Jim Kunstler On “The Devastating Effect Of ‘Multiculturalism'”

Authored by James Howard Kunstler via Kunstler.com,

There’s a lot to complain about in this deranged republic – if it even still is one – but the burdens of being a multimillionaire football player would not be at the top of my list.

Personally, I find it a little peculiar that we have to play the national anthem before any sporting event. All it really shows is how insecure we are as a nation that we have to display our love of country in this obsessive manner.

Same with congressmen and their stupid flag lapel pins, or the flag in front of Denny’s chain restaurants. Are eaters of the “lumberjack slam” so disoriented when they leave the place that they need to be reminded what country they’re in? “Oh, look hon, were in the USA after all….”

What burns my ass is seeing baseball players in camo uniforms, as if they were an extension of the US military. What’s up with that? Is San Diego suddenly a theater of war? And why do US soldiers need to wear camo uniforms when shopping for eyeglasses? There used to be a distinction between battle dress and what you wore the rest of the time, even during a world war. And why on earth is it necessary to fly Air Force fighter jets over the stadium before the Super Bowl? Who authorizes the spend for that? Who are we trying to scare?

Of course, this new gale of ill-feeling stirred up by our intemperate president, the Golden Golem of Greatness, is driven by the oceanic currents of racial animus that are drowning the country more ruinously than the recent spate of hurricanes. The #Take the Knee campaign was already there, and getting hotter, even before Mr. Trump chimed in. At least he didn’t issue the usual sort of vapid nostrum about “diversity” and all of us getting along. In his blunt, blundering way, he may force the nation to clarify exactly what the beef is.

Surely it’s not about the woes of professional athletes. They are representing the grievances of a different realm in black America, perhaps the places they came from, the city ghettos or the rural backwaters of Dixieland, or maybe even boring black suburbs like Prince George County, Maryland. And the lingering question, to be equally blunt, is: how much is non-black America keeping black America down?

I say non-black because there are plenty of other ethnic groups in the mix besides the dwindling majority of “white folks.” I daresay there is as much, perhaps more real animus between Asian-Americans and black Americans than between white and black. But Asian-Americans did not enslave black Africans, so they’re off-the-hook for that original sin.

Mostly what Asian newcomers do is demonstrate that it’s possible to succeed economically and educationally in this country even if you start out with a culture and language completely alien to American ways. This is especially noticeable in places of exacting achievement like Silicon Valley. If anything, Asians complain that they do so well in school that the universities have to tamp down their admission numbers to give other ethnic groups a chance.

There seems to be so much psychological displacement in the feelings between black and white America that it is next to impossible to sort out what to do next.

White Dem-Progs (formerly “liberals”) appear to be so consumed with anxious consternation over the outcome of the long civil rights struggle that they are ready to commit a sort of hara-kiri to atone for their unforgivable cis-whiteness. To some extent, they have attempted to compensate by campaigning for an ever-growing list of other “marginalized” groups in the hopes of showing some positive results for social change — it’s just easier to get significant numbers of homosexuals into the corporate executive suites than to get blacks in there — but the Dem-Progs are still left with the grinding reality of a large, dysfunctional black underclass. They certainly can’t admit that their own contrived “remedies,” such as subsidizing out-of-wedlock births, has anything to do with it, or the devastating effect of “Multiculturalism” on some sort of unifying common culture based on values that everybody can agree on.

Similarly, black America displaces their oppositionality to whatever remains of a national common culture into the memes of “systemic racism and injustice.”

It has evolved insidiously in their own culture since the 1960s, probably (I believe) as a reaction to the anxiety provoked by the civil rights legislation of 1964-65. It’s really about behavior, especially in school. Are you interested in speaking English? Believe me, that would help a lot in this society. Consider this: Ella Fitzgerald was not singing black or white back in the day. She was just singing.

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Hey, Congress: If You Really Want to Help Puerto Rico Recover, Dump the Jones Act

Puerto RicoPuerto Rico is in a dire state after Hurricane Maria. The island has lost all power even as a heat wave bakes it—and it may be months, not days or weeks, before electricity and services are restored. Meanwhile, the place’s agriculture industry has been decimated. Recovery will require the island to import everything from lumber to food to fuel to medical supplies.

Unfortunately, a protectionist law may get in the way. The Jones Act—technically, the Merchant Marine Act of 1920—has had nasty financial impacts on trade to Puerto Rico and many other port cities and islands within the United States and its territories.

The Jones Act requires that all ships traveling between U.S. ports be made, owned, and crewed by Americans. So a ship from another country, or whose owners are from another country, cannot travel from port to port within the United States delivering or picking up goods.

Fortunately the Department of Homeland Security has recognized this problem and has waived the Jones Act for fuel shipping for the time being. But given the tremendous amount of devastation Puerto Rico faces, the costs that are going to be involved in recovering, and the already poor financial state of the island, there has never been a better time to dump the Jones Act entirely.

The Jones Act exists to boost the American shipping industry. It has long contributed to the dramatic costs of shipping to Puerto Rico. A New York Fed report from 2012 shows that it costs twice as much to ship something from a port in the U.S. mainland to Puerto Rico as it does to ship to Jamaica and the Dominican Republic nearby. There are only a handful of Jones Act–compliant options, and that lack of competition allows U.S. shippers to charge much higher prices.

People who think the government should intervene to stop price-gouging during a disaster should know the Jones Act practically facilitates it and makes recovery all the more expensive. Cato Institute Adjunct Scholar Scott Lincicome warned about the consequences in 2015:

During the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, the government…refused to issue Jones Act waivers so foreign vessels could aid in the cleanup and containment. Despite several offers for foreign assistance during an ongoing ecological disaster, the government cited the Jones Act to justify turning them away. Many suspect that the Obama administration was reluctant to go against the pro-Jones Act labor unions (tr. every labor union) he needed to cement his re-election. It’s not a leap to say that such cronyism may have delayed the eventual resolution of the spill.

In response to Puerto Rico’s current crisis, Lincicome tells Reason if a complete repeal is not in the works, then at the very least its rules should be waived for all shipping to Puerto Rico for the foreseeable future, not just for shipping fuel. “You’re looking at a clear and avoidable economic burden being placed on the people of Puerto Rico,” he says.

He adds that the island’s citizens suffer this economic burden every day as it is. It’s only being temporarily halted due to the crisis.

“We’re alleviating that burden because they’re a sympathetic group right now and there’s a spotlight on the tragedy,” Lincicome says. “In the good times or normal times, those costs are considered OK. It’s a really sad state of affairs.”

Lincicome has seen no evidence that the disaster might cause Congress to rethink the law. Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) periodically attempts to get the Jones Act repealed, but nothing comes of it. And opening America’s ports to foreign competition certainly doesn’t seem like something President Donald Trump is likely to embrace.

“In this political environment it’s going to be pretty darned tough to get Republicans on board,” Lincicome says. “Politicians are convinced that protectionism is good politics.”

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8 Reasons Why Bill Blain Is Suddenly Very Worried About Germany

Submitted by Bill Blain of Mint Partners

Blain’s Morning Porridge EXTRA: “WHAT ABOUT THE GERMANS”

It’s unusual for me to write a follow up to the Morning Porridge – but following some conversations and reading about the end of “Peak Merkel”, I fear I’ve considerably underestimated the risks raised by the inconclusive German Election.

We are now facing a period of intense political bargaining, weak government and even the potential of a second German vote.

As a result, the prospects for more volatile European peripheral markets, particularly Greece and Italy, are likely to be exacerbated, and we might well see some of the currency and European stock market froth blow away in coming days as the scale of the “German Problem” becomes clearer.

  • My worst case Germany scenario is a second election early next year, political uncertainty as Mutti Merkel finds herself squeezed out, and a scramble to build a new coalition government in her aftermath.
  • The best case scenario isn’t much better: that Merkel manages to forge a new coalition, but it will be a long drawn out affair and the resulting administration will be vulnerable, weak and fraxious.

These sound like German problems, but they mean the “leader of Europe” is likely to be entirely inward focused in coming months/years.. at a time when the European union will be facing a host of new issues regarding closer union, banking union and reform of the ESM, bailout and QE policies. There will also be new potential crisis points – Italian elections next year, Greece bailout, renewed immigration crisis or a blow-up with Trump. And these are just the known unknowns.

My fears for Germany are as follows:

  • It could take months rather than weeks for the coalition to be agreed. Any Jamaica variant – CDU, Greens and Free Democrats will be weak.  The SDP aren’t going to play in coalition, but could stay neutral outside having learnt (like the UK Liberals) that standing to close to power got them torched.   
  • There is a significant chance we won’t get a coalition deal – which is not being factored by market. Senior German insiders tell me there is a 35% chance of second vote. Some contacts close to the FDs are saying 50%.
  • Even if a new coalition is agreed it’s going to be very left leaning and much weaker than the previous Merkel Christian Democrat Alliance administration. (Even the CDU alliance is under pressure from the increasing strident Bavarian Christian Social Union – who remind me of Theresa May’s new found chums in Northern Ireland.)
  • A new coalition is going to be a fraxious grouping of contradictory bluster.
  • Germany is likely to be far more inward looking under this next administration and therefore less focused on sorting our European problems. Whoever fills the Finance ministry, their default response to any developing crisis in Europe will be ”Nein”!
  • Germans are not used to multiple elections – and a second vote early next year would be massive negative for Merkel herself – she may even have to stand down if coalition looks like falling. That could be massive shock.
  • The coalition parties all feel they will benefit from swings towards them because of the success of the right-wing AFD. That is going to push them both to demand more in negotiations with Merkel, and to fear a second election less. Both the FDs and the Greens are going to push for big concessions and a bigger role in the negotiating phase of the new coalition. They both feel a second election might play to them if folk switch to them in fear of the scale of the AFD vote, plus they see Merkel as damaged goods. They are apparently willing to push it right to the wire and don’t fear a second vote. The Greens and FDs are diametrically opposed on many policies. Common sense will not be a common commodity.
  • This has profound implications for the so-called French/German axis as it slides towards Paris. We are not going to see a new German government “waste time” on issues like closer EU union, European Banking Union, or critical finance issues like reforming ESM or new approaches on QE and Bailout funds. Forget Wiedemann for ECB president, it’s more likely to another Frenchman (Trichet II) – I’m sure its already underway.

In short.. Germany negotiations could get very fraxious while Europe is dragged down in its wake. I doubt the markets have discounted it yet.

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Patriots, Flags, & Referenda – “We’re All Screwed”

Authored by Raul Ilargi Meijer via The Automatic Earth blog,

‘Tis the jolly time of elections, referendums, flags and other democracy-related issues. They are all linked in some way or another, even if that’s not always obvious. Elections, in New Zealand and Germany this weekend, referendums in Catalonia and Kurdistan the coming week, a looming Party Congress in China, quarrels about a flag in the US and then there’s always Brexit.

About China: the Congress is only in October, Xi Jinping looks sure to broaden his powers even more, and it ain’t all that democratic, but we should still follow it, if only because party officials will be either demoted or promoted, and some of them govern more people than most kings, queens, presidents and prime ministers. They say everything’s bigger in Texas, but in China everything really is. Including debt.

New Zealand: the election very early this morning didn’t bring a much hoped for win for Labour, or any clear winner at all, so don’t expect any grand changes in policy. New Zealand won’t wake up till its economy dives and the housing bubble pops.

Germany: Angela Merkel has set up today’s election so that she has no competition. Though she will see the ultra-right AfD enter parliament. Still, her main ‘rival’, alleged left wing Martin Schulz, is a carbon copy of Merkel when it comes to the main issues, i.e. immigration and the EU. An election that is as dull as Angela herself, even though she’ll lose 10% or so. The next one won’t be, guaranteed.

As for the US, no elections there, but another round of big words about nationalism, patriotism and the flag. Donald Trump is well aware that 75% or so of Americans say the flag must be respected, so criticizing people for kneeling instead of standing when the anthem gets played is an easy win for him. No amount of famous athletes is going to change that.

It all doesn’t seem very smart or sophisticated. But then, the US is the only western country I know of that plays the anthem at domestic sports games and has children vow a Pledge of Allegiance to it every single day. Other countries can’t even imagine doing that. They keep their anthems for special occasions. And even then only a few people stand up when it’s played. For most, it’s much ado about nothing but a strip of cotton.

What is perhaps interesting is that a whole list of NFL team owners donated a million dollars to Trump, and now speak out against him and ‘side with their players’, even though not one of them has offered Colin Kaepernick a job since he got fired for going down on one knee. Should I add ‘allegedly’? The only right way to handle the issue would seem to be to talk about why Kaepernick and others do what they do, not that they do it. There’s more than enough division in the country to warrant such talks.

Let Trump invite Kaepernick and Stephen Curry, maybe even Lebron and Stevie Wonder, to the White House with the very intention to talk about that. In the current hostile climate that is not going to happen though, even if Da Donald might want to. There’s a group of people who after 30 years of a deteriorating economy said ‘this is not my country anymore’, and voted for the only -apparent- alternative available, Trump, and another group who then said ‘this is not my president’.

And never the twain shall have a conversation. Somebody better find a way to get them to talk about it, or worse is to come. Far too many Americans identify themselves solely as not being someone else. Yeah, Trump too, but he’s been under constant siege from all sides, and of course he’ll fight back. No, that does not make me a Trump cheerleader, as some have suggested, but what’s happening today threatens to blow up the entire nation, after first having eroded the whole political system. This is a serious risk.

Now spymaster James Clapper is saying again that the whole Russia thing, for which there still is zero proof, could make the election invalid. Well, not without proof, Jimbo. And until you do have that proof, shut up, it’s poisonous (he knows). Instead, go help the 3.5 million literally powerless Americans in Puerto Rico. There are plenty issues to deal with that don’t involve bashing your president. Keep that for later.

(Proposed) referendums (referenda?) in Catalunya and ‘Kurdistan’ raise interesting questions about sovereignty and self determination. We’ll see a lot more of that going forward. I’ve repeatedly mentioned the issue of sovereignty when it comes to Greece, which cannot really be called sovereign anymore because others, foreigners, make all main decisions about its economy.

There may be plenty different definitions of sovereignty, but there can be no doubt it means that a domestic authority has control over a country. That also means that possible changes to that authority can only be made domestically. To come back to Greece briefly, I’m surprised that no constitutional lawyers or scholars have questioned respective governments handing de facto control to ‘outsiders’.

But that can be both deepened and broadened to the decision to join both first the EU, and later the euro. Have all 27 EU countries run these decisions by their constitutional lawyers and highest courts? I’ve never seen an opinion like that from any country. Does a country’s ruling authority have the power to sign away its sovereignty? I would bet in most cases it does not, or the constitution involved was/is either shoddily written or not worth much to begin with.

That any elected US president -or Congress, Senate- would have the power to sell the country to the highest bidder -or any part of it- sounds preposterous, even if I’m no constitutional lawyer or scholar. What countries CAN do, of course, is sign treaties and other agreements concerning defence or trade, among others. But any possible sovereignty violations would always need to be scrutinized at the highest domestically available level of judicial power.

Moreover, I would argue that sovereignty is not something that can be divided, split up or broken into separate parts. You’re either sovereign or you’re not. One country, indivisible, as the US Pledge of Allegiance states (but that doesn’t mean a group of people inside a country can’t seek its own sovereignty).

The ‘composition’ of the EU raises a lot of questions. Many countries have given up their rights to control over their currencies, and therefore their entire economic policies, and though the euro is undoubtedly beneficial in some areas, it has turned out to be a straight-jacket in others, when less sunny economic times arrived.

So what happens if those less sunny times are here to stay? Will countries like Greece continue to bend over for Germany, and for the ECB it controls, or will some of these countries (re-)examine their rights to sovereignty? How is this defined in the EU charter anyway? It has to be there, or many constitutions were violated to begin with when countries signed up. Sovereignty that is not properly defined is meaningless.

Another, non-economic, example concerns the Visegrad countries, Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia. It’s wonderfully ironic that Wikipedia says the Visegrad alliance (est. in 1991) was formed “for the purposes of furthering their European integration”, ironic because one might be tempted to think it does the opposite. The Visegrad countries refuse to be part of the EU’s scheme to resettle refugees.

And Brussels tries to force them to comply with that scheme, with threat after threat. But that too, no matter how one views the issue or where one’s sympathies lie, is in the end a sovereignty issue. And what use is it to force refugees upon a country that doesn’t want them? The bigger question is of course: why were they ever invited into the EU when they think that way, and that way is fundamentally different from that prevalent in Brussels and other member countries?

Or perhaps the even bigger question should be: how do you combine a country’s sovereignty with a political and economic union of nations that must sign away parts of their sovereignty -and therefore all of it, as argued before-. If you ask me, it’s not nearly as easy -let alone legal- as they try to make it look.

Catalunya and ‘Kurdistan’ are good examples – albeit from a different angle- of that same conundrum. A topic closely linked to sovereignty is self-determination. Wikipedia:

The right of people to self-determination is a cardinal principle in modern international law (commonly regarded as a jus cogens rule), binding, as such, on the United Nations as authoritative interpretation of the {UN] Charter’s norms. It states that a people, based on respect for the principle of equal rights and fair equality of opportunity, have the right to freely choose their sovereignty and international political status with no interference.

 

[..] on 11 February 1918 US President Woodrow Wilson stated: “National aspirations must be respected; people may now be dominated and governed only by their own consent.

 

‘Self determination’ is not a mere phrase; it is an imperative principle of action.

The Kurds have been denied that right for a very long time. For reasons related to divide and rule policies in a whole slew of different global powers both in the region and outside of it, and reasons related to oil. After being a major force in the fight against ISIS, and after seeing Turkey get ever more agressive against them -again-, the Kurds have -not for the first time- planned a referendum for a sovereign state. As the UN charter unequivocally says is their right.

The problem is, they want to establish their state on land that other countries claim is theirs. Even if the Kurds have lived there for a long time. And that’s a common theme in most of these ‘events’. Catalunya, Palestina, ‘Kurdistan’, they’re told they can perhaps have independence and sovereignty, but not on land where their people have lived for 1000s of years, because that land ‘belongs to us’.

And holding a referendum is therefore unconstitutional, says Spain, or whatever legal term is thrown out. But if the UN charter makes the international community’s position as clear as it does, how can it contradict a member nation’s constitution? Was that member not paying attention when it signed up to the Charter, or did the UN itself let that one slip?

Catalunya (Catalonia) is the northeast tip of Spain. Its people have long wanted independence and never gotten it. When present day Spain was formed, it was made part of Spain. And now the people want their own nation. It is not hard. But then again it is. We are now one week before October 1, the date the referendum was planned, and the Spanish government has done everything it could and then some to frustrate the referendum, and therefore the will of the people of Catalunya.

As the politicians who inhabit the EU and UN sit by idly, scared silly of burning their fingers. After arresting Catalan politicians and confiscating anything that could be used to hold the referendum, Spain has sent cruise ships full of police to Catalan harbors, and tried to take over control of the Catalan police force. But Catalan politicians and harbor crew have refused to let the ships dock, and Catalan police won’t obey Spanish orders.

It’s starting to look like Spain PM Rajoy wants to provoke a violent Catalan reaction, so he can send in his army and blame Barcelona and environs. What he doesn’t want to understand is that this will be the end of his government, his career, and of any chance Catalunya will remain part of Spain other than in the short term. It feels like Franco’s military, who, don’t forget, only relinquished control some 40 years ago, are still there in spirit if not physically.

For everybody’s sake, we can only hope someone does something to stop Rajoy and whoever’s behind his decisions, because if anyone ever wondered why the Catalans wanted to be independent, after those decisions there can be no question anymore. If he sends in the army, Spain as a whole will be something of the past. But first the referendum result, which was very doubtful all along, has now been settled: nearly all Catalans stand united against Rajoy today.

And Catalans are a mixed people. Many do not have their roots there, or even speak the language. But they will not turn on their friends and neighbors.

Kurdistan’s situation is even a lot more convoluted than Catalunya’s. Borders in the Middle East were drawn more or less at random by the French and British after the fall of the Ottoman Empire nearly 100 years ago. And the Kurds never got their independence, or their country. But now they want it. However, they live spread over 4 different countries, Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria. And some of the land they live on has oil. Lots of it. And the cradle of civilization, between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers.

Just about everyone, including the US, all countries in the region, and the old colonial powers, have declared their resistance to the Kurdish referendum. Getting back to the UN charter et al, isn’t that a curious position? Politicians sign lofty declarations, but when their successors are called upon to uphold them, nobody’s home. And it’s not as if self-determination is such a difficult topic to understand.

The referendum will be held on September 25 in Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region, so not in other Kurdish regions. Therefore only 900,000 people, out of some 35 million Kurds, get to vote. But the question on the ballot will be:

“Do you want the Kurdistan region and the Kurdistani areas outside the region’s administration to become an independent state?”

And that of course means something much more, and much bigger. There’s a ‘Kurdistan’ in Iran, Syria and Turkey as well. Kurds there don’t get to vote, though.

Quoting Bloomberg: “The vote will be held in the three governorates officially ruled by the KRG, as well as in disputed areas currently controlled by Kurdish forces, known as the peshmerga. The Kurds expanded their domain in 2014 when, faced with Islamic State attacks, the Iraqi army deserted the oil-rich city Kirkuk.”

Here’s where the Kurds were living according to the 2014 CIA World Factbook:

As is the case in Catalunya, Iraq’s parliament and top court have declared the vote unconstitutional. That again raises the question: how can a vote violate a country’s constitution if and when that country has signed the UN charter which explicitly defines every people’s right to self-determination? Who’s been asleep when both documents were signed?

How could the UN let countries sign its charter whose constitutions violated that same charter? Have we all just been playing fast and loose all along? Or, more interestingly, what are we all going to do now that we know about this? Are we going to take self-determination away from people, and sign that into a whole new UN charter? Or are we going to make sure the charter is upheld and make countries change their constitutions to comply with it?

There is a third option (very much in favor): to not do anything. But that gets more dangerous all the time. The days that people could just be ignored are gone. Social media have probably played a large role in that. And so have changing power relationships.

The EU is blowing itself up through increasing calls for more Europe just as people want less. I’ve said it often before: centralization stops when and where economic growth does. And despite all the creative accounting we see, economic growth is definitely gone in Europe. Just ask Greece, Spain. Ask the people, not the politicians. People will only accept their decisions being made by far away ‘leaders’ if they perceive them as beneficial to their lives, the lives of their children.

Those days are gone, no matter the propaganda. That’s true all over Europe, and it’s true all across the US. The refusal by incumbent powers to recognize this, admit to it, is what gives us the likes of Trump and Brexit and countless other challengers. That Marine Le Pen and others have failed to date doesn’t mean the status quo wins; others will follow. In that vein I was surprised to see Yanis Varoufakis, whom I hold in very great esteem, declare in name of his DiEM 25 movement that:

“I am not taking sides on whether Catalonia should be independent or not” and “What we’re promoting in DiEM25 would solve the problem. We want a real European Union that becomes a single jurisdiction, a country if you want to call it that. In that scenario, it doesn’t matter if Catalonia is part of Spain!”

Europe will not be one country. Nor should it want to be. Europe has 1000 different ways to work together, and the EU has been an utter failure at that. While it has done a ton of good, it is being -predictably- destroyed by the power politics at its top levels. Nobody ever told Europeans that they would wind up living as German provinces. But that is what they are.

As Varoufakis himself makes abundantly clear is his book Adults in the Room. That’s why Germans have no real choice in today’s election: they have such utter control of the EU they would be crazy to vote against it. But at the same time, the rest of the ‘Union’ would be crazy to let them hold that power.

And I know that DiEM25 wants to change and reform the EU, but how will they do that knowing they need Germany, more than all other countries, to accomplish it, as Germany is sitting so pretty? Calls for a one-country Europe seem at the very least irresponsibly premature. That’s very far from reality. First things first. No cheating. You can’t say it doesn’t matter what happen to the Catalans today because ‘we’ have bigger plans for tomorrow. That means abandoning them. That’s not a new Europe: that’s what they already have today.

As for ‘Kurdistan’, what can we do but hope and pray? Hope that the old European colonial powers, as well as Turkey, Iraq and Iran, plus Russia and China, live up to the UN Charter they signed, and let the Kurds show they can be a force for peace in the region, which needs one so badly?! They have shown in no uncertain terms they can defend themselves, and their land, against anyone who threatens them. The Kurdish women army, YPJ, is all you need to know when it comes to that. They are the bravest amongst us.

If they had their own country, they would continue to do just that, and better. Which just goes to show that nationalism and patriotism are not of necessity negative emotions. It gives people an identity. Which is exactly why brighter heads than the present ones put the right to self-determination in the UN Charter, at a time, 1945, when the world had seen indescribable destruction.

There’s a lesson there. That we seem to have forgotten already. And now have to learn all over again. Through Colin Kaepernick, through the unbelievable Kurdish women’s YPG army, though the streets of Barcelona. Our world is screwed up, and we need to unscrew it.

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Violent Crime Rose in 2016 for the Second Year in a Row

Violent crime in the U.S. rose again in 2016 for the second year in a row, according to national crime statistics released by the FBI today.

The FBI’s Uniform Crime Report program, which collects crime data from police departments across the country, found that violent crime increased by 4.1 percent in 2016, along with an 8.6 percent increase in homicides. Those numbers come after a 3.9 percent and 10.8 percent rise in violent crime and homicides in 2015, respectively. Property crime, meanwhile, fell for the 14th year in a row, dropping by 1.4 percent.

Violent crime, like crime in general, had been steadily trending downward since the early 1990s, but Monday’s report marks the first time since 2005 and 2006 that the U.S. has experienced a consecutive year-to-year rise in violent crime.

Warnings of out-of-control crime and violent criminals roaming the streets were a staple of Donald Trump’s populist campaign rhetoric last year, and Attorney General Jeff Sessions has warned of rising crime in many of his public speeches. The Trump administration has pushed back against a growing bipartisan consensus that disfavors the so-called “tough-on-crime” policies that dominated the 1980s and ’90s, instead vowing to give police and prosecutors the maximum possible leeway to fight crime.

“For the sake of all Americans, we must confront and turn back the rising tide of violent crime. And we must do it together,” Sessions said in a statement on the new crime numbers. “The Department of Justice is committed to working with our state, local, and tribal partners across the country to deter violent crime, dismantle criminal organizations and gangs, stop the scourge of drug trafficking, and send a strong message to criminals that we will not surrender our communities to lawlessness and violence.”

On a conference call with reporters Monday, several criminal experts said that, while the continued increase in violent crime was significant and worrisome, current violent crime rates are still below those of 2008 and far below the peak rate of 1991.

Adam Gelb, director of the Public Safety Performance Project at the Pew Charitable Trusts, pointed out that only five years since 1971 have had lower violent crime rates than 2016. In 2005 and 2006, the U.S. also experienced a similar two-year rise in violent crime. “There were dire warnings from police, only to have crime then continue to drop,” Gelb said.

The Brennan Center for Justice released a report this month predicting that, if current preliminary numbers hold steady, 2017 will indeed see a decrease in both overall and violent crime.

John Pfaff, a professor at Fordham University Law School, cautioned that crime is a complex, geographically concentrated phenomena, and that it can’t simply be attributed to how many people are or aren’t being sent to prison.

He noted that Chicago, which has been experiencing an unprecedented spike in murders over the past several years, was responsible for about 20 percent of the national net increase in homicides. However, half of Chicago’s rise in murders were confined to five neighborhoods with 9 percent of the city’s population. “So in other words,” Pfaff said, “five neighborhoods in Chicago explain 10 percent of the national increase in homicide rates.”

“Crime is not just a function of policing and prisons,” Pfaff continued. “Over half of the drop in prison populations nationwide since 2010 has just happened in California, and in California, while they’re home to 12 percent of the population, they only contributed to 5 percent of the murders this year.”

Likewise, New York City’s violent crime rate has continued to hold steady or drop, even though it has overhauled many of its more aggressive policing practices in recent years, leading Sessions to call the city “soft on crime.” In a statement, New York City Police Commissioner James P. O’Neill credited the NYPD’s tactics with the crime drop: “Today’s new data confirms what we in New York City have known for years now: Enhanced training, improved tactics, and constructive engagement with the public we serve all lead to long-term reductions in crime.”

While the top line numbers of the FBI report will give pundits and public officials plenty to debate, the details will resist any sweeping explanations.

“Our broad, grand theories to explain what happened this year will almost inevitably be wrong,” Pfaff said, “because they won’t be looking nearly as granular as they should.”

Bonus Reason link: Read my colleague Elizabeth Nolan Brown on how the UCR data shows human trafficking arrests are almost nonexistent in most states.

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Why We Need Less Debt, and Fast: New at Reason

It was big news when our national debt recently passed the $20 trillion mark. What’s less understood is exactly why having such a massive debt is a bad thing. The short answer is that too much debt slows economic growth, reducing living standards.

Barack Obama, and George W. Bush were leaders who lacked the integrity to do what’s best for the country by keeping spending and debt in line. President Donald Trump also shows no interest in explaining to the public how runaway debt chokes off the future. That’s a failure which we’ll all be paying for for a very long time to come.

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What Wall Street Thinks Of Trump’s Tax Plan

Over the weekend, several key aspects of Trump’s tax plan were leaked, including a reduction in the tax rate for the wealthiest Americans to 35% as well as plans to cut the top tax rate for “pass through” businesses from 39.6% to 25%. While these would be welcome developments for US corporations, they would be relevant only if confirmed in the coming days as the “fluid” Trump tax plan is formalized and, of course, if it were to pass the Senate, which may very well not happen. As Rafiki Capital’s Steven Englander writes, “the inability to find 50 Republican Senators who can agree on anything and the diminished authority of the tax reform Gang of Six plus the sense that even at this late stage the Six are not on the same page on tax reform versus tax stimulus makes it hard to take the ‘over’ on significant tax reform.”

As Deutsche Bank also notes over the weekend, “regular legislation would take 60 votes in the Senate and bipartisan support and allow for proper tax reform. However this is seemingly impossible. The  reality is that any changes will likely be made through the reconciliation process. However this first requires a budget being passed by Congress which hasn’t been achieved since the Democratic super-majority in 2009-10.

Which is why despite the recent surge in market sentiment that Trump’s tax reform is suddenly far more likely, analysts caution investors not to expect too much detail with the release of President Donald Trump’s tax framework this week, let alone passage. As Bloomberg summarizes, the rollout may be designed to show Trump and Congress are unified and committed to aggressive tax reform, Evercore ISI says, while “distractions” (including NFL protests and healthcare repeal) may be helping, as the “Big Six” negotiators stay out of the spotlight, according to Height Securities. 

Below, courtesy of Bloomberg, is a summary of several notable sellside views on what to expect over the coming days as the Trump administration aggressively rolls out tax reform:

EVERCORE ISI (Terry Haines)

  • Expects Big Six (Treasury Secty Steven Mnuchin, NEC’s Gary Cohn, Rep. Paul Ryan, Sen. Mitch McConnell, congressional tax-writing cmte chairmen) to offer top-line proposals aimed at demonstrating the Trump Administration and congressional leaders are unified, and committed to aggressive tax reform and quick legislative action
  • Sees goals of boosting “market excitement” about tax prospects, raising pressure on Congress to expedite FY2018 budget resolution passage (enabling congressional Republicans to achieve tax reform via streamlined budget process requiring simple majorities)
  • Still sees reform as 50% likely; odds rise to 70% if Congress adopts FY2018 budget resolution expediting tax legislation by Thanksgiving

HEIGHT SECURITIES (Stefanie Miller)

  • Expects latest tax reform draft will be very light on detail, will continue to be billed as process starting point
  • “Distractions” – including ACA repeal, NFL protests, updated travel ban restrictions, and Jared Kushner’s use of private emails – are probably helpful to Big Six, other congressional Republicans as they try to control tax plan messaging
  • Distractions at this stage of tax reform may cut the amount of time proponents need to defend their blueprint; Height notes there are divisive components of tax reform even within the Republican Party, framers probably appreciate not holding the spotlight as they work through intra-party negotiations

COMPASS POINT (Isaac Boltansky)

  • Cautions against expecting too much granularity; views release as opportunity to assess Big Six talks so far, and to gauge severity of opposition
  • Watching: Whether mortgage industry becomes more forceful in opposing lesser tax benefit; whether expiring expensing regime will be enough for business interests; how rank-and-file House Republicans respond
  • Still believes odds favor passage of tax package in 1H 2018 ahead of midterm elections

KBW (Brian Gardner)

  • Tax reform outline might disappoint some investors who are looking for more details, specifics
  • May offer some detail on plan for lower corporate, individual tax rates

COWEN (Jaret Seiberg)

  • Still sees best shot for tax reform coming next year as lawmakers increasingly worry about re-election
  • Focus on potential ways to help pay for tax cuts: Roth-ification, reduction of the mortgage interest deduction, elimination of ability of corporations to deduct interest as a business expense

BEACON POLICY ADVISORS

  • Big Six framework release, other tax-reform events should be seen as more of a “messaging effort” than truly substantive, concrete proposal
  • No signs release will change Orrin Hatch’s plans for methodical, bottom-up process of shepherding tax legislation through his cmte
  • Sees little new ground being made on tax pay-fors

Horizon Investments (Greg Valliere)

  • Exceptionally difficult” week looms for Trump, with issues including healthcare reform, taxes, Alabama, North Korea
  • Healthcare loss would complicate tax reform
  • Treasury Scty Steven Mnuchin is “a bright and wealthy man who knows little about tax policy and getting legislation enacted”; the higher he sets the bar, the more the administration will disappoint investors

Source: Bloomberg

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Is Minnesota’s Indefinite Detention of Sex Offenders Punitive or Therapeutic?

Since 1994 the Minnesota Sex Offender Program (MSOP) has confined more than 700 people who were deemed too “sexually dangerous” to release after completing their prison sentences. Ostensibly they are no longer inmates but patients, undergoing treatment aimed at reducing their risk of recidivism. Yet in more than two decades, only one of these involuntary “patients” has been declared well enough to be released, and that did not happen until August 2016. Today the U.S. Supreme Court is considering whether to hear a challenge to this system of indefinite preventive detention, which effectively imposes life sentences on people who have already been punished for their crimes.

The plaintiffs in the case, Karsjens v. Piper, include MSOP detainees who have completed their treatment yet remain behind bars because the program does not conduct regular assessments to determine whether offenders still meet the criteria for commitment. “In effect, Minnesota’s failure to implement adequate periodic reviews establishes a death-in-confinement sentence without any of the safeguards of the criminal legal system,” says the petition asking the Supreme Court to hear the case. “Hundreds of civilly committed people in Minnesota have never received a risk assessment, and hundreds more have risk assessments that are outdated and therefore invalid….The MSOP knows, for some of the people in custody, that they in fact satisfy discharge criteria, but the MSOP takes no action to facilitate their discharge.” As one of the plaintiffs put it in 2015, “The only way to get out is to die.”

The Supreme Court has upheld post-prison commitment of sex offenders, accepting the pseudoscientific claim that a propensity to commit a certain type of crime is an illness that mental health professionals can cure (in this case, an illness defined by state legislators rather than psychiatrists). But the Court has warned that imposing punishment in the guise of treatment is a violation of due process. “If the civil system is used simply to impose punishment after the State makes an improvident plea bargain on the criminal side, then it is not performing its proper function,” Justice Anthony Kennedy wrote for the majority in the 1997 case Kansas v. Hendricks. “[If] civil confinement were to become a mechanism for retribution or general deterrence…our precedents would not suffice to validate it.”

In a brief supporting the Karsjens plaintiffs, the Cato Insitute and the Reason Foundation (which publishes this website) argue that the MSOP’s track record and lack of systematic assessments show it is punitive rather than therapeutic. “The MSOP is a regime of indefinite detention that provides no hope of release,” the Cato/Reason brief says. “The most powerful proof that the MSOP’s treatment approach is not meaningful is the fact that some individuals who successfully completed treatment never earned release and were never discharged….It is functionally impossible to distinguish between Minnesota’s civil commitment for sex offenders and imprisonment….If any SOCC [sex offender civil commitment] scheme is punitive, Minnesota’s is.”

U.S. District Judge Donovan Frank agreed with this critique in 2015, but last year his decision was overturned by the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 8th Circuit. Remarkably, the 8th Circuit declared that Frank had erred in assuming that freedom from confinement qualifies as a fundamental right, saying that is not true for “persons who pose a significant danger to themselves or others.” Yet the main issue in this case is Minnesota’s lack of interest in whether the plaintiffs actually fall into that category. In fact, the state admits that at least some of them don’t.

As the plaintiffs note in their petition, the 8th Circuit conflated two distinct questions: whether the right not to be locked in a cage for the rest of your life counts as a fundamental liberty interest, which no one can reasonably deny, and whether Minnesota is justified in depriving the plaintiffs of that right. That trick was crucial, because it allowed the appeals court to avoid subjecting the MSOP to “strict scrutiny,” which requires that a policy be narrowly tailored to serve a compelling government interest, and instead use the much more forgiving “rational basis” test.

“By collapsing the nature of the right and the compelling state interest inquiries,” the plaintiffs observe, “the circuit court created constitutionally impermissible sub-classes of rights holders—those who have a fundamental right to liberty and those who do not. This approach means that any group perceived as potentially dangerous to the public—the mentally ill, people with alien status, or those previously convicted of chronic criminal behavior, for example—could find themselves with diminished constitutional rights when facing civil commitment or detention. Such a rule of law cannot stand under our Constitution, especially when its subjects are some of the most politically powerless, despised, and vulnerable among us.”

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Ron Paul: “How To End The Korea Crisis”

Authored by Ron Paul via The Ron Paul Institute for Peace & Prosperity,

The descent of US/North Korea “crisis” to the level of schoolyard taunts should be remembered as one of the most bizarre, dangerous, and disgraceful chapters in US foreign policy history.

President Trump, who holds the lives of millions of Koreans and Americans in his hands, has taken to calling the North Korean dictator “rocket man on a suicide mission.”

Why? To goad him into launching some sort of action to provoke an American response? Maybe the US president is not even going to wait for that.

We remember from the Tonkin Gulf false flag that the provocation doesn’t even need to be real.

We are in extremely dangerous territory and Congress for the most part either remains asleep or is cheering on the sabre-rattling.

Now we have North Korean threats to detonate hydrogen bombs over the Pacific Ocean and US threats to “totally destroy” the country.

We are told that North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un is a “madman.” That’s just what they said about Saddam, Gaddafi, Assad, and everyone else the neocons target for US military action. We don’t need to be fans of North Korea to be skeptical of the war propaganda delivered by the mainstream media to the benefit of the neocons and the military industrial complex.

Where are the cooler heads in Washington to tone down this war footing?

Making matters worse, there is very little understanding of the history of the conflict. The US spends more on its military than the next ten or so countries combined, with thousands of nuclear weapons that can destroy the world many times over. Nearly 70 years ago a US-led attack on Korea led to mass destruction and the death of nearly 30 percent of the North Korean population. That war has not yet ended.

Why hasn’t a peace treaty been signed? Newly-elected South Korean president Moon Jae-in has proposed direct negotiations with North Korea leading to a peace treaty. The US does not favor such a bilateral process. In fact, the US laughed off a perfectly sensible offer made by the Russians and Chinese, with the agreement of the North Koreans, for a “double freeze” – the North Koreans would suspend missile launches if the US and South Korea suspend military exercises aimed at the overthrow of the North Korean government.

So where are there cooler heads? Encouragingly, they are to be found in South Korea, which would surely suffer massively should a war break out. While US Ambassador to the United Nations, Nikki Haley, was bragging that the new UN sanctions against North Korea would result in a near-complete blockade of the country (an act of war), the South Korean government did something last week that shocked the world: it announced an eight million dollar humanitarian aid package for pregnant mothers and infant children in North Korea. The US and its allies are furious over the move, but how could anyone claim the mantle of “humanitarianism” while imposing sanctions that aim at starving civilians until they attempt an overthrow of their government?

Here’s how to solve the seven-decade old crisis:

pull all US troops out of North Korea;

 

end all military exercises on the North Korean border;

 

encourage direct talks between the North and South and offer to host or observe them with an international delegation including the Russians and Chinese, which are after all Korea’s neighbors.

The schoolyard insults back and forth between Donald Trump and Kim Jong-Un are not funny. They are in fact an insult to all of the rest of us!

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“Sunday Night Football” Ratings Slide Following Day Of Player Protests

As it turns out, President Donald Trump may have been on to something when he said NFL players were turning off viewers by kneeling during the National Anthem. As Deadline reports, both the NBC and NFL took a hit during Sunday Night Football last night when ratings dropped, as some Americans appeared to heed Trump’s call to boycott the NFL unless owners agree to fire or suspend players who don’t stand during the anthem.

In metered market numbers, the primetime match-up between the 27-10 winning Washington Redskins and the Oakland Raiders snared an 11.6/20. That’s the worst rating for SNF so far this season, marking an 8% dip from the early numbers of last week’s Atlanta Falcon’s 34-23 win over the Green Bay Packers, and a 10% dip from the same week last year.

The Redskins linked arms last night, while nearly every single Raiders player sat on the bench during the anthem, Deadline says.

Here are the top markets for last night’s SNF:

D.C.- 23.3/40

Richmond – 22.1/33

Norfolk – 19.8/31

Sacramento – 17.5/32

S.F./Oakland – 17.2/35

New Orleans – 17.2/24

Denver – 16.2/27

Buffalo- 15.4/24

Kansas City – 14.8/24

Las Vegas – 14.5/23

However, not every network saw a ratings dip. Bloomberg reports that CBS, whose Sunday night games included a closely fought matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Cincinnati Bengals, experienced a small ratings bump, probably because the close score drew in more viewers. Fox hasn’t yet released viewership numbers for its NFL games on Sunday. Overnight ratings are subject to change when final numbers are released later Monday. The New York Times and other mainstream media had discounted Trump's claim, tweeted over the weekend, that the NFL's ratings had suffered because of the protests, despite a survey showing that many fans reported tuning out last year because of the protests.

Trump criticized the NFL Friday night during a rally in Alabama, where he called players who kneel for the anthem "a son of a b***H" and said any team owner who fired or suspended the protesting players would become "the most popular person in the country – at least for a week." His comments drew rebukes from NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell, as well as Patriots owner Robert Kraft and former Buffalo Bills and New York Jets head coach Rex Ryan.

The trend of kneeling for the anthem started last year when no- unemployed quarterback and then San Francisco 49er Colin Kaepernick refused to stand, saying he refused to honor the US because of institutionalized racism. Since then, a number of NFL players have publicly protested police brutality and racial injustice by not standing for the National Anthem.

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