Month: June 2017

Will he, or won't he?

Update: Bloomberg reports that person familiar with the decision have confirmed The White House plans to withdraw from the Paris Climate Accord.

The withdrawal will take three years and Trump will rework the Paris terms in the meantime.

• TRUMP TO SAY PARIS AGREEMENT "FRONT LOADS COSTS ON AMERICAN PEOPLE" -DOCUMENT
• TRUMP TO SAY ANNOUNCEMENT TO WITHDRAW FROM PARIS AGREEMENT "IS KEEPING HIS CAMPAIGN PROMISE TO PUT AMERICAN WORKERS FIRST"

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As we detailed earlier, following Axios' reported rumors yesterday that President Trump is ready to announce his withdrawal from the Paris Climate Accord, the establishment has begun its mourning and fearmongering of the disaster about to befall the world.

Microsoft, Apple, Facebook, Google, Gap, Mars and Tiffany & Co. joined a group of large businesses in publishing an open letter to Trump asking him not to end the United States participation in the global warming agreement…

Axios notes that Trump allies say with no ironclad policy convictions on climate, and buffeted by conflicting campaigns from rival advisers – Trump defaulted toward delivering on a campaign promise that catered to his last refuge, the voters who put him in office.

 

Ahead of the speech, Axios' Jonathan Swan describes the behind the scenes action…

Want to know how volatile many administration officials consider Trump? As the sun went down on Wednesday, Trump had told confidants, including EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt, that he was withdrawing from the Paris deal. A withdrawal speech had been drafted and redrafted. An announcement for the withdrawal had been planned for Thursday (today). A whole team of policy wonks inside the EPA had been told to work up mechanisms for withdrawal.

 

AND YET, numerous White House officials told me in confidence throughout the day that while they were as sure as could be that Trump would pull the trigger, they wouldn't believe it until they saw it.

 

[The West Wing buzzed] about the West Coast elites like Elon Musk and Tim Cook, who were making last-ditch pleas to Trump. And movement conservatives vented to me about the liberal influence of Ivanka.

 

All the while, Trump kept asking people's opinions, and expressing doubt, even after setting the train in full motion towards withdrawal. When this thing is over, a good number of West Wing staff will have acquired some new gray hairs.

Finally, as The DailyMail.com reports, Myron Ebell, the head of Trump's environmental division during the presidential transition, said Thursday morning that 'all signs are good' for a Paris exit and he does not believe 'the president is going to disappoint.'

The White House insider and director of global warming policy at the Competitive Enterprise Institute told DailyMail.com, 'I think you can take it to the bank that he's going withdraw.'

 

A spokesman for the Heartland Institute, Jim Lakely, said the conservative organization's president was headed to Washington for the ceremony at the invitation of the White House.

 

'I don’t think they’d invite him if the Ivanka/Jared side of the tug-of-war on this issue won the argument,' he concurred.

Pulling out will mean the U.S. joins Russia, Iran, North Korea and a string of Third World countries in not putting the agreement into action. Just two countries are not in the deal at all – one of them war-torn Syria, the other Nicaragua.

The Hill notes that many Republicans on Capitol Hill are likely to support pulling out of the Paris deal – 20 leading Senate Republicans, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) asked Trump to do just that last week. Withdrawing from Paris would greatly please conservative groups, which have orchestrated an all-out push in opposition to the pact.

“Without any impact on global temperatures, Paris is the open door for egregious regulation, cronyism, and government spending that would be disastrous for the American economy as it is proving to be for those in Europe,” said Nick Loris, a fellow at the Heritage Foundation.

 

"It is time for the U.S. to say ‘au revoir’ to the Paris agreement,” he said.

Trump wants his presidency to be about jobs and his decision to be viewed as an economic win for the United States.

A recent report commissioned by the oil industry-backed American Council for Capital Formation found that the deal would eliminate $3 trillion in GDP and 6.5 million jobs by 2040.

 

A Heritage Foundation paper last year didn’t go quite as far. It predicted that the agreement would prevent 400,000 jobs and cause a GDP loss of $2.5 trillion.

Yet there are also economic arguments for staying in the pact.

The International Renewable Energy Agency estimated recently that the pact would make the world $19 trillion richer by 2050.

Live Feed (President Trump is due to speak at 3pm ET)…

The big question is… What Will Elon Do?

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Gunfire and explosions have been reported at the luxury Resorts World Manila hotel in the Philippines. A masked gunman was on the second floor of one hotel, firing at guests, hotel employees fleeing the scene told CNN Philippines.

Police, fire trucks and SWAT teams were seen in the area at about 1:30 a.m. local time Friday to deal with what may be a terrorist event, and takes place just days after president Duterte launched martial law in Mindanao in crackdown against local terrorist activity.

#Manila #Philippines – reports of explosions/gunfire at Resorts World Manila, near the Manila Intl Airport. Avoid area & monitor local news.

— Travel – State Dept (@TravelGov) June 1, 2017

One picture featured white smoke billowing from the top of the complex.

Thick smoke coming off from the top floor or Resorts World Manila. Gunshots were allegedly heard by people inside the casino area. http://pic.twitter.com/LeiTXdePCM

— Dexter Cabalza (@dexcabalzaINQ) June 1, 2017

The venue, Resorts World Manila, also known as RWM, is a resort complex in Newport City which consists of 4 integrated hotels,39 restaurants, a shopping and a gambling area located in metropolitan Manila. RWM has an array of hotels, restaurants and bars. Tourists flock to the complex for its casino, shopping mall, cinema and theater.

“Resorts World Manila is currently on lockdown following reports of gunfire from unidentified men,” the resort posted to its Twitter feed.

Resorts World Manila is currently on lockdown following reports of gunfire from unidentified men.

— Resorts World Manila (@rwmanila) June 1, 2017

We ask for your prayers during these difficult times.

— Resorts World Manila (@rwmanila) June 1, 2017

The complex, which is described on RWM’s website as “the first and largest integrated resort in the Philippines,” is located across from Ninoy Aquino International Airport.

Casualties were seen being carried out on stretchers and loaded up onto ambulances, or helped to make their own way out of the center in the aftermath of the incident, which occurred at about 1:30am local time on Friday morning

NOW: Possibly an #ISIS-linked gunmen stormed a resort in #Manila, #Phillipine.. Casualties feared.. http://pic.twitter.com/sTHOZxlNet

— Raveen Aujmaya (@raveenaujmaya) June 1, 2017

BREAKING: Ilang tao, sugatan matapos magmadaling lumabas ng Resorts World Manila sa Pasay. Nakarinig kami ng 2 pang putok ng baril. @dzbb http://pic.twitter.com/MdB5Aj5iaC

— James Agustin (@_jamesJA) June 1, 2017

The Philippines has been grappling with incidents of terrorism, especially on the southern island of Mindanao. There, in the city of Marawi, government forces have been battling ISIS-linked militants for control of the city.

The battle for Marawi, a largely Muslim city, has displaced at least 70,000 residents and left 140 people dead. The terrorist siege unfolded last week as Muslims worldwide began to mark the holy month of Ramadan.

Employees of Resorts World Manila ran out after hearing gun fire from the second floor. Bonnet-wearing men are the suspects. @inquirerdotnet http://pic.twitter.com/zqGEo7lcAB

— Dexter Cabalza (@dexcabalzaINQ) June 1, 2017

Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte declared martial law over the island of Mindanao last week after the crisis began. Duterte has suggested he might extend martial law until the end of the year or impose it nationwide, alarming critics.

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Via The Daily Bell

Startup societies are disrupting the industry called government. New methods of governance are being experimented with that promise to make the old dinosaurs of social control go extinct.

When new governments are formed, people can vote with their feet for the best style of governance.

If people want to join a commune, they can go right ahead, but they won’t be able to force others into the mix with them.

That means the people who want to innovate, start a business, create wealth, and try new methods of running society will have that opportunity. They have the chance to show the world a better way, or simply fail and only hurt themselves.

It is not so much a particular type of society we need to try (though I have plenty of opinions on that); what we need is to simply be able to start trying.

Let governments be a service offered to customers. Let people choose what kinds of laws and regulations they want to live under. Allow experimental government, and we will quickly see the benefits and detriments of various philosophies and systems.

That is the goal of the Startup Societies Foundation: allow different types of social systems to be explored.

Many of these experiments fail before they can really be tried. This first hurdle is the biggest one. We need to find a way to set up these micro-governments in order to be the Petri dishes of future society.

That is why the Startup Societies Foundation does research on past and current city states, micro-nations, and special economic zones. They find out what worked, and what caused failures.

At this early stage in the organization’s history, the biggest benefit they give is connecting people at summits to share knowledge, ideas, expertise, and technologies that will make this dream a reality.

…politics has not kept pace with this exponential growth. Elections around the world have been polarizing and unconstructive. Poverty, inequality, injustice, tyranny, unaccountability, ecological disaster and transparency seem to be rampant.

It is time to use entrepreneurship to create better governance. By creating a “startup society”, (an experimental government in a small geographic area) governance has the ability to experiment when traditional government cannot…

Like a startup, a startup society begins small and scales when it produces a better service through technology.  65% of the earth’s population will live in cities by 2040. This presents an unprecedented opportunity for entrepreneurs. They can become innovators of the greatest wealth creation tool: cities.

The next conference will be in San Francisco on August 11 and 12th. If you are in the area or want to travel, you can get tickets to attend the event through the IndiGoGo campaign. But even if you cannot attend the summit, consider donating to support this organization which is making strides towards a better society.

(By the way, this is the same organization which used Bitcoin to crowdfund a Venezuelan man’s escape from the crumbling socialist dictatorship.)

 

But don’t just take my word for the necessity of competition among governments to improve society. Let’s take a look at some historical examples.

Roger Williams: Providence Plantation

In the 1600’s people starting coming to America from England to form permanent settlements. Various plantations were chartered by private companies and individuals. Roger Williams was kicked out of the Massachusetts colony for promoting religious tolerance and went on to form his own colony in what is now Rhode Island.

The Native Americans liked him because he traded with them, and learned their language. He was truly interested in what they had to offer and criticized other westerners who thought of them as savages. After all, Williams argued, the people of Britain were not so different 1000 years before.

Officials from Boston, Plymouth, and Salem fought to stop Williams from staking out his own government philosophy for the colony he started, but he fought back and persevered to keep his vision of a free society intact.

If he did not have the ability to form his own colony, then he couldn’t have offered people unprecedented religious freedom. Because of the ability to form an experimental government, people moving to America had more choice, and more say in their government.

The colony itself has obviously been absorbed by larger governments, but the foundation of freedom left its mark on the developing nation. Roger Williams created something new, gave people a choice, and helped grow America into an economic powerhouse. His example is one to study and emulate.

Balkanization of Europe

European countries, kingdoms, and principalities were forced to compete with each other due to the nature of the land mass. Because of the many geographic barriers and separations, statelets were kept relatively unique and small, which led to competition.

If one state adopted a promising technology, say the printing press, other countries would have to adopt it and therefore advance, or risk being outcompeted economically or militarily by their neighbors. Europeans quickly adopted the printed press, leading to a period of rapid enlightenment in which access to information allowed huge advancements in technology and the standard of living.

The Ottoman Empire, however, banned the printing press, keeping them in stagnation, and under the old power structure which maintained control but strangled prosperity, education, and advancement.

Europe’s decentralization fueled the growth of industry by allowing inventions and innovations to travel easily from statelet to statelet, but not be so easily wiped out by decree of one ruler.

If a ruler was against a promising advance in society, you needed only travel a hundred miles and settle in a place where the government was more conducive to freedom, technology, or whatever it was you were looking for.

China, on the other hand, shows what happened under a singular united power. First, the area was quite advanced, especially the naval fleet which traveled all the way to Europe with advanced ships a thousand years before Columbus sailed. They were lucky to have people in power who promoted innovation.

But that changed with the flip of a coin when a rival faction took power. They dismantled the Navy, and outlawed shipping, in order to crush their rival faction. This set China back immensely. Unlike Europe, you couldn’t simply move 100 miles and be free to resume shipbuilding. The giant landmass of China was united under very few rulers, and what they said was the law.

So it is not impossible for a large centralized government to allow civilization to advance, but it is a coin toss. Many competing states in a relatively small area, however, require rulers to be open to new ideas, or else lose their power to rival states.

The “market” for where people want to live and work dictated to the European rulers what they had to do in order to make their countries attractive and prosperous.

The Modern City States and Micro-Nations

Because of these historical examples, it should be no wonder that some of the most innovative and technologically advanced countries are very small.

Dubai is embracing technology, erecting magnificent buildings, and will soon be transporting people around in drone taxis.

Singapore is one of the most business and investment friendly places on Earth, which means more innovation and experimentation.

Liechtenstein is leading the way in small rich countries with a decentralized government, and the ability of each town to secede.

But the problem is that it is hard to form a small society that is not already carved out of the larger land masses governments control. Places like Catalonia are trying, but the states they are trying to secede from are obviously not too keen on the idea. Spain is fighting hard to keep Catalonia in its grasp, all while trying to bring an unwilling Gibraltar back into the fold.

Cities are becoming more popular but their governance is inherently different in needs than suburbs and the countryside. An ordinance about noise, or owning chickens makes sense in a city, less sense in a suburb, and no sense at all in the countryside.

Yet look at New York City, which basically dictates what type of government the entire state of New York will have. Why should the government of farm country in upstate New York be subject to the same government as one of the largest most populated and diverse cities on Earth?

It shouldn’t. They have nothing in common, and the only reason these vastly different peoples are grouped together is by arbitrarily drawn borders from politicians and governments wishing to assert their control.

There is really only one group of people who have any reason to be against startup societies: the people who currently hold power. Allowing people to go their separate ways is a major threat to the powers that have held control over humans in the same way for thousands of years.

They are terrified that someone is going to create a better system that actually solves the problems government has been pretending to solve, but really only exacerbating.

The Startup Societies Foundation is poised to help upset the industry in biggest need of serious change: government.

 

 

 

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Authored by Carey Wedler via TheAntiMedia.org,

In the United States, a crazed racist is currently facing murder charges for stabbing multiple men who attempted to stop him from harassing two teenage girls. In a court appearance, he justified his murder of two Americans, one a military veteran, by citing “free speech.”

On the other end of the spectrum, in Switzerland, a man was just convicted of liking Facebook comments that implied the plaintiff was racist, highlighting the potential dangers of regulating speech.

The Guardian reported:

“According to a statement from the Zurich district court, the 45-year-old defendant accused an animal rights activist, Erwin Kessler, of racism and antisemitism and hit the ‘like’ button under several comments from third parties about Kessler that were deemed inflammatory.

 

“The comments were made in 2015 during heated discussions on a range of Facebook groups about which animal welfare groups should be permitted to take part in a vegan street festival, the Swiss daily Tages Anzeiger reported.”

Kessler was previously convicted under an anti-racism law almost twenty years ago and received a short prison sentence for “comparing Jewish ritual slaughter methods to Nazi practices,” a conviction already questionable in and of itself.

Kessler sued over a dozen Facebook commenters over their 2015 statements. The unnamed man convicted of liking comments was the only defendant found guilty without actually posting his own Facebook comments. The court ruled that “[b]y clicking the like button, ‘the defendant clearly endorsed the unseemly content and made it his own,’” as noted by the Guardian.

The court also determined that the defendant had insulted Kessler’s “honor” and, by liking the “unproven” comments, exposed their content to large numbers of people. The court ruled the defendant failed to prove the allegations were true.

The comment-liking defendant was fined 4,000 Swiss francs ($4,129 USD). Amr Abdelaziz, a lawyer for one of the defendants, said those convicted can appeal but it’s unlikely they will put in the time and resources to do so.

Though the conviction was made by a lower court, Abdelaziz believes it could still have profound implications across the country. He said the court needs to clarify whether liking Facebook comments “should be given the same weight as other forms of speech more commonly cited in defamation cases,” the Guardian reported.

“If the courts want to prosecute people for likes on Facebook, we could easily need to triple the number of judges in this country,” Abdelaziz said. “This could also obviously easily become an assault on the freedom of expression.”

via http://ift.tt/2rvd5ab Tyler Durden

Back in 2015, when the US Dollar started its striking ascent as the world began repricing the Fed’s upcoming tightening, China – whose currency is pegged to the dollar – had no choice but to gradually, or not so gradually, unpeg the Yuan from the world’s best performing currency as otherwise its exports to the rest of the world would plunge. In fact, it was precisely China’s tumbling exports (coupled with ongoing import weakness by the EU) which prompted us to correctly predict that China would devalue its currency, just days ahead of Beijing’s stunning announcement.

As we said on August 8, 2015, “as global trade continues to disintegrate, and as a desperate China finally joins the global currency war, it will have no choice but to devalue next.“

That’s precisely what it did.

Now, nearly two years later, China – in addition to a host of other problems – is facing the opposite issue: a dollar, to which it remains pegged, that has been rapidly declining in value, and is now not only at the lowest level since last October, the DXY is almost exactly where it was when China devalued in the summer of 2015. This may explain the surprpsing spike in Chinese currency volatility in recent days, coming after a period of unexpected calm and stability in the Yuan market. While the catalyst may have been last week’s Moody’s downgrade of China’s credit rating, followed by China’s decision to once again change its Yuan-fixing mechanism, introducing a “counter-cyclical factor”, or a mechanism allowing the PBOC to largely adjust the Yuan rate at will, the surge in the yuan against the dollar has been nothing short of breathtaking, and as we noted earlier today, the Chinese currency just had its biggest 4-day rally against the greenback in 12 years.

There is a fine nuance here: as UBS noted overnight, while the Yuan has strengthened against the USD, it has actually depreciated against the other currencies that make up its basket.

In other words, much of China’s move has been to offset the recent dollar weakness – the inverse of the devaluation move from two years ago – and not to depreciate the Yuan against the world. That is a point Beijing has been desperate to make to locals, in order to avoid another spike in capital outflows which marked much of the Yuan “devaluation” period as residents and traders fear another bout in currency volatility. This, in turn, explains the fireworks that have taken place in the offshore yuan market, where between the soaring CNH overnight deposit and interbank rates, and the record surge in CNH Tomorrow Next Forward points, which jumped to an all time high of 290bps overnight, the PBOC has made it very clear it will not tolerate any “speculative move”, i.e., selling, i.e., capital outflows, in this post-downgrade transition period.

To be sure, the above is just one possible explanation for Beijing’s motivation behind the recent dramatic moves which have kicked Yuan traders out of hibernation on very short notice. There are others, and courtesy of Bloomberg, here are seven theories proposed by various analysts, to explain the Yuan move and what has been going on in China over the past week.

1. Moody’s Shock

China was none too pleased with Moody’s Investors Service’s unexpected credit downgrade, which elicited a stinging rebuke from the finance ministry and a heap of criticism from state media. The yuan has jumped almost 2 percent offshore since the May 24 rating cut, which likely spurred intervention from the authorities and even the changes to the fixing formula, said Jason Daw, head of emerging-market currency strategy at Societe Generale SA.

2. Soothing Markets

Sentiment toward mainland Chinese assets had deteriorated before the Moody’s move, with stock and bond markets whipsawing traders amid Beijing’s deleveraging drive. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Chief Asia Economist Tom Orlik says bolstering the yuan could be part of a broader effort to calm markets amid that crackdown. Also, with a twice-a-decade leadership re-shuffle in the Communist Party due later this year, China’s tolerance for market volatility is low, he said — the state is moving to “put a floor” under markets.

3. Fed Factor

Orlik’s other theory is that the People’s Bank of China is bolstering the yuan pre-emptively, amid prospects of another interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve this month. With evidence Chinese growth may have peaked for 2017, the PBOC may not want to follow suit with its own tightening and is instead turning to other means to support the currency. Fiona Lim, senior currency analyst at Malayan Banking Bhd, subscribes to the Fed idea, saying policy makers may be wanting to build more guidance into the yuan to boost market confidence ahead of a prospective dollar rally. The PBOC didn’t immediately respond to faxed questions about the yuan on Wednesday.

4. Price Mismatch

This one’s for the FX nerds and has gained a lot of traction with currency strategists. Concern over the yuan being “consistently weaker” than the fixing rate at the end of the Chinese trading day triggered the changes to the reference rate, according to Gao Qi, a currency strategist at Scotiabank. What the PBOC viewed as irrational depreciation pressure on the yuan was preventing it from achieving a more “fundamentals-based” closing price, said Tim Condon of ING Groep NV. China tweaked the fixing formula – which also incorporates the closing level – to narrow the gap between this price and the reference rate. SocGen’s Daw is also on board with this theory.

“It shows that China may prefer a stronger currency when the dollar weakens,” said Tommy Xie of Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.

5. No More Weakness

Yuan weakness has been a hot topic since the election of Donald Trump, with the currency’s three-year run of declines spurring claims that China is deliberately sending it lower to make its exports more competitive. While that pressure may have eased, the yuan’s persistent weakness against currencies other than the dollar may be behind the recent bout of strength, said Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd.

“The authorities are not satisfied with the yuan merely remaining stable against the dollar,” they want losses versus a 24-currency basket to be arrested too, Goh said.

A “herd mentality” in markets meant there was a bias toward yuan weakness, said Peter Chia Chih Siong of United Overseas Bank Ltd.

6. Lingering Trump Concerns

While the U.S has backed off some of its more strident criticism of China’s currency policy, Nomura Holdings Inc. analysts said in a May 26 note that they noticed a shift in the yuan’s fixing regime from early April, just before Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The daily rate was coming in stronger than what the analysts who tracked it expected throughout April, fueling speculation of a tweak that was basically confirmed last Friday when the government said they were considering adding the “counter-cyclical adjustment factor” to the fixing formula. U.S. political pressure may be behind China’s quest for a stable yuan, according to Nomura.

7. Belt and Road

China rolled out the blue skies for its Belt and Road summit last month, which saw leaders from around the world descend on Beijing as the government showcased what’s shaping up to be its cornerstone diplomatic initiative. China has been pushing companies to use yuan as part of the global infrastructure spending spree, and the currency is up more than 1 percent onshore since the meeting. Improving the yuan’s prospects and damping market volatility could boost overseas investor appetite for yuan-denominated assets, said Ken Cheung, an Asian currency strategist at Mizuho Bank Ltd. in Hong Kong.

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Canada's Natural Resources Minister Jim Carr just announced C$867 million (around $650 million) in financial supports for softwood lumber producers and the communities where they are based…“Canada is standing up to the U.S., Canada is standing up for Canadians.”

On Wednesday, the Conference Board of Canada released a report saying Canadian softwood producers would pay $1.7 billion in duties a year and cut 2,200 jobs and $700 million in U.S. exports over the next two years before the dispute is settled.

And perhaps on the basis of that report, as Canadian Press reports, the package includes loans and loan guarantees to help cushion the blow for forestry companies and to help them exploring new markets and innovations.

Package includes up to C$605 million in loans and loan guarantees for companies, C$45 million to reach new markets, C$118 million in innovation funding for firms, C$9.5 million funding for those who lose jobs, C$80 million in training, C$10 million for indigenous resource development.

 

The help includes C$260 million to help diversify the market base for Canadian lumber products, improve the efficiency of indigenous forestry initiatives and extend work-sharing agreement limits to minimize layoffs.

 

The money also includes measures to support workers who want to upgrade their skills and transition to a different industry.

 

Cabinet discussed the options for a package last month, but the federal government wanted more input from the provinces via the special working group Carr established in February.

Notably, the government has been careful to characterize the money as a support package, not a bailout, in order to avoid running further afoul of protectionist forces in the United States.

Remember how everyone screamed at Trump that this would send Lumber prices soaring, crush homebuilder margins, send housing costs through the roof? Well…

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