Month: June 2017

The day after Trump pulled out of the Paris Climate Accord, stocks are set for new all time highs with S&P futures up 0.2%, boosted by green markets across Europe and Asia, where the Nikkei rose above 20,000 for the first time since 2015. World stocks are set for new record highs, having already gained 11% so far this year, ahead of today’s US nonfarm payrolls which are expected to increase by 185,000 jobs after surging 211,000 in April.

In Asia, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 0.9% to the highest since April 2015. The Nikkei 225 Stock Average rallied 1.6% and topped 20,000 for the first time since December 2015. Stocks in Europe joined the party with euro zone blue-chips up 0.6% and UK’s FTSE 100 up 0.4% and hovering near its highest-ever levels. Futures on the S&P 500 rose 0.2%. The S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 indexes each closed at fresh records on Thursday. The dollar has clawed back some of recent losses after coming off its worst fortnight in a year on concern about the Trump administration’s ability to deliver a substantial boost to growth.

After the recent Chinese currency fireworks, which saw the biggest 4-day rally in the Yuan in 12 years, China’s offshore yuan tumbled the most since February amid signs that the recent funding crunch is beginning to abate and that the PBOC may have found a new equilibrium level for the currency. The onshore currency slipped 0.2 percent, breaking a four-day rally, while the offshore yuan tumbled 0.6% to 6.7930 per dollar, although it was still set for weekly gain of 0.5%. Separately, the offshore yuan overnight Hibor overnight rate declined 34.14% points, the most since January, to 8.68%. It rose more than 35% points on Wednesday and Thursday as the PBOC set off to crush yuan bears. Additionally, the CNH overnight deposit rate dropped for the first time in three days, down 21 percentage points to 2%, while CNH tomorrow- next forward points decline 60 to 5 as the offshore market has stabilized, if only for now.

In other currencies, the British pound dropped 0.1 percent to $1.2869, while the euro edged higher by 0.1 percent to $1.1221. The yen slipped 0.1 percent to 111.45 per dollar, after falling 0.5 percent on Thursday. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index added 0.1 percent, extending a 0.2 percent advance in the previous session.

“The move this morning is in dollar yen,” said Niels Christiansen, a strategist with Sweden’s Nordea Bank. “Good numbers yesterday and the record highs in equities if anything are dollar positive. The data hasn’t done a great deal for the dollar recently, but we’ll certainly be looking at the wage numbers today – that is crucial for inflation and the rate outlook.”

Even as stocks pushed on into record territory, oil prices resumed their slide with key futures contracts down more than 2 percent amid worries that Donald Trump’s decision to abandon a global climate pact could spark more crude drilling in the United States, stoking a persistent glut in global supply. Brent fell to $49.63 a barrel, while WTI dropping below $47, and set for the biggest weekly drop since May 5, while industrial metals including copper declined, driving the Bloomberg Commodity Index to the lowest in more than a year.

All eyes will be on today’s payrolls report: data showing a healthy uptick in private sector hiring and factory activity during May bolstered expectations that the U.S. economy was picking up speed and lifted stocks on Wall Street after two days of losses.

Bulletin Headline Summary

• Oil bears have sparked some volatility into a historically dull NFP Friday. WTI and Brent Crude futures both trade near session lows
• Not too much FX price action this morning, as one would expect ahead of the non farm payrolls release this afternoon
• Looking ahead, highlights include US jobs report, Fed’s Harker and Kaplan

Market Snapshot

• S&P 500 futures up 0.2% to 2,433.25
• STOXX Europe 600 up 0.6% to 393.83
• MXAP up 1% to 154.57
• MXAPJ up 0.6% to 501.55
• Nikkei up 1.6% to 20,177.28
• Topix up 1.6% to 1,612.20
• Hang Seng Index up 0.4% to 25,924.05
• Shanghai Composite up 0.09% to 3,105.54
• Sensex up 0.4% to 31,268.86
• Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.9% to 5,788.11
• Kospi up 1.2% to 2,371.72
• Brent Futures down 2% to $49.64/bbl
• Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,262.41
• U.S. Dollar Index unchanged at 97.20
• German 10Y yield fell 1.3 bps to 0.292%
• Euro up 0.1% to 1.1224 per US$
• Brent Futures down 2% to $49.64/bbl
• Italian 10Y yield rose 5.3 bps to 1.962%
• Spanish 10Y yield fell 2.9 bps to 1.534%

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

• Trump’s Paris Exit Leaves Him Isolated From C-Suites to Capitals
• Glaxo Submits First 2-Drug HIV Regimen to FDA, EMA
• JPMorgan’s Dimon Says ‘Absolutely Disagree’ on Paris Withdrawal
• Blue Apron Gets Ready to Prove Food-Delivery Chops on IPO Trail
• Citigroup Names Munir Nanji Global Subsidiaries Head for APAC
• PennTex Committe Recommends Unitholders to Accept ETP’s Offer
• Lehman Brothers Moves Closer to Resolving Mortgage Claims
• International Shipholding Receives Reorganization Plan Approvals
• KBL Merger IV Reports Pricing of IPO at $10 a Unit
• General Motors: End of Operations in Venezuela ‘Irreversible’
• Cook Says He Tried to Persuade Trump to Remain in Paris Accord
• U.S. Gas Exports to Mexico Down Amid Kinder NGPL Force Majeure
• Cardinal Energy to Buy Assets From Apache for C$330m in Cash
• Goldman’s Blankfein: Climate Decision ‘Setback for Environment’
• Cliffs CEO Praises Trump on Paris Climate Accord Withdrawal
• Charter Financial to Buy Resurgens Bancorp for About $26.3m
• Broadcom Indicates Ramp for New IPhone Slower Than in Past

Asia stock markets traded mostly higher following the positive lead from US, where all 3 major indices printed fresh record highs amid encouraging data including better than expected ADP jobs figures. This spurred momentum in the ASX 200 (+0.9%) and Nikkei 225 (+1.6%), with the latter also underpinned by a weaker currency to break above 20,000 for the 1st time since 2015. Chinese markets were mixed as the Hang Seng (+0.4%) conformed to the upbeat tone, while the Shanghai Comp. (+0.1%) lagged after a weaker daily liquidity operation and tighter conditions from the recent surges in money market rates. 10yr JGBs were flat with a lack of demand seen amid gains in riskier assets, although downside was stemmed following a firm Rinban announcement in which the BoJ were in the market for JPY 1 .13tln in government debt with maturities of 10yr and under. PBoC injected CNY 30bIn in 7-day reverse repos and CNY 20bIn in 14-day reverse repos, for a net weekly injection of CNY 30bIn vs. Prev. CNY 30bIn drain last week.

Top Asian News

• Chinese Firm Buys 253-Year-Old French Crystal Maker Baccarat
• Nikkei 225 Tops 20,000 as Investors Take Second Look at Japan
• India Tea Exports Seen Climbing as Drought Hurts Top Shipper
• Copper Traders Most Bearish in a Year on Signs of China Slowdown
• Steel Tycoon Mulls Foray Into Indian Non-Bank Finance Sector
• Some Bond Buyers Say Thanks for Indonesia Upgrade, Now Adieu

In Europe, oil bears sparked some volatility into a historically dull NFP Friday. WTI and Brent Crude futures both trade near session lows, down around a dollar on the session, as an aftermath from the United States’ withdrawal of the Paris Accord has been evident. An increase in US shale oil production could counteract attempts from OPEC and Russia to stabilize prices, with some touting that the US could add up to 1.5mln BPD to global oil production in 2018. The oil selling has resulted in Energy to lag, and the only S&P European sector to trade in the red, down around 0.50%. The financial sector leads European bourses to trade in the green, with the likes of RBS, Deutsche Bank, Credit Agricole and CS all leading their respective indices. Strong UK Construction PM! data failed to add to the risk sentiment, with traders seemingly brushing off the large beat seen in the figure, as no immediate bullish pressure was seen in the FTSE nor GBP. The risk appetite seen in equity markets has failed to faze fixed income markets, as subdued trade has been clear as we approach today’s NFP report. The Bund future found bids above 162.10, following the gap seen in the futures open, now trading up around 14 ticks on the session, looking towards the gap seen on 21st April..

Top European News

• U.K. Housing Lifts Construction Growth to Strongest Since 2015
• Bank of Russia May Raise GDP Forecast in June, Nabiullina Says
• Evonik New CEO Raises Profit Target, Pledges to Rejig Portfolio
• Renewed OPEC Deal Paradoxically Locked in Oil Slump: Rosneft CEO
• May Considers Replacing Brexit Secretary after Election: Times
• Blankfein Tweets, Iger Quits Trump Council in Climate Fury
• SocGen Sees More Upside for European Stocks on Fundamentals

In currencies, there has been not too much FX price action this morning, as one would expect ahead of the non farm payrolls release this afternoon. What we have seen is largely reflective of the moves seen in the commodity markets, and to that end, the CAD has been suffering as WTI falls to USD47.00 on the implications on US shale production from the US exit from the Paris Climate Agreement. USD/CAD has tested 1.3550, but as we noted first thing, we see strong resistance into 1.3600, some consolidation seen since.  EUR/USD continues to hold the low 1.1200’s, as dip buyers are keen not to miss out on the ECB QE taper move —some anticipating a signal next week. 1.1150-60 is initial support lower down should be break 1.1200. USD/JPY continues to hold the mid 111.00’s, as a positive US jobs report will spur a move on 112.00 again.

In commodities, across the board, we see losses in most commodities this morning, with focus on Oil once again as the production levels of US Shale dominate the headlines, and have been exacerbated by the US announcement to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, effectively freeing their hand on output levels. WTI losses have now extended into the low USD47.00’s, and momentum has taken Brent back under USD50.00, completely undermining the attempts by OPEC/non-OPEC week to contain price weakness. Support levels in Light Texas come in around USD46.00-45.0, but the mood has soured significantly, and selling is relentless. This may have contributed to the weakness elsewhere, but metals/iron ore losses are largely based on Chinese demand, and this is back in question after some soft PMI releases. Copper is back under USD2.55, with losses matched in Zinc, while Nickel extends the sell-off through USD9000 to over USD250. This may turn the risk mood sour again, but as yet, little pick up seen in Gold.

Looking at the day ahead, unsurprisingly the focus for today will come this afternoon with the May employment report. As well as payrolls it’s also worth keeping an eye on the unemployment rate (expected to hold steady at 4.4%) and average hourly earnings (expected to rise +0.2% mom and +2.6% yoy). Away from the employment report we’ll also get the April trade balance reading. Away from the data we’ve got the Fed’s Harker and Kaplan both scheduled to speak.

US Event Calendar

• 8:30am: Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 182,000, prior 211,000; Unemployment Rate, est. 4.4%, prior 4.4%;
  Average Hourly Earnings MoM, est. 0.2%, prior 0.3%; Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 2.6%, prior 2.5%; Average Weekly Hours All Employees, est. 34.4, prior 34.4
• Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.93%, prior 62.9%; Underemployment Rate, prior 8.6%
• Trade Balance, est. $46.1b deficit, prior $43.7b deficit
  12:45pm: Fed’s Harker Speaks About the Economic Outlook
• 1pm: Fed’s Kaplan Speaks in Dallas

DB’s Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Welcome to another payrolls Friday. DB expects a well above consensus 235k  print (market at 182k) which Joe LaVorgna notes is supported by a strong 253k ADP print yesterday. He thinks there was evidence of retail jobs stabilising in the report after a difficult period for the sector. Other reasons for Joe’s call is that  the four-week moving average of jobless claims during the May survey period was 241k, which was the lowest for any employment survey week since July 1973 (240k). Also he argues that withheld income tax receipts are tracking up close to 7% compared to a year ago, which points to rising income growth. Since tax receipts are a direct function of employment, hours and wages, the recent acceleration in income growth should at least partly be reflected in the pace of job gains. Joe remains less confident in wages, where the growth rate remains soft relative to the sub-5% level of the unemployment rate. After some recent data apathy if Joe is right on payrolls there will be some renewed excitement in markets.

As interesting as today is though, next Friday we may be in need of a cold towel and a lie down as by then it’ll be the morning after the night before in terms of knowing the results of the UK election, digesting a potentially pivotal ECB meeting and dealing with the aftermath of former FBI Director Comey testifying to the Senate Intelligence Committee. A super Thursday. Just on Comey, the Committee confirmed that the former FBI Director will firstly appear in an open session in the morning followed then by a closed meeting with the panel later in the day.

Over in markets, the first day of June was a welcome one as investors dissected a slew of largely solid PMIs in Europe and then the better than expected employment data and PMIs in the US. The S&P 500 (+0.76%) clocked up another new record high and had its strongest day since April 24th. The Dow (+0.65%) also closed at a record high while in Europe the Stoxx 600 (+0.43%) finally brought to an end a run of five consecutive daily declines. The positive tone came despite the news that President Trump is to take the US out of the Paris climate accord which he said was a deal “that punishes the US” at the expense of China and India. That said the President did leave the door open to a possible renegotiation of the current accord on more favourable terms or even a completely new agreement. It was noted though that the UN body that governs the Paris accord has said that the agreement is a historic treaty and “cannot be renegotiated based on the request of a single party”.

Over in bond markets the impact of the data was a small nudge up in the probability of a June rate hike to 88% from 84% just prior to the data based on Bloomberg’s calculator. 10y Treasuries (+0.9bps to 2.212%) stayed range bound while bond markets in Europe were a bit mixed again with Bunds flat, BTPs weaker (+5bps) and Portugal bonds stronger (-5bps). Meanwhile the big mover in commodities again was Iron Ore (-1.84%) which took another leg lower following that soft China PMI print yesterday. After reaching a high of nearly $95/tn back in February, Iron Ore has now tumbled 41% to $56/tn. Away from that Oil ended little changed despite being up over 1.70% intraday at one stage, while Gold (-0.23%) faded a bit.

This morning in Asia the positive momentum from Wall Street last night has largely continued into the Asia session. The Nikkei (+1.63%) has been the big mover, passing 20,000 for the first time since 2015,  while the Hang Seng (+0.30%), Kospi (+0.95%) and ASX (+0.95%) have also rallied. Bourses in China are however down about half a percent, perhaps still weighed down by yesterday’s soft PMI. In other news, overnight President Trump has asked the Supreme Court to immediately reinstate his travel ban on six countries. Meanwhile there’s a bit of focus on a Telegraph article last night suggesting that Amber Rudd will replace Philip Hammond as the UK Chancellor should the Tories win next week’s election with a majority. The FX market has largely ignored the headlines however.

Wrapping up, in terms of the other US data yesterday initial jobless claims were confirmed as rising a fairly modest 13k to 248k last week, while construction spending slipped -1.4% mom in April but only after March was revised up to a +1.1% gain from a previously negative reading. Total vehicle sales also declined to an annualised rate of 16.6m from 16.8m. All told the Atlanta Fed have now raised their Q2 GDP estimate to 4.0% from 3.8% previously. The only other thing to note was comments from the Fed’s Jerome Powell. Largely seen as a centrist, the Governor said that he sees two more rates this year as being  appropriate but also warned that the Fed must careful watch inflation for signs it is moving closer to target.

Looking at the day ahead, unsurprisingly the focus for today will come this afternoon with the May employment report in the US. As well as payrolls it’s also worth keeping an eye on the unemployment rate  (expected to hold steady at 4.4%) and average hourly earnings (expected to rise +0.2% mom and +2.6% yoy). Away from the employment report we’ll also get the April trade balance reading. This morning in Europe it’s pretty quiet with Euro area PPI for April the only release scheduled. Away from the data we’ve got the Fed’s Harker (5.45pm BST) and Kaplan (6pm BST) both scheduled to speak. Finally, UK PM  Theresa May and Labour leader Corbyn are to answer audience questions in a special BBC TV programme tonight.

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Authored by Mac Slavo via SHTFPlan.com,

 

The number of homeless people in Los Angeles is skyrocketing. In just one year, the figures revealed that the homeless population in the city grew 20% while the numbers for the wider Los Angeles County were even higher at 23%.

As if looking at those numbers isn’t cringeworthy enough, The Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority reported Wednesday that 6,000 homeless young people were tallied across the county in January, a 61% increase over the 2016 total. Most of the young people are ages 18 to 24. All the youth shelters have waiting lists and affordable housing is tough to find, even with a rent voucher, according to Heidi Calmus of Covenant House California, an international youth homeless services agency with a branch in Hollywood. “The system is overwhelmed,” Calmus said Tuesday night as she and a colleague, Nick Semensky, delivered toiletry bags and sandwiches to young people living in the streets.

Despite efforts to combat the problem, the number of homeless continue to go up. In 2015 authorities declared a public emergency as the numbers sleeping on the streets soared. City officials committed $100 million to tackle the problem. It’s safe to say that whatever is being done right now is not working.

Los Angeles County Supervisor Janice Hahn described the figures as “staggering.” “Homelessness in LA County has grown at a shocking rate,” she said in a statement. “Even as work is being done to get thousands of people off the street and into housing, more and more people are becoming homeless. It is clear that if we are going to end the homeless crisis, we need to stem the overwhelming tide of people falling into homelessness.”

But it isn’t that easy. Experts are placing the blame on soaring rents and a high cost of living as the two major factors. According to Expatistan.com, a 900 square foot furnished apartment will cost over $2400 per month.

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said there was “no sugarcoating the bad news”. “It’s impossible to wrap your head around the numbers,” he told reporters, adding that soaring rents and the city’s high cost of living were partly to blame. “We can’t let rents double every year,” he told reporters. Average rents in Los Angeles County have increased by 32% since 2000 while average household incomes for people renting have fallen by 3% when adjusted for inflation, according to the California Housing Partnership.

Mayor Garcetti is correct in that you cannot sugarcoat these numbers. In its latest report, the LAHSA said there were 57,794 people homeless in the county during its survey in January, compared to 46,874 in 2016. In the city there were 34,189 with no permanent roof over their heads, the report said, compared to 28,464 the year before.

The solution, according to the politicians in Los Angeles, is of course, to throw money at the problem. The county needs to build more than 550,000 affordable rental homes for low-income households, the LAHSA says. Los Angeles recently approved new measures to raise $1.2 billion in bonds to build 10,000 new units of housing for homeless people. There are also plans to raise about $3.5billion over 10 years to pay for other homelessness projects.

When the number of homeless increases this dramatically, it’s easy to see that the nation is in a bit of an economic bind.  It’s getting harder and harder to get by, and any sort of financial issue, no matter how small, could easily cause homelessness for those living paycheck to paycheck.

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The premium to bet on the pound’s volatility in the next two weeks relative to one-month wagers has surged to the highest level since the aftermath of the Brexit vote ahead of next week’s U.K. snap election.

As Bloomberg notes, even though polls suggest Prime Minister Theresa May remains on track to increase her parliamentary majority…

 

But, so-called butterfly options…

Show the pound’s moves in the next two weeks could be the largest since the currency’s flash crash in October, when it dropped 6 percent in just one minute.

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Authored by Soeren Kern via The Gatestone Institute,

• The court heard how Amer K. stabbed the mother of his three children in the chest and neck more than twenty times with a large kitchen knife, because he thought she wanted to divorce him.
• "Then he takes the knife and plunges it into her chest, [penetrating] the pericardium and heart muscle. A second stab opens the left abdominal cavity. Nurettin B. then pulls out the ax. With the blunt side he hits her head, cracking her skull. Then he grabs the rope. On one end he ties a gibbet knot around her neck, then he ties the other end to the trailer hitch on [his car]… He races through the streets at 80 km/h [until] the rope breaks." — State Prosecutor Ann-Kristin Fröhlich, reconstructing the husband's actions.
• In Ahaus, a 27-year-old Nigerian asylum seeker stabbed to death a 22-year-old woman after she seemingly offended his honor by rejecting his romantic advances.

The trial of a Kurdish man who tied one of his three wives to the back of a car and dragged her through the streets of a town in Lower Saxony has drawn attention to an outbreak of Muslim honor violence in Germany.

Honor violence – ranging from emotional abuse to physical and sexual violence to murder – is usually carried out by male family members against female family members who are perceived to have brought shame upon a family or clan.

Offenses include refusing to agree to an arranged marriage, entering into a relationship with a non-Muslim or someone not approved by the family, refusing to stay in an abusive marriage or living an excessively Western lifestyle. In practice, however, the lines between crimes of honor and crimes of passion are often blurred and any challenge to male authority can elicit retribution, which is sometimes staggeringly brutal.

On May 22, a court in Hanover heard how a 39-year-old Turkish-born Kurd named Nurettin B. attempted to murder his second wife, Kader K., 28, after she asked him to provide financial support for their two-year-old son. State Prosecutor Ann-Kristin Fröhlich reconstructed Nurettin B.'s actions:

"At around 6PM on November 20, 2016, Nurettin B. got into his car in Hamelin to meet Kader K. The trunk contained a knife, an ax and a rope. Sitting on the back seat of the car was their two-year-old son, who had spent the weekend with him. On the street, the former couple got into an argument and he begins hitting her. Then he takes the knife and plunges it into her chest. The 12.4 centimeter long blade penetrates the pericardium and heart muscle. A second stab opens the left abdominal cavity. Nurettin B. then pulls out the ax. With the blunt side he hits her head and upper body, cracking her skull.

 

"Then he grabs the rope. On one end he ties a gibbet knot around her neck, then he ties the other end to the trailer hitch on the back of his black VW Passat. Nurettin B. steps on the gas. He races through the streets at 80 km/h (50 mph). After 208 meters (680 feet) the rope breaks. Kader K. is hurled against the curb. Nurettin B. drives to the police station to turn himself in. The child is still sitting in the back seat."

Presiding Judge Wolfgang Rosenbusch asked Kader K., who was comatose for weeks, to tell her side of the story. She said "the horror" began immediately after their Islamic sharia wedding (the marriage is not valid according to German law) in March 2013, when Nurettin B. prohibited her from having any contact with friends and family. She was allowed to leave the house only for grocery shopping and medical visits. She was not allowed to have a mobile phone. Rosenbusch asked: "Does he have a problem with women?" Kader K. replied: "He believes women are slaves; they must keep silent."

Nurettin B. has confessed to the crime but insists it was not premeditated. He has been charged with attempted murder and faces a maximum sentence of 15 years in prison.

The picturesque town of Hamelin, Germany was the scene of horrific honor violence, when a Turkish-born Kurd named Nurettin B. attempted to murder one of his three wives. (Image source: Martin Möller/Wikimedia Commons)

On May 9, a court in Kiel sentenced 35-year-old Turkish man to two-and-a-half years in prison for shooting his estranged wife in both knees and permanently laming her, in the hope that she would be unattractive to other men. The court heard how the man took his wife to the back of a local mosque after Friday prayers, accused her of offending his honor and shot her, saying: "Now you can no longer walk. You will stay at home."

In court, however, the woman, possibly under pressure from her family or the mosque, told the court that they couple had reconciled and would attend marriage counselling. Some observers surmised that the dispute may have been resolved in a sharia court. In any event, the German court allowed the man to return home with his wife and it remains unclear if and when he will serve his sentence.

In Münster, a court sentenced a 36-year-old Lebanese man named Amer K. to 12 years in prison for stabbing his wife to death. The court heard how Amer K. stabbed 26-year-old Fatima S., the mother of his three children, in the chest and neck more than twenty times with a large kitchen knife because he thought she wanted to divorce him.

Meanwhile, a court in Hanau sentenced a 22-year-old Syrian refugee to twelve years in prison for stabbing to death his 30-year-old sister, Ramia A., with a kitchen knife. She was 23 weeks pregnant and was accused of having brought shame to her family. Her unborn child also died in the attack.

The true scale of Germany's honor crime problem is unknown: many such crimes go unreported and reliable statistics do not exist. Empirical evidence indicates that honor violence — primarily but not exclusively the product of Muslim culture and Islamic law, sharia — has metastasized since Chancellor Angela Merkel allowed in some two million migrants from Africa, Asia and the Middle East.

In March 2011, the Max Planck Institute published a landmark study on honor killings. The study analyzed all such crimes known to have occurred in Germany between 1996 and 2005. The report found that there were two honor killings in 1998 and 12 in 2004. By 2016, however, the number had jumped to more than 60, an increase of 400%, according to the website Ehrenmord.

The actual number of honor crimes presumably is much higher. Increased censorship by the police and the media, aimed at stemming anti-immigration sentiments, makes it impossible to know the names and national origins of many victims or perpetrators, or the true circumstances surrounding many murders, which often appear to be honor killings but are downplayed as "domestic disputes" (Familienangelegenheiten).

2017 is nevertheless on track to be a record year for honor violence in Germany; in the first five months of this year, there have been at least 30 honor killings, including the following:

May 18. In Berlin, a 32-year-old Bosnian, Edin A., murdered his former girlfriend, a 35-year-old German woman named Michelle E., after she ended their abusive relationship. He also abducted and tortured her 12-year-old son, who was forced to watch his mother's murder. Neighbors said they had repeatedly alerted the police about Edin A.'s violent behavior, but the police did nothing.

May 17. In Pforzheim, a 53-year-old Tajik man stabbed to death his 50-year-old wife at her place of employment, a Christian daycare center. It remains unclear if the woman was a convert to Christianity.

May 17. In Wardenburg, a 37-year-old Iraqi man stabbed to death his 37-year-old wife while she was asleep in her bed. The couple's five children, between the ages of four and 15, were at home at the time of the murder and are now living with relatives.

May 8. In Neuendettelsau, a 24-year-old Ethiopian asylum seeker, Mohammed G., stabbed his 22-year-old girlfriend in the stomach at a restaurant after she allegedly "provoked" him. The woman was five months pregnant; the unborn baby died in the attack.

May 4. In Freiburg, a 33-year-old Syrian asylum seeker stabbed his 24-year-old wife, a Kurdish Christian who had moved out of the couple's apartment, but had returned to collect some personal belongings. The couple's three children — aged six, three and ten months — are now in protective custody.

April 29. In Prien am Chiemsee, a 29-year-old Afghan man stabbed to death a 38-year-old Afghan woman, Farima S., who had converted to Christianity. The attacker ambushed the woman as she was exiting a grocery store with her two children.

April 23. In Syke, a 32-year-old Iraqi man, Murad B., strangled his 32-year-old wife, Mehe K., in front of the couple's three children, ages one, two and nine.

April 23. In Dresden, a 29-year-old Pakistani refugee, Shahajan Butt, murdered his girlfriend, a 41-year-old Vietnamese woman named Thu T. Police say the man, who arrived in Germany in December 2015, became enraged after he noticed that the woman had not posted any photos of him on her Facebook page, and suspected that she may have had another boyfriend.

April 16. In Mainz-Finthen, a 39-year-old Egyptian asylum seeker stabbed to death his 32-year-old wife. Police said the couple had been arguing at the time of the attack. Their two children are being held in protective custody.

April 5. In Leipzig, a 34-year-old Syrian man stabbed his 28-year-old wife because she wanted a divorce. The couple's two children witnessed the attack; they are being held in protective custody.

March 31. In Gütersloh, a 43-year-old Syrian man burned his 18-year-old daughter with a cigarette and threatened to kill her. When the police intervened, the father refused to allow his daughter to leave the house. After police succeeded in bringing the girl to safety, the father and son attacked the police, who used pepper-spray to fend them off. The girl is being held in protective custody.

March 15. In Kiel, a 40-year-old German-Turkish man stabbed to death his 34-year-old Turkish wife in front of a daycare center. Neighbors said the couple, who were separated, had quarreled about moving their three children to Turkey.

March 4. In Duisburg, a 30-year-old Syrian asylum seeker, Mahmood Mahrusseh, stabbed his 32-year-old ex-girlfriend. The woman survived; her attacker remains at large.

March 3. In Mönchengladbach, a 32-year-old asylum seeker, Ahmed Salim, murdered a 47-year-old German woman, Nicole M., apparently after she ended a relationship with him. The man, who also uses the alias Jamal Amilia, was arrested in Spain. In his asylum application, he had written that he was from Israel. In another asylum application filed in another country, he had written that he was from Morocco. He is believed to be from Iraq.

March 2. In Scheeßel, a 42-year-old Iraqi man stabbed to death his 52-year-old wife, also from Iraq. Police described the murder as an honor killing. The couple's children are now in protective custody.

February 25. In Euskirchen, a 32-year-old German-Turkish man stabbed to death his former girlfriend, a 32-year-old German woman who had begun dating someone else.

February 17. In Offenbach, a 32-year-old Turkish man, Volkan T., shot to death his former girlfriend, a 40-year-old woman, Silvia B. The man said he was angry that the woman, who had two children, had ended her relationship with him.

February 15. In Bielefeld, a 51-year-old Iraqi man tried to murder his 51-year-old wife by attacking her with a hammer while she was attending a German class at a local language academy. The man was apparently angry that his wife was mixing with other language students.

February 10. In Ahaus, a 27-year-old Nigerian asylum seeker stabbed to death a 22-year-old woman after she seemingly offended his honor by rejecting his romantic advances. The woman, a Hindu, was employed at the same asylum shelter where her attacker lived. He was arrested in Basel, Switzerland.

February 7. In Hanover-Mühlenberg, a 21-year-old Serbian man stabbed his ex-girlfriend after she ended their relationship and had begun dating someone else.

February 1. In Hamburg, a 26-year-old Afghan man stabbed his estranged 28-year-old wife during an argument; she survived the attack.

January 15. In Bremen-Vegesack, a 39-year-old Turkish man murdered his 40-year-old Syrian wife, who was nine months pregnant, because she wanted to divorce him. The unborn baby also died during the attack.

January 5. In Waldshut-Tiengen, a 47-year-old Turkish man stabbed his estranged wife as she was walking with a friend. When she tried to run away, he pursued her and plunged a knife in her back.

January 4. In Köln-Buchheim, a 44-year-old Iraqi man murdered his 19-year-old daughter because he did not approve of her boyfriend. Two days later, he called police. "I killed my daughter," he said. The man may never face justice; he is believed to have fled to Iraq.

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For the first time in history, both the ECB and BoJ balance sheets have grown larger than the Fed's.

The BoJ’s balance sheet topped the JPY500tn (USD4.48tn) mark at the end of May, central bank data showed today.

 

Furthermore, the latest data also shows the pace of the increase in BoJ's holdings has slowed considerably in recent months.

At the end of May, the central bank’s holding was up JPY70.7tn from a year earlier, more than 10% below the BoJ's official guideline of an annual increase of JPY80tn .

However, its the ECB and BOY buying that is keeping the world's equity markets alive since The Fed ended QE3…

So what happens next?

The Fed has attempted to make the market believe that it will run down the balance sheet as it matures… Which will be a lumpy tightening in monetary conditions…

 

And unless someone steps up… the global central bank balance sheet will collapse… and that will not end well for global equity markets…

 

Is this what happens next?

remember last time BoJ tried to reduce balance sheet? http://pic.twitter.com/uRbZdsDhjz

— Aurelija Augulyte (@auaurelija) April 6, 2017

or will the world lose faith in its reserve currency before?

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Authored by Peter Korzun via The Strategic Culture Foundation,

The recent NATO summit took a decision to formally become a member of the US-led coalition fighting the Islamic State (IS), in addition to its training mission in Iraq.

Last year, NATO started a training and capacity-building mission for Iraqi armed forces. In January, it opened a regional center in Kuwait. NATO AWACS aircraft operate in Syria. But the participation in combat actions against the IS has so far been limited to a few aircraft taking part in the operations of the US-led coalition of the willing. Formally, each alliance member contributes to the coalition, but NATO as its own entity does not. Despite the coalition’s efforts, the IS had grown and expanded in Syria till Russia launched its military operation there in 2015.

France and Germany have always had reservations about the prospect of joining the anti-IS coalition as an alliance, concerned that it would lead to NATO taking over the fight or overshadowing regional partners, such as Jordan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Italy has been skeptical of the plan.

Despite all the speeches ringing alarm bells about the deadly threat coming from the IS – the mortal enemy of the West that vowed to fight it till it exists – the bloc’s combat ready forces are deploying…against Russia in the Eastern Europe! As a result, the alliance has seen no need to counter the IS plans to create a caliphate. It stubbornly turns a blind eye on the peril coming from the South.

Migrant flows are flooding the territories of European alliance members, terrorist acts are committed to kill citizens of the NATO member states, US and Turkish military are fighting the extremists on the ground but the bloc largely limits itself to words of condemnation while demonizing Russia – the country which says it does not want to provoke confrontation and calls for a dialogue!

The summit’s decision to join the fight comes at a time the US, UK and France-backed rebel forces based in Jordan are reported to be preparing for operations on Syrian soil. On May 18, US aircraft struck a convoy of forces affiliated with the Syrian government. The attack occurred in far southern Syria near al-Tanf, along the Syria-Iraq border – an area where US Special Operations Forces (SOF) are training local fighters. The leading NATO member plunged directly into the Syrian conflict taking sides. Evidently, the move signaled broadening of American involvement in the six-year Syrian civil war. The US has led the anti-IS in Syria since 2014, but so far has avoided engaging with Syrian government or Iran-backed forces.

The US, the UK and France are the leading members of the alliance and there is little doubt they are preparing to cross the border and establish control over the region where the borders of Jordan, Syria, and Iraq meet. They will need support of other nations, especially the allied ones and it coincides with NATO’s decision to become part of the anti-IS operation. The control over the area by NATO-supported forces will include a key highway from Baghdad to Damascus that Iran has used to supply weapons to Syrian forces. Al-Tanf is a strategic crossing located at the intersection of the Jordanian, Iraq, and Syrian borders and commands the No.1 Route linking Baghdad with Damascus and the Jordanian capital of Amman.

It all happens at a time NATO members involved in the combat actions and Israel are deeply concerned over the recent visit of a high-ranking Iraqi military to Damascus to discuss the situation on the Syrian-Iraqi border. The allegation that Iraq’s Prime Minister Haidar al-Abadi has pivoted his support away from the US-led campaign to the Russia-Turkey-Iran coalition adds even more fuel to the fire.

Definitely, the contribution will increase. Right after the summit on May 25, the Netherlands announced the decision to send two more warplanes to fight the IS. From mid-June a Dutch KDC-10 tanker aircraft will be stationed in Kuwait. And in the last quarter of the year, a C-130 transport plane will be contributed to the fight for two months. About 90 military personnel will go with the planes. The new deployment will temporarily increase the number of Dutch soldiers in Iraq to about 175, twenty more than previously agreed. The Dutch commandos currently supporting Iraqi troops on the front will be equipped with armored vehicles and other weapons systems from next month. The Netherlands also expressed readiness to contribute several F-16 fighters from early next year. Other NATO members will increase the contribution to support the NATO effort. It will increase but it is worth to remember that the bloc’s operations in Libya and Afghanistan ended up in failure.

Expanding NATO role in Syria may lead to either confrontation or coordination, or at least de-confliction, with the Russia-Syria-Iran forces. Turkey, a NATO country, is a member of Russia-Turkey-Iran trio pushing forward the Astana peace process. And the common enemy is the IS. Coordination of efforts appears to be a logical step. The issue should top the NATO-Russia Council agenda along with the plans to establish de-escalation zones. It could be discussed with Russian President Vladimir Putin during the G20 summit.

Some arrangement with Russia is unavoidable. But is it an achievable goal with NATO building up its forces in the Baltics, Poland, Romania and the whole Black Sea region? Can Russia and NATO fruitfully coordinate efforts, or even cooperate, in Syria with tensions running high in Europe? Evidently, the standoff between Russia and NATO benefits no one but IS. Finding mutual understanding is indispensable to defeat the common enemy. Actually, playing off the West against Russia is the IS only hope for survival. That’s the expectation the group must be deprived of. It remains to be seen if these arguments are taken into consideration as NATO joins the fray.

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Authored by Byron King via DailyReckoning.com,

China is currently modifying the terms of its oil trade with Saudi Arabia. Specifically, China is working on a deal to pay for Saudi oil using Chinese yuan. This effort poses a direct threat to the security of the dollar.

If this China-Saudi deal happens — yuan for oil — it’s another step closer to the grave for the petrodollar, which has dominated global finance since 1974. You can revisit Jim Rickards article about the Assault on the Dollar, here.

To recap, the petrodollar is weakening because the dollar is losing power as the world’s reserve currency. This is similar to the way pounds sterling gradually fell out of favor during the decline of the British Empire. The decline may take a long time, but what we’re seeing today is another step in the death march of the dollar.

Since 1974, Saudi has accepted payment for almost all of its oil exports — to all countries — in dollars. This is due to an agreement between Saudi and the U.S., dating back to the days of President Nixon.

Beginning about 15 years ago, China ceased being self-sufficient in oil, and began buying Saudi oil. As per all Saudi customers, China had to pay in dollars. Even today, China still pays for Saudi oil in U.S. dollars and not yuan, which perturbs China’s leaders.

Since 2010, China’s total oil imports have nearly doubled. According to Bloomberg News, China has surpassed the U.S. as the world’s largest oil importing nation. Here’s a chart, showing the trend.

As China imports more and more oil, the idea of paying for that oil in yuan instead of dollars becomes more critical. China does not want to use dollars to buy oil. So, China is beginning to squeeze Saudi over the form of currency in which their oil trade is conducted. China is doing this by steadily lowering its oil purchases from Saudi.

Presently, China’s three top oil suppliers are Russia, Saudi and the West African nation of Angola. Backing-up these three key suppliers are a combination of sources in Iran, Iraq and Oman, which help to diversify China’s oil-supply chain.

In the past few years, China has shifted oil purchases away from Saudi, and Russia’s oil exports have risen from 5% to 15% of the Chinese total.

China imports more oil from Russia, Iran, Iraq and Oman; less from Saudi.

Saudi’s share of Chinese imports has dropped from over 25% in 2008, to under 15% now. Meanwhile, Saudi competitors Russia, Iran, Iraq and Oman are selling more oil to China.

Saudi would like to reverse this declining trend of oil-trade with China. However, these kind of major oil flows don’t just happen in a vacuum.

There’s a good reason why Russian oil sales to China are increasing. As you’ll see in Nomi’s article, trade and financial services are often closely linked. Over the past few years, China has deepened its trading roots with Russia — now, China pays for Russian oil in yuan. Russia, in turn, uses yuan to buy goods from China.

Beyond trade in goods, within the past six months Russia has set up a branch of the Bank of Russia in Beijing. From there, Russia can use its Chinese yuan to buy gold on the Shanghai Exchange. In a sense, Chinese-Russian oil trade is now backed-up by a “gold standard.”

Looking ahead, Saudi Arabia will find itself more and more locked-out of the Chinese oil market if it won’t sell oil for yuan. But to do this, the Saudis must move away from U.S. dollars— and from petrodollars — if Saudi wants to maintain and increase access to China’s oil market.

We’ll know more about the likelihood of this after Donald Trump’s tour of the Middle East.

If Saudi begins accepting yuan for oil, all bets are off on the petrodollar. Yuan-for-oil will entirely change the monetary dynamics of global energy flows. I expect the U.S. dollar to weaken severely when that news breaks.

Much of this oil-for-yuan news is public information. Yet, for some strange reason, there’s a form of blindness within western policymaking and media circles concerning the implications of yuan-for-oil. The idea is so “off-the-wall” that many policy leaders simply ignore it.

Ignore away. But we could wake up one morning in the midst of a massive currency crisis, in which dollar values are falling and oil prices in dollars are soaring.

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A long list of U.S. jobs are being rendered obsolete by technological advancements and automation. Which workers are most at risk?

You will find more statistics at Statista

Statista's Niall McCarthy notes that according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, locomotive firer is the job set to shrink the most over the coming decade. A locomotive firer is responsible for monitoring instruments on trains as well as watching for signals and dragging equipment. The workforce is small, numbering 1,700 in 2014. By 2024, however, that is going to decrease even further to just 500, a decline of 70 percent.

Motor vehicle electionic equipment installers and repairers are also set to see their ranks decimated by 2024. 11,500 of them were employed in the U.S. in 2014 and a decade later, that is expected to fall sharply to 5,800. Telephone operators are the third most endangered profession in America with their numbers expected to drop 42.4 percent by 2024.

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