Month: September 2016

OilPECalypse Sparks Stock-Buying Panic

Something is up… everyone and their pet rabbit was speaking today (and there's more tomorrow)

 

More crappy macro data today… but all that mattered was Yellen never screwed up totally, Deutsche Bank didn't actually declare bankruptcy, and 'sources' said some short-squeeze-creating statements in Algiers…

 

A big gasoline build (DOE data) sparked RBOB/WTI selling at 1030ET but as Europe closed the USD turned around and then "sources" from Algiers sparked buying panic in crude… which then took out stops, dragged stocks and bond yields higher… before OPEC headlines late on faded the gains…

 

While some other sectors gained, the big move was in the Energy Sector….

 

Small Caps and The Dow outperformed on the day and Nasdaq lagged…(notice the panic buying as Nasdaq dared to go red late on…

 

Notably Small Cap remains red on the week despite panic squeeze efforts late on…

 

VIX was stomped back down to a 12 handle, filling the gap from Friday's close…

 

Treasury yields ended the day up around 1bps across the curve as early buying gave way to kneejerk selling as OPEC headlines hit…

 

Oil's gains sparked panic-buying in HYG (high yield bond ETF), sending it to 13- month highs…

 

The USD Index slid from the European close (back to unch on the week) with CAD/AUD strength (on oil's surge) helping to take the dollar lower…

 

Of course, crude dominated commodity-land with copper up also and OPMs flat…

 

Some context for the WTI move – not all that impressive really…

 

But once again – it slooks like major hedging being done into this spike in oil prices…

 

Charts: Bloomberg

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Why Even Racists Need The Freedom To Speak

Submitted by TJ Brown via The Foundation for Economic Education,

Until recently, American political culture settled into a comfortable middle ground on matters of race. People knew what to say and how to say it, more or less. It was all very polite. Everyone obeyed the rules. This way you could stay out of trouble and avoid one of the most devastating accusations that could derail your career: the claim that you said something racist. If the claim sticks, there is no forgiveness; there is only a lifetime of suffering.

Well, that polite truce was never a consensus; it was a coverup. And it is over. The proof is everywhere in evidence, not just among the Internet trolls who proclaim themselves champions of the white race.

Last week, I decided to attend my first-ever Black Lives Matter protest. This protest was in my home city of Atlanta. It was titled “Atlanta Silent Protest” and held downtown at Lenox Mall and later at Peachtree Center station next to the Atlanta detention center. It was, shall I say, an interesting experience. I won’t chalk this up as representative of the entire movement, but this one in particular was without a doubt a black supremacist operation.

Everything was focused on devaluation of non-black aspects of society. There were accusations of black police officers being race traitors, and chilling calls for boycotts on non-black businesses and community ostracism of Korean shop owners and white residential occupants. During the protest, they even physically removed non-black (specifically white) allies from the support circle. White people had to migrate to the sidelines, because…I guess that’s how you help heal race relations.

But even though I was not really in support of their (frankly, racist) demands and even less so of their activism tactics (blocking traffic is stupid), I still managed to have a discussion with them. Expressing why I believe collective black investment in industry would have a much more effective influence in balancing positions of power of black communities compared to collective black protest of capitalist enterprise.

I don’t know if I would say it was mutually productive, but it’s good to hear these ideas firsthand without the fearful cloak of political correctness.

Let Everyone Speak

So, yes, racism is finding it’s way back into public discussion. And being a black man, you may find it strange that I’d say this, but it is better if ideas can be expressed rather than be suppressed.

Racial supremacists for a long time have been a taboo demographic among mainstream political discourse. In part, their absence was due to the lack of market demand for their opinions. But a much larger contributing factor was that they have been the target of ideological sanctions which have barred them from academic institutions, political office, and even private clubs and companies. The activists in Black Lives Matter feel this, and so do many white people.

The White Supremacists Too

In a similar way, the white supremacists or white nationalists have found a new home in what is known as the Alt-Right. To be sure, I’m not trying to strawman the Alt-Right, and I grant  many of its mainstream supporters believe in cultural superiority rather than racial superiority. But there are definitely some elements within the movement that advocate public policy intended to ensure racial Aryan purity and eugenics via state operations.

The other day I actually called into an Alt-Right webcast called The Radical Agenda. It is a provocative, adult-rated show discussing current politics, national socialism, “race realism,” anti-leftism and other right traditionalist ideas in an intentionally controversial format. We briefly discussed the actions of advocating white nationalism and why the host feels discrimination based on genetic heritage is a necessary tactic to preserve the core of the Western idea of civilization.

Contrary to what you might have assumed, it wasn’t a back and forth throwing of racial slurs and demeaning epithets. Again, I wouldn’t necessarily say it was particularly productive either, but it was a rational exchange of ideas.

Think of it: a black individualist libertarian had a respectful exchange with a white nationalist supremacist. This has got to be a good thing. For so long we’ve been told to avoid these people because they’re guilty of wrongthink and bad overall. But this isn’t elementary school. Anyone who’s interested in true intellectual pursuit shouldn’t be afraid of unorthodox engagements. You shouldn’t be afraid of talking to “bad people” or unpopular schools of thought.

Racists Need Free Speech as Much as Anyone

We all know that racism exists. As a collectivist and usually statist perspective, it is an ideology that made a huge showing in the course of the last hundred years, often with violent and devastating consequences. If we wish to avoid that fate again, it is in all our interests to discover why these people hold their racist views.

For a long time, these opinions have been relegated to evening Klan meetups in rural dive bars or radical African-American studies classes. We’ve enacted a quasi-probationary status against them, and this doesn’t help further intellectual development in society.

Racists are here; they’re in our lives on a day to day basis. Many say that racism is a driving force of politics today, and increasingly influential in social media, commerce, and government. But so long as we prevent them from being able to express (not execute, but express) their ideological conclusions and explanations for holding them, we’re doing ourselves a disservice.

Free speech is essential to freedom itself.

This may be difficult to accept, but in order to heal race relations, or at the very least get a proper understanding of why they’re so fractured, racist ideas need to be a part of the discussion. Banning accounts and passing suppressive laws against problematic speech won’t help us. Pretending everything is okay in an artificial echochamber of multicultural utopian cognizance doesn’t change the world we constantly complain about. It only shields us from uncomfortable truths that we may need to realize about ourselves and our fellow human beings.

* * *

Taleed J. Brown hosts the popular YouTube channel "That Guy T".

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General Collateral Rate Surges To Highest Level In 7 Years

In what may be an indication of a major collateral shortage, but most likely is simply a case of quarter-end “window dressing”, the overnight general collateral rate soared to 0.82% this morning, its highest print in nearly seven years, and roughly where it would trade if the Fed had hiked in September. GC soared to 0.85% yesterday afternoon yesterday after opening at around 0.68%.

As SMRA points out, the GC rate often spikes as quarter end approaches. The early morning fed funds rate is at 0.40% this morning, unchanged from 0.40% yesterday. Both the effective fed funds rate and overnight bank funding rate were in line with the fed funds rate at 0.40% on Monday, unchanged from the prior couple weeks.

It wasn’t just general collateral surging. As the Fed announced eariler today, in today’s fixed-rate reverse repo, 59 counterparties parked $272.3bn in cash in exchange for with the Fed in what by Sept 30 – or quarter end – will likely be the highest reverse repo use of the year by the final day of Q3 as the cumulative totals typically peak on the last day of the month and, in this case, quarter.

This is how Wedbush’s Scott Skyrm explains the surge in both GC and RRP:

On a typical quarter-end, there’s funding pressure driving Repo rates higher and a decreased supply of “specials,” making it harder (more expensive) to cover shorts. In this pre-quarter-end period, there’s only been funding pressure. This leads me to believe the current situation is driven solely by investor cash leaving the market (and going into the RRP).

 

So here’s my interpretation of what’s going on: Banks cut back on their balance sheets more aggressively for the quarter-end beginning last week. Cash investors, who normally send much of their cash into the Repo market, were forced into the RRP. As each day went by, more cash was pushed into the RRP. Less investor cash in the market with the same amount of collateral means Repo rates move higher and thus the reason for the funding spikes beginning yesterday.

Curiously the spike today takes place on the same day 3M Libor had an unexpected, and sharp drop, falling to 0.8377% vs 0.8538%, the largest decline since June 24.  According to CA, while easing of worries about Deutsche Bank may be abating some concerns about financial stress, helping FRA-OIS spreads tighten, the reasons behind the lower libor are “less clear.”

We expect they will become more clear after quarter end when the window dressing overhang is removed. If these repo, GC and funding market abberations persists into Q4, then some more probing questions will have to be asked. For now, however, we like everyone else, can only observe the strange occurences in the markets without an ability to attribute causality aside from saying that this is what happens in a centrally-planned market.

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As Deutsche Bank Implodes, The ECB Is Making A “Strategic” Hire…

With Deutsche Bank crashing and burning for the second time in 2016, with its stock taking out all time lows and CDS spiking to record levels not seen even during the financial crisis, the ECB – which earlier denied its policies are at fault for the German lender’s woes – has realized that in addition to bond buyers (if not so much sellers), it needs to beef up its staffing in one critical area: banking supervision.

In a very ironic job posting announced on the ECB’s twitter feed, the ECB announced a job alert according to which it is now (or, perhaps at long last) hiring a banking supervision analyst.

While the ECB did not explicitly name Deutsche Bank in the posting, it detailed what the central bank is looking for in a qualfied candidate, one which the ECB probably should have hired years ago, as follows:

Banking Supervision Analyst

Functional area: Micro-Prudential Supervision III

Function: The European Central Bank (ECB) is seeking professionals with experience in the prudential supervision of credit institutions, in supervisory policies, standards and principles, and/or in financial policy development with a supervisory authority, commercial bank or related consulting services, to fill the position of Supervision Analyst within its Directorate General Microprudential Supervision III (DG/MS III), in the Analysis and Methodological Support Division.

The main tasks of the Analysis and Methodological Support Division include: establishing and updating methodologies for risk assessment systems and supervisory review processes for less significant institutions, as well as monitoring the risk assessments of these institutions carried out by national competent authorities (NCAs) and identifying and collecting relevant information from NCAs; developing tools for carrying out quantitative assessments of idiosyncratic and systemic risks and vulnerabilities, e.g. early warning systems and stress tests; conducting thematic reviews of broader non-institutional or sectoral risk developments; and defining the supervisory reporting requirements for less significant institutions, implementing reporting standards and data processing tools, and adapting the IT tools for supervision to the context of less significant institutions.

The successful applicant will be entrusted with the following main tasks:

  • supporting the adaptation of IT tools for supervision to the context of less significant institutions;
  • supporting the general and sectoral oversight of the supervision of less significant institutions with detailed analyses;
  • contributing to the analysis of technical IT project requirements and of users’ prioritisation;
  • developing and implementing plans for communicating to users and organising and implementing methods to ensure system knowledge among users increases;
  • fostering user satisfaction by contributing to and supporting the development, conduct and analysis of end-user surveys;
  • providing application support to end users;
  • assisting with data collection and the production of tables and charts for reports.

Qualifications and experience:

Applicants must have the following knowledge and competencies:

  • a bachelor’s degree in a relevant field (e.g. IT, economics, finance, engineering, business administration) or at least four years of relevant professional experience;
  • ideally, two years of professional experience (or six years or more in the absence of a bachelor’s degree, as mentioned above) in banking supervision, financial services (including in consulting services in the context of financial services governance and advisory control) or IT project management;
  • an advanced-level command of English with proven drafting ability;
  • an intermediate-level command of at least one other official language of the EU;
  • a good knowledge of the working methods of the Eurosystem and the European System of Central Banks and/or other relevant European and international fora would be an asset;
  • experience in data management and IT projects would be an asset;
  • supervisory knowledge would be an asset;
  • a working knowledge of MS Office, such as Word, Excel and PowerPoint;
  • knowledge of document management systems such as OpenText Livelink would be an asset.

Competencies:

  • The successful candidate will have the following behavioural competencies:
  • generates agreed results within tight time frames; uses rigorous logic and comprehensive processes in order to solve difficult problems;
  • examines issues critically and adopts relevant approaches geared towards successful business solutions; breaks things down into their constituent parts to determine cause-and-effect relationships;
  • makes improvements to service on the basis of feedback and has established methods of improving quality;
  • takes the initiative in improving policies, processes and products;
  • establishes and maintains cooperative relationships with staff and management at all levels, both inside and outside the organisation;
  • engages others both directly and indirectly in order to communicate ideas and implement the most suitable approach;
  • shares information and supports team members in the achievement of common goals;
  • manages multiple assignments and tracks progress on numerous processes simultaneously;
  • understands who his/her clients are and what their expectations are; ensures timely responses in order to serve clients.

Further Information:

Three-year fixed-term contract, with possible conversion to a contract of indefinite duration subject to individual performance and organisational needs.

To further enhance the diversity of its workforce, the ECB particularly encourages applications from female candidates.

The selection committee may place suitable candidates on a reserve list, from which candidates may be appointed to similar positions in the same or another business area. It may also be decided to fill the position(s) advertised in this vacancy notice with a suitable candidate or candidates from the reserve list resulting from a recruitment procedure for a similar position. Candidates will be informed accordingly if this happens.

How to apply:

Applications are to be made in English and submitted using our online application form. An “Applicants’ Guide” can be downloaded from our recruitment pages.

The recruitment process may include a pre-screening exercise, a written exercise, a presentation and interviews.

Further information on the ECB’s conditions of employment for fixed-term positions can be found at http://ift.tt/2dDHSLM.

Applications are accepted from nationals of Member States of the European Union.

The requirements laid down in the vacancy notice must be met by the closing date for applications.

This vacancy notice may be used to fill the same position again, or similar positions, within 12 months of the selection decision.

This position has been allocated to salary band: E/F

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Yet Another Health Insurer Scales Back Its Participation in Obamacare

At the end of last month, Tennessee Insurance Commissioner Julie McPeak—the state’s top insurance regulator—warned that the state’s Obamacare exchange was “very near collapse.”

At the beginning of the summer, two of the insurance carriers operating in the state exchanges, Cigna and Humana, had filed for rate increases of 23 and 29 percent, respectively. But after those requests were put in, both companies returned to the state and asked to re-file for even higher rates—with Cigna requesting a 46 percent bump, and Humana requesting a 44 percent increase. Those revised requests were eventually granted, with McPeak saying that she feared that the two insurers would pull out of the exchange system set up under the health law.

At the time, the state had only one insurer operating throughout the state: BlueCross BlueShield of Tennessee (BCBST), which had requested and won a 62 percent rate hike.

But even that, apparently, was not enough: This week, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Tennessee announced that it will exit the state’s largest markets: For 2017, the insurer will no longer offer exchange coverage for Nashville, Knoxville, and Memphis.

The move means that about 130,000 people in the state will lose their current insurance plans. Although every county will still have at least one insurance option through the exchange system, the move means that instead of 57 counties with just one exchange-based insurer, 72 counties of the state’s 95 counties will be served by just one carrier, the Tennessean reports.

BCBST isn’t the first insurer to back away from the health law’s exchanges. BlueCross BlueShield insurers have scaled back participation in Minnesota, Arizona, and Nebraska. Aetna said last month that it would cease selling on the exchanges in 11 of the 15 states in which it had been operating. UnitedHealth also announced this year that it would be pulling out of exchanges in 26 states, including Tennessee, where it had sold in every county.

In every case, the reason continues to be the same: The insurers are losing money on the exchange business. BCBST, for example, said it was facing a projected $500 million loss. That’s just not sustainable.

Obamacare was supposed to create a marketplace where insurers would want to compete for business. But in a lot of states and counties, it turns out there won’t be any competition, and lots of insurers won’t be doing any business at all.

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LeBron James: Police Brutality a ‘Scary Ass Situation’ and ‘All Lives Do Matter’

LeBron James was asked at this week’s NBA media day whether he would join San Francisco 49ers second-string quarterback Colin Kaepernick and other athletes in sitting for the national anthem as a protest against police brutality.

“First of all, I’m all in favor of anyone, athlete or non-athlete being able to express what they believe in in a peaceful manner,” James, a member of the championship-winning Cleveland Cavaliers told the press. “Standing for the national anthem is something I will do, that’s who I am that’s what I believe in, but that doesn’t mean I don’t respect and don’t agree with what Colin Kaepernick is doing.”

James said he didn’t like the negative attention Kaepernick was getting from “some people,” saying his protest was the most peaceful he had seen, and that he didn’t ask anyone else to join him.

Later at the same presser, James was asked about the opening of this year’s ESPY awards, where James was joined by three other basketball players to urge athletes to be more socially active. James told other athletes they had to “go back to our communities, invest our time, our resources, help rebuild them, help strengthen them, help change them.” Last week, the NBA sent a memo to tell players to contact the league and union officials about coming up with ways to create “positive change” in their community.

“We’re not politicians, so we weren’t up there saying America is bad and things of that nature,” James explained at this week’s press conference, “that’s not our position, because America has done so many great things for all of us.” James said his and the other players’ intentions at the ESPYs was to “continue the conversation” and that the league’s memo was a success that came out of that.

In talking about police brutality, James mentioned his own children, and talked about his oldest son, who is 12. “I look at my son being four years removed from driving his own car and being able to leave the house on his own,” James said, “and it’s a scary thought right now to think that if my son gets pulled over, and you tell your kids if you just comply and you just listen to the police they will be respectful and things will work itself out and you see these videos that continue to come out.”

“It’s a scary ass situation,” James continued, “that if my son calls me and says he’s been pulled over, that I’m not that confident that things are going to go well, and my son is going to return home.

James insisted neither he nor anyone else had all the answers, and that’s why he wanted “the conversation to continue to keep going.”

“Because I’m not up here saying that all police are bad, because they’re not, I’m not up here saying that all kids are greats and all adults are great because they’re not,” James explained, “but at the same time all lives do matter and it’s not just black or white, it’s not that, it’s everyone, it’s tough being a parent right now, when you have a pre-teen, but the conversation is continued from the ESPYs and that’s definitely a good thing.”

In December of 2014, LeBron James joined several other NBA players in wearing “I can’t breathe” t-shirts to protest the killing of Eric Garner by police in New York City.

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California Sanctions Wells Fargo – Suspends Up To $2 Trillion Banking Relationship For Next 12 Months

Treasurer John Chiang says in letter to Wells Fargo’s John Stumpf, board that he’s ordered suspension of WFC’s participation in “its most highly profitable business relationships” with California.

Bloomberg reports:

The California Treasurer oversees ~$2t in annual state banking transactions; manages $75b investment pool; is largest U.S. issuer of municipal debt

  • Sanctions include:
    • Suspending investments by Treasurer’s office in all WFC securities
    • Suspending using WFC as broker-dealer for purchasing investments
    • Suspending WFC as managing underwriter on negotiated sales of Calif. state bonds (where Treasurer appoints underwriter)
  • Sanctions take effect immediately, will remain in place for next 12 months
    • WFC may face tougher sanctions “up to and including complete and permanent severance of all ties” with Treasurer’s Office if WFC fails to demonstrate compliance with consent orders or “evidence surfaces” has engaged in same behavior
  • Calif. will work with Calpers, Calstrs to pursue governance reforms ensuring “this type of behavior and systemic corruption” doesn’t reoccur
    • Notes the 2 pension systems have >$2.3b invested in WFC fixed income securities, equity
  • Chiang will seek:
    • Separation of CEO/chair positions
    • Appointment of consumer ombudsman
    • Development of anonymous ethics reporting process/whistleblower protection program
    • Review of WFC compensation practices
    • Clawbacks
  • WFC admission thousands of bank employees opened >2m fraudulent consumer accounts is “a legal and ethical outrage that cannot go unpunished": Chiang
    • ‘‘How can I continue to entrust the public’s money to an organization which has shown such little regard for the legions of Californians who have placed their financial well-being in its care?”

It appears Rounds 1 and 2 have gone to Elizabeth Warren.

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LeBron James: Police Brutality a ‘Scary Ass Situation’ and ‘All Lives Do Matter’

LeBron James was asked at this week’s NBA media day whether he would join San Francisco 49ers second-string quarterback Colin Kaepernick and other athletes in sitting for the national anthem as a protest against police brutality.

“First of all, I’m all in favor of anyone, athlete or non-athlete being able to express what they believe in in a peaceful manner,” James, a member of the championship-winning Cleveland Cavaliers told the press. “Standing for the national anthem is something I will do, that’s who I am that’s what I believe in, but that doesn’t mean I don’t respect and don’t agree with what Colin Kaepernick is doing.”

James said he didn’t like the negative attention Kaepernick was getting from “some people,” saying his protest was the most peaceful he had seen, and that he didn’t ask anyone else to join him.

Later at the same presser, James was asked about the opening of this year’s ESPY awards, where James was joined by three other basketball players to urge athletes to be more socially active. James told other athletes they had to “go back to our communities, invest our time, our resources, help rebuild them, help strengthen them, help change them.” Last week, the NBA sent a memo to tell players to contact the league and union officials about coming up with ways to create “positive change” in their community.

“We’re not politicians, so we weren’t up there saying America is bad and things of that nature,” James explained at this week’s press conference, “that’s not our position, because America has done so many great things for all of us.” James said his and the other players’ intentions at the ESPYs was to “continue the conversation” and that the league’s memo was a success that came out of that.

In talking about police brutality, James mentioned his own children, and talked about his oldest son, who is 12. “I look at my son being four years removed from driving his own car and being able to leave the house on his own,” James said, “and it’s a scary thought right now to think that if my son gets pulled over, and you tell your kids if you just comply and you just listen to the police they will be respectful and things will work itself out and you see these videos that continue to come out.”

“It’s a scary ass situation,” James continued, “that if my son calls me and says he’s been pulled over, that I’m not that confident that things are going to go well, and my son is going to return home.

James insisted neither he nor anyone else had all the answers, and that’s why he wanted “the conversation to continue to keep going.”

“Because I’m not up here saying that all police are bad, because they’re not, I’m not up here saying that all kids are greats and all adults are great because they’re not,” James explained, “but at the same time all lives do matter and it’s not just black or white, it’s not that, it’s everyone, it’s tough being a parent right now, when you have a pre-teen, but the conversation is continued from the ESPYs and that’s definitely a good thing.”

In December of 2014, LeBron James joined several other NBA players in wearing “I can’t breathe” t-shirts to protest the killing of Eric Garner by police in New York City.

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LeBron James: Police Brutality a ‘Scary Ass Situation’ and ‘All Lives Do Matter’

LeBron James was asked at this week’s NBA media day whether he would join San Francisco 49ers second-string quarterback Colin Kaepernick and other athletes in sitting for the national anthem as a protest against police brutality.

“First of all, I’m all in favor of anyone, athlete or non-athlete being able to express what they believe in in a peaceful manner,” James, a member of the championship-winning Cleveland Cavaliers told the press. “Standing for the national anthem is something I will do, that’s who I am that’s what I believe in, but that doesn’t mean I don’t respect and don’t agree with what Colin Kaepernick is doing.”

James said he didn’t like the negative attention Kaepernick was getting from “some people,” saying his protest was the most peaceful he had seen, and that he didn’t ask anyone else to join him.

Later at the same presser, James was asked about the opening of this year’s ESPY awards, where James was joined by three other basketball players to urge athletes to be more socially active. James told other athletes they had to “go back to our communities, invest our time, our resources, help rebuild them, help strengthen them, help change them.” Last week, the NBA sent a memo to tell players to contact the league and union officials about coming up with ways to create “positive change” in their community.

“We’re not politicians, so we weren’t up there saying America is bad and things of that nature,” James explained at this week’s press conference, “that’s not our position, because America has done so many great things for all of us.” James said his and the other players’ intentions at the ESPYs was to “continue the conversation” and that the league’s memo was a success that came out of that.

In talking about police brutality, James mentioned his own children, and talked about his oldest son, who is 12. “I look at my son being four years removed from driving his own car and being able to leave the house on his own,” James said, “and it’s a scary thought right now to think that if my son gets pulled over, and you tell your kids if you just comply and you just listen to the police they will be respectful and things will work itself out and you see these videos that continue to come out.”

“It’s a scary ass situation,” James continued, “that if my son calls me and says he’s been pulled over, that I’m not that confident that things are going to go well, and my son is going to return home.

James insisted neither he nor anyone else had all the answers, and that’s why he wanted “the conversation to continue to keep going.”

“Because I’m not up here saying that all police are bad, because they’re not, I’m not up here saying that all kids are greats and all adults are great because they’re not,” James explained, “but at the same time all lives do matter and it’s not just black or white, it’s not that, it’s everyone, it’s tough being a parent right now, when you have a pre-teen, but the conversation is continued from the ESPYs and that’s definitely a good thing.”

In December of 2014, LeBron James joined several other NBA players in wearing “I can’t breathe” t-shirts to protest the killing of Eric Garner by police in New York City.

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