Bond Yields Plunge Through Key Technical Level As Dismal Jobs Data Sinks Stocks, Dollar

The market's reaction to the dismal jobs data was uniform in its disappointment – while June rate-hike odds remain near 100%, September dipped a little (at just 30%), the dollar dropped, stocks fell, and bond yields tumbled.

'Hard' datas is collapsing again to 13 month lows as soft data catches down…

 

And September rate hike odds are stuck around 30%…

10Y Yields tumbled to 2.15 intraday – the lowest level since November 10th 2016… and broke below the key 200-day moving average

 

The Dollar Index tumbled, testing the 2017 lows…

 

Gold jumped to 6-week highs, bouncing off its 50dma…

 

And stocks double-dipped back into the red…

 

 

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Full-Time Jobs Tumble By 367,000, Biggest Drop In Three Years

While on the surface, the payrolls report, the wage growth and the unemployment rate (which dropped for all the wrong reasons) were disappointing, a quick look inside the underlying data reveals even more troubling trends, such as that in addition to the number of employed workers dropping by 233K according to the household survey, the composition of these jobs raised even more red flags because in May the US lost 367,000 full time jobs offset by the gain of 133,000 part time jobs.

Putting this number in context, it was the biggest drop in full-time jobs going back to June 2014.

And in this context, we are happy to announce that while manufacturing jobs once again declined by 1,000, the waiter and bartender recovery continues to hum along, with 30,000 workers added in “food services and drinking places.”

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Turkey Seeks Arrest of NBA Player, Says He Belongs to a ‘Terrorist Organization’

A Turkish court has reportedly issued an arrest warrant for Oklahoma Thunder center Enes Kanter, charging him with “being a member of a terrorist organization.” The 25-year-old Kanter, a Turkish national who has been living in the United States since 2009, has been an outspoken critic of the increasingly authoritarian Turkish government. He is also a supporter of Fethullah Gulen, a former imam and former ally of Turkish President Recep Erdogan.

Gulen, who has lived in the U.S. since 1999, is the spiritual leader of a movement known as Hizmet (Turkish for “service”). According to the Rubin Center for Research in International Affairs, he was estimated to have “between 200,000 supporters and 4 million people influenced by his ideas” in the late 1990s. Erdogan regularly accuses him of being the mastermind behind last year’s attempted coup.

“Only exiled people are going to be willing to go on record” about Kanter, a source familiar with the situation on the ground in Turkey tells Reason. “The whole set of accusations and demands has become toxic. It’s partly because it’s a no-go topic in Turkey but also because the [Gulen movement] is flawed and disliked by a lot of ordinary people in Turkey.”

After the failed coup, Erdogan initiated a massive purge of academics, bureaucrats, members of the judiciary, and members of the media, claiming with little to no evidence that thousands of people were colluding with what the Turkish government now calls the “Gulen Terrorist Organization.” Kanter’s family in Turkey has publicly disowned him, with his father apologizing to Erdogan “and the Turkish people” for “having such a son.” That didn’t keep Kanter’s dad from losing his job at a university in Istanbul.

Turkey’s slide into authoritarianism accelerated after a constitutional referendum earlier this year that vastly expanded Erdogan’s powers. Since then, “Erdogan has shown little concern with how the West (particularly the U.S. and the EU) view his actions, and arguably has been behaving in such a manner as to create a wedge between the Turkish people and the West,” says Michael Wuthrich, a specialist on the region who directs the Global & International Studies program at Kansas University.

“What is particularly surprising about Kanter’s case,” Wuthrich adds, “is that they are targeting a well-known international figure who hasn’t lived in Turkey for any length of time for years”—and “whose connection with the foiled coup plot would be extremely dubious to all but the most ardent Erdogan supporter.” For Wuthrich, that means Erdogan “no longer feels shame from a harsh reaction from the West; in fact, he is stoking it to present to his political base a Western bloc that is part of a grand conspiracy to thwart Turkey’s rise to greatness.”

Gulen, meanwhile, serves as “an Orwellian foil of sorts,” though “there is very little substance that would link him to the attempted coup,” Wuthrich says. Gulen has structured his supporters’ network “in such a way that he almost never conveys direct orders. Even if he wished that Erdogan was removed from power, it is unlikely that he expressed this in any sort of explicitly incriminating ways or would have sullied himself with planning and preparation for such a thing.” It’s not even clear that the Turkish government sincerely wants extradite Gulen. Because he has been “conveniently operating as a scapegoat for every problem that Erdogan finds himself in for the last several years,” Wuthrich explains, Gulen may be more valuable abroad.

Turkey’s chances of securing an extradition of Kanter are low, according to Wuthrich: “There is almost no way that the Justice Department could link Kanter to anything beyond verbal support for a religious leader, who the Turkish government accuses of instigating a coup.” Turkey has reportedly asked Interpol for an international alert on Kanter, who last month was temporarily detained in Romania after the Turkish government suspended his passport. Interpol is unlikely to honor the request.

As Turkey continues its slide into authoritarianism, and as President Donald Trump’s admiration for Erdogan continues to receive scrutiny, one part of the relationship between Turkey and the West remains unquestioned: its membership in NATO. Erdogan can thumb his nose at Europe (and the U.S.) because of the fairly ironclad security commitment NATO represents. And while Trump has questioned the wisdom of the NATO alliance, he has not questioned the underlying assumptions of U.S. involvement in Middle Eastern politics. That involvement has seen the U.S. lean on Turkish support for its counterterrorism efforts, even as Turkey is accused of being weak on ISIS and has bombed U.S.-backed Kurdish forces fighting ISIS.

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Pulling Out of Paris Won’t Doom the Planet

President Trump has not always talked about climate change in a sensible fashion. He once tweeted that it was a Chinese concoction meant to Polar Bearmake American manufacturing uncompetitive, apparently oblivious that it was a hobbyhorse of Western enviros much before the Middle Kingdom even heard about it. And, indeed, his “us versus them” style of paranoid politics was richly on display in the Rose Garden yesterday when he announced his decision to pull out of the Paris climate change agreement. He stated:

The rest of the world applauded when we signed the Paris Agreement. They went wild. They were so happy. For the simple reason that it put our country, the United States of America, which we all love, at a very, very big economic disadvantage. A cynic would say the obvious reason for economic competitors and their wish to see us remain in the agreement is so that we continue to suffer this self-inflicted major economic wound. We would find it very hard to compete with other countries from other parts of the world.

Trump may be nuts, but that does not justify the liberal hysteria over the pull out, I note in my column at The Week. The truth is that this deal wasn’t going to save the planet, and the deal’s collapse won’t doom it.

To the contrary, Trump’s withdrawal rips the mask off the agreement’s silly assumption that nations like China and India will actually deliver on the emission cuts that they promise on paper. And this might finally trigger a search for workable solutions that don’t involve putting the globe on an energy diet.

I note:

Global warming cannot and should not be fought by massive international agreements. The battle will only be won when America’s technology and energy sectors develop innovative solutions that present consumers with cleaner energy options that are obviously cheaper and better than what exists today. The Paris Agreement is so fixated on blaming and punishing humans because enviros barely care about finding solutions that would meet their needs.

Go here to read the column.

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Joe Scarborough Melts Down: “Steve Bannon Is The President Of The United States”

In a brief tirade on 'Morning Joe' today, Joe Scarborough made it clear that, in his mind, the U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord proved that Steve Bannon was back in the saddle in the West Wing. "TIME magazine was right: Steve Bannon is the president of the United States."

"He has gone in. Donald Trump doesn't know anything about policy.

 

Donald Trump doesn't know anything about politics. Donald Trump doesn't know anything about anything. He can get up and give a good speech. You listen to him talk about any topic and he wanders from sentence to sentence to sentence.  

 

So Steve Bannon is now the President of the United States. And that was more clear yesterday than ever before."

As Mediate notes, Scarborough took obvious relish in the return of “President Bannon” peppering his commentary throughout the show with the phrase and at one point using it seven times in a single minute…

Slamming the president has taken on an almost ritualistic quality on the morning show. Only yesterday, Scarborough suggested that Trump seemed like of hostage of Vladimir Putin and that his behavior was suggestive of a child who had “pooped his pants.” Another guest on the same show compared his surrogates to Stalin’s lackeys. Co-host Mika Brzezinski has also repeatedly followed suit with her own pointed barbs.

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Jobs Report Should Cause Pain for Overpriced Bond Markets – Michael Carino, Greenwich Endeavors

 

After 10 years of manipulating the bond market, the Federal
Reserve has overstayed its monetary policy welcome and created systemic
conditions that will have high costs for everyone.  There is a place for depressionary and
recessionary monetary policies, but that was almost a decade ago.  With GDP approaching 3% and inflation running
above 2%, do we really need policies and statements that keep unwitting
investors in a perpetual state of fear reflected in bond market yields that are
usually reserved for severe recessions and depressions?

 

There is no question that this hyperactive Fed knows how to
throw every monetary policy tool at economic problems stemming from a dysfunctional
government that creates poor polarized policies. Yes, the Fed feels compelled
to correct these politically driven negative impacts and in the process
subsidize and fund them.

 

Political and egotistical reasons have limited the Fed’s
reversal of such policies.  The Fed knows
the catastrophic financial impact of reversing a decade of market manipulation
in the bond market.  Bond yields are
lower and prices higher than the overpriced conditions of 2006-2007 that lead
to the 2008 bond market crisis.  If
conditions are worse now than then, need I say more on market embedded risk due
to mispricing?  But the Fed knew the
conditions in 2006 and 2007 as well.  That
is why they went on a 25bp rate rise campaign on their last tightening cycle.  They feared excessive volatility would lead to
a quick repricing in the bond market and the uncertain economic and market
reactions.  

 

Wash, rinse and repeat.  The Fed has followed the exact play book – and
yes, you should expect the same results.  However, investors do not have to come along
for the same ride.  They can open their
eyes and acknowledge what is going on.  A
decade seems like a long time ago.  The
Fed is hoping short memories and the annihilation of any trader that focuses on
value in the bond market can assist in the slow unwind of this mispricing.  But just like the 2006-2007 period, the slow
unwind didn’t lead to an unwind of the mispricing.  Instead, it led to the addition of risk to
make up for lower net income and higher funding costs.

 

Today’s bond market reflects an eerily similar environment.  As short term rates are adjusted higher on a
slow, highly expected path, traders and significantly invested participants are
squeezing the market through various techniques and bond prices are not
adjusting lower.  With the Fed trying to keep
volatility out of the bond market, it creates an environment for oligopolistic bond
investors to limit losses through various manipulative and market squeezing
strategies. 

 

Higher short term rates leave limited to no yield differential
to compensate for the risks embedded in longer term bonds.  Some argue as the Fed raises rates, longer
term bonds should outperform due to a restrictive Fed.  Wrong! 
If the Fed was to have a restrictive policy, then yes, long term bonds
should outperform and be priced for a restrictive policy.  But first and foremost, Fed policy will not be
restrictive until they unwind their balance sheet of over 4 trillion.  Every trillion they own can be estimated up to
1% of easing.  So rates should be 4% just
to have a neutral impact on monetary policy. Ignoring this minor impact, Fed
policy is not considered restrictive until the Fed Funds rate is 1% to 2% above
the level of inflation – currently running around 2.5%.  So if Fed Funds were 4% to 6%, and longer term
bond yields 1% to 2% higher for an adequate risk premium, yes, you could argue
the bond market should be flattening – or longer term bonds outperforming.

 

Unfortunately, longer term bonds yield 2% to 2.5%.  This is why the current mispricing is so potentially
devastating.  Not only is the Fed raising
rates, but they are going to shrink its balance sheet as government bond
issuance is expected to surge.  The Fed
has manipulated long term rates lower by focusing on longer term bonds and
removing duration from the market place.  The government as well is looking at issuing
long term bonds, or add duration to the market place.  The point is just like 2006-2007, the risks
continue to build in the market place, but prices and yields have not adjusted.
 The crisis of 2008 would not have been a
crisis if yields reflected reality and were high enough to justify the risk
embedded in the market place.  The same
is true today.  Too much risk embedded in
a market place with not even close to enough yield to offset it.  With a nod and a wink, the Fed helped manipulate
rates by saying they will keep rates lower for longer.  The large investors took this and ran.  Some of these investors now have hundreds of
billions stuck at low yields in the bond market.  They can’t ever get out of these positions
without hurting themselves through much higher yields.  Instead, they bide time manipulating rates
when they can, hoping for headlines or the next recession to contain the
eventual pain or a repricing.

 

And the manipulation is glaring.  Going into the July Treasury auctions, it was apparent
there is limited appetite for purchasing bonds at these prices.  Yields have been rising as auctions get
closer.  The last auction, the long bond
rose to 3.05% yield to attract enough buyers.  But once the supply is out, those that had to
buy it use high volume trading tactics during low volume periods to pop the
prices of bonds back up.  Within days,
these traders were able to reprice a 3.05% yielding auction down to 2.86%.  Make sense?  No.  But
this is where risk comes from.  Those
that have mammoth bond positions that are cemented in will pursue whatever
strategy necessary, squeezing out those with opposing views to maintain current
yield levels.  How did that work for the
Hunt brothers in the oil market?

 

Nothing holds a mispriced market together better than a diminishment
of volatility.  Higher volatility makes
it visibly clear to all that there is too much risk for not enough yield.  There is an asymmetric skew in current
economic data (topic of the next article) where growth, jobs and inflation are
all at the higher end of the range, yet bonds are still priced as if in a
recession or worse. Current employment based statistics and antidotal
information forecasts the payroll report should have been a monster number.  Sure, the BLS has a knack to diminish volatility
in this number by coming out with one number then months later having
significant revisions.  They justify this
by taking a symmetric approach to their volatility diminishing adjustments.  At 138k, this number shows a healthy economy
and jobs market before revisions. However, I believe the strength of the jobs
market make this number likely to be eye popping upon revisions.  As bond market prices reflect a recession, the
unemployment rate just dropped down to a seldom seen and envied 4.3%!!!

 

As a few very large balance sheets continue to trade and
support the bond market focused on minutiae such as the latest Trump tweet or
other tertiary information, don’t forget the variables in front of us all. The
economic environment is healthy and normal with a chance of running too hot,
the bond market is still priced for a recession and they Fed is slowly taking
the punch bowl away from the greatest party of all time.

 

 

 

by Michael Carino, 6/2/17

 

Michael Carino is the CEO of Greenwich Endeavors, a
financial service firm, and has been a fund manager and owner for more than 20
years.  He has positions that benefit
from a normalized bond market and higher yields.  Do you?

    

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Nevertheless It Persists: The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Fights Trump, Congress, and Federal Courts in Effort to Remain Unaccountable to Anyone

The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s days as the federal government’s most uniquely unaccountable regulatory agency might be numbered.

The CFPB, a product of the Dodd-Frank financial regulation package passed in the wake of the 2009 financial collapse, has broad authority to regulate American financial institutions. Unlike other federal regulatory agencies, however, the CFPB does not have to answer to Congress or the president for its actions. It gets its funding directly from the Federal Reserve, and is run by a single director (an unusual arrangement since most regulatory agencies are run by a bipartisan group of three or five individuals) who serves a 10–year term and cannot be removed from office before that time.

Just about every part of that description could be changing—and soon.

Lawyers for the CFPB were in front of the full U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit last week, appealing a previous ruling that determined the bureau’s single-director structure to be unconstitutional. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump’s budget proposal would restructure the CFPB’s funding stream so Congress has to provide appropriations to fund the bureau. A separate piece of legislation that could come up for a vote in the House as soon as next week would similarly hold the CFPB’s budget accountable to Congress and would make it easier for the president to remove the bureau’s director.

That three-front battle to reform the CFPB is the culmination of six years of Republican opposition to the bureau’s creation, spurred by progressive darling Elizabeth Warren in the days before she was a member of the Senate. The fight over the future of the CFPB is, in part, a partisan project to discredit one of the major progressive achievements of the Obama administration, but it’s also an effort to hold a potentially powerful regulatory body accountable to the democratically elected branches of government.

In theory, the bureau is supposed to operate independently. The goal is to insulate it from political influences that could shape regulatory decisions made by other agencies or by Congress—similar to how the Supreme Court and the Federal Reserve work.

In reality, though, the board has used its unaccountable power to target small businesses, payday lenders, community banks, and mortgage brokers.

The first significant blow to the CFPB came in October, when a three judge panel on the D.C. Circuit ruled that the unelected and largely unaccountable director must have more oversight from the president, a decision that echoes one major concern that has been raised by libertarians and conservatives since before the bureau was created in 2011.

The lawsuit was initially brought by a mortgage company called PHH Corp., which received a $100 million fine from the CFPB for supposedly harming consumers by referring them to a reinsurance company owned by a PHH subsidiary. The bureau claimed that PHH was engaged in an illegal kickback, but the company argued that the CFBP did not have the constitutional authority to come after them.

In the unanimous opinion issued in October, a three-judge panel from the D.C. Circuit sided with PHH and called the CFPB’s structure unconstitutional because the bureau’s director, Richard Cordray, has virtually unchecked authority.

“The Director enjoys significantly more unilateral power than any single member of any other independent agency,” wrote Judge Brett Kavanaugh in the unanimous opinion. “Indeed, other than the President, the Director of the CFPB is the single most powerful official in the entire United States Government, at least when measured in terms of unilateral power.”

Regulatory agencies headed by a single executive must be directly accountable to the president—meaning the president can hire and fire those directors at will—while independent agencies authorized by Congress, like the SEC and the FCC, must have a multi-member commission at the helm. The CFPB is neither. It was created by Congress, but a political compromise during negotiations over Dodd-Frank left the bureau with a single executive, unaccountable to the president.

When the case was heard last week on appeal–this time in front of all 11 judges on the D.C. Circuit–Reuters reported that the court appeared to lean slightly towards keeping the CFPB structure as it is. Several judges on the court questioned whether the CFPB’s independence did anything to diminish the power of the presidency, according to The Huffington Post‘s account of the oral arguments. Six of the 11 judges on the court are Democratic appointees, and Kavanaugh, who wrote the opinion in October, is one of the court’s most conservative members.

Even if the D.C. Circuit rules that Trump cannot remove Cordray from his post, the president will still play a role in reshaping the CFPB—if Congress goes along.

Trump’s budget plan, made public last week just two days before the D.C. Circuit court hearing, calls for “restructuring the CFPB to refocus its efforts on enforcing enacted consumer protection laws.” That, the budget proposal claims, “is a necessary first step to scale back harmful regulatory impositions and prevent future regulatory hurdles that stunt economic growth and ultimately hurt the consumers that CFBP was originally created to protect.”

To accomplish that goal, Trump proposes shutting off the agency’s funding stream from the Federal Reserve and having the CFPB go through the same congressional appropriations process as any other federal agency. Doing so would “provide the oversight necessary to impose financial discipline and prevent further overreach of the agency into consumer advocacy and activism,” the budget plan explains.

Imposing that financial discipline also means trimming the CFPB’s budget. Trump’s proposal would cut $145 million from the bureau’s 2018 spending plan and would save an estimated $6.8 billion over the next 10 years with further cuts in future years.

As it does with most presidential budget proposals, Congress is likely to ignore most of Trump’s 160-page proposal and write its own spending plan. But there’s good reason to believe that Trump’s proposal to change how the CFPB is funded will survive congressional scrutiny.

“Congress ought to be doing the authorizing,” says Lawrence White, an economist at New York University’s Stern School of Business, who says he believes the CFPB has generally taken a reasonable view of its role as a consumer advocate. Direct funding from the Federal Reserve was supposed to insulate the bureau from being buffeted by politics, but also keeps it from being held accountable. Tethering the bureau to Congress would make it answerable to the people, says White, “and that’s what our democratic system is all about.”

A spokesman for the CFPB declined to comment on Trump’s budget plan.

Even though the budget is unlikely to get much consideration from Congress until later this summer, the first major step towards restructuring the CFPB could happen as soon as next week.

Part of the Financial CHOICE (Creating Hope and Opportunity for Investors, Consumer and Entrepreneurs) Act, sponsored by Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas), would allow the president to remove the director of the CFPB at will. The bill would also force the bureau to go through the congressional appropriations process, give the bureau a Senate-confirmed inspector general, require cost-benefit analyses of regulatory proposals, and prevent the CFPB from collecting consumers’ financial information without permission (something that it has a history of doing). A separate but no less important element of the bill would create a new subchapter of the federal bankruptcy code for large financial institutions—those with more than $50 billion in assets—as an alternative to providing taxpayer-funded bailouts.

A wide range of conservative and libertarian groups have lined up to support the passage of the bill, which moved out of the House Financial Services Committee on May 25. Progressive groups and several major players in the financial industry, including American Express and Chase Bank, oppose the bill.

The bill could come up for a vote in the full House as early as next week. Assuming the bill passes the House, a potential stumbling block awaits in the Senate, where Democrats would be able to prevent the Republicans from getting the requisite 60 votes to pass the Financial CHOICE Act and restructure the CFPB.

If that happens, Republicans could try to use the reconciliation process, a little used Senate tactic that requires only 51 votes to pass legislation that addresses revenue, spending, or the federal deficit (most famously used in 2010 to get the final version of Obamacare across the finish line). Whether they would be allowed to use reconciliation to pass the Financial CHOICE Act would be up to the Senate parliamentarian, but reform advocates believe there is a strong case to be made.

“That’s something that could be, and should be, passed via reconciliation,” says John Berlau, a senior fellow for the Competitive Enterprise Institute, a free market think tank based in Washington, D.C., told Reason this week.

There are several ways that the Senate can use reconciliation, but bills subject to the special process must address spending, revenues, or the debt, and typically they have been deficit-reduction proposals. Berlau says Republicans in Congress could make the case that funding the CFPB through the normal appropriations process will reduce the deficit by preventing some Federal Reserve funds from flowing to the CFPB, and by giving Congress control over the bureau’s future budget.

All of this is, in some ways, a political project as much as a policy effort. Republicans have never cared for the CFPB—or other aspects of the Dodd-Frank Act—and, like they have tried to do with Obamacare since taking full control of the government in January, naturally want to make changes to the progressive, technocratic, and unaccountable bureau.

Republicans have spent six years moving into position for this summer’s three front battle against the CFPB. Nevertheless, it persists—at least for now.

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Projecting The Price Of Bitcoin

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

The wild card in cryptocurrencies is the role of Big Institutional Money.

I've taken the liberty of preparing a projection of bitcoin's price action going forward:

You see the primary dynamic is continued skepticism from the mainstream, which owns essentially no cryptocurrency and conventionally views bitcoin and its peers as fads, scams and bubbles that will soon pop as price crashes back to near-zero.

Skepticism is always a wise default position to start one's inquiry, but if no knowledge is being acquired, skepticism quickly morphs into stubborn ignorance.

Bitcoin et al. are not the equivalent of Beanie Babies. Cryptocurrencies have utility value. They facilitate international payments for goods and services.

The primary cryptocurrencies are not a scam. Advertising a flawless Beanie Baby and shipping a defective Beanie Baby is a scam. Advertising a mortgage-backed security as low-risk and delivering a guaranteed-to-default stew of toxic mortgages is a scam.

The primary cryptocurrencies (bitcoin, Ethereum and Dash) have transparent rules for emitting currency. The core characteristic of a scam is the asymmetry between what the seller knows (the product is garbage) and what the buyer knows (garsh, this mortgage-backed security is low-risk–look at the rating).

Both buyers and sellers of primary cryptocurrencies are in a WYSIWYG market: what you see is what you get. While a Beanie Baby scam might use cryptocurrencies as a means of exchange, this doesn't make primary cryptocurrencies a scam, any more than using dollars to transact a scam makes the dollar itself a scam.

Bubbles occur when everyone and their sister is trading/buying into a "hot" market. Bubbles pop when the pool of greater fools willing and able to pay nose-bleed valuations runs dry. In other words, when everyone with the desire and means to buy in and has already bought in, there's nobody left to buy in at a higher price (except for central banks, of course).

At that point, normal selling quickly pushes prices off the cliff as there is no longer a bid from buyers, only frantic sellers trying to cash in their winnings at the gambling hall.

While a few of my global correspondents own/use the primary cryptocurrencies, and a few speculate in the pool of hundreds of lesser cryptocurrencies, I know of only one friend/ relative /colleague / neighbor who owns cryptocurrency.

When only one of your circle of acquaintances, colleagues, friends, neighbors and extended family own an asset, there is no way that asset can be in a bubble, as the pool of potential buyers is thousands of times larger than the pool of present owners.

I discussed The Network Effect last year: The Network Effect, Jobs and Entrepreneurial Vitality (April 7, 2016):

The Network Effect is expressed mathematically in Metcalfe's Law: the value of a communications network is proportional to the square of the number of connected devices/users of the system.

The Network Effect cannot be fully captured by Metcalfe's Law, as the value of the network rises with the number of users in communication with others and with the synergies created by networks of users within the larger network, for example, ecosystems of suppliers and customers.

In other words, the Network Effect is not simply the value created by connected users; more importantly, it is the value created by the information and knowledge shared by users in sub-networks and in the entire network.

This is The Smith Corollary to Metcalfe's Law: the value of the network is created not just by the number of connected devices/users but by the value of the information and knowledge shared by users in sub-networks and in the entire network.

In the context of the primary cryptocurrencies, the network effect (and The Smith Corollary to Metcalfe's Law) is one core driver of valuation: the more individuals and organizations that start using cryptocurrencies, the higher the utility value and financial value of those networks (cryptocurrencies).

In other words, cryptocurrencies are not just stores of value and means of exchange–they are networks.

The true potential value of cryptocurrencies will not become visible until the global economy experiences a catastrophic collapse of debt and/or a major fiat currency. These events are already baked into the future, in my view; nothing can possibly alter the eventual collapse of the current debt/credit bubble and the fiat currencies that are being issued to inflate those bubbles.

The skeptics will continue declaring bitcoin a bubble that's bound to pop at $3,000, $5,000, $10,000 and beyond. When the skeptics fall silent, the potential for a bubble will be in place.

When all the former skeptics start buying in at any price, just to preserve what's left of their fast-melting purchasing power in other currencies, then we might see the beginning stages of a real bubble.

The wild card in cryptocurrencies is the role of Big Institutional Money. When hedge funds, insurance companies, corporations, investment banks, sovereign wealth funds etc. start adding bitcoin et al. as core institutional holdings, the price may well surprise all but the most giddy prognosticators.

The Network Effect can become geometric/exponential very quickly. It's something to ponder while researching the subject with a healthy skepticism.
 

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People Not In Labor Force Soar By 608,000

While the payrolls report (and wage gains) was an unmitigated disaster for anyone seeking “evidence” of an economic rebound (i.e., the Federal Reserve), there was some good news in the Unemployment rate which declined from 4.4% to 4.3%, the lowest going back to 2001.

There is just one problem with the above “silver lining”: the unemployment rate declined for all the wrong reasons, because contrary to expectations, the Household Survey reported that the number of employed Americans actually declined by 233K to 152.923 million, the lowest going back to February.

So how could the unemployment rate decline as the number of employed Americans tumbled? Simple: the labor force plunged, with the BLS reporting that the total labor force declined by 429,000 Americans in the month of May. This was the result of a whopping 608,000 American exiting, as the number of people not in the labor force soared to 94.983 million, up from 94.375 million in April.

As a result, the labor participation rate tumbled once again, sliding to 62.7%, the lowest print since 2016.

In sum, between the huge payrolls miss and downward revisions, the disappointing wage growth, and the droves of people leaving the labor force, this may have been one of the ugliest jobs reports in recent years.

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Trump Budget Would Slash Funds for Drug and Title IX Offices, California Could See Nonbinary IDs, Is Twitter Destroying Us All? A.M. Links

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