Student Arrested for Wearing Gorilla Mask to Black Lives Matter Rally, Claremont Cancels Speedo-Bikini Hike: Special College Edition P.M. Links

  • BikiniPolice arrested an East Tennessee University student who wore a gorilla mask to a Black Lives Matter rally. The student was handing out bananas and trying to provoke event participants (this was not, as I initially suspected, some kind of pro-Harambe thing). Note that the rally took place in the campus’s “free speech” area. According to video footage of the incident, the BLM folks left the student alone, but somebody else called the police. The student was charged with “civil rights intimidation,” which seems very concerning from a First Amendment perspective.
  • California Gov. Jerry Brown signs the so-called Brock Turner bill into law, creating mandatory minimums for sex crimes.
  • Mizzou suspended a fraternity because some members were suspected of yelling racial slurs at a group of black women. But the police report from the altercation suggests to me that the fraternity members didn’t actually do anything wrong, and some of the black women were themselves quite hostile.
  • Claremont calls off its annual Speedo / bikini hike because the event was deemed “non-inclusive” toward people who aren’t in good physical shape.
  • The University of Michigan’s pronoun policy has backfired in spectacular fashion.
  • Northern Michigan University backs down: students can discuss self-harm without fear of being disciplined.

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Weekend Reading: Back Where We Started

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In last weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the “round-trip” move of the market following the Fed’s latest announcement to NOT hike rates.

“It is not surprising the Fed once again failed to take action as their expectations for economic growth were once again lowered. In fact, as I have noted previously, the Federal Reserve are the worst economic forecasters on the planet.

 

As shown in the table/chart below, not only are the expectations for economic growth now the lowest on record, the Fed has given up on 2% growth for the economy with the long-run economic projections now at just 1.9%.”

fomc-economic-forecasts-092116

“This should surprise no one. The Federal Reserve has continued to hope for the last several years that extremely ‘accommodative’ monetary policy, and near zero interest rates, would spark stronger levels of economic activity leading to a rise in broad-based inflationary pressures. Unfortunately, this has yet to be the case.

 

With the Fed holding still on hiking rates, with a promise to now hike in December (**cough****bullshit****cough), traders came rushing back into the market pushing prices right back into the trading range of the last month.”

The chart below shows the “round-trip” from complacency, to panic, and back to complacency. 

sp500-vix-092916

Importantly, with the markets testing resistance below the bottom of the trading range in August, the issue becomes whether this bounce is a “sucker’s rally” or the beginning of the next leg higher. I continue to suspect the former as the deviation between prices and fundamentals continue to widen.

This idea is further supported by the following note from BofAML (via Zerohedge):

As BofA’s Savita Subramanian reports, over the last several years, we have observed an accelerating trend of flows out of active funds and into passive vehicles. Price sensitivity of investors to fees, coupled with poor performance trends, have conspired against active funds, and year-to-date flows out of active have reached a post-crisis high.

bofa-flows-4_0

“The current year outflows from active funds have now surpassed a record $200 billion, with the bulk of cash outflows shifting to much cheaper (and better performing) passive funds, though as BofA notes, flows have slowed since last year suggesting that there may be a broader cash outflow from the equity asset class, as increasingly more Americans retire and pull out of the market entirely.”

The last sentence goes to the heart of what I discussed this past week with respect to “baby boomers” and the “new secular bull market” thesis:

“Old people are living longer and young people are delaying marriage and children. This means fewer people paying into a social welfare system, while more or taking out.

 

This demographic problem is not going to be fixed anytime soon and has manifested itself in lower rates of household formations. More importantly, the drag from the elderly on the financial system is going to be a much bigger problem than most currently expect.”

The problem is two-fold.

  1. As an increasing number of individuals begin to extract capital from the market, there will be a rising headwind to the markets which is dependent on cash inflows for advances.
  2. As Tyler notes, the accelerating transition from active to passive management will end in tears, as passive management only works as long as the rising tide keeps lifting all boats.

As I have discussed previously, while passive indexing works while all prices are rising, the reverse is also true. The problem is that once prices begin to fall the previously “passive indexer” becomes an “active panic seller.” With the flood of money into “passive index” and “yield funds,” the tables are once again set for a dramatic and damaging ending.

Why do I say that? Because we have seen this occur repeatedly in the markets. In the late 90’s everyone was piling into Technology stocks. Heading into 2007, it was all about real estate. Today it is passive indexing and Robo-Advisors.

It is only near peaks in extended bull markets that logic is dismissed for the seemingly easiest trend to make money. Today is no different as the chart below shows the odds are stacked against substantial market gains from current levels.

sp500-marketupdate-092616-4

But, in the meantime, here is what I am reading this weekend.


Fed / Economy


Markets


Interesting Reads


“Acknowledge the complexity of the world and resist the impression that you easily understand it. It’s a basic fact of life that many things ‘everybody knows’ turn out to be wrong.” — Jim Rogers

via http://ift.tt/2dhQ4P0 Tyler Durden

Weekend Reading: Back Where We Started

Submitted by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

In last weekend’s newsletter, I discussed the “round-trip” move of the market following the Fed’s latest announcement to NOT hike rates.

“It is not surprising the Fed once again failed to take action as their expectations for economic growth were once again lowered. In fact, as I have noted previously, the Federal Reserve are the worst economic forecasters on the planet.

 

As shown in the table/chart below, not only are the expectations for economic growth now the lowest on record, the Fed has given up on 2% growth for the economy with the long-run economic projections now at just 1.9%.”

fomc-economic-forecasts-092116

“This should surprise no one. The Federal Reserve has continued to hope for the last several years that extremely ‘accommodative’ monetary policy, and near zero interest rates, would spark stronger levels of economic activity leading to a rise in broad-based inflationary pressures. Unfortunately, this has yet to be the case.

 

With the Fed holding still on hiking rates, with a promise to now hike in December (**cough****bullshit****cough), traders came rushing back into the market pushing prices right back into the trading range of the last month.”

The chart below shows the “round-trip” from complacency, to panic, and back to complacency. 

sp500-vix-092916

Importantly, with the markets testing resistance below the bottom of the trading range in August, the issue becomes whether this bounce is a “sucker’s rally” or the beginning of the next leg higher. I continue to suspect the former as the deviation between prices and fundamentals continue to widen.

This idea is further supported by the following note from BofAML (via Zerohedge):

As BofA’s Savita Subramanian reports, over the last several years, we have observed an accelerating trend of flows out of active funds and into passive vehicles. Price sensitivity of investors to fees, coupled with poor performance trends, have conspired against active funds, and year-to-date flows out of active have reached a post-crisis high.

bofa-flows-4_0

“The current year outflows from active funds have now surpassed a record $200 billion, with the bulk of cash outflows shifting to much cheaper (and better performing) passive funds, though as BofA notes, flows have slowed since last year suggesting that there may be a broader cash outflow from the equity asset class, as increasingly more Americans retire and pull out of the market entirely.”

The last sentence goes to the heart of what I discussed this past week with respect to “baby boomers” and the “new secular bull market” thesis:

“Old people are living longer and young people are delaying marriage and children. This means fewer people paying into a social welfare system, while more or taking out.

 

This demographic problem is not going to be fixed anytime soon and has manifested itself in lower rates of household formations. More importantly, the drag from the elderly on the financial system is going to be a much bigger problem than most currently expect.”

The problem is two-fold.

  1. As an increasing number of individuals begin to extract capital from the market, there will be a rising headwind to the markets which is dependent on cash inflows for advances.
  2. As Tyler notes, the accelerating transition from active to passive management will end in tears, as passive management only works as long as the rising tide keeps lifting all boats.

As I have discussed previously, while passive indexing works while all prices are rising, the reverse is also true. The problem is that once prices begin to fall the previously “passive indexer” becomes an “active panic seller.” With the flood of money into “passive index” and “yield funds,” the tables are once again set for a dramatic and damaging ending.

Why do I say that? Because we have seen this occur repeatedly in the markets. In the late 90’s everyone was piling into Technology stocks. Heading into 2007, it was all about real estate. Today it is passive indexing and Robo-Advisors.

It is only near peaks in extended bull markets that logic is dismissed for the seemingly easiest trend to make money. Today is no different as the chart below shows the odds are stacked against substantial market gains from current levels.

sp500-marketupdate-092616-4

But, in the meantime, here is what I am reading this weekend.


Fed / Economy


Markets


Interesting Reads


“Acknowledge the complexity of the world and resist the impression that you easily understand it. It’s a basic fact of life that many things ‘everybody knows’ turn out to be wrong.” — Jim Rogers

via http://ift.tt/2dhQ4P0 Tyler Durden

Friday A/V Club: A Short History of Phantom Clowns

The Great Clown Scare of 2016 began last month, and a larger set of creepy-clown sightings have been flaring up in different spots around the globe for a few years now. But rumors of malevolent jesters have circulated much longer than that. The size and intensity of the current clown panic may be unprecedented, but the phenomenon itself is not.

In the spring of 1981, according to Benjamin Radford’s recent book Bad Clowns, “police in Brookline, Massachusetts, issued an all-points bulletin asking officers to watch for a vehicle containing potential child abductors. The vehicle was distinctive: an older-model van with a broken headlight, no hubcaps, and ladders on the side. It was also full of clowns. Several children reported that clowns had tried to lure them into the dark van with promises of candy, and the sinister white-faced vagabonds were later reported lurking near Brookline’s Lawrence Elementary School.”

Similar reports soon popped up in other parts of the country—Omaha, Kansas City, Pittsburgh. A story in the Pittsburgh Press noted that in some of these cities, the rumors were coming from predominantly black parts of town, and the paper cited some speculation that they were a local reaction to the series of killings in Atlanta that seemed to be targeting African-American children. The Fortean writer Loren Coleman dubbed the mystery harlequinns “phantom clowns,” and the name stuck.

It probably wasn’t the first clown panic, and it certainly wasn’t the last. In 1982, a newspaper columnist in the Pittsburgh area was relaying “unfounded rumors of clown sightings in the vicinity of North Franklin Elementary School.” That might have just been an echo of the stories that had hit the same city a year earlier, but before long the rumors were appearing in other parts of America. In 1985, for instance, clown gangs were said to be stalking Phoenix. In 1991, kids in New Jersey started claiming that a man called Homey the Clown—yes, like the In Living Color character—was lurking through the streets, searching for kids to snatch. The Homey rumors prompted Jan Harold Brunvand, author of several books on urban legends, to ask, “How long before the phantom clowns of New Jersey start to show up in other communities?” Not long at all: Homey was soon terrorizing the kids of Chicago too. (When another wave of scary-clown sightings hit the Windy City in 2008, Chicagoans with long memories started reminiscing about Homey.)

Just as the tales of ’81 may have been linked to the Atlanta murders, the later legends often went hand-in-hand with larger panics. The ’80s were a time of heightened anxieties about missing children, and the kidnapper-clowns fit in easily with the Satanic cults and other malign forces allegedly chasing the country’s kids. In the ’90s, rumors in Central America combined the urban legend of the clowns with the urban legend that a conspiracy was seizing children to steal their organs. And of course some of these rumors were basically age-old folktales with clowns inserted into the villain role. If you’ve heard any of those myths about gypsies grabbing white children, then a lot of the clown lore will sound familiar.

None of these reports, in any of these cities, were ever substantiated. Always a Boogieman, never a John Wayne Gacy.

Is there anything different about the current scare? Well, there’s the sheer size of it. There’s the role the Internet has played in quickening and intensifying it. And there may be something else. Radford points out that in the early cases, “only young children reported seeing [the phantom clowns]; adults almost never encountered them.” But this time around, some twentysomething pranksters have been arrested for making false reports, and in one case for posing as one of the clowns. I can’t say for sure, but it’s possible that the kids are carrying less of the load this time.

Still, children have been doing the bulk of the storytelling. And that takes us to the A/V part of this post. You see, in addition to all those playground and Facebook rumors, there is a whole YouTube mini-genre of hoax creepy-clown videos made by kids.

Here’s one that predates the present panic. (It’s from 2010.) A couple of kids are chatting away near an overpass. One puts down his camera to answer the phone. The camera keeps running while he talks, and that just happens to be the moment a mysterious clown emerges from the tunnel below the bridge, then silently retreats:

As you’d expect, the genre has really taken off since the current clown scare began. From last week, for example, here is a boy “finding” a clown mask in the woods and pretending to freak out about it:

This next vid is unusual in that a parent participates in it. It’s part of a whole series of clips in which the family looks for clowns in the woods; I haven’t watched the whole sequence, but of what I’ve seen so far they haven’t discovered anything spookier than a footprint. There is a chance that the people producing it are sincere. There is also a chance that they’re building toward a final installment that’ll end with a neighbor jumping out in a clown suit:

Our final selection purports to show an actual clown attack. The young auteurs who made it have got that Blair Witch shaky-cam aesthetic down pat, but they haven’t embraced the Blair Witch idea of letting the monster lurk unseen. They also ignore another Hollywood notion—that if one of your pals is standing around looking bored, you should try to keep him out of your shot. That just makes it more great, of course. This one is definitely my favorite:

That last effort reminds me of an incident in Brunvand’s article: “One child, who later retracted his story, told police that a clown holding a machete in one hand and an Uzi machine gun in the other fired five shots at him before he drove him off with his bookbag.” (That must’ve been one hell of a bookbag.)

What do these videos show us? For one thing, pretty much everyone involved is clearly having fun. It’s easy to focus on the fear-filled side of a scare—that’s why we call ’em scares!—but surely one thing driving these little rumor-manias is the sheer pleasure of spreading a spooky story. The New Jersey kid who made up that Uzi yarn 25 years ago was probably having a blast too, at least up until the point where he was talking to skeptical cops instead of, say, some younger kids on the playground.

The videos also drive home how much of this comes down to children being children. Kids like to play pranks. Kids like to tell stories. Kids like to hear stories. Kids scare easily. Kids don’t always have well-honed bullshit filters. Kids eventually turn into grown-ups, and you know what? We don’t necessarily change that much in the process.

(For past editions of the Friday A/V Club, go here.)

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Rumor Rescues Deutsche From Banking Bloodbath But Gold Tops Stocks In September

Seriously…

 

Let's get this Deutsche Bank debacle out of the way first. A rumor – started by Jim Cramer, expanded by a number of twitterati, picked up by Bloomberg, then reported by AFP somehow managed to create a short squeeze rip higher in Deutsche ADRs…

 

Some context for the 'recovery'

 

But the yield curve wasn't supportive…

 

And CDS wasn't buying it…

 

And that was enough to spark a buying panic is US equities…

So, let's get back to the rest of the markets (and wait for the DOJ denial)

*  *  *

For Q3 Overall, Silver & Stocks lead Q3 performance as oil lags (but overall it was a subdued quarter)…

 

Nasdaq was the quarter's big winner, The Dow and S&P lagged…

 

Even as rate-hike odds soared…

 

Treasury yields were all up on the quarter, but we note a 14bps bear flattening in the curve

 

The USD Index ended Q3 down very modestly (-0.4%) with Yen strength offset by cable weakness…

 

Oil actually legged on the quarter with silver best…

*  *  *

For September, crude led but PMs outperformed stocks and bonds lagged…

 

Notably The Dow was red on the month and the S&P scrambled to try and breakeven but failed as Trannies soared in September…

 

Energy stocks outperformed in September as homebuilders and financials lagged…

 

Intersstingly, while the curve flattened markedly on the quarter, it steepened dramatically in September…

 

The USD Index drifted notably on the month, once again as cable weakness was trumped by Yen strength…

 

Copper and Crude outperformed in September, gold lagged…

 

*  *  *

Finally, on the week, today's bounce pulled most stocks into the green but Small Caps lagged (even though they outperformed today)…UGLY CLOSE

 

Futures show just how crazy this week was…

 

Banks managed to scramble back to unchanged on the week…

 

Nothing was stopping stocks today  not even a giant 8k block… which as @RockHowse explains was absorbed like a champ…

 

On the week, Treasuries were mixed with 2Y 1bps higher and 30Y 3bps lower…

 

The flatness of 2Y yields is reflected in the perfectly unchanged close of the USD index on the week… (mostly driven by DB's recovery and exodus from USD safe haven)

 

WTI Crude had a massive week – best in 2 months – gold and silver pumped and dumped today and copper ended the week green…

 

Jones Trading sums up the week…

US Equities are poised to close a touch higher on the week while Asia and Europe were generally lower. It was a decent week in terms of catalysts – we had OPEC’s “consultation” that yielded a production cap starting in November, a Presidential debate that yielded several memes and sound-bites, Deutsche Bank made headlines as impending fines by the US DoJ created questions around liquidity and capital. In the end – it all amounts to the S&P500 closing higher by 20bps – and flat for the month of September. It wasn’t really a macro-narrative shifting week – economic data continued to fall in-line and Central Bank speak didn’t do much to wow investors either. As we highlighted in the past, most market participants appear to be poised for a pull-back, yet this tape continues to move higher. It won’t be the first or last time that we prescribe to the idea that this market will continue on the path of most pain. In terms of technical – this market did struggle to break and hold above the 50-day MA this week. As we are writing this on Friday afternoon, the S&P500 is a couple of points above the 50-day MA – which is 2168. A few weeks ago we noted that we could likely find ourselves right back between 2150 and 2200 in short-order; this range will likely continue to hold.

Translated – no matter WTF happens, stocks inch higher or are rescued… because "wealth creation" and "election"

Charts: Bloomberg

Bonus Chart: Do you believe in 2016 GDP growth miracles?

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Body Cam Footage of Police Shooting of 6-Year-Old Released

Footage of the fatal police shooting of 6-year-old Jeremy Mardis in Louisiana in September 2015 at the end of a police pursuit was released this week as part of the evidentiary hearing—two of the cops involved were indicted on murder charges for the killing. You can watch the video below.

Michael Edmonson, the superintendent of Louisiana State Police, called the footage “the most disturbing thing I’ve seen.”

The marshals who shot at the car say they were unaware that a 6-year-old was in the car. CNN reports that the chase started when the marshals “witnessed an argument between a man and his girlfriend in front of a local bar.”

Both marshals also had previous records, with one of them having been indicted for aggravated rape and both named in a number of civil suits alleging a range of misconduct. The defense lawyer for at least one officer insists there will not be enough evidence to convict his client for the killing.

Police appear to have never provided an official reason for the chase in the first place, and the boy’s father, Christopher Few, was never charged in relation to any alleged wrongdoing that may have caused police to start the chase. CNN also reported that Few and one of the officers who killed his son had a previous relationship that investigators are proving.

While both marshals were indicted relatively quickly, the case, which involves white victims and non-white cops, illustrates the dangers of treating police violence as a problem purely or overwhelmingly about racial bias. Had Few not had his six-year-old in the car and the marshals managed to kill him, can there be much doubt that they would have fabricated a cause for the shooting if not for the entire interaction? Even with the six-year-old in the car, had police managed to kill the boy and the father, it’s unlikely the case would have went to trial, as police would have been free to fabricate a story.

The seemingly unchecked power police officers have to initiate interactions and to control the investigation in the aftermath of violence, along with a nearly total lack of accountability and transparency in many jurisdictions thanks to local laws, state laws, and often union contracts as well, means anyone can become a potential victim of police.

Prosecutors say the presence of body camera footage facilitated the indictment. Watch it below:

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Read How Chicago Police Use Asset Forfeiture as a Slush-Fund for Surveillance Equipment

One of the most aggravating aspects of civil asset forfeiture for anyone trying to study the subtle beast is just how little information is public about how much property police departments seize, who they seize it from, and where all that revenue goes.

Enter the Chicago Reader, which in an investigation published Thursday painstakingly pieced together how the Chicago Police Department’s narcotics unit uses civil forfeiture to create “what amounts to a secret budget—an off-the-books stream of income used to supplement the bureau’s public budget.”

According to the Reader, the CPD has seized a whopping $72 million in cash and property since 2009 using civil forfeiture, and used some of that money—without any form of public oversight—to purchase controversial surveillance equipment like cell-phone tracking devices.

Among the people caught in the civil forfeiture dragnet was 72-year-old Willie Mae Swansey, whose PT Cruiser was seized by the CPD after her son was caught driving it with 50 to 100 grams of heroin on him.

I filed a couple of the numerous public records requests involved in this investigation and found CPD using seized cars for undercover operations, but read the Reader to see how it all fits together:

The Reader has documented for the first time the full size and scope of CPD’s civil forfeiture program—how much money it brings in and how it spends its take. Through numerous Freedom of Information Act requests, the Reader, working with the Chicago-based transparency nonprofit Lucy Parsons Labs and the public records website MuckRock, obtained more than 1,000 pages of CPD documents—including the department’s deposit and expenditure ledgers, internal e-mails, and purchasing records—that offer an unprecedented look into how Chicago police and the Cook County state’s attorney’s office make lucrative use of civil asset forfeiture.

Since 2009, the year CPD began keeping electronic records of its forfeiture accounts, the department has brought in nearly $72 million in cash and assets through civil forfeiture, keeping nearly $47 million for itself and sending on almost $18 million to the Cook County state’s attorney’s office and almost $7.2 million to the Illinois State Police, according to our analysis of CPD records […]

The Reader found that CPD uses civil forfeiture funds to finance many of the day-to-day operations of its narcotics unit and to secretly purchase controversial surveillance equipment without public scrutiny or City Council oversight. (The Cook County state’s attorney’s office, for its part, clearly indicates narcotics-related forfeiture income in its annual budget. According to its 2016 budget, the office will use this year’s expected forfeiture revenue of $4.96 million to pay the salaries and benefits of the 41 full-time employees of its forfeiture unit.)

As I reported earlier this summer, the state of Illinois seized $72 million over the past couple of years, according to state police documents obtained by the Illinois ACLU through public records requests:

The list is full of digital scales, money counters, safes and guns (including AR-style rifles and shotguns). Among the seized vehicles are no less than six Cadillac Escalades, six Mercedes-Benz sedans, and a 2013 Triumph Bonneville Steve McQueen Edition motorcycle.

Electronics are an especially popular target for seizures by law enforcement, and the Illinois police are no different: Flatscreen TVs, especially of the 50″ and above variety, were common items, along with smart phones, iPads, digital cameras, laptops and video game systems, and Beats by Dre.

But while the documents shed some rare light on asset forfeiture in the state, it didn’t tell us, for example, whether the seizures were under civil or criminal procedure, or under what law the assets were seized.

The Institute for Justice, a libertarian public-interest law firm, gave the state’s asset forfeiture laws a “D-” grade for their lax property owner protections, low standards of evidence and expensive bond requirements to challenge seizures.

“Illinois’ reporting is better than some states in that they actually have reporting, but it’s far, far away from what we believe should be required,” Dick Carpenter, director for strategic research at the Institute for Justice, told me. “This is exactly the type of info we think should be reported to the public, but it’s very rare that any state collects this or makes it available.”

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Is America Still A Serious Nation?

Submitted by Patrick Buchanan via Buchanan.org,

Is America still a serious nation?

Consider. While U.S. elites were denouncing Donald Trump as unfit to serve for having compared Miss Universe 1996 to “Miss Piggy” of “The Muppets,” the World Trade Organization was validating the principal plank of his platform.

America’s allies are cheating and robbing her blind on trade.

According to the WTO, Britain, France, Spain, Germany and the EU pumped $22 billion in illegal subsidies into Airbus to swindle Boeing out of the sale of 375 commercial jets.

Subsidies to the A320 caused lost sales of 271 Boeing 737s, writes journalist Alan Boyle. Subsidies for planes in the twin-aisle market cost the sale of 50 Boeing 767s, 777s and 787s. And subsidies to the A380 cost Boeing the sale of 54 747s. These represent crippling losses for Boeing, a crown jewel of U.S. manufacturing and a critical component of our national defense.

Earlier, writes Boyle, the WTO ruled that, “without the subsidies, Airbus would not have existed … and there would be no Airbus aircraft on the market.”

In “The Great Betrayal” in 1998, I noted that in its first 25 years the socialist cartel called Airbus Industrie “sold 770 planes to 102 airlines but did not make a penny of profit.”

Richard Evans of British Aerospace explained: “Airbus is going to attack the Americans, including Boeing, until they bleed and scream.” And another executive said, “If Airbus has to give away planes, we will do it.”

When Europe’s taxpayers objected to the $26 billion in subsidies Airbus had gotten by 1990, German aerospace coordinator Erich Riedl was dismissive, “We don’t care about criticism from small-minded pencil-pushers.”

This is the voice of economic nationalism. Where is ours?

After this latest WTO ruling validating Boeing’s claims against Airbus, the Financial Times is babbling of the need for “free and fair” trade, warning against a trade war.

But is “trade war” not a fair description of what our NATO allies have been doing to us by subsidizing the cartel that helped bring down Lockheed and McDonnell-Douglas and now seeks to bring down Boeing?

Our companies built the planes that saved Europe in World War II and sheltered her in the Cold War. And Europe has been trying to kill those American companies.

Yet even as Europeans collude and cheat to capture America’s markets in passenger jets, Boeing itself, wrote Eamonn Fingleton in 2014, has been “consciously cooperating in its own demise.”

By Boeing’s own figures, writes Fingleton, in the building of its 787 Dreamliner, the world’s most advanced commercial jet, the “Japanese account for a stunning 35 percent of the 787’s overall manufacture, and that may be an underestimate.”

“Much of the rest of the plane is also made abroad … in Italy, Germany, South Korea, France, and the United Kingdom.”

The Dreamliner “flies on Mitsubishi wings. These are no ordinary wings: they constitute the first extensive use of carbon fiber in the wings of a full-size passenger plane. In the view of many experts, by outsourcing the wings Boeing has crossed a red line.”

Mitsubishi, recall, built the Zero, the premier fighter plane in the Pacific in the early years of World War II.

In a related matter, the U.S. merchandise trade deficit in July and August approached $60 billion each month, heading for a trade deficit in goods in 2016 of another $700 billion.

For an advanced economy like the United States, such deficits are milestones of national decline. We have been running them now for 40 years. But in the era of U.S. economic supremacy from 1870 to 1970, we always ran an annual trade surplus, selling far more abroad than Americans bought from abroad.

In the U.S. trade picture, even in the darkest of times, the brightest of categories has been commercial aircraft.

But to watch how we allow NATO allies we defend and protect getting away with decades of colluding and cheating, and then to watch Boeing transfer technology and outsource critical manufacturing to rivals like Japan, one must conclude that not only is the industrial decline of the United States inevitable, but America’s elites do not care.

As for our corporate chieftains, they seem accepting of what is coming when they are gone, so long as the salary increases, stock prices and options, severance packages, and profits remain high.

By increasingly relying upon foreign nations for our national needs, and by outsourcing production, we are outsourcing America’s future.

After Munich in 1938, Neville Chamberlain and Lord Halifax visited Italy to wean Mussolini away from Hitler. The Italian dictator observed his guests closely and remarked to his foreign minister:

“These men are not made of the same stuff as the Francis Drakes and the other magnificent adventurers who created the empire. These, after all, are the tired sons of a long line of rich men, and they will lose their empire.”

If the present regime is not replaced, something like that will be said of this generation of Americans.

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Citi Trader: “I Almost Feel Stupid Being Bearish “

A fun little comment from CitiFX’s Brent Donnelly, showing what central planning does to everyone, even the smart money.

Ursine

 

I am bearish. The European bank story, skyrocketing target balances out of Italy, widening EUR cross-currency basis and buying of CDS protection in Europe all add up to a compelling case for risk aversion. That said, I almost feel stupid being bearish given it has been such an incredibly popular and incredibly losing strategy for so long and there have been so many false starts over the past few years.

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Read How Chicago Police Use Asset Forfeiture as a Slush-Fund for Surveillance Equipment

One of the most aggravating aspects of civil asset forfeiture for anyone trying to study the subtle beast is just how little information is public about how much property police departments seize, who they seize it from, and where all that revenue goes.

Enter the Chicago Reader, which in an investigation published Thursday painstakingly pieced together how the Chicago Police Department’s narcotics unit uses civil forfeiture to create “what amounts to a secret budget—an off-the-books stream of income used to supplement the bureau’s public budget.”

According to the Reader, the CPD has seized a whopping $72 million in cash and property since 2009 using civil forfeiture, and used some of that money—without any form of public oversight—to purchase controversial surveillance equipment like cell-phone tracking devices.

Among the people caught in the civil forfeiture dragnet was 72-year-old Willie Mae Swansey, whose PT Cruiser was seized by the CPD after her son was caught driving it with 50 to 100 grams of heroin on him.

I filed a couple of the numerous public records requests involved in this investigation and found CPD using seized cars for undercover operations, but read the Reader to see how it all fits together:

The Reader has documented for the first time the full size and scope of CPD’s civil forfeiture program—how much money it brings in and how it spends its take. Through numerous Freedom of Information Act requests, the Reader, working with the Chicago-based transparency nonprofit Lucy Parsons Labs and the public records website MuckRock, obtained more than 1,000 pages of CPD documents—including the department’s deposit and expenditure ledgers, internal e-mails, and purchasing records—that offer an unprecedented look into how Chicago police and the Cook County state’s attorney’s office make lucrative use of civil asset forfeiture.

Since 2009, the year CPD began keeping electronic records of its forfeiture accounts, the department has brought in nearly $72 million in cash and assets through civil forfeiture, keeping nearly $47 million for itself and sending on almost $18 million to the Cook County state’s attorney’s office and almost $7.2 million to the Illinois State Police, according to our analysis of CPD records […]

The Reader found that CPD uses civil forfeiture funds to finance many of the day-to-day operations of its narcotics unit and to secretly purchase controversial surveillance equipment without public scrutiny or City Council oversight. (The Cook County state’s attorney’s office, for its part, clearly indicates narcotics-related forfeiture income in its annual budget. According to its 2016 budget, the office will use this year’s expected forfeiture revenue of $4.96 million to pay the salaries and benefits of the 41 full-time employees of its forfeiture unit.)

As I reported earlier this summer, the state of Illinois seized $72 million over the past couple of years, according to state police documents obtained by the Illinois ACLU through public records requests:

The list is full of digital scales, money counters, safes and guns (including AR-style rifles and shotguns). Among the seized vehicles are no less than six Cadillac Escalades, six Mercedes-Benz sedans, and a 2013 Triumph Bonneville Steve McQueen Edition motorcycle.

Electronics are an especially popular target for seizures by law enforcement, and the Illinois police are no different: Flatscreen TVs, especially of the 50″ and above variety, were common items, along with smart phones, iPads, digital cameras, laptops and video game systems, and Beats by Dre.

But while the documents shed some rare light on asset forfeiture in the state, it didn’t tell us, for example, whether the seizures were under civil or criminal procedure, or under what law the assets were seized.

The Institute for Justice, a libertarian public-interest law firm, gave the state’s asset forfeiture laws a “D-” grade for their lax property owner protections, low standards of evidence and expensive bond requirements to challenge seizures.

“Illinois’ reporting is better than some states in that they actually have reporting, but it’s far, far away from what we believe should be required,” Dick Carpenter, director for strategic research at the Institute for Justice, told me. “This is exactly the type of info we think should be reported to the public, but it’s very rare that any state collects this or makes it available.”

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