Month: September 2017

It appears that “subdued volatility” is hurting not only bank trading revenues. Two years after CNBC announced that it would no longer rely on Nielsen ratings to measure its daytime audience (just after we reported its viewership had tumbled the most on record), turning to rival Cogent Reports instead, the latest data reveals that the decline for the financial channel has continued, and in the past quarter CNBC delivered 152,000 total daily viewers, its lowest viewership since 1991 for the 28-year-old network.

At the time when CNBC switched away from Nielsen, it complained that the media tracking company failed to track “out of home” viewing in locations such as airports, gyms, restaurants and offices. Well, with all viewers taken into account, the picture, pardon the pun, deteriorated further, and in the past quarter, CNBC delivered its lowest rated quarter since 1991, and in total viewers, had its lowest rated quarter in 22 years, dating back to 1995

And while the reason for CNBC’s ongoing decline is unclear, an unexpected winner has emerged in Fox Business News, which continued its winning streak against CNBC by drawing more viewers for the fourth consecutive quarter, and in the last quarter average 187,000 total viewers across the business day (9:30am-5pm), up 26%, while the same category at CNBC saw a 14% decline to 152,000 total viewers. For the month of September, FBN averaged 195,000 total Business Day viewers, 23% higher than CNBC, which had 158,000 total viewers, which was its second lowest rated month ever.

It may come as a surprise to some, but “Lou Dobbs Tonight” continues to be the top-rated program on business television in both total viewers and in the 25–54-year-old demographic. Furthermore  Dobbs, a longtime CNN anchor before jumping to Fox Business in 2011, has led the way in total viewers on business TV for 57 straight weeks.

With markets hitting new record ignoring natural disasters like Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, and rising tensions with North Korea, FBN closed out the month of September with its 11th monthly win over CNBC. Curiously, CNBC remains the only business channel showing yearly declines, while all other networks have double-digit gains across the board for the year, notably down 14% in Business Day viewers over their performance last year, with 177,000 total viewers. 

We’ll leave it up to readers to come up with the reasons behind CNBC’s chronic decline.

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Authored by Mike Krieger via Liberty Blitzkrieg blog,

But it does me no injury for my neighbor to say there are twenty gods, or no God. It neither picks my pocket nor breaks my leg…Reason and free inquiry are the only effectual agents against error. Give a loose rein to them, they will support the true religion by bringing every false one to their tribunal, to the test of their investigation.

– Thomas Jefferson, Notes on the State of Virginia

Here’s a prediction. Right-wing snowflake culture will expand exponentially in the coming years, and its rise will be cynically and intentionally fueled by Donald Trump himself.

Having proved himself a fake populist on most issues that actually matter, Trump has no choice but to move more enthusiastically into the culture war to deflect away from his obvious betrayal on economic populism and keep his diehard supporters in heat. In other words, he’ll do exactly what mainstream Democrats and Republicans have been doing for decades, which is distract the public and keep it fighting while oligarchs grab what little is left. This works out just fine for billionaire Trump and the Goldman Sachs guys running his administration.

If I’m correct, how should we respond? How do those of us who see a creeping right-wing snowflake culture emerging push back? Rule number one is don’t act like a snowflake in response. Exposing hypocrisy with incisive rational arguments and humor is the best way to push back against right-wing authoritarianism, just like it’s the best way to push back against left-wing authoritarianism. The authoritarian mindset is the enemy of freedom loving people everywhere irrespective of your specific views on health care, taxes, etc. There are far bigger things at risk to us as a people if we allow ourselves to be divided into two separate authoritarian gangs fighting for power.

Unfortunately, this is exactly what seems to be happening with far too many people, and I ask that you not play this dangerous game. People are vulnerable to autocratic cults when they lack real principles based on freedom; when they know what they’re against, but don’t really know what they’re for. Standing for something as empowering and ethical as liberty is what keeps you grounded and sane in the midst of a society-wide mental breakdown.

A perfect example of the emergent right-wing snowflake mindset comes courtesy of Donald Trump himself. In his commentary on NFL protests last Friday in Alabama, the president showed a degree of thin skinned outrage quite reminiscent of the hordes of college cry bullies I’ve criticized so harshly over the years. Let’s revisit that comment, which is what sparked everything that followed.

“Wouldn’t you love to see one of these NFL owners, when somebody disrespects our flag, to say, ‘Get that son of a bitch off the field right now, out, he’s fired!’ You know, some owner is going to do that. He’s gonna say, ‘That guy disrespects our flag, he’s fired.’ And that owner, they don’t know it. They don’t know it. They’re friends of mine, many of them. They don’t know it. They’ll be the most popular person, for a week. They’ll be the most popular person in the country.”

If you take a step back and honestly analyze the emotional sentiment at play in the above rant, you’ll see it’s quite similar to that of a 19 year old Berkley leftist dressed like a ninja hyperventilating about Milo Yiannopoulos giving a speech. For left-wing snowflakes, right-wing trolls is where they draw the line, while for right-wing snowflakes it’s the act of refusing to stand for a song or salute a flag. It’s one thing to have a strong opinion on your own personal behavior, but it’s quite another to demand your fellow citizens behave in the same way you see fit. The mindset of someone obsessed with telling you how to live or behave in your everyday life is the mindset of an authoritarian.

It doesn’t matter if that person is marching with antifa, wearing a MAGA hat or draped in the American flag. The true enemy of freedom is, and always has been, the authoritarian personality. A left-wing snowflake gets triggered by Milo or Ben Shapiro, while a right-wing snowflake gets triggered by a millionaire athlete kneeling during the national anthem. Each side will argue their position is more enlightened, patriotic or whatever, but at the end of the day, if you feel emotionally harmed by a fellow citizen exercising free speeches rights, you should probably start by examining your own demons.

When examining the authoritarian personality one thing becomes clear. Authoritarian types can typically be divided into two camps, leaders and followers. The leaders tend to be opportunistic, power hungry and manipulative. In many cases these people are highly intelligent when it comes to the ways of human nature, which is how they were able to propel themselves into a position of leadership in the first place. Such people typically aren’t even genuinely offended by the taboo act they demonize, but they are instinctive enough to know it can be used to corral and manipulate a certain segment of the population. They only care to express outrage over the action in question to bolster their own power. Donald Trump and his high profile cheerleaders tend to fall into this camp. Creating outrage boosts their careers.

Importantly, it’s the followers of authoritarian leaders who ultimately hold the real power. Without followers, leaders would fail to exist since the power and social capital of the leader depends on a willingness to follow that person. Most people who fall for authoritarian signaling do so out of deep insecurity, which the authoritarian leader instinctively grasps. It is the insecure and ungrounded person who most easily falls prey to the authoritarian leader.

Take the national anthem for example. Why does someone not standing for it bother you so much? If you feel standing is a patriotic gesture that’s your right, but why do you care so much if a fellow citizen fails to see it the exact same way you do? Moreover, what does a patriotic gesture mean if it isn’t voluntary? If Americans are cowered into standing for the anthem out of fear of being deemed unpatriotic, then the gesture itself no longer has any meaning. It merely becomes a ritual act of symbolic dogma, more appropriate for a society like Nazi Germany than the U.S. Republic. The fact so many Americans stand for the national anthem voluntarily is precisely what makes it a powerful gesture.

In this sense, right-wing snowflake culture employs the same tactics as left-wing snowflake culture. Left-wing snowflakes are quick to categorize anyone with a different political opinion as a Nazi in an attempt to shut down political debate via intimidation. Right-wing snowflakes do the same thing with superficial patriotic gestures, and then call those who won’t stand or salute “un-American.” Both tactics are destructive, wrong and the antithesis of a freedom loving person.

Our culture is one of extreme superficiality. This is exactly why so many people lose their minds over NFL players taking a knee, but could never be driven to such burning outrage over a war launched based on falsehoods that killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.

Politicians and oligarchs encourage such superficiality, because if the public can be kept extremely ignorant and stupid then those who actually call the shots and craft the legislation can be left alone to steer society in the way they deem fit without the general public interfering. The end result is the rabble fights about the national anthem, flags and Milo, while the country continues to get looted.

Going forward, I expect Trump to pull many more stunts like the one he did this past Friday. He knows he’s a fraud on the populist issues so many of his voters cared about, so his only option is to rally the troops by further inflaming the culture war. A culture war between right-wing and left-wing snowflakes, each promoting their own brand of authoritarianism. This works just fine for a politician like Trump. His Goldman Sachs advisors can do as they please as a distracted public shrieks over the cultural supremacy of their particular brand of self-indulgent, self-rightous outrage.

So what’s my advice? First of all, don’t become a snowflake. As Martin Luther King, Jr. noted, hate doesn’t drive out hate. Similarly, snowflakes don’t drive out snowflakes. You don’t battle back against left-wing snowflake culture by becoming a right-wing snowflake, or vice versa. If you truly believe in freedom, don’t compromise that core principle just because you got triggered.

Are you a proponent of liberty, or do you want a society based upon whatever type of conformity makes you feel most comfortable? Don’t react based upon emotion, or simply because you want to give the other team a black eye. If you believe in liberty, act like it, and please do not become a snowflake.

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Earlier today Twitter Vice President for Public Policy Colin Crowell met with staff from Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence to discuss how Twitter may have been exploited by sneaky Russian operatives to sway the course of American history by undermining the candidacy of Hillary Clinton. 

Unfortunately, much like Facebook’s disclosure offered up a couple of weeks ago, Twitter apparently underwhelmed Democrats in Congress who continue to relentlessly pursue a “smoking gun” to prove that their perpetual investigations over the past year have been something other than a colossal waste of time. 

Of course, upon reviewing Twitter’s press release on the topic, we can understand why Senator Warner described Twitter’s disclosures today as “deeply disappointing.”  After spending months investigating, Twitter apparently was only able to find 201 accounts (out of roughly 68 million in the U.S., btw) linked to “potentially Russian related” users.  Moreover, and undoubtedly adding to Warner’s frustration, Twitter further noted that not a single one of the 201 accounts “were registered as advertisers on Twitter.”

Of the roughly 450 accounts that Facebook recently shared as a part of their review, we concluded that 22 had corresponding accounts on Twitter. All of those identified accounts had already been or immediately were suspended from Twitter for breaking our rules, most for violating our prohibitions against spam.

 

In addition, from those accounts we found an additional 179 related or linked accounts, and took action on the ones we found in violation of our rules. Neither the original accounts shared by Facebook, nor the additional related accounts we identified, were registered as advertisers on Twitter. However, we continue to investigate these issues, and will take action on anything that violates our Terms of Service.

Just a thought here Mr. Warner, but perhaps Twitter’s disclosures were disappointing not because they are lazy or are trying to conceal the facts…maybe, just maybe, the evidence you covet simply doesn’t exist…just a thought.

 

In any event, in the absence of any other useful disclosures, Twitter decided to inform Congress that they received $274,100 in advertising revenue from media outlet ‘Russia Today’ throughout 2016.  Of course, it’s unclear what that disclosure is intended to imply since even Twitter says the ads were directed at “followers of mainstream media and primarily promoted RT Tweets regarding news stories”…which hardly seems like an attempt to stage a coup…but at least it’s something?

The US intelligence community released a report in January, 2017, highlighting the role that RT (Russia Today), which has strong links to the Russian government, allegedly played in seeking to interfere in the 2016 U.S. election and undermine trust in American democracy. RT has accounts on Twitter and tweets regularly. The open nature of the Twitter platform means this activity was public.

 

Today we proactively shared with committee staff a round-up of ads that three RT accounts (@RT_com, @RT_America, and @ActualidadRT) targeted to the U.S. market in 2016. As of our meetings today we believe this is the complete list from these three accounts within that time frame, but we are continuing to review our internal data and will report back to the committees as we have more to share.

 

Based on our findings thus far, RT spent $274,100 in U.S. ads in 2016.  In that year, the @RT_com, @RT_America, and @ActualidadRT accounts promoted 1,823 Tweets that definitely or potentially targeted the U.S. market. These campaigns were directed at followers of mainstream media and primarily promoted RT Tweets regarding news stories.

That said, if Twitter is suddenly interested in fully disclosing the ad revenue they collected from various media outlets then perhaps they can let us all know how much money the New York Times, Washington Post, CNN, MSBC, etc. spent promoting their news stories on Twitter and what percentage of those stories were pro-Hillary and/or anti-Trump…wouldn’t that disclosure be just as relevant?

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Fitch has downgraded Deutsche Bank to BBB+ from A- due to continued pressure on earnings, combined with concerns over the prolonged implementation of its recovery strategy.

Moody's and S&P remain at A3 and A- respectively (on a like for like rating basis), and while DB bond yields had fallen to the lowest levels since March 2015, the last few weeks have seen risk picking back up (yields now at 2-month wides) and the stock remains near its recent lows…

Full Statement:

Fitch Ratings has downgraded Deutsche Bank AG's (Deutsche Bank) Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) to 'BBB+' from 'A-' and Short-Term IDR to 'F2' from 'F1'. The Outlook on the Long-Term IDR is Stable. At the same time, Fitch has downgraded the bank's Viability Rating (VR) to 'bbb+' from 'a-'. All debt and deposit ratings have also been downgraded by one notch.

The rating actions have been taken in conjunction with Fitch's periodic review of the Global Trading and Universal Banks (GTUB), which comprises 12 large and globally active banking groups.

KEY RATING DRIVERS: IDRS, VR, DCR, DEPOSIT AND SENIOR DEBT RATINGS

The downgrades reflect continued pressure on Deutsche Bank's earnings, combined with prolonged implementation of its strategy. We no longer expect revenue to demonstrate any clear signs of franchise recovery this year and we expect necessary further restructuring costs to continue to erode net income.

Deutsche Bank's strategic restructuring came later than those of most of its GTUB peers'. In addition, the scale and scope of what it has to do plus strategic revisions earlier this year mean that Deutsche Bank has further to go to complete its business restructuring than any of the other GTUBs.

Consequently, we expect it to take some time before the bank will be able to deliver on earnings targets, including a post-tax return on tangible equity (RoTE) of around 10% in a more supportive interest rate environment.

Revenue is suffering from low capital market volatility combined with persistently low interest rates, particularly in Europe, where the bank is strongest. Franchise erosion in capital markets, notably in prime services, in 4Q16 has been reversed to some extent, but it will take time for client demand to return fully in light of intense competition and due to subdued client trading activity given low market volatility. We expect additional restructuring costs from the integration of Deutsche Postbank AG (Postbank) and from further necessary expenses on IT systems.

Positively for the ratings, capitalisation was boosted by the bank's rights issue in April, and the planned IPO of a minority stake in its asset management division together with further asset disposals during the next 12-18 months gives it flexibility to add a further EUR2 billion to common equity. Deutsche Bank's end-June 2017 fully loaded Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio was 14.1%, and the bank's leverage ratio was 3.8%, with management targeting to maintain the CET1 ratio "comfortably above" 13% and achieve a leverage ratio of 4.5%.

The strategic reorientation announced in March towards a more balanced universal banking business model should improve earnings stability, but Fitch will look for evidence that it can achieve healthy profitability out of its large domestic deposit base, and that it can draw on its franchise strengths of a solid German private and corporate customer base extended to global corporate banking and debt capital markets solutions.

Despite notable widening of spreads on unsecured market funding in 2016 and some institutional deposit outflows in 4Q16, we believe that Deutsche Bank retains strong, well-diversified funding by geography, product and customer, and maintains ample liquidity. It reported liquidity reserves of EUR285 billion as at end-June 2017, a large proportion of which were in cash or deposits with major central banks.

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Successful completion of Deutsche Bank's restructuring together with sustainable improvement in earnings could result in an upgrade of the ratings provided risk appetite does not increase or the bank's liquidity profile does not weaken significantly to achieve this. This would demonstrate franchise improvement and would likely require higher market share in targeted markets.

Given the rating level, we do not expect a further downgrade of the ratings unless implementation of the strategic plan meets notable setbacks, particularly around the integration of Postbank. New, substantial litigation or restructuring costs that prevent the bank from retaining capitalisation on target would also be negative for the ratings.

Deutsche Bank's DCRs, deposit and debt ratings are primarily sensitive to changes in the Long-Term IDR. In addition, Deutsche Bank's DCRs, deposit rating and senior preferred debt ratings are sensitive to the amount of subordinated and non-preferred senior debt buffers relative to the recapitalisation amount likely to be needed to restore viability and prevent default on more senior derivative obligations, deposits and structured notes.

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It’s almost surprising how many people have forgotten how, shortly after the election, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg said you’d have to be “crazy” to think that Facebook’s platform – by helping to spread “fake news” – had helped sway the vote in favor of President Donald Trump.

Unfortunately, sanctimonious Democrats are impervious to basic logic when it comes to assessing the overall impact that $100,000 in ad buys had on the election (it's a drop in the bucket in terms of overall spending).

However, in yet another delicious irony tied to the “Russian collusion” narrative, CNN has reported that the top lawyer for the Hillary Clinton campaign had represented Facebook back in 2011 when it petitioned the FEC to grant it a waiver from federal elections laws requiring advertisers to disclose who purchased the ads.

Presumably, such rules would've made it more difficult for the purported Russia-linked agents to mask their affiliations.

Marc Elias, a partner at the D.C.-based Perkins Coie law firm, was part of a legal team that represented Facebook in 2011 as they fought against adding disclosures on political ads on their platform in front of the Federal Election Commission. That battle resulted in a split 3-3 vote on whether to grant the waiver, effectively allowing the company to display the ads without any disclaimers about who paid for them – a policy that Zuckerberg abandoned last week in favor of one that allows for “greater transparency” as he faced a firestorm of criticism from leftists who now apparently believe he’s to blame for the Trump presidency.

According to CNN, the FEC had previously awarded a similar dispensation to  Google, which had made a similar request about political ads running on its platform.

The disclosure supports the notion that Zuckerberg's about-face on the effectiveness of Facebook's political ads was chiefly about avoiding regulations threatened by Sen. Mark Warner, not about the facts.

Marc Elias

“Not only will you have to disclose which page paid for an ad, but we will also make it so you can visit an advertiser's page and see the ads they're currently running to any audience on Facebook,” Zuckerberg said during a livestream after the company announced that it would be sharing the 3,000 questionable ads with Congressional investigators, who in turn will share them with Special Counsel Mueller’s campaign.

While it might not seem important at first, the disclosure of the Elias-Facebook link reaffirms that top executives at Facebook implicitly supported Hillary Clinton’s bid for presidency, and still did nothing to prevent potential “abuses” of the platform by foreign powers…because they simply didn’t believe that ads running on their platform were effective enough to have any kind of lasting impact.

Last year, we reported on an email exchange between Clinton Campaign Manager John Podesta and Facebook COO Sheryl Sandberg where Sandberg confirmed her support for Clinton. Perhaps this is what President Trump was referring to when he tweeted earlier this week that both Facebook and the mainstream media actively worked against him during the campaign.

So, which is it? Does Facebook possess some sinister capacity to sway elections? Or are Facebook ads equivalent to “small items” like buttons and stickers, like Elias had claimed back in 2011?

You’ll have to figure that one out for yourself.  
 

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The DS-160, Online Nonimmigrant Visa Application form, is for temporary travel to the United States.

Consular Officers use the information entered on the DS-160 to process the visa application and, combined with a personal interview, determine an applicant’s eligibility for a nonimmigrant visa.

Here it is. Read carefully before answering…

Source: @Za1d

Coming just 4 days after President Trump unleashed his plan for "enhanced vetting" of immigrants, this tricky question should clear out all those bad hombres.

Very cunning…!

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Authored by Greg Hunter via USAWatchdog.com,

Private investor Gordon Long contends the price of gold will shock the world when it revalues to reflect the massive amount of currency that has been printed globally.

Long explains,

“That is correct, and it won’t be something that is gradual, it will be very abrupt. 

 

The system will break… and the financial markets will freeze up.  When they come out of the other end of that freeze, and it may be a number of weeks because the next crisis will be global and much more complex than 2008.  We could control that with the Federal Reserve . . . and this one you cannot do because you cannot get agreement with all those countries.  Never mind understanding the complexity. 

 

So, when we come out on the other side . . . there will be a massive revaluation in the U.S. dollar. . . .  Gold could jump to $5,000 or $10,000 an ounce or something like that.  . . . It will be massive.

 

They will have to put some stability in the monetary system, and the only way they can do it is having something they cannot print.  This is what has gotten us into this problem.  We have to get back to sound money.  It will have to be gold.  What percentage of backing will determine what the value the gold will be.”

On the value of the U.S. dollar, Long contends,

“Personally, I think the revaluation of the U.S. dollar will be well over 70% devaluation. It doesn’t mean the world is coming to an end.  It just means you have to go through this to reset. 

 

Those who prepare and understand why this is happening and watch for the signals, there’s going to be fortunes transferred.  They are being transferred right now, frankly.  One other big caveat on gold prices going way up, expect the government to tax it like you have never seen before.”

Long says the stock market hitting one all-time high after another, despite all the economic headwinds, shows the public is in a “delusional phase.”

The latest nuclear war threat from North Korea shows the extreme delusion going on, and Long contends,

“This is about as clear of an example as you are going to get.  This is more serious than the Cuban Missile Crisis, and the fact the market has not even blinked during this tells you we no longer know how to price risk.  It’s not being priced correctly. . . . It’s almost pure speculation at this point, and maybe straight out gambling.”

When is it all going to come crashing down? Long predicts,

“I think there is a scare coming this fall.  That scare will allow central banks to start more quantitative easing and other programs.  

 

They will be guaranteeing the markets and guaranteeing assets because they can’t have this pension system collapse, and it’s all in the stock market.  I think we are talking about the spring of next year.” (When it all totally implodes.)

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with investor Gordon Long, founder of MATASII.com.

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Odd day. Low volume, small range in stocks. Good macro. Some questions over just how 'miraculous' Trump's tax plan will be for the middle-class… but the day's trend across FX, bond, and commodities was set early on when Asia closed and dollar-sellers, bond-buyers, and precious-metal-purchasers came back to play…

 

Risk is "Contained"…

 

Tech stocks disappointed today (Nasdaq was red until the panic-buying into the close) as Trannies outperformed…new record for Russell 2000, S&P and Trannies

 

VIX was clobbered again desperate to keep S&P green above 2507.5…

 

Value slightly outperformed Growth today…

 

While most major stock indices ended green today, we note that "high-tax" stocks actually underperformed, wiping out yesterday's exuberance…

 

And while most sectors clung to a slight gain, Retailers were under pressure…

 

And FANG Stocks ended in the red…

 

Treasury yields were mixed on the day with the long-end underperforming…

 

And while US Treasuries stabilize, we note that 10Y JGBs are back near the 'BOJ Panic' 10bps yield limit levels (having unleashed unlimited buying in Nov, Feb, and July to stop the selling pressure)…

 

10Y Treasury yields ended the day unch as buyers arrived once Asia closed…

 

The Dollar Index rolled over today after Asia closed (first down day this week)

 

The question is what happens next?

 

Bitcoin closed marginally lower after yesterday's big day…

 

 

Gold managed to close green (barely) after rallying non-stop from Asia's close…

 

Don't forget that after tonight's close in China, it's Golden Week and we know what happens to gold…

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