MP’s in Parliament have voted 498 to 114 to authorize Prime Minster Theresa May to Trigger Article 50 and begin the United Kingdom’s withdrawal from the European Union. The vote officiates the result of the June 23rd, 2016 “Brexit” Referendum where a majority of UK citizens indicated a desire to leave the EU. An amendment introduced by the Scottish National Party (SNP) which called on the Government to consult the devolved powers on Brexit and calls on her to set out her objectives for the negotiation was rejected. The vote authorizes Theresa May to begin the withdrawal process, which she has indicated she will do by the end of March, 2017.
The BBC reports that talks with the EU are expected to last for up to two years, and that the UK is expected to officially leave the EU by 2019.
After withdrawing almost completely from public view following her staggering loss to Donald Trump on November 8th, Hillary, according to Bloomberg, is plotting a return to the limelight with a new book to be published this fall and a speaking tour that will include a stop at her alma mater Wellesley College in May. If you can’t take the White House, might as well restart the
book signings and public speaking machine…at $250,000-$500,000 a pop
who could resist?
The former secretary of state, senator and first lady is working on a book of personal essays that will come out this fall, Simon & Schuster told The Associated Press on Wednesday. The book, still untitled, is structured around hundreds of favorite quotations that have inspired her. The publisher said Clinton will use the quotes to “tell stories from her life, up to and including her experiences in the 2016 presidential campaign” and into her thoughts on the future.
“These are the words I live by,” Clinton said in a statement. “These quotes have helped me celebrate the good times, laugh at the absurd times, persevere during the hard times and deepen my appreciation of all life has to offer.”
“I hope by sharing these words and my thoughts about them, the essays will be meaningful for readers,” Clinton added.
Since the official name of the book has yet to be revealed, the Daily Caller offered up the following helpful suggestions with readers overwhelmingly in support of “I’m Just Awful.”
And while the book is sure to be an inspirational masterpiece, at least to the swooning liberal book critics who will gladly offer up their unbiased opinions, we suspect it will be somewhat light on mentions of the various scandals that plagued her campaign.
Of course, this is all likely unwelcome news for the deeply depressed, disaffected, millennial snowflakes who were hoping for a political comeback for the two-time failed presidential candidate, as it almost certainly signals that she will not be running for New York City Mayor’s seat this fall.
That said, for thousands of dollars, America’s snowflake protesters can at least come in from the cold to catch a glimpse of what could have been at any number of LGBT functions across the country where Hillary will be speaking in the not so distant future.
Clinton will also resume her relationship with the Harry Walker Agency, the speakers bureau she worked with after she stepped down in 2013 as secretary of state. Clinton’s lucrative career as a speaker, notably her talks sponsored by Goldman Sachs, were criticized by primary opponent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and others as a sign that she was too close to the financial industry.
Clinton does have some speeches arranged, but not through the Walker agency, Clinton spokesman Nick Merrill told the AP. On March 8, she will address an international women’s day event organized by Vital Voices, the initiative Clinton and then-Secretary of State Madeleine Albright founded in 1997. Clinton will speak at the LGBT Community Center in New York on April 20, and, on May 26, she will give the commencement address at her alma mater, Wellesley College. Her student address at the 1969 graduation ceremonies helped make her a national figure.
What is the over/under on how many times “Russian hacking” will be mentioned in the new memoir?
The FOMC kept policy rates unchanged today and made few revisions to its statement. We see limited implications for the near-term policy outlook, and continue to assign a 35% chance that the committee raises rates as soon as the March 14-15 meeting. Our modal forecast remains three hikes this year, at the June, September and December FOMC meetings.
Faraday Research:
“For traders, the biggest mystery was whether Dr. Yellen and company were leaning toward raising interest rates in March or closer to June, and at the margin, it seems as if the Fed is leaning more toward the latter. Whereas many observers expected that the central bank would upgrade its assessment of the inflation picture, the FOMC reiterated that “market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low” and that “survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.”
BOT-Mitsubishi:
The world has turned upside down with Donald Trump storming into Washington and the Fed does nothing. Fed officials are in the Team Trump (administration) crosshairs, and seem frozen in time like a frightened deer in the headlights. Is this it? This is what they are giving us? Consumer and business sentiment has improved of late. Throw the dog a bone? Are you kidding? Consumer confidence is back to a high normal altitude. Rates are too low for this economy; economic cycle is almost over with expansion turning 9 years old in July, yet Fed policy has barely gotten out of the gate. Fed has left rates near zero for so long that it’s putting the institution at risk from those who want to rewrite its mandate and governance; failure to act may have emboldened its critics in Congress. Would not be so bad if Fed meeting that just ended left door open for a possible March hike. Policy makers think they have all the time in the world; we think time is running out, judging from Congress and new administration.
Deutsche Bank:
Very dovish Fed by composition and the difference is clear in the statement. Gone are George and Mester.. this is a unified dovish Fed.
MFR:
“Nothing in the statement either further opened or closed the door to a tightening move on March 15. If that is to occur, it will most certainly have been well flagged by Fed-speak in the interim. Our view remains that June is a more likely time for the move than March, but a reasonable case for March could certainly be made if economic data continue to come in on the stronger side.”
ING:
“If the Fed does intend to raise rates three times this year as their December dot diagram suggested, then they are making it difficult for themselves by not opening the door to a March hike. The only substantive change to the FOMC statement text was ‘Measures of consumer and business sentiment have improved of late. Inflation increased in recent quarters but is still below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective’.
There is little reference to the fact that inflation is now knocking at the door of their longer run objective, or that wages growth now appears to have taken off. With further strength in the labour market and inflation likely to be evident before the March meeting, and the likelihood that the Fed’s longer run inflation objectives will not only be met but possibly surpassed by then, we feel that the Fed has missed a trick today in not nudging markets in the direction of a March hike. And if they do not move then, it will appear to some market participants that the Fed is falling behind the curve.”
Mizuho:
“I expect the minutes to be released in a few weeks will show a more wide ranging debate than that indicated by the policy statement but the clear lack of visibility on key trade, tax, spending and regulatory initiatives argued for a well-scrubbed statement. The risk was one-sided going into the release and after the stronger than expected ADAP and ISM reports this morning, the bond market is likely to sell off into Friday’s payroll report. I would not be surprised if the 10-year is well above 2.5 per cent by Friday and the 2-year is closer to 1.3% than to current levels before the jobs data is reported.”
The Senate has confirmed Rex Tillerson as secretary of state in a narrow vote that was among the most contentious for that role in recent history. Tillerson surpassed the 51 votes needed, enough for a simple majority to approve his nomination.
The former Exxon CEO Tillerson will take over his post as the country’s top diplomat as lawmakers remain skeptical about President Trump’s foreign policy, including his stance toward Russia and a recent executive order that temporarily banned refugees and citizens from seven Muslim-majority countries. Bob Corker specifically pointed to Russia as one area where he expects Tillerson to hone in on.
“I would say the place that, if I were him, that I would want to be focused is my strategy on the Russia issue,” he told reporters. “It’s one where you know the president seems fairly engaged and I think as secretary of State he probably wants to make sure that he’s developed his thinking on how to push back on Putin.” He added that the administration also needs to “get on with” naming Tillerson’s deputies.
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) also noted his belief that the secretary of a State “is the most important cabinet position that the president has to nominate” as explanation for why he is supporting Tillerson despite concerns. “There is so much uncertainty and debate about our role in the world these days,” he said. “A lot of our allies have questions. Our adversaries are obviously watching very closely.”
Previously, Democrats launched a failed effort to delay Tillerson’s nomination until after he had time to weigh in on the executive order from Trump banning individuals from seven Muslim-majority countries. As The Hill reports, Chuck Schumer moved on Monday to delay a procedural vote, but was blocked by Sen. Tom Cotton. Afterward Democrats tried to shift republicans’ votes away from a vote for Tillerson. They noted that dozens of GOP lawmakers had raised concerns about Trump’s executive order and that Tillerson, a former ExxonMobil CEO, had not backed new sanctions targeting Moscow.
“This is all an advertisement for a very simple idea — that this is probably the absolute worst time to have the first American President with no government experience and no diplomatic experience pick the first Secretary of State with no government experience and no diplomatic experience,” said Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), a member of the Foreign Relations Committee. Sen. Ben Cardin, the top Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee, added: “We need, as the next Secretary of State, a person who is going to be a leader in saying: We are going to use every one of our diplomatic tools to isolate Russia if they continue this activity of interfering with our elections.”
With Tillerson’s official nomination he now faces a full plate including escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine, a proxy war in Syria, a boisterous North Korea, a Taiwan and South China Sea diplomatic snafu and much more.
“Rex Tillerson will have the most demanding and complex agenda to face a secretary of state in a very long time,” said R. Nicholas Burns, a Harvard professor and career foreign service officer.
Another crucial question will be how much influence Tillerson has on Trump. All cabinet secretaries must compete for power with White House aides who have long personal relationships with and frequent access to the president. But Mr. Trump’s reliance on a close circle of advisers to write and vet executive orders while keeping departments that must implement them largely in the dark is without precedent.
Trump invited Tillerson for a private lunch at the White House on Wednesday, the first time Mr. Tillerson has appeared on the president’s official schedule.
A social justice warrior involved in the Seattle street protests tells you everything you need to know about what the future holds and lends further evidence to the notion that America sits on the precipice of widespread civil unrest.
The woman, who also claims to be a pre-school teacher, implies that it’s time for extreme measures, including but not limited to killing people, starting at the White House.
Just so you know… we need to start killing people… first off we need to start killing the White House… the White House might die… your fucking White House… your fucking White House must go…
As you’ll see below, when she claims it’s time to start killing people she is most likely referring to white people exclusively. But killing isn’t enough.
If you’re white, it’s time you started kicking some of your hard-earned wealth her way, including your cash and your house:
White people… give your fucking money… give your fucking house… your fucking property… we need it fucking all… you need to reparate black and indigenous people right now… Pay the fuck up… it ain’t just your fucking time… it’s your fucking money…
Watch the her full speech (and then be sure to register your kids with her pre-school):
When Iran test fired a new ballistic missile on Sunday, an act it confirmed this morning, it was aware it was taking a calculated risk and, more importantly, was testing America’s response and resolve to preserve Obama’s nuclear deal. It got the answer this afternoon, when shortly before 2pm, President Trump’s national security adviser, Michael Flynn, said the United States was officially putting Iran on notice on Wednesday over its “destabilizing activity” after it test-fired a ballistic missile over the weekend.
“As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice,” Flynn told a White House briefing, without explaining exactly what that meant, although it is clear that any more provocations by Iran and whatever existing deals Iran had with the Obama administration will almost certainly be revised if not torn up.
National Security Advisor Michael Flynn at White House briefing: “As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice.” http://pic.twitter.com/RxtK8B36xu
Flynn also added that in his view the ballistic missile launch on Sunday was in defiance of a U.N. Security Council resolution that called on Iran not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons; prior to Flynn’s clarification.
The retired general did not detail what actions the administration would take in response to the test, but said that National Security Council staff would brief reporters at 4 p.m. on Wednesday.
Flynn also criticized former President Obama for being soft on Iran and claiming his administration “failed to respond adequately.”
Flynn’s full statement is below:
Statement by the National Security Advisor
“Recent Iranian actions, including a provocative ballistic missile launch and an attack against a Saudi naval vessel conducted by Iran-supported Houthi militants, underscore what should have been clear to the international community all along about Iran’s destabilizing behavior across the Middle East.
The recent ballistic missile launch is also in defiance of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which calls upon Iran “not to undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using such ballistic missile technology.”
These are just the latest of a series of incidents in the past six months in which Houthi forces that Iran has trained and armed have struck Emirati and Saudi vessels, and threatened U.S. and allied vessels transiting the Red Sea. In these and other similar activities, Iran continues to threaten U.S. friends and allies in the region. Iran continues to threaten U.S. friends and allies in the region.
The Obama Administration failed to respond adequately to Tehran’s malign actions—including weapons transfers, support for terrorism, and other violations of international norms. The Trump Administration condemns such actions by Iran that undermine security, prosperity, and stability throughout and beyond the Middle East and place American lives at risk.
President Trump has severely criticized the various agreements reached between Iran and the Obama Administration, as well as the United Nations – as being weak and ineffective.
Instead of being thankful to the United States for these agreements, Iran is now feeling emboldened.
As of today, we are officially putting Iran on notice.”
* * *
Meanwhile, in a separate matter, the WSJ reported that Flynn himself has some ongoing problems of his own when several top Democratic members of Congress asked the Defense Department to investigate whether retired Lt. Gen. Flynn violated the Constitution when he accepted money from a Russian television network that U.S. intelligence officials say is part of a state-funded media apparatus.
In a letter sent Wednesday to Secretary of Defense Jim Mattis, the lawmakers said that since Mr. Flynn retired from the Army in 2014, he has appeared regularly on Russia Today, or RT, a state-sponsored television network. The letter also notes that Mr. Flynn acknowledged he was paid to speak at a gala in Moscow celebrating RT’s 10th anniversary in December 2015. At the event, he dined alongside Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The lawmakers said Mr. Flynn may have violated the Emoluments Clause of the Constitution, which prohibits someone “holding any office of profit or trust”—meaning a public office or military position—from accepting gifts or payments from a foreign country.
As was largely expected – and in spite of a whiney distraction from Jeremy Corbyn on Trump – UK Prime Minister Theresa May crossed the first hurdle towards Brexit as The House of Commons easily passed a bill authorizing the start of European Union exit talks.
Cable was largely unimpressed (dominated by USD flows from The Fed)
As AP reports, British lawmakers have backed a bill authorizing the start of European Union exit talks, voting by a decisive 498 to 114 to push the measure past its first major legislative hurdle.
During two days of debate in the House of Commons, many legislators from both government and opposition said they would respect voters' June 23 decision to leave the EU and back the bill.
But pro-EU members of Parliament from opposition parties will try to insert more amendments at the next stage of the process, seeking to prevent an economy-shocking "hard Brexit."
The Conservative government wants to have the bill approved by early March so it can meet a self-imposed March 31 deadline for triggering two years of EU divorce talks.
The FT notes that the vote saw Mrs May lead virtually all Conservative MPs through the voting lobbies alongside Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, who had instructed his MPs to respect the Leave vote in last year’s EU referendum.
Parliamentary approval was required after the Supreme Court ruled Mrs May could not trigger Article 50 using royal prerogative.
But Brexit continued to wreak havoc for Labour, with dozens of pro-EU MPs refusing to back the bill. Dawn Butler, shadow equalities minister, and Rachel Maskell, shadow environment secretary, were the latest rebels to quit the front bench after refusing to obey Mr Corbyn.
Even as the prime minister celebrated her victory — and the sight of the Labour party in disarray — senior members of her own party and her former ambassador to the EU, Ivan Rogers, gave sober assessments of the talks to come.
The prime minister will set out what Downing Street called a “substantial” white paper setting out her negotiating objectives on Thursday, although the policy plan will cover the same ground as her Lancaster House speech last month which laid out her Brexit goals. Mrs May expects the bill to complete its passage through the Commons and Lords by March 7, although a decision has yet to be taken on precisely when Mrs May will send a letter of notification that Britain wants to withdraw from the EU.
Continuing the conversation of whether it’s time to short America, we investigate the administration’s plans for protectionism and a tax holiday for corporate capital repatriation. The first question that needs to be asked is, “Who benefits from this, and why do they want it done?”
Trump has already authorized the building of an $18B dollar wall. This is a monumental undertaking which he already speculated would enrich certain manufacturing companies, reference Some of the Biggest Beneficiaries From Building a Mexican Border Wall May Be Mexican Materials Companies. As a matter of fact, some companies’ share prices have already started moving in anticipation (chomping at the bit, so to say) or getting a chunk of that deal, look!
Do you know why number 6 on that list is moving so much? Take a guess! It’s because the swimming among the many standing conflicts of interest in the Trump administration… (click any graphic to expand so you can see those little words)
Is his pick for Secretary of Transportation, Elaine Chao. Ms. Chao just so happens to be director on the board of Vulcan Materials. Helluva coincidence, eh?
I’ll give you three guesses, and a bonus round if you still can’t catch up, as to who will get a good portion of the $18B wall building businesses when it comes up to bid (or sole source, as it may be).
Trump also floated the idea of a tax holiday to repatriate foreign capital into the US to fill our coffers and provide capital for hew jobs and hiring. It sounds very good, except for two things:
It doesn’t work like that,and
it exacerbates the problem by making the rich people richer and the poor people poorer.
Now, rich people may like that concept – at least at first, and if they didn’t think it through. Of course, once you start thinking, you realize the world (nor this country) can live solely off of financial assets. Somebody, somewhere has to work to build or make something of tangible value. Herein lies the rub. You have to enable workers to maintain a better then living wage, or the amount of time the capitalist class can take advantage of them is limited. Let’s step through some historical facts and analysis, shall we? (Download the full document here)
So, if tax holidays don’t work, and they have been proven not to work in the past, why in the world would Trump, et. al. recommend a tax holiday? The answer is quite simple – follow the money! These are the companies that have the highest holdings offshore, and the best tax/bailout deals with the government. I don’t have time to get into the finance dudes, but the tech side drives the message home.
Now, does this answer the question as to why Trump will declare a tax holiday if it actually loses money for the American people and costs jobs? Of course it does, just look at the Secretary of Commerce nominee. He’s the multi-billionaire, Wilbur Ross. Wilbur is a very, very connected man. Among those connections, he ran the Rothschild’s financial arm as Chairman, CIO and Executive Managing Director.
The Rothschild’s are one of the oldest money families in the western world, dating back to the 1760s. They control a lot! Now they control the US Presidency through Secretary of Commerce (the Democratic Party cannot block it).
What else does he control? Well, he’s also Chairman and Chief Strategy Office of Invesco, Ltd. To put this into perspective, Invesco has over $2,000,000,000 of holdings of the yellow highlighted companies in just ONE (1) fund. There are at least 3 to 4 other funds that hold these stocks too. There’s no conflict there, is it?
Now, to be fair, Mr. Ross has said he would divest of assets that pose a conflict, as I’m sure Ms. Chao has promised as well. Then again… That’s what Donald said, wasn’t it? Even if he does fully (operative word) divest his linkages and ability to bestow favoritism is not only extant, but strong and deep. Expect Goldman and Rothschilds to take issue in their divvying of the booty. I can go into Trump’s wooing of the auto industry, and Mr. Ross’s extensive auto industry businesses and connections, but I think you get the point.
So, now you know why we can have a tax holiday and and build a wall, when neither is in the country’s best interest. For those investors who have running less than $16B or so in AUM, there is actually a need for sustained economic activity uptick, and not the temporary trading spike to be had from these one time machinations. That, I’m afraid, will not happen if these policy proposals actually go through.
Tax holiday for corporate capital repatriation borne on faulty premise, one that history clearly illustrates:
The last tax holiday that we’ve had was in 2004, allowing U.S. multinational companies, allowing them to repatriate foreign profits at a 5.25% tax rate. Consequently, corporations repatriated $362 billion into the American economy. That is $456 billion in 2017. These funds were used primarily for paying dividends to investors, repurchasing shares, and M&A activity – basically, the acquisition of financial assets. In 2011, Senate Democrats, arguing against another repatriation tax holiday, issued a report asserting that the previous effort had actually cost the United States Treasury $3.3 billion, and that companies receiving the tax breaks had thereafter cut over 20,000 jobs.[2] A second repatriation tax holiday was defeated in the United States Senate in 2009.
We are wavering between moderately and strongly bearish in the medium term. We do acknowledge some trading spikes, hence we are researching long/short trades to minimize some of the risk.
My next article will discuss the possibility of stagflation with plenty of data for paying subscribers.
Developing: Department of Correction Response Teams and the Delaware State Police are currently responding to a hostage situation at the James T. Vaughn Correctional Center (JTVCC) in Smyrna, Delaware. According to initial reports from Delaware Online, inmates of the correctional facility have taken over a building and are thought to be holding multiple officers hostage.
Rep. William Carson, a member of the House Corrections Committee, said he had been told it was an “apparent hostage situation.”
“The inmates have taken over a building,” he said.
Geoffrey Klopp, president of the Correctional Officers Association of Delaware, confirmed to ABC that prison guards had been taken hostage but did not provide any further details.
JTVCC houses about 2,500 prisoners and, as a Level 5 facility, includes some of the state’s most violent criminals.