Meet The World’s No.1 Bitcoin Derivatives Trader: “It’s Pure Unlicensed Capitalism”

From his small suburban home in Basingstoke, just west of London, Jay Smith – the No. 1 cryptocurrency trader at online brokerage eToro – looks for reasons to buy more bitcoin and other digital tokens.

The 29-year-old high school dropout and one-time professional video-game player doesn't mind the volatility, as Bloomberg reports, his portfolio is up 295 percent in the past 12 months"I just put in an order for a Tesla, and I don’t even know how to drive…"

However, as Bloomberg uncovers, Smith isn’t playing with just his own cash. More than 9,000 retail investors heed his advice and copy his trades on eToro, which is licensed in Cyprus and by the U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority. It’s a social trading network that enables clients to track their favorite cryptocurrency traders.

In an unregulated, ultravolatile market that few investors understand, eToro injects even more risk into the mix.

The firm is one of several that use contracts for difference, or CFDs, derivatives that allow investors to speculate on the price of cryptocurrencies, offering leverage of 30 to 1 on such bets.

While the U.S. largely prohibits retail investors from trading CFDs, regulators in Europe are only now beginning to address the peril they pose. In June, the European Securities and Markets Authority, the European Union watchdog for capital markets, said it was concerned about the suitability of CFDs and was weighing measures to restrict their use. Combining CFDs with cryptocurrencies is reckless, said Rainer Lenz, chairman of Finance Watch, a Brussels-based public-interest organization, who serves on an advisory group at ESMA.

“We have to put a stop to this,” said Lenz.

 

“This is selling a synthetic instrument on top of another synthetic instrument. This is the highest form of speculation. You just can’t do that to retail investors.”

Iqbal Gandham, head of eToro’s London office denied that mixing CFDs and cryptocurrencies is harmful to retail investors.

“You can’t lose more than you put in,” Gandham said. “And if you don’t know what you’re doing, just copy someone who does.

Which is where Smith comes in.

As Bloomberg details, copy trading is what separates eToro from other CFD firms offering cryptocurrency trading. EToro pays Smith, who’s not an employee, at least 2 percent of the money that follows him. As of Sept. 26, that meant he was earning about $230,000 annually on the $11.5 million in assets held by his 9,143 copiers.

For most of the year, Smith’s followers have been pumped when he livestreams his trading sessions on Twitch, a social media site.

“Feeling cryptocrazy,” one user wrote in the chat box on Sept. 5.

 

“Me cryptodrunk,” replied another.

 

“Just put 10K with you,” said a new follower.

 

Ten days later, with bitcoin and Ethereum having lost more than a third of their value, the mood of his followers had darkened. Smith’s eToro portfolio had skidded more than 10 percent and he’d lost a few hundred copiers. Those sticking with him wanted to know if this was the shakeout everyone, including Smith, had been fearing.

 

Humming to himself as he tapped the keyboard, the trader paused and told them to relax. “Hopefully you can tell from my calm attitude that I’m not in the least bit phased by this,” Smith said. “It will be over in two weeks time, and then the market will start rallying again. Nothing has changed. This just means that the Chinese can’t buy tokens so easily now. All that’s going through my head is buy the dip.”

 

As Smith talked, bitcoin started surging. Over the next few hours, it skyrocketed 30 percent from its low of the day.

 

“Look at it go,” he gushed. “It’s going insane. Let’s buy some more.”

He started buying dozens of Bitcoin at $25 each, it's now at $4250…

Smith rode out the currency’s first big crash in 2013, when it lost half its value in less than three weeks. By early 2017, he’d built a portfolio of coins from Ethereum, Litecoin and other issuers.

As Bloomberg notes, the fusion of derivatives and cryptocurrencies was probably inevitable in a market that appears to be spinning out of control.

“What we are seeing is pure unlicensed capitalism,” said Jon Matonis, a founding director of the Bitcoin Foundation and chairman of Globitex, a cryptocurrency exchange based in Riga, Latvia. “And you just can’t keep up with the market anymore.”

Regulators are scrambling to catch up.

via http://ift.tt/2k8A4W7 Tyler Durden

“F**k Your F**king Freedom Of Speech” – Angry Student Steals MAGA Hat, Demands Victim Be Punished

Authored by Anthony Gockowski via CampusReform.org,

A Trump-supporting student at the University of California, Riverside had his MAGA hat stolen by a peer who demanded that administrators refuse to allow him to continue to wear it.

A video of the incident obtained by Campus Reform shows an enraged female student taking the hat to the school’s Student Life Department as Matthew Vitale fruitlessly attempts to explain to the young woman that the hat is his property.

“So this guy thought it would be a good idea to go into a conference wearing this f***ing hat,” the student who stole the hat states.

 

“Look at the kind of sh*t he’s wearing, You know what this represents? This represents genocide—genocide of a bunch of people.”

Vitale then tries to explain that “you do not get to take other people’s property that is legally theirs in this country,” to which the unidentified thief replies, “man, f*** your laws.”

“Do you have any f***ing conscience?” she goes on to ask, questioning why Vitale would dare to wear a MAGA hat on campus and telling him that his “f***ing freedom of speech is genocide, homeboy.”

“I swear to God I could burn this sh*t. I swear to God I could burn this sh*t,” she continues as several staffers look on.

“Are you people not going to do anything? She is stealing my property,” Vitale pleads, though the altercation went on for several more minutes.

“We will need to return his property to him, but we can talk about…” one university employee begins to explain before being abruptly cut off by the student thief.

“How about we talk about not letting him wear this sh*t on campus?” the thief retorts, while Vitale later tells a growing presence of administrators that “the fact that you people haven’t gotten this back for me is sad and wrong.”

"That’s full of sh*t, because you all are just going to, like, mediate this and make it so like we’re all ok here, freedom of speech, whatever. How about we think about what’s actually going on in this country?” the thief subsequently responds to requests from administrators to “calm down.”

The altercation continued for several minutes until the hat was relinquished to an administrator who then returned it to Vitale, though not before his fellow student got in the last word.

“F*** your f***ing freedom of speech, boy. F***it. F*** it because your freedom of speech is literally killing a lot of people out there. That’s what it is, because you’re out there wearing hats like these that promote laws and legislations that literally kill and murder in the masses people of color,” she stated, before the two eventually walked off with separate mediators.

Campus Reform reached out to the university and Vitale for comment on the matter, and is currently awaiting responses.

via http://ift.tt/2k6Jsd1 Tyler Durden

Florida’s Orange Growers May Never Recover From Hurricane Irma

Hurricane Irma destroyed half of Florida’s citrus crop when it tore through the state earlier this month, as we reported earlier this month. The state’s orange growers at the time described the damage from the storm as the worst they’d seen in their lifetimes, as we reported at the time.

Many of the affected groves of oranges and grapefruits were approaching harvest, too – and their destruction helped send the price of orange concentrate futures rocketing higher.

Unfortunately for Florida’s citrus growers, the damage caused by Irma exacerbated declining output caused by an epidemic of “citrus greening” that’s in its twelfth year. The state’s increasingly exasperated farmers are now facing an unprecedented squeeze, the Wall Street Journal reports, as damage caused by the storm disrupted research into a genetically modified, greening-resistant orange tree.

Farmers believe that modifying orange trees to make them resistant to greening is vital for the long-term survival of one of Florida’s most iconic industries (as WSJ points out, oranges appear on Florida license plates). Greening first emerged in the state back in 2015, and is believed to be caused by tiny disease carrying insects that were first introduced when farmers purchased orange trees from Asia back in 2004.

Against this backdrop is intensifying competition from orange growers in Brazil, who are trying to horn in on the US orange-juice market (most of Florida’s oranges are processed into orange juice, while Oranges grown in California are eaten.

“…Hurricane Irma this month hit a direct blow on Florida’s citrus groves, knocking 50% of developing oranges off trees across the state, according to the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences. Trees with roots already weakened by greening were sitting in 4 feet of water in some of Florida’s southern areas earlier this month. During the storm, nurseries quarantined to keep out the disease lost roofs, and scientific laboratories working on anti-greening projects lost power, potentially compromising research years in the making.

 

A disease called “citrus greening” is pushing Florida’s orange juice industry toward the brink of collapse. Greening starts at the leaves and works its way through the tree like a hardening of the arteries, blocking nutrients and water. Oranges drop off branches unripe and unusable. This year’s crop will likely be the smallest since the 1940s.

 

So miserable is the condition of Florida’s orange industry that farmers are banking on inventing a genetically engineered orange that will be ready for sale—at the earliest—in 2022.”

 

The secret grove—1.5 acres of knee-high trees created with a spinach gene scientists hope can defend against the disease—is down an unmarked road and behind locked gates. Visitors are logged; the company requested photographs taken by a reporter offer no clues to the grove’s location.

 

“We’re a bunch of scientists sitting on 12,000 acres and a giant orange juice plant we need to use,” said Tim Eyrich, vice president of research and commercialization at Southern Gardens Citrus, the company developing the engineered fruit. “If this collapses, all your orange juice comes from Brazil.”

Greening, which affects all citrus fruits, has caused Florida’s orange output to decline by roughly half over the past decade, according to the US Department of Agriculture. Revenue and jobs in the citrus sector are each down by about a third in the past three years. The state’s industry recorded revenue of $9 billion in 2016. Falling production has helped drive a roughly 50% increase in the price of orange juice sold on grocery store shelves. Meanwhile. Brazil has stepped up orange production, threatening to crush the industry in Florida. Brazil’s larger groves and different practices have helped control the spread of greening. The USDA estimates that Brazil’s total output of orange juice will rise 55% this year from last year, with exports rising 28%. Brazil’s production lead over the US has doubled since around 2003.

The situation is growing so dire that Brant Schirard, a citrus grower along Florida’s eastern belt told WSJ that growers are already starting to give up on orange farming, choosing instead to diversify into blueberries, peaches, hops and pineapples, among other crops. Across the state, about 130,000 acres of citrus have been abandoned because of greening. Back in 1977, the state boasted 53 orange juice processing plants. Today there are only seven.

As if the intensifying foreign competition and rampant disease weren’t enough, sales of orange juice have weakened dramatically as Americans seek to avoid sugar, and increasingly don’t sit down for breakfast. Orange-juice sales have declined 48% since 2005.

Even as consumers have become increasingly wary of genetically modified foods, researchers in the state are experimenting with a few different methods to cultivate trees that are immune to greening.

“Since 2009, the USDA has invested more than $400 million to study resistant plants, pesticides and other chemicals to attack the disease.

 

The technology Southern Gardens is using, developed by Texas A&M University, inserts a gene that is a part of the immune system of spinach into the genetic structure of an orange. The modified cells grown in a lab eventually shoot out roots and are planted in soil and develop into trees. The project is among Florida’s most promising efforts for a cure, even though the trees are still five years away from producing fruit.

 

The company is also experimenting with adding a spinach gene to a harmless virus naturally living inside the “phloem”—the vascular system of the tree—without affecting the genes of the tree itself.

 

It’s a yearslong process. Scientists wait for psyllids to come to the grove naturally to infect the trees, and then see if they are resistant to greening. “All it takes is one hurricane and you’re back to square one,” said Michael Rogers, director of the Citrus Research and Education Center at the University of Florida Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences.”

To summarize, farmers may one day look back on Irma as the storm that killed Florida’s citrus industry. But regardless of whether Brazil threatens to undermine domestic producers, it’s nothing that a 35% tariff approved by President Donald Trump – who, we imagine, would be eager to burnish his reputation as a friend to American industry, especially in a crucial swing state like Florida.
 

via http://ift.tt/2fVjvbV Tyler Durden

Stagnation Is Not Just The New Normal – It’s Official Policy

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Japan is a global leader is how to gracefully manage stagnation.

Although our leadership is too polite to say it out loud, they've embraced stagnation as the new quasi-official policy. The reason is tragi-comically obvious: any real reform would threaten the income streams gushing into untouchably powerful self-serving elites and fiefdoms.

In our pay-to-play centralized form of governance, any reform that threatens the skims, privileges and perquisites of existing elites and fiefdoms is immediately squashed, co-opted or watered down.

So the power structure of the status quo has embraced stagnation as a comfortable (except to those on the margins) and controllable descent that avoids the unpleasantness and uncertainty of crisis. We all know that humans quickly habituate to gradual changes in circumstances, and that if the changes are gradual enough, we have difficulty even noticing the erosion.

So wages/salaries stagnate, inflation eats away at the purchasing power of our net income, junk fees, tolls and taxes notch higher by increments too modest to trigger protest, fundamental civil liberties are chipped away one small piece at a time, healthcare costs rise every year like clockwork, and the gap between the bottom 95% and the top 5% widens, as does the gap between the top .1% and the bottom 99.9%, productivity stagnates, the growth rate of new businesses stagnates, but it's all so gradual that we no longer notice except to sigh in resignation.

Japan is a global leader is how to gracefully manage stagnation. Here's how Japan is managing to maintain a comfortable secular stagnation:

Japan's central bank creates a ton of new currency every year, which it uses to buy Japan's government debt/bonds. This keeps interest rates near-zero, so the cost of government borrowing is kept minimal.

This also gives the government a ton of new cash to spend that it doesn't have to raise from additional taxes. The government then spends this "nearly free" money (i.e. deficit spending) to keep the whole stagnating machine glued together.

To keep asset prices comfortably elevated, Japan's central bank creates additional gobs of currency out of thin air every year to buy assets such as stocks and corporate bonds.

It helps if domestic and global investors are willing to buy bonds yielding near-zero, but if not, no problem, the central bank can just create another trillion of new currency and buy all newly issued government bonds. What's another trillion between friends?

There are only two potential spots of bother in this comfy setup:

1. If all this new currency is no longer accepted as having much purchasing power by the rest of the world

2. Inflation arises despite the tender machinations of the central bank and government.

Here are some snapshots of secular stagnation in the U.S.: here's productivity:

New business growth:

Fulltime employment:

*  *  *

If you found value in this content, please join me in seeking solutions by becoming a $1/month patron of my work via patreon.com. Check out both of my new books, Inequality and the Collapse of Privilege ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print) and Why Our Status Quo Failed and Is Beyond Reform ($3.95 Kindle, $8.95 print, $5.95 audiobook) For more, please visit the OTM essentials website.

via http://ift.tt/2yKwDIu Tyler Durden

The Global Housing Bubble Is Biggest In These Cities

Two years ago, when UBS looked at the world’s most expensive housing markets, it found that London and Hong Kong were the only two areas exposed to bubble risk.

What a difference just a couple of years makes, because in the latest report by UBS wealth Management, which compiles the bank’s Global Real Estate Bubble Index, it found that eight of the world’s largest cities are now subject to a massive speculative housing bubble.  And while perpetually low mortgage rates are clearly to blame for the rapid ascent of home prices, Chinese money laundering operations clearly seem to also be playing a role as their favorite markets of Vancouver, Toronto and Sydney all made this year’s list.

Bubble risk seems greatest in Toronto, where it has increased significantly in the last year. Stockholm, Munich, Vancouver, Sydney, London and Hong Kong all remain in risk territory, with Amsterdam joining this group after being overvalued last year. Valuations are stretched in Paris, San Francisco, Los Angeles, Zurich, Frankfurt, Tokyo and Geneva as well. In contrast, property markets in Boston, Singapore, New York and Milan seem fairly valued, while Chicago remains undervalued, just as it was last year.

 

Price bubbles are a regularly recurring phenomenon in property markets. The term “bubble” refers to a substantial and sustained mispricing of an asset, the existence of which cannot be proved unless it bursts. But recurring patterns of property market excesses are observable in the historical data. Typical signs include a decoupling of prices from local incomes and rents, and distortions of the real economy, such as excessive lending and construction activity. The UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index gauges the risk of a property bubble on the basis of such patterns.

As UBS points out, artificially low interest rates in Europe, for example, have kept mortgage payments below their 10-year average despite real prices surging 30% since 2007. 

Falling mortgage rates over the last decade have made buying a home vastly more attractive, which increased average willingness to pay for home ownership. In European cities, for example, the annual usage costs for apartments (mortgage interest payments and amortization) are still below their 10-year average, despite real prices escalating 30% since 2007. In Canada and Australia, too, a large part of the negative impact of higher purchase prices on affordability was cushioned by low mortgage rates.

 

The intuition is that the national and global growth of high-wealth households creates continued excess demand for the best locations. So, as long as supply cannot increase rapidly, prices in the so-called “Superstar cities” are supposed to decouple from rents, incomes and the respective countrywide price level. The superstar narrative has received additional impetus in the last couple of years from a surge in international demand, especially from China, which has crowded out local buyers. An average price growth of almost 20% in the last three years has confirmed the expectations of even the most optimistic investors.

Of course, at some point even artificially low interest rates can’t offset 10%-20% annual real home price increases, which imply a doubling of prices every 4-7 years.  

Annual price-increase rates of 10% correspond to a doubling of house prices every seven years, which is not sustainable. Nevertheless, the fear of missing out on further appreciation predominates among home buyers. After all, the price increases appear rational, for three reasons.

 

First, financing conditions in many cities are now more attractive than ever before. Second, the global increase in wealthy households seemingly creates constant demand for the most attractive residential areas. Third, building activity cannot keep pace with this demand.

 

Expectations tend to be prone to exaggerations in boom phases. The optimistic projections of the trends outlined above create ever-greater price fantasies. However, should sentiment change or interest rates increase, a correction is practically inevitable. In the past, rising interest rates almost always triggered a crash in housing markets. In addition, the dependence of prices on international flows of capital represents an incalculable risk. Plus, once demand fell, even the low growth in supply would no longer provide an anchor.

Meanwhile, the U.S. has managed to avoid UBS’s bubble territory, and a repeat of the 2007 housing crisis, for now…even though markets like San Francisco and Los Angeles look set to give it another try…

via http://ift.tt/2k74aJD Tyler Durden

Republican Senate Candidate Austin Petersen Has His Personal Facebook Page Suspended

Austin Petersen, runner-up in the scrum for the Libertarian Party’s presidential nomination in 2016, is now seeking the Republican Party’s nomination for a Senate seat in Missouri.

He’s always used social networking extensively to communicate with and keep his potential constituents excited. So he feels especially hobbled now that Facebook has suspended his ability to use or update his personal page, for reasons he says he still doesn’t understand. (His professional campaign-oriented page is still active.)

The suspension does not make the page disappear, but for now, Petersen writes in an email interview today, “I cannot post, like, comment, or use my personal page to post to any of the myriad facebook pages I am an admin of.”

Facebook is in the midst of controversy over its potential role in shaping American politics in a non-neutral way, and Petersen wonders in an open letter to founder Mark Zuckerberg whether there might be a political bias involved in his still-mysterious personal suspension.

In that email interview today, Petersen writes that “I was signed out of Facebook on all my devices [last week], and when I signed back in, I received a message saying that my livestream had been the cause of me being banned for 30 days. This was a livestream done on my professional public facing account (Austin Petersen), but it was my personal account (Austin Wade) that got the ban.”

The livestream in question was promoting a raffle giveaway of an AR-15 rifle. Fox News in reporting on Petersen’s ban today thinks it found in Facebook’s posted “community standards” a reason: “The purchase, sale or trade of firearms, ammunition and explosives between private individuals isn’t allowed on Facebook.” (Fox was not able to get Facebook to speak directly about the matter.)

Petersen says that in communication with Hines Digital, a company that helps his campaign with digital strategies, a Facebook official verbally insisted that there was not an inherent problem with giving away that gun, but hinted that an automatic AI may have interpreted a video about a gun as something potentially dangerous and worth immediate takedown. The “automatic” story might not hold water, Petersen says, since “the AI they state takes down videos almost instantaneously, while my video wasn’t taken down until 24 hours after it was created.”

As Petersen wrote in his open letter, “At the same time the block was affected, a Facebook Live video I had posted to my Official Page promoting my campaign’s AR-15 giveaway was removed. A few days later, a Status Update posted to my Profile referencing the same giveaway was also removed.” However, “several posts promoting the giveaway, including paid “Dark Posts,” remain visible on our page.”

Petersen wonders aloud in his open letter to Zuckerberg about the propriety of seemingly arbitrary clampdowns on a political candidate, especially considering that the company’s Chief Operating Officer Sheryl Sandberg has donated “the maximum allowable amount to my opponent” (incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill).

Petersen in his open letter to Zuckerberg writes that:

I’ve been following with interest your recent statements defending Facebook as an unbiased platform “for all ideas.” I hope that’s really true. However, blocking a candidate for the United States Senate for exercising support of the Second Amendment — especially when that candidate is challenging an incumbent favored by members of your board — is cause for concern and worthy of a larger conversation and a public explanation.

He prefaced his letter to Zuckerberg with assurances he would never use his power as a senator, were he to win the office, to “call for legislation to interfere with your ability to run your company, or set guidelines on user’s behavior.”

As of this afternoon, Petersen writes in the emailed interview that “We are still awaiting word from Facebook on if my personal account will be reinstated.”

from Hit & Run http://ift.tt/2x0YW3f
via IFTTT

“A Dangerous Move”: Masoud Barzani Either Burned Or Paved The Way For The Syrian Kurds

Submitted by Elijah Magnier, Middle East based chief international war correspondent for Al Rai Media

The decision of Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) leader Masoud Barzani to hold a referendum for Kurdistan independence will define the future of the Kurds in north-east Syria. The international community (headed by the US with numerous military bases in Syria) is directly concerned with the reactions, verbal threats, and measures announced by the countries with a Kurdish majority and bordering Iraqi Kurdistan, i.e. Turkey, Iran, Syria and Iraq.

So far Tehran, Ankara and Baghdad have reacted harshly to the Iraqi Kurds’ unilateral wish to divide the country, but Iraq and Iran took the first measure by closing their air space to all flights from and to Erbil. Iraq asked all airlines to stop flying over the country and to cease using Erbil airport. Lebanon abided by the Iraqi central government request and halted all flights in and out of Erbil (flights scheduled daily in the normal situation). Egypt and the Emirtes followed Lebanon’s step. Turkey is increasing its threats (“the Kurds will go hungry”) but did not take any practical steps: scheduled flights from Turkey to Erbil are landing and taking off despite what Turkish officials otherwise declared, but above all, its trucks are still travelling backward and forward into the Kurdish territory.


Kurdistan President Masoud Barzani (left) and Iraq PM Haider al-Abadi (right)

Baghdad went a lot further when its Prime Minister Haidar Abadi was given full power by the government and the Parliament to take “all necessary measures”, including the use of military force, to ensure the unity of the country. This is what encouraged Haidar Abadi to give an ultimatum to Erbil to deliver the control of all airports and border crossings to the Federal Police, as stated by the constitution. This means that the central government is expected to increase sanctions against Kurdistan by this coming Friday and may use military force to impose control over all contested areas in the north, north-west and east of the country. Any such move will inevitably spark violence in the country and an immediate revelation of the International community’s real intention towards Erbil and Baghdad. The US and Europe have large business, oil, and military intelligence bases in Kurdistan and would be directly concerned.

A delegation from Kurdistan visited Baghdad a few days before the announcement of the referendum. Iraqi Sources in Baghdad who participated in the meeting reveal to me “the Kurds came with three clear intentions: 1. To show the world the Kurds are trying to find a way out before the referendum. 2. It is important to continue the dialogue and avoid any repressive measures after the referendum.” 3. And most importantly, “the delegation was trying to find out what would be the measures Baghdad may adopt as retaliation for the referendum”. The source believes “there was no attempt to postpone or renounce the call for the referendum: Barzani has decided and is confident of his step”.

So the decision has been made and Barzani was aware of the consequences: personal representatives of the Kurdish leader visited various capitals (Beirut, Tehran, Ankara, Tel Aviv, Baghdad…) to understand what would be the reaction. Kurdish representatives I met were particularly concerned about the position of Hashd al-Sha’bi (the Popular Mobilisation Units – PMU) and their possible intervention. It seems the PMU are the main source of concern because of their reputation (track record) and because they include the battalions of Nineveh (who are involved in the referendum but who reject it).

The following step Baghdad is planning is to ask Erbil to present all its accounts in all official matters and expenses related to Oil Revenue (900,000 barrels per day pumped under KRG of which 600,000 b/d exported via Turkey) and also with reference to Communication Revenue (Erbil’s established Communication Company is under investigation and international arbitration for refusing to pay the Iraqi Ministry of Communication billions of dollars due for 3 years). Baghdad will certainly send forces to all disputed areas to protect these cities and prevent Kurdish forces (Peshmerga) from imposing their control over contested cities. In this state of insecurity for Erbil, the Peshmerga will be on continuous alert on all borders with the rest of Iraq, exhausting Erbil’s already strenuous and indebted finance.

Abadi won’t attack the city of Erbil but will limit the Kurds to a confined territory and will ask the international community to fulfil its commitment to reject the independence of Kurdistan, halting all economic cooperation.

Barzani masked the deterioration of his popularity and the critical financial situation of Kurdistan (due to the corruption of its leaders) and replaced it with a controversial referendum: he managed to brush away from Baghdad the oil and all other revenues already disposed of, and brought most of the Kurds under his umbrella by tickling their dream of an independent state, boosting again his popularity. But the price seems very high.

The Syrian Kurds of the Democratic Union Party (PYD) and its military branch, the People’s Protection Units (YPG and YPJ) will stand beside Erbil and will open their “borders” with Iraq: this in turn will violate the sovereignty of Damascus. But how this would help Erbil or “Rojava”, the “Kurdistan Syria”? Already the Syrian Kurds, in their situation, occupy an embattled position due to their accepting the position of US proxies. And they can’t open sea or air access to Erbil to boost Kurdistan’s economy, let alone compete with what the central government in Baghdad can offer.

The Syrian Kurds are waiting to see how the world will react to Iraqi Kurdistan to draw conclusions about their own next move. The US will have to think carefully what to do with Iraqi Kurdistan before taking any irrevocable step, since all decisions will have repercussions on its tenure in Syria and the occupation of north-east Bilad al-Sham.

Barzani’s only solution – if Turkey abides by its threat and the international community retreats from its previous position in favour of the central government in Baghdad – is to enjoy the referendum and its result: and do nothing at all. However if the Kurdish leader has received enough promises of protection from the international community and Turkey he, in this case, only needs to wait for few more weeks before making a final decision.

via http://ift.tt/2xChcVg Tyler Durden

The US Military’s “Weapon Of The Future” Looks A Lot Like Skynet

Maybe Elon Musk had a point…

The US’s military leaders have agreed on a strategy to guarantee the US military retains its global dominance during the twenty-first century: Connect everything with everything, as DefenseOne describes it. The result? An unimaginably large cephapoloidal nervous system armed with the world’s most advanced weaponry, and in control of all military equipment belonging to the world’s most powerful army.

Sound familiar? It should…

A networked military – an extreme take on the “internet of things” – would connect everything from F-35 jets to the Navy’s destroyers to the armor of the tanks crawling over the land to the devices carried by soldiers – every weapon would be connected.  Every weapon, vehicle, and device connected, sharing data, constantly aware of the presence and state of every other node in a truly global network.

Of course, the development of these “smart” weapons should unnerve Tesla CEO Elon Musk, who has repeatedly warned that AI and machine learning poses a greater threat to the future of the US than North Korea. If not properly regulated, Elon suggested that machines could turn against their human masters.

“Until people see robots going down the street killing people, they don’t know how to react because it seems so ethereal,” he said.

 

“AI is a rare case where I think we need to be proactive in regulation instead of reactive. Because I think by the time we are reactive in AI regulation, it’s too late.”

The Joint Chiefs of Staff described their vision for a completely networked military in the newest iteration of their National Military Strategy, which lays out their plans for building the military's weapon of the future. Ironically, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein said he had based the plan on a certain money-losing electric-car manufacturer. Goldfein was particularly impressed by Tesla’s ability to remotely extend the battery life of vehicles as their owners fled Hurricane Irma earlier this month. 

In recent months, the Joint Chiefs of Staff put together the newest version of their National Military Strategy. Unlike previous ones, it is classified. But executing a strategy requiring buy-in and collaboration across the services. In recent months, at least two of the service chiefs talked openly about the strikingly similar direction that they are taking their forces. Standing before a sea of dark- blue uniforms at a September Air Force Association event in Maryland, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. David Goldfein said he had “refined” his plans for the Air Force after discussions with the Joint Chiefs “as part of the creation of the classified military strategy.”

 

The future for the Air Force? The service needed to be more like a certain electric-car manufacturer.

 

“Every Tesla car is connected to every other Tesla car,” said Goldfein, referring to a presentation by Elon Musk about the ways his firm’s vehicles learn from their collective experience. “If a Tesla is headed down the road and hits a pothole, every Tesla that’s behind it that’s self-driving, it will avoid the pothole, immediately. If you’re driving the car, it automatically adjusts your shocks in case you hit it, too.”

 

Goldfein waxed enthusiastically about how Tesla was able to remotely increase the battery capacity of cars in the U.S. Southeast to facilitate evacuation before the recent hurricanes.

 

“What would the world look like if we connected what we have in that way? If we looked at the world through a lens of a network as opposed to individual platforms, electronic jamming shared immediately, avoided automatically? Every three minutes, a mobility aircraft takes off somewhere on the planet. Platforms are nodes in a network,” the Air Force chief said.

As DefenseOne explains, the idea of a networked military borrows from the  “network centric warfare” concept that first emerged more than a decade ago. However, the concept that military leaders proposed in their latest review is less a strategy for increasing efficiency than a plan to connect all military equipment on a single network. The result would be better coordinated, faster, and more lethal operations in air, land, sea, space, and cyberspace.

The Air Force has begun making broad investments in data sharing. And its experiments with next-generation light tactical attack aircraft are as much about hardware as networks, he said. “Not only what can I buy and what can they do, but more importantly, can they connect? Can they actually share? And can we tie it to a new network that’s based on sharable information that gets me beyond the challenges I have right now in terms of security?” Goldfein said.

The Air Force Science Board is studying how to control a network of military equipment including light attack aircraft, tanks and even unmanned drones. James Chow, the board’s new head, told DefenseOne the study would also consider how to connect to other services.

As DefenseOne explains, although most of the research into the networked military is being conducted by the Air Force, once implemented, any system would likely include weapons from across the military, like Navy destroyers, said Chow.

“Our scope would be in helping the Air Force to think about operations they would be conducting that would incorporate joint sensors and platforms, like destroyers, I think that has to be part of it. And that is within the charter of the study,” Chow  said, adding that the study has “the highest priority level for Air Force leadership.”

The Marines are also looking at tanks that are digitally connected through their armor, according to Lt. Gen. Robert Walsh, who leads Marine Corps Combat Development Command and serves as Deputy Commandant for Combat Development and Integration. Navy leaders have also authorized research into connecting every object on the sea, land, air, space and in cyberspace. This is no exaggeration. Adm. John Richardson, Chief of Naval Operations, said during a Navy expo earlier this year that he’d eventually like to “network everything,” explaining that creating such a system would be crucial to maintaining US military dominance.  

In an amusing aside, DefenseOne notes that, despite the obvious parallels, military leaders detest comparisons between their tech pet projects and anything from the plot of the Terminator franchise.

And while enabling instantaneous communication between military units would undoubtedly improve efficiency and tactical prowess, as Musk as pointed out, these projects should be undertaken cautiously.

via http://ift.tt/2yccQon Tyler Durden

Seven Things Saudi Women Still Can’t Do

Authored by MiddleEastEye's Nadine Dahan via TheAntiMedia.org,

In a decree issued on Tuesday, Saudi King Salman ruled that women will be allowed to drive cars next year, a move which will end the kingdom’s status as the only country in the world where it is forbidden.

Social media users reacted to the news, pointing out the kingdom’s ‘regressive’ guardianship rules, which women in Saudi are still battling.

Saudi’s law against women drivers is one of many controversial laws presenting a web of restrictions to women.

Saudi women are required to get permission from a male family member, sometimes even a younger brother, for some of the most important decisions of her life.

And whilst they might be allowed to drive in eight months’ time, here is a list of things Saudi women still can’t do:

1. Eat freely in public

As part of the kingdom’s dress code, women are required to wear a face veil. This, whilst selectively enforced, means that wherever it is, women must then eat under their face veil.

2. Dress ‘for beauty’

They must cover their hair and bodies. The kingdom’s dress code requires women to wear an ‘abaya’, a dress-like full length cloak.

3. Freely socialize with non-relative males

Women are not free to socialize with men outside of their immediate families, and can even be imprisoned for committing such an offense.

4. Marry whomever they like

There are rulings against Saudi marrying non-Muslim, Shia, or atheist men.

5. Travel

Traveling without a male guardian’s permission is prohibited.

6. Open a bank account

In Saudi Arabia, women still need their husband’s permission before they are allowed to open a bank account.

7. Get a job

Although the government no longer requires a woman to have guardian’s permission in order to work, many employers still demand the permission before hiring.

*  *  *

The struggle for greater women’s rights in the kingdom has been a difficult one, with activists facing arrest for defying the driving ban.

Saudi women have been campaigning for the right to drive since the 1990s, with many women ending up in prison. Among many other women, Manal al-Sharif, an Aramco employee at the time and an activist, dared to drive in eastern Saudi Arabia with Wajiha al-Howeider, a veteran feminist, who recorded the incident for circulation on social media.

In recent months, a model was arrested for wearing a short skirt.

*  *  *

Scholars trying to use Islam as justification

Islamic scholars in the kingdom routinely used religious reasoning to justify the ban, arguing for years that the ban was in accordance with sharia law.

As debate unfolded on social media, many users shared old tweets from scholars, who had previously defended the ban, calling their views ‘shameful’, and asking for them to be removed.

Some activists are now scouring scholars’ twitter accounts, finding evidence of when they previously argued it was Islamically unlawful for women to drive, this twitter user says. But they’re in a race against time with the scholars themselves, some of whom are deleting tweets in which they spoke out against women drivers.

via http://ift.tt/2xO3uOF Tyler Durden

“What Are We Going To Do?” Puerto Rico In Chaos As Cash Runs Out

Most Puerto Ricans haven’t had access to electricity, cell service or financial services for nearly two weeks now. And as we reported yesterday, residents who didn’t stockpile enough cash have been struggling after Hurricane Maria essentially knocked the island’s economy into the 1950s, forcing some to forgo essential supplies – or worse – resort to looting. For those who do have access to working ATMs and banks, long lines have sapped cash reserves as the country has effectively reverted to a "cash only" economy.

Those whose access to cash has been limited – or cut off entirely – are becoming desperate as they start to wonder how they will begin the process of rebuilding their trashed homes – or even where their next meal will come from. As Reuters reports, cash has become just one of many scarce resources on the island (food, medical supplies and gas are also in incredibly short supply).

With electricity and internet down in Yauco, southwestern Puerto Rico, Nancy and Caesar Nieve said they could not access paychecks directly deposited into their bank accounts.

“What are we going to do when we don’t have any cash? The little cash we have, we have to save for gas,” said Nancy.

Cash demand spiked in the first few days after the hurricane as merchants were unable to accept other modes of payment. First BanCorp, one of the island’s largest banks, said that nearly two-thirds of its 48 branches remained closed, and that electronic transactions had resumed at only 25% of its ATMs.

Apparently, word of these privations made its way back to the New York Fed, which has assured the world via the Wall Street Journal that the central bank has plenty of physical cash to keep banks on the island stocked for the forseeable future – lowering the likelihood that anybody will suffer for lack of access to cash. Notably, the WSJ didn't explain where that money was being held, how long supplies are expected to last or how it got there in the first place.  Indeed, the central bank said only that it's "prepared to meet elevated currency demand following the natural disaster." Reuters noted that the central bank ships cash to a depot on the island, and that before the storm it increased the size of its shipments.

As WSJ explains, Puerto Rico is in the New York Fed’s district despite its location in the Caribbean. In times of economic stress or a natural disaster, Fed regional banks plan ahead to make sure area banks have enough cash.

Of course, none of this matters if you can't get to a bank or an ATM. But at least, if they somehow manage to find an open bank branch or working ATM, Puerto Ricans can rest assured that it will be freshly stocked with cash.

But Puerto Ricans might want to hold off before thanking Bill Dudley for his foresight. It’s worth asking exactly how long the island’s cash inventories will last. After all, the storm tore up roads and leveled buildings, potentially complicating deliveries of cash. And with authorities still focusing on search-and-rescue missions and other aspects of the preliminary response, it could take for some areas of the island to return to some semblance of normalcy.  

Furthermore, looting has become increasingly common across the island, increasing the danger that deliveries of cash could be intercepted by bands of robbers.

In a statement, the New York Fed said armored-car services are able to reach banks with cash, and automated teller machines are “once again active.”

With any luck, the recovery effort will soon kick into high gear after President Donald Trump on Thursday suspended the Jones Act, which will allow more ships to assist in the international relief effort. It’s unclear why the administration hesitated to waive the law.

But is the Fed really doing all it can to alleviate the crisis in Puerto Rico? With the bankrupt island nation facing a $30 billion cleanup effort – and potentially more if it’s entire power grid needs to be upgraded – maybe the central bank could help monetize some of these expenditures.

Oh wait…
 

via http://ift.tt/2hA3s6O Tyler Durden