,” DesPortes says, “making sure scientists are able to do as science says: be objective.”

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Live Feed: NJ Transit Commuter Train Crashes Into Hoboken Station – “Mass Injuries” Reported

A New Jersey Transit commuter train crashed into the Hoboken terminal around 8:30AM, causing major structural damage and numerous injuries.

According to RT, preliminary reports are saying “approximately 100” injured passengers as area hospitals are mobilizing to receive the casualties.

According to NBC, the cause of the accident was not immediately clear, though the police chief told NBC New York there were “mass casualties.” Fire officials said they were investigating the crash as a possible derailment.

Several people who were on the train tweeted they felt “lucky to be alive.”

All PATH service at the Hoboken station is suspended.

 

 

NBC Live Feed:

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Peak Oil? Cue Crickets Chirping

PeakOilGristApparently Google searches for the terms like “oil glut” and “too much oil” are now much more popular than those for “peak oil” from a decade back. Back in in 2009, I wrote:

In May 2006, I reported in Reason that global oil reserves were ample to supply humanity’s needs for liquid fuels until at least 2030, despite headline-grabbing predictions that our supply had already peaked. Afterwards, the world experienced an unprecedented run-up in oil prices topping out at $147 per barrel in July 2008, which led some negative prognosticators to get a little cocky. One of the leading doomsters, Houston investment banker Matthew Simmons, told CNBC in July 2008, “The idea that it’s a bubble is all poppycock.” He confidently added that the price of oil “is not going to collapse.” Simmons advised Americans to move into villages and to buy locally produced foods and goods.

Prices did surge again, but human ingenuity in form of fracking and other innovations proved again that extent of resources is determined by technology and markets not just the accumulation of stuff in the ground. Global production soared and prices fell. The peak oil chorus of doom has largely gone silent. Over at RealClear Politics, there is a terrific article detailing the sorry history of periodic peak oil hysteria. From the article:

This perception that we would run out of oil, and sooner rather than later, became more than a theory, one that went by the name “peak oil.” It became a kind of catechism. It was included in the prayer books of the environmental movement and incorporated into the legislative history and language of U.S. federal energy policy. It became an underlying basis for everything from Jimmy Carter’s admonition to turn down the nation’s thermostats, the enactment of 55-mile-per-hour speed limits, and federal mandates on gasoline standards for cars and trucks.

Today, the question is how policymakers should one react when the conventional wisdom is proven so spectacularly wrong, as is the case here. …

One factor the peak-oil adherents never seemed to consider was that the supply of oil, like many commodities, was directly influenced by price—and that drillers and investors previously not searching for it would return to exploration if market prices became high enough.

“The biggest supporters of Peak Oil almost all are petroleum geologists; almost none of them are economists,” said Ronald Bailey, an author and science correspondent with Reason magazine who has written extensively on climate and energy. “They really don’t understand markets.”

*Oh, wait. The article quotes me. Despite that, reading the whole column is well worth your time.

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Peak Oil? Cue Crickets Chirping

PeakOilGristApparently Google searches for the terms like “oil glut” and “too much oil” are now much more popular than those for “peak oil” from a decade back. Back in in 2009, I wrote:

In May 2006, I reported in Reason that global oil reserves were ample to supply humanity’s needs for liquid fuels until at least 2030, despite headline-grabbing predictions that our supply had already peaked. Afterwards, the world experienced an unprecedented run-up in oil prices topping out at $147 per barrel in July 2008, which led some negative prognosticators to get a little cocky. One of the leading doomsters, Houston investment banker Matthew Simmons, told CNBC in July 2008, “The idea that it’s a bubble is all poppycock.” He confidently added that the price of oil “is not going to collapse.” Simmons advised Americans to move into villages and to buy locally produced foods and goods.

Prices did surge again, but human ingenuity in form of fracking and other innovations proved again that extent of resources is determined by technology and markets not just the accumulation of stuff in the ground. Global production soared and prices fell. The peak oil chorus of doom has largely gone silent. Over at RealClear Politics, there is a terrific article detailing the sorry history of periodic peak oil hysteria. From the article:

This perception that we would run out of oil, and sooner rather than later, became more than a theory, one that went by the name “peak oil.” It became a kind of catechism. It was included in the prayer books of the environmental movement and incorporated into the legislative history and language of U.S. federal energy policy. It became an underlying basis for everything from Jimmy Carter’s admonition to turn down the nation’s thermostats, the enactment of 55-mile-per-hour speed limits, and federal mandates on gasoline standards for cars and trucks.

Today, the question is how policymakers should one react when the conventional wisdom is proven so spectacularly wrong, as is the case here. …

One factor the peak-oil adherents never seemed to consider was that the supply of oil, like many commodities, was directly influenced by price—and that drillers and investors previously not searching for it would return to exploration if market prices became high enough.

“The biggest supporters of Peak Oil almost all are petroleum geologists; almost none of them are economists,” said Ronald Bailey, an author and science correspondent with Reason magazine who has written extensively on climate and energy. “They really don’t understand markets.”

*Oh, wait. The article quotes me. Despite that, reading the whole column is well worth your time.

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Mainstream Media Still Silent As Dakota Access Pipeline Protests Spread, Construction Blocked In Iowa

Submitted by Nick Bernabe via TheAntiMedia.org,

The media blackout of opposition to the Dakota Access Pipeline continues as widening protests, which have now blocked pipeline construction in Iowa, go unreported by the national corporate media.

The “Mississippi Stand” water protector encampment in Sandusky, Iowa, successfully blocked Dakota Access Pipeline construction as of Saturday, September 24th. The protests are taking place where the pipeline is planned to cross the Mississippi River.

Water protectors attached themselves to construction equipment in acts of civil disobedience until they were eventually arrested — but police failed to corral them before they halted the pipeline’s construction. Law enforcement arrested a total of 12 people on Saturday at the Mississippi Stand site, according to independent media outlet Unicorn Riot. At least 44 people have been arrested at the Iowa protest site in previous weeks.

At issue is the $3.8 billion Dakota Access oil pipeline that Native American tribes, led by the Lakota Sioux, say will endanger tribal and public fresh water across an area that spans several states. In a statement to Unicorn Riot, the Mississippi Stand confirmed their opposition to the Dakota Access Pipeline:

“Mississippi Stand comes together in solidarity with Standing Rock, because we acknowledge the importance of the protection and preservation of Native Land. It’s crucial that all water protectors rise up together to fight for our Mother Earth, and all who inhabit this beautiful planet. This begins with defending our most valuable life source, water.”

Meanwhile, protests continue near the Standing Rock camp at the Dakota Access Pipeline construction site in North Dakota despite the Justice Department’s order to stop construction on Army Corps of Engineer land. Twenty-one water protectors were arrested on Wednesday alone as militarized police with armored vehicles and shotguns descended upon peaceful protesters. The protesters were arrested for trespassing and resisting arrest, among other charges, Rob Keller of the Morton County Sheriff’s Department confirmed to Anti-Media.

But local Native Americans are not alone in this fight. Tribes from all over the country have joined together in one of the largest shows of indigenous solidarity in history — and they are joined by climate activists, farmers, and landowners who have had their land confiscated through the force of eminent domain in order make room for the pipeline.

Since the corporate media has repeatedly shown it is unwilling to cover the Dakota Access Pipeline protests, stay up to date by checking out Anti-Media’s coverage here.

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How Reuters “Tweaked” Its Latest Poll (Again) To Show A Clinton Lead

Reuters has taken some heat in recent months for “tweaking” their polling methodology seemingly every time the data reveals “inconvenient” results for Hillary (see our previous posts on the topic here and here).  But the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling “tweak” is truly amazing.  Having run out of options for slyly “tweaking” questions and categories to sway respondents in their preferred direction, Reuters has apparnetly resorted to blatant poll tampering by altering their polling samples to include a disproportionate number of democrats.

In their latest poll, released just two days ago, Reuters found Hillary to have a 6 point lead in a head-to-head contest with Trump.  But, when you dig a little deeper you find that Reuters’ polling sample included 44% democrats and only 33% republicans.  Which would be fine, of course, if it had any basis in reality.  But, as The Pew Research Center points out very clearly (see table below), registered democrats represent about 33% of the electorate while republicans are 29%…a modest 4 point gap versus the 11 point advantage in the Reuters sample.

Reuters/Ipsos

 

Of course, this is significant because, as any reasonable person would expect, democrats swing toward Hillary by an overwhelming margin of 84% and, vice-versa, 78% of republicans swing toward Trump. 

Now, using Reuters’ data, Hillary supposedly has a 6-point lead over Trump.  However, if we alter the sample data to reflect what Pew says is the real distribution of democrats versus republicans (i.e. 33% vs. 29%, respectively) and apply the same support levels by party affiliation it results in an 8.5% swing toward Trump who would have a 2.5% lead….very inconvenient.

Reuters/Ipsos

 

And just to confirm, here is how The Pew Research Center says that the distribution of party affiliation has trended over time.  At least since 1992, democrats have never enjoyed an 11 point registration gap that Reuters decided to include in its poll.

Reuters/Ipsos

 

Finally, we also checked the polling data of the latest McClatchy-Marist Poll to make sure we weren’t missing something.  And sure enough, their sample includes just a 5 point advantage for democrats…slightly larger than the 4 point gap measured by Pew but no where near the 11 point Reuters gap.

Polling Data

 

And that’s how you rig some polling data…

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Final Q2 GDP Comes At 1.4%: US Set To Grow At Slowest Pace Since Financial Crisis

While the second quarter is now ancient history and the debate is how much the predicted rebound in Q3 GDP will fade into Q4 which is set to begin in just three days, moments ago the BEA released its final revision for Q2 GDP, according to which real GDP increased 1.4% in the second quarter of 2016, 0.3 % higher than the “second” estimate released in August, and fractionally higher than the 1.3% expected. In the first quarter, real GDP rose 0.8 percent.

 

As we have reported previously, the increase in real GDP was more than accounted for by an increase in consumer spending which amounted to more than 200% of the bottom line annualized GDP print. Spending on nondurable goods increased, notably on food and beverage grocery items. Spending on durable goods increased, notably on recreational goods and vehicles. And spending on services increased,  notably on health care (thanks Obamacare) and on housing and  utilities.

The increase in consumer spending was offset by a decline in inventory investment. GDP less inventory investment (real final sales of domestic product) increased 2.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with 1.2 percent in the first quarter. Also partly offsetting contributions to real GDP growth in the second quarter, housing investment declined, as did state and local government spending.

 

Perhaps most notable was the data on corporate profits, which as expected, were down -0.6% in Q2, after increasing 3.4% in the first quarter. and have contracted for fifth time in past 6 quarters.  Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased 4.6% after increasing 7.4 percent.  Profits of domestic financial corporations increased 1.3 percent after increasing 1.9 percent. Profits from the rest of the world increased 10.3 percent after decreasing 6.8 percent. Over the last 4 quarters, corporate profits decreased 4.3 percent

Expect further margin compression on policy changes.

Putting the US economy data in context, over the last 12 months real GDP continues to drop, sliding to 1.28% even with the modest upward revision, and has been below 2% in the last three quarters.

Using the latest NY Fed forecasts, which as a reminder now expects just 2.3% annualized growth in Q3 and 1.2% Q4, down 0.5% each from the previous forecasts of 2.8% and 1.7%., the US is set to grow at just 1.4% in 2016, the slowest growth rate since the financial crisis.

 

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Jobless Claims Joke Of The Day

Initial jobless claims remain stuck at four decade lows (254k this week)… so where are all the jobs?

Manufacturing?

 

Services?

 

Or maybe these divergences will strike when the wrong person is elected in November?

And as a bonus chart – the last 2 weeks have seen the biggest collapse in continuing claims in 3 years to 16 year lows…

 

Seems just a little coincidental that just like during the lead up to the 2012 election, continuing claims suddenly collapse (magical jobs for a few million people?)

via http://ift.tt/2cDUI7N Tyler Durden