Military Veteran Bonus Scandal Might Be Much Worse Than Initially Reported

Submitted by Everett Numbers via TheAntiMedia.org,

The Pentagon and Congress are both promising quick fixes to the scandal surrounding excessive National Guard bonus payments to soldiers. However, the nearly 10,000 California Guard soldiers involved may be just the tip of the iceberg.

The U.S. military prompted outrage and Congress’ attention over the weekend when news spread that it was demanding thousands of California National Guard service members pay back erroneous or fraudulent bonuses. Those payments were offered when it became difficult to recruit enough soldiers for enlistment or reenlistment during the most active years of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars.

Los Angeles Times first reported Saturday that the California Guard had sent payback notices to almost 10,000 guard members.

On Wednesday, Department of Defense Secretary Ash Carter paused all further repayment requests from the Pentagon.

“While some soldiers knew or should have known they were ineligible for benefits they were claiming, many others did not,” Carter said in a statement.

 

“About 2,000 have been asked, in keeping with the law, to repay erroneous payments,” the defense secretary explained, adding that the Pentagon’s “established process” had mixed results. Stating it has already “granted relief” to hundreds of members, Carter continued, “that process has simply moved too slowly and in some cases imposed unreasonable burdens on service members.”

While the change of plans is welcomed among servicemen who refused to pay the bonuses back, the White House is not sure how the Pentagon will handle those whodecided to pay them back anyway out of a sense of duty.”

Two years ago, the Los Angeles Times reported, the California National Guard proposed a legislative fix, adding “legislative language related to ‘service-member debt relief equity.’” According to the document obtained by Politico, the National Guard suggested the change because “[t]housands of soldiers have inadvertently incurred debt, through no fault of their own, because of faulty Army recruiting or accounting practices and malicious individuals.”

Despite bringing up the difficulties service members had been going through at the time, the National Guard’s list of priorities for the fiscal 2015 NDAA makes no mention of the Pentagon’s bonus recoupment policy.

To add fuel to the fire, the initial report published by the Los Angeles Times only focused on the audit targeting California soldiers who were promised bonuses to re-enlist, leaving out soldiers who may have gone through the same predicament in the other 49 states.

In the period between 2000 and 2008, the Defense Department “went from spending $891 million for selective re-enlistment bonuses to spending $1.4 billion on them.” If only 10,000 California veterans were promised bonuses to go back to war, we’re left wondering whether the new policy will impact veterans outside of the Golden State.

Ultimately, we will provide for a process that puts as little burden as possible on any soldier who received an improper payment through no fault of his or her own,” Carter promised, adding that “our important obligation to the taxpayer” will also be respected.

In 2010, the Sacramento Bee reported that the California National Guard had an incentive program in place that had misspent as much as $100 million. At the time, the National Guard’s irresponsible spending was deemed “war profiteering.” But ever since the scandal broke, lower-ranking service members have stepped up, claiming to suffer due to the Pentagon’s decision to retrieve their bonuses.

Have other service members across the country been the victims of the same reenlistment effort, and if so, are others struggling to make sense of this issue, as well?

According to the Rand Corporation, “[m]ore than 1.5 million military personnel were deployed to Iraq and Afghanistan between 2002 and 2007, many of them more than once.” The report adds that the U.S. Department of Defense increased retention by expanding “and [increasing] generosity of reenlistment bonuses.” It cites the Army as the group whose “number of occupations eligible for a bonus as well as the dollar amount of bonuses” were raised more than any other service.

In 2005, USA Today reported that “[s]oldiers are re-enlisting at rates ahead of the Army’s targets, even as overall recruiting is suffering after two years of the Iraq war.”

The report added that between October 1 and June of that year, the Army had “re-enlisted 53,120 soldiers, 6% ahead of its goal of about 50,000 for that period,” thanks to “unprecedented cash bonuses.”

At the time, there were about 105,000 Army soldiers in Iraq, including National Guard and Reserve members. The fact reenlistment efforts had persuaded 53,120 soldiers to sign up by 2005 may prove that the 10,000 California service members figure may just be scratching the surface of this story.

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In “Shocking Defeat” For Prosecutors, Anti-Government Militant Leader Ammon Bundy And Six Followers Acquited

In a shocking verdict, seven anti-government militants including Ammon Bundy, were acquitted in federal court of conspiracy charges stemming from their role in the armed takeover of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge in Oregon last winter in protest of the Bureau of Land Management’s treatment of the Hammond Family, as supporters cheered outside the courthouse.

Ammon Bundy, Shawna Cox, David Lee Fry, Jeff Wayne Banta, Neil Wampler and Kenneth Medenbach were found not guilty on all counts, however the court could not reach a verdict on Ryan Bundy regarding a theft charge.

clockwise from top left: Ryan Bundy, Ammon Bundy, Brian Cavalier, Peter Santilli,
Shawna Cox, Ryan Payne and Joseph O’Shaughnessy,

As Intellihub adds, the group’s leader Ammon Bundy will remain in custody to later stand trial for another high-profile standoff which took place at the Bundy Ranch in Nevada where members of militia and the BLM pointed loaded rifles at each other.

The outcome marked a stinging defeat for federal prosecutors and law enforcement in a trial the defendants sought to turn into a pulpit for airing their opposition to U.S. government control over millions of acres of public lands in the West. Oregon Governor Kate Brown (D), who ordered the FBI to act swiftly during the occupation, was also unhappy with the verdict, nor were other local officials, like Harney County Sheriff Dave Ward who some have accused of violating the U.S. Constitution during the occupation.

Bundy and others, including his brother and co-defendant Ryan Bundy, cast the 41-day occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge as a patriotic act of civil disobedience. Prosecutors called it a lawless scheme to seize federal property by force.

The court sided with the defendants.

Jubilant supporters of the Bundys thronged the courthouse after the verdict, hailing the trial’s outcome as vindication of a political ideology that is profoundly distrustful of federal authority and challenges its legitimacy.

“We’re so grateful to the jurors who weren’t swayed by the nonsense that was going on,” defendant Shawna Cox told reporters. “God said we weren’t guilty. We weren’t guilty of anything.”

As the seven-week-long trial in the U.S. District Court in Portland climaxed, U.S. marshals wrestled to the floor Ammon Bundy’s lawyer, Marcus Mumford, who was tased after he argued heatedly with the judge over the terms of his client’s continued detention.

The Bundys still face assault, conspiracy and other charges from a separate armed standoff in 2014 at the Nevada ranch of their father, Cliven Bundy, triggered when federal agents seized his cattle for his failure to pay grazing fees for his use of public land.

The outcome of the Oregon trial clearly shocked many in the packed courtroom. Attorneys exchanged looks of astonishment with the defendants, then hugged their clients as the not-guilty verdicts were read amid gasps from spectators according to Reuters.

Outside the courthouse, supporters celebrated by shouting “Hallelujah” and reading passages from the U.S. Constitution. One man rode his horse, named Lady Liberty, in front of the courthouse carrying an American flag.

The verdict came after four days of deliberations. One juror, a former federal employee, was dismissed over questions of bias on Wednesday and replaced by a substitute. The 12-member panel found all seven defendants – six men and a woman – not guilty of the most serious charge, conspiracy to impede federal officers through intimidation, threats or force. That charge alone carried a maximum penalty of six years in prison.

The defendants also were acquitted of illegal possession of firearms in a federal facility and theft of government property, except in the case of Ryan Bundy, for whom jurors were deadlocked on the charge of theft. The takeover of the wildlife refuge was initially sparked by outrage over the plight of two imprisoned Oregon ranchers the occupiers believed had been unfairly treated in an arson case.

The militants claimed they were also protesting larger grievances at what they saw as government tyranny.

As we reporeted at the time, the standoff led to the shooting death of one protester, Robert “LaVoy” Finicum, by police shortly after the Bundy brothers were arrested, and left parts of the refuge badly damaged.

More than two dozen people, in all, have been criminally charged in the occupation, and a second group of defendants is due to stand trial in February. Mumford told reporters he believed Ammon and Ryan Bundy would remain in custody for the time being but may be transferred to Nevada.

Four co-defendants were free on their own recognizance during the trial. A fifth, David Fry, the last of the occupiers to surrender in February, was released hours after the verdict.

As Shepard Ambellas notes, this case is a major victory for ranchers and Americans in general who surprisingly may still have rights.

Brian Cavalier, Ammon’s personal bodyguard, was sentenced earlier in the week to time served, 9 months, “but remains under a U.S. Marshals Service hold, and is expected to be transferred to Nevada, where he faces another federal indictment stemming from the 2014 armed standoff with federal agents outside controversial rancher Cliven Bundy’s ranch near Bunkerville, Nevada,” according to a report by OregonLive.com.

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Trump Effect? School Bullying Isn’t Increasing, But Hillary Clinton Wants to Spend $500 Million Fighting It

HillaryMaking use of time-honored federal government logic—we have to do something about X, and this is something, so we must do this—Hillary Clinton has proposed $500 million in federal spending on school anti-bullying initiatives.

Under Clinton’s plan, titled “Better Than Bullying,” the feds would use the money to essentially bribe states into hiring more school counsellors, developing suicide prevention and mental health programs, re-training teachers, and cracking down on cyberbullying. Tax increases would pay for it, according to The Wall Street Journal.

Supporters argue the program is necessary because bullying is on the rise—and it’s all Donald Trump’s fault, the Clinton campaign alleges.

Indeed, this has become a Clinton talking point. “Teachers and parents call it the ‘Trump effect,'” she said during the second presidential debate. “Bullying is up. A lot of people are feeling uneasy, a lot of kids are expressing their concerns.”

The National Education Association—the country’s most powerful teachers’ union, and an important pillar of support for the former secretary of state—has seized upon the idea that Trump’s candidacy has somehow made schoolyard bullying worse. “Amid Trump-inspired spike in school bullying, Clinton announces national initiative,” is how the NEA heralded Clinton’s plan on its website. Another NEA headline: “‘Trump Effect’ elicits ‘disgraceful’ behavior from some students, strikes fear in others, educators say.”

This is a transparently politically useful argument for Team Clinton: my opponent is making your kids less safe! Think of the children! But is it true?

We have no idea.

The NEA has cited the anecdotal evidence of a handful of its members. It also cited a Southern Poverty Law Center survey that found the Trump campaign was producing “an alarming level of fear and anxiety among children of color.” But:

Our survey of approximately 2,000 K-12 teachers was not scientific. Our email subscribers and those who visit our website are not a random sample of teachers nationally, and those who chose to respond to our survey are likely to be those who are most concerned about the impact of the presidential campaign on their students and schools.

So that doesn’t count. But can we do better?

As it so happens, the National Center for Education Statistics collects scientifically sound data on teen bullying rates. Unfortunately, the most recently available data is for the year 2013 (it was published in 2015). Data for 2014 won’t be released for a few more months. Data that takes into account the “Trump effect” won’t be available for years, presumably.

“2013 is the most recent year for which we have published data on student bullying,” NCES’s Lauren Musu-Gillette told me via email.

Still, the 2013 figures were interesting. According to the NCES, 22 percent of kids ages 12-18 were bullied at school in 2013. That was an improvement over previous years: the bullying rate was 28 percent in 2011 and 2009, and 32 percent in 2007. School bullying, it seems, is falling.

Has Trump singlehandedly reversed this trend? There are no data to support such an assertion.

It may even be the case that perceived bullying is rising even as actual bullying continues to fall. That’s because “bullying” is prone to something psychologist Jonathan Haidt calls “concept creep.” For behavior to be considered bullying, it used to have meet certain criteria: a power imbalance between the perpetrator and the victim, intentionality, and repetition. These days, bullying is typically defined more broadly, as virtually any form of unwanted behavior.

In light of evolving definitions, Haidt is concerned that grand efforts to combat bullying—broadly defined—might be ill-advised.

“The concept of bullying has experienced such massive concept creep in psychology and education circles that these new programs are likely to target a great deal of the normal conflict kids have with each other,” he told me via email. “Such a policy focus is likely to intensify the victimhood culture and moral dependency that has been growing so rapidly on college campuses.”

Colleges have fallen victim to administrative bloat: They have hired more and more non-teaching personnel, causing tuition to skyrocket. Clinton’s anti-bullying plan would likely have the same effect, encouraging K-12 schools to employ more counsellors and social workers. What happens when the federal funding runs out? This new anti-bullying bureaucracy won’t just go away.

To recap: We don’t know if bullying is getting worse, let alone whether Trump is the cause. And we don’t really know whether hiring an army of non-teaching staff would lessen the problem. But Clinton wants the federal government to throw another $500 million at it anyway.

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Trump “Will Probably Win” and Gold “May Rise $100” Overnight – Jim Rickards

Jim Rickards: Trump “Will Probably Win” and Gold “May Rise $100” Overnight

The US election is just two weeks away on November 8th, and one of Hillary Clinton’s most vocal critics on the business side is finance commentator and monetary expert Jim Rickards. Jim is in Sydney this week, armed with his latest book, hot off the press entitled ‘The Road to Ruin – The Global Elites’ Secret Plan for the Next Financial Crisis’ and gave an interesting television interview to ‘The Business’ on ABC Australia.

Rickards says that Trump “will probably win” and, if he, does stock markets will crash 10% and gold will rise $100 over night.

The markets and polls believe Clinton will win and that is priced into markets in the same way that a ‘Bremain’ was priced into markets prior to the ‘Brexit’ vote.

 

kilkenomics_rickards2
Kilkenomics 2016 – Where Comedy Meets Economics

“If Hillary wins nothing happens, if Trump wins you will have an earthquake.” 

Should Trump win, which looking at the polls is not an impossibility, gold would likely surge $100 per ounce overnight, says Rickards.

What Hillary did was appalling and there will be ‘another reckoning on November 8th’ which the market has failed to price in, creating a good scenario for gold. He says you don’t have to agree that Trump will win, but agree that that in reality he could win.

For Rickards, this is an excellent opportunity for investors, particularly those who have an allocation to physical gold which he believes is set to rise in the coming months and years.

Jim is editor of Strategic Intelligence for Agora Financial as well as the founder of the James Rickards Project: an inquiry into complex dynamics of geopolitics and capital. He is also the author of New York Times bestsellers The New Case for Gold, Currency Wars: The Making of the Next Global Crisis and The Death of Money: The Coming Collapse of the International Financial System.

Jim’s newest book, The Road to Ruin will be published in November and he is appearing at Kilkenomics 2016 where he will speak at a number of events.

Watch extended interview with Rickards on ABC Australia here

 

Kilkenomics was Europe’s first economics festival and is taking place November 10th (Thurs) to November 13th (Sunday) in beautiful Kilkenny, Ireland.

Often referred to as ‘Davos with jokes’, Kilkenomics brings together leading economists, financial analysts and media commentators with some of the funniest stand-up comedians around.

This year GoldCore are one of the sponsors and are speaking on a panel with Jim Rickards and David McWilliams, the founder of Kilkenomics, on the Saturday, November 12th at 3pm. Click here for more info:
A Guide to Investing in 2017

Excellent contributors this year include:

  • Nicolas Taleb
  • Paul McCulley
  • Steve Keen
  • Dan Ariely
  • Dara Ó Briain
  • Linda Yueh
  • Wolfgang Münchau
  • Bill Black
  • Matthew Bishop
  • Liam Halligan

Tickets are on sale now and will sell out fast. More information about the event and bookings can be made here
Buy tickets for Kilkenomics 2016

 

Gold and Silver Bullion – News and Commentary

Gold ends higher as economic data raise uncertainty for interest-rate hike (MarketWatch.com)

Gold prices show small gains in Asia as U.S. durable goods data noted (Investing.com)

Gold steady on subdued stocks, set for second weekly gain (Reuters.com)

Gold’s Not Budging From 200-Day Average as India Buys: Chart (Bloomberg.com)

Gold Imports by China Increase for First Time in Four Months (Bloomberg.com)

Clinton win doesn’t mean market stability, says gold firm (IrishExaminer.com)

Do you own long-term bonds? You might want to think about selling (MoneyWeek.com)

You’ve heard of Kondratiev waves – now meet the Frisby flux, the pound’s eight-year cycle (MoneyWeek.com)

This Is What Gold Does In A Currency Crisis, Brexit Edition (DollarCollapse.com)

These Are the Charts That Scare Wall Street (Bloomberg.com)

7RealRisksBlogBanner

Gold Prices (LBMA AM)

28 Oct: USD 1,265.90, GBP 1,042.47 & EUR 1,160.96 per ounce
27 Oct: USD 1,269.30, GBP 1,038.29 & EUR 1,162.93 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 1,273.90, GBP 1,043.45 & EUR 1,166.13 per ounce
25 Oct: USD 1,269.30, GBP 1,037.53 & EUR 1,165.85 per ounce
24 Oct: USD 1,267.00, GBP 1,034.89 & EUR 1,163.61 per ounce
21 Oct: USD 1,263.95, GBP 1,033.79 & EUR 1,160.69 per ounce
20 Oct: USD 1,269.20, GBP 1,034.65 & EUR 1,156.75 per ounce

Silver Prices (LBMA)

28 Oct: USD 17.61, GBP 14.51 & EUR 16.13 per ounce
27 Oct: USD 17.66, GBP 14.41 & EUR 16.16 per ounce
26 Oct: USD 17.66, GBP 14.46 & EUR 16.17 per ounce
25 Oct: USD 17.73, GBP 14.49 & EUR 16.30 per ounce
24 Oct: USD 17.64, GBP 14.41 & EUR 16.19 per ounce
21 Oct: USD 17.51, GBP 14.34 & EUR 16.08 per ounce
20 Oct: USD 17.60, GBP 14.35 & EUR 16.03 per ounce


Recent Market Updates

– World Is Out of Weapons
– Gold Is The “Kardashian of Commodities” – Herbert & Keiser Interview Skoyles
– Value of Gold – Unlike Paper Currency Gold Maintained Value Throughout Ages
– Fed Risks Lehman Crisis As US Recession Storm Gathers
– Silver Eagle Demand ‘Returned with a Vengeance’
– Cashless Society – War On Cash to Benefit Gold?
– “Higher Gold Prices” On Global Trade Slowdown – HSBC
– Euro “Will Collapse” As Is “House of Cards” Warns Architect of Euro
– Property Bubble In Ireland Developing Again
– “Gold Is A Great Hedge Against Politicians” – Goldman
– Sell Gold Now – Time To Liquidate Gold ETF, Pooled and Digital Gold
– Gold In GBP Up 43% YTD – “Massive Twin Deficits” To Impact UK Assets
– Ron Paul Says “Gold Going Up” Whether Trump Or Clinton Elected

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Frontrunning: October 28

  • European Stocks Fall on Earnings as Bond Rout Eases; Metals Rise (BBG)
  • Wall Street’s Frantic Push to Hire Coders (BBG)
  • Novo Nordisk Shares Dive on Lower Forecast (WSJ)
  • Japanese core inflation hits three-year low (FT)
  • AB InBev cuts revenue forecast after triple blow in Brazil (Reuters)
  • Acquisition: General Electric Pursues Deal With Baker Hughes (WSJ)
  • Or partnership: GE in discussion with Baker Hughes on potential partnerships (Reuters)
  • Russia’s Lavrov says Marshall plan needed for Syria (Reuters)
  • Syrian rebels launch Aleppo counter attack (Reuters)
  • In Germany, Syrians find mosques too conservative (Reuters)
  • Oregon militants acquitted of conspiracy in wildlife refuge seizure (Reuters)
  • Some Cities Want Their Immigrants to Vote (BBG)
  • Americans Are Dying Faster. Millennials, Too (BBG)
  • It’s About to Get Harder to Seek Student Debt Relief (BBG)
  • Ex-Miss Finland says Trump groped her (Reuters)
  • Apple Unveils New Macs, TV App (WSJ)
  • Apple Increases Prices of Macs in U.K. by 20 Percent (BBG)
  • Podesta relative earned six-figure fees lobbying Clinton’s State Dept. during his tenure there (Fox)
  • Air Force One Isn’t the Only 747 With a President Onboard (BBG)
  • Bezos Rocket Company Is a New Leader in the Suborbital Space Race (BBG)
  • The World’s $49 Trillion Infrastructure Problem May Not Get Solved Anytime Soon (BBG)

 

Overnigh Media Digest

WSJ

– General Electric Co is in talks to merge its oil-and-gas business with Baker Hughes Inc, according to people familiar with the matter, a transaction that would dramatically reshape the industrial giant. http://on.wsj.com/2eVrG6s

– Apple Inc introduced new versions of its Macintosh personal computers Thursday, betting that smaller, thinner models and a touch screen on the keyboard will reverse declining sales. Apple refreshed its MacBook Pro laptops, adding a thin touch screen on top of the keyboards of some models. Users can slide and touch the bar to edit photos, navigate the web or authorize online purchases. http://on.wsj.com/2dMor3U

– CenturyLink Inc is in advanced talks to merge with Level 3 Communications Inc, a deal that would give the business-telecommunications companies greater heft in a brutally competitive industry. A deal could be announced in the coming weeks, according to people familiar with the matter. As always, there is a possibility the talks could fall apart. http://on.wsj.com/2eK4Z4z

– Qualcomm Inc’s agreement to pay $39 billion for the world’s largest developer of chips for automobiles represents a huge bet on cars becoming the next smartphone – a way to roll together communications and services once handled by dozens of other devices. Its deal for NXP Semiconductors NV , the biggest to date in the semiconductor industry, puts the spotlight on Qualcomm Chief Executive Steve Mollenkopf, who 20 years ago started at the company he now runs designing the unseen chips used in mobile phones. http://on.wsj.com/2e06CwB

– Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corp said Thursday it had launched an external review of its security and staffing processes in the wake of its second major personnel scandal in three years. The government services and defense specialist said it had hired former Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Robert Mueller to conduct the review. http://on.wsj.com/2dMWTep

 

FT

– UK government dismissed calls for a special visa rules for devolved regions and nations. Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon is lobbying for a ‘London visa’, so that businesses can continue to hire form abroad even post an anticipated end to free movement from within the EU.

– AstraZeneca’s shares listed in the U.S. dropped 4.4 percent after it announced that U.S. regulators have temporarily halted enrolling new patients with certain cancers in clinical trials involving its new drug Durvalumab.

– Deutsche Borse sold one-third of its stake in Bats Global Markets for $86 million. This move comes after CBOE Holdings agreed to takeover Bats. The sale is part of the German exchange’s strategy to reshape its holdings.

– UK’s economy was 0.5 percent larger between July and September than the last quarter according to the Office of National Statistics. Treasury had predicted it would shrink 0.1 percent.

 

NYT

– Federal officials approved broad new privacy rules on Thursday that prevent companies like AT&T Inc and Comcast Corp from collecting and giving out digital information about individuals – such as the websites they visited and the apps they used – in a move that creates landmark protections for internet users. http://nyti.ms/2dRqCy6

– Apple Inc on Thursday showed off new MacBook Pros that feature the Touch Bar, a touch-screen strip at the top of the keyboard that changes to display functions specific to the app being used. The company also added its Touch ID function to the power button of the computers, allowing users to unlock the device or buy something with Apple Pay with the touch of a finger. http://nyti.ms/2dRmvlM

– Carlyle Group told investors this week that it was pivoting away from its hedge fund investments, once worth $15 billion. Carlyle co-founder, William E. Conway Jr. said the firm’s performance in hedge funds did not meet the expectations of its investors. http://nyti.ms/2dRnW3x

– Federal prosecutors brought charges on Thursday against dozens of people accused of taking part in a giant international crime ring that relied on Indian telephone call centers to bilk thousands of Americans out of more than $300 million. http://nyti.ms/2dRofvb

– The New York City Council voted unanimously on Thursday to give freelance workers a set of protections against wage theft that are believed to be the first of their kind in the country. http://nyti.ms/2dRqheJ

 

Britain

The Times

Tata Sons, the ultimate parent company of Jaguar Land Rover and Tata Steel UK, could embark on a multibillion-pound asset sale or bring in friendly Asian or Middle Eastern sovereign wealth fund investors to buy out the stake held in Tata by the family of Cyrus Mistry, its deposed chairman. http://bit.ly/2dQKZf3

The Spanish parent of O2, Telefonica SA slashed its dividend for the next two years in an attempt to bring down its debt. Telefónica, which had stated it would pay 0.75 per share this year, announced it would instead provide dividends of 0.55 and 0.40 per share in 2016 and 2017 respectively. http://bit.ly/2dQOJwJ

The Guardian

Nissan Motor Co Ltd plans to turn its Sunderland car factory into one of the biggest car plants in the world, producing two new models, after winning “support and assurances” from Theresa May about Brexit. http://bit.ly/2dQJ9uz

Tata Sons has hit back at axed chairman Cyrus Mistry in an escalating war of words that pits two of India’s most powerful business dynasties against each other. http://bit.ly/2dQMDgG

The Telegraph

Debenhams Plc profits have edged downwards as the retail group welcomes a new chief executive. The retailer reported a 7pc slide in pre-tax profits to £105.8m in the 53 weeks to September 3. http://bit.ly/2dQNKN5

Sky News

Hermes Investment Management signed up on Thursday to a consortium vying to buy a controlling stake in National Grid’s gas distribution division. http://bit.ly/2dQNBJG

A group of software entrepreneurs are drawing up plans for a 300 million pound flotation or sale even as London’s market for new share offerings continues to stall. http://bit.ly/2dQOfqr

The Independent

A post-Brexit airspace deal between the UK and the EU would be in both parties’ interests, according to a director at Easyjet Plc, but the budget airline is still suffering from a downturn in bookings and is considering relocating its head office to within the EU. http://ind.pn/2dQO0vE

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Secretary Of State Joe Biden?

Among one of the more prominent Podesta hack revelations to emerge in the past three weeks was an email by Ron Klain, who was Vice President Joe Biden’s chief-of-staff for the first two years of the Obama administration, who wrote to Clinton Campaign chair JOhn Podesta about playing a role in the “demise” of Biden’s 2016 presidential run. He thanked Podesta for helping him land on his feet in the Hillary Clinton campaign.

She was great last night. Thanks for inviting me into the campaign, and for sticking with me during the Biden anxiety. You are a great friend and a great leader. It’s been a little hard for me to play such a role in the Biden demise – and I am definitely dead to them — but I’m glad to be on Team HRC, and glad that she had a great debate last night. Thanks John.

As the NRO previously reported, on October 21, 2015, a week after Klain’s e-mail to Podesta, Biden announced that he would not seek the Democratic nomination. The announcement came in a strange, lengthy Rose Garden speech, with President Obama by the vice-president’s side. For much of the speech, Biden sounded more like he was starting a campaign than pulling the plug on talk of one. Naturally, that led to speculation that he’d fully intended to run but was somehow persuaded not to at the last minute. During the Clinton administration, Ron Klain had been chief-of-staff to Vice President Al Gore. Klain had been central to the Obama administration’s Solyndra debacle – the green energy firm backed by Obama donors into which the administration poured $535 million even though it was in terminal financial condition even as Obama and Biden touted it. Nevertheless, when the Ebola controversy arose in October 2014, the president made Klain the administration’s point man. A year later, Klain apparently played “such a role in the Biden demise” that he had become “dead to them” – presumably the White House, or at least Biden’s part of it. But he emerged “glad to be on Team HRC.”

In other words, Hillary may have had a mole in Biden’s organization who ultimately led to the collapse of a campaign many said could challenge that of Hillary’s.

So now it’s payback time, and as Politico reports, Hillary Clinton is considering tapping Vice President Joe Biden as secretary of State should she win in November

“He’d be great, and they are spending a lot of time figuring out the best way to try to persuade him to do it if she wins,” a source familiar with the transition team’s plans told Politico.

The source said that Biden has not been approached yet about the possibility; then again thanks to the Podesta files we also learned that the Clinton campaign lied about not notifying her VP running mate Tim Kaine until the last moment, so it may very well be that Biden is fully aware of his role should Hillary win. 

Before becoming vice president in 2009, Biden served as a senator for 36 years, chairing the Senate Foreign Relations Committee off and on toward the end of his tenure.

As The Hill notes, Biden and Clinton reportedly clashed over foreign policy while Clinton served as secretary of State. She is known to have advocated for interventionist measures, while Biden often called for a lighter footprint on the world stage. 

Other names that were floated for the gig include former Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman; former Deputy Secretary of State Billy Burns; Nick Burns, an undersecretary in the George W. Bush administration; Clinton’s former Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell; and James Stavridis, a former admiral who Clinton reportedly considered tapping as her running mate.

While it is unclear if Biden would take Vladimir Putin, or Assad, “to the back of the barn” to resolve the ongoing diplomatic fiasco between the US and Russia, the prospect of such an outcome alone may be worth giving Joe the opportunity to “fix” America’s struggling foreign policy.

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Movie Reviews: Inferno and Gimme Danger: New at Reason

InfernoRon Howard’s Inferno can be recommended for the opportunity it offers to avoid reading the Dan Brown novel on which it’s based. Brown’s bestseller, another exercise in his trademark verbal incontinence and wooden characterizations, would seem to defy cinematic adaptation and, as we see here, actually does. Director Howard, in his third go-round with Brown’s tepid hero, the “Harvard symbologist” Robert Langdon, has attempted to rein in the author’s wandering plot and gushers of babble; but trimming and compressing them has only added to the story’s incoherence.

Langdon (Tom Hanks again) is back in Italy, this time waking up in a Florence hospital with a head wound and no idea where he is—the last thing he remembers is being at home in Cambridge a few days earlier. Attending physician and requisite brainy babe Sienna Brooks (Felicity Jones) sympathizes, but before she can be much help an assassin called Vayentha (Ana Ularu) storms in and starts shooting up the ER. Langdon and Sienna flee, an activity which will consume most of their time for the rest of the movie, writes Kurt Loder.

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Global Stocks Drop On Poor Earnings, Bond “Bloodbath” Ahead Of US Q3 GDP

S&P futures and Asian stocks were little changed while European shares fell as the global bonds sell-off deepened on speculation major central banks are moving closer to reining in stimulus, while stocks retreated after disappointing results from companies including Amazon.com and AB InBev. The dollar hit a three-month high against the yen as investors grew more confident that the Federal Reserve will raise U.S. interest rates by the end of the year.

Benchmark 10-year U.S. and euro zone yields rose to their highest since May and 10-year British yields were firmly on track for their biggest monthly rise since January 2009, the second biggest in over 20 years.  “Bond markets are facing a recurring nightmare at the moment as we continue to see yields rise sharply,” said DB’s Jim Reid. Key overnight data included Japanese CPI, which printed -0.5% as expected; the first print of US Q3 GDP will be revealed at 8:30am ET.

Among the stories, UBS reported a drop in wealth earnings as CEO focuses on cost cuts, Amazon missed on EPS and forecast holiday sales that were below analysts’ estimates sending it shares sharply lower, while AB InBev – one of Europe’s biggest companies – plunged on a profit miss; Novo Nordisk, the world’s biggest maker of insulin, cut its long-term growth target; the WSJ reported that GE was discussing an acquisition of Baker Hughes although the company later denied the rumors saying partnership negotiations don’t include an “outright purchase.”

“The guidance has been a bit disappointing,” said Daniel Murray, head of research at EFG Asset Management in London. “Sentiment has been damaged by the fact that we are in the U.S. election period and the fact that expectations with respect to the ECB are coalescing around the fact that it’s going to be less expansive than it has been this year.”

As a result, a rally in global equities is pulling back in October and bonds worldwide are on course for their worst month since the taper tantrum of 2013 as global central bank tapering fears return while the Fed moves closer to raising interest rates as the economy improves. Quoted by Bloomberg, James Woods, a strategist at Rivkin Securities in Sydney said “there are so many risk events coming up, people just sort of want to get those out of the way before they commit. There’s quite a bit of cash sitting on the sidelines, waiting to be deployed.” He did not explain where the cash those who sell to the “buyers on the sidelines” will end up; one assumes on the sidelines too…

Looking at today’s main event, the advance Q3 GDP release in the US this afternoon, the range of expectations for the data is huge. Indeed the consensus (Bloomberg) is currently sitting at 2.6% for the annualized QoQ print while the range among economists spans 1.3% to 3.6%. DB’s Joe Lavorgna is at the low end of that range with his forecast. A couple of factors lead to that conclusion. Firstly, Joe highlights that inflation-adjusted retail control is pointing towards sub-1% annualized growth of overall real personal consumption expenditures in Q3. This expected slowdown would follow a relatively large 4.3% increase in the previous quarter. The biggest risk in his view however remains inventories. The level of stockpiles is still elevated relative to the pace of sales throughout most of this year and Joe expects another drawdown in inventories for Q3. It’s worth noting that the two GDP tracker models from the Atlanta Fed and NY Fed are at 2.1% and 2.2% respectively.

Back to markets, Asian stocks headed for a weekly drop as Chinese shares retreated and investors weighed mixed earnings reports before central bank meetings and the U.S. election. Japanese equities rallied after the yen fell. European stocks fell for a fifth day as companies reported disappointing results while a bond rout abated and metals rallied.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index headed for its longest losing streak in six weeks after Anheuser-Busch InBev NV posted a surprise drop in profit and Novo Nordisk A/S, the world’s biggest maker of insulin, cut its long-term growth target. 71% of Stoxx 600 members decline, 27% gain. The index fell 0.5%, taking its weekly loss to 1.2 percent – the biggest slump since mid-September. While most industry groups retreated in the past five days, banks climbed and lost their spot as the year’s biggest losers, thanks to better-than-forecast reports at Spanish firms such as Banco Santander SA and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA.

The S&P 500 fell for the past three days, its longest losing streak since early September. Futures on the S&P 500 Index were little changed, with the gauge heading for its third weekly decline in four. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 Index dropped less than 0.1 percent on Friday.

Among companies moving on earnings, courtesy of Bloomberg:

  • AB InBev lost 4.6 percent after cutting its revenue projection.
  • Total SA fell 1.7 percent after posting an earnings decline.
  • Novo Nordisk sank 14 percent after slashing its long-term target for earnings growth by half.
  • Software company Gemalto NV tumbled 12 percent as its revenue missed estimates.
  • Amazon.com Inc. lost 5.4 percent in early New York trading after forecasting holiday sales that may miss projections.
  • Alphabet Inc. added 1.1 percent after reporting revenue and profit that topped projections.
  • Sanofi rallied 7 percent after the drugmaker raised its profit forecast.
  • British Airways owner IAG SA, which reported a decline in quarterly earnings amid a weaker pound, climbed 3.4 percent as its annual profit forecast was in line with analysts’ estimates.

A gauge of dollar strength was near a seven-month high before the U.S. reports gross domestic product. Aluminum rose to a 15-month high after a rally in iron ore prices in China.

German 10-year Bunds were little changed, with yields near the highest in almost six months. The annual consumer-price inflation rate in four German regions, including Saxony and Brandenburg, rose in October, according to reports released before data for the nation is made available later Friday. “The premise of the selloff so far was higher inflation and uncertainty on what the ECB is going to do next and particularly about how the next leg of quantitative easing would look,” said Peter Chatwell, head of rates strategy at Mizuho International Plc in London. “These conditions remain in place, so it’s difficult to envisage markets finding strong support until there is much stronger conviction as to the ECB.” German 10-year bund yields were at 0.16 on Friday, after reaching 0.22 percent, the highest since May 5. The yield has climbed 28 basis points this month.

The yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries was little changed at 1.85 percent, leaving it up 25 basis points this month.

Fixed-income assets are retreating as fund managers boost cash holdings before the presidential vote Nov. 8 and as monetary policies show signs of turning less accommodative in the U.S., Europe and Japan. The Bank of Japan shifted to targeting bond levels from its goal to push yields lower, while ECB officials have said the authority will probably gradually wind down its bond purchases.

Bonds have lost 2.9 percent in October, according to the Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Index.

Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and Mastercard Inc. are among companies reporting on Friday. U.S. GDP growth quickened in the third quarter, economists in a Bloomberg survey said before a report on Friday.

* * *

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down less than 0.1% to 2122
  • Stoxx 600 down 0.6% to 340
  • FTSE 100 down 0.5% to 6954
  • DAX down 0.6% to 10654
  • German 10Yr yield down less than 1bp to 0.17%
  • Italian 10Yr yield up 3bps to 1.56%
  • Spanish 10Yr yield up 3bps to 1.22%
  • S&P GSCI Index down 0.1% to 373.2
  • MSCI Asia Pacific up less than 0.1% to 139
  • Nikkei 225 up 0.6% to 17446
  • Hang Seng down 0.8% to 22955
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.3% to 3104
  • S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 5284
  • US 10-yr yield up less than 1bp to 1.86%
  • Dollar Index down 0.08% to 98.81
  • WTI Crude futures down 0.2% to $49.60
  • Brent Futures down less than 0.1% to $50.44
  • Gold spot down less than 0.1% to $1,268
  • Silver spot down 0.1% to $17.61

Global Headline News

  • German bonds headed for their worst month since 2013 as a global selloff deepened
  • UBS Reports Drop in Wealth Earnings as CEO Focuses on Cost Cuts: Wealth management profit declines 21% in third quarter
  • Amazon Forecasts Holiday Sales That May Miss Analysts’ Estimates: Shares declined as much as 9 percent in extended trading
  • AB InBev Needing Megabrew Tonic as Shares Plunge on Profit Miss: Budweiser maker cuts full-year revenue forecast on slowdown
  • GE Discussing Baker Hughes Partnership as Oil Slump Endures: Negotiations don’t include an ‘outright purchase,’ GE says
  • Chipotle said to hire Goldman, Wachtell to help defend against activist investor Bill Ackman, Reuters reports
  • Marvell is close to hiring Goldman as an adviser after the company replaced its CEO and rejected a series of Chinese bids
  • Samsung Biologics priced its $2b initial public offering at the high end of a marketed range
  • U.S. said to probe Tullett, BGC, TFS-ICAP over currency options
  • Companies in Europe cutting their record amounts of cash they possess, buying short-term securities instead of expanding
  • Bond investors are worried that things are about to get worse for Brazilian banks already battered by delinquencies
  • Brookfield agreed to buy a 70% stake in Brazilian water and sewage company Odebrecht Ambiental for as much as $1b
  • Apple Increases Prices of Macs in U.K. by 20 Percent: Amount charged in the U.S. hasn’t changed over the same period
  • In European primary, higher-yielding borrowers are dominating a busy end to the third-busiest week of the year, with at least EU2.5b expected to price across 7 deals

* * *

Looking at regional markets, we start in Asia where stocks headed for a weekly drop as Chinese shares retreated and investors weighed mixed earnings reports before central bank meetings and the U.S. election. Japanese equities rallied after the yen fell. Relief for the BoJ ahead of their meeting next week with the latest inflation figures not deteriorating further, while the Tokyo CPI (often regarded as a leading indicator for the national reading) which would have taken into account the BoJ’s new yield curve policy, printed firmer than expected. However, as is typically the case, a muted reaction was observed in the JPY, which had been notably weaker following the USD strength throughout EU and US hours. As such, the Nikkei 225 (+0.5%) outperformed to hover around 6-month highs with exporters benefitting from the
weaker currency, coupled with financials gaining from the pick-up in yields. Elsewhere, the ASX 200 (-0.3%) was dragged lower by AMP shares after the company booked a AUD 668m1n impairment charge for their wealth protection unit, while Chinese markets were indecisive with Shanghai Comp (unch) initially underpinned from a larger net weekly liquidity injection and encouraging earnings, before gains were then pared alongside weakness in the Hang Seng (-0.3%) on a disappointing trading debut for China Resources Pharmaceuticals which was one of HK’s largest IPOs this year. In credit markets, JGB yields were higher across the curve taking the impetus from the rally in yields from its global counterparts throughout yesterday’s session. Yields also continued to climb higher post Japanese CPI release, although outperformance had been observed in the belly of the curve after the BoJ offered to purchase 5-10yrs. PBoC injected CNY 95b1n 7-day reverse repos, CNY 65b1n in 14-day reverse repos, CNY 35b1n in 28-day reverse repos for a weekly net injection of CNY 595b1n vs. Prey CNY 95.5bIn injection.

Asia Top News

  • Japan Consumer Prices Keep Falling, Household Spending Slips: Downbeat inflation and spending data came despite an increasingly tight labor market
  • Hong Kong Regulator Said to Call in Brokerages to Settle Probes: SFC plans public consultation on manager responsibility regime
  • Singapore’s Mall Vacancies Jump to Highest Level in a Decade: Office vacancies also climb in quarter to a four- year high
  • Daiwa Profit Climbs 25% on Trading Income; Announces Buyback: 2Q net income 30.4b yen vs 24.4b yen year ago
  • UOB Net Income Beats Estimate as Credit-Card, Fund Income Rises: 3Q net S$791m vs est. $771m
  • Macquarie Group Profit Beats Estimates on Asset Sales: Full- year profit to be in line with last year’s record result
  • Tata Said to Tap Sovereign Funds on Buying Out Ousted Chairman: Indian industrialist prepares for possible Mistry family sale

European equities opened in the red this morning as one of Europe’s biggest companies AB InBev (ABI BB) fell as much as 5.5%. This general negative sentiment led the DAX future to break Wednesdays low of around 10625 and remains lower by around 1 %. In terms of other large caps, RBS (RBS LN) posted a loss but with a higher than Prey. CETI ratio; the Co. opened +4.9% before retracing these gains in line with the downside across the rest of the market. In Germany, Linde (LIN GY) are currently up +2.7% off the back of a stellar earnings report and are the out performer in the DAX.

Top European News

  • RBS Shares Rise as Trading Unit Boosts Third-Quarter Revenue: RBS says it won’t meet deadline for shedding Williams & Glyn
  • Sanofi Overcomes Diabetes Crunch, Surges After Boosting Forecast: Drugmaker to divest EU generics business within 12-24 months
  • BNP Profit Rises, Beating Estimates, Buoyed by Debt Trading: French firm joins other banks benefiting from debt operations
  • Spain’s Economic Growth Slows as Rajoy Gets Closer to Power: Rajoy may take office this week as Socialists drop veto
  • Facebook Told to Stop Exploiting WhatsApp Data During EU Probe: EU privacy chiefs say use isn’t in line with terms of service
  • Eni Posts Wider-Than-Expected Loss as Low Oil Prices Bite: Oil major cites declining profitability in refining, chemicals
  • Novo Plunges After Slashing Long-Term Growth Profit Target: Cut its long-term target for profit growth by half due to pressure on prices in the U.S., its largest market

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was little changed, heading for a 2.5 percent gain this move, the most since May. The probability of a Fed rate hike this year climbed 5 percentage points this week to 73 percent in the futures market. Sweden’s krona rebounded from the lowest level since 2010 against the euro on Thursday, having slumped after the central bank signaled it’s prepared to extend bond purchases into next year.  The yuan held near a six-year low amid speculation that China’s policy makers are becoming more tolerant of declines as exports slump and the dollar advances. It’s dropped 1.5 percent in October, set for its biggest monthly loss since an August 2015 devaluation. Bitcoin surged 8.4 percent this week to about $684, the biggest increase since June, as yuan declines spurred demand for the cryptocurrency. China accounts for about 90 percent of trading in bitcoins as the digital tender offers its citizens a means to hedge against yuan depreciation amid capital controls.

In commodities, oil was set for the first weekly drop since September as an OPEC committee meets in Vienna on Friday to discuss output quotas for members participating in an agreement to cut production. Saudi Arabia and its Gulf allies are willing to cut 4 percent from their peak production, Reuters reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Iron ore is rallying as coal prices surge, with futures in China heading for the longest run of daily gains since 2013 and contracts in Singapore poised for a third weekly climb. The stronger prices helped to lift shares of producers in Australia, the world’s largest shipper. Aluminum climbed as much as 0.6 percent in London and has gained more than 10 percent since last Friday’s close in Shanghai, its biggest weekly advance. Zinc reached a fresh five-year high and iron ore climbed a seventh day.

Looking at the day ahead, the focus will be on that Q3 GDP report while the final October University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading will also be released. Away from the data, the ECB’s Coeure is scheduled to speak this morning followed by Governing Council member Lane shortly after. Earnings wise today we’ve got just 16 S&P 500 companies due today with the highlights being Exxon Mobil and Chevron. UBS reports in Europe.

US Event Calendar

  • 8:30am: Employment Cost Index, 3Q, est. 0.6% (prior 0.6%)
  • 8:30am: GDP Annualized q/q, 3Q A, est. 2.6% (prior 1.4%)
  • 10:00am: U. of Mich. Sentiment, Oct. F, est. 88.2 (prior 87.9)
  • 1pm: Baker Hughes rig count

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

The problems with writing the EMR so early in the morning is that invariably I start writing within seconds of my alarm waking me up out of a deep sleep and often from a strange dream that stays firmly in my mind while I’m writing about crucial multi trillion dollar financial markets. This morning I’m particularly impacted as I just woke from a dream where BBC local radio randomly asked me to commentate on the football World Cup final between Republic of Ireland and Croatia. I wasn’t very good but fortunately my alarm woke me up after the final whistle so at least I know the result. The Irish won 6-4 with man of the match being ex-England and Liverpool player John Barnes who as I informed the listeners had just completed a 15 year residency qualification to play for Ireland at the age of 52. If there’s anyone that can interpret this dream then I’d be very pleased to hear from you. I did have cheesecake late at night at a work dinner in Oslo where I’m writing this from. So maybe that’s it.

Bond markets are facing a recurring nightmare of their own at the moment as we continue to see yields rise sharply. Yesterday’s move seemed to be sparked by the move for Gilts after UK Q3 GDP surprised to the upside (+0.5% qoq vs. +0.3% expected) despite the details suggesting a continuation of an increasingly unbalanced growth profile with services accelerating but production and construction struggling. In any case 10y Gilt yields surged a little over +10bps to close at 1.251% and in the process have narrowed the gap to the pre-Brexit level on June 23rd to just 12bps. That gap has been as big as 86bps.

Other European bond markets followed suit. 10y Bund yields were up +8.5bps to 0.168% and the highest yield since May while yields in the periphery were 7-8bps higher too. In fact, 5y Bund yields finished up 4bps at -0.397% and so taking the yield above the ECB’s -0.40% floor in the depo rate for the first time since June and therefore making them eligible for QE purchases again. Meanwhile Treasuries weren’t exempt from the moves. The benchmark 10y yield ended +6bps higher at 1.855% and so finally snapped out of the 1.70-1.80% range that they’d been stuck in for much of the month. That move actually came despite a relatively unimpressive durable and capital goods orders report. More on that later. This morning in Asia most major bond markets have followed the lead. Yields in the antipodeans in particular are up +5bps and generally at the highest levels since May.

Interestingly the bond selloff comes despite Fed rate hike expectations remaining relatively stable. The December probability of 73% was actually unchanged yesterday and means that since the end of last week the probability has only increased 5%. The various headlines and noise around ECB tapering hasn’t really shifted market re-pricing either. Where we are seeing significant shifts however are in inflation expectations. 10y US inflation breakevens are up over 30bps from the lows in June. It’s a similar story in Europe where Eurozone breakeven rates have marched higher this month and are now over 20bps up from the July lows. Stability in commodity markets is certainly helping. Despite all the back and forth of OPEC production cut speculation, Oil has still only traded $2/bbl either side of the $50/bbl mark this month while base metals have also been fairly stable.

It might be another active day in bond markets given the important advance Q3 GDP release in the US this afternoon where the range of expectations for the data is huge. Indeed the consensus (Bloomberg) is currently sitting at 2.6% for the annualized QoQ print while the range among economists spans 1.3% to 3.6%. DB’s Joe Lavorgna is at the low end of that range with his forecast. A couple of factors lead to that conclusion. Firstly, Joe highlights that inflation-adjusted retail control is pointing towards sub-1% annualized growth of overall real personal consumption expenditures in Q3. This expected slowdown would follow a relatively large 4.3% increase in the previous quarter. The biggest risk in his view however remains inventories. The level of stockpiles is still elevated relative to the pace of sales throughout most of this year and Joe expects another drawdown in inventories for Q3. It’s worth noting that the two GDP tracker models from the Atlanta Fed and NY Fed are at 2.1% and 2.2% respectively.

Another potentially important event today is the decision from Northern Ireland’s High Court on the UK’s Brexit process where claimants are arguing that triggering Article 50 without the consent of the devolved authorities is unlawful. It had been thought that the Northern Ireland decision would come after the decision from the parallel review at the London High Court, so there will probably be a lot of eyes on this outcome ahead of a possible decision in London next week.

Switching to the latest in Asia where it’s a bit of a mixed end to the week for markets. Yesterday’s weaker session for the Yen (-0.78%) is helping the Nikkei (+0.53%) to climb while the Shanghai Comp (+0.27%) is also a touch higher. The Hang Seng is little changed while the Kospi (-0.15%) and ASX (-0.36%) have edged lower. Earnings in the region are dictating much of the moves this morning across bourses however. Elsewhere US equity index futures are up following better than expected quarterly earnings from Alphabet after the close which sent shares up 4% in extended trading. Amazon did however disappoint after the close.

There’s also been some important data released in Japan this morning. In terms of consumer prices, headline CPI has remained unchanged in September at -0.5% yoy as expected, while the core was also unchanged at -0.5% yoy and in line with the market. The core-core reading (0.0% yoy vs. +0.1% expected) was softer than expected however after declining two-tenths from August. Meanwhile household spending (-2.1% yoy vs. -2.7% expected) wasn’t as weak as expected and the jobless rate was reported as declining one-tenth to +3.0% (vs. +3.1% expected). That matches the joint lowest reading in 21 years. It’s worth noting that the BoJ meet next week with some suggestion that they may look to revise their inflation outlook.

The moves this morning come after the S&P 500 finished -0.30% last night and in doing so closed lower for the third time in a row for the first time since early September. REITS felt it again given the moves in rates with the sector alone down -2.45%. Telecoms had a better day as did financials. Earnings also played their part with better than expected results for Dow Chemical and Bristol-Myers Squibb offset by declines for UPS and Simon Property following their latest quartiles. In Europe the Stoxx 600 (-0.01%) finished virtually unchanged following a choppy day. Amazingly in the last 5 sessions the index has closed either flat or -0.01% on 3 of them. Directionless. Much like the US however, European Banks (+1.18%) had another good day and have now finished higher in 7 out of the last 8 sessions. The Stoxx 600 Banks index is now at the highest since May 30th. Interestingly, the last time we were there US 10y yields were 1.851%. So the positive correlation between the sector and yields continues.

In terms of the US durable and capital goods orders data yesterday that we highlighted at the top, headline durable goods orders declined slightly in September (-0.1% mom vs. 0.0% expected) although ex-transportation did rise +0.2% mom as expected. The weakness was in core capex orders however which tumbled -1.2% mom last month (vs. -0.1% expected). Core shipments (+0.3% mom) met expectations. In fairness the core capex order decline was offset by the upwardly revised +1.2% mom print for August. Elsewhere, initial jobless claims declined 3k last week to 258k. Pending home sales (+1.5% mom vs. +1.0% expected) rose a little bit more than expected in September while there was no change in the Kansas City Fed’s manufacturing survey index at +6.

There wasn’t really any other data to highlight in Europe aside from the UK GDP print although we did get the latest BoE CBSP holdings data. Total purchases now stand at £1.994bn as of October 26th. This implies net purchases settled in the latest weekly period of £435m which works out at an average of £145m per auction in that week. That is a touch below the £166m since the program started. While it is a little below the run rate it’s still an overall strong start to the programme for the BoE.

Elsewhere yesterday, the ECB’s Nowotny highlighted what most in the market already think in that the ECB will make a decision on whether or not to extend QE in December. He also said that the ECB will examine ‘looking at volumes and then deciding on assets’. The ECB’s Mersch also said that the ECB should ‘largely achieve’ its inflation goal in 2019.

Wrapping up markets yesterday. It was a fairly volatile day for currencies although the standout was the tumble for the Swedish Krona (-1.92%) which plunged to the weakest level since 2010. That came after the Riksbank kept its benchmark repo rate at -0.5% yesterday but dovishly signalled that it’s prepared to extend bond purchases into 2017 and also keep rates negative for longer. The Swedish Krona has now fallen over 7% this year so far with only Sterling weakening more in the G10.

Looking at the day ahead now, this morning and shortly after this goes to print we’ll be kicking off with Q3 GDP data in France before we then get the PPI and CPI reports shortly after for the economy. Germany will also release its October inflation data today while Euro area confidence indicators are also due out this morning. Across the pond this afternoon, as noted earlier the focus will be on that Q3 GDP report while the final October University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading will also be released. Away from the data, the ECB’s Coeure is scheduled to speak this morning followed by Governing Council member Lane shortly after. Earnings wise today we’ve got just 16 S&P 500 companies due today with the highlights being Exxon Mobil and Chevron. UBS reports in Europe.

Before we wrap up there’s a few potentially interesting things to highlight this weekend. Spain’s Parliament is due to hold a second investiture vote in which Mariano Rajoy is expected to be confirmed for a second term. He should also announce his cabinet over the coming days. In Italy PM Renzi is scheduled to address a rally of his Democratic Party as part of his December 4th referendum campaign. Finally Iceland is due to hold a snap election this weekend. The latest polls have suggested that it will be a close call with the Guardian newspaper suggesting that the activist Pirate Party looks on course to either win or finish a close second. Results should be out on Sunday morning.

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Obama Commutes Sentences of 98 Drug Offenders, Including 42 Lifers

When he was arrested in 1990 for participating in a cocaine conspiracy, Ignatzio Giuliano was the 55-year-old owner of a dinner cruise boat in Fort Lauderdale. He is now an 81-year-old federal prisoner, suffering from multiple maladies and eager to spend time with his children and grandchildren before he dies. Thanks to President Obama, it looks like Giuliano will get that chance.

Giuliano is one of 98 prisoners whose sentences Obama shortened yesterday and one of 42 who received life sentences for nonviolent drug crimes. In a 2013 interview with the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU), Giuliano said his defense attorney neglected to tell him prosecutors had offered a plea deal under which he would have received a five-year sentence. Because he went to trial and qualified as a “career offender” based on four prior convictions for nonviolent offenses involving cocaine and marijuana, he received a mandatory sentence of life without parole. The leader of the cocaine conspiracy, who testified against Giuliano and two other defendants, was released after serving three years.

“I am an old man now,” Giuliano told the ACLU in 2013. “I made mistakes in my life, but I am not a threat to society, and I begrudge no one. My co-defendants have been home for years. All I am asking is to be afforded the dignity to spend the last few years of my life with my family, and to die outside of prison.” After spending a quarter of a century behind bars, Giuliano is now scheduled to be released next February.

This latest batch of commutations raises Obama’s total so far to 872, nearly all of them involving nonviolent drug offenders. That is more commutations than were issued by his 11 most recent predecessors combined. According to the White House, the 688 commutations since the beginning of 2016 are “the most ever done by a president in a single year”—not surprising, since Obama’s commutations have been strikingly backloaded, with 79 percent coming during his last year in office and 98 percent in the second half of his second term. He shortened just one sentence during his first term.

Obama clearly is trying hard to make up for lost time. In a speech on Tuesday, Deputy Attorney General Sally Yates said there will be “many more [commutations] to come.” Yesterday White House Counsel Neil Eggleston said Obama is committed to “using his clemency authority through the remainder of his time in office.” If he maintains this month’s rate in November, December, and January, his total will be around 1,500. If he picks up the pace, he could still reach the “thousands” predicted in 2014.

Even 2,000 commutations would represent just 6.9 percent of the 29,000 or so petitions Obama has received, making him slightly more merciful than Richard Nixon by that measure. That nevertheless would represent a huge improvement from where Obama stood just six months ago.

Clemency Project 2014, the consortium of volunteer lawyers that has been helping the Justice Department sort through petitons, reports that it has been contacted by 36,000 federal prisoners and completed reviews for 34,000. Of those, about 2,150—just 6.3 percent—met the DOJ’s picky criteria for special consideration, which include having a minimal prior criminal record and completing at least 10 years of a sentence that would have been shorter under current law.

Even if Obama ends up helping thousands of people who do not belong in prison, thousands more will remain behind bars by the time he leaves office. Congress could do more by passing retroactive sentencing reform, which foundered this year on pre-election anxieties and fearmongering by mindlessly draconian legislators like Tom Cotton. “You can’t fix 30 years of bad policy overnight,” says Kevin Ring, vice president of Families Against Mandatory Minimums. “Every day, people are sentenced in federal court based not on what their judge thinks is appropriate, but on what Tip O’Neill, Strom Thurmond, and a bunch of other deceased lawmakers believed 30 years ago. It’s just ridiculous.”

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Pound Tumbles After UK Government Wins Brexit Suit In Northern Ireland Court

Moments ago sterling did what it has been doing so well these past few months, it tumbled by as much as 50 pips after the UK government won a Brexit suit in a Northern Ireland court: a Northern Irish judge rejected a pair of challenges to the Brexit process, removing at least one obstacle to Prime Minister Theresa May’s plan to begin severing ties with the European Union by the end of March. 

The Northern Irish High Court ruled that lawmakers don’t need to hold a vote to start the two-year countdown to Brexit. The judge also rejected a challenge based on Good Friday Peace Agreement.

But the court also said that it would defer to English courts on the wider issue of whether Prime Minister Theresa May and her ministers have the authority to invoke Article 50 of the EU Lisbon Treaty, the mechanism by which a nation can leave the bloc, without the explicit backing of the British parliament.

Reuters adds that Northern Ireland rights activist McCord will appeal the high court ruling to the UK Supreme Court, however according to ING analyst Petr Krpata, the decision reduced the probability that article 50 won’t get triggered, Bloomberg reported.

In the immediate aftermath, GBP/USD dropped 0.32% to day low of 1.2125 while EUR climbs to 0.89941 against the pound in sharp moves. GBP/USD next support at 1.2118; EUR/GBP resistance at 0.9027. Cable now trading -0.21% at 1.2140; EUR/GBP +0.33% at 0.89874.

via http://ift.tt/2eCoxtU Tyler Durden