Month: December 2016

Submitted by Alex Thomas via Intellihub.com,

With a stroke of the pen President Obama has unilaterally declared vast swaths of land in Utah and Nevada as two new national monuments, thus putting them under control of the federal government.

Startlingly, the area in Nevada includes the site of the infamous Bundy Ranch standoff as well as land very close to the Bundy Ranch itself. With this move Obama has possibly triggered another armed standoff while also heading off any moves set to be made by incoming president Donald Trump.

A “fact sheet” put out by the White House reads:

Today, President Obama will designate two new national monuments, protecting sacred sites, spectacular scenery, and important natural and cultural resources in the desert landscapes of southeastern Utah and southern Nevada. The creation of the Bears Ears National Monument in Utah and the Gold Butte National Monument in Nevada follow years of robust public input from tribes, local elected officials, and diverse stakeholders, and draws from legislation introduced in Congress.

 

In addition to protecting more land and water than any Administration in history, President Obama has taken unprecedented steps to elevate the voices of Native peoples in the management of our natural resources.  Today’s actions build on this important work, and further demonstrate the President’s commitment to protecting sacred sites and our land, water and wildlife for future generations.

 

 

[…]

 

Gold Butte National Monument

 

Located in Clark County, Nevada just northeast of the outskirts of Las Vegas, the Gold Butte National Monument spans nearly 300,000 acres and will protect significant cultural resources, important geological formations, and vital plant and wildlife habitat. The monument will provide critical protections for important Native American historical sites, as well as areas that are currently used for traditional purposes by tribes. Notably, the area includes abundant rock art, archeological artifacts, and rare fossils, including recently discovered dinosaur tracks dating back hundreds of millions of years. In recent years these resources have faced increasing damage from threats such as deliberate destruction and vandalism, and today’s designation will help ensure that these cultural and archaeological treasures are better protected.

 

The monument will serve as an important connection between already protected lands, including Lake Mead Recreation Area and the Grand Canyon-Parashant National Monument across the Arizona border, protecting key wildlife corridors for large mammals such as desert bighorn sheep and mountain lions, and vital habitat for the threatened Mojave desert tortoise. Additionally, the monument will protect important historic resources. Structures that detail western ranching heritage can still be found in the Gold Butte area, as well as an early twentieth-century abandoned mining town and sites associated with Spanish explorers from the late eighteenth century.

 

Today’s action follows decades of local support from tribes, local stakeholders and conservationists, and draws from legislation that was first introduced in 2008.

Right now it is extremely difficult to confirm exactly how much of the land in and around the Bundy Ranch is now a national monument but a map put out by the Las Vegas Review seems to line up directly with the Bundy grazing allotment.

“Obama just designated the Bundy Ranch a national monument”

Vocativ is reporting that multiple individuals involved with the original Bundy standoff have already made it clear that they plan to stand up to this latest federal tyranny.

“Members of the self-styled militias that swarmed to the aid of Cliven Bundy outside of Las Vegas in 2014 — and who later joined the rancher’s sons to seize a federal wildlife refuge in rural Oregon — said they were readying for another showdown. Obama’s move on Wednesday to protect 300,000 acres of federal land around Gold Butte, close to the Bundy ranch, comes as two dozen people await trials for their roles in the Nevada and Oregon standoffs, which emboldened right-wing militants across America and became a powerful symbol of anti-government sentiment,” read the report.

 

“Get your gear ready,” wrote Jon Ritzheimer, one of the men who used handguns and assault rifles to hole up in Oregon’s Malheur National Wildlife Refuge for 41 days last year. “Obama just designated the Bundy Ranch a national monument.”

 

“Others with ties to patriot groups and militia movements online responded with a bit more force. “Locked and loaded ready to go,” wrote Chris Border, a member of the Cliven Bundy’s Army! Facebook group, which boasts more than 2,000 members. “Tired of this crap and time to do something.”

One has to wonder what exactly are the reasons for this new land grab by President Obama in the last days of his presidency. It’s extremely hard to imagine that it is not at least partially connected to the Bundy’s and the standoffs in both Nevada and Oregon.

More importantly, this area may actually include land that has documented precious metals throughout it as detailed in the video report below.

More information as to the exact implications of this massive land grab are sure to be released in the coming days and will be covered here extensively.

Note: An interesting discussion about the implications surrounding Obama’s new land grab was also recently released by patriots in the area, which can be found in the video below.

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In the latest macro update from JPM’s Adam Crisafuli, the strategist writes that the Trumpflation rally which more than doubled the market’s YTD gains since the Trump election, has gotten ahead of itself and that “it seems like a lot of headwinds that have been accumulating below the surface for weeks are quietly moving to the fore.“

Here are the details:

Specifically, the initial Trump/Ryan fiscal enthusiasm is getting tempered as investors focus on the details of tax reform, the likelihood of infrastructure spending, and the potential for negative trade actions (this has been discussed throughout the press over the last week).

 

Note that while investors haven’t been without Trump skepticism, most of the doubt concerns timing (when the Trump policies will be enacted) and not magnitude or efficacy (i.e. it is still the overwhelmingly consensus view that Trump’s “pro-growth” agenda will materially help growth once it takes effect) although this dynamic is starting to gradually adjust (there is more anxiety around efficacy).

 

Meanwhile, the conciliatory and anodyne nature of Trump’s initial post-victory rhetoric has shifted back to the pre-11/8 tone and the tweeting is actually growing more frequent.

 

Away from domestic politics, China worries continue to mount as CNY weakness persists (currency outflows are expected to intensify during the opening months of ’17 as quotas get refreshed) and Taiwan/Washington tensions build.

 

Bottom Line – the SPX hasn’t really moved since ~12/8 and all the major US indices will finish the year w/respectable gains.  However, the Trump/Ryan enthusiasm (which has by far been the biggest contributor to the stock rally) is certainly waning (or at least suffering more scrutiny).

And as a bonus, here are JPM’s key preliminary catalysts for 2017:

• CES – the Consumer Electronics Show formally runs from Jan 5-8 in Las Vegas but “media days” take place Jan 3-4. 
• US Dec jobs report Fri 1/6.
• Obama “farewell speech” on Tues Jan 10. 
• ICR consumer conf.  Jan 9-11.  Orlando. 
• Yellen will host a town hall meeting with educators from across the country.  There will be a Q&A.  Thurs 1/12 7pmET. 
• US bank earnings season kicks off Fri 1/13 (BAC, FHN, JPM, PNC, and WFC all report that day).
• Earnings – week of Mon 1/16 is the first big one of the CQ4 earnings season.
• World Economic Forum 1/17-20 in Davos.
• ECB – first ECB decision of the year will occur on Jan 19.
• Trump inauguration Fri 1/20.
• Trump priorities – Trump will have a finite stock of political capital but a broad agenda, including tax reform (individual and corporate), infrastructure spending, deregulation (ACA,
• Frank, fiduciary rule, etc.), immigration reform, trade deal adjustments, Supreme Court nominees (at least one).  What parts of the platform are prioritized and which get deemphasized? 
• Trump fiscal specifics – what are the particulars of the tax reform bills – rates, deductions, etc.?  How will the fiscal priorities be sequenced?  Will corporate and individual tax reform get tackled separately, in which case the latter may not happen until the end of ’17 or early ’18?  Will Republicans utilize “reconciliation” to pass tax reform (which could limit the scope of fiscal stimulus given the need for any legislation passed in this manner to be deficit-neutral) or seek the support of some Democrats (which could dilute GOP priorities)?  Can Republicans secure relative unanimity in the Senate to even utilize reconciliation (the GOP will have 52 seats in 2017 but at least 8 of them could raise objections to some parts of the Trump fiscal agenda)?
• Fed appointment decisions – Trump has two appointments to immediately make to the Federal Reserve Board.  Also, Yellen’s term as Chair ends 2/3/18 and she will likely serve until that date although speculation of her replacement should kick into high gear around the spring/summer of ’17. 
• Foreign policy – does Trump unequivocally express support for important and historic US military alliances such as NATO?  What actions are taken in retaliation for cyberattacks waged against the US over the last several months?  Where does Trump go on his first foreign trips (these are usually seen as a signal of foreign policy priorities for any incoming president)?  Trump will quickly need to formulate specific policies w/regards to China and the South China Sea, North Korea’s nuclear program, and Russia’s behavior on its western border.  Does the recent antagonism towards China over the “One China” policy persist?  According to media reports, Obama has communicated to Trump how the NK nuclear program is the single largest foreign policy challenge facing the US.  Also it will be interesting to hear Trump’s view on sustaining the sanctions against Russia (for the unlawful seizure of Crimea) and retaining the Iran nuclear deal. 
• Oil – OPEC and non-OPEC committee preparing Jan 21-22 Vienna meeting
• Japan – there is speculation Abe could call elections in the Jan timeframe.
• US banks – the Fed will prob. publish the ’17 CCAR/stress test criteria around the end of Jan (the criteria was released Jan 28, 2016 for the last testing cycle). 
• US GDP – the Q4 GDP number will be published Fri 1/27. 
• Italy – Italian Constitutional Court to hold hearing on legitimacy of Italian electoral law on Jan 24.
• Fed – first Fed decision of the year will occur on Feb 1.
• Netherlands will have national elections Mar 15.
• Fed meeting – first press conf./dot plot decision of the year is Mar 15. 
• G20 Fin Min/central bank governors meeting Mar 17-18 in Germany. 
• China’s National People’s Congress (NPC) usually takes place in mid-Mar; the gov’t will formally publish its 2017 economic objectives at this event.
• US debt ceiling – the debt limit has been suspended since late ’15 but is due to be reinstated on Mar 16, 2017.
• EU Leaders Summit Mar 25 – this could be the forum at which the UK formally triggers Article 50.
• WFC’s “living will” – WFC will resubmit its living will in the Mar timeframe.  Normally this wouldn’t be a major event but if WFC’s living will is deemed inadequate again the Fed could raise the company’s capital requirements. 
• France first-round presidential election Apr 23 (run-off is May 7).
• US Treasury publishes semi-annual currency report around Apr timeframe (investors will watch China’s designation closely and if it gets labeled a currency manipulator).
• US gov’t funding – current spending legislation will keep the gov’t funding until Apr 28
• G7 Leaders Summit May 26-27 in Italy. 
• Italy – new elections are likely in the June timeframe. 
• China/MSCI – MSCI will announce the result of the China A shares inclusion proposal as part of the 2017 Market Classification Review in June 2017. 
• G20 Leaders Summit Jul 7-8 2017 in Germany. 
• German elections – the next German elections will be held between Aug and Oct 2017.   

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In case some of you were duped into believing this was evidence that proved Russia hacked the US elections, John McAfee would like to remind you that you’re probably a high tier retard and would believe virtually anything your government told you.

Crazy, but brilliant, John said “if it looks like the Russians did it, then I can guarantee you it was not the Russians.”

The Joint Analysis Report from the FBI contains an appendix that lists hundreds of IP addresses that were supposedly “used by Russian civilian and military intelligence services.” While some of those IP addresses are from Russia, the majority are from all over the world, which means that the hackers constantly faked their location.
 
McAfee argues that the report is a “fallacy,” explaining that hackers can fake their location, their language, and any markers that could lead back to them. Any hacker who had the skills to hack into the DNC would also be able to hide their tracks, he said
 
“If I was the Chinese and I wanted to make it look like the Russians did it, I would use Russian language within the code, I would use Russian techniques of breaking into the organization,” McAfee said, adding that, in the end, “there simply is no way to assign a source for any attack.”
 
However, McAfee does see a problem with the National Security Agency (NSA) being able to listen in on every conversation and read every text message and email of every American. Rather than focusing on disrupting the bad guys in foreign countries, McAfee thinks that “all of that effort has been placed on a country that is afraid of its own citizens.”
 
He claims that the only way he has been able to fully block the NSA from infecting his phone with spyware is by using a flip-phone too old to be hacked. He even goes as far as to call the iPhone the “ultimate spy device.”

Since the stakes are so high, thermonuclear war and all, the least the CIA and other wonderful intelligence agencies can do is provide sufficient evidence to the American people before they get annihilated under the winds of a 10,000 degree winter breeze. Or is that too much to ask? Judging by just about everything they’ve told us over the past 15 years, I’m inclined to believe the exact opposite is true.
 
Kim dot Com agrees with McAfee’s assertions. This isn’t exactly rocket science.

Content originally generated at iBankCoin.com

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Following November's exuberant spike to Jan 2015 highs, December saw Chicago Purchasing Managers lose some Trumpian hope as the index slid from 57.6 to 54.6 with new orders, production, and inventories all fell. It seems the 'hard' industrial production and durable goods data was right after all and the sentiment-fueled 'soft' surveys once again over-reached.

Stagflation once again looms, as MNI reports, the December decline was led by a slowdown in New Orders, which fell 6.7 points to 56.5, giving up most of the November gain that had left it running at the fastest pace since June. Production also subtracted from the Barometer, ending 2016 at the lowest level since October, while Order Backlogs moved back into contraction. Employment held firm, remaining below 50 for the second month in a row, while Supplier Deliveries was the only component to gain ground in December.

The Inventories Indicator moved back into contraction, sitting below the break-even mark for the eighth time this year, with some firms reluctant to add to their stock levels as we approach the end of the year.

Meanwhile, inflationary pressures at the factory-gate edged higher having eased slightly last month. Prices Paid rose 1.2 points to 58.0 in December, the indicator's second highest outturn of 2016. Panellists in our survey reported that the prices of metals, plastics, and transportation costs were all increasing with another commenting that "prices are headed higher".

This month's special question asked panellists how they expected the new administration's policies to impact their business in 2017.

Over half of total respondents expected their business to prosper, with many citing anticipated tax reforms and deregulation as positive for business. However, 40% thought it would have no impact and 9% said they anticipated a negative impact on their activities.

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For a glimpse into just how insane modern finance and capital markets are, look no further than Italy’s thrice insolvent (in three years) bank Monte Paschi, which after failing to finalize a private, is finalizing the terms of its nationalization with the Italian government: a rescue which will cost Italian taxpayers at least €6.6 billion, and likely more.

The bailout, however, is not the punchline. What is, is that according to Reuters, Monte dei Paschi di Siena – which has yet to be bailed out, plans to issue no less than €15 billion of debt next year “to restore liquidity and boost investor confidence.”

According to daily La Repubblica, Monte dei Paschi would issue the debt in the form of bonds and commercial paper. A third of that debt would have a short-term maturity date, while the rest would mature in three years, it added. The bank could not immediately be reached for comment.

In other words, when the bank was on its own, without the explicit banking of the government, and certainly not the ECB which confirmed that Monte Paschi’s deposit flight was greater than expected, no investor would touch it with a ten foot pole. However, once the bank has the full “backing” of the Italian nation, which will own at least 75% of the common equity after the bank is nationalized, there is a line of people waiting to hand over “other people’s money” to the bank to generate a modest return,

Reuters confirms as much, stating that the debt sales would be supported by government guarantees which form part of a liquidity scheme for banks in need which the European Commission has agreed to extend for six months. Of course, by providin the insolvent bank this blanket guarantee, the Commission would once again be violating one of its core principles: under EU state aid rules, banks with a capital shortfall cannot benefit from general liquidity support schemes, meaning the Commission takes decisions on a case-by-case basis, as it did for Monte dei Paschi, which may be insolvent, but it is systematically important so anything goes.

Monte dei Paschi, Italy’s third biggest lender and the world’s oldest, had to ask Rome for help after failing to win investor backing for a share issue meant to keep it afloat. As a reminder, on Monday, the ECB revised the size of the bank’s capital shortfall by 76% higher, and estimated its funding needs at 8.8 billion euros, compared with a 5 billion euro gap previously indicated by the bank. This led to a greater taxpayer contribution for the bailout, and an angry reaction from Italy’s economy minister, Pier Carlo Padoan.

The Treasury may have to put up around 6.6 billion euros to salvage the lender, including 2 billion euros to compensate around 40,000 retail bond holders, the Bank of Italy said on Thursday, while the rest will come from the forced conversion of the bank’s subordinated bonds into shares. Should the bank run continue or accelerate, the bank’s funding needs, and thus taxpayer inflows, are only set to increase.

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Via Dana Lyons' Tumblr,

The Global Dow Index is running into its long-term Down trendline stemming from the 2007 all-time peak.

Here in the U.S., equity investors have been a bit spoiled as they’ve watched index after index break into all-time high ground this year. Around the globe, investors have not been so lucky. Yes, most international indices have rallied solidly this year. However, with few exceptions, the rallies have still left these international markets shy of their all-time highs. One illustration of this situation can be seen in a chart of the Global Dow Index (GDOW).

We’ve posted many times on the GDOW due to its reliable conformity to technical charting tools, despite the fact that very little money is traded off of it. Additionally, we have found it to be an accurate barometer of the state of the global equity market. Specifically, the GDOW is an equally-weighted index of 150 of the world’s largest stocks. While this includes U.S.-based companies, its heavy dose of international exposure has led to its aforementioned position below its all-time high.

Furthermore, it is currently running into potential resistance in the form of its post-2007 Down trendline connecting the 2007, 2014 and 2015 tops.

Will this hold? We don’t have a crystal ball, but it has briefly repelled the GDOW thus far. And while most U.S.-based indices have succeeded in reaching all-time high ground, it is important to note that such circumstances are not unanimous. Along with the Value Line Geometric Composite, there are still some key hurdles facing global stocks as we head into 2017.

*  *  *

More from Dana Lyons, JLFMI and My401kPro.

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Submitted by Charles Hugh-Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The "fake news" is that we've never been healthier, healthcare costs are under control and our economy has fully "recovered."

We've heard a lot about "fake news" from those whose master narratives are threatened by alternative sources and analyses. We've heard less about the master narratives being threatened: the fomenting of mass hysteria, which turns the populace into an easily manipulated and managed herd, and induced insanity, a longer-term marketing-based narrative that causes the populace to ignore the self-destructive consequences of accepting the fad/ ideology/ mindset being pushed as "good" and "normal."

In terms of "fake news," it's hard to beat the mainstream media and its handlers' attempts to whip up mass hysteria via unsubstantiated claims that Russian hackers working for Putin deprived Hillary of the presidency. The campaign to spark mass hysteria was launched with great precision, unleashing the overwhelming forces of endless repetition (the marketer's favorite tool) and appeals to national security authorities: The C.I.A., F.B.I, and all the other security agencies purportedly concur that Russia "hacked" (whatever that means) the U.S. election.

The intent of the campaign was painfully obvious: by wheeling out the big guns of authority without any actual evidence, the campaign's designers hoped the public would automatically assume the bizarre, outlandish claim must be "true," even though no evidence was submitted to substantiate this fact-free claim, and respond as planned, i.e. willingly join a mass hysteria herd in favor of discrediting the U.S.election results.

Did the "hackers" change the election results issued by voting machines? Did they "hack" the election totals? Wouldn't there be tell-tale forensic evidence of such tampering? How else could "hackers" change the election other than by changing votes and vote totals?

Or was the media campaign to generate mass hysteria based on nothing but purposefully vague and unsubstantiated claims of Russia-inspired "fake news" that undermined the election by questioning the mainstream media's biased coverage of the presidential campaign?

"Fake news" is of course the staple of marketing products that end up killing the unwary consumers who buy the hype. The classic example is the cigarette/ tobacco industry, which ran adverts for decades proclaiming absurdities such as the health benefits of smoking (other than dying a horrible, needless death), the "fact" that doctors preferred one brand of cigarette over the other brands, and so on.

The industry famously went to truly monumental lengths to hide the facts about the destructive consequences of smoking from the public, and aggressively attacked any evidence that smoking was remarkably unhealthy as "unscientific," i.e. beating back the truth with The Big Lie.

That a form of consumption that killed the consumers was unquestionably accepted not just as "normal" but as cool/hip for decades illustrates the staying power of induced insanity. Mass hysteria eventually wears off, as it overloads the emotional circuitry of the target audience; humans soon become desensitized to the triggers used to generate mass hysteria, and it takes heavier and heavier doses of propaganda to maintain the feverishly herd-inducing hysteria.

Eventually, the populace habituates to the stimulus and becomes exhausted by the hysteria.

Induced Insanity, on the other hand, is not an emotional state–it is a state of mind and a state of perception that filters and interprets inputs to produce the desired output— an acceptance of insanity as "normal" and "good."

For example, eating mountains of food that "tastes good" is positive and normal. Never mind that we're eating/consuming ourselves to death:

Or that our medical costs are so out of control that they're bankrupting households, enterprises and eventually,the entire economy:

Or that much of the money is spent on shuffling paperwork/ claims and counter-claims, complying with thousands of pages of regulations and dealing with the systemic fraud our system invites and rewards:

Induced insanity doesn't just describe our acceptance of ill health and a doomed healthcare system; it also describes our blind acceptance of an economy that's throttling small business:

The "fake news" is that we've never been healthier, healthcare costs are under control and our economy has fully "recovered." These sustained "fake news" campaigns are intended not to induce hysteria, but an enduring acceptance of what is visibly destructive and insane.

Food for thought as we enter 2017. Always start every inquiry with a simple question: cui bono–to whose benefit?

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In the latest snub to the Obama administration, a nationwide Syrian cease-fire brokered by Russia and Turkey – one which explicitly avoided US participation – went into effect at midnight and was holding steady on Friday despite minor violations, marking what Bloomberg said is “a potential breakthrough in a conflict that has been shredding high-level peace initiatives for over five years.”

And all it took was the absence of the US to bring hope of peace back to Syria.

The Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported clashes early Friday between troops and rebels in the central province of Hama and near the capital, Damascus, but said there have been no reports of civilian casualties since the truce began. The group also reported an aerial attack on the rebel-held Barda Valley near Damascus. Cited by Bloomberg, opposition activist Mazen al-Shami, who is based in the Damascus suburb of Douma, said minor clashes nearby left one rebel wounded. Activist Ahmad al-Masalmeh, in the southern Daraa province, said government forces had opened fire on rebel-held areas.

Several past attempts at halting the fighting have failed. As with previous agreements, the current cease-fire excludes both the al-Qaida-affiliated Fatah al-Sham Front, which fights alongside other rebel factions, and the Islamic State group.

As reported yesterday when news of the unexpected ceasefire, which could lead to a peace treaty, broke Vladimir Putin said that the cease-fire will be guaranteed by both Moscow and Turkey, and the agreement has been welcomed by Iran. Moscow and Tehran provide crucial military support to Syrian President Bashar Assad, while Turkey has long served as a rear base and source of supplies for the rebels. Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif called the cease-fire a “major achievement” in a tweet Friday. “Let’s build on it by tackling the roots of extremist terror,” he added, as Bloomberg reports.

Russia said the deal was signed by seven of Syria’s major rebel factions, though none of them immediately confirmed it, and one denied signing it.

The truce came on the heels of a Russian-Turkish agreement earlier this month to evacuate the last rebels from eastern Aleppo after they were confined to a tiny enclave by a government offensive. The retaking of all of Aleppo marked Assad’s greatest victory since the start of the 2011 uprising against his family’s four-decade rule.

“The defeat of the terrorists in Aleppo is an important step toward ending the war,” Assad said in an interview with TG5, an Italian TV station, adding that the capture of the city does not mean that the war has ended because “terrorists” are still in Syria.

* * *

But what is most notable about the ceasefire is that the United States has been demonstratively left out of both agreements, reflecting the deterioration of relations between Moscow and Washington, and to an extent the decline in US-Turkish relations. Meanwhile, like Russia, Syria is hopeful that the arrival of president Trump means a new peace in the region. Assad told TG5 “we are more optimistic, with caution,” about the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump, who has suggested greater cooperation with Russia against extremist groups.

“We can say part of the optimism could be related to better relation between the United States and Russia,” Assad said, speaking in English.

“Mr. Trump, during his campaign – (said) that his priority is fighting terrorism, and we believe that this is the beginning of the solution, if he can implement what he announced,” Assad said in the interview, which was apparently filmed before the cease-fire was announced.

Meanwhile, the US was desperate to pretend it still has clout in the regional conflict.  James Dobbins, a former senior U.S. diplomat, said the lack of American involvement in the talks between Russia, Iran and Turkey did not preclude the United States from being a major player in the region. In this case, it was frozen out because Obama leaves office in less than a month and because Turkey and Russia are at odds with the United States over its Syria policy and other issues, said Dobbins, a fellow at RAND, a research organization.

Trump has said he would cooperate more closely with Russia to fight terrorism but it was unclear what that policy would look like, given resistance from the Pentagon and the U.S. intelligence community to closer cooperation with Russia on Syria.

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