Trump’s Crackdown on Immigration Will Backfire: New at Reason

Mexican borderGovernment failures come in two basic forms. The first kind is not achieving the intended result—say job training that leads to no jobs or a Marine recruiting campaign that gets few takers. The second kind is doing damage that wouldn’t have been done otherwise. It’s roughly the difference between a cigar that fails to light and one that explodes.

The immigration measures announced Wednesday by President Donald Trump fall in the latter category. The consequences will mostly be more or less the opposite of what he and his supporters imagine.

His promised wall is supposed to stop the flow of unauthorized immigrants and reduce the number of undocumented foreigners living here. But it’s not likely to do either. Steve Chapman explains more.

View this article.

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More Executive Orders Coming: A Preview Of Key Events In Washington Today

Having concluded a blistering, tumultuous first week, in which Trump signed no less than 17 executive orders, the President is set to begin his second week the way he finished on Friday: by signing another executive order, this one reportedly aimed at foreign worker visas.

As Bloomberg reported overnight, the Trump administration has “drafted an executive order aimed at overhauling the work-visa programs technology companies depend on to hire tens of thousands of employees each year. “

Here’s a look at what else is scheduled events of interest today in Washington.

  • 9am: President Trump hosts breakfast with small business leaders
  • 10:30am: Trump signs executive order
  • 1:30pm: Trump holds meeting with director of Domestic Policy Council, Andrew Bremberg
  • 4pm: Trump meets with staff from National Economic Council
  • 1:30pm: Briefing with Press Sec. Sean Spicer
  • 8am: Vice President Mike Pence meets with King Abdullah II of Jordan

CONGRESS:

  • Senate meets at 3pm; cloture vote planned on nomination of Rex Tillerson to be secretary of state
  • House meets at noon; plans to consider seven bills under suspension of the rules

HEALTH-CARE:

  • 9am: Academy Health holds its 2017 National Health Policy Conference, January 30-31

TRANSPORTATION:

  • Washington Area New Automobile Dealers Association holds the 75th Washington Auto Show; Jan. 27-Feb. 5

Source: Bloomberg

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Gartman: “Our Propensity Is To Find Modest Long Exposure Today”

With speculation that the global economy, and equity markets, may be poised for the next leg lower (simply because it is difficult seeing global economic surprise indexes going any higher from current multi-year highs…

 

… we were waiting for Gartman to chime in, hopefully giving the “all clear.” Luckily, he did that overnight, to wit:

Here at TGL, in our retirement account… the only money we actually “run”… we are up 1.4% for the year-to-date and we are modestly net long of equities for we are long of a business development corporation that we buy, amongst other high dividend paying corporations, to try to capture the dividend stream and which gives us a modest market exposure; were long of cotton; we are short of the EUR via an ETF and we are long, of course, of gold in EUR and Yen denominated terms.

 

Our “net” equity market exposure then is relatively minor but given the longer term trend and given the minor correction to the downside over the course of the past three or four sessions, accompanied by rather obviously declining volume on the exchanges, our propensity is to find modest long exposure today. We may do so via simple long only equity ETF until we have conviction once again on viable, specific market sectors.

And yet, just a few paragraphs lower, Gartman adds:

The President is sending a signal to the market that trade will be more tenuous and tendentious in the future and almost certainly the trade with both nations will fall sharply this year, for what businessman or woman will want to increase trade when it is possible at a moment’s notice for the President to make that trade, if not impossible, clearly more and more difficult. It will become worse. Of that we are certain.

Oh well, at least puts are very cheap.

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Trump Will Announce Supreme Court Pick On Tuesday At 8:PM

Refuting media reports that the Trump administration may announce its Supreme Court pick as early as Monday morning, moments ago Trump tweeted that he has made his “decision on who I will nominate for The United States Supreme Court. It will be announced live on Tuesday at 8:00 P.M.”

Trump’s tweet conflicts with what he said last week when he previewed his SCOTUS decision for Thursday:

As we wrote last week, while various media outlets reported that William Pryor of Alabama, Neil Gorsuch of Colorado and Thomas Hardiman of Pennsylvania are the 3 mostly likely people to get the nod, the Los Angeles Times went one step further by declaring Gorsuch the most likely ultimate winner. 

While it is likely that Gorsuch will be Trump’s candidate, the real fight will begin after Trump’s pick is announced as Democrats in the Senate, now led by Chuck Schumer, have vowed to block any candidate not deemed “mainstream.”  Appearing on Rachel Maddow, Schumer pretty much vowed to fight any Trump pick put forward, mainstream or not. “It’s hard for me to imagine a nominee that Donald Trump would choose, that would get Republican support, that we could support.”

Under current rules, Republicans will need at least eight Democrats to support Trump’s nominee to overcome the 60-vote filibuster hurdle.  That said, Ted Cruz has already started lobbying for the “nuclear option” that would lower the confirmation vote threshold to a simple majority and pave the way for Republicans to confirm any Justice put forward, without Democrat support. 

While Democrats will undoubtedly blast the proposed rule change, they will likely “forget” that they first employed the “nuclear option” in 2013 to confirm several of President Obama’s nominations, via simple majority votes, over the objection of Republicans.

In 2013, Democrats, who at the time held the majority in the Senate, triggered the nuclear option to confirm several of President Obama’s nominees. The move did not apply to the Supreme Court.

 

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said recently he regrets Democrats’ 2013 decision, which is now easing the confirmation of President Trump’s Cabinet nominees.

We would also point out that Democrats “changed the rules” in 2010, after losing their filibuster proof majority on the death of Massachusetts Democrat Ted Kennedy, to ram through one of the destructive pieces of legislation in recent history, Obamacare.

In short, expect even more fireworks if Trump rams his SCOTUS pick over the loud cries of democrats.

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Trump Refugee Ban Yields Protests, Court Ruling, Clarifications, U.S. Commando, 8-Year-Old Among Dead in Yemen Counter-terror Raid, Philippines Police Suspend Drug War to Combat Police Corruption: A.M. Links

  • A federal judge in New York in temporarily halted portions of President Trump’s executive order suspending entry to the U.S. from seven “countries of concern,” ordering that legal permenent residents and others already approved to enter the U.S. be allowed to do so. Later on over the weekend, John Kelly, the secretary of homeland security, issued a statement that all legal permanent residents from the countries of concern would be permitted. Democrats in the Senate say they will introduce legislation to overturn the order; some Senate Republicans have also criticized the move. Trump spoke with the king of Saudi Arabia and the crown prince of the United Arab Emirates, and according to the White House they agreed to set up safe zones for refugees in the Middle East. Uber turned off surge pricing during protests against the order at JFK Airport, where taxicabs had joined protesters. It was called a strike breaker for extending the courtesy and is now the target of a boycott for its CEO sitting on an advisory council for Trump.
  • A U.S. commando was killed in the first counter-terrorism raid in Yemen since 2014, and the first operation ordered by Trump. The U.S. says it killed 14 militants while local reports say about 30 people, including 10 women and children, including the 8-year-old daughter of Anwar al-Awlaki, were killed.
  • Two suspects are in custody after gunmen opened fire in a mosque in Quebec City, killing at least six and injuring more than a dozen.
  • Police in the Philippines are suspending the drug war to combat corruption among their ranks.
  • Hidden Figures won Best Performance by a Cast Ensemble in a Motion Picture at the Sceen Actors’ Guild Awards.
  • The AFC defeated the NFC in the Pro-Bowl held in Hawaii.

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Americans Spend More Than They Earn For 9th Straight Month As Savings Rate Tumbles To 2015 Lows

Personal income growth disappointed in December, rising a less-than-expected 0.3% MoM. Of course, that did not stop Americans from spending as personal consumption rose 0.5% MoM in December. This is the 9th month in a row of higher annual spending growth than income growth…

Sadly for all those hyping and hoping for wage growth – it is stagnant again…

 

Which coupled with the rising inflation means real disposable income growth is its slowest since 2015

 

But the need to spend, spend, spend, sends the savings rate tumbling to just 5.4% – the lowest since March 2015.

 

Sustainable?

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French Bond Risk Spikes To 3-Year High After Radical Left Cheers Hamon’s Win In Socialist Primary

The final slate of candidates for French national elections in April-May is nearly complete, and judging by French government bond risk spiking, the decision to choose radical left wing Benoit Hamon to represent the French Socialists has investors worried about the fiscal future of the country.

 

As MishTalk.com's Michael Shedlock notes, The radical Left is cheering.
 

hamon-wins

Partial results from about 60 per cent of the polling stations showed that Mr Hamon, a former education minister, attracted 59 per cent of the vote in the primary run-off, against Manuel Valls, the former prime minister, who secured 41 per cent of the vote. More than 1m voters turned out for the final round of the primary.

Mr Hamon’s win marks a fierce rejection of the business-friendly policies implemented by President François Hollande. It reveals a desire among Socialist party sympathisers to return to core leftwing policies after Mr Hollande’s unpopular term.

Radicals Delirious With Joy

It’s quite a hoot if not outright insane to label Hollande’s policies “business-friendly”.

Yet, compared to Hamon, nearly anyone would look business-friendly.

Benoît Hamon’s Platform

Benoît Hamon is a 49-year-old former education minister. Here is his platform.

  1. Universal basic income.
  2. Tax on robots.
  3. Progressive taxation of wealth.
  4. Reduction of tax loopholes.
  5. 32-hour working week.
  6. Legalization of marijuana.
  7. National conference on “environmental democracy”.
  8. 50% renewable energy by 2025.
  9. Differentiated VAT for the “most virtuous products”.
  10. Ban on pesticides.
  11. Better repayments for dental care.
  12. A “Sixth Republic”.
  13. Transformation of the Senate into “college of territories”.
  14. The right of foreigners to vote in local elections.
  15. “Humanitarian visa”  and redo of France a land of asylum.
  16. “Vote blanc”.  Hamon supports a provision that takes into account a vote for “none of the above”.
  17. Media antitrust law.
  18. Labor law repeal to provide additional protection to employees.
  19. Help facilitate the takeover of SCOP companies by employees.
  20. Recognize burn-out as an occupational disease.

The above 20 points translated from Benoît Hamon, favorite of the primary: his very left program.

Amazing Twitter Performance

A couple months ago was unknown. A week ago he won Hamon 35% of the vote in a seven-way rate. Today Hamon trounced Valls in a two-way match, winning the primary.

How did he get there? The new-fashioned way. Hamon has a huge following on social media including Twitter.

5-6 Way Race

french-candidates

Source: French Presidential Election 2017

It has not yet been confirmed if the Democratic Movement  (Mouvement démocrate) will contest this presidential election. Bayrou has not yet decided.

Slate of Candidates

french-election-2017-01-29

Source: French Election Polls

With only 5% of the vote, one can rule out Bayrou if he does run. But until that decision, there is a possibility Bayrou steps out and backs one of the other candidates.

LFI (La France Insoumise) Unsubmissive France candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon is a current MEP and former former co-president of the Left Party. He will splinter the Left if he stays in.

Should Mélenchon decide to step aside and support Hamon, extreme possibilities such as Hamon vs Le Pen are not out of the question.

I am not suggesting this is likely, but little would surprise me at this point.

Fillon Stumbles

Meanwhile, it’s important to note that former poll leader Fillon has slipped. He seriously damaged his credibility in a payment scandal involving his wife.

For details, please see Prosecutor Investigates Leading French Candidate Fillon for Paying his Wife €500,000 from MP Funds.

If prosecuted, Fillon threatened to step down.

Fillon’s Radical New Plan

In an effort to get his campaign on track, François Fillon Outlines Radical Economic Plan.

Speaking in front of more than 13,000 supporters in Paris, the Republican party nominee and election frontrunner rejected claims surrounding his wife, Penelope Fillon.

 

Mr Fillon sought on Sunday to divert attention back to his programme, laying out the most business-friendly, free-market economic platform in the presidential contest.

 

His proposals include scrapping the limit on weekly working hours, extending retirement age, slashing employment benefits and cutting 500,000 civil service jobs to fund tax breaks for companies — sticking largely to the radical platform that helped him win his party’s nomination in November.

Can Le Pen Win?

Cutting corporate taxes, slashing benefits, and firing 500,000 workers will not exactly please the Left.

My French readers suggest Fillon would trounce Le Pen. Color me extremely skeptical of that death announcement.

On many issues, Le Pen is far to the left of Fillon. And what about the Right? Would they prefer Hamon or Le Pen should that be the match-up?

The radicalization of Hamon and Fillon helps le Pen. Her chances are far better than most think.

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ECB Under Pressure As German Inflation Spikes To Highest Since 2013

German consumer prices accelerated at the fastest pace in three and a half years in January, leaving the ECB running out of excuses to maintain (or even extend) its stimulus measures. 

As Bloomberg notes, consumer prices rose 1.9 percent from a year ago, data from the Federal Statistics Office showed on Monday. That’s up from 1.7 percent the previous month and the highest rate since July 2013, though below the median estimate of 2 percent in a Bloomberg survey. Prices slid 0.8 percent from December.

The surge in German inflation since the end of last year is a potential political flashpoint in the country, which faces elections in September, as savers remain burdened with near-zero deposit rates. Calls are mounting for the ECB to start talks over winding down its bond-buying program, which is scheduled to run until at least the end of this year, though policy makers have generally urged caution until it’s clear price increases are being sustained in the euro area as a whole.

Simply put, the ‘union’ continues to creek under the one policy…

“Monetary policy can’t just cater to one country but to the entire euro-zone economy,” Ewald Nowotny, governor of Austria’s central bank said on Monday in Vienna before the data were published. “German developments are watched, but they are just a part.”

 

Nowotny said that while the ECB’s Governing Council will “surely” have to take a decision on the future of quantitative easing before the end of 2017, he doesn’t expect that to happen until after the summer.

And remember, Draghi already laid out the cost of exiting Europe, which in the case of Germany (and GERexit) is one in which the entire union owes them…

 

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Today Is Fred Korematsu’s Birthday, Which Seems About Right

What is it that Marx said about history occuring first as tragedy and then as farce?

President Donald Trump’s orders halting all refugees and barring all citizens from seven majority-Muslim countries are no farce but they strongly call to mind past instances where presidents have acted abominably toward suspect minorities. As it happens, today is the birthday of Fred Korematsu (1919-2005), the American citizen of Japanese descent who challenged Franklin Roosevelt’s Executive Order 9066 (1942), “which authorized that all individuals of Japanese ancestry were to be removed from their homes and forced to live in internment camps.” Korematsu is the subject of today’s Google doodle.

As odious as Roosevelt’s order was, it’s even worse that the Supreme Court upheld the constitutionality of the order, which was borne out of war-time and racist hysteria. In a 2004 review of Michelle Malkin’s book-length polemic defending the rounding up on U.S. citizens irrespective of any evidence that they posed a threat to the nation’s security, historian Eric Muller wrote:

Historians have shown that the chief causes of the Japanese American internment were ingrained anti-Asian racism, nativist and economic pressures from groups in California that had long wanted the Japanese gone, and the panic of wartime hysteria. As the Presidential Commission on the Wartime Relocation and Internment of Civilians said in its 1981 report to Congress, “The broad historical causes which shaped [the decisions to relocate and detain Japanese Americans] were race prejudice, war hysteria, and a failure of political leadership.”…

What supported [internment] was instead the sort of view that Gen. DeWitt expressed in 1942, when he said that “the Japanese race is an enemy race, and while many second and third generation Japanese born on United States soil, possessed of United States citizenship, have become ‘Americanized,’ the racial strains are undiluted.” What supported it was the sort of opinion voiced by California Attorney General (later U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice) Earl Warren when he argued that the absence of subversive activity by Japanese Americans proved that such activity was just around the corner. What supported it, in other words, was racism and wartime hysteria.

Muller notes that even as citizens of Japanese descent were being rounded up in the absence of any compelling evidence of divided loyalties or secret plans to sabotage the war effort, Americans of Italian and German heritage went about their business unmolested.

Germany was a more dangerous presence along the East Coast of the U.S. mainland for a far longer time than was Japan along the West Coast, and it twice landed saboteurs on Eastern shores. Germany had a network of spies whose existence did not need to be pieced together from vague references in decrypted diplomatic messages. And as for Malkin’s point that there were so many potential German-American and Italian-American saboteurs on the East Coast that it made sense to do nothing to them–well, that argument refutes itself.

Malkin’s book, of course, was written in the early years of the “Global War on Terror” (GWOT) and represented one of many attempts to assure people that this time, things were different. Racial anxiety was a thing of the past, goes this line of thinking, and we are simply calmly and cooly dealing with a real ideological enemy, radical Islam, that threatens our very existence. Presidents Ford, Carter, and Reagan officially apologized for the internment of Japanese-American citizens, and in the late 1980s, victims, who had lost their homes and wealth confiscated without any compensation, were given a token payment of $20,000 per person.

Donald Trump’s executive order has already been stayed by several judges and his administration has walked back the portion barring permanent residents from Iraq, Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen. Such quick course correction shouldn’t be mistaken for wisdom; it’s fully the product of protest, outrage, and legal pushback. Barely a week into his presidency, it’s clear that Trump and his administration doesn’t think deeply or seriously about many issues—the White House had not even discussed the order fully with the Department of Homeland Security or fully legally vetted its language and process before it went into effect.

Hovering over Trump’s executive order, now being defended by conservatives and other Trump apologists as righteous action in the GWOT, is the ghost of Fred Korematsu, who died in 2005. “I’ll never forget my government treating me like this. And I really hope that this will never happen to anybody else because of the way they look, if they look like the enemy of our country,” he once said. “Don’t be afraid to speak up. One person can make a difference, even if it takes forty years.”

Reason TV’s Alexis Garcia and Zach Weissmueller reported from Saturday’s protest at Los Angeles Airport:

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Why The Cold War Between Tech CEOs and Trump Is About To Go Nuclear

Over the weekend, openly defiant CEOs, particularly among the tech sector, expressed their displeasure with Trump’s Friday executive order on travel from seven Muslim countries with both words and deeds, among which the following (summary courtesy of Axios):

  • VCs funding the ACLU: Several venture capitalists, as well as a few entrepreneurs, took turns soliciting donations to the American Civil Liberties Union through social media and personally matching those donations.
  • Airbnb volunteers to help provide housing for impacted immigrants: The home-sharing company said that it will work with travelers and organizations to provide housing for those impacted by the executive order, whether through volunteer hosts or by funding housing.
  • Lyft and Uber commit millions of dollars to legal aid: On Sunday, Lyft said it will donate $1 million to the ACLU over the next four years. Later in the day, Uber said it will create a $3 million legal defense fund for impacted drivers, as well as provide legal assistance and compensate their lost wages.
  • Google is setting up a $2 million crisis fund: The search giant has set up a fund that will donate to the American Civil Liberties Union, Immigrant Legal Resource Center, International Rescue Committee, and UNHCR.

On Monday morning, former US Treasury Secretary Larry Summers, speaking in an interview with Bloomberg Television, said that he is “gratified” by what he heard from the tech community.  “As global businesses, they have a huge stake in the United States being a nation of the Statue of Liberty rather than being a nation of refugee camps.” He added that “they have a huge stake in the United States supporting an open and tolerant global system, they have that stake for their employees, their customers, they have it for the reputation of the United States and they have spoken out.”

That may be, but the biggest reason for the anger by tech CEOs at the Trump administration is a simple, and perhaps more selfish one. The reason for the simmering cold war between tech CEOs and Trump can be summarized in just three letters: H1-B. The bottom line is that tech CEOs fear Trump will single them out for outsourcing jobs or shut down the so-called H-1B visa program they use to hire high-skilled foreign employees for crucial engineering and technical jobs.

And, as Axios adds, White House officials say they are right to be nervous, especially about changes to the visa program. Chief strategist Steve Bannon and policy chief Stephen Miller are known to be deeply skeptical of the program, and will have a strong, vocal ally when Jeff Sessions gets confirmed as Attorney General. Some further observations:

Trump’s mixed messages: On the campaign trail, he promised to “end forever the use of H-1B as a cheap labor program.” He later signaled in a meeting with tech leaders that he’s most concerned about companies misusing the visas to displace lower-wage American workers.

How it works: Visas are capped at 65,000 a year, with 20,000 additional visas for foreign workers with master’s degrees. The demand for the visas is so high that the cap is usually exceeded within a few days of the application window opening. The visas are distributed to companies through a lottery system.

Tech companies such as Microsoft, Google, IBM, Cisco, Apple, Intel and Facebook say the visas are crucial for specialized jobs they can’t fill domestically because of a shortage of American graduates with the right technical skills. When CEOs spoke out over the weekend about the ban, they pointed out the importance of allowing the “best and brightest” to work in the U.S.

* * *

Which is why if a news report about Trump’s next imminent executive order is accurate, the simmering cold war between the tech CEOs and Trump is about to nuclear.

Bloomberg reports that the Trump administration has drafted an executive order aimed at overhauling the work-visa programs technology companies depend on to hire tens of thousands of employees each year.  If implemented, the reforms could force wholesale changes at India companies such as Infosys Ltd. and Wipro Ltd., and shift the way American companies like Microsoft Corp., Amazon.com Inc. and Apple Inc. recruit talent. Companies would have to try to hire American first and if they recruit foreign workers, priority would be given to the most highly paid.

The draft of Trump’s executive order covers an alphabet soup of visa programs, including H-1B, L-1, E-2 and B1. The first is a popular program with technology companies and is aimed at allowing them to bring in high-skill workers when they can’t find local hires with the appropriate skills. The legislation caps the number of people who can enter the U.S. annually at 85,000, including those with undergrad and master’s degrees.

“Our country’s immigration policies should be designed and implemented to serve, first and foremost, the U.S. national interest,” the draft proposal reads, according to a copy reviewed by Bloomberg. “Visa programs for foreign workers … should be administered in a manner that protects the civil rights of American workers and current lawful residents, and that prioritizes the protection of American workers — our forgotten working people — and the jobs they hold.”

The foreign work visas were originally established to help U.S. companies recruit from abroad when they couldn’t find qualified local workers. But in recent years, there have been allegations the programs have been abused to bring in cheaper workers from overseas to fill jobs that otherwise may go to Americans. The top recipients of the H-1B visas are outsourcers, primarily from India, who run the technology departments of large corporations with largely imported staff.

 

“If firms are using the program for cheap labor, I think it will affect them and they will have to pay workers more,” said Ron Hira, an associate professor at Howard University. “If tech firms are using the program for specialized labor, they may find there are more visas available.”

 

The Trump administration did not respond to a request for comment on the draft. The proposal is consistent with the president’s public comments on pushing companies to add more jobs to the U.S., from auto manufacturing to technology.

It’s not clear how much force the executive order would have if it is signed by the president. Congress is also working on visa reforms and the parties will have to cooperate to pass new laws. Zoe Lofgren, a Democratic congresswoman from California, introduced a bill last week to tighten requirements for the H-1B work visa program.

“My legislation refocuses the H-1B program to its original intent – to seek out and find the best and brightest from around the world, and to supplement the U.S. workforce with talented, highly-paid, and highly-skilled workers,” Lofgren said in a statement.

Meanwhile, as Bloomberg adds, India’s technology companies, led by Tata Consultancy Services Ltd, Infosys and Wipro, have argued they are helping corporations become more competitive by handling their technology operations with specialized staff. They also contend the visa programs allow them to keep jobs in the U.S. and that if they have to pay more for staff, they will handle more of the work remotely from less expensive markets like India. Trump, however, see things differently.

“Inspections and investigations in the past have shown no cases of wrongdoing by Indian IT services companies, which have always been fully compliant with the law,” said R Chandrashekhar, president of Nasscom, the trade group for India’s information technology sector. “The industry is open to any kind of checks in the system, but they should not cause any hindrance to the smooth operation of companies.

The proposed Trump order is also aimed at bringing more transparency to the program. It calls for publishing reports with basic statistics on who uses the immigration programs within one month of the end of the government’s fiscal year. The Obama Administration had scaled back the information available on the programs and required Freedom of Information Act requests for some data.

Whatever specific changes are implemented, they are likely to add to the expenses for India’s technology companies. That may accelerate a shift to new kinds of services, such as cloud computing and artificial intelligence, said Raja Lahiri, partner at the Mumbai-based partner at consultancy Grant Thornton India

“The visa challenges are not going to go away easily,” he said. “They will continue to be a challenge for Indian IT companies.”

But while the pain for India will be acute, it will be Silicon Valley that may be most impacted, as suddenly its favorite source of cheap, skilled labor is eliminated. How it will responds remains to be seen.

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